Recent Wheat Analysis
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks
The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
PM Post - Corn Supported; Soy Holds
THE OPEN May beans: 1 lower May meal: 1.40 higher May soyoil: 35 lower May corna; 2 1/2 higher May wheat: 5 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with further gains in wheat on short-covering. Wheat prices corrected sharply after trading above moving aver...
AM Outlook - Report Day!
GOOD MORNING, Report day! At 11:00 central time traders will see how the new carry-out levels and SA production estimates impact prices. Funds seemed to be onto something yesterday, with corn prices accelerating from the start of the day. As mentioned before, fund buying would...
Technical Views - Bull Flags, Ascending Triangles
SPREADS July crush trads to 60.25c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.23%. Spreads are slightly weaker for July/Nov inverse, trading down to 1.33 1/4c, while May/July inverse trades from 5-6c. July/Dec meal trades from $18.00 inverse to $16.10, while May/July trades from $3.40 out to $3...
Market Commentary: Setting Up Surprise
Traders say they do not like surprises but they seem to be setting up for one tomorrow. There is a lot of room for disappointment when USDA releases its April WASDE report. For 80 percent of the datapoints surveyed by Reuters, the trade expects USDA to give them more bullish numbers (see table...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.2875/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.1525/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $406.8/short ton, down $2.3 f...
PM Post - Buying Ahead
THE OPEN May beans: 2 lower May meal: 1.20 lower May soyoil: 5 lower May corn: 6 3/4 higher May wheat: 7 3/4 higher The markets opened as called with a sharp rally in corn leading the way higher for other markets to do much the same. Wheat futures ran more shorts o...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 82,000 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down 67 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 757,000 MT for 2020/2021 were down 5 percent from the previous week and 54 percent from...
AM Outlook - Grains Firmer; Oilseeds Weaker
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to slip into trading ranges in front of the April 9 WASDE report. Sharply lower soyoil futures were the key to soy complex weakness yesterday, with one wire talking about a hedge fund selling out its soyoil length in front of Friday's report. Soyo...
Technical Views - Grain Strength
SPREADS July crush trades up to 61.86c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.33%. Goldman Roll begins today. May/July bean inverse trades down to 5 1/4c from 6 1/4c while July/Nov trades from 1.30 1/2c to 1.35 1/2c. May/July corn trades from 15 1/4c down to 14 1/4c, while July/Dec tr...
Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop; Grains Chop Sideways
Cattle and hog futures are lodged in massive bullish uptrends that seem to have no end in sight. All three major livestock contracts posted fresh contract highs this afternoon with open interest and trading volume rising as well. In contrast, the grain markets chopped sideways with the day&rsqu...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.605/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.0875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $409.1/short ton, up $2.7 fro...
PM Post - Timing the Next Climb
THE OPEN May beans: 4 1/2 higher May meal: 1.00 higher May soyoil: 4 higher May corn: 2 3/4 higher May wheat: 1/4 lower Prices opened as called but a shake-out in oilshare pressured bean prices. Corn gained on beans and wheat found a short-covering bounce int...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 March-2 April 2021 Milling and feed wheat, feed corn, and barley prices remained unchanged or moved in different directions insignificantly, mainly under the influence of domestic factors, as exports decreased. March grain exports amounted to 2.8 MMT versus 4.6 MMT exp...
AM Outlook - Air of Caution
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to adjust into Friday's WASDE report, which is typically not a market maker. Prices are mostly firm this morning proceeding still with an air of caution. On the bear side for beans are China's crushing margins, which are weaker, and slows dem...
Technical Views - Within Ranges
SPREADS July crush trades to 59.29c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.80%. The July/Nov bean inverse trades to 1.40 3/4c from 1.46 3/4c, while May/July trades down to 6 3/4c from 8 1/2c. July/Dec meal trades from $18.10 to $19.50. July/Dec corn trades from 58c to 60 1/4c, w...
Market Commentary: CBOT Chops Sideways; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT started out strong but pulled back on quiet volumes and limited follow-through buying. Buyers are looking at early forecasts for ample grain and oilseed supplies in 2021/22 and see no reason to chase the market higher heading into the April WASDE. USDA’s April report is generally...
PM Post - Corrections to Downside are Over
THE OPEN May beans: 15 higher May meal: 3.40 higher May soyoil: 1.08 pts higher May corn: 6 higher May wheat: 4 1/4 higher The markets opened as called with trends continuing to show stronger oilshare values and higher bean trade. Inverses strengthened today...
AM Outlook - Firmer Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices remain well bid overnight with higher oilshare again dominating price action and beans climbing over corn. Crush continues to struggle, with oilshare still supported on biofuel demand. Spreads and flat price all recover in overnight action. Wheat is...
Technicals - Pre-Report Positioning
SPREADS July oilshare rises to 38.65% and crush trades up to 59c/bu. Spreads are firmer with July/Nov trading up to 1.44 1/2c from 1.36 1/2c, and May/July bean inverse trading up to 7 1/2c from 5 1/4c. July/Dec meal inverse strengthens to $17.30 from $12.50 lows. July/Dec corn...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA After the problem with the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, the Egyptian government is said to be looking at the possibility of expanding the canal. There has also been some talk of a new canal from the Gulf of Aqaba, through Israel, to...
WASDE Wheat
U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...
Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks
The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
PM Post - Corn Supported; Soy Holds
THE OPEN May beans: 1 lower May meal: 1.40 higher May soyoil: 35 lower May corna; 2 1/2 higher May wheat: 5 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with further gains in wheat on short-covering. Wheat prices corrected sharply after trading above moving aver...
AM Outlook - Report Day!
GOOD MORNING, Report day! At 11:00 central time traders will see how the new carry-out levels and SA production estimates impact prices. Funds seemed to be onto something yesterday, with corn prices accelerating from the start of the day. As mentioned before, fund buying would...
Technical Views - Bull Flags, Ascending Triangles
SPREADS July crush trads to 60.25c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.23%. Spreads are slightly weaker for July/Nov inverse, trading down to 1.33 1/4c, while May/July inverse trades from 5-6c. July/Dec meal trades from $18.00 inverse to $16.10, while May/July trades from $3.40 out to $3...
Market Commentary: Setting Up Surprise
Traders say they do not like surprises but they seem to be setting up for one tomorrow. There is a lot of room for disappointment when USDA releases its April WASDE report. For 80 percent of the datapoints surveyed by Reuters, the trade expects USDA to give them more bullish numbers (see table...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.2875/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.1525/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $406.8/short ton, down $2.3 f...
PM Post - Buying Ahead
THE OPEN May beans: 2 lower May meal: 1.20 lower May soyoil: 5 lower May corn: 6 3/4 higher May wheat: 7 3/4 higher The markets opened as called with a sharp rally in corn leading the way higher for other markets to do much the same. Wheat futures ran more shorts o...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 82,000 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down 67 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 757,000 MT for 2020/2021 were down 5 percent from the previous week and 54 percent from...
AM Outlook - Grains Firmer; Oilseeds Weaker
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to slip into trading ranges in front of the April 9 WASDE report. Sharply lower soyoil futures were the key to soy complex weakness yesterday, with one wire talking about a hedge fund selling out its soyoil length in front of Friday's report. Soyo...
Technical Views - Grain Strength
SPREADS July crush trades up to 61.86c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.33%. Goldman Roll begins today. May/July bean inverse trades down to 5 1/4c from 6 1/4c while July/Nov trades from 1.30 1/2c to 1.35 1/2c. May/July corn trades from 15 1/4c down to 14 1/4c, while July/Dec tr...
Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop; Grains Chop Sideways
Cattle and hog futures are lodged in massive bullish uptrends that seem to have no end in sight. All three major livestock contracts posted fresh contract highs this afternoon with open interest and trading volume rising as well. In contrast, the grain markets chopped sideways with the day&rsqu...
Summary of Futures
May 21 Corn closed at $5.605/bushel, up $0.0625 from yesterday's close. May 21 Wheat closed at $6.1625/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.0875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. May 21 Soymeal closed at $409.1/short ton, up $2.7 fro...
PM Post - Timing the Next Climb
THE OPEN May beans: 4 1/2 higher May meal: 1.00 higher May soyoil: 4 higher May corn: 2 3/4 higher May wheat: 1/4 lower Prices opened as called but a shake-out in oilshare pressured bean prices. Corn gained on beans and wheat found a short-covering bounce int...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 March-2 April 2021 Milling and feed wheat, feed corn, and barley prices remained unchanged or moved in different directions insignificantly, mainly under the influence of domestic factors, as exports decreased. March grain exports amounted to 2.8 MMT versus 4.6 MMT exp...
AM Outlook - Air of Caution
GOOD MORNING, The markets continue to adjust into Friday's WASDE report, which is typically not a market maker. Prices are mostly firm this morning proceeding still with an air of caution. On the bear side for beans are China's crushing margins, which are weaker, and slows dem...
Technical Views - Within Ranges
SPREADS July crush trades to 59.29c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.80%. The July/Nov bean inverse trades to 1.40 3/4c from 1.46 3/4c, while May/July trades down to 6 3/4c from 8 1/2c. July/Dec meal trades from $18.10 to $19.50. July/Dec corn trades from 58c to 60 1/4c, w...
Market Commentary: CBOT Chops Sideways; Livestock Markets Rally
The CBOT started out strong but pulled back on quiet volumes and limited follow-through buying. Buyers are looking at early forecasts for ample grain and oilseed supplies in 2021/22 and see no reason to chase the market higher heading into the April WASDE. USDA’s April report is generally...
PM Post - Corrections to Downside are Over
THE OPEN May beans: 15 higher May meal: 3.40 higher May soyoil: 1.08 pts higher May corn: 6 higher May wheat: 4 1/4 higher The markets opened as called with trends continuing to show stronger oilshare values and higher bean trade. Inverses strengthened today...
AM Outlook - Firmer Day
GOOD MORNING, Prices remain well bid overnight with higher oilshare again dominating price action and beans climbing over corn. Crush continues to struggle, with oilshare still supported on biofuel demand. Spreads and flat price all recover in overnight action. Wheat is...
Technicals - Pre-Report Positioning
SPREADS July oilshare rises to 38.65% and crush trades up to 59c/bu. Spreads are firmer with July/Nov trading up to 1.44 1/2c from 1.36 1/2c, and May/July bean inverse trading up to 7 1/2c from 5 1/4c. July/Dec meal inverse strengthens to $17.30 from $12.50 lows. July/Dec corn...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA After the problem with the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, the Egyptian government is said to be looking at the possibility of expanding the canal. There has also been some talk of a new canal from the Gulf of Aqaba, through Israel, to...