World Perspectives

Recent Ag Perspectives Analysis

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price was RUB 10,500/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Meanwhile, the average export price for 2019 feed barley dropped to $170/MT FOB Blac...

USMCA Codification; Mitigating the Mitigation; Expanding the Conflict

USMCA Codification What seemed unlikely just a few weeks ago now looks like a growing possibility – U.S. congressional passage of the USMCA. USTR Robert Lighthizer told members of Congress that he will do whatever it takes to mollify their concerns. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce says it no...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...

livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Food Inflation Reaches Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years The effects of the August 2018 outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) have continued to reverberate across China’s economy in 2019. In the second quarter of this year, food inflation has hit levels not seen since 2...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 June)

Update for 19 June: Prices/data updated through Friday's close.  Tweet  4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to reflect prices through Friday's close.  Launch Information:  WPI is proud to introduce our FOB Prices a...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 June)

Update for 19 June 2019:  Data updated for all listed routes.   Update for 26 April 2019: Weekly data updates have been pushed, along with new routes added from the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Enjoy!  Update for 24 April 2019: Thanks for the feedback and suggestions on the app...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...

Legs of War; No Cigar

Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful but not definitive. Both sides are dug in deep and short of one side or the other (or both). As it incurs economic calamity, this war would...

equities

News Impacts on Commodity Volatility

Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...

feed-grains

Shifting Baseline Leaves Real Crop Progress Still Unknown

USDA issued the crop progress report yesterday, but interpreting any meaning from it is almost impossible under current conditions because the baseline of intended planting has changed. Consider, 1 March planting intentions had indicated there would be 92.8 million acres of corn this year. That...

wheat feed-grains

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Tunisian government will be using drones this year to assess the grain crops as well as to try and identify those who have been setting fire to the wheat crops in parts of the country. However, some locals say only very high temperatures a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...

Is the Immigration-Tariff Deal with Mexico a Template for China Breakthrough?

There is a great deal of speculation on whether Presidents Trump and Xi will actually meetand/or come to a deal at the G20 Summit in Osaka on 28 and 29 June. Much of the rhetoric from the U.S. side has continued to take a tough stance in trade talks with China. However, it is now more than a ye...

Trump G20 Plan; Trade Policy Potpourri

Trump G20 Plan Donald Trump has been relentless at pressuring other NATO members to meet their commitments in terms of funding the organization’s military capacity. His admonitions have been backed by NATO’s secretary general and major media organizations like the Financial Times. I...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The weather-driven rally in CBOT soybeans has left Brazilian basis steadily weaker. It dropped 10 cents/bushels last week, especially for nearby positions, on slight Chinese demand. Despite the CBOT’s rally, Dalian soymeal and soyoil futures are steady/lower, reducing crus...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat Southeast Europe and Black Sea wheat markets are mostly steady to start the week despite rising prices in France, Germany and the U.S. The Black Sea region has been under a hot/dry weather pattern that has yet to create significant concerns for the wheat crop there. Soil moistures...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

No Growth Out of Bear Market

Historically, the keys to getting out of bear commodity markets have been economic growth and production cuts in response to low prices. Rising grain and oilseed stocks from the 1997 Asian financial crisis began to subside as the recovery in world gross domestic product (GDP) growth boosted dem...

Appropriations Amendments Tie USDA’s Hands and Scrutinize Administration on Trade

The House ag appropriations bill includes many restrictions on USDA’s use of appropriated funding, and there are 70 amendments that provide more stipulations. Yesterday was the deadline for filing amendments with the Rules Committee, which will meet next Tuesday to decide on the ones that...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...

Good/Bad Trade War; Government Procurement Challenge; POTUS Contender and Commodity Outlook

Good/Bad Trade War Political analysts correctly note how the Trump trade war has “scrambled” the politics in both major political parties. Politicians do not like to be wrong, and so the most common refrain is that Mr. Trump could have used a different course to address China’...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Beef

At the recent Southern Association of State Departments of Agriculture (SASDA) meeting in Fort Worth, the counsel general of the Chinese Consulate in Houston, Li Qiangmin, addressed the current state of U.S.-China trade relations. He said that if they normalize, China will be a strong customer...

Cold War II; Varying Farm Policy Models

Cold War II In a sign that President Trump is not going to be able to leverage a trade agreement out of China, Beijing issued notice that it will not yield to U.S. demands even with maximum pressure from Washington. This is the strength of a Marxist economy, and it is perhaps helped by a fallin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: PNW Soybeans; Damage to U.S. Soy Industry; U.S. Soy Export Sales

High Mississippi Barge Rates Make PNW Soy Shipments a Bargain Normally, cash prices for soybeans are about $0.50/bushel ($18.40/MT) higher at export elevators in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) than at those located along the Mississippi River. However, the premium has dropped to no more than aroun...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price was RUB 10,500/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Meanwhile, the average export price for 2019 feed barley dropped to $170/MT FOB Blac...

USMCA Codification; Mitigating the Mitigation; Expanding the Conflict

USMCA Codification What seemed unlikely just a few weeks ago now looks like a growing possibility – U.S. congressional passage of the USMCA. USTR Robert Lighthizer told members of Congress that he will do whatever it takes to mollify their concerns. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce says it no...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...

livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macro Trends Food Inflation Reaches Highest Level in Seven and a Half Years The effects of the August 2018 outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) have continued to reverberate across China’s economy in 2019. In the second quarter of this year, food inflation has hit levels not seen since 2...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 June)

Update for 19 June: Prices/data updated through Friday's close.  Tweet  4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to reflect prices through Friday's close.  Launch Information:  WPI is proud to introduce our FOB Prices a...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 June)

Update for 19 June 2019:  Data updated for all listed routes.   Update for 26 April 2019: Weekly data updates have been pushed, along with new routes added from the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Enjoy!  Update for 24 April 2019: Thanks for the feedback and suggestions on the app...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...

Legs of War; No Cigar

Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful but not definitive. Both sides are dug in deep and short of one side or the other (or both). As it incurs economic calamity, this war would...

equities

News Impacts on Commodity Volatility

Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...

feed-grains

Shifting Baseline Leaves Real Crop Progress Still Unknown

USDA issued the crop progress report yesterday, but interpreting any meaning from it is almost impossible under current conditions because the baseline of intended planting has changed. Consider, 1 March planting intentions had indicated there would be 92.8 million acres of corn this year. That...

wheat feed-grains

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Tunisian government will be using drones this year to assess the grain crops as well as to try and identify those who have been setting fire to the wheat crops in parts of the country. However, some locals say only very high temperatures a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...

Is the Immigration-Tariff Deal with Mexico a Template for China Breakthrough?

There is a great deal of speculation on whether Presidents Trump and Xi will actually meetand/or come to a deal at the G20 Summit in Osaka on 28 and 29 June. Much of the rhetoric from the U.S. side has continued to take a tough stance in trade talks with China. However, it is now more than a ye...

Trump G20 Plan; Trade Policy Potpourri

Trump G20 Plan Donald Trump has been relentless at pressuring other NATO members to meet their commitments in terms of funding the organization’s military capacity. His admonitions have been backed by NATO’s secretary general and major media organizations like the Financial Times. I...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The weather-driven rally in CBOT soybeans has left Brazilian basis steadily weaker. It dropped 10 cents/bushels last week, especially for nearby positions, on slight Chinese demand. Despite the CBOT’s rally, Dalian soymeal and soyoil futures are steady/lower, reducing crus...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat Southeast Europe and Black Sea wheat markets are mostly steady to start the week despite rising prices in France, Germany and the U.S. The Black Sea region has been under a hot/dry weather pattern that has yet to create significant concerns for the wheat crop there. Soil moistures...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

No Growth Out of Bear Market

Historically, the keys to getting out of bear commodity markets have been economic growth and production cuts in response to low prices. Rising grain and oilseed stocks from the 1997 Asian financial crisis began to subside as the recovery in world gross domestic product (GDP) growth boosted dem...

Appropriations Amendments Tie USDA’s Hands and Scrutinize Administration on Trade

The House ag appropriations bill includes many restrictions on USDA’s use of appropriated funding, and there are 70 amendments that provide more stipulations. Yesterday was the deadline for filing amendments with the Rules Committee, which will meet next Tuesday to decide on the ones that...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...

Good/Bad Trade War; Government Procurement Challenge; POTUS Contender and Commodity Outlook

Good/Bad Trade War Political analysts correctly note how the Trump trade war has “scrambled” the politics in both major political parties. Politicians do not like to be wrong, and so the most common refrain is that Mr. Trump could have used a different course to address China’...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Beef

At the recent Southern Association of State Departments of Agriculture (SASDA) meeting in Fort Worth, the counsel general of the Chinese Consulate in Houston, Li Qiangmin, addressed the current state of U.S.-China trade relations. He said that if they normalize, China will be a strong customer...

Cold War II; Varying Farm Policy Models

Cold War II In a sign that President Trump is not going to be able to leverage a trade agreement out of China, Beijing issued notice that it will not yield to U.S. demands even with maximum pressure from Washington. This is the strength of a Marxist economy, and it is perhaps helped by a fallin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: PNW Soybeans; Damage to U.S. Soy Industry; U.S. Soy Export Sales

High Mississippi Barge Rates Make PNW Soy Shipments a Bargain Normally, cash prices for soybeans are about $0.50/bushel ($18.40/MT) higher at export elevators in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) than at those located along the Mississippi River. However, the premium has dropped to no more than aroun...

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