World Perspectives

Recent Ag Perspectives Analysis

Martin Luther King Day

Monday, 21 January is a U.S. holiday. The markets and World Perspectives, Inc. are closed that day. Please note that the next issue of Ag Perspectives will be published the following day, 22 January.  ...

Trade Policy Wowzas; Weighing Risks; Monopoly Hunters

Trade Policy Wowzas It is a long weekend for the commodity futures market, and policymakers have left a bevy of developments to think about, including the following: China: It is still a mercantilist concept, but China is reportedly offering to ramp up a six-year buying spree of U.S. goods, pur...

House Ag Committee Majority Members

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) has announced the new Democratic members of the House Agriculture Committee (see below). First, though, there was a slight surprise concerning some returning members. For committee assignments, both party caucuses generally designate exclusive or so-cal...

feed-grains biofuel

U.S. Corn Ending Supplies Will Be Smaller

As said every year at this time when we take a very preliminary look at the corn outlook for the coming marketing year, it will be all about yield. The U.S. corn farmer has enjoyed four consecutive years of incredibly good yields, but we tend to lose sight of that and automatically plug in anot...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of that enthusiasm was present today in either of those markets, though. Meanwhile, soybean futures made a run at double-digit gains before closi...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least through January. Otherwise, inputs were lacking, however, and trading was uninspired. The overnight trade gave no hint of the rally that took of...

livestock

Missing Reports; Climate and Cattle; Happy Chicken Wing Day

Cattle on Feed Report is MIA USDA’s Cattle on Feed (COF) report is normally released on the third Friday of each month. The inventory data is for the month it is issued, and the placements and marketing numbers are for the previous month. The January COF report, however, will be missing t...

soy-oilseeds

South American Soybeans and Weather

In these days of the USDA blackout, the soybean market is left to focus on the prospects from U.S. China trade negotiations and South American weather. Of course, this situation would not change much if USDA were back in business as those would remain the key issues, but its final U.S. soybean...

Government Shutdown Options; Trade Policy Delays; Weather and When

Government Shutdown Options Using federal employees as ransom in a White House/congressional fight over a very small federal spending program (border security) is both unsophisticated and morally wrong. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has now cancelled the use of the House chamber for the president&...

soy-oilseeds biofuel

Oilseed Highlights: Malaysian Biodiesel; Soymeal and DDGS; Argentine Soy Crushers; Pakistan and Cargill

Malaysia to Double Use of Palm-Based Biodiesel The glut and low prices of palm oil have caused the government of Malaysia to double the blending requirement for biodiesel with diesel from the current 10 percent to 20 percent by 2020, according to Minister of Primary Industries Teresa Kok. Oil W...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: CBOT Starts Slow, Scrambles to Exciting Finish

Morning price action at the CBOT was firm but mostly boring. That all changed around midday, however, as rumors of export sales, combined with headlines that Argentina’s soybean crop will be smaller than expected, sparked a large (by today’s standards) rally in the grains. Soybeans...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...

Diluted Brinksmanship; Dems Pick Trade Leader; Polite or Duplicitous; Glyphocide

Diluted Brinksmanship Politicians do not usually make unpleasant decisions until and unless they are forced into a corner. That is the whole point of brinkmanship in politics - to force a change in position. However, the two current and most prominent efforts at brinkmanship, the U.S. trade war...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8-11 January 2019 All domestic grain prices (except for milling rye) rose in RUB expression, but the growth in USD expression was significant due to the strengthening ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price increased $2/MT to $240/MT FOB Black Sea, while...

livestock feed-grains wheat

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Hogs Crash and Burn, Cattle Rally

CBOT prices were higher today after yesterday’s selloff. There was little fundamental reason for the move, except that traders must have sold what they wanted yesterday, leaving buyers to gain a slight advantage. Commercial purchases of “cheap” corn and soybeans was notable, a...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Sharp Correction in Soymeal Inventory With China’s soybean imports down sharply last month versus December 2017, the nationwide estimated soymeal inventory fell substantially last week as sales activity ramped up to prepare for the Chinese New Year. As of 11 January, that invento...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This difficulty was a signal that Tuesday might be a tough day for the markets, and so it was. Markets assume that China has purchased 5 MMT of soybea...

Pick Your Messenger; Markets Judges are (Flawed) People Too; Betrayals All Around; Common Transatlantic Problems

Pick Your Messenger President Trump assured farmers attending the American Farm Bureau annual meeting that the negotiations with China are going great and they will be the beneficiaries. He said a deal is in the offing due to the duties he imposed on Chinese goods. By contrast, U.S. Trade Repre...

biofuel

EPA Administrator Confirmation Hearing and Biofuel Outlook

The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW) will hold a confirmation hearing tomorrow for Andrew Wheeler, nominated last week by President Trump to be the EPA administrator. He has been the acting in that position  since July and is the former deputy administrator. Wheeler was...

soy-oilseeds softs energy

Brainstorming without USDA

It takes something like the current partial shutdown of the U.S. government to make those involved with agricultural markets realize how much we depend on the stream of data from USDA. The regularity of things like export sales reports, livestock reports, and estimates of production, supplies a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Corn Breaks Important Technical Mark

Corn and soybeans plunged today on news from USTR Lighthizer that the U.S. and China made little progress on trade talks. The market had previously been encouraged by rumors of ag and energy purchases, including crude oil and DDGS, that theoretically signaled China’s increasing willingnes...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean Inspections; China’s Soybean Imports; South American Weather; NOPA Crush

Higher Soybean Inspections Last Week but Not Many for China Yesterday’s USDA export inspections report indicated 1,085,251 MT of soybeans were inspected in the week ending 10 January. That was up 59 percent from 682,029 MT the previous week but down from 1,244,979 MT in the same week of 2...

wheat feed-grains biofuel

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong winds are reportedly causing docking and visibility difficulties due to sand and dust storms. Egypt normally experiences strong khamaseen winds...

Martin Luther King Day

Monday, 21 January is a U.S. holiday. The markets and World Perspectives, Inc. are closed that day. Please note that the next issue of Ag Perspectives will be published the following day, 22 January.  ...

Trade Policy Wowzas; Weighing Risks; Monopoly Hunters

Trade Policy Wowzas It is a long weekend for the commodity futures market, and policymakers have left a bevy of developments to think about, including the following: China: It is still a mercantilist concept, but China is reportedly offering to ramp up a six-year buying spree of U.S. goods, pur...

House Ag Committee Majority Members

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) has announced the new Democratic members of the House Agriculture Committee (see below). First, though, there was a slight surprise concerning some returning members. For committee assignments, both party caucuses generally designate exclusive or so-cal...

feed-grains biofuel

U.S. Corn Ending Supplies Will Be Smaller

As said every year at this time when we take a very preliminary look at the corn outlook for the coming marketing year, it will be all about yield. The U.S. corn farmer has enjoyed four consecutive years of incredibly good yields, but we tend to lose sight of that and automatically plug in anot...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of that enthusiasm was present today in either of those markets, though. Meanwhile, soybean futures made a run at double-digit gains before closi...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least through January. Otherwise, inputs were lacking, however, and trading was uninspired. The overnight trade gave no hint of the rally that took of...

livestock

Missing Reports; Climate and Cattle; Happy Chicken Wing Day

Cattle on Feed Report is MIA USDA’s Cattle on Feed (COF) report is normally released on the third Friday of each month. The inventory data is for the month it is issued, and the placements and marketing numbers are for the previous month. The January COF report, however, will be missing t...

soy-oilseeds

South American Soybeans and Weather

In these days of the USDA blackout, the soybean market is left to focus on the prospects from U.S. China trade negotiations and South American weather. Of course, this situation would not change much if USDA were back in business as those would remain the key issues, but its final U.S. soybean...

Government Shutdown Options; Trade Policy Delays; Weather and When

Government Shutdown Options Using federal employees as ransom in a White House/congressional fight over a very small federal spending program (border security) is both unsophisticated and morally wrong. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has now cancelled the use of the House chamber for the president&...

soy-oilseeds biofuel

Oilseed Highlights: Malaysian Biodiesel; Soymeal and DDGS; Argentine Soy Crushers; Pakistan and Cargill

Malaysia to Double Use of Palm-Based Biodiesel The glut and low prices of palm oil have caused the government of Malaysia to double the blending requirement for biodiesel with diesel from the current 10 percent to 20 percent by 2020, according to Minister of Primary Industries Teresa Kok. Oil W...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: CBOT Starts Slow, Scrambles to Exciting Finish

Morning price action at the CBOT was firm but mostly boring. That all changed around midday, however, as rumors of export sales, combined with headlines that Argentina’s soybean crop will be smaller than expected, sparked a large (by today’s standards) rally in the grains. Soybeans...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...

Diluted Brinksmanship; Dems Pick Trade Leader; Polite or Duplicitous; Glyphocide

Diluted Brinksmanship Politicians do not usually make unpleasant decisions until and unless they are forced into a corner. That is the whole point of brinkmanship in politics - to force a change in position. However, the two current and most prominent efforts at brinkmanship, the U.S. trade war...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8-11 January 2019 All domestic grain prices (except for milling rye) rose in RUB expression, but the growth in USD expression was significant due to the strengthening ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price increased $2/MT to $240/MT FOB Black Sea, while...

livestock feed-grains wheat

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Hogs Crash and Burn, Cattle Rally

CBOT prices were higher today after yesterday’s selloff. There was little fundamental reason for the move, except that traders must have sold what they wanted yesterday, leaving buyers to gain a slight advantage. Commercial purchases of “cheap” corn and soybeans was notable, a...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Sharp Correction in Soymeal Inventory With China’s soybean imports down sharply last month versus December 2017, the nationwide estimated soymeal inventory fell substantially last week as sales activity ramped up to prepare for the Chinese New Year. As of 11 January, that invento...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This difficulty was a signal that Tuesday might be a tough day for the markets, and so it was. Markets assume that China has purchased 5 MMT of soybea...

Pick Your Messenger; Markets Judges are (Flawed) People Too; Betrayals All Around; Common Transatlantic Problems

Pick Your Messenger President Trump assured farmers attending the American Farm Bureau annual meeting that the negotiations with China are going great and they will be the beneficiaries. He said a deal is in the offing due to the duties he imposed on Chinese goods. By contrast, U.S. Trade Repre...

biofuel

EPA Administrator Confirmation Hearing and Biofuel Outlook

The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW) will hold a confirmation hearing tomorrow for Andrew Wheeler, nominated last week by President Trump to be the EPA administrator. He has been the acting in that position  since July and is the former deputy administrator. Wheeler was...

soy-oilseeds softs energy

Brainstorming without USDA

It takes something like the current partial shutdown of the U.S. government to make those involved with agricultural markets realize how much we depend on the stream of data from USDA. The regularity of things like export sales reports, livestock reports, and estimates of production, supplies a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Corn Breaks Important Technical Mark

Corn and soybeans plunged today on news from USTR Lighthizer that the U.S. and China made little progress on trade talks. The market had previously been encouraged by rumors of ag and energy purchases, including crude oil and DDGS, that theoretically signaled China’s increasing willingnes...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean Inspections; China’s Soybean Imports; South American Weather; NOPA Crush

Higher Soybean Inspections Last Week but Not Many for China Yesterday’s USDA export inspections report indicated 1,085,251 MT of soybeans were inspected in the week ending 10 January. That was up 59 percent from 682,029 MT the previous week but down from 1,244,979 MT in the same week of 2...

wheat feed-grains biofuel

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong winds are reportedly causing docking and visibility difficulties due to sand and dust storms. Egypt normally experiences strong khamaseen winds...

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