World Perspectives

Recent Policy Analysis

Deep Bench to Fight RFK; China Market Risk; Thankless Job

Deep Bench to Fight RFKBeing the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture is usually a pretty good job. It involves doling out billions of dollars, the constituency is dominated by courteous country people, and controversies tend to be minor. The person serving the longest in any Cabinet position was Jame...

biofuel

Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation

As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...

Who Might Be the Next Ag Secretary?

As most Presidents-elect do, former President and President-elect Donald Trump has named his new White House Chief of Staff as his first appointment. It is Susi S. Wiles. Wiles was the co-manager of Trump’s 2024 campaign, and also was a key strategist focused on Florida in his 2016 and 2020 cam...

Transatlantic Trade War; Traders Beat Pollsters; Transatlantic Lesson

Transatlantic Trade WarU.S. equity markets rose yesterday on news of Donald Trump’s victory, while shares in Europe fell. The EU is America’s biggest trading partner and Trump promises tariffs. EU officials are strategizing on how to deal with a Trump presidency, with some urging cooperation, a...

The Day After

The political establishment in Washington is stunned following yesterday's rout by Donald Trump and the Republicans. The Democrats’ arch nemesis not only survived everything they threw at him, but he also took an increasing share of the minority voting block that they claimed as their own. It w...

Tax Policy Outlook Post Election

After the votes are fully counted, as a new Administration forms, and Congress organizes, WPI will take a deeper look into the policy implications of today’s election. From today’s point of view, unless this election is an unexpected blowout (countering polling data that shows it neck and neck...

EU Confirmation Hearings; Japanese Independence; Lemonades out of Lemons; Border War

EU Confirmation HearingsIn a few months, it will be the turn of either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris’s cabinet nominees to seek confirmation by the legislature but this week it is Europe’s Commission designates confronting the hurdle of the European Parliament (EP). Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner...

biofuel

Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025

Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely...

Transatlantic Inverse; Farm Bill Chances

Transatlantic InverseDepending on tomorrow’s election outcome, American businesses will either be saddled with more taxes, regulations, and attacks on consolidation, or be hit with higher import tariffs and maybe the goofy ideas of people like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. By contrast, Europe has now...

State Directed Meat; Living Space

State Directed MeatUSDA has been issuing loans and grants to startup livestock businesses with the goal of diversifying the industry, providing producers with more options, and lowering the price of meat. Now Pure Prairie Poultry of Minnesota, a beneficiary of $38.7 million in loan guarantees a...

Misdirected Fire; Over-Capacity

Misdirected FireThe Kamala Harris campaign is frustrated that the economy is hot, inflation has dissipated to just 2.4 percent, and yet voters are not feeling it. Politicians learned long ago to never tell the voters they are wrong and have misperceptions. Consequently, she has been acknowledgi...

Interest Rate Outlook

The Fed meets next week, the day after the election. It looks likely there will be a rate cut again for the second time in as many meetings. The federal funds futures market is pricing in a 95.4 percent probability of a cut. At the September meeting, Fed members signaled another 50 basis point...

Post-Election Transatlantic

The EU’s dependency on the U.S. for both defense and economic well-being has focused discussions in Brussels on what the relationship will look like should Donald Trump win on 5 November. The Biden Administration initiated a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in 2021 with designs to coordinate...

Newsom for President; Fake Meat Lacks Standing

Newsome for PresidentUntil this past Friday, U.S. ethanol producers feared that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) might make an effort to limit the marketing of their products in the Golden State. Now they are singing in the streets as California Governor Gavin Newsom instructed CARB to...

RFK Jr Role in a Potential Trump Admin Worrying Aggies

With the election one week from tomorrow, many aggies are turning their attention to the probable role of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a Trump Administration should Trump win the election. Over the last week, this is literally the biggest topic of conversation among this analyst’s contacts and sour...

BRICS Grain Exchange; Transatlantic Gaslighting

BRICS Grain ExchangeVladmir Putin used his BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia to formally suggest the creation of a grain exchange by the bloc of countries. He said such an exchange could later be expanded to other products and that it would " contribute to the formation of fair and predictable...

Inflation Disconnect; Economic Opinions

Inflation DisconnectEconomists including those at the Federal Reserve use so-called core inflation when assessing the level of rising prices in the economy. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices since they are considered more volatile, and less directly impacted by the Fed’s monetary p...

U.S. Dietary Guidelines: Booze and Junk Food

Every five years, the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, issued by USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are updated. The new guidelines will be issued next year for 2025-2030. This guidance provides advice on what to eat and drink to meet nutrient needs, promote health, and...

Policy Shortz

U.S. – EU Reset: The transatlantic relationship must be reset after the upcoming election. Brussels produced a state-by-state report on Europe’s trade and investment engagement to help set the environment. U.S. technology firms argue it is ludicrous for Europe to think it can be competitive in...

Biggest Monopoly; Aggies Challenge Trump; Food Safety Risks and Perceptions

Biggest MonopolyReflecting voter concerns about food inflation, both Harris and Trump are attacking the food system and implying concerns about monopoly power. But no industry is as monopolistic as politics where consumer choice is often limited to just two parties. Voters are near evenly split...

State Control of Markets – Russia; State Control of Markets – U.S

State Control of MarketsRussia’s agriculture ministry recently “suggested” that grain exporters not sell wheat internationally below the minimum price of $250/MT FOB. The minimum price approach is less clumsy than export quotas but is a harder stop than Moscow’ use of export taxes to try and ma...

Asymmetric on Tariffs

Most economists are clear in describing tariffs as a border tax. Their impacts include increasing costs on consumers and reducing trade, and thus self-harming a nation’s economic well-being. Yet, it is difficult to identify a nation that doesn’t use tariffs, and most utilize them more than the...

Farm Subsidies on the March

Subsidies can increase output and there are many ways to subsidize an industry, but that doesn’t mean that countries should do it.   Cost of Production: The EU badly wants to become self-sufficient in plant protein. More than four decades ago Europe lost a dispute settlement cas...

Politics: Will 2024 Election Yield an Unprecedented Triple Flip?

The 2024 election is three weeks from tomorrow. This cycle has been unusual. The campaign started as a Biden versus Trump rematch of the 2020 campaign, the first such rematch since 1956 (only the seventh time in history and only the second time since 1900). However, President Biden stepped down...

Deep Bench to Fight RFK; China Market Risk; Thankless Job

Deep Bench to Fight RFKBeing the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture is usually a pretty good job. It involves doling out billions of dollars, the constituency is dominated by courteous country people, and controversies tend to be minor. The person serving the longest in any Cabinet position was Jame...

biofuel

Senate Committee Changes and Ethanol Legislation

As WPI noted a week ago on 4 November, As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely to include a role for electric vehicles, and a renewable fuels policy that will focus on reducing c...

Who Might Be the Next Ag Secretary?

As most Presidents-elect do, former President and President-elect Donald Trump has named his new White House Chief of Staff as his first appointment. It is Susi S. Wiles. Wiles was the co-manager of Trump’s 2024 campaign, and also was a key strategist focused on Florida in his 2016 and 2020 cam...

Transatlantic Trade War; Traders Beat Pollsters; Transatlantic Lesson

Transatlantic Trade WarU.S. equity markets rose yesterday on news of Donald Trump’s victory, while shares in Europe fell. The EU is America’s biggest trading partner and Trump promises tariffs. EU officials are strategizing on how to deal with a Trump presidency, with some urging cooperation, a...

The Day After

The political establishment in Washington is stunned following yesterday's rout by Donald Trump and the Republicans. The Democrats’ arch nemesis not only survived everything they threw at him, but he also took an increasing share of the minority voting block that they claimed as their own. It w...

Tax Policy Outlook Post Election

After the votes are fully counted, as a new Administration forms, and Congress organizes, WPI will take a deeper look into the policy implications of today’s election. From today’s point of view, unless this election is an unexpected blowout (countering polling data that shows it neck and neck...

EU Confirmation Hearings; Japanese Independence; Lemonades out of Lemons; Border War

EU Confirmation HearingsIn a few months, it will be the turn of either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris’s cabinet nominees to seek confirmation by the legislature but this week it is Europe’s Commission designates confronting the hurdle of the European Parliament (EP). Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner...

biofuel

Renewable Fuel Policy Outlook in 2025

Tomorrow is election day; the make-up of Congress and who is in the White House is expected to have an impact on renewable fuel policy in 2025. As a general rule, a Republican agenda is likely to be friendlier to liquid fuels, especially petroleum fuels, whereas a Democrat agenda is more likely...

Transatlantic Inverse; Farm Bill Chances

Transatlantic InverseDepending on tomorrow’s election outcome, American businesses will either be saddled with more taxes, regulations, and attacks on consolidation, or be hit with higher import tariffs and maybe the goofy ideas of people like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. By contrast, Europe has now...

State Directed Meat; Living Space

State Directed MeatUSDA has been issuing loans and grants to startup livestock businesses with the goal of diversifying the industry, providing producers with more options, and lowering the price of meat. Now Pure Prairie Poultry of Minnesota, a beneficiary of $38.7 million in loan guarantees a...

Misdirected Fire; Over-Capacity

Misdirected FireThe Kamala Harris campaign is frustrated that the economy is hot, inflation has dissipated to just 2.4 percent, and yet voters are not feeling it. Politicians learned long ago to never tell the voters they are wrong and have misperceptions. Consequently, she has been acknowledgi...

Interest Rate Outlook

The Fed meets next week, the day after the election. It looks likely there will be a rate cut again for the second time in as many meetings. The federal funds futures market is pricing in a 95.4 percent probability of a cut. At the September meeting, Fed members signaled another 50 basis point...

Post-Election Transatlantic

The EU’s dependency on the U.S. for both defense and economic well-being has focused discussions in Brussels on what the relationship will look like should Donald Trump win on 5 November. The Biden Administration initiated a Trade and Technology Council (TTC) in 2021 with designs to coordinate...

Newsom for President; Fake Meat Lacks Standing

Newsome for PresidentUntil this past Friday, U.S. ethanol producers feared that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) might make an effort to limit the marketing of their products in the Golden State. Now they are singing in the streets as California Governor Gavin Newsom instructed CARB to...

RFK Jr Role in a Potential Trump Admin Worrying Aggies

With the election one week from tomorrow, many aggies are turning their attention to the probable role of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a Trump Administration should Trump win the election. Over the last week, this is literally the biggest topic of conversation among this analyst’s contacts and sour...

BRICS Grain Exchange; Transatlantic Gaslighting

BRICS Grain ExchangeVladmir Putin used his BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia to formally suggest the creation of a grain exchange by the bloc of countries. He said such an exchange could later be expanded to other products and that it would " contribute to the formation of fair and predictable...

Inflation Disconnect; Economic Opinions

Inflation DisconnectEconomists including those at the Federal Reserve use so-called core inflation when assessing the level of rising prices in the economy. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices since they are considered more volatile, and less directly impacted by the Fed’s monetary p...

U.S. Dietary Guidelines: Booze and Junk Food

Every five years, the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, issued by USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are updated. The new guidelines will be issued next year for 2025-2030. This guidance provides advice on what to eat and drink to meet nutrient needs, promote health, and...

Policy Shortz

U.S. – EU Reset: The transatlantic relationship must be reset after the upcoming election. Brussels produced a state-by-state report on Europe’s trade and investment engagement to help set the environment. U.S. technology firms argue it is ludicrous for Europe to think it can be competitive in...

Biggest Monopoly; Aggies Challenge Trump; Food Safety Risks and Perceptions

Biggest MonopolyReflecting voter concerns about food inflation, both Harris and Trump are attacking the food system and implying concerns about monopoly power. But no industry is as monopolistic as politics where consumer choice is often limited to just two parties. Voters are near evenly split...

State Control of Markets – Russia; State Control of Markets – U.S

State Control of MarketsRussia’s agriculture ministry recently “suggested” that grain exporters not sell wheat internationally below the minimum price of $250/MT FOB. The minimum price approach is less clumsy than export quotas but is a harder stop than Moscow’ use of export taxes to try and ma...

Asymmetric on Tariffs

Most economists are clear in describing tariffs as a border tax. Their impacts include increasing costs on consumers and reducing trade, and thus self-harming a nation’s economic well-being. Yet, it is difficult to identify a nation that doesn’t use tariffs, and most utilize them more than the...

Farm Subsidies on the March

Subsidies can increase output and there are many ways to subsidize an industry, but that doesn’t mean that countries should do it.   Cost of Production: The EU badly wants to become self-sufficient in plant protein. More than four decades ago Europe lost a dispute settlement cas...

Politics: Will 2024 Election Yield an Unprecedented Triple Flip?

The 2024 election is three weeks from tomorrow. This cycle has been unusual. The campaign started as a Biden versus Trump rematch of the 2020 campaign, the first such rematch since 1956 (only the seventh time in history and only the second time since 1900). However, President Biden stepped down...

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