Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
AI and Agriculture; Worker Centric Trade Policy is Dead
AI and Agriculture AI is the rage with some warning it will lead to human extinction, and others comparing its transformative impacts to the internet and smart phones. Those technologies have had their share of ethical concerns but the genie is now out of the bottle and short of government regu...
Hogs and Pigs Report: Status Quo Numbers
USDA released its first quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the year today. At 72.86 million head, the total inventory as of 1 March was slightly above last year’s 72.69 million head. The report was generally in line with pre-report expectations, except there were a few more market...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg ($.004/lb.) or .4 percent. Even with feed prices continuing to fall, the operating loss per live hog worsened by RMB 6/head ($.88/head) or...
Friend-shoring Challenge
Friend-shoring or moving supply chains closer to being between like-minded nations doesn’t seem like an agriculture issue but it could become one. That is because the sector is increasingly being treated like a strategic asset, and it faces differentiated production standards as regulatio...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, KCBT Wheat Lead Tuesday Rallies; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with traders increasingly preparing and positioning for the coming acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soy complex was the upside leader for the day with turnaround in soymeal and soybeans gaining steam and attracting more technical buying interest. There...
Unhelpful Timing; Tai Strengths and Weaknesses; IPEF’s Weakness
Unhelpful Timing The U.S. agriculture sector unleashed a pro-trade barrage on the Biden Administration this week and USDA bureaucrats wittingly or unwittingly contributed to the onslaught. U.S. agriculture is highly dependent on trade. It was first battered by Donald Trump’s trade war and...
Meat Trade Changes
The U.S. is a major meat producer and exporters, and global demand has been growing. At the same time, competition has been growing and U.S. market share has been declining, though less for poultry than for beef. Brazil is a low-cost producer and has been a preferred provider for China where mu...
Long Term Energy Outlook: Exporting Ethanol, Importing Biomass Based Diesel
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2023 – that report is the Department of Energy’s equivalent to USDA’s long term baseline projection. The USDA’s report forecasts out to 2032, while the AEO forecasts to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain markets have been upset by concerns that Russia could stop its export of wheat and sunflower seed on a temporary basis due to the recent drop in world prices. Discussions are expected in Russia this week bet...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Weather Concerns, Acres and Stocks Expectations
The CBOT was green across the board on Monday, though trading volume remained lighter than normal. Traders were focused on continued news from Russia that, even if it doesn’t limit wheat exports, it will seek to raise the export price of its products. That, combined with position evening...
Farm Bill Foci
While the human diet is a complex affair and animal protein, unlike many other commodities, lacks a title in the Farm Bill, it is the most egregious food to some activist groups. They specifically cite the contribution of livestock to climate change. These groups have some work cut out for them...
Rice is Tight
EU rice consumption has been rising at 1.8 percent CAGR at the same time production has fallen by 30 percent since 2018/19. Italy produces about half of the EU’s rice output, and it has suffered from drought. As a water intensive crop, climate change will have an outside impact on this st...
Broiler Production Up, but Not Caught Up with Pre-Pandemic Efficiency
The March WASDE projected broiler production to increase based on recent hatchery data. So far, broiler chicks placed through 18 March are 101 percent of last year at 2.05 billion. But there are still hatchability issues plaguing the sector, which encumber the potential number of chick placemen...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rain fell over the past few days and helped stop the deterioration of the corn crop, but this does not mean the estimate of between 35 and 36 MMT won't fall further. The harvest is complete across approximately 5 percent of the area with an average yield of 3.45 MT/ha. Everyone was expecti...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
After over a month of delays due to a cyberattack, the weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders' report is back. The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, t...
Oilseed Highlights – Head Spinning Fall
The Market Although May soybeans ended a bearish week with a 15.25 cent gain, it could not erase the damage done. In total, the contract lost 48.25 cents for a close at 1428.25/bushel, the lowest weekly close in five months. It doesn’t help that China’s soybean prices are collapsing...
Ready to Discuss; Iowa Competitive
Ready to Discuss After previously calling it unsustainable, the Biden Administration has reportedly notified WTO members that it is “ready to discuss” a 10-point proposal for reforming Special and Differential Treatment (S&DT) that has been drafted by developing countries. While...
Higher Octane Fuel Standards for Higher Ethanol Blend Proposed
On 7 March WPI reported: EPA issued a proposed rule on 1 March to provide a waiver of the Clean Air Act that would permit E15 use, through the summer months, in eight Midwestern states, in response to a petition from those states’ governors. However, the proposed EPA rule – if...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
AI and Agriculture; Worker Centric Trade Policy is Dead
AI and Agriculture AI is the rage with some warning it will lead to human extinction, and others comparing its transformative impacts to the internet and smart phones. Those technologies have had their share of ethical concerns but the genie is now out of the bottle and short of government regu...
Hogs and Pigs Report: Status Quo Numbers
USDA released its first quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for the year today. At 72.86 million head, the total inventory as of 1 March was slightly above last year’s 72.69 million head. The report was generally in line with pre-report expectations, except there were a few more market...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
China In-Country Analysis
Livestock Live Hog Prices Weaken Further, Piglet Prices Surge Higher The national average live hog price continued to soften last week, shedding RMB .06/kg ($.004/lb.) or .4 percent. Even with feed prices continuing to fall, the operating loss per live hog worsened by RMB 6/head ($.88/head) or...
Friend-shoring Challenge
Friend-shoring or moving supply chains closer to being between like-minded nations doesn’t seem like an agriculture issue but it could become one. That is because the sector is increasingly being treated like a strategic asset, and it faces differentiated production standards as regulatio...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, KCBT Wheat Lead Tuesday Rallies; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with traders increasingly preparing and positioning for the coming acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soy complex was the upside leader for the day with turnaround in soymeal and soybeans gaining steam and attracting more technical buying interest. There...
Unhelpful Timing; Tai Strengths and Weaknesses; IPEF’s Weakness
Unhelpful Timing The U.S. agriculture sector unleashed a pro-trade barrage on the Biden Administration this week and USDA bureaucrats wittingly or unwittingly contributed to the onslaught. U.S. agriculture is highly dependent on trade. It was first battered by Donald Trump’s trade war and...
Meat Trade Changes
The U.S. is a major meat producer and exporters, and global demand has been growing. At the same time, competition has been growing and U.S. market share has been declining, though less for poultry than for beef. Brazil is a low-cost producer and has been a preferred provider for China where mu...
Long Term Energy Outlook: Exporting Ethanol, Importing Biomass Based Diesel
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for 2023 – that report is the Department of Energy’s equivalent to USDA’s long term baseline projection. The USDA’s report forecasts out to 2032, while the AEO forecasts to...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Grain markets have been upset by concerns that Russia could stop its export of wheat and sunflower seed on a temporary basis due to the recent drop in world prices. Discussions are expected in Russia this week bet...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises on Weather Concerns, Acres and Stocks Expectations
The CBOT was green across the board on Monday, though trading volume remained lighter than normal. Traders were focused on continued news from Russia that, even if it doesn’t limit wheat exports, it will seek to raise the export price of its products. That, combined with position evening...
Farm Bill Foci
While the human diet is a complex affair and animal protein, unlike many other commodities, lacks a title in the Farm Bill, it is the most egregious food to some activist groups. They specifically cite the contribution of livestock to climate change. These groups have some work cut out for them...
Rice is Tight
EU rice consumption has been rising at 1.8 percent CAGR at the same time production has fallen by 30 percent since 2018/19. Italy produces about half of the EU’s rice output, and it has suffered from drought. As a water intensive crop, climate change will have an outside impact on this st...
Broiler Production Up, but Not Caught Up with Pre-Pandemic Efficiency
The March WASDE projected broiler production to increase based on recent hatchery data. So far, broiler chicks placed through 18 March are 101 percent of last year at 2.05 billion. But there are still hatchability issues plaguing the sector, which encumber the potential number of chick placemen...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rain fell over the past few days and helped stop the deterioration of the corn crop, but this does not mean the estimate of between 35 and 36 MMT won't fall further. The harvest is complete across approximately 5 percent of the area with an average yield of 3.45 MT/ha. Everyone was expecti...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
After over a month of delays due to a cyberattack, the weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders' report is back. The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, t...
Oilseed Highlights – Head Spinning Fall
The Market Although May soybeans ended a bearish week with a 15.25 cent gain, it could not erase the damage done. In total, the contract lost 48.25 cents for a close at 1428.25/bushel, the lowest weekly close in five months. It doesn’t help that China’s soybean prices are collapsing...
Ready to Discuss; Iowa Competitive
Ready to Discuss After previously calling it unsustainable, the Biden Administration has reportedly notified WTO members that it is “ready to discuss” a 10-point proposal for reforming Special and Differential Treatment (S&DT) that has been drafted by developing countries. While...
Higher Octane Fuel Standards for Higher Ethanol Blend Proposed
On 7 March WPI reported: EPA issued a proposed rule on 1 March to provide a waiver of the Clean Air Act that would permit E15 use, through the summer months, in eight Midwestern states, in response to a petition from those states’ governors. However, the proposed EPA rule – if...