Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Market Commentary: Reports Tank Soy Complex and Wheat; Corn Stocks Bullish but Market Falls Anyway
The much-anticipated Grain Stocks report failed to match expectations in terms of supply data, but more than exceeded hopes for an exciting day of trade. The USDA’s headline report – the Grain Stocks as of 1 September – and the Small Grains summary report sent wheat and the so...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7675/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, down $0.3725 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.75/bushel, down $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $381.2/short ton, down $1...
Oilseed Highlights – Drift Lower Could End
The Market It was another week of falling oilseed prices. November soybeans dropped 1.6 percent, December soymeal lost 1.1 percent and December soyoil fell hardest, shaving off 6.3 percent. The market can be a paradox. Brazil is dominating the export market and yet the U.S. has tight supplies a...
Market Commentary: Mixed but Friendly
Never understood the market phrase “friendly” – friendly to whom? Today’s market was not too unfriendly to anyone from the standpoint that up or down, there were no dramatic swings. Call it light volatility. Key points: The results were mixed with corn, soymeal, and liv...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.885/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7875/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $13.005/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $391.5/short ton, up $2.4...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 15-21, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 544,500 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 77 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 584,600 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 98 percent from the previo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Crashes on Tender Results; Commercial Buying Lifts Corn
The CBOT was once again mixed with wheat futures dropping to fresh, two-year lows after data from Egypt’s latest tender showed continued weakness in global values. Corn and soybeans, on the other hand, found a bit of strength on commercial buying and, for soybeans, expectations of tighter...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $13.0325/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $389.1/short ton, down $3.6 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Market Commentary: Worsening Conditions Lift Soy Complex; Cattle Crash on Economic Worries
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the worst late-September soybean ratings since 2003 offering support to soybean futures while further strength in crude oil stopped, temporarily at least, the selling in soyoil. Despite the strength in the soy complex, corn and wheat futures struggled to find...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 25 September)
Update for 28 August 2023: Last fall, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.89/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.9775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $389.8/short ton, up $4 from yest...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s winter crop planting effort is 11 percent complete with 585.6 thousand hectares seeded so far. Overnight, Russia launched another missile attack on Ukraine’s Odesa region, which damaged several near-port granaries and the under-construction...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall continues to evade much of Argentina’s wheat-growing region and out of the total planted area, 2 Mha are estimated to be in either regular or poor condition according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Twenty-two percent of the area is in poor/very poor condition, 25 percent is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Market Commentary: Defensive for a While Longer
The CBOT tried to recover from Thursday’s blistering selling that was primarily motivated by disappointing export sales and aggressive “risk off” trade. Overnight volume was paltry heading into Friday morning but the soy complex tried to stage a rally. Friday’s trade was...
Oilseed Highlights – Another Bearish Week
The Market It was another down week for the oilseeds complex. November soybeans lost 44 cents to a one month low, December soymeal is off $6.30 and December soyoil gave up 2.44 cents. Global vegetable oil markets are weak. Palm oil hit a three-month low at 3,657 ringgits/MT ($779.91) and canola...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.9625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $385.8/short ton, down $2.3 fro...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Summary for September 8-14, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 307,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 30 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 296,000 MT were down 28 percent from the previous week and 17 percent...
Market Commentary: Sours on Economic Outlook
There was red across the board today as ags and outside markets collectively absorbed the Fed’s message of potentially longer-term costlier money and consequently slower growth. Adding to the weight was a U.S. dollar that hasn’t traded this high since 8 March. There was some...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.9375/bushel, down $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $388.1/short ton, down $7...
Market Commentary: Reports Tank Soy Complex and Wheat; Corn Stocks Bullish but Market Falls Anyway
The much-anticipated Grain Stocks report failed to match expectations in terms of supply data, but more than exceeded hopes for an exciting day of trade. The USDA’s headline report – the Grain Stocks as of 1 September – and the Small Grains summary report sent wheat and the so...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7675/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.415/bushel, down $0.3725 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.75/bushel, down $0.255 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $381.2/short ton, down $1...
Oilseed Highlights – Drift Lower Could End
The Market It was another week of falling oilseed prices. November soybeans dropped 1.6 percent, December soymeal lost 1.1 percent and December soyoil fell hardest, shaving off 6.3 percent. The market can be a paradox. Brazil is dominating the export market and yet the U.S. has tight supplies a...
Market Commentary: Mixed but Friendly
Never understood the market phrase “friendly” – friendly to whom? Today’s market was not too unfriendly to anyone from the standpoint that up or down, there were no dramatic swings. Call it light volatility. Key points: The results were mixed with corn, soymeal, and liv...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.885/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7875/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $13.005/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $391.5/short ton, up $2.4...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for September 15-21, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 544,500 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up 77 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 584,600 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 98 percent from the previo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Crashes on Tender Results; Commercial Buying Lifts Corn
The CBOT was once again mixed with wheat futures dropping to fresh, two-year lows after data from Egypt’s latest tender showed continued weakness in global values. Corn and soybeans, on the other hand, found a bit of strength on commercial buying and, for soybeans, expectations of tighter...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8325/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $13.0325/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $389.1/short ton, down $3.6 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Market Commentary: Worsening Conditions Lift Soy Complex; Cattle Crash on Economic Worries
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the worst late-September soybean ratings since 2003 offering support to soybean futures while further strength in crude oil stopped, temporarily at least, the selling in soyoil. Despite the strength in the soy complex, corn and wheat futures struggled to find...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 25 September)
Update for 28 August 2023: Last fall, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.8125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.89/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.9775/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $389.8/short ton, up $4 from yest...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s winter crop planting effort is 11 percent complete with 585.6 thousand hectares seeded so far. Overnight, Russia launched another missile attack on Ukraine’s Odesa region, which damaged several near-port granaries and the under-construction...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall continues to evade much of Argentina’s wheat-growing region and out of the total planted area, 2 Mha are estimated to be in either regular or poor condition according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Twenty-two percent of the area is in poor/very poor condition, 25 percent is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Market Commentary: Defensive for a While Longer
The CBOT tried to recover from Thursday’s blistering selling that was primarily motivated by disappointing export sales and aggressive “risk off” trade. Overnight volume was paltry heading into Friday morning but the soy complex tried to stage a rally. Friday’s trade was...
Oilseed Highlights – Another Bearish Week
The Market It was another down week for the oilseeds complex. November soybeans lost 44 cents to a one month low, December soymeal is off $6.30 and December soyoil gave up 2.44 cents. Global vegetable oil markets are weak. Palm oil hit a three-month low at 3,657 ringgits/MT ($779.91) and canola...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7725/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.795/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.9625/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $385.8/short ton, down $2.3 fro...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Summary for September 8-14, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 307,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 30 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 296,000 MT were down 28 percent from the previous week and 17 percent...
Market Commentary: Sours on Economic Outlook
There was red across the board today as ags and outside markets collectively absorbed the Fed’s message of potentially longer-term costlier money and consequently slower growth. Adding to the weight was a U.S. dollar that hasn’t traded this high since 8 March. There was some...
Summary of Futures
Dec 23 Corn closed at $4.7525/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Wheat closed at $5.7575/bushel, down $0.13 from yesterday's close. Nov 23 Soybeans closed at $12.9375/bushel, down $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Dec 23 Soymeal closed at $388.1/short ton, down $7...