FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 2 July)
Freight Comments for 2 July 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Capesize dry-bulk vessels must be using rocket fuel in place of VLSFO as that market continued to skyrocket this week. Capesize owners and sellers felt embolden by the tight supply of available vessels in the Atlantic, an...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 2 July)
Data Updated Through: 2 July 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 2 July 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Capesize dry-bulk vessels must be using rocket fuel in place of VLSFO as that market continued to skyrocket this week. Capesize owners and sellers felt embolden by...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Corn Imports Grow
Global corn imports continue to expand but increases by Vietnam and the EU standout. Mexico remains a major market, but imports are growing at roughly the same rate as the world as a whole, around five percent per year. By contrast, over the past decade Vietnam’s corn imports have grown 1...
Rice Glass House
Both Brazil and the U.S. have issued protests over a Thai legal ban against imported commodities and food with residues of the weed killer paraquat and the pesticide chlorpyrifos. The ban will prevent billions of dollars of trade in wheat, soybeans and some foods. The two countries have asked T...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Government Takeover of Soy Crusher Vicentin Last week, Argentina’s government announced it would intervene in the bankruptcy of one of the nation’s biggest soybean crusher – Vicentine. The government is sending a proposal to Congress to take over the company. Vicentine has ove...
WASDE Corn
USDA's U.S. corn outlook is for 2020/21 supply to be up slightly and no changes in projected use; Ending stocks are 5 million bushels higher at 3.3 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.20 per bushel. Brazilian corn production is unchanged, as higher area is of...
Policy Shorts
Tokyo Challenges Beijing: While the EU has been reluctant to join a trade war with the U.S. against China, Japan’s Shinzō Abe appears to have sided with Washington. First, he supported a G7 statement against Beijing’s new controls over Hong Kong and now he has offered the island&rsq...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Shows Meat and Poultry Recovering Ahead of Schedule
Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast up from last month reflecting a faster than expected recovery from slaughter plant shutdowns, backlogs and reconfigured operations. Slaughter was down the last week of May due to Memorial Day, but last week rebound...
Rice as Laggard
It was noted yesterday that the growth in global production of wheat has tracked population growth whereas corn and soybeans have expanded exponentially more. Wheat is predominantly a food grain whereas corn and soybeans have fed the expanding animal protein sector. Rice is also predominantly a...
Parting Ways – The Strategy
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued its first regulatory guidance on genetically engineered crops in 1992 and by 1996 the first DNA modified seeds were going into the ground. European activists hated the idea. Called it Frankenfood and warned that the technology would lead to Armaged...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened higher overnight with strength from Tuesday’s reversals carrying through into trade early on Wednesday. The markets turned lower, however, as concerns about worsening relations between the U.S. and China weighed on futures. The soy complex took the brunt of that concern an...
Hong Kong is Trouble; EU Mugs the FAANG’s; Kenya’s Burdens
Hong Kong is Trouble Under a requirement from Congress, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo notified that Hong Kong was no longer autonomous from China. The announcement is in response to Beijing’s imposition of national security legislation on Hong Kong this week, but it has much larger...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Argentine Soy Sales; Thailand Restriction; Soy and COVID-19
Big U.S. Soybean Export Sales Last Week The week ending 14 May was a good one for U.S. exporters of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil according to today’s USDA export sales report. Large sales to China were the major reason. Net soybean export sales last week for shipment in 2019/20 totaled 1,...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Estimates - outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks in 2020/21. The soybean crop is projected at 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. The U.S. soybean crush for...
Dis-integrating Global Economy; Airplane War Update
Dis-integrating Global Economy Economists warn that protectionism will slow the global recovery but both governments and companies now view the retreat from China as inevitable. For one, supply chains were already being broken via the U.S. trade war with China and now COVID-19 reveals the fragi...
Wrong Negotiations; ROO Trumps Substantial Transformation
Wrong Negotiations Washington and London kick off two weeks of videoconference trade negotiations this week, hoping to reach an agreement this year. The gambit helps gives leverage to Boris Johnson’s Brexit negotiations with Brussels while Mr. Trump gets to poke a finger at the Commission...
WHO Guidance Effectiveness
The World Health Organization’s Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office issued an advisory recently that advised people to consume unsaturated fats such as those in fish, avocado, nuts, olive oil, soy, canola, sunflower and corn instead of the saturated fat in meat, butter, palm and coconut...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Heavy rains that fell across a large portion of Argentina’s agricultural area last week slowed the arrival of trucks to export ports. The number of trucks arriving daily fell from 2,400 in the prior week week to 1,400 last week. The number of truck arrivals at southern ports was stil...
Pandemic Predictions on Food
Many are calling for paradigm shifts in most societal functions and a lot of changes are already happening, but government will slow farming’s ability to react. Food Retail: Over half the money families spent on food was for meals prepared away from home. Amid stay at home orders, food de...
Higher Egg Demand
The coronavirus has likely contributed to a recent spike in U.S. egg demand and consequently prices as well. Production volume cuts occurred just ahead of this increased consumer demand. Meanwhile, margins earned by major egg producing companies has been healthy despite lower volumes due to the...
Virus and Trade
There is a debate over how much the coronavirus experience will impact international trade and globalization. On the one hand, dependence on supply chains that easily get broken and cross-contamination from international travel informs the negative side of the equation. On the other side are al...
Virus Economic Impact
How the economy and consumers react to the coronavirus will be important to the food and agriculture sector. A large economic decline like the Great Recession beginning in September 2008 caused the stock market to continue losing money until March of 2009. That means that any single day’s...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Updates Imploding financial markets, sharply weaker crude oil, and ever-growing concerns about the economic impacts of coronavirus continue to be the primary drivers of market action this week. Demand and consumption concerns are growing for most commodities, keeping prices on the defe...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 2 July)
Freight Comments for 2 July 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Capesize dry-bulk vessels must be using rocket fuel in place of VLSFO as that market continued to skyrocket this week. Capesize owners and sellers felt embolden by the tight supply of available vessels in the Atlantic, an...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 2 July)
Data Updated Through: 2 July 2020 Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 2 July 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Capesize dry-bulk vessels must be using rocket fuel in place of VLSFO as that market continued to skyrocket this week. Capesize owners and sellers felt embolden by...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Corn Imports Grow
Global corn imports continue to expand but increases by Vietnam and the EU standout. Mexico remains a major market, but imports are growing at roughly the same rate as the world as a whole, around five percent per year. By contrast, over the past decade Vietnam’s corn imports have grown 1...
Rice Glass House
Both Brazil and the U.S. have issued protests over a Thai legal ban against imported commodities and food with residues of the weed killer paraquat and the pesticide chlorpyrifos. The ban will prevent billions of dollars of trade in wheat, soybeans and some foods. The two countries have asked T...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Government Takeover of Soy Crusher Vicentin Last week, Argentina’s government announced it would intervene in the bankruptcy of one of the nation’s biggest soybean crusher – Vicentine. The government is sending a proposal to Congress to take over the company. Vicentine has ove...
WASDE Corn
USDA's U.S. corn outlook is for 2020/21 supply to be up slightly and no changes in projected use; Ending stocks are 5 million bushels higher at 3.3 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.20 per bushel. Brazilian corn production is unchanged, as higher area is of...
Policy Shorts
Tokyo Challenges Beijing: While the EU has been reluctant to join a trade war with the U.S. against China, Japan’s Shinzō Abe appears to have sided with Washington. First, he supported a G7 statement against Beijing’s new controls over Hong Kong and now he has offered the island&rsq...
Livestock Round Up: WASDE Shows Meat and Poultry Recovering Ahead of Schedule
Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast up from last month reflecting a faster than expected recovery from slaughter plant shutdowns, backlogs and reconfigured operations. Slaughter was down the last week of May due to Memorial Day, but last week rebound...
Rice as Laggard
It was noted yesterday that the growth in global production of wheat has tracked population growth whereas corn and soybeans have expanded exponentially more. Wheat is predominantly a food grain whereas corn and soybeans have fed the expanding animal protein sector. Rice is also predominantly a...
Parting Ways – The Strategy
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issued its first regulatory guidance on genetically engineered crops in 1992 and by 1996 the first DNA modified seeds were going into the ground. European activists hated the idea. Called it Frankenfood and warned that the technology would lead to Armaged...
Market Commentary
The CBOT opened higher overnight with strength from Tuesday’s reversals carrying through into trade early on Wednesday. The markets turned lower, however, as concerns about worsening relations between the U.S. and China weighed on futures. The soy complex took the brunt of that concern an...
Hong Kong is Trouble; EU Mugs the FAANG’s; Kenya’s Burdens
Hong Kong is Trouble Under a requirement from Congress, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo notified that Hong Kong was no longer autonomous from China. The announcement is in response to Beijing’s imposition of national security legislation on Hong Kong this week, but it has much larger...
Oilseed Highlights: Export Sales; Argentine Soy Sales; Thailand Restriction; Soy and COVID-19
Big U.S. Soybean Export Sales Last Week The week ending 14 May was a good one for U.S. exporters of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil according to today’s USDA export sales report. Large sales to China were the major reason. Net soybean export sales last week for shipment in 2019/20 totaled 1,...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA Estimates - outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks in 2020/21. The soybean crop is projected at 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. The U.S. soybean crush for...
Dis-integrating Global Economy; Airplane War Update
Dis-integrating Global Economy Economists warn that protectionism will slow the global recovery but both governments and companies now view the retreat from China as inevitable. For one, supply chains were already being broken via the U.S. trade war with China and now COVID-19 reveals the fragi...
Wrong Negotiations; ROO Trumps Substantial Transformation
Wrong Negotiations Washington and London kick off two weeks of videoconference trade negotiations this week, hoping to reach an agreement this year. The gambit helps gives leverage to Boris Johnson’s Brexit negotiations with Brussels while Mr. Trump gets to poke a finger at the Commission...
WHO Guidance Effectiveness
The World Health Organization’s Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office issued an advisory recently that advised people to consume unsaturated fats such as those in fish, avocado, nuts, olive oil, soy, canola, sunflower and corn instead of the saturated fat in meat, butter, palm and coconut...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Heavy rains that fell across a large portion of Argentina’s agricultural area last week slowed the arrival of trucks to export ports. The number of trucks arriving daily fell from 2,400 in the prior week week to 1,400 last week. The number of truck arrivals at southern ports was stil...
Pandemic Predictions on Food
Many are calling for paradigm shifts in most societal functions and a lot of changes are already happening, but government will slow farming’s ability to react. Food Retail: Over half the money families spent on food was for meals prepared away from home. Amid stay at home orders, food de...
Higher Egg Demand
The coronavirus has likely contributed to a recent spike in U.S. egg demand and consequently prices as well. Production volume cuts occurred just ahead of this increased consumer demand. Meanwhile, margins earned by major egg producing companies has been healthy despite lower volumes due to the...
Virus and Trade
There is a debate over how much the coronavirus experience will impact international trade and globalization. On the one hand, dependence on supply chains that easily get broken and cross-contamination from international travel informs the negative side of the equation. On the other side are al...
Virus Economic Impact
How the economy and consumers react to the coronavirus will be important to the food and agriculture sector. A large economic decline like the Great Recession beginning in September 2008 caused the stock market to continue losing money until March of 2009. That means that any single day’s...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Regional Updates Imploding financial markets, sharply weaker crude oil, and ever-growing concerns about the economic impacts of coronavirus continue to be the primary drivers of market action this week. Demand and consumption concerns are growing for most commodities, keeping prices on the defe...