Recent Wheat Analysis
Export Sales
Export Sales for November 19-25, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 79,900 metric tons (MT) for2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 86 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 1,020,800 MT for 2021/2022 were down 29 percent f...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Bounce, Pullback as Omicron Detected in U.S.
The CBOT started the day higher with corn and the soy complex leading the way after “buy on the bounce” and “risk on” trade developed overnight and in the early morning. Confirmation from the EU that Omicron coronavirus cases present with relatively mild symptoms and a l...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.715/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.905/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.2825/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soymeal closed at $349.1/short ton, up $7.3 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions, but the changes were not dramatic. They took place mainly due to ruble weakening and an increase of export duties. Demand from domestic buyers decreased. Export milling wheat average offer pric...
Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)
“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...
Aussie Wheat Importance
Although Australia produces less than 5 percent of global wheat output, it is typically the world’s fourth largest exporter. Due to its tendency toward drought, production can be variable but still correlates over time to global wheat ending stocks. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.675/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8725/bushel, down $0.35 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.1725/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soymeal closed at $341.8/short ton, down $...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan and India are having difficulty in agreeing on the method to move Indian wheat to Afghanistan through Pakistan. While the shipment of 50,000 MT has been approved by Pakistan, it is insisting on the use of Pakistan trucks and...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Weaker on Limited News, Strong U.S. Dollar, and Technical Selling
The CBOT was generally weaker to start the week with heavy overnight trade pushing wheat and soybeans higher while corn was lower. Today was the last trading day before first notice day on the 30 November and traders were actively exiting December positions. Given the general length in the CBOT...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 29 November)
Update for 29 November 2021: If you don't see the app on the WPI homepage, you can always find it here: https://www.worldperspectives.com/articles/wpi-crop-progress-app The app contains a large volume of data, so please be patient while it loads. Also, if you have any feedback about...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.81/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.2225/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.415/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soymeal closed at $342.7/short ton, do...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Last week was a short one for trading with Monday having been an Argentine holiday and Thursday marking the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Markets were, of course, extremely volatile on Friday, and these factors combined to keep developments limited in both FAS and FOB markets. Wheat Good wea...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France has detected the highly pathogenic bird flu virus on a farm in the northern part of the country, officials said on Saturday. The news comes after several other European countries have detected outbreaks this fall. Russian wheat farmers continue to face dry condi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.8675/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.4025/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.5275/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soymeal closed at $349.4/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: COVID-19 News Craters Markets; Corn, Wheat, and Cattle Show Strength Amid Selling
Once again, coronavirus dominated the market’s psychology and action after the WHO identified the new southern Africa strain as a “variant of concern” due to increased risk of reinfection. U.S. stock futures opened sharply lower when overnight trading began, with the Dow futur...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 567,500 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 42 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 1,429,200 MT for 2021/2022--a marketing-year high--were up 58 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.5025/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.665/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soymeal closed at $350.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Rally; Wheat Posts Reversal; Corn Fails at Key Resistance Level
The CBOT was higher overnight with continued worries about world wheat supplies and weather driving the markets. Wheat futures continued their upside run in early day trading and posted new contract highs before profit taking pushed the market lower and formed technical reversals on the charts...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions. Export duties continued to increase. Export milling wheat average offer price grew to $340/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price grew to RUB 16,900/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average...
Market Commentary: New Highs in Wheat and Cattle; Soymeal Crashes; Oil Rallies as Biden Increases Supply
CBOT futures were mixed on Tuesday with wheat once again leading the way higher with new contract highs, corn following, and the soy complex ending mixed. Persistent rain in the forecast for Australia, combined with logistics issues from Canadian flooding and drought in the Black Sea and U.S. P...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.805/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.675/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.73/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $362.2/short ton, down $7.8 from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally; Cattle Higher After Neutral On Feed Report
CBOT futures were higher to start the week with wheat leading the rally. Drought in the U.S. Plains, too much rain in eastern Australia, and geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea all combined to drive Paris, Australian, CBOT and KCBT wheat futures to new contract highs. Corn was pulled higher...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7675/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.4575/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.7425/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $370/short ton, down $1.8 from...
Export Sales
Export Sales for November 19-25, 2021. Wheat: Net sales of 79,900 metric tons (MT) for2021/2022--a marketing-year low--were down 86 percent from the previous week and 80 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 1,020,800 MT for 2021/2022 were down 29 percent f...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Bounce, Pullback as Omicron Detected in U.S.
The CBOT started the day higher with corn and the soy complex leading the way after “buy on the bounce” and “risk on” trade developed overnight and in the early morning. Confirmation from the EU that Omicron coronavirus cases present with relatively mild symptoms and a l...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.715/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.905/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.2825/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soymeal closed at $349.1/short ton, up $7.3 from ye...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions, but the changes were not dramatic. They took place mainly due to ruble weakening and an increase of export duties. Demand from domestic buyers decreased. Export milling wheat average offer pric...
Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)
“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...
Aussie Wheat Importance
Although Australia produces less than 5 percent of global wheat output, it is typically the world’s fourth largest exporter. Due to its tendency toward drought, production can be variable but still correlates over time to global wheat ending stocks. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 22 Corn closed at $5.675/bushel, down $0.1475 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $7.8725/bushel, down $0.35 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.1725/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soymeal closed at $341.8/short ton, down $...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Pakistan and India are having difficulty in agreeing on the method to move Indian wheat to Afghanistan through Pakistan. While the shipment of 50,000 MT has been approved by Pakistan, it is insisting on the use of Pakistan trucks and...
Market Commentary: Ag Markets Weaker on Limited News, Strong U.S. Dollar, and Technical Selling
The CBOT was generally weaker to start the week with heavy overnight trade pushing wheat and soybeans higher while corn was lower. Today was the last trading day before first notice day on the 30 November and traders were actively exiting December positions. Given the general length in the CBOT...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 29 November)
Update for 29 November 2021: If you don't see the app on the WPI homepage, you can always find it here: https://www.worldperspectives.com/articles/wpi-crop-progress-app The app contains a large volume of data, so please be patient while it loads. Also, if you have any feedback about...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.81/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.2225/bushel, down $0.18 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.415/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soymeal closed at $342.7/short ton, do...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Last week was a short one for trading with Monday having been an Argentine holiday and Thursday marking the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Markets were, of course, extremely volatile on Friday, and these factors combined to keep developments limited in both FAS and FOB markets. Wheat Good wea...
European Market Analysis
Regional News France has detected the highly pathogenic bird flu virus on a farm in the northern part of the country, officials said on Saturday. The news comes after several other European countries have detected outbreaks this fall. Russian wheat farmers continue to face dry condi...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.8675/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.4025/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.5275/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soymeal closed at $349.4/short ton, down $1.5...
Market Commentary: COVID-19 News Craters Markets; Corn, Wheat, and Cattle Show Strength Amid Selling
Once again, coronavirus dominated the market’s psychology and action after the WHO identified the new southern Africa strain as a “variant of concern” due to increased risk of reinfection. U.S. stock futures opened sharply lower when overnight trading began, with the Dow futur...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 567,500 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were up 42 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 1,429,200 MT for 2021/2022--a marketing-year high--were up 58 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the p...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.5025/bushel, down $0.1725 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.665/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soymeal closed at $350.9/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Rally; Wheat Posts Reversal; Corn Fails at Key Resistance Level
The CBOT was higher overnight with continued worries about world wheat supplies and weather driving the markets. Wheat futures continued their upside run in early day trading and posted new contract highs before profit taking pushed the market lower and formed technical reversals on the charts...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions. Export duties continued to increase. Export milling wheat average offer price grew to $340/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price grew to RUB 16,900/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average...
Market Commentary: New Highs in Wheat and Cattle; Soymeal Crashes; Oil Rallies as Biden Increases Supply
CBOT futures were mixed on Tuesday with wheat once again leading the way higher with new contract highs, corn following, and the soy complex ending mixed. Persistent rain in the forecast for Australia, combined with logistics issues from Canadian flooding and drought in the Black Sea and U.S. P...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.805/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Mar 22 Wheat closed at $8.675/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.73/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $362.2/short ton, down $7.8 from...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally; Cattle Higher After Neutral On Feed Report
CBOT futures were higher to start the week with wheat leading the rally. Drought in the U.S. Plains, too much rain in eastern Australia, and geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea all combined to drive Paris, Australian, CBOT and KCBT wheat futures to new contract highs. Corn was pulled higher...
Summary of Futures
Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.7675/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Wheat closed at $8.4575/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. Jan 22 Soybeans closed at $12.7425/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $370/short ton, down $1.8 from...