World Perspectives

Recent Ag Perspectives Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...

Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts

Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations may be headed for an even deeper depression. The European Parliament voted against endorsing the trade mandate sought by Brussels for talks...

feed-grains

March Corn Update

There have been changes to the 2018/19 corn balance sheet since our first look at the potential supply/demand outlook on 18 January. USDA reduced the export and ethanol forecasts by 75 million bushels and 25 million bushels, respectively, in the March WASDE. The result was a 100 million bushel...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...

EU-U.S. Tentative Deal on Beef

Even though the EU-U.S. trade agreement talks are not moving apace, largely because of the EU reluctance to include agriculture versus U.S. insistence that it must be on the table, there does seem to be movement on beef exports. The parties have reached an “agreement in principle” t...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has reversed the downward trend it had been following since January. The buyers/consumers have certainly appreciated the $20 collapse, and they don’t want to miss the opportunity to lock in the current prices. Russia’s exports have reached 30 MMT,...

biofuel

More Small Refinery Exemptions Granted

The EPA announced yesterday that it had granted five additional small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2017, reducing the number of pending petitions in the queue for that year as of 1 March from seven to two. This brings the total number of exemptions to 9.4 percent of the 19.28 billion gallons...

Against the Grain; Bipartisan Horses; China and EU Deals

Against the Grain Demographics are destiny, and with 60 percent of the world’s population and some of its fastest-growing economies, this is supposed to be the Asian Century. That is the theme of the book “The Future is Asian” by Singaporean geopolitical consultant Parag Khann...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil is always in the details, which won’t be known until the deal is made public. Much of the commentary on various business channels toda...

Trump’s China Mystery; The EU Bullseye; SOEs in Focus

Trump’s China Mystery U.S. President Donald’s Trump’s characterization of his negotiations with the Chinese are not adding up unless Xi’s government is having troubles. He has softened his strategy, and the Chinese are playing nice. He is as unconventional as ever. Mr. T...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...

livestock

China Pork Purchase and Trade Deal Outlook; Big Pork Supplies Pressure Hog Prices

China Buys Pork amid Outlook for Bigger Trade Agreement While the U.S.-China trade talks continue, the most recent weekly export sales report from USDA shows that China was back in the market for U.S. pork for the week that ended 7 March.Net pork sales totaled 50,300 MMT with 47 percent (23,800...

Family Farms versus Big Ag—Again

The next U.S. presidential election occurs in about 20 months, but the campaign season is already well underway. President Donald Trump is more than halfway through his first term. He has a solid political base of supporters and a firm grip on the Republican Party, and his nomination to seek a...

soy-oilseeds biofuel

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; EU Biodiesel, Palm Oil Futures; EU Rapeseed

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated U.S. exporters were quite successful selling soybeans to China and elsewhere in the week ending 7 March. Meanwhile, soymeal and soyoil export sales were relatively modest. Net soybean export sales for shipm...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they are deemed too early at that time to be very meaningful. It will instead only use farmer surveys, weather/yield models and satellite data. Fie...

Creative Destruction; Ignoring Economics

Creative Destruction It is often said that it is easier to use government to stop something from happening than to use it to make something happen. Some members in the U.S. House of Representatives this week suggested that banks be held liable for global warming and other ills since they financ...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4-7 March 2019 Grain prices on the domestic market mainly decreased under pressure from negative trends on the export market. The average milling wheat export price dropped $2/MT to $228/MT FOB Black Sea, but purchase prices grew to $201-203/MT CPT-Black Sea port. Meanwhi...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends February Economic Data Points to Serious Weakness Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 percent last month, the lowest level since May 2017. It should be noted that a figure below 50 p...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record lows. It began rather gradually in the overnight session, which saw trading volume notably higher than average. Prices started out slightly l...

biofuel

Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed; Annual Ethanol Use Down

Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed The EPA released its proposed waiver for year-round E15 use today. As previously reported (click here), it will now be on a tight approval deadline before the summer driving season starts. Given the risk of regulatory uncertainty and needed infrastructure...

Anti-Reform’s Fishy Excuses; Commodity Glut; Government over People

Anti-Reform’s Fishy Excuses USTR Robert Lighthizer told the Senate Finance Committee that the WTO rules are out of date and need reform. This is evidenced by reports that U.S. complaints about the self-designation of developing country status are causing collateral damage to negotiations...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybeans; U.S. Census Soymeal Data Revision; U.S. Soy Plantings; WASDE Soy Changes

Conab Reduces Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today reduced its estimate for the country’s 2019 soybean crop by 1.6 percent from 115.343 MMT to 113.459 MMT. This change is based on an average yield of 3.168 MT/hectare (47.1 bushels/acre). Conab al...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Where Have All the Bulls Gone?

It has been a very tough few weeks for grain and soy market bulls, assuming there are still any left. Those markets have been in a rather steady retreat with hardly any respite, although they have managed a bounce today. Along the way, the wheat and corn markets have set a series of new contrac...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...

Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts

Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations may be headed for an even deeper depression. The European Parliament voted against endorsing the trade mandate sought by Brussels for talks...

feed-grains

March Corn Update

There have been changes to the 2018/19 corn balance sheet since our first look at the potential supply/demand outlook on 18 January. USDA reduced the export and ethanol forecasts by 75 million bushels and 25 million bushels, respectively, in the March WASDE. The result was a 100 million bushel...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...

EU-U.S. Tentative Deal on Beef

Even though the EU-U.S. trade agreement talks are not moving apace, largely because of the EU reluctance to include agriculture versus U.S. insistence that it must be on the table, there does seem to be movement on beef exports. The parties have reached an “agreement in principle” t...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market has reversed the downward trend it had been following since January. The buyers/consumers have certainly appreciated the $20 collapse, and they don’t want to miss the opportunity to lock in the current prices. Russia’s exports have reached 30 MMT,...

biofuel

More Small Refinery Exemptions Granted

The EPA announced yesterday that it had granted five additional small refinery exemptions (SREs) for 2017, reducing the number of pending petitions in the queue for that year as of 1 March from seven to two. This brings the total number of exemptions to 9.4 percent of the 19.28 billion gallons...

Against the Grain; Bipartisan Horses; China and EU Deals

Against the Grain Demographics are destiny, and with 60 percent of the world’s population and some of its fastest-growing economies, this is supposed to be the Asian Century. That is the theme of the book “The Future is Asian” by Singaporean geopolitical consultant Parag Khann...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil is always in the details, which won’t be known until the deal is made public. Much of the commentary on various business channels toda...

Trump’s China Mystery; The EU Bullseye; SOEs in Focus

Trump’s China Mystery U.S. President Donald’s Trump’s characterization of his negotiations with the Chinese are not adding up unless Xi’s government is having troubles. He has softened his strategy, and the Chinese are playing nice. He is as unconventional as ever. Mr. T...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...

livestock

China Pork Purchase and Trade Deal Outlook; Big Pork Supplies Pressure Hog Prices

China Buys Pork amid Outlook for Bigger Trade Agreement While the U.S.-China trade talks continue, the most recent weekly export sales report from USDA shows that China was back in the market for U.S. pork for the week that ended 7 March.Net pork sales totaled 50,300 MMT with 47 percent (23,800...

Family Farms versus Big Ag—Again

The next U.S. presidential election occurs in about 20 months, but the campaign season is already well underway. President Donald Trump is more than halfway through his first term. He has a solid political base of supporters and a firm grip on the Republican Party, and his nomination to seek a...

soy-oilseeds biofuel

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; EU Biodiesel, Palm Oil Futures; EU Rapeseed

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated U.S. exporters were quite successful selling soybeans to China and elsewhere in the week ending 7 March. Meanwhile, soymeal and soyoil export sales were relatively modest. Net soybean export sales for shipm...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they are deemed too early at that time to be very meaningful. It will instead only use farmer surveys, weather/yield models and satellite data. Fie...

Creative Destruction; Ignoring Economics

Creative Destruction It is often said that it is easier to use government to stop something from happening than to use it to make something happen. Some members in the U.S. House of Representatives this week suggested that banks be held liable for global warming and other ills since they financ...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4-7 March 2019 Grain prices on the domestic market mainly decreased under pressure from negative trends on the export market. The average milling wheat export price dropped $2/MT to $228/MT FOB Black Sea, but purchase prices grew to $201-203/MT CPT-Black Sea port. Meanwhi...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends February Economic Data Points to Serious Weakness Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 percent last month, the lowest level since May 2017. It should be noted that a figure below 50 p...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record lows. It began rather gradually in the overnight session, which saw trading volume notably higher than average. Prices started out slightly l...

biofuel

Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed; Annual Ethanol Use Down

Year-Round E15 and RIN Reform Proposed The EPA released its proposed waiver for year-round E15 use today. As previously reported (click here), it will now be on a tight approval deadline before the summer driving season starts. Given the risk of regulatory uncertainty and needed infrastructure...

Anti-Reform’s Fishy Excuses; Commodity Glut; Government over People

Anti-Reform’s Fishy Excuses USTR Robert Lighthizer told the Senate Finance Committee that the WTO rules are out of date and need reform. This is evidenced by reports that U.S. complaints about the self-designation of developing country status are causing collateral damage to negotiations...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybeans; U.S. Census Soymeal Data Revision; U.S. Soy Plantings; WASDE Soy Changes

Conab Reduces Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today reduced its estimate for the country’s 2019 soybean crop by 1.6 percent from 115.343 MMT to 113.459 MMT. This change is based on an average yield of 3.168 MT/hectare (47.1 bushels/acre). Conab al...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Where Have All the Bulls Gone?

It has been a very tough few weeks for grain and soy market bulls, assuming there are still any left. Those markets have been in a rather steady retreat with hardly any respite, although they have managed a bounce today. Along the way, the wheat and corn markets have set a series of new contrac...

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