Ag commodity markets obviously are on a bull tear that is driving food inflation, but that high level of agri-food inflation may be masking some of the inflation in the general economy. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2 percent again in June and is up 2.2 percent from a year ago, hovering near the largest 12-month gain since September 2008. In the past three months, core prices are up at a 2.6 percent annual rate despite lower energy prices.These figures already are above the Federal Reserve's supposed target of 2 percent. According to the Fed and testimony from Chairman Ben Bernanke to the House Banking Committee this week, inflation is expected to be 1.2-1.7 percent this year compared with the Federal Open Marke...
What You Need to Know Today: Cattle futures extended their sharp selloff Friday as weakening cash cattle prices, deteriorating feedlot profitability, and reduced packer demand continued to weigh on the market. The inability of futures to sustain a rally following last week's bullish Cattle on...
Key Takeaways: WPI’s new EU rapeseed crushing margin models point to weaker processing returns over the next four months due to higher rapeseed procurement costs and weaker product values. Statistical forecasts call for German crushing margins to decline from €181/MT to €...
Key Takeaways: The tariff burden rose sharply in 2025 and 2026: the effective rate on imports in HTS Chapters 1–24 increased from 1.53 percent in 2024 to 6.11 percent in 2025, before averaging 5.68 percent in January–August 2026. Headline rates tell only part of the story: exemptio...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.