Ups and Downs in EU AG; Brazil Targeted
Ups and Downs in EU AG Farmers in Europe cannot catch a break. For years they were they toast of the EU with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) garnering over 60 percent of the budget. Then five years ago the Greens came to dominate European politics and their Green Deal and Farm to Fork refo...
Trade War Dynamics
First quarter global merchandise trade accelerated faster than expected as everyone expedited purchases ahead of tariffs and potential slowing of import demand. These market exchanges have likely remained accelerated ahead of the now 1 August tariff deadline, but increased costs were apparent i...
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy; Purple Hair, Not Purple Food
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy Texas has become the seventh state to prohibit food products cultured from animal cells. Another half dozen states are considering legislative restrictions on these products, often at the behest of the agriculture sector. Bloomberg produced the map below on st...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs
Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of 1970, which sets standards to ensure eggs and egg products are properly labeled and packaged while preempting state law that imposes additio...
Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology
Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagnant system, someone to clear out the sclerotic elites clinging to their benefits. The U.S. president and his realpolitik has prompted every n...
Tariffs and Geopolitics
Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent of Canadians see the U.S. as the “greatest threat” to the Great White North. However, most Americans do not really think about...
Trump Tariff Letters Issued
Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trade deal is reached. These tariffs would affect all imports beyond key sectoral tariffs already proposed. In the letters, Trump warned countri...
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened; African Moves; WTO Reforms
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened President Trump announced that the 9 July deadline for trade agreements with the U.S. to avoid reciprocal tariffs will be extended to 1 August. Eighteen countries are being targeted for trade negotiations, and a smaller subset received letters today on...
Skinny Farm Bill Left to Finish
President Trump said yesterday that the U.S. is nearing several new trade deals and that letters will be sent to trading partners by 9 July warning of increased tariffs set to take effect on 1 August. That announcement effectively extends the administration’s trade deadline from this week...
Vietnam Deal; EU Green Targets
Vietnam Deal As the 9 July deadline approaches, a second trade deal was announced by President Trump. He says the U.S. will apply a 20 percent tariff on imports from Vietnam (versus 46 percent reciprocal), and 40 percent if the product was transshipped. The duty could vary based on domestic con...
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12; Power of Ag; Trump Power
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12 Delineating the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution from the rights of the states has long been a legal fight in the U.S. Thus, it was notable last night when the U.S. Senate voted 99-1 to remove language from the Big Beautiful Bill that would have restric...
Un-Trade Agreements; Ag in Big Beautiful Bill; CAP Controversy
Un-Trade Agreements It did not take long for Canadian officials to reverse their digital services tax after President Trump threatened to end trade negotiations. Canada is second only to Mexico in terms of trade dependence on the U.S. Many Canadian producers are already hurting from trade sanct...
Crop Life America Registers Strong Comments on MAHA Strategy
In a 12-page letter to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Crop Life America (CLA) outlined a number of issues for the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) strategy on pesticides to further “our shared goals of promoting children’s health and ensuring that pesticide regulatory...
Trade Negotiation Update; Miscellaneous
Trade Negotiation Update There were no shortages of eye-opening news reports this week and the notable one on trade late today was President Trump’s announcement that he is ending trade negotiations with Canada. Ottawa’s decision to impose a retroactive digital services tax on Ameri...
Ignoring Margins; Trump Tariff Win
Ignoring Margins The U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights held a hearing yesterday on, Reducing Regulatory Burdens to Unlock Innovation and Spur New Entry and the meat packing industry was front and center. UC-Berkely Senior Fellow Doha Mekki co...
Trade Agreements Challenged; No Non-reciprocals; Miniature Meat Plant
Trade Agreements Challenged The 9 July deadline for countries to reach individual trade agreements with the U.S. is fast approaching and while the Trump Administration says negotiations are progressing, there are some high hurdles. Protectionists from India to Europe are pressuring their policy...
One Big Beautiful Bill Unveiled in the Senate
The Senate Finance Committee and its chairman Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) have unveiled their tax bill as part of budget reconciliation to extend the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. According to the Committee, the bill … prevents a more-than $4 trillion tax hike on American families a...
G7 Disappointments; Deregulation and Consolidation
G7 Disappointments The Israeli-Iran war stole the thunder of the G7 meeting in Canada and while President Trump said ahead of the conference that he hoped to achieve trade deals, only the UK’s Keir Starmer has managed an agreement. However, G7 members are moving closer to Mr. Trump’...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
Selective Deportation; G-7 Outcomes; U.S. Has the Meat
Selective Deportation The New York Times credited USDA Secretary Brooke Rolins with persuading President Trump to leave undocumented workers in agriculture alone. It’s bad enough that the President’s most reliable voting block is also the most threatened by retaliatory tariffs, conc...
Immigration and Trade: Update on the Chaos
After ICE raids of businesses – with more to come according to Tom Homan – President Trump admitted that his strict immigration policies are negatively impacting at least the farming and hotel sectors. A recent television news story showed empty radish fields in California devoid of...
Outclassed; Unifying Food Safety; Inflation’s Real Issue
Outclassed In a nearly five-hour hearing before the U.S. House Agriculture Committee, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins proved again that she is one of the most politically astute of President Trump’s Cabinet members. She was adept at responding to a wide range of questions, nearly all of the...
Calm Amidst Upheaval; Unilateral Impacts; Ethanol’s Rise
Calm Amidst Upheaval Data or surveys about attitudes or opinions are said to be “soft” data since they are emotive based and less reliable. Soft data in recent months had been signaling angst about the U.S. economy and Mr. Trump’s handling of it. Yet, hard data has reflected g...
New Meat Giant Created in Brazil; Most of Revenue from U.S.
While the MAHA report from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. still cites consolidation in the meat packing sector, Brazil’s competition regulator, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), has approved a merger of two major Brazilian meat processors,...
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up; CAP Rush; Europe’s Military and Agriculture
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up The big story involves U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators meeting in London this week. Discussions lasted three hours today and resume tomorrow but no one sees agriculture being involved in the talks. Instead, the focus is on export controls where Beijing is limiting...
USDA Trade Estimates Report Comes Under Scrutiny
USDA’s delay of its quarterly agricultural trade report, and exclusion of its typical explanatory text, raised concerns because the moves raised questions about the objectivity of the data. The bottom line is that the trade is uneasy about USDA statistics now. USDA data is considered a go...
Agriculture Front and Center; Confounding Farmers; Miscellaneous Fun; Farm Bill Fight; Feeding Gaza
Agriculture Front and Center It is notable that all the examples provided by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt of high foreign tariffs involved agricultural products. Her specific examples included, “50 percent from the European Union on American dairy, you have a 700 percent t...
Getting Tough; Abundance Debate
Getting Tough It isn’t just the U.S. judicial system offering up hurdles to President Trump’s trade war. It has been noted that different countries have taken different approaches in responding to the tariff war. Smaller southwest and southeast Asian countries have generally b...
TACO or Not; U.S. – Japan Relations; Reciprocal Trade Momentum; Nutritional Police State
TACO or Not Financial markets have again steadied following the renewed war of words between Beijing and Washington. The two competitors cannot agree on much and signals that Xi and Trump will talk this week may or may not be true. Meanwhile, more U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum kick in this...
Tariff Threats Escalation Again: China and EU
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce import tariffs by a combined 115 percentage points, down to 10 percent. The agreement was intended to cool years of tariffs and trade conflict that came to a head on 2 April with the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. At the time, both sides indicated...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
Trade Negotiation Hurdles; Bond Market Conflict; Companionship or Dinner
Trade Negotiation Hurdles U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet again tomorrow in a bid to reach an agreement by 9 July; there is a lot of skepticism about its relative success. Politico Europe reporter Camille Gijs notes that politicians in Brussels have no appetite to give the White House big co...
MAHA Targets Glyphosate
The seminal report on the state of America’s health, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, focuses on the environmental exposure to pesticides in the food supply, which the report says is linked to developmental issues and chronic diseases. The report says that 40 percent of child...
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate and finding a deal with the mercurial American leader are two different things. Some believe Mr. Trump wants specific purchasing commitments...
EU Non-Proposal; Miscellaneous
EU Non-Proposal The EU has drafted a trade proposal for the Trump Administration that appears to be more fluff than meaningful stuff. Brussels offers to follow international labor rights and uphold high environmental standards. The EU already does this and is therefore not a concession. It offe...
Ups and Downs in EU AG; Brazil Targeted
Ups and Downs in EU AG Farmers in Europe cannot catch a break. For years they were they toast of the EU with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) garnering over 60 percent of the budget. Then five years ago the Greens came to dominate European politics and their Green Deal and Farm to Fork refo...
Trade War Dynamics
First quarter global merchandise trade accelerated faster than expected as everyone expedited purchases ahead of tariffs and potential slowing of import demand. These market exchanges have likely remained accelerated ahead of the now 1 August tariff deadline, but increased costs were apparent i...
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy; Purple Hair, Not Purple Food
States’ Rights and Hypocrisy Texas has become the seventh state to prohibit food products cultured from animal cells. Another half dozen states are considering legislative restrictions on these products, often at the behest of the agriculture sector. Bloomberg produced the map below on st...
Latest Tariff Threat on Brazil Expected to Hit Beef Prices
Brazil, a major ag exporter, significant player in the global economy, and founding member of the BRICS bloc, is now in President Trump’s crosshairs, receiving a “tariff letter” with the threat of 50 percent tariffs. Imports from Brazil to the U.S. have faced a minimum 1...
Livestock Roundup: Feds Sue California over Eggs
Yesterday, the federal government filed suit against California over Proposition 12’s effects on egg prices under the Egg Products Inspection Act of 1970, which sets standards to ensure eggs and egg products are properly labeled and packaged while preempting state law that imposes additio...
Trump’s Realpolitik; Tariff Reality; Farmer Gerontology
Trump’s Realpolitik Peter Thiel and others have said they backed Mr. Trump for the presidency not as ideal governance, but as a disruptor of a stagnant system, someone to clear out the sclerotic elites clinging to their benefits. The U.S. president and his realpolitik has prompted every n...
Tariffs and Geopolitics
Reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump and his trade policies are notably different for each country and are evolving. A Pew survey shows that 59 percent of Canadians see the U.S. as the “greatest threat” to the Great White North. However, most Americans do not really think about...
Trump Tariff Letters Issued
Over the weekend and yesterday, President Trump sent letters to 14 countries proposing new blanket rate tariffs to go into effect on 1 August unless a trade deal is reached. These tariffs would affect all imports beyond key sectoral tariffs already proposed. In the letters, Trump warned countri...
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened; African Moves; WTO Reforms
Trade Deadline Extended, Threats Sharpened President Trump announced that the 9 July deadline for trade agreements with the U.S. to avoid reciprocal tariffs will be extended to 1 August. Eighteen countries are being targeted for trade negotiations, and a smaller subset received letters today on...
Skinny Farm Bill Left to Finish
President Trump said yesterday that the U.S. is nearing several new trade deals and that letters will be sent to trading partners by 9 July warning of increased tariffs set to take effect on 1 August. That announcement effectively extends the administration’s trade deadline from this week...
Vietnam Deal; EU Green Targets
Vietnam Deal As the 9 July deadline approaches, a second trade deal was announced by President Trump. He says the U.S. will apply a 20 percent tariff on imports from Vietnam (versus 46 percent reciprocal), and 40 percent if the product was transshipped. The duty could vary based on domestic con...
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12; Power of Ag; Trump Power
Prop 12 Lives, Long Live Prop 12 Delineating the Supremacy Clause of the U.S. Constitution from the rights of the states has long been a legal fight in the U.S. Thus, it was notable last night when the U.S. Senate voted 99-1 to remove language from the Big Beautiful Bill that would have restric...
Un-Trade Agreements; Ag in Big Beautiful Bill; CAP Controversy
Un-Trade Agreements It did not take long for Canadian officials to reverse their digital services tax after President Trump threatened to end trade negotiations. Canada is second only to Mexico in terms of trade dependence on the U.S. Many Canadian producers are already hurting from trade sanct...
Crop Life America Registers Strong Comments on MAHA Strategy
In a 12-page letter to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, Crop Life America (CLA) outlined a number of issues for the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) strategy on pesticides to further “our shared goals of promoting children’s health and ensuring that pesticide regulatory...
Trade Negotiation Update; Miscellaneous
Trade Negotiation Update There were no shortages of eye-opening news reports this week and the notable one on trade late today was President Trump’s announcement that he is ending trade negotiations with Canada. Ottawa’s decision to impose a retroactive digital services tax on Ameri...
Ignoring Margins; Trump Tariff Win
Ignoring Margins The U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights held a hearing yesterday on, Reducing Regulatory Burdens to Unlock Innovation and Spur New Entry and the meat packing industry was front and center. UC-Berkely Senior Fellow Doha Mekki co...
Trade Agreements Challenged; No Non-reciprocals; Miniature Meat Plant
Trade Agreements Challenged The 9 July deadline for countries to reach individual trade agreements with the U.S. is fast approaching and while the Trump Administration says negotiations are progressing, there are some high hurdles. Protectionists from India to Europe are pressuring their policy...
One Big Beautiful Bill Unveiled in the Senate
The Senate Finance Committee and its chairman Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) have unveiled their tax bill as part of budget reconciliation to extend the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. According to the Committee, the bill … prevents a more-than $4 trillion tax hike on American families a...
G7 Disappointments; Deregulation and Consolidation
G7 Disappointments The Israeli-Iran war stole the thunder of the G7 meeting in Canada and while President Trump said ahead of the conference that he hoped to achieve trade deals, only the UK’s Keir Starmer has managed an agreement. However, G7 members are moving closer to Mr. Trump’...
Proposed RVOs: Record Levels of Biomass Based Diesel
On Friday, the EPA announced a proposed rule to establish required Renewable Fuel Standard volumes obligations, known as the required volume obligations (RVOs) and the percentage standards for 2026 and 2027. The announcement also partially waived the 2025 cellulosic biofuel volume requirement a...
Selective Deportation; G-7 Outcomes; U.S. Has the Meat
Selective Deportation The New York Times credited USDA Secretary Brooke Rolins with persuading President Trump to leave undocumented workers in agriculture alone. It’s bad enough that the President’s most reliable voting block is also the most threatened by retaliatory tariffs, conc...
Immigration and Trade: Update on the Chaos
After ICE raids of businesses – with more to come according to Tom Homan – President Trump admitted that his strict immigration policies are negatively impacting at least the farming and hotel sectors. A recent television news story showed empty radish fields in California devoid of...
Outclassed; Unifying Food Safety; Inflation’s Real Issue
Outclassed In a nearly five-hour hearing before the U.S. House Agriculture Committee, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins proved again that she is one of the most politically astute of President Trump’s Cabinet members. She was adept at responding to a wide range of questions, nearly all of the...
Calm Amidst Upheaval; Unilateral Impacts; Ethanol’s Rise
Calm Amidst Upheaval Data or surveys about attitudes or opinions are said to be “soft” data since they are emotive based and less reliable. Soft data in recent months had been signaling angst about the U.S. economy and Mr. Trump’s handling of it. Yet, hard data has reflected g...
New Meat Giant Created in Brazil; Most of Revenue from U.S.
While the MAHA report from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. still cites consolidation in the meat packing sector, Brazil’s competition regulator, the Administrative Council for Economic Defense (CADE), has approved a merger of two major Brazilian meat processors,...
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up; CAP Rush; Europe’s Military and Agriculture
Trade Negotiations Ramp Up The big story involves U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators meeting in London this week. Discussions lasted three hours today and resume tomorrow but no one sees agriculture being involved in the talks. Instead, the focus is on export controls where Beijing is limiting...
USDA Trade Estimates Report Comes Under Scrutiny
USDA’s delay of its quarterly agricultural trade report, and exclusion of its typical explanatory text, raised concerns because the moves raised questions about the objectivity of the data. The bottom line is that the trade is uneasy about USDA statistics now. USDA data is considered a go...
Agriculture Front and Center; Confounding Farmers; Miscellaneous Fun; Farm Bill Fight; Feeding Gaza
Agriculture Front and Center It is notable that all the examples provided by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt of high foreign tariffs involved agricultural products. Her specific examples included, “50 percent from the European Union on American dairy, you have a 700 percent t...
Getting Tough; Abundance Debate
Getting Tough It isn’t just the U.S. judicial system offering up hurdles to President Trump’s trade war. It has been noted that different countries have taken different approaches in responding to the tariff war. Smaller southwest and southeast Asian countries have generally b...
TACO or Not; U.S. – Japan Relations; Reciprocal Trade Momentum; Nutritional Police State
TACO or Not Financial markets have again steadied following the renewed war of words between Beijing and Washington. The two competitors cannot agree on much and signals that Xi and Trump will talk this week may or may not be true. Meanwhile, more U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum kick in this...
Tariff Threats Escalation Again: China and EU
In May, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce import tariffs by a combined 115 percentage points, down to 10 percent. The agreement was intended to cool years of tariffs and trade conflict that came to a head on 2 April with the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. At the time, both sides indicated...
Sorting Through Tariffs
On 2 April, President Trump announced the U.S. will impose a minimum baseline of 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods into the U.S. as well as higher reciprocal tariffs on exporting countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods. Countries that will see tariffs higher than the baseline 10 perc...
Trade Negotiation Hurdles; Bond Market Conflict; Companionship or Dinner
Trade Negotiation Hurdles U.S. and EU trade negotiators meet again tomorrow in a bid to reach an agreement by 9 July; there is a lot of skepticism about its relative success. Politico Europe reporter Camille Gijs notes that politicians in Brussels have no appetite to give the White House big co...
MAHA Targets Glyphosate
The seminal report on the state of America’s health, the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) report, focuses on the environmental exposure to pesticides in the food supply, which the report says is linked to developmental issues and chronic diseases. The report says that 40 percent of child...
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning; BBB Fails Farmers; Optimal Tariffs
U.S.-EU Delay Reckoning Brussels responded quickly to President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs to 50 percent. But a renewed commitment to negotiate and finding a deal with the mercurial American leader are two different things. Some believe Mr. Trump wants specific purchasing commitments...
EU Non-Proposal; Miscellaneous
EU Non-Proposal The EU has drafted a trade proposal for the Trump Administration that appears to be more fluff than meaningful stuff. Brussels offers to follow international labor rights and uphold high environmental standards. The EU already does this and is therefore not a concession. It offe...