Weaker Consumer Finances Darken Economic Outlook, Despite Interest Rate Cuts
The past two weeks have seen the typical influx of macroeconomic data releases, most of which helped prompt the Federal Reserve to issue its 50-bps interest rate cut on Wednesday. While the interest rate cut was initially viewed as a positive signal (lower interest rates generally increase econ...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 September 2024 By Matt Herrington Baltic freight markets were mostly higher last week with the Capesize sector recovering from early weakness to trade 1 percent higher while the Panamax sector rose 9 percent. The bump came from better grain demand from the East Coast...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Amid Weak Russian Prices; Soyoil Rises on Exports; Macro Markets Boost Cattle
Markets and traders were broadly enthusiastic following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-bps cut to its target interest rate on Wednesday, but you wouldn’t know that from looking at the grain or oilseed markets. Wheat futures were sharply lower on Thursday amid pressure from French whe...
Oilseed Highlights: Bouncing Off Seasonal Lows
The Market U.S. soybeans have a nearly $1/bushel advantage as Brazilian basis moves higher. The result is that last week’s export sales were substantial. Rumors are rampant of more Chinese purchasing of U.S. soybeans. Argentina reportedly bought U.S. soybeans but those may washout on fina...
How Not to Resuscitate; Micromanagement
How Not to Resuscitate The European Parliament rejected the Commission’s proposal to allow tolerance levels for pesticide residues on some imported foods. Allowing a rat pack of politicians to directly decide scientific issues only contributes to domestic decline. Pesticides can be produc...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the pre-report consensus analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 September to be 101 percent of last year. August placements and marketing are expected to be 98.5 and 96.5 percent respectively of last year&rsq...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally
Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...
High Cost of Food; Sick Man in Europe
High Cost of Food Gallop’s annual Work and Education survey found that Americans have soured on the restaurant and grocery business. They still love farmers but have followed Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris in faulting the food industry for inflation. Over the past year, fav...
More Food, and Fewer Children
Few philanthropists are as focused on hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa than Bill Gates. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has spent billions of dollars on the problem. Activists do not like his promotion of GMO’s as a solution, but they are not as focused as he is on human suffering...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Three Wheat Peculiarity
The December SRW and HRW contracts closed lower today, while December HRS added value. These three wheat contracts often move in unison, but not always. And they have many other differences that define them. HRS is typically priced higher due to its greater protein content and thus demand, espe...
New EU Commission; America First Channels Sovereignty
New EU Commission European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made known her nominees to run the government in Brussels and the trade and agriculture portfolios have interesting selections. As was speculated previously, Christophe Hansen from Luxembourg has been picked for the agricultur...
Ad Hoc Farm Bill in the Works?
The current underlying farm bill (extended for a year last year) expires in 13 days. Another extension is likely, but there is also some movement on Capitol Hill to provide some ad hoc assistance with a potential extension. The 2024 federal fiscal year expires in 13 days. Without funding,...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reported to have arranged a private purchase of 430,000 MT of Russian wheat at a price of $231 CIF. GASC has not confirmed this purchase. Egypt’s wheat imports, on a dollar basis,...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Future of EU Agriculture; Future of U.S. Agriculture
Future of EU Agriculture Mercosur: Newly appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reiterated French opposition to a trade agreement with Mercosur at the upcoming G20 summit in Brazil, saying he is seeking coalition partners for a blocking minority. Meanwhile, Mercosur leaders receive...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 16 September)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
SUSTAINS Act Under the Radar
Today is the final day to submit comments to the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) under a request for information (RFI) on the Sponsoring USDA Sustainability Targets in Agriculture to Incentivize Natural Solutions (SUSTAINS) Act. That legislation was passed as a rider on the 2023 a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Thursday, a Ukrainian merchant vessel carrying grain and bound for Egypt was struck by a Russian missile in the Black Sea waters near Romania. The event is escalating the geopolitical tensions between the two countries and threatens Ukraine’s ability to protect ci...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
Hurricane Francine Energy Production Disruptions
The WTI Crude oil futures saw its third consecutive day of gains from the impacts of Hurricane Francine in the Gulf of Mexico and the contract remains up on the week. Francine made landfall on Wednesday on the Louisiana coast and has now been downgraded to a tropical storm. It is tr...
Weaker Consumer Finances Darken Economic Outlook, Despite Interest Rate Cuts
The past two weeks have seen the typical influx of macroeconomic data releases, most of which helped prompt the Federal Reserve to issue its 50-bps interest rate cut on Wednesday. While the interest rate cut was initially viewed as a positive signal (lower interest rates generally increase econ...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 20 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 20 September 2024 By Matt Herrington Baltic freight markets were mostly higher last week with the Capesize sector recovering from early weakness to trade 1 percent higher while the Panamax sector rose 9 percent. The bump came from better grain demand from the East Coast...
Market Commentary: Wheat Falls Amid Weak Russian Prices; Soyoil Rises on Exports; Macro Markets Boost Cattle
Markets and traders were broadly enthusiastic following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 50-bps cut to its target interest rate on Wednesday, but you wouldn’t know that from looking at the grain or oilseed markets. Wheat futures were sharply lower on Thursday amid pressure from French whe...
Oilseed Highlights: Bouncing Off Seasonal Lows
The Market U.S. soybeans have a nearly $1/bushel advantage as Brazilian basis moves higher. The result is that last week’s export sales were substantial. Rumors are rampant of more Chinese purchasing of U.S. soybeans. Argentina reportedly bought U.S. soybeans but those may washout on fina...
How Not to Resuscitate; Micromanagement
How Not to Resuscitate The European Parliament rejected the Commission’s proposal to allow tolerance levels for pesticide residues on some imported foods. Allowing a rat pack of politicians to directly decide scientific issues only contributes to domestic decline. Pesticides can be produc...
Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview
USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the pre-report consensus analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed as of 1 September to be 101 percent of last year. August placements and marketing are expected to be 98.5 and 96.5 percent respectively of last year&rsq...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rises on China Rumors, Brazil Drought; Hogs Extend Rally
Soybeans saw the liveliest action of the major grain/oilseed contracts on Wednesday with a strong, 18-cent overnight rally developing on rumors of Chinese export business. That rally fizzled, however, after the USDA did not report any daily “flash” export sales at 9 AM ET and the ma...
High Cost of Food; Sick Man in Europe
High Cost of Food Gallop’s annual Work and Education survey found that Americans have soured on the restaurant and grocery business. They still love farmers but have followed Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris in faulting the food industry for inflation. Over the past year, fav...
More Food, and Fewer Children
Few philanthropists are as focused on hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa than Bill Gates. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has spent billions of dollars on the problem. Activists do not like his promotion of GMO’s as a solution, but they are not as focused as he is on human suffering...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 9–13 September 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable with only corn slightly bullish, possibly showing the first real signs of a lower crop this season. Farmers are playing a waiting game switching to sunflower seed trade which is showing bullish sentiments and...
Market Commentary: Grains Drift Sideways as Harvest Looms; Livestock Rally on Strong Cash Trade
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with funds still paring back a few shorts in the corn and soy complex while resuming some light selling in wheat futures. There was little fresh news for the day, which contributed significantly to the lack of price action. Russian FOB offers continue to...
Three Wheat Peculiarity
The December SRW and HRW contracts closed lower today, while December HRS added value. These three wheat contracts often move in unison, but not always. And they have many other differences that define them. HRS is typically priced higher due to its greater protein content and thus demand, espe...
New EU Commission; America First Channels Sovereignty
New EU Commission European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made known her nominees to run the government in Brussels and the trade and agriculture portfolios have interesting selections. As was speculated previously, Christophe Hansen from Luxembourg has been picked for the agricultur...
Ad Hoc Farm Bill in the Works?
The current underlying farm bill (extended for a year last year) expires in 13 days. Another extension is likely, but there is also some movement on Capitol Hill to provide some ad hoc assistance with a potential extension. The 2024 federal fiscal year expires in 13 days. Without funding,...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s GASC is reported to have arranged a private purchase of 430,000 MT of Russian wheat at a price of $231 CIF. GASC has not confirmed this purchase. Egypt’s wheat imports, on a dollar basis,...
Market Commentary: Bears Win as CBOT Emerges from Post-WASDE Weekend
The CBOT emerged from the post-WASDE weekend with bears gaining the upper hand in a relatively light news day. Wheat was the big loser for the day as profit taking developed when futures neared the $6.00 mark that kicked values sharply lower. Corn and soybeans were in the red for the day as wel...
Future of EU Agriculture; Future of U.S. Agriculture
Future of EU Agriculture Mercosur: Newly appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reiterated French opposition to a trade agreement with Mercosur at the upcoming G20 summit in Brazil, saying he is seeking coalition partners for a blocking minority. Meanwhile, Mercosur leaders receive...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 16 September)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
SUSTAINS Act Under the Radar
Today is the final day to submit comments to the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) under a request for information (RFI) on the Sponsoring USDA Sustainability Targets in Agriculture to Incentivize Natural Solutions (SUSTAINS) Act. That legislation was passed as a rider on the 2023 a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat The Rosario Grain Exchange reports that wheat fields in the central, northern, and western parts of the planted area are suffering from a lack of water, raising doubts about its current production estimate of 20.5 MMT- a figure considered high by many in the market. In September, th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Last Thursday, a Ukrainian merchant vessel carrying grain and bound for Egypt was struck by a Russian missile in the Black Sea waters near Romania. The event is escalating the geopolitical tensions between the two countries and threatens Ukraine’s ability to protect ci...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
Market Commentary: It Was Wheat’s Week
Russia’s Vladimir Putin warned that Ukraine using Western long-range missiles to attack inside his country would bring NATO into the war. That and his threats to use nuclear weapons and the attack this week on a grain carrying ship in the Black Sea pressured the gold market and likely whe...
Hurricane Francine Energy Production Disruptions
The WTI Crude oil futures saw its third consecutive day of gains from the impacts of Hurricane Francine in the Gulf of Mexico and the contract remains up on the week. Francine made landfall on Wednesday on the Louisiana coast and has now been downgraded to a tropical storm. It is tr...