Market Commentary: Down on the Day but Some Ups for the Week
Most of the major agricultural commodity contracts opened today’s trading session in the red and stayed that way to the close. Only feeder cattle and lean hogs managed small gains on the day. New contract lows were hit for December soyoil, September SRW and September HRW. Volume was overa...
Friday Shorts
Non-Meat: In a first, a Europe-based company has sought EU approval to market lab-grown meat, in this case fake foie gras. Some member states have already banned such products. While lab-grown meat remains expensive, and plant-based meat substitutes have faced declining popularity, the increase...
Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?
Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market. Clearly, there is a reason for this request as cocoa prices have been exceptionally volatile and futures more than doubled over the nine months from August 2023 through April 2024. I...
June Cold Storage Report
June 2024 total red meat and poultry stocks were up slightly from May but 5.4 percent below June 2023 levels due to sharp declines in poultry and pork stocks. Total poultry stocks were down 7.8 percent year-over-year (YoY) due to reductions in broiler slaughter for the month. Total pork stocks...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Weather, Export Sales; Wheat Dips on Yields, Exports
The headline for the CBOT on Thursday was the unexpected surge in soymeal export sales that boosted that market and new crop soybeans to strong gains for the day. Soymeal exports have been a prominent support for the market this year and their recent uptick after December futures fell to near $...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Exports and a Weather Premium
The Market The soy complex is on something of a rebound this week. A weather premium is finally being added as the outlook is hot and dry for August when plants in the U.S. Midwest are trying to set pods. U.S. new crop soybean export sales were impressive last week, and the combination has spar...
Livestock Roundup: Dairy Overview
As of 24 July, there have been 170 cases of HPAI in dairy herds across 13 States with the last being 22 July, in Colorado. The first confirmed case was 25 March Texas. In response to the outbreak, USDA has maintained mandatory testing requirements for lactating dairy cows prior to interstate m...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Momentum Switch
The CBOT had relatively little fresh news upon which to trade Wednesday, which meant markets were largely at the mercy of fund positioning and existing trends. As equity markets fell sharply for the day and currencies wobbled, traders began looking for safe-haven assets, which helped diminish C...
Trump versus Harris Trade Policy; Africa Shines; Trade and the Environment
Trump versus Harris Trade Policy While trade policy analysts assess the future of their vocation under either a Trump or Harris presidency, there is not a lot of uncertainty. Mr. Trump has already advertised his intentions to raise tariffs. He views the U.S. trade deficit as the barometer of ho...
Decline in U.S. Flour Trade
The International Grains Council recently increased its forecast for global flour trade by 11 percent to 16.1 MMT, though that would still be a decline of 4 percent from 2023/24. Turkey dominates the global trade in flour, with some saying it does so in an unfair manner. Kazakhstan is the other...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Market Commentary: Midwest Heat Concerns Corn, Soybeans; Cattle Finally React to COF Report
After two days of exciting trade, the CBOT settled down a little on Tuesday to reflect more deeply on market fundamentals. Monday’s Crop Progress data was largely reassuring for the major row crops, which helped create more stability in futures for the day. Wheat futures dipped but did no...
Counting Chickens: How Many Layers Are There Really?
At the end of June, there were 97.335 million birds depopulated due to HPAI; more than 75 percent at 73.5 birds, were egg layers. So far this month according to USDA, two more operations in Colorado have depopulated another 3.1 million birds, first on 8 July (1.8 million) and the second on 16 J...
U.S. Policy Battle; WTO Policy Battle; EU Policy Battle
U.S. Policy Battle The two major parties are past the battle over President Biden’s age and should move on to the policy differences. Democrats will try to take their own problem of Biden’s age and apply it to Trump but it is likely to have less salience. Instead, the election will...
Cultivating Canola Crystalizes
In just four years, U.S. production of canola has expanded by 73 percent, albeit from a smaller base. The production of biodiesel and renewable diesel are the drivers but more interesting is how part of the expansion is occurring. The incentives remain large for using oilseeds as feedstoc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT. Iraq is now self-sufficient in wheat. The government says that this will help it to ensure long-term food security and economic stability...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Funds Cover Shorts, Markets Forge Bottom?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with the strength originating from the soybean market and spilling over into corn and soybeans. The soybean market derived its strength from new forecasts of hot, dry weather for the U.S. Midwest as the soybean crop approaches pollination and pod filling...
Weekend Reading Insights
Because the information superhighway is tl;dr, we did the work for you and summarized the most relevant. Economic Growth: It is not just the result of building tangible things but making use of new ideas. It is relentless technological progress. Economist Daniel Susskind Trade Flows: Water foll...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 22 July)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Perceived Rice Shortage
Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and resulted in higher prices. The price of rice early this year was around $602/MT, substantially higher than the historical average of $381/MT...
Biden Drops Out 107 Days Before Election: What Now?
The 2024 election cycle has been unique from the outset, and it just got more so with President Joe Biden opting to step aside. This came after more than three weeks of a crescendo of calls from within the Democrat party for the President to drop out of the race. The trigger was Biden’s d...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...
Market Commentary: Down on the Day but Some Ups for the Week
Most of the major agricultural commodity contracts opened today’s trading session in the red and stayed that way to the close. Only feeder cattle and lean hogs managed small gains on the day. New contract lows were hit for December soyoil, September SRW and September HRW. Volume was overa...
Friday Shorts
Non-Meat: In a first, a Europe-based company has sought EU approval to market lab-grown meat, in this case fake foie gras. Some member states have already banned such products. While lab-grown meat remains expensive, and plant-based meat substitutes have faced declining popularity, the increase...
Cocoa: Will the Challenges of 2023 Continue into 2024?
Recently, WPI has received requests from a few clients to provide some analysis on the cocoa market. Clearly, there is a reason for this request as cocoa prices have been exceptionally volatile and futures more than doubled over the nine months from August 2023 through April 2024. I...
June Cold Storage Report
June 2024 total red meat and poultry stocks were up slightly from May but 5.4 percent below June 2023 levels due to sharp declines in poultry and pork stocks. Total poultry stocks were down 7.8 percent year-over-year (YoY) due to reductions in broiler slaughter for the month. Total pork stocks...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Rise on Weather, Export Sales; Wheat Dips on Yields, Exports
The headline for the CBOT on Thursday was the unexpected surge in soymeal export sales that boosted that market and new crop soybeans to strong gains for the day. Soymeal exports have been a prominent support for the market this year and their recent uptick after December futures fell to near $...
Oilseed Highlights: Good Exports and a Weather Premium
The Market The soy complex is on something of a rebound this week. A weather premium is finally being added as the outlook is hot and dry for August when plants in the U.S. Midwest are trying to set pods. U.S. new crop soybean export sales were impressive last week, and the combination has spar...
Livestock Roundup: Dairy Overview
As of 24 July, there have been 170 cases of HPAI in dairy herds across 13 States with the last being 22 July, in Colorado. The first confirmed case was 25 March Texas. In response to the outbreak, USDA has maintained mandatory testing requirements for lactating dairy cows prior to interstate m...
Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed on Momentum Switch
The CBOT had relatively little fresh news upon which to trade Wednesday, which meant markets were largely at the mercy of fund positioning and existing trends. As equity markets fell sharply for the day and currencies wobbled, traders began looking for safe-haven assets, which helped diminish C...
Trump versus Harris Trade Policy; Africa Shines; Trade and the Environment
Trump versus Harris Trade Policy While trade policy analysts assess the future of their vocation under either a Trump or Harris presidency, there is not a lot of uncertainty. Mr. Trump has already advertised his intentions to raise tariffs. He views the U.S. trade deficit as the barometer of ho...
Decline in U.S. Flour Trade
The International Grains Council recently increased its forecast for global flour trade by 11 percent to 16.1 MMT, though that would still be a decline of 4 percent from 2023/24. Turkey dominates the global trade in flour, with some saying it does so in an unfair manner. Kazakhstan is the other...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Market Commentary: Midwest Heat Concerns Corn, Soybeans; Cattle Finally React to COF Report
After two days of exciting trade, the CBOT settled down a little on Tuesday to reflect more deeply on market fundamentals. Monday’s Crop Progress data was largely reassuring for the major row crops, which helped create more stability in futures for the day. Wheat futures dipped but did no...
Counting Chickens: How Many Layers Are There Really?
At the end of June, there were 97.335 million birds depopulated due to HPAI; more than 75 percent at 73.5 birds, were egg layers. So far this month according to USDA, two more operations in Colorado have depopulated another 3.1 million birds, first on 8 July (1.8 million) and the second on 16 J...
U.S. Policy Battle; WTO Policy Battle; EU Policy Battle
U.S. Policy Battle The two major parties are past the battle over President Biden’s age and should move on to the policy differences. Democrats will try to take their own problem of Biden’s age and apply it to Trump but it is likely to have less salience. Instead, the election will...
Cultivating Canola Crystalizes
In just four years, U.S. production of canola has expanded by 73 percent, albeit from a smaller base. The production of biodiesel and renewable diesel are the drivers but more interesting is how part of the expansion is occurring. The incentives remain large for using oilseeds as feedstoc...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iraq’s government announced record local wheat purchases of 6.3 MMT. Iraq is now self-sufficient in wheat. The government says that this will help it to ensure long-term food security and economic stability...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Funds Cover Shorts, Markets Forge Bottom?
The CBOT was mostly higher for the day with the strength originating from the soybean market and spilling over into corn and soybeans. The soybean market derived its strength from new forecasts of hot, dry weather for the U.S. Midwest as the soybean crop approaches pollination and pod filling...
Weekend Reading Insights
Because the information superhighway is tl;dr, we did the work for you and summarized the most relevant. Economic Growth: It is not just the result of building tangible things but making use of new ideas. It is relentless technological progress. Economist Daniel Susskind Trade Flows: Water foll...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 22 July)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Perceived Rice Shortage
Rice prices have begun to normalize after spiking recently due to India fearing a shortage and imposing export restrictions. This sparked panic buying and resulted in higher prices. The price of rice early this year was around $602/MT, substantially higher than the historical average of $381/MT...
Biden Drops Out 107 Days Before Election: What Now?
The 2024 election cycle has been unique from the outset, and it just got more so with President Joe Biden opting to step aside. This came after more than three weeks of a crescendo of calls from within the Democrat party for the President to drop out of the race. The trigger was Biden’s d...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s 2024/25 new crop wheat campaign is already 95 percent sown, but the last plots are struggling to finish. The lack of surface moisture is delaying the sowing of the remaining plots, mainly for short cycles in the central agricultural region. The campaign will likely end w...