One of the interesting sideshows of the U.S. government shutdown is its impact on the agricultural futures markets. It's interesting because there's no way to predict or measure what that impact might be. USDA has gone dark as has its websites. Here's what we're missing because of this disruption:
Daily export sales announcements. Maybe there haven't been any export sales in excess of 100,000 MT, but we don't know that. Weekly export sales data that shows total sales for the week and updates marketing year totals by destination. Weekly crop progress reports that show crop condition ratings, winter wheat planting progress, harvest progress, etc. Weekly commitment of traders reports that do give the market a sense of where the specul...
As predicted, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the last meeting before the midterm elections, likely in part because of the election (see WPI 19 October and 22 September). The decision comes at the tail end of a midterm election cycle that has been marked by the two parties campaigning...
Key Takeaways: WPI’s new EU rapeseed crushing margin models point to weaker processing returns over the next four months due to higher rapeseed procurement costs and weaker product values. Statistical forecasts call for German crushing margins to decline from €181/MT to €...
Key Takeaways: The tariff burden rose sharply in 2025 and 2026: the effective rate on imports in HTS Chapters 1–24 increased from 1.53 percent in 2024 to 6.11 percent in 2025, before averaging 5.68 percent in January–August 2026. Headline rates tell only part of the story: exemptio...
