Recent Wheat Analysis
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egyptian government officials said the “dollar crisis” has now been corrected and that foreign payments are being made by banks and delayed goods are clearing customs. Extra efforts have been made to r...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, Live Cattle Post New Contract Highs; Grains End Firmer
The CBOT was stronger to start the day with corn and wheat finding mild, continued strength from last week’s rallies. The winterkill threats to the HRW crop mean that KCBT wheat is the upside leader in wheat futures with funds slowly shifting to the long side of the market. Corn ticked hi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8375/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.3525/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $488.7/short ton, up $15.2 fr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt has reportedly secured a long-term contract with Germany to buy wheat from the European nation, though details on the agreement are sparse. Russia’s total wheat planted area for 2023 is projected to reach 29.05 Mha, down from 29.468 Mha seeded in 2022. Roma...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains that have fallen so far in 2023 indicate a possible change in the South American weather pattern. They have been good in terms of quantity and regularity and have been covering practically the entire agricultural area. In addition, forecasts continue to be favorable for the next week...
Market Commentary: Bullish Signals in KCBT Wheat and Corn; WPI 2023 Acreage Forecasts
The CBOT capped a volatile week with a relatively quiet day of trading. That didn’t mean there weren’t ample technical developments, however, with several markets forming or hinting at trend reversals. For the day, corn futures showed some strength early but ended flat while the soy...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.095/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $473.5/short ton, down $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Macro and Russians
After a brutal Monday, futures have been clawing back gains the past few days. Trading on Thursday was helped along by a U.S. Q4 2022 GDP number that pleased outside markets. Consumer spending underpinned a 2.9 percent increase in GDP, though there remain warnings of another shoe to drop. That...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 13-19, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 500,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 84 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 264,200 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week, but up 15 percen...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.825/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.235/bushel, up $0.21 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $477.1/short ton, up $11.6 from...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Finally Finds a Bid; Cold Storage Report Bearish Livestock
The CBOT saw another day of strength in wheat as funds continue to pare back their short positions in that market while commercial buying interest picked up, especially for HRW wheat. In contrast to the weakness observed earlier this week, the soy complex rallied across the board on a combinati...
Battle for Acres
S&P Global is the first private firm to issue an acreage planted forecast following USDA’s prediction for the upcoming campaign, but it will not be the last. The annual exercise is riskier this far out from when planting actually occurs because markets can change and farmers have cert...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.025/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $465.5/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soy Complex Weakens Further
Corn and wheat futures posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with Monday’s selloff yielding higher prices on a combination of profit taking and short-covering. The soy complex attempted the same but could not hold gains as showers fell across Argentina again and are forecast to contin...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.77/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.345/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $14.885/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $459.8/short ton, down $2.1 fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish authorities have decided, in their infinite wisdom, to ban the importation of any grain or coproduct containing GMO trait MON810 while allowing the importation if the trait is the stacked GMO trait of MON8...
Market Commentary: South American Rains Create CBOT Selling Flood
The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain, but this week it’s falling on Argentina and causing a flood of CBOT sell orders. Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all came under heavy selling pressure to start the week as funds liquidated fresh longs that quickly became underwater. The odd th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.6625/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.2/bushel, down $0.215 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $14.9025/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $461.9/short ton, down $1.8...
Cure for High Prices
Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to China are up 158 percent. These sales have occured despite Chinese restrictions on many other Australian farm products. Trade ministers from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Recent swings in temperatures across the EU could leave winter crops weakened and more vulnerable to damage. EU winter crops have escaped significant damage so far, thanks to a warmer-than-average winter, except for an early December cold spell. Temperatures in recent weeks...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat continues to be scarce in general across Latin America, but especially in Argentina. It is strange to see Argentina’s export volumes practically equal to those of Brazil. It is even possible that the cumulative December/January total may see Brazil exporting more wheat than Ar...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Lower on Technical Follow-Through; KC Wheat Rallies on Bull Spreading
The CBOT ended the week on a quiet note with wheat futures strengthening amid commercial buying and bull spreading while soymeal futures traded sharply lower following Wednesday’s key reversal. Corn was caught somewhat in the middle and settled fractionally lower for the day with more lat...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7625/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.065/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $463.7/short ton, down $7.5 f...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egyptian government officials said the “dollar crisis” has now been corrected and that foreign payments are being made by banks and delayed goods are clearing customs. Extra efforts have been made to r...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, Live Cattle Post New Contract Highs; Grains End Firmer
The CBOT was stronger to start the day with corn and wheat finding mild, continued strength from last week’s rallies. The winterkill threats to the HRW crop mean that KCBT wheat is the upside leader in wheat futures with funds slowly shifting to the long side of the market. Corn ticked hi...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8375/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.3525/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $488.7/short ton, up $15.2 fr...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt has reportedly secured a long-term contract with Germany to buy wheat from the European nation, though details on the agreement are sparse. Russia’s total wheat planted area for 2023 is projected to reach 29.05 Mha, down from 29.468 Mha seeded in 2022. Roma...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains that have fallen so far in 2023 indicate a possible change in the South American weather pattern. They have been good in terms of quantity and regularity and have been covering practically the entire agricultural area. In addition, forecasts continue to be favorable for the next week...
Market Commentary: Bullish Signals in KCBT Wheat and Corn; WPI 2023 Acreage Forecasts
The CBOT capped a volatile week with a relatively quiet day of trading. That didn’t mean there weren’t ample technical developments, however, with several markets forming or hinting at trend reversals. For the day, corn futures showed some strength early but ended flat while the soy...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.095/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $473.5/short ton, down $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Macro and Russians
After a brutal Monday, futures have been clawing back gains the past few days. Trading on Thursday was helped along by a U.S. Q4 2022 GDP number that pleased outside markets. Consumer spending underpinned a 2.9 percent increase in GDP, though there remain warnings of another shoe to drop. That...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for January 13-19, 2023 Wheat: Net sales of 500,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 84 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 264,200 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week, but up 15 percen...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.825/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.235/bushel, up $0.21 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $477.1/short ton, up $11.6 from...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Finally Finds a Bid; Cold Storage Report Bearish Livestock
The CBOT saw another day of strength in wheat as funds continue to pare back their short positions in that market while commercial buying interest picked up, especially for HRW wheat. In contrast to the weakness observed earlier this week, the soy complex rallied across the board on a combinati...
Battle for Acres
S&P Global is the first private firm to issue an acreage planted forecast following USDA’s prediction for the upcoming campaign, but it will not be the last. The annual exercise is riskier this far out from when planting actually occurs because markets can change and farmers have cert...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.025/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $465.5/short ton, up $5.7 fr...
Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soy Complex Weakens Further
Corn and wheat futures posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with Monday’s selloff yielding higher prices on a combination of profit taking and short-covering. The soy complex attempted the same but could not hold gains as showers fell across Argentina again and are forecast to contin...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.77/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.345/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $14.885/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $459.8/short ton, down $2.1 fr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Turkish authorities have decided, in their infinite wisdom, to ban the importation of any grain or coproduct containing GMO trait MON810 while allowing the importation if the trait is the stacked GMO trait of MON8...
Market Commentary: South American Rains Create CBOT Selling Flood
The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain, but this week it’s falling on Argentina and causing a flood of CBOT sell orders. Corn, wheat, and the soy complex all came under heavy selling pressure to start the week as funds liquidated fresh longs that quickly became underwater. The odd th...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.6625/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.2/bushel, down $0.215 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $14.9025/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $461.9/short ton, down $1.8...
Cure for High Prices
Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to China are up 158 percent. These sales have occured despite Chinese restrictions on many other Australian farm products. Trade ministers from...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Recent swings in temperatures across the EU could leave winter crops weakened and more vulnerable to damage. EU winter crops have escaped significant damage so far, thanks to a warmer-than-average winter, except for an early December cold spell. Temperatures in recent weeks...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat continues to be scarce in general across Latin America, but especially in Argentina. It is strange to see Argentina’s export volumes practically equal to those of Brazil. It is even possible that the cumulative December/January total may see Brazil exporting more wheat than Ar...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Lower on Technical Follow-Through; KC Wheat Rallies on Bull Spreading
The CBOT ended the week on a quiet note with wheat futures strengthening amid commercial buying and bull spreading while soymeal futures traded sharply lower following Wednesday’s key reversal. Corn was caught somewhat in the middle and settled fractionally lower for the day with more lat...
Summary of Futures
Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7625/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.415/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.065/bushel, down $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $463.7/short ton, down $7.5 f...