Recent Wheat Analysis
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were sharply higher overnight after news of a pending U.S.-China trade deal. Soybeans posted an amazing 13½ cent overnight gain while corn finished the night session up 5½ cents. Wheat added 3-5 cents in similarly enthusiastic trade. The day session saw prices m...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.81/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.075/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soymeal closed at $296.9/short ton, up $2.7 from y...
Getting to $50 Billion
The draft agreement between Washington and Beijing reportedly calls for China to purchase $50 billion worth of agricultural products from the U.S. in 2020. That would be a 291 percent increase from 2019, or a 92 percent increase from the pre-war year of 2017. One would expect China to have adde...
PM Post - Potential Indigestion
THE OPEN March beans: 9 1/4 higher March meal: 2.50 higher March soyoil: 13 higher March corn; 2 1/2 higher March wheat: 2 1/4 higher Prices opened with an air of caution and quickly filled in small open PM session gaps. Headlines continue to be digested with...
Technical Views - Gentle Climb
SPREADS Bean futures are still mostly about volumes going to spread trade, with January open interest down 17,339 ctrs and March up 15,796 ctrs. Open interest decreased slightly in May and July indicating only a small amount of liquidation has taken place. Jan/March bean spread trad...
AM Outlook - Riding High
GOOD MORNING, The adage is that low prices cure low prices. But now it's also enough to say that a few tweets and headlines along with some positive technical signals will aid in price recovery as well. Trump's tweets had been hinting at some kind of resolution, but this time...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and the expectation was for more of the same when the sun rose but politics and fundamentals combined to give Chicago a shot in the arm. The fundamental change included the largest corn export sales in a long time, and a peace offering to China by the White House p...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7775/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9825/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $0.8 fro...
PM Post - The Running of the Bulls
THE OPEN March beans: 3 1/2 lower March meal: .80 lower March soyoil: 15 higher March corn: 2 higher March wheat: 1 higher It was game on today as tweets and headlines suggesting a deal was at hand propelled stocks and commodity prices higher, driving corn off its...
A Few Odds and Ends
As we sink further into December, grain and soy futures markets continue their directionless up and down pattern within current trading ranges. Exciting they are not! The only comment we care to offer is that they seem to go down more easily than they go up as yesterday’s price action dem...
Technical Views - Oil is Your Friend
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.02c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.82%. March/May meal trades from $3.90 to $4.10, and begins on the narrower side. March/May corn widens out to new lows at 7c from 6 1/2c. March wheat /corn trades from 1.43c/ to 1.46c. Dec/March corn trad...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 502,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 873,500 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 60 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week...
AM Outlook - Testing the Margins
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trend sideways to lower with the short-covering rally ending in beans as bears take control and try to push values back under the $9.00 benchmark in March. Despite confirmed business to China, the market pulled a buy the rumor and sell the fact bean trade,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.935/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soymeal closed at $295/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary
Post-December WASDE trade was mostly lower with trade activity rising well above the dismal volumes of yesterday. The markets opened as called with grains moving lower from the start and soybeans initially trading higher. The surprise of the day session, however, was the early turn lower in the...
PM Post - Lower Momentum
THE OPEN March beans: 1 lower Jan meal: 1.00 lower Jan soyoil: 14 lower March corn: 3/4 lower March wheat: 2 1/2 lower The markets opened as called with prices turning lower led by soybeans, which in turn pressured grains. The weakness in the bean mark...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics November Food Inflation Hits Highest Level Since May 2008 Food prices for this past November surged by 19.1 percent compared with November 2018. Since last February, monthly food inflation has now risen for nine straight months and has surpassed double digits from August onward...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 December 2019 Domestic Russian milling rye prices grew sharply. Milling and feed wheat prices also increased, but at a moderate rate. As for export prices, the average milling wheat price grew to $212MT FOB Black Sea. Purchase prices grew to RUB 12,500-12,700/MT. Feed...
Technical Views - Weakness at the Start
SPREADS March crush trades down to 98c/bu while oilshare is still firm at 34.53%. The January roll continues with Jan/March beans trading out to 14 1/2c from 13 3/4c, and March/May from 13 1/4c to 13 3/4c. March/May corn weakens out to 6c from 5 3/4c, while Dec/March trades ou...
AM Outlook - Highs and Lows
GOOD MORNING, The December WASDE report has come and gone and traders are left watching weather and trade negotiations. Funds maintain a net short position in corn and beans, but right now the major direction is sideways to higher. Grains sit close to the bottom of trading ranges, b...
SSA Commodity Opportunity
Europe has traditionally taken a stronger interest in its former colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa, with China becoming aggressively involved in recent years. The U.S. has limited its view to that of foreign aid assistance, despite the fact that its own population includes the largest number of ed...
Market Commentary
The December WASDE is typically a non-event and today’s report was no different. Typically, there are few changes to be made to the U.S. balance sheets and, even with this year’s extreme weather/harvest delays, USDA is more likely to adjust harvest acres/yields in the January WASDE...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.77/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.0125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soymeal closed at $298.7/short ton, up $0.2 from yes...
PM POST: WASDE Highlights
THE OPEN March beans: 4 ½ higher Jan meal: 0.90 higher Jan soyoil: 3 lower March corn: ¾ higher March wheat: 1 ½ lower The markets opened as expected with the soy complex once again steady vs. weaker grains led by wheat into the 11:00 CT report...
Market Commentary
CBOT markets were sharply higher overnight after news of a pending U.S.-China trade deal. Soybeans posted an amazing 13½ cent overnight gain while corn finished the night session up 5½ cents. Wheat added 3-5 cents in similarly enthusiastic trade. The day session saw prices m...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.81/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.325/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.075/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soymeal closed at $296.9/short ton, up $2.7 from y...
Getting to $50 Billion
The draft agreement between Washington and Beijing reportedly calls for China to purchase $50 billion worth of agricultural products from the U.S. in 2020. That would be a 291 percent increase from 2019, or a 92 percent increase from the pre-war year of 2017. One would expect China to have adde...
PM Post - Potential Indigestion
THE OPEN March beans: 9 1/4 higher March meal: 2.50 higher March soyoil: 13 higher March corn; 2 1/2 higher March wheat: 2 1/4 higher Prices opened with an air of caution and quickly filled in small open PM session gaps. Headlines continue to be digested with...
Technical Views - Gentle Climb
SPREADS Bean futures are still mostly about volumes going to spread trade, with January open interest down 17,339 ctrs and March up 15,796 ctrs. Open interest decreased slightly in May and July indicating only a small amount of liquidation has taken place. Jan/March bean spread trad...
AM Outlook - Riding High
GOOD MORNING, The adage is that low prices cure low prices. But now it's also enough to say that a few tweets and headlines along with some positive technical signals will aid in price recovery as well. Trump's tweets had been hinting at some kind of resolution, but this time...
Market Commentary
Markets were lower overnight, and the expectation was for more of the same when the sun rose but politics and fundamentals combined to give Chicago a shot in the arm. The fundamental change included the largest corn export sales in a long time, and a peace offering to China by the White House p...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7775/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9825/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soymeal closed at $294.2/short ton, down $0.8 fro...
PM Post - The Running of the Bulls
THE OPEN March beans: 3 1/2 lower March meal: .80 lower March soyoil: 15 higher March corn: 2 higher March wheat: 1 higher It was game on today as tweets and headlines suggesting a deal was at hand propelled stocks and commodity prices higher, driving corn off its...
A Few Odds and Ends
As we sink further into December, grain and soy futures markets continue their directionless up and down pattern within current trading ranges. Exciting they are not! The only comment we care to offer is that they seem to go down more easily than they go up as yesterday’s price action dem...
Technical Views - Oil is Your Friend
SPREADS March crush trades to 1.02c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.82%. March/May meal trades from $3.90 to $4.10, and begins on the narrower side. March/May corn widens out to new lows at 7c from 6 1/2c. March wheat /corn trades from 1.43c/ to 1.46c. Dec/March corn trad...
Export Sales
Wheat: Net sales of 502,700 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn: Net sales of 873,500 metric tons for 2019/2020 were up 60 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week...
AM Outlook - Testing the Margins
GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trend sideways to lower with the short-covering rally ending in beans as bears take control and try to push values back under the $9.00 benchmark in March. Despite confirmed business to China, the market pulled a buy the rumor and sell the fact bean trade,...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.7125/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.1925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.935/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soymeal closed at $295/short ton, down $3...
Market Commentary
Post-December WASDE trade was mostly lower with trade activity rising well above the dismal volumes of yesterday. The markets opened as called with grains moving lower from the start and soybeans initially trading higher. The surprise of the day session, however, was the early turn lower in the...
PM Post - Lower Momentum
THE OPEN March beans: 1 lower Jan meal: 1.00 lower Jan soyoil: 14 lower March corn: 3/4 lower March wheat: 2 1/2 lower The markets opened as called with prices turning lower led by soybeans, which in turn pressured grains. The weakness in the bean mark...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics November Food Inflation Hits Highest Level Since May 2008 Food prices for this past November surged by 19.1 percent compared with November 2018. Since last February, monthly food inflation has now risen for nine straight months and has surpassed double digits from August onward...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2-6 December 2019 Domestic Russian milling rye prices grew sharply. Milling and feed wheat prices also increased, but at a moderate rate. As for export prices, the average milling wheat price grew to $212MT FOB Black Sea. Purchase prices grew to RUB 12,500-12,700/MT. Feed...
Technical Views - Weakness at the Start
SPREADS March crush trades down to 98c/bu while oilshare is still firm at 34.53%. The January roll continues with Jan/March beans trading out to 14 1/2c from 13 3/4c, and March/May from 13 1/4c to 13 3/4c. March/May corn weakens out to 6c from 5 3/4c, while Dec/March trades ou...
AM Outlook - Highs and Lows
GOOD MORNING, The December WASDE report has come and gone and traders are left watching weather and trade negotiations. Funds maintain a net short position in corn and beans, but right now the major direction is sideways to higher. Grains sit close to the bottom of trading ranges, b...
SSA Commodity Opportunity
Europe has traditionally taken a stronger interest in its former colonies in Sub-Saharan Africa, with China becoming aggressively involved in recent years. The U.S. has limited its view to that of foreign aid assistance, despite the fact that its own population includes the largest number of ed...
Market Commentary
The December WASDE is typically a non-event and today’s report was no different. Typically, there are few changes to be made to the U.S. balance sheets and, even with this year’s extreme weather/harvest delays, USDA is more likely to adjust harvest acres/yields in the January WASDE...
Summary of Futures
Mar 20 Corn closed at $3.77/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Mar 20 Wheat closed at $5.2375/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.0125/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jan 20 Soymeal closed at $298.7/short ton, up $0.2 from yes...
PM POST: WASDE Highlights
THE OPEN March beans: 4 ½ higher Jan meal: 0.90 higher Jan soyoil: 3 lower March corn: ¾ higher March wheat: 1 ½ lower The markets opened as expected with the soy complex once again steady vs. weaker grains led by wheat into the 11:00 CT report...