Market Commentary: Mixed but Friendly
Never understood the market phrase “friendly” – friendly to whom? Today’s market was not too unfriendly to anyone from the standpoint that up or down, there were no dramatic swings. Call it light volatility. Key points: The results were mixed with corn, soymeal, and liv...
Livestock Roundup: Slightly More Hogs and Pigs
USDA released its June quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. Pre-report expectation was for a total inventory of 73.6 million head – which would have been the smallest September inventory since 2017 - but the actual inventory was 74.3 million, slightly higher than September 2022 and up 2...
Shutdown Exports; Killing the Messenger; Checking Out
Shutdown Exports The U.S. government will likely shut down this weekend because some Republicans are trying to leverage more budget discipline and other goals. The overall impact on the economy of a government shutdown is less than the clickbait media is trying to convey, but it does have odd i...
Market Commentary: Wheat Crashes on Tender Results; Commercial Buying Lifts Corn
The CBOT was once again mixed with wheat futures dropping to fresh, two-year lows after data from Egypt’s latest tender showed continued weakness in global values. Corn and soybeans, on the other hand, found a bit of strength on commercial buying and, for soybeans, expectations of tighter...
Green Tipping Point; Scale of Corruption
Green Tipping Point The media only covers the two extremes: climate deniers and climate alarmists. The climate alarmists have been winning but now it is the middle having their way. Those in the middle have been quite willing to make some sacrifices on behalf of slowing climate change. But they...
Tomato Wars
U.S. and Mexican trade officials meet in Washington this Friday for the annual bilateral economic dialogue. Labor rights, automobile domestic content, and maybe GMO corn are likely topics. Another will be tomatoes. American tomato growers and their members of Congress are demanding that the Bid...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Market Commentary: Worsening Conditions Lift Soy Complex; Cattle Crash on Economic Worries
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the worst late-September soybean ratings since 2003 offering support to soybean futures while further strength in crude oil stopped, temporarily at least, the selling in soyoil. Despite the strength in the soy complex, corn and wheat futures struggled to find...
Farm Bill Delays; Small Farmers’ Big Complaint; Schöpferische Zerstörung
Farm Bill Delays The prospects for passing a farm bill this year are characterized from being very cloudy to increasingly getting worse. One academic said it is the worse political conditions for a farm bill that he has ever seen. The old farm bill coalition is in disarray and outside forces ar...
Russia’s Wheat Situation
Egypt was reportedly negotiating with Russia on a purchase of 1 MMT of wheat but has now gone to an international tender. Meanwhile, Tunisia tendered for 100 KMT of there were no offers from Russian trading houses. The trade believes Moscow has put a brake on wheat exports through an unofficial...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the June-August quarter will be released on Thursday. This is an interesting report as it covers the period in which Prop 12 has been implemented and the only two months so far in the year (July and August) where producers margins have been in black. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...
September Cold Storage Report
August 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were down from July and were 6.6 percent below August 2022 as beef and pork stocks continue to tighten. Once again, the big shock from the report was the decline in beef supplies that pulled red meat stocks down 15.4 percent from August 2022. Pork s...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
Declining Ukrainian Market Share
Ukraine has successfully sent a few ships filled with grain out the Black Sea the past few weeks, but it is unlikely to transit the 33 MMT achieved under the now defunct grain corridor agreement with Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is attacking Ukraine’s sea and river ports including hammering...
WTO Outlook; Food Safety Evolution; Subpar Eco Schemes
WTO Outlook USTR Katherine Tai last week described the WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference scheduled for next February to be the first “reform ministerial.” However, she recognizes that U.S. ambitions such as increasing transparency, addressing non-market economies and fixing di...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 25 September)
Update for 28 August 2023: Last fall, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where...
Economic Growth: Is It Strong or Fragile?
Last week, the Fed’s FOMC left interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected, but the future outlook is less certain. According to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, “The fact that we decided to maintain the policy rate at this meeting doesn’t mean that we’...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s winter crop planting effort is 11 percent complete with 585.6 thousand hectares seeded so far. Overnight, Russia launched another missile attack on Ukraine’s Odesa region, which damaged several near-port granaries and the under-construction...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall continues to evade much of Argentina’s wheat-growing region and out of the total planted area, 2 Mha are estimated to be in either regular or poor condition according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Twenty-two percent of the area is in poor/very poor condition, 25 percent is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Market Commentary: Defensive for a While Longer
The CBOT tried to recover from Thursday’s blistering selling that was primarily motivated by disappointing export sales and aggressive “risk off” trade. Overnight volume was paltry heading into Friday morning but the soy complex tried to stage a rally. Friday’s trade was...
Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the total inventory of cattle on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.1 million head. Following is a summary of today’s report. Again, following a theme for this year so far, the report was in line with pre-report e...
Oilseed Highlights – Another Bearish Week
The Market It was another down week for the oilseeds complex. November soybeans lost 44 cents to a one month low, December soymeal is off $6.30 and December soyoil gave up 2.44 cents. Global vegetable oil markets are weak. Palm oil hit a three-month low at 3,657 ringgits/MT ($779.91) and canola...
Market Commentary: Mixed but Friendly
Never understood the market phrase “friendly” – friendly to whom? Today’s market was not too unfriendly to anyone from the standpoint that up or down, there were no dramatic swings. Call it light volatility. Key points: The results were mixed with corn, soymeal, and liv...
Livestock Roundup: Slightly More Hogs and Pigs
USDA released its June quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. Pre-report expectation was for a total inventory of 73.6 million head – which would have been the smallest September inventory since 2017 - but the actual inventory was 74.3 million, slightly higher than September 2022 and up 2...
Shutdown Exports; Killing the Messenger; Checking Out
Shutdown Exports The U.S. government will likely shut down this weekend because some Republicans are trying to leverage more budget discipline and other goals. The overall impact on the economy of a government shutdown is less than the clickbait media is trying to convey, but it does have odd i...
Market Commentary: Wheat Crashes on Tender Results; Commercial Buying Lifts Corn
The CBOT was once again mixed with wheat futures dropping to fresh, two-year lows after data from Egypt’s latest tender showed continued weakness in global values. Corn and soybeans, on the other hand, found a bit of strength on commercial buying and, for soybeans, expectations of tighter...
Green Tipping Point; Scale of Corruption
Green Tipping Point The media only covers the two extremes: climate deniers and climate alarmists. The climate alarmists have been winning but now it is the middle having their way. Those in the middle have been quite willing to make some sacrifices on behalf of slowing climate change. But they...
Tomato Wars
U.S. and Mexican trade officials meet in Washington this Friday for the annual bilateral economic dialogue. Labor rights, automobile domestic content, and maybe GMO corn are likely topics. Another will be tomatoes. American tomato growers and their members of Congress are demanding that the Bid...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Market Commentary: Worsening Conditions Lift Soy Complex; Cattle Crash on Economic Worries
The CBOT was mixed on Tuesday with the worst late-September soybean ratings since 2003 offering support to soybean futures while further strength in crude oil stopped, temporarily at least, the selling in soyoil. Despite the strength in the soy complex, corn and wheat futures struggled to find...
Farm Bill Delays; Small Farmers’ Big Complaint; Schöpferische Zerstörung
Farm Bill Delays The prospects for passing a farm bill this year are characterized from being very cloudy to increasingly getting worse. One academic said it is the worse political conditions for a farm bill that he has ever seen. The old farm bill coalition is in disarray and outside forces ar...
Russia’s Wheat Situation
Egypt was reportedly negotiating with Russia on a purchase of 1 MMT of wheat but has now gone to an international tender. Meanwhile, Tunisia tendered for 100 KMT of there were no offers from Russian trading houses. The trade believes Moscow has put a brake on wheat exports through an unofficial...
Hogs and Pigs Report Preview
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the June-August quarter will be released on Thursday. This is an interesting report as it covers the period in which Prop 12 has been implemented and the only two months so far in the year (July and August) where producers margins have been in black. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt is reportedly discussing the financing of purchases of Kazakh wheat with an unnamed Abu Dhabi based bank. Egypt’s GASC is said to be negotiating this due to the Russian set floor price for wheat, which...
September Cold Storage Report
August 2023 total red meat and poultry stocks were down from July and were 6.6 percent below August 2022 as beef and pork stocks continue to tighten. Once again, the big shock from the report was the decline in beef supplies that pulled red meat stocks down 15.4 percent from August 2022. Pork s...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
Declining Ukrainian Market Share
Ukraine has successfully sent a few ships filled with grain out the Black Sea the past few weeks, but it is unlikely to transit the 33 MMT achieved under the now defunct grain corridor agreement with Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is attacking Ukraine’s sea and river ports including hammering...
WTO Outlook; Food Safety Evolution; Subpar Eco Schemes
WTO Outlook USTR Katherine Tai last week described the WTO’s 13th Ministerial Conference scheduled for next February to be the first “reform ministerial.” However, she recognizes that U.S. ambitions such as increasing transparency, addressing non-market economies and fixing di...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 25 September)
Update for 28 August 2023: Last fall, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where...
Economic Growth: Is It Strong or Fragile?
Last week, the Fed’s FOMC left interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected, but the future outlook is less certain. According to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, “The fact that we decided to maintain the policy rate at this meeting doesn’t mean that we’...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s winter crop planting effort is 11 percent complete with 585.6 thousand hectares seeded so far. Overnight, Russia launched another missile attack on Ukraine’s Odesa region, which damaged several near-port granaries and the under-construction...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Rainfall continues to evade much of Argentina’s wheat-growing region and out of the total planted area, 2 Mha are estimated to be in either regular or poor condition according to the Rosario Grain Exchange. Twenty-two percent of the area is in poor/very poor condition, 25 percent is...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Market Commentary: Defensive for a While Longer
The CBOT tried to recover from Thursday’s blistering selling that was primarily motivated by disappointing export sales and aggressive “risk off” trade. Overnight volume was paltry heading into Friday morning but the soy complex tried to stage a rally. Friday’s trade was...
Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory
USDA released the monthly Cattle on Feed report today; the total inventory of cattle on feed in feedlots of 1,000 head or more capacity was 11.1 million head. Following is a summary of today’s report. Again, following a theme for this year so far, the report was in line with pre-report e...
Oilseed Highlights – Another Bearish Week
The Market It was another down week for the oilseeds complex. November soybeans lost 44 cents to a one month low, December soymeal is off $6.30 and December soyoil gave up 2.44 cents. Global vegetable oil markets are weak. Palm oil hit a three-month low at 3,657 ringgits/MT ($779.91) and canola...