Recent Biofuels Analysis
Do Oil and Ethanol Finally Agree on Something?
For the past 2 years the ethanol industry has hounded EPA about its use of small refinery exemptions (SREs), calling the increase in exempted volumes in recent years illegal. Apparently, the American Petroleum Institute (API) agrees. In comments filedlate last week on EPA’s proposed...
Energy and Ethanol Outlook
Energy markets mostly bounced back today after a Black Friday shortened trading session where energy futures dipped across the board. On Friday, crude oil was down about $3.00 per barrel, gasoline down more than $0.08 per gallon and diesel about $0.07 per gallon. Ethanol followed, with the Janu...
More Cars Approved for E15, but Trend is Toward Fewer Cars
E15-approved vehicles are increasing, while E15-capable flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) are decreasing according to a recent study by the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA). According to RFA’s survey of manufacturers’ owners’ manuals for automakers responsible for 95 percent of...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Market Commentary
A lack of follow-through buying in wheat during the overnight session created a weaker open at the CBOT today. Soyoil led the soy complex lower while corn moved to slight losses in extremely low volume trading. Wheat gave back most of its gains from yesterday, signaling that yesterday’s r...
Market Commentary
The CBOT today saw light liquidation in soybeans, early short covering in corn that eventually broke down into a lower close, and continued bull spreading in soyoil. The ongoing U.S. harvest remains a bearish factor with cash sales accelerating and weakening basis levels. Overall, the market wa...
Odd Ethanol Economics
The Golden state is being challenged over the saying, as goes California, so goes the Nation. Egg farmers in other states are challenging Sacramento’s dictate on how they farm, and the Trump Administration is challenging the state on at least two fronts: the imposition of its own stiffer...
Ag Review - October 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers changes in China’s meat consumption, a review of the Department of Commerce’s international trade report and what it might tell us about the U.S. economy, an overview of...
House Biofuel Hearing on “Abuse of Secret Waivers” - Octane Standard Proposed
The House Energy and Commerce Committee held a hearing this morning entitled, “Protecting the RFS: The Trump Administration’s Abuse of Secret Waivers” about the small refinery exemption (SRE) process. Specifically, the hearing focused on a legislative proposal sponsored by Hou...
SRE Saga Continues; Administration Ready to be Done
As we’ve noted, both the biofuels and petroleum industry are less than impressed with the Administration’s plan to reallocate SREs as a supplement to the 2020 required volume obligations (RVOs). Both industries have reacted negatively and RINs prices have dropped, but the plan is un...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics China’s Monthly Food Inflation Highest in Eight Years The sharp rise in live hog prices along with increases in the costs of poultry and seafood, pushed up food inflation in September to its highest level since October 2011. Back in 2011, China was going through a maj...
EPA Biofuel Plans Locks in E15
The Trump Administration rolled out its proposed reforms to the biofuels required volume obligations (RVO) today. • EPA will project the amount of SRE’s exempted in a program year by using as a reference the past three years’ volumes recommended by the Department of...
Biofuel Rule Moving Forward; Record Ethanol Inventory Drop
Last Friday, the Administration announced its plans to boost the ethanol volumes under the RFS to “more than 15 billion gallons,” however, as we reported on Tuesday of this week, it is more likely that EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out...
Market Commentary
Trading started out on a firmer note before bulls backed off and let prices drift lower into the close. The trade is cautious of being too bullish about the October WASDE, having projected bullish statistics for almost every report this summer, only to have USDA release big crop/big stocks numb...
Ethanol Increase: More Art than Science
EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out at 15 billion gallons; that is the latest word on the new biofuels package proposed by the Administration according to commentary from EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. The 2020 RVOs have been a political hot potato for...
Politics, Government Reports and Biofuels
In the past week there has been a lot for the biofuels markets to digest and ponder, ranging from new numbers from EIA and USDA to the impact of the current political situation on key policy issues and the markets. First, the easier to grasp matters, are the recent data releases. Yesterday, USD...
Market Commentary
Trade news was floating through the air like snowflakes in December with President Trump noting that a trade deal with China could happen “sooner than you think”. U.S. Trade representative Lighthizer was more reserved in his comments and said “we’ll see” about a Ch...
Biofuels Deal Unravelling
The more time that goes by the task of finding a policy “fix” for the current ethanol demand becomes more difficult. Indeed, there is a basic disagreement in what the problem is. The biofuels industry argues that the small refinery exemptions (SRE) have caused “demand destruct...
How Many Electoral Votes per Gallon of Biofuels?
Reportedly, the “giant package” of RFS and biofuel actions that was originally expected to be released this week is back on the proverbial drawing board, and rest assured it is overlaid with a giant electoral map. If the plan’s fate does come down to raw electoral...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Dryness, Soy Export Sales, NOPA Crush, Biodiesel Blend Mandate
Dry Weather Expected to Delay Brazil Soy Plantings A year ago, an early start to the rainy season in Brazil allowed earlier than normal plantings of soybeans in Parana and states in the Center West. That, in turn, allowed for an early harvest and earlier plantings of corn in the dry season. Thi...
ASF Cuts China’s Swine Demand for Corn
The Chinese government announced last year a 10-percent ethanol blend mandate effective in 2020. The move brought encouragement to corn and ethanol makers elsewhere in the world since China’s huge corn stocks keep global prices depressed. However, now Wu Tianlong of the quasi-governmental...
Market Commentary
The CBOT found plenty of support today from the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia that sent crude oil futures sharply higher. Between the support building late last week anyway, the weekend news was sufficient to keep sellers at bay in nearly every commodity except soymeal. Soyoil, biodiesel and e...
Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?
Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the 2020 required volume obligation (RVO) to offset the exempted fuels under the small refinery waivers. First, the Saudi situation. Over the we...
Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?
The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exemption (SRE) impact on biofuel volumes. Initial reports from the meetings indicated that SREs were not going away, then subsequent reports to...
Do Oil and Ethanol Finally Agree on Something?
For the past 2 years the ethanol industry has hounded EPA about its use of small refinery exemptions (SREs), calling the increase in exempted volumes in recent years illegal. Apparently, the American Petroleum Institute (API) agrees. In comments filedlate last week on EPA’s proposed...
Energy and Ethanol Outlook
Energy markets mostly bounced back today after a Black Friday shortened trading session where energy futures dipped across the board. On Friday, crude oil was down about $3.00 per barrel, gasoline down more than $0.08 per gallon and diesel about $0.07 per gallon. Ethanol followed, with the Janu...
More Cars Approved for E15, but Trend is Toward Fewer Cars
E15-approved vehicles are increasing, while E15-capable flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) are decreasing according to a recent study by the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA). According to RFA’s survey of manufacturers’ owners’ manuals for automakers responsible for 95 percent of...
Policy Round Up
India Trade The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is reporting that progress is being made in trade negotiations with the U.S. and details could be forthcoming within a couple of weeks. In fact, India is stepping up their trade agenda across the board. India moved this week on a tra...
Market Commentary
A lack of follow-through buying in wheat during the overnight session created a weaker open at the CBOT today. Soyoil led the soy complex lower while corn moved to slight losses in extremely low volume trading. Wheat gave back most of its gains from yesterday, signaling that yesterday’s r...
Market Commentary
The CBOT today saw light liquidation in soybeans, early short covering in corn that eventually broke down into a lower close, and continued bull spreading in soyoil. The ongoing U.S. harvest remains a bearish factor with cash sales accelerating and weakening basis levels. Overall, the market wa...
Odd Ethanol Economics
The Golden state is being challenged over the saying, as goes California, so goes the Nation. Egg farmers in other states are challenging Sacramento’s dictate on how they farm, and the Trump Administration is challenging the state on at least two fronts: the imposition of its own stiffer...
Ag Review - October 2019
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers changes in China’s meat consumption, a review of the Department of Commerce’s international trade report and what it might tell us about the U.S. economy, an overview of...
House Biofuel Hearing on “Abuse of Secret Waivers” - Octane Standard Proposed
The House Energy and Commerce Committee held a hearing this morning entitled, “Protecting the RFS: The Trump Administration’s Abuse of Secret Waivers” about the small refinery exemption (SRE) process. Specifically, the hearing focused on a legislative proposal sponsored by Hou...
SRE Saga Continues; Administration Ready to be Done
As we’ve noted, both the biofuels and petroleum industry are less than impressed with the Administration’s plan to reallocate SREs as a supplement to the 2020 required volume obligations (RVOs). Both industries have reacted negatively and RINs prices have dropped, but the plan is un...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics China’s Monthly Food Inflation Highest in Eight Years The sharp rise in live hog prices along with increases in the costs of poultry and seafood, pushed up food inflation in September to its highest level since October 2011. Back in 2011, China was going through a maj...
EPA Biofuel Plans Locks in E15
The Trump Administration rolled out its proposed reforms to the biofuels required volume obligations (RVO) today. • EPA will project the amount of SRE’s exempted in a program year by using as a reference the past three years’ volumes recommended by the Department of...
Biofuel Rule Moving Forward; Record Ethanol Inventory Drop
Last Friday, the Administration announced its plans to boost the ethanol volumes under the RFS to “more than 15 billion gallons,” however, as we reported on Tuesday of this week, it is more likely that EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out...
Market Commentary
Trading started out on a firmer note before bulls backed off and let prices drift lower into the close. The trade is cautious of being too bullish about the October WASDE, having projected bullish statistics for almost every report this summer, only to have USDA release big crop/big stocks numb...
Ethanol Increase: More Art than Science
EPA will set ethanol Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for 2020 to net out at 15 billion gallons; that is the latest word on the new biofuels package proposed by the Administration according to commentary from EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. The 2020 RVOs have been a political hot potato for...
Politics, Government Reports and Biofuels
In the past week there has been a lot for the biofuels markets to digest and ponder, ranging from new numbers from EIA and USDA to the impact of the current political situation on key policy issues and the markets. First, the easier to grasp matters, are the recent data releases. Yesterday, USD...
Market Commentary
Trade news was floating through the air like snowflakes in December with President Trump noting that a trade deal with China could happen “sooner than you think”. U.S. Trade representative Lighthizer was more reserved in his comments and said “we’ll see” about a Ch...
Biofuels Deal Unravelling
The more time that goes by the task of finding a policy “fix” for the current ethanol demand becomes more difficult. Indeed, there is a basic disagreement in what the problem is. The biofuels industry argues that the small refinery exemptions (SRE) have caused “demand destruct...
How Many Electoral Votes per Gallon of Biofuels?
Reportedly, the “giant package” of RFS and biofuel actions that was originally expected to be released this week is back on the proverbial drawing board, and rest assured it is overlaid with a giant electoral map. If the plan’s fate does come down to raw electoral...
Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Dryness, Soy Export Sales, NOPA Crush, Biodiesel Blend Mandate
Dry Weather Expected to Delay Brazil Soy Plantings A year ago, an early start to the rainy season in Brazil allowed earlier than normal plantings of soybeans in Parana and states in the Center West. That, in turn, allowed for an early harvest and earlier plantings of corn in the dry season. Thi...
ASF Cuts China’s Swine Demand for Corn
The Chinese government announced last year a 10-percent ethanol blend mandate effective in 2020. The move brought encouragement to corn and ethanol makers elsewhere in the world since China’s huge corn stocks keep global prices depressed. However, now Wu Tianlong of the quasi-governmental...
Market Commentary
The CBOT found plenty of support today from the weekend attack in Saudi Arabia that sent crude oil futures sharply higher. Between the support building late last week anyway, the weekend news was sufficient to keep sellers at bay in nearly every commodity except soymeal. Soyoil, biodiesel and e...
Big Boost for Ethanol Coming?
Two events have the attention of the ethanol market: the drone attack on the Saudi oil fields and the expected announcement from the Administration on the 2020 required volume obligation (RVO) to offset the exempted fuels under the small refinery waivers. First, the Saudi situation. Over the we...
Another 1 Billion Gallons to the 2020 RVO?
The ethanol saga continues. After White House meetings yesterday, some details are being leaked on a potential “fix” to the small refinery exemption (SRE) impact on biofuel volumes. Initial reports from the meetings indicated that SREs were not going away, then subsequent reports to...