World Perspectives

Recent Ag Perspectives Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks

The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...

Problem Solved; Cost of Food Sovereignty

Problem Solved The UN hosts a Food Systems Summit later this year intended to promote progress on the organization’s sustainable development goals and other food system “problems.” The Summit’s website bravely asserts that, “The good news is that we know what we ne...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

Biden Appropriations Request for Agriculture

The Biden Administration Office of Management and Budget sent a partial budget plan to Capitol Hill this morning. The proposal is an outline of funding requests in annually appropriated programs referred to as discretionary spending. Ongoing programs authorized by permanent legislation, such as...

Production Priority over Consumption

Americans consume more than the dietary guidelines recommend for meat and grains while under-consuming fruit and vegetables. Vegetable consumption has been rising and is now at around 70 percent of recommended levels. This has been helped in part by fresh, low-cost supplies from Mexico. The U.S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Setting Up Surprise

Traders say they do not like surprises but they seem to be setting up for one tomorrow. There is a lot of room for disappointment when USDA releases its April WASDE report. For 80 percent of the datapoints surveyed by Reuters, the trade expects USDA to give them more bullish numbers (see table...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Feed Prices

Livestock cost of gain is an issue that seemingly is not going away and has heightened the interest in tomorrow’s WASDE report. At current carcass weights, a dollar increase in corn price means about $10 per head for hogs, and for cattle means that cattle will be held back on grass for he...

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy; Trade Bullying

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy A session at the Washington International Trade Association today tried to unravel the meaning of the Biden Administration’s so-called worker-led trade policy. Most of the discussion centered on high level economic theory and the mischaracterization of tra...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; WASDE Report Changes; India Complaint; India Vegoil Tariff Rates

U.S. Soybean Export Sales Shift to New Crop Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report further confirmed the ongoing shift in U.S. sales of soybeans from the 2020 crop to the 2021 crop. Tight U.S. soybean stocks and less expensive soybean exports from South America are combining to cause the de...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 8 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to Pa...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 8 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop; Grains Chop Sideways

Cattle and hog futures are lodged in massive bullish uptrends that seem to have no end in sight. All three major livestock contracts posted fresh contract highs this afternoon with open interest and trading volume rising as well. In contrast, the grain markets chopped sideways with the day&rsqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Price Sees Modest Increase in Last Full Week of March The national average live hog price through the week ending 26 March rose slightly by .8 percent to RMB 27.46/kg ($4.18/kg) or RMB 12.45/lb. ($1.90/lb.). Meanwhile, the Dalian live hog futures contracts have seen some siza...

Sustainability Cliff; Same Old Policy; Online Food Sales

Sustainability Cliff Charlie Mitchell of the New Republic complains that U.S. agriculture’s viewpoint of how to meet sustainability goals is to not change a thing. That is perhaps because the first hurdle of sustainability is profitability. The industry paid close attention to the USDA/ER...

Pandemic Not Fully Reflected

The Pew Research Center has attracted a lot of ink for its analysis of losses to middle income earners from the pandemic. Its data, derived from World Bank and IMF numbers, show the greatest loss of the middle class in South Asia, followed by East Asia. The advanced economies saw growth in the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 March-2 April 2021 Milling and feed wheat, feed corn, and barley prices remained unchanged or moved in different directions insignificantly, mainly under the influence of domestic factors, as exports decreased. March grain exports amounted to 2.8 MMT versus 4.6 MMT exp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Chops Sideways; Livestock Markets Rally

The CBOT started out strong but pulled back on quiet volumes and limited follow-through buying. Buyers are looking at early forecasts for ample grain and oilseed supplies in 2021/22 and see no reason to chase the market higher heading into the April WASDE. USDA’s April report is generally...

Bipartisan USTR; Fisheries as Proxy; Indiscriminate Aid

Bipartisan USTR President Biden is said to be likely to name long-time aide Sarah Bianchi as Deputy USTR. Bianchi’s closest work in trade involved serving as Deputy Assistant to President Obama for Economic Policy. While other Biden appointees have faced confirmation challenges due to har...

livestock

Russia and Argentina: Fighter Jets, COVID Vaccines, and Beef

During the administrations of Presidents Marci and Trump, relations between the U.S. and Argentina started to improve. For example, the Trump Department of Commerce accepted Argentina’s petition for a “changed circumstances” review of the countervailing duties placed on import...

You Will Buy This

The Livestock Environmental Assessment and Performance Partnership (LEAP) claims that pro-environment “ecolabels” are more appealing to shoppers. Meanwhile, Compassion in World Farming says consumers are willing to pay more for animal products with grown humanely labeling. Dispassio...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  After the problem with the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, the Egyptian government is said to be looking at the possibility of expanding the canal. There has also been some talk of a new canal from the Gulf of Aqaba, through Israel, to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spread Trade Supports Wheat, Pressures Corn; Hogs Post Bearish Reversal

April could be one of the most volatile months of trading for 2021. Last week’s reports certainly surprised the market and traders are once again bracing for the April WASDE that will be released Friday. Typically, the April WASDE isn’t a major market-moving report, but this year co...

Picking a Venue; Defund the CAP; NBT Protectionism

Picking a Venue There are real risks to the American economy from Mexico’s ban on GM corn for food and glyphosate. While most corn sold to Mexico is for animal feed and theoretically exempt, a small percentage of field corn goes into making cereal, corn starch, corn oil, and corn syrup th...

biofuel

Infrastructure Plan: Ag Provisions and Politics

Last week, President Biden unveiled a major $2 trillion infrastructure package, the American Jobs Plan. From agriculture’s perspective, the plan is a mixed bag, but mostly positive proposals in terms of infrastructure upgrades. Inland waterways, ports, and in-land ports of entry would r...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks

The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...

Problem Solved; Cost of Food Sovereignty

Problem Solved The UN hosts a Food Systems Summit later this year intended to promote progress on the organization’s sustainable development goals and other food system “problems.” The Summit’s website bravely asserts that, “The good news is that we know what we ne...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

Biden Appropriations Request for Agriculture

The Biden Administration Office of Management and Budget sent a partial budget plan to Capitol Hill this morning. The proposal is an outline of funding requests in annually appropriated programs referred to as discretionary spending. Ongoing programs authorized by permanent legislation, such as...

Production Priority over Consumption

Americans consume more than the dietary guidelines recommend for meat and grains while under-consuming fruit and vegetables. Vegetable consumption has been rising and is now at around 70 percent of recommended levels. This has been helped in part by fresh, low-cost supplies from Mexico. The U.S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Setting Up Surprise

Traders say they do not like surprises but they seem to be setting up for one tomorrow. There is a lot of room for disappointment when USDA releases its April WASDE report. For 80 percent of the datapoints surveyed by Reuters, the trade expects USDA to give them more bullish numbers (see table...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Feed Prices

Livestock cost of gain is an issue that seemingly is not going away and has heightened the interest in tomorrow’s WASDE report. At current carcass weights, a dollar increase in corn price means about $10 per head for hogs, and for cattle means that cattle will be held back on grass for he...

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy; Trade Bullying

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy A session at the Washington International Trade Association today tried to unravel the meaning of the Biden Administration’s so-called worker-led trade policy. Most of the discussion centered on high level economic theory and the mischaracterization of tra...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; WASDE Report Changes; India Complaint; India Vegoil Tariff Rates

U.S. Soybean Export Sales Shift to New Crop Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report further confirmed the ongoing shift in U.S. sales of soybeans from the 2020 crop to the 2021 crop. Tight U.S. soybean stocks and less expensive soybean exports from South America are combining to cause the de...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 8 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to Pa...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 8 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop; Grains Chop Sideways

Cattle and hog futures are lodged in massive bullish uptrends that seem to have no end in sight. All three major livestock contracts posted fresh contract highs this afternoon with open interest and trading volume rising as well. In contrast, the grain markets chopped sideways with the day&rsqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Price Sees Modest Increase in Last Full Week of March The national average live hog price through the week ending 26 March rose slightly by .8 percent to RMB 27.46/kg ($4.18/kg) or RMB 12.45/lb. ($1.90/lb.). Meanwhile, the Dalian live hog futures contracts have seen some siza...

Sustainability Cliff; Same Old Policy; Online Food Sales

Sustainability Cliff Charlie Mitchell of the New Republic complains that U.S. agriculture’s viewpoint of how to meet sustainability goals is to not change a thing. That is perhaps because the first hurdle of sustainability is profitability. The industry paid close attention to the USDA/ER...

Pandemic Not Fully Reflected

The Pew Research Center has attracted a lot of ink for its analysis of losses to middle income earners from the pandemic. Its data, derived from World Bank and IMF numbers, show the greatest loss of the middle class in South Asia, followed by East Asia. The advanced economies saw growth in the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 March-2 April 2021 Milling and feed wheat, feed corn, and barley prices remained unchanged or moved in different directions insignificantly, mainly under the influence of domestic factors, as exports decreased. March grain exports amounted to 2.8 MMT versus 4.6 MMT exp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Chops Sideways; Livestock Markets Rally

The CBOT started out strong but pulled back on quiet volumes and limited follow-through buying. Buyers are looking at early forecasts for ample grain and oilseed supplies in 2021/22 and see no reason to chase the market higher heading into the April WASDE. USDA’s April report is generally...

Bipartisan USTR; Fisheries as Proxy; Indiscriminate Aid

Bipartisan USTR President Biden is said to be likely to name long-time aide Sarah Bianchi as Deputy USTR. Bianchi’s closest work in trade involved serving as Deputy Assistant to President Obama for Economic Policy. While other Biden appointees have faced confirmation challenges due to har...

livestock

Russia and Argentina: Fighter Jets, COVID Vaccines, and Beef

During the administrations of Presidents Marci and Trump, relations between the U.S. and Argentina started to improve. For example, the Trump Department of Commerce accepted Argentina’s petition for a “changed circumstances” review of the countervailing duties placed on import...

You Will Buy This

The Livestock Environmental Assessment and Performance Partnership (LEAP) claims that pro-environment “ecolabels” are more appealing to shoppers. Meanwhile, Compassion in World Farming says consumers are willing to pay more for animal products with grown humanely labeling. Dispassio...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  After the problem with the Ever Given in the Suez Canal, the Egyptian government is said to be looking at the possibility of expanding the canal. There has also been some talk of a new canal from the Gulf of Aqaba, through Israel, to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spread Trade Supports Wheat, Pressures Corn; Hogs Post Bearish Reversal

April could be one of the most volatile months of trading for 2021. Last week’s reports certainly surprised the market and traders are once again bracing for the April WASDE that will be released Friday. Typically, the April WASDE isn’t a major market-moving report, but this year co...

Picking a Venue; Defund the CAP; NBT Protectionism

Picking a Venue There are real risks to the American economy from Mexico’s ban on GM corn for food and glyphosate. While most corn sold to Mexico is for animal feed and theoretically exempt, a small percentage of field corn goes into making cereal, corn starch, corn oil, and corn syrup th...

biofuel

Infrastructure Plan: Ag Provisions and Politics

Last week, President Biden unveiled a major $2 trillion infrastructure package, the American Jobs Plan. From agriculture’s perspective, the plan is a mixed bag, but mostly positive proposals in terms of infrastructure upgrades. Inland waterways, ports, and in-land ports of entry would r...

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