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Recent Ag Perspectives Analysis

livestock wheat soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary: CBOT Decline Continues while Stocks Rally; EPA Confirms Summer E15 Sales

The CBOT was mostly lower again on Thursday with funds retaining their bearish grip on the markets and driving futures into the red. Despite adjustments to South American crop expectations, corn and soybean markets are reacting to overall favorable production conditions and the looming crops th...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow and the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed to be 100 percent of the prior year. If correct, this would be the fifth consecutive month that inventories were equal to or larger than the previous...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 February)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 February 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets and traders returned from their seasonal quiet period during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday and found a flurry of buying orders that supported markets and rates. The Capesize sector led the rally with the Panamax s...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 February)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 February 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets and traders returned from their seasonal quiet period during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday and found a flurry of buying orders that supported markets and rates. The Capesize sector led the rally with the Panamax s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn Scores New Lows; CBOT to Remain Weak and Defensive

The CBOT resumed its downward trend on Wednesday with corn and soybeans abandoning any of the prior day’s strength while wheat futures wobbled but remained near Tuesday’s highs. Corn futures scored new contract lows with little fresh news available to offer support and favorable wea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...

Cost of Deception; Trade and Politics; Political Constituencies

Cost of Deception President Joe Biden like other politicians thought he made a clever calculation when he recent;ly blamed food processors for inflation in the sector. As he scorned, “The American public is tired of being played for suckers…I’ve had enough of what they call s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ukraine's Limited Choices

Much like U.S. farmers, Ukrainian producers prefer to plant the most profitable crops. This is especially true when considering Ukraine’s farmers are reportedly losing $50/MT on corn. The preference is to grow soybeans, and output of the oilseed increased nearly 27 percent in 2023. Howeve...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Short-Covering, Value Buying

The CBOT turned sharply higher after the three-day weekend with wheat leading the way on a surge in buying interest. Paris wheat started the rally with contracts there rebounded from new contract lows, and that strength spilled over into CBOT and KCBT futures as well. While little clear motivat...

biofuel

A Look at Low Carbon Feedstock for Biofuels

At the end of this year the existing biofuel tax credit expires and will be replaced with the new Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC) included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. Those credits which are expiring include the on-again, off-again biodiesel blenders’ tax credit (BTC...

German Broken Window Theory; Mixed Ethanol Policies; Future of Food

German Broken Window Theory At this past weekend’s Munich Security Conference, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said U.S. defense contractors and the American economy would benefit from spending more money helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia. Biden economic adviser Lael Br...

softs

Honey Rebounding

Global honey production fell 6.3 percent between 2017 and 2019. Culprits for the decline included Colony Collapse Disorder and the use of pesticides such as neonicotinoids. However, since then production has rebounded by 4 percent and continues expanding on an upward trend. In Europe where the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of wheat supplies for 2024 even with a forecasted record wheat harvest. It seems that there are concerns that due to very dry weather the f...

biofuel energy wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The weekly CFTC report featured a few surprises, most notably the 11,000-contract net buying in the Chicago wheat market. Heading into the report, expectations were that it would show funds expanding short positions heading into the February AOF from USDA. Rather, funds were parging back shorts...

President's Day

Monday, 19 February is a U.S. holiday. The CME/CBOT will be closed as will our offices in observance of the President’s Day holiday. The next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 20 February...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Rush for the Exit Continues; Cattle Surge on Higher Cash Trade

Long’s rush to the exit in CBOT futures continued Friday with the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) balance sheet projections weighing heavily on markets. March corn futures posted a new contract low in the first five minutes of the overnight trade on Friday and continued to post new lo...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: A Bounce Off Oversold but Still Bearish

The Market The oilseeds market remains bearish as South American crops progress more favorably and Chicago futures face a large American crop that is over-priced. There was a bounce-back on Friday after soybeans were oversold based on USDA’s Thursday Outlook report (see below); palm oil f...

International Agency Capture; Running Out of Crap; Vilsack Shines

International Agency Capture Regulatory capture occurs when a policymaker or regulator is co-opted to serve the interests of a minor constituency. That capture has now occurred to two international agencies, the WTO and the IEA. The WTO is dysfunctional because it has been recast as a developme...

livestock

Quality Beef Demand

Yesterday, WPI covered the export demand for pork, and how that could help support hog prices moving forward, along with some other factors like lower feed costs. Below is a look at cattle prices and domestic beef demand. Cattle prices remain at record levels, surpassing the previous records of...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary: The Terrible, Horrible, No Good Day, Very Bad Day

Not totally that bad if you were betting short, or like livestock. But let’s count the ways: New contract low in corn New contract low in soybean meal New contract low in HRW New contract low in HRS New contract low in Paris wheat What caused all of these exits? First and foremost was...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: Pork Exports, Just What the Sector Needs

Weekly trade data showed a big uptick in pork exports last week; net sales were up 83 percent from the four-week average and actual shipments were up 82 percent. Big buyers were the two stalwarts Mexico and China. Out of net sales of 71,900 MT, Mexico was the buyer of 25,000 MT (35 percent) and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bearish Long-Term Projections, Outlook Expectations Sink Grain Markets

The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with USDA issuing a bearish long-term outlook late Tuesday and traders looking for bearish numbers from the agency later this week. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will be in Washington, D.C. this Thursday and Friday and will offer the agency’s fir...

More Subsidies for Scale; APEP Trade; African Humor

More Subsidies for Scale The Biden Administration blames large meat packers for higher consumer prices. Its solution has been to subsidize the startup of small meat packers with grants (Value-Added Producer Grants) and loans. The program has been a smashing success. Over the past year the avera...

soy-oilseeds

No Over-Production of Soymeal

There are many different U.S. programs encouraging the research into, production of, and use of biodiesel and renewable biodiesel. The U.S. Energy Information Agency lists seven programs, nine laws and regulations, plus 21 incentives ranging from grants to loans to tax credits. However, the Ren...

livestock wheat soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary: CBOT Decline Continues while Stocks Rally; EPA Confirms Summer E15 Sales

The CBOT was mostly lower again on Thursday with funds retaining their bearish grip on the markets and driving futures into the red. Despite adjustments to South American crop expectations, corn and soybean markets are reacting to overall favorable production conditions and the looming crops th...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow and the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed to be 100 percent of the prior year. If correct, this would be the fifth consecutive month that inventories were equal to or larger than the previous...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 February)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 February 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets and traders returned from their seasonal quiet period during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday and found a flurry of buying orders that supported markets and rates. The Capesize sector led the rally with the Panamax s...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 February)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 February 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets and traders returned from their seasonal quiet period during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday and found a flurry of buying orders that supported markets and rates. The Capesize sector led the rally with the Panamax s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn Scores New Lows; CBOT to Remain Weak and Defensive

The CBOT resumed its downward trend on Wednesday with corn and soybeans abandoning any of the prior day’s strength while wheat futures wobbled but remained near Tuesday’s highs. Corn futures scored new contract lows with little fresh news available to offer support and favorable wea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...

Cost of Deception; Trade and Politics; Political Constituencies

Cost of Deception President Joe Biden like other politicians thought he made a clever calculation when he recent;ly blamed food processors for inflation in the sector. As he scorned, “The American public is tired of being played for suckers…I’ve had enough of what they call s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ukraine's Limited Choices

Much like U.S. farmers, Ukrainian producers prefer to plant the most profitable crops. This is especially true when considering Ukraine’s farmers are reportedly losing $50/MT on corn. The preference is to grow soybeans, and output of the oilseed increased nearly 27 percent in 2023. Howeve...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Short-Covering, Value Buying

The CBOT turned sharply higher after the three-day weekend with wheat leading the way on a surge in buying interest. Paris wheat started the rally with contracts there rebounded from new contract lows, and that strength spilled over into CBOT and KCBT futures as well. While little clear motivat...

biofuel

A Look at Low Carbon Feedstock for Biofuels

At the end of this year the existing biofuel tax credit expires and will be replaced with the new Clean Fuel Production Credit (CFPC) included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022. Those credits which are expiring include the on-again, off-again biodiesel blenders’ tax credit (BTC...

German Broken Window Theory; Mixed Ethanol Policies; Future of Food

German Broken Window Theory At this past weekend’s Munich Security Conference, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said U.S. defense contractors and the American economy would benefit from spending more money helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia. Biden economic adviser Lael Br...

softs

Honey Rebounding

Global honey production fell 6.3 percent between 2017 and 2019. Culprits for the decline included Colony Collapse Disorder and the use of pesticides such as neonicotinoids. However, since then production has rebounded by 4 percent and continues expanding on an upward trend. In Europe where the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee approved the importation of wheat supplies for 2024 even with a forecasted record wheat harvest. It seems that there are concerns that due to very dry weather the f...

biofuel energy wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The weekly CFTC report featured a few surprises, most notably the 11,000-contract net buying in the Chicago wheat market. Heading into the report, expectations were that it would show funds expanding short positions heading into the February AOF from USDA. Rather, funds were parging back shorts...

President's Day

Monday, 19 February is a U.S. holiday. The CME/CBOT will be closed as will our offices in observance of the President’s Day holiday. The next Ag Perspectives will be published on Tuesday, 20 February...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Rush for the Exit Continues; Cattle Surge on Higher Cash Trade

Long’s rush to the exit in CBOT futures continued Friday with the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum (AOF) balance sheet projections weighing heavily on markets. March corn futures posted a new contract low in the first five minutes of the overnight trade on Friday and continued to post new lo...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: A Bounce Off Oversold but Still Bearish

The Market The oilseeds market remains bearish as South American crops progress more favorably and Chicago futures face a large American crop that is over-priced. There was a bounce-back on Friday after soybeans were oversold based on USDA’s Thursday Outlook report (see below); palm oil f...

International Agency Capture; Running Out of Crap; Vilsack Shines

International Agency Capture Regulatory capture occurs when a policymaker or regulator is co-opted to serve the interests of a minor constituency. That capture has now occurred to two international agencies, the WTO and the IEA. The WTO is dysfunctional because it has been recast as a developme...

livestock

Quality Beef Demand

Yesterday, WPI covered the export demand for pork, and how that could help support hog prices moving forward, along with some other factors like lower feed costs. Below is a look at cattle prices and domestic beef demand. Cattle prices remain at record levels, surpassing the previous records of...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary: The Terrible, Horrible, No Good Day, Very Bad Day

Not totally that bad if you were betting short, or like livestock. But let’s count the ways: New contract low in corn New contract low in soybean meal New contract low in HRW New contract low in HRS New contract low in Paris wheat What caused all of these exits? First and foremost was...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: Pork Exports, Just What the Sector Needs

Weekly trade data showed a big uptick in pork exports last week; net sales were up 83 percent from the four-week average and actual shipments were up 82 percent. Big buyers were the two stalwarts Mexico and China. Out of net sales of 71,900 MT, Mexico was the buyer of 25,000 MT (35 percent) and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bearish Long-Term Projections, Outlook Expectations Sink Grain Markets

The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with USDA issuing a bearish long-term outlook late Tuesday and traders looking for bearish numbers from the agency later this week. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will be in Washington, D.C. this Thursday and Friday and will offer the agency’s fir...

More Subsidies for Scale; APEP Trade; African Humor

More Subsidies for Scale The Biden Administration blames large meat packers for higher consumer prices. Its solution has been to subsidize the startup of small meat packers with grants (Value-Added Producer Grants) and loans. The program has been a smashing success. Over the past year the avera...

soy-oilseeds

No Over-Production of Soymeal

There are many different U.S. programs encouraging the research into, production of, and use of biodiesel and renewable biodiesel. The U.S. Energy Information Agency lists seven programs, nine laws and regulations, plus 21 incentives ranging from grants to loans to tax credits. However, the Ren...

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