Recent Biofuels Analysis
Market Commentary
The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...
Market Commentary
It has been more than 10 days since the Trump-Xi meeting in Buenos Aires wherein, according to President Trump and others in attendance, China agreed to purchase a large quantity of U.S agricultural and energy products. Yet there is no apparent sign to date that actual business has occurred. Gr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Middle East/North Africa (MENA) buyers of Ukraine’s wheat and corn are very concerned about the situation that has developed between that country and Russia in the Kerch Strait that abuts Crimea. While Russia says that the strait is oper...
Farm Bill and Ethanol in Congress’s Closing Stretch
The final draft of the 2018 Farm Bill conference agreement is likely to be released tomorrow, and a final vote could take place as soon as Wednesday (12 December). Focus will be centered on the following key items and whether the final text delivers the anticipated changes: Margin Protection P...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India Oil Meal Exports Up Oil meal exports of 2.043 MMT for April-November were almost 10 percent higher versus 1.855 MMT for the same period last year. October 2018 was the start of the soymeal season, and nearly 0.367 MMT were exported in the two-month period since then, up 32.73 percen...
A Look at the U.S.-Chinese “Agreement”
In terms of publicity, the biggest news coming out of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires late last week had nothing to do with that gathering. Instead, it concerned the dinner meeting between President Trump, President Xi and groups of advisors that resulted in the announcement of a temporary truc...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. China-Trade Truce Impact Unclear; Brazil’s Huge Soy Crop; Duties on Argentine Biodiesel Imports
U.S.-China Trade Truce’s Impact on Soybeans Far from Clear Now that there is a 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China, the U.S. and South American soybean sectors along with Chinese soybean importers are all trying to determine how they will be affected. President Trump has indicat...
Market Commentary
Soy and soy product futures prices were mostly firmer overnight as the market built on yesterday’s turnaround rally. Corn and wheat prices stayed nearer to yesterday’s closes. About the time of the trading recess, Chinese President Xi declared in a speech to the Spanish parliament t...
High Octane Legislative Proposal
A pair of Republican lawmakers in the House of Representatives used the day before Thanksgiving to release a new proposal for Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) reform that would replace the annual mandated volumes with a new standard for high octane finished motor fuel. Those two are Representative...
Market Commentary
Trading volume in all markets was extremely light today, which is not surprising as it was a holiday-shortened session. This is also Black Friday, and there is greater interest in shopping than trading. Wheat popped early on news that Egypt had purchased two cargoes of U.S. soft red winter whea...
Market Commentary
U.S. trading offices were likely only half-staffed today and possibly less than that. It is always tempting to expand a Thursday holiday into a Wednesday-Sunday affair, especially when grain markets are doing little of significance. That certainly describes their performance of late, and the re...
Odds and Ends
With the corn/soybean harvests in their final stage and the normal slowdown of a holiday week, the current markets may not generate much that deserves analysis. There is some history of significant short-term price action on the Friday following the Thanksgiving Day market closure. For whatever...
Ethanol Exports Can’t Draw Down Stocks
Ethanol exports are on track to set a record in 2018 and will likely top 1.6 billion gallons, approximately 10 percent of all production. However, robust sales have not been able to hold off the building of stocks due to the pace of production. Those stocks reached 23,514 barrels for the week e...
Market Commentary
The soybean market’s early rally on further reports of discussions on trade between high-level U.S. and Chinese officials helped pull the rest of the markets higher – at least for a while. At their daily highs, December corn was up 4.75 cents with Chicago December wheat up 6 cents...
Market Commentary
Yesterday commodity markets were dominated by NYMEX crude oil’s precipitous decline, but today that market stabilized and actually closed a little higher to end its 12-day losing streak. This allowed other commodities to return to their own specifics. Unfortunately for the grain and soy f...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Rapeseed; Brazil’s Soybean Exports; U.S. Soybean Inspections; Argentine Biodiesel
European Rapeseed Plantings Down Sharply The head of the French Federation of Oilseed and Protein Crop Producers (FOP) indicated last week that the country’s winter rapeseed plantings will likely decrease 30-35 percent from last year due to the lack of rain this fall. While that suggests...
2019 Biofuel Volumes Being Finalized
The final 2019 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) are being reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The statute requires that the volumes be published by 30 November. The EPA submitted its draft of the final rule to OMB on 31 October and pu...
Ag Review - October 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Blockage; Brazil and Biodiesel; U.S. Export Sales and Soy Crush
China Blocking Discharge of U.S. Soybean Cargoes When China imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans on 6 July, it was assumed that they could still be imported if the duty was paid. However, that appears to not be the case as reports indicate China has prevented the discharge o...
Market Commentary
It may be Halloween, but grain and soy markets carefully stayed away from anything scary or spooky today. Overnight trade saw prices stuck in narrow ranges. Corn and wheat were slightly lower, but soybeans were up a couple of cents at the break for breakfast. Wheat and soybean prices then moved...
Market Commentary
Grain markets are dealing with several headwinds. One is the slow pace of fall harvests and winter wheat seeding. Although considerable harvest progress was made last week, the U.S. corn harvest at 63 percent complete is just at its five-year average. The soybean harvest gained 19 percent to re...
Ethanol: Slow Bureaucracy and Growing Stocks
The EPA has revealed its rule-making timeline regarding a waiver for year-round consumption of E15, and the proposed rule is targeted for February. After comments are received and reviewed, the planned deadline for the final rule is May. The ethanol industry has expressed frustration with this...
Fundamentally Fair Values
Futures markets are all about anticipating the direction that prices for the underlying instrument will take at certain specific points of time in the future, and each has spawned its own cottage industry of analysts who perform that task. Price forecasting can be for periods as near as 30-60 d...
Market Commentary
Although overnight trading volume in currencies, interest rates, stock indexes and crude oil was heavier than usual, grain and soy futures prices continued to plod along on their own. Prices eased in relatively slow trade, but they mostly stayed within their recent trading ranges. One exception...
Market Commentary
The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...
Market Commentary
It has been more than 10 days since the Trump-Xi meeting in Buenos Aires wherein, according to President Trump and others in attendance, China agreed to purchase a large quantity of U.S agricultural and energy products. Yet there is no apparent sign to date that actual business has occurred. Gr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Middle East/North Africa (MENA) buyers of Ukraine’s wheat and corn are very concerned about the situation that has developed between that country and Russia in the Kerch Strait that abuts Crimea. While Russia says that the strait is oper...
Farm Bill and Ethanol in Congress’s Closing Stretch
The final draft of the 2018 Farm Bill conference agreement is likely to be released tomorrow, and a final vote could take place as soon as Wednesday (12 December). Focus will be centered on the following key items and whether the final text delivers the anticipated changes: Margin Protection P...
India Subcontinent Regional Analysis
India Oil Meal Exports Up Oil meal exports of 2.043 MMT for April-November were almost 10 percent higher versus 1.855 MMT for the same period last year. October 2018 was the start of the soymeal season, and nearly 0.367 MMT were exported in the two-month period since then, up 32.73 percen...
A Look at the U.S.-Chinese “Agreement”
In terms of publicity, the biggest news coming out of the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires late last week had nothing to do with that gathering. Instead, it concerned the dinner meeting between President Trump, President Xi and groups of advisors that resulted in the announcement of a temporary truc...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. China-Trade Truce Impact Unclear; Brazil’s Huge Soy Crop; Duties on Argentine Biodiesel Imports
U.S.-China Trade Truce’s Impact on Soybeans Far from Clear Now that there is a 90-day trade truce between the U.S. and China, the U.S. and South American soybean sectors along with Chinese soybean importers are all trying to determine how they will be affected. President Trump has indicat...
Market Commentary
Soy and soy product futures prices were mostly firmer overnight as the market built on yesterday’s turnaround rally. Corn and wheat prices stayed nearer to yesterday’s closes. About the time of the trading recess, Chinese President Xi declared in a speech to the Spanish parliament t...
High Octane Legislative Proposal
A pair of Republican lawmakers in the House of Representatives used the day before Thanksgiving to release a new proposal for Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) reform that would replace the annual mandated volumes with a new standard for high octane finished motor fuel. Those two are Representative...
Market Commentary
Trading volume in all markets was extremely light today, which is not surprising as it was a holiday-shortened session. This is also Black Friday, and there is greater interest in shopping than trading. Wheat popped early on news that Egypt had purchased two cargoes of U.S. soft red winter whea...
Market Commentary
U.S. trading offices were likely only half-staffed today and possibly less than that. It is always tempting to expand a Thursday holiday into a Wednesday-Sunday affair, especially when grain markets are doing little of significance. That certainly describes their performance of late, and the re...
Odds and Ends
With the corn/soybean harvests in their final stage and the normal slowdown of a holiday week, the current markets may not generate much that deserves analysis. There is some history of significant short-term price action on the Friday following the Thanksgiving Day market closure. For whatever...
Ethanol Exports Can’t Draw Down Stocks
Ethanol exports are on track to set a record in 2018 and will likely top 1.6 billion gallons, approximately 10 percent of all production. However, robust sales have not been able to hold off the building of stocks due to the pace of production. Those stocks reached 23,514 barrels for the week e...
Market Commentary
The soybean market’s early rally on further reports of discussions on trade between high-level U.S. and Chinese officials helped pull the rest of the markets higher – at least for a while. At their daily highs, December corn was up 4.75 cents with Chicago December wheat up 6 cents...
Market Commentary
Yesterday commodity markets were dominated by NYMEX crude oil’s precipitous decline, but today that market stabilized and actually closed a little higher to end its 12-day losing streak. This allowed other commodities to return to their own specifics. Unfortunately for the grain and soy f...
Oilseed Highlights: EU Rapeseed; Brazil’s Soybean Exports; U.S. Soybean Inspections; Argentine Biodiesel
European Rapeseed Plantings Down Sharply The head of the French Federation of Oilseed and Protein Crop Producers (FOP) indicated last week that the country’s winter rapeseed plantings will likely decrease 30-35 percent from last year due to the lack of rain this fall. While that suggests...
2019 Biofuel Volumes Being Finalized
The final 2019 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) are being reviewed by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). The statute requires that the volumes be published by 30 November. The EPA submitted its draft of the final rule to OMB on 31 October and pu...
Ag Review - October 2018
WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusiness, U.S. soybean marketing strategies, the U.S. biofuels industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performance...
Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soybean Blockage; Brazil and Biodiesel; U.S. Export Sales and Soy Crush
China Blocking Discharge of U.S. Soybean Cargoes When China imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans on 6 July, it was assumed that they could still be imported if the duty was paid. However, that appears to not be the case as reports indicate China has prevented the discharge o...
Market Commentary
It may be Halloween, but grain and soy markets carefully stayed away from anything scary or spooky today. Overnight trade saw prices stuck in narrow ranges. Corn and wheat were slightly lower, but soybeans were up a couple of cents at the break for breakfast. Wheat and soybean prices then moved...
Market Commentary
Grain markets are dealing with several headwinds. One is the slow pace of fall harvests and winter wheat seeding. Although considerable harvest progress was made last week, the U.S. corn harvest at 63 percent complete is just at its five-year average. The soybean harvest gained 19 percent to re...
Ethanol: Slow Bureaucracy and Growing Stocks
The EPA has revealed its rule-making timeline regarding a waiver for year-round consumption of E15, and the proposed rule is targeted for February. After comments are received and reviewed, the planned deadline for the final rule is May. The ethanol industry has expressed frustration with this...
Fundamentally Fair Values
Futures markets are all about anticipating the direction that prices for the underlying instrument will take at certain specific points of time in the future, and each has spawned its own cottage industry of analysts who perform that task. Price forecasting can be for periods as near as 30-60 d...
Market Commentary
Although overnight trading volume in currencies, interest rates, stock indexes and crude oil was heavier than usual, grain and soy futures prices continued to plod along on their own. Prices eased in relatively slow trade, but they mostly stayed within their recent trading ranges. One exception...