World Perspectives

Recent Asia Analysis

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 6 December)

Update for 6 December 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 5 December 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Com...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 5 December)

Data Updated Through: 5 December 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 5 December 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting   Dry-bulk markets look like they found...

livestock

Doubt About China’s Pork Renaissance

The Chinese government says it wants to restore domestic pork production to its prior glory, but history sheds doubt on its prospects. As noted previously, ASF has had a demonstrably larger impact on China than did BSE on Europe, and yet EU beef production and consumption have never fully recov...

livestock

Duty Free Pork Impact

U.S. pork producers are asking for zero duty access into the Chinese market, saying it would reduce the trade deficit by 6 percent. Without doubt, U.S. pork sales would increase if allowed unfettered access into China. Pork prices were generally higher in China before the outbreak of ASF (see g...

softs feed-grains

A Faint Light from Golden Rice

As someone who has for many years pursued a deep interest in the business and economics of agriculture and food, one of the greatest frustrations and disappointments is the organized, systematic opposition to nearly all the scientific and technical advances in food and agricultural production d...

Alignments Against Phase One; Coal Fired Electric Cars; Market Openings

Alignments Against Phase One The markets reacted today to negative news about the state of the U.S. – China trade war. Craig Allen, President of U.S.-China Business Council said he is pessimistic, suggesting that Xi Jinping does not trust Donald Trump and any phase one agreement will be b...

GMO versus GHG; State versus Commercial

GMO versus GHG Vietnam has delayed its decision to ban glyphosate into 2021 but Thailand has maintained its ban, which is adversely impacting U.S. commodity shipments with any residues. American officials are pressing their Thai counterparts to use science-based standards, but it is unclear how...

Trouble Targeting

USDA has targeted select foreign markets for increased attention this year, including sending trade missions to solicit sales. The success to date has been mixed. In part this is due to head winds such as the high value of the dollar and slower economic growth in countries impacted by the trade...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA Estimates: U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks.  Corn production is forecast at 13.661 billion bushels, down 118 million from last month on a 1.4-bushel reduction in yield to 167.0 bushels per acre.  The season-average corn price rece...

USMCA Trouble; Thai Troubles; Farmers versus the Facts

USMCA Trouble U.S. House Ways & Means trade subcommittee member Bill Pascrell (D-New Jersey) says he is leaning toward voting against USMCA because the Mexicans are not doing enough meaningful labor reform. Organized labor in the U.S. has taken a strong line, demanding actions by Mexico tha...

Argentine Election Impacts; Technological Sovereignty; Your Survey Answer; Food Trends

Argentina Election Impacts Argentines went to the voting booths for a general election yesterday (27 October) that was deemed fateful for agriculture. As the public opinion polls predicted, Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner won and will become President and Vice...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Food Demand Present and Future

In recent years, a number of agricultural futurists have expressed concern about the ability of the world to increase the food supply enough to feed the world’s population in 2050. The world population currently is about 7.3 billion people, and although the rate at which population is gro...

Canadian Ag Policy, Eh?; Korean Example at OECD

Canadian Ag Policy, Eh? After winning a plurality of seats but not a majority, Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party will have to govern as a coalition and no one expects much to happen, especially in rural western Canada. Western Canada, where the Conservatives control politics, is agriculture...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Miracle

The return of the Black Sea region as the breadbasket of the world is really a story about productivity gain. Over a decade (2008 to 2017), both China and Indonesia increased their total crop output by around 25 percent, but they did this in part by expanding their cropped areas by 10.7 percent...

S&DT Hypocrisy

The WTO operates as a democracy and it is said that democracies fail when the citizens ask for more than it can deliver. The Trump Administration goes to war with a majority of the WTO members at the next General Council meeting on 15 October. It will press its case that countries cannot concur...

Utopian Agriculture Irony; Trouble in Major Markets

Utopian Agriculture Irony Debating the future of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be a major objective for the new politicians in Brussels and the twists and turns ahead are fascinating.  First, there is the issue of crop protection. Chemophobia is in full swing with the demand to...

livestock

Hogs and Pigs Report Indicates Increased Slaughter Ahead

According to today’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report, the total swine inventory on 1 September was 77.7 million head, 103 percent of last year and of the 1 June inventory.   The numbers announced today overall were neutral to slightly bearish compared to the industry trade guesses pr...

livestock

Livestock Roundup

Hogs and Pigs Preview USDA will release its quarterly hogs and pigs report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total swine inventory at approximately 77.3 head, which is 103 percent of last year, which set a record for the 1 September herd. If the predictions are correct,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Trade news was floating through the air like snowflakes in December with President Trump noting that a trade deal with China could happen “sooner than you think”. U.S. Trade representative Lighthizer was more reserved in his comments and said “we’ll see” about a Ch...

Transatlantic Food Fight; Un-nice to Rice

  Transatlantic Food Fight U.S. producers are gearing up for what they foresee as a tightening regulatory blockade of their products going to Europe. Europe is moving sooner and faster on environmental restrictions and the expectation is that these become promulgated into import restrictio...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets found early, overnight strength after initial corn harvest results from parts of Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa showed areas where yields were 40 percent lower than 2018. Additional support came from confirmation that the cancelation of Chinese trade delegate visits to American farms l...

No China ASF Visit; Where Not What; KORUS Environmental Consultations

No China ASF Visit Wall Street and Chicago headed lower after President Trump signaled that trade negotiations with China were not proceeding as hoped. He basically said China purchasing agricultural commodities is not enough, that he wants a complete deal and he doesn’t need it before th...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA soyoil estimates: The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA soymeal estimates: The soybean meal price is projected at $305 per short ton, up $5.00. ...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 6 December)

Update for 6 December 2019: All other routes/offers updated through the day's close.  Note: Due to client request, WPI has added data for corn prices FOB France, Russia, and a general Black Sea price.   Freight Comments for 5 December 2019: Jay O’Neil, O’Neil Com...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 5 December)

Data Updated Through: 5 December 2019 Note: Due to client request, WPI has started including rates for 60,000 MT vessels from Russia and Ukraine to Egypt.  Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 5 December 2019 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting   Dry-bulk markets look like they found...

livestock

Doubt About China’s Pork Renaissance

The Chinese government says it wants to restore domestic pork production to its prior glory, but history sheds doubt on its prospects. As noted previously, ASF has had a demonstrably larger impact on China than did BSE on Europe, and yet EU beef production and consumption have never fully recov...

livestock

Duty Free Pork Impact

U.S. pork producers are asking for zero duty access into the Chinese market, saying it would reduce the trade deficit by 6 percent. Without doubt, U.S. pork sales would increase if allowed unfettered access into China. Pork prices were generally higher in China before the outbreak of ASF (see g...

softs feed-grains

A Faint Light from Golden Rice

As someone who has for many years pursued a deep interest in the business and economics of agriculture and food, one of the greatest frustrations and disappointments is the organized, systematic opposition to nearly all the scientific and technical advances in food and agricultural production d...

Alignments Against Phase One; Coal Fired Electric Cars; Market Openings

Alignments Against Phase One The markets reacted today to negative news about the state of the U.S. – China trade war. Craig Allen, President of U.S.-China Business Council said he is pessimistic, suggesting that Xi Jinping does not trust Donald Trump and any phase one agreement will be b...

GMO versus GHG; State versus Commercial

GMO versus GHG Vietnam has delayed its decision to ban glyphosate into 2021 but Thailand has maintained its ban, which is adversely impacting U.S. commodity shipments with any residues. American officials are pressing their Thai counterparts to use science-based standards, but it is unclear how...

Trouble Targeting

USDA has targeted select foreign markets for increased attention this year, including sending trade missions to solicit sales. The success to date has been mixed. In part this is due to head winds such as the high value of the dollar and slower economic growth in countries impacted by the trade...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA Estimates: U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks.  Corn production is forecast at 13.661 billion bushels, down 118 million from last month on a 1.4-bushel reduction in yield to 167.0 bushels per acre.  The season-average corn price rece...

USMCA Trouble; Thai Troubles; Farmers versus the Facts

USMCA Trouble U.S. House Ways & Means trade subcommittee member Bill Pascrell (D-New Jersey) says he is leaning toward voting against USMCA because the Mexicans are not doing enough meaningful labor reform. Organized labor in the U.S. has taken a strong line, demanding actions by Mexico tha...

Argentine Election Impacts; Technological Sovereignty; Your Survey Answer; Food Trends

Argentina Election Impacts Argentines went to the voting booths for a general election yesterday (27 October) that was deemed fateful for agriculture. As the public opinion polls predicted, Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner won and will become President and Vice...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Food Demand Present and Future

In recent years, a number of agricultural futurists have expressed concern about the ability of the world to increase the food supply enough to feed the world’s population in 2050. The world population currently is about 7.3 billion people, and although the rate at which population is gro...

Canadian Ag Policy, Eh?; Korean Example at OECD

Canadian Ag Policy, Eh? After winning a plurality of seats but not a majority, Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party will have to govern as a coalition and no one expects much to happen, especially in rural western Canada. Western Canada, where the Conservatives control politics, is agriculture...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Miracle

The return of the Black Sea region as the breadbasket of the world is really a story about productivity gain. Over a decade (2008 to 2017), both China and Indonesia increased their total crop output by around 25 percent, but they did this in part by expanding their cropped areas by 10.7 percent...

S&DT Hypocrisy

The WTO operates as a democracy and it is said that democracies fail when the citizens ask for more than it can deliver. The Trump Administration goes to war with a majority of the WTO members at the next General Council meeting on 15 October. It will press its case that countries cannot concur...

Utopian Agriculture Irony; Trouble in Major Markets

Utopian Agriculture Irony Debating the future of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be a major objective for the new politicians in Brussels and the twists and turns ahead are fascinating.  First, there is the issue of crop protection. Chemophobia is in full swing with the demand to...

livestock

Hogs and Pigs Report Indicates Increased Slaughter Ahead

According to today’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report, the total swine inventory on 1 September was 77.7 million head, 103 percent of last year and of the 1 June inventory.   The numbers announced today overall were neutral to slightly bearish compared to the industry trade guesses pr...

livestock

Livestock Roundup

Hogs and Pigs Preview USDA will release its quarterly hogs and pigs report tomorrow. Pre-report estimates from the industry peg the total swine inventory at approximately 77.3 head, which is 103 percent of last year, which set a record for the 1 September herd. If the predictions are correct,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Trade news was floating through the air like snowflakes in December with President Trump noting that a trade deal with China could happen “sooner than you think”. U.S. Trade representative Lighthizer was more reserved in his comments and said “we’ll see” about a Ch...

Transatlantic Food Fight; Un-nice to Rice

  Transatlantic Food Fight U.S. producers are gearing up for what they foresee as a tightening regulatory blockade of their products going to Europe. Europe is moving sooner and faster on environmental restrictions and the expectation is that these become promulgated into import restrictio...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets found early, overnight strength after initial corn harvest results from parts of Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa showed areas where yields were 40 percent lower than 2018. Additional support came from confirmation that the cancelation of Chinese trade delegate visits to American farms l...

No China ASF Visit; Where Not What; KORUS Environmental Consultations

No China ASF Visit Wall Street and Chicago headed lower after President Trump signaled that trade negotiations with China were not proceeding as hoped. He basically said China purchasing agricultural commodities is not enough, that he wants a complete deal and he doesn’t need it before th...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA soyoil estimates: The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA soymeal estimates: The soybean meal price is projected at $305 per short ton, up $5.00. ...

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