General Comments Today's markets were dominated by the November series of USDA reports that included yield and production updates and supply and demand revisions. Those reports are detailed in a separate analysis, but here are the quick bites:
Increased corn and soybean yields were offset by smaller harvested acres and increases in demand. The bearish surprise was that there was no change in the U.S. wheat export forecast that resulted in slightly higher ending supplies than expected. Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates were left unchanged from September at 88 and 53.5 MMT, respectively. Argentina's wheat crop was reduced to 11 MMT. That is above most other estimates.
The trade is looking for next week's crop...
As predicted, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the last meeting before the midterm elections, likely in part because of the election (see WPI 19 October and 22 September). The decision comes at the tail end of a midterm election cycle that has been marked by the two parties campaigning...
Key Takeaways: WPI’s new EU rapeseed crushing margin models point to weaker processing returns over the next four months due to higher rapeseed procurement costs and weaker product values. Statistical forecasts call for German crushing margins to decline from €181/MT to €...
Key Takeaways: The tariff burden rose sharply in 2025 and 2026: the effective rate on imports in HTS Chapters 1–24 increased from 1.53 percent in 2024 to 6.11 percent in 2025, before averaging 5.68 percent in January–August 2026. Headline rates tell only part of the story: exemptio...
