World Perspectives

Recent Ag Perspectives Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire

The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...

A Look at Agriculture Funding Three Ways

There are three key pots of money for agriculture support: a second round of CFAP, additional relief for COVID, and the regular budget. One has been settled and two remain in limbo in Congress. Here is the run-down: First, the CFAP 2 payment schedules were released today from USDA. President Tr...

ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act

ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...

The Daily Onion

Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Gambling on China

The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...

Post-November Economy; Disparate Fears

Post-November Economy Fiscal recklessness has its limit, and this will come home to roost. Having already borrowed and spent $3 trillion to revive the COVID-coma economy, Congressional Democrats want to spend another $2.2 trillion subsidizing states and cities, and Democratic presidential candi...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Dairy Market Still Searching for Balance

The final 2019 dairy utilization data from USDA released this week shows that per capita conumption of milk is at an historic high of 650 pounds. Annual dairy consumption increased by 12.4 percent from 2017 to 2109, while fluid milk, the highest priced use of milk dropped. The annual increase...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Changing China’s Planting Priorities; August Soy Crush Report; U.S. Soy Sales

China Urged to Prioritize Corn, Wheat and Rice Production Over Soybean Production Speakers at this year’s China Soybean Industry International Summit Forum urged the government of China to stop prioritizing the plantings of soybeans to supply the animal food market and instead allow more...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

More Questions for Grain Markets

Grain and soy futures markets often pose more questions than answers. In terms of trade volume and volatility that is a good thing since it is questions not answers that fuel markets. In that sense last week’s WASDE answered a few questions at least temporarily but raised many more. USDA&...

Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle

Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberalized trade. She called for settling the current bilateral disputes like Airbus/Boeing, plus working together on WTO reforms and China. That ma...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads

The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China Furthers Stimulates Live Hog Production and Risks Grow China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) recently announced an increase in the central government’s direct subsidy to major live hog production counties. The new policy will increase the annual am...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 September 2020 Domestic Russian market wheat and barley prices mainly grew due to export demand. Corn prices were stable in the regions where the old harvested corn was sold and decreased in the regions that started quoting prices for 2020 corn. Export milling wheat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower with Harvest Looming

Now halfway through the month of September, the CBOT is looking like the rally is ending, or at least on pause for a while. Row crops and wheat were lower as the focus turns to the large U.S. harvest and overbought technical conditions. The U.S. corn harvest is starting and early yield results...

Economy Entering an Inflationary Period

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is meeting today and tomorrow, where it will revise its latest economic forecasts for the year and release its plan for short term interest rates.  At the June meeting of the Fed, the median forecast among the 17 Fed policymakers was that inflation...

Revolutionizing EU Agriculture; Squander Leverage/Solicit Good Will

Revolutionizing EU Agriculture The European Public Heath Alliance says agricultural support and promotion should end its focus on competitiveness and instead align with the health and sustainability goals of the Farm to Fork and European Green Deal initiatives. If adopted, this will upset the e...

feed-grains

Rice Self-Sufficiency

It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire.  Global rice trade hi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt intends to have a commodity exchange in place for the first half of 2021. The exchange will trade wheat, vegetable oils, rice, and sugar. Invested capital will be close to $6 million. Delivery points will be set at specific governmen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Again; WPI 2020 S&D; Beef Turning Bullish

The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with soybeans and soyoil extending their rallies. Corn and wheat were firmer but posted a relatively lackluster day of trading. Soyoil reversed course and fell lower under pressure from long profit taking and bull soyoil/soymeal spreads. Cattle futur...

Partisan Perspective on Farm Payments

It’s 50 days until the 2020 election. USDA is expected to announce the terms of the second round of CFAP payments this week and the Senate Democrats today released a report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) about the disparity in the MFP payments. As we reported back in Febr...

Branstad Departs; Speculatively Correct; Bullish Tractors

Branstad Departs Former Iowa governor and U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad is departing his post in Beijing. Some call it a perilous time to leave given souring bilateral relations, others say it is only because he needs to campaign for Mr. Trump’s re-election. Alternatively, U.S.-...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire

The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...

A Look at Agriculture Funding Three Ways

There are three key pots of money for agriculture support: a second round of CFAP, additional relief for COVID, and the regular budget. One has been settled and two remain in limbo in Congress. Here is the run-down: First, the CFAP 2 payment schedules were released today from USDA. President Tr...

ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act

ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...

The Daily Onion

Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Gambling on China

The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...

Post-November Economy; Disparate Fears

Post-November Economy Fiscal recklessness has its limit, and this will come home to roost. Having already borrowed and spent $3 trillion to revive the COVID-coma economy, Congressional Democrats want to spend another $2.2 trillion subsidizing states and cities, and Democratic presidential candi...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Dairy Market Still Searching for Balance

The final 2019 dairy utilization data from USDA released this week shows that per capita conumption of milk is at an historic high of 650 pounds. Annual dairy consumption increased by 12.4 percent from 2017 to 2109, while fluid milk, the highest priced use of milk dropped. The annual increase...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Changing China’s Planting Priorities; August Soy Crush Report; U.S. Soy Sales

China Urged to Prioritize Corn, Wheat and Rice Production Over Soybean Production Speakers at this year’s China Soybean Industry International Summit Forum urged the government of China to stop prioritizing the plantings of soybeans to supply the animal food market and instead allow more...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

More Questions for Grain Markets

Grain and soy futures markets often pose more questions than answers. In terms of trade volume and volatility that is a good thing since it is questions not answers that fuel markets. In that sense last week’s WASDE answered a few questions at least temporarily but raised many more. USDA&...

Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle

Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberalized trade. She called for settling the current bilateral disputes like Airbus/Boeing, plus working together on WTO reforms and China. That ma...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads

The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China Furthers Stimulates Live Hog Production and Risks Grow China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) recently announced an increase in the central government’s direct subsidy to major live hog production counties. The new policy will increase the annual am...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 7-11 September 2020 Domestic Russian market wheat and barley prices mainly grew due to export demand. Corn prices were stable in the regions where the old harvested corn was sold and decreased in the regions that started quoting prices for 2020 corn. Export milling wheat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower with Harvest Looming

Now halfway through the month of September, the CBOT is looking like the rally is ending, or at least on pause for a while. Row crops and wheat were lower as the focus turns to the large U.S. harvest and overbought technical conditions. The U.S. corn harvest is starting and early yield results...

Economy Entering an Inflationary Period

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is meeting today and tomorrow, where it will revise its latest economic forecasts for the year and release its plan for short term interest rates.  At the June meeting of the Fed, the median forecast among the 17 Fed policymakers was that inflation...

Revolutionizing EU Agriculture; Squander Leverage/Solicit Good Will

Revolutionizing EU Agriculture The European Public Heath Alliance says agricultural support and promotion should end its focus on competitiveness and instead align with the health and sustainability goals of the Farm to Fork and European Green Deal initiatives. If adopted, this will upset the e...

feed-grains

Rice Self-Sufficiency

It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire.  Global rice trade hi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA Egypt intends to have a commodity exchange in place for the first half of 2021. The exchange will trade wheat, vegetable oils, rice, and sugar. Invested capital will be close to $6 million. Delivery points will be set at specific governmen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Again; WPI 2020 S&D; Beef Turning Bullish

The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with soybeans and soyoil extending their rallies. Corn and wheat were firmer but posted a relatively lackluster day of trading. Soyoil reversed course and fell lower under pressure from long profit taking and bull soyoil/soymeal spreads. Cattle futur...

Partisan Perspective on Farm Payments

It’s 50 days until the 2020 election. USDA is expected to announce the terms of the second round of CFAP payments this week and the Senate Democrats today released a report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) about the disparity in the MFP payments. As we reported back in Febr...

Branstad Departs; Speculatively Correct; Bullish Tractors

Branstad Departs Former Iowa governor and U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad is departing his post in Beijing. Some call it a perilous time to leave given souring bilateral relations, others say it is only because he needs to campaign for Mr. Trump’s re-election. Alternatively, U.S.-...

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