World Perspectives

Recent Ag Perspectives Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...

Rise Above the WTO; Pros and Cons of Relocate

Rise Above the WTO Channeling Donald Trump’s incendiary style, the normally thoughtful Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, has raised the issue of throwing China out of the WTO. The comment is notable since many trading partners would currently like to th...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 August 2018 Grain prices increased due to rising prices on international markets and weakening of the ruble. Milling wheat export prices rose $3/MT to $235/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports grew to $187-192/MT CPT-Black Sea port. While the average fee...

feed-grains wheat livestock

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Livestock futures were higher on modest support while grains futures gave back all of Turnaround Tuesday’s gains. Would that make today a Washout Wednesday? Regardless, falling crude oil, a higher dollar, and rising trade concerns left the CBOT trading in the red today.   Wall s...

soy-oilseeds

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...

Keeping the Feds Out of Nutrition

The 2018 Farm Bill is in the House-Senate conference committee. Three former USDA secretaries, Tom Vilsack (Obama), Ann Veneman (Bush 43) and Dan Glickman (Clinton), penned an op-ed in The Hill newspaper entitled, “Focusing on Nutrition is Paramount to Getting a Sound, Bipartisan Far...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Soy Export Taxes; NOPA Crush Estimate; China’s U.S. Soybean Imports

Argentina Suspends Export Tax Reductions for Soyoil and Soymeal The government of Argentina today announced that reductions in the export tax rates for soymeal and soyoil will be suspended for the next six months. Since the beginning of this year, those rates along with that for soybeans have b...

Receding the Trade War; New Food Standard; Commodities/Recession

Receding the Trade War Sinking emerging-market currencies coupled with trade war impacts on economic growth are raising fears of a global recession. China’s auto sales have begun sliding, and Beijing is reportedly increasing infrastructure spending while selling U.S. dollars and warning i...

feed-grains wheat livestock

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

After two days of aggressive selling, the CBOT turned green as a Turnaround Tuesday got underway. Wheat and the soy complex (especially soymeal) lead the way higher and corn followed obligingly. Exports seem to be the market’s main focus now, with continuing drought in the Black Sea regio...

wheat feed-grains

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Afghanistan is facing its lowest wheat crop since 2011 due to the lack of rain and snowfall. Forecasts say that the country could need to import as much as 2.5 MMT in 2018. Not only are t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Debates Over Yields

The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...

biofuel

Ethanol More Expensive to Blenders, but Fuel Demand a Record

Things are bearish for ethanol producers despite a strong gasoline market. Ethanol margins are being squeezed to their lowest point in about six months, mostly on the decrease in ethanol prices. However, corn prices ranging above last year are contributing to the pressure. Renewable Identificat...

Pre-Existing Policy; Calm Before Storm; EU Pain; Killing Brazilian Ag

Rationalizing Pre-Existing Policy Chinese Vice Minister Han Jun boasted that in light of the trade war, his country can readily shift its sources for agricultural products away from the U.S. He said the impact on China would be limited, but U.S. farmers would of course be conversely hurt. U.S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Where Did All Those Bushels Come From?

USDA surprised the markets last Friday by raising its corn and soybean yield estimates significantly from the June report. While increases weren’t unexpected, it was their sheer magnitude that caused the very bearish market reaction. Some analysts also thought USDA would use a more cautio...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets were lower in the Sunday evening session as the hangover from last Friday’s bearish USDA corn and soybean numbers continued. The wheat numbers that day were actually supportive, but wheat was the weakest market overnight and again today with double-digit losses throughout most of...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans China’s soybean demand remains at a standstill for all positions. Last week’s market activity (or lack thereof) was the same as it has been for the past few months with Chinese soybean crushers having no margin to buy, sellers looking for demand, and basis slowly falling. E...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Smile! Despite the WASDE, Corn Still Leans Bullish

Over the past two weeks, WPI has started publishing a weekly article containing Implied Volatility “smile” charts for key agricultural commodities. The methodology for our research can be found here, and last week’s article here. This week, we’re providing two charts for...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was well supported last week. The bearish USDA WASDE report didn’t have a strong impact on the cash prices in Russia and Ukraine. The domestic price in southern Russia rallied about $18/MT last week. In RUB expression, it is approaching the highs seen in...

biofuel

WASDE Ethanol Margin Forecast and EIA Projections

Ethanol production nameplate capacity has exceeded 16 billion gallons, growing more than 700 million gallons or 5 percent from 2017 to 2018. The increase in the U.S. Energy Information Administration‘s (EIA’s) official capacity estimate has been due to expansions in plant capacity a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Bear is Back

USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...

Attacking Fake Food Claims; Friday Policy Shorts

Attacking Fake Food Claims Proactive work by the U.S. FDA has greatly helped the food industry while its inactions have harmed it. The GMO labeling debacle is just one example. Its newest commissioner, physician and policy wonk Scott Gottlieb, is apparently a man of action. He has jumped into t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

At the end of the day, it was all about what USDA had to say. That turned out to be another bearish report on corn and, especially, soybeans. The wheat numbers were somewhat positive. Markets were hoping USDA would make just modest upward yield adjustments for corn and soybeans, but it didn&rsq...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Turnaround Tuesday’s higher prices for grain and soy futures did not last long. An array of negative macro influences and forecasts for a week of favorable weather for the Plains and Midwest sent soy and wheat prices back near where they were at Monday’s close. Commodity prices in g...

Rise Above the WTO; Pros and Cons of Relocate

Rise Above the WTO Channeling Donald Trump’s incendiary style, the normally thoughtful Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, has raised the issue of throwing China out of the WTO. The comment is notable since many trading partners would currently like to th...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 August 2018 Grain prices increased due to rising prices on international markets and weakening of the ruble. Milling wheat export prices rose $3/MT to $235/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices at seaports grew to $187-192/MT CPT-Black Sea port. While the average fee...

feed-grains wheat livestock

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

Livestock futures were higher on modest support while grains futures gave back all of Turnaround Tuesday’s gains. Would that make today a Washout Wednesday? Regardless, falling crude oil, a higher dollar, and rising trade concerns left the CBOT trading in the red today.   Wall s...

soy-oilseeds

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Data Point to Gradual Slowdown in China’s Domestic Economy A combination of tighter credit restrictions, the impacts of the trade dispute with the United States, increased environmental regulations and a slowing real estate market is weighing on consumer spending and industri...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in CME grain and soy futures bounced off yesterday’s closes in modest Turnaround Tuesday fashion, indicating that markets had absorbed the bearish news contained in last Friday’s August WASDE. Wheat contracts were the leader with 6-7 cent gains. Corn and soybeans fol...

Keeping the Feds Out of Nutrition

The 2018 Farm Bill is in the House-Senate conference committee. Three former USDA secretaries, Tom Vilsack (Obama), Ann Veneman (Bush 43) and Dan Glickman (Clinton), penned an op-ed in The Hill newspaper entitled, “Focusing on Nutrition is Paramount to Getting a Sound, Bipartisan Far...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Argentina’s Soy Export Taxes; NOPA Crush Estimate; China’s U.S. Soybean Imports

Argentina Suspends Export Tax Reductions for Soyoil and Soymeal The government of Argentina today announced that reductions in the export tax rates for soymeal and soyoil will be suspended for the next six months. Since the beginning of this year, those rates along with that for soybeans have b...

Receding the Trade War; New Food Standard; Commodities/Recession

Receding the Trade War Sinking emerging-market currencies coupled with trade war impacts on economic growth are raising fears of a global recession. China’s auto sales have begun sliding, and Beijing is reportedly increasing infrastructure spending while selling U.S. dollars and warning i...

feed-grains wheat livestock

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

After two days of aggressive selling, the CBOT turned green as a Turnaround Tuesday got underway. Wheat and the soy complex (especially soymeal) lead the way higher and corn followed obligingly. Exports seem to be the market’s main focus now, with continuing drought in the Black Sea regio...

wheat feed-grains

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Afghanistan is facing its lowest wheat crop since 2011 due to the lack of rain and snowfall. Forecasts say that the country could need to import as much as 2.5 MMT in 2018. Not only are t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Debates Over Yields

The August WASDE was filled with surprises compared with general expectations ahead of its release, and almost all either directly or indirectly concerned USDA’s yield estimates. Headlining the surprises, at least in the market’s eyes, were the estimated record-high U.S. corn yield...

biofuel

Ethanol More Expensive to Blenders, but Fuel Demand a Record

Things are bearish for ethanol producers despite a strong gasoline market. Ethanol margins are being squeezed to their lowest point in about six months, mostly on the decrease in ethanol prices. However, corn prices ranging above last year are contributing to the pressure. Renewable Identificat...

Pre-Existing Policy; Calm Before Storm; EU Pain; Killing Brazilian Ag

Rationalizing Pre-Existing Policy Chinese Vice Minister Han Jun boasted that in light of the trade war, his country can readily shift its sources for agricultural products away from the U.S. He said the impact on China would be limited, but U.S. farmers would of course be conversely hurt. U.S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Where Did All Those Bushels Come From?

USDA surprised the markets last Friday by raising its corn and soybean yield estimates significantly from the June report. While increases weren’t unexpected, it was their sheer magnitude that caused the very bearish market reaction. Some analysts also thought USDA would use a more cautio...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets were lower in the Sunday evening session as the hangover from last Friday’s bearish USDA corn and soybean numbers continued. The wheat numbers that day were actually supportive, but wheat was the weakest market overnight and again today with double-digit losses throughout most of...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans China’s soybean demand remains at a standstill for all positions. Last week’s market activity (or lack thereof) was the same as it has been for the past few months with Chinese soybean crushers having no margin to buy, sellers looking for demand, and basis slowly falling. E...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Smile! Despite the WASDE, Corn Still Leans Bullish

Over the past two weeks, WPI has started publishing a weekly article containing Implied Volatility “smile” charts for key agricultural commodities. The methodology for our research can be found here, and last week’s article here. This week, we’re providing two charts for...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was well supported last week. The bearish USDA WASDE report didn’t have a strong impact on the cash prices in Russia and Ukraine. The domestic price in southern Russia rallied about $18/MT last week. In RUB expression, it is approaching the highs seen in...

biofuel

WASDE Ethanol Margin Forecast and EIA Projections

Ethanol production nameplate capacity has exceeded 16 billion gallons, growing more than 700 million gallons or 5 percent from 2017 to 2018. The increase in the U.S. Energy Information Administration‘s (EIA’s) official capacity estimate has been due to expansions in plant capacity a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Bear is Back

USDA’s August production and supply/demand estimates were (again) bearish for soybeans, neutral-to-bearish corn and slightly bullish wheat. Following are some of the report highlights/surprises: The markets were expecting small U.S. corn and soybean yield increases. However, USDA ra...

Attacking Fake Food Claims; Friday Policy Shorts

Attacking Fake Food Claims Proactive work by the U.S. FDA has greatly helped the food industry while its inactions have harmed it. The GMO labeling debacle is just one example. Its newest commissioner, physician and policy wonk Scott Gottlieb, is apparently a man of action. He has jumped into t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

At the end of the day, it was all about what USDA had to say. That turned out to be another bearish report on corn and, especially, soybeans. The wheat numbers were somewhat positive. Markets were hoping USDA would make just modest upward yield adjustments for corn and soybeans, but it didn&rsq...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...

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