Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Weather Rally; Corn, Soybeans Steady While Eyeing Weather
Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and the Black Sea. Until a few weeks ago, there were few doubts about the 2024 crop being able to supply the expected demand, but now reduced yi...
Market Commentary: Some Reversals, Some Not
Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat remains on a tear with a fifth trading session closing higher. The mood around wheat sees supply concerns developing in North America and in t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may leave Russia without proper genetics for this spring’s planting campaign. While small grains are available due to long term domestic see...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 22 April)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Early-morning frosts were reported across Poland down to France as crops are reaching growth stages that are sensitive to cold. It’s too early to say whether the cold snap will dent yields, but the 2024 crop continues to face weather challenges. Tunisia pur...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat from the 2024/25 campaign remains a topic of discussion in Argentina, with conflicting views regarding the area to be sown. The reality of the situation is that wheat production margins have been improving in recent weeks due to the improvements in futures prices, but also due...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains to Close Week; Wheat Firms on Bullish News
The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supportive development in the IGC’s lower 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast, dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains, and smaller Russian 2024...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Based on futures’ price action late last week and early this week, one would be expecting funds to have been net sellers in the major ag commodities, and that’s exactly what happened. Funds expanded their short soybean position by some 30,000 contracts, making it a new five-year low...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.505/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $343.2/short ton, up $5.8 fro...
Oilseed Highlights: Still Softly Descending
The Market Soybeans sharply rebounded on Friday after hitting a one month low the day before, likely on short covering. For the week, May soybeans lost 16.25 cents (-2 percent) and November soybeans gave up 15.25 cents. The latter new crop contract still carries an 11 cent premium over the soon...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 5-11, 2024 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 93,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 487,800 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week, but unchanged fro...
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall while Oilseeds Gain; Oil Falls on U.S. Stocks, Chinese Economy
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures dropping amid fund selling due to a stronger U.S. dollar and easing Russian FOB offers while corn drifted lower in lackluster, low-volume trade. While the grains were on the defensive, the soy complex found some support from technically related...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.495/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338.7/short ton, up $3.4 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Weather Rally; Corn, Soybeans Steady While Eyeing Weather
Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and the Black Sea. Until a few weeks ago, there were few doubts about the 2024 crop being able to supply the expected demand, but now reduced yi...
Market Commentary: Some Reversals, Some Not
Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat remains on a tear with a fifth trading session closing higher. The mood around wheat sees supply concerns developing in North America and in t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may leave Russia without proper genetics for this spring’s planting campaign. While small grains are available due to long term domestic see...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 22 April)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Early-morning frosts were reported across Poland down to France as crops are reaching growth stages that are sensitive to cold. It’s too early to say whether the cold snap will dent yields, but the 2024 crop continues to face weather challenges. Tunisia pur...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat from the 2024/25 campaign remains a topic of discussion in Argentina, with conflicting views regarding the area to be sown. The reality of the situation is that wheat production margins have been improving in recent weeks due to the improvements in futures prices, but also due...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains to Close Week; Wheat Firms on Bullish News
The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supportive development in the IGC’s lower 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast, dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains, and smaller Russian 2024...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Based on futures’ price action late last week and early this week, one would be expecting funds to have been net sellers in the major ag commodities, and that’s exactly what happened. Funds expanded their short soybean position by some 30,000 contracts, making it a new five-year low...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.505/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $343.2/short ton, up $5.8 fro...
Oilseed Highlights: Still Softly Descending
The Market Soybeans sharply rebounded on Friday after hitting a one month low the day before, likely on short covering. For the week, May soybeans lost 16.25 cents (-2 percent) and November soybeans gave up 15.25 cents. The latter new crop contract still carries an 11 cent premium over the soon...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 5-11, 2024 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 93,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 487,800 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week, but unchanged fro...
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall while Oilseeds Gain; Oil Falls on U.S. Stocks, Chinese Economy
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures dropping amid fund selling due to a stronger U.S. dollar and easing Russian FOB offers while corn drifted lower in lackluster, low-volume trade. While the grains were on the defensive, the soy complex found some support from technically related...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.495/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338.7/short ton, up $3.4 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...