Recent Biofuels Analysis
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Geopolitics has China redirecting its imports to South America, and food security concerns cause barriers in many countries...
Temporary E15 Waiver Made a Difference in 2022
Ethanol blending rates increased in 2022 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), especially during this summer. In April the Biden EPA issued a one-year emergency waiver to allow year-round E15 in part to reduce retail gasoline prices in response to supply chain disruptions, t...
Another Look at the RVOs for Ethanol
On Friday 2 December, WPI broke down the proposed 2023 - 2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The rule was 692 pages long, and away from the top line summary, there are a few other bits of information worth taking a second look at and putting into context w...
Proposed RVOs: Canola Oil and Electric Vehicles are the Winners
The EPA released the proposed required volume obligations for 2023 through 2025 yesterday. Below is a summary of the proposed volumes by category. The top takeaways: In a separate proposed rule issued with the RVOs, EPA finalized an approved pathway for canola oil to be used in renewable die...
American Petroleum Institute Backs Year-Round E15
The American Petroleum Institute (AP), the association of oil drilling, refining, and natural gas producing companies, joined this week in signing a letter to Congress backing a move to grant year-round use of E15. Other signatories to the letter included the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), G...
2023 Biofuel RVOs Delayed from Tomorrow Release
The EPA’s proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for 2023 will not be released tomorrow as was previously expected under the terms of a consent decree, which originally set a date of 16 September. That was later agreed by both parties to be extended to 16 November. Those parties inclu...
King and Queen Pillage the Village
King corn is losing a battle with Queen soybeans, and this has activated the politicians for another round of support. Renewable diesel is projected to increase five-fold from 1 billion to 5 billion gallons by 2026. Almost $2.6 billion is being invested in increased soybean crush capacity to me...
Future of the RFS 2023 and Beyond
2023 marks a major shift in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). From the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act until this year, the annual required volume obligations (RVOs) under the RFS were set by statute; that changes in 2023, and so could the mix of renewable fuels – or at least t...
Proposed 2023 RVOs Coming in November
On 11 July, WPI reported that the 2023 required volume obligations (RVOs) were expected to come in mid-September; that was based on a proposed consent decree from EPA with the biofuels association Growth Energy who filed a complaint in April over EPA’s failure to promulgate a rule establi...
60 Days Until RFS Reset: Things to Watch
In 2005 Congress passed the Energy Policy Act (EPA) which created the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) statutory schedule. The 2005 EPA was amended it in 2007 with the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) which expanded those categories. The bottom line is that renewable fuels were schedule...
4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol
Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasting the total to be roughly equal to 2019, prior to COVID. A few factors are at play for increased car travel: after two years of...
EPA’s Final RVO Rule
As Matt Herrington noted on Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency released the final required volume obligations (RVO) rule which set the biofuels blending levels for 2021 (retroactively) and 2022 (six months late, and five months into the compliance year). Following is the br...
No 1970’s Analog
The U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to accomplish a so-called soft-landing of the economy back down to a low inflation, modest growth, low unemployment scenario. An increasing number of voices are signaling their skepticism that this can be accomplished. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even concedes...
Dwindling Diesel Stocks, Increasing Demand
Add diesel fuel supplies to market anxieties over shortages and high prices. Diesel hit all-time record prices this week. Both gasoline and diesel rose sharply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but in the last two weeks, diesel prices spiked again. And the medium-term outlook remains bu...
Eight State Plan for E15 Equivalent to Adding One Large Ethanol Mill
In April, the Biden Administration’s EPA announced that it would provide a temporary waiver for year-round E15 (see WPI’s article about the immediate market reaction here, and a breakdown of the actual impact here). In the end, the waiver adds about 107 days of more demand for E15 i...
Ethanol Sobriety Check
Politics and not economics drove the White House announcement today to approve year-round E15 fuel sales under an emergency waiver of the Clean Air Act’s requirements. Ethanol makes sense as an octane booster but less so as a gasoline substitute. Blending at the E15 level is already allow...
Ag Policy Options Being Consider Regarding Russia/Ukraine Situation
As is typical when there is a crisis – from foreign policy issues, to the China trade situation, to animal disease, to COVID, and more – the market gets bombarded with rumors, leaks and speculation about potential emergency policy actions which may – or may not – be take...
Trade Policy Confusion; Energy Confusion
Trade Policy Confusion In its annual report to Congress yesterday on trade relations with China, USTR asserted that, “China has a poor record when it comes to complying with WTO rules” and suggested the Biden Administration is looking for a new strategy to address the Middle Kingdom...
E15 versus EVs
As we wrote just over one year ago, on 1 February 2021, … the general trend of fuel policy is clearly shifting the struggle from how much of the tank is filled with gasoline versus biofuel to a struggle between liquid fuel and alternatives. … Whether the petroleum and biofuels ind...
RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook
Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came after two months of steady increases based on a bright outlook for retail motor fuel use this year. Recall on 7 December, the Administration...
EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade
On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulatory agenda related to renewable fuels that it also announced in December. The 2023 RVO’s, proposed this spring, will be the...
Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs
There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues. SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage implying that the EPA will deny all pending small refinery exemption (SRE) requests. But as we wrote on 7 December, that action would be&nb...
Retro RVOs May Disappoint, but 2022 RVO Bullish Corn and Veg Oil
EPA released its 2022 proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS along with the retroactive 2021 volumes and an adjustment to the 2020 volumes. EPA is also proposing to add a 250-million-gallon “supplemental obligation” to the volumes proposed for 2022 and...
Ethanol Starting Out Marketing Year Strong; Vilsack Says RVOs Coming
USDA released the October Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was up 16 percent from October 2020, and up 15 percent from September. Ethanol production in October was a record. For the first two months of the marketing year, ethanol use of corn is 876.83 million bushel...
Ag as Energy Future
Global trade had a record year in 2022, growing 10 percent above the 2021 level. For the U.S., the growth just was in its major bulk commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Geopolitics has China redirecting its imports to South America, and food security concerns cause barriers in many countries...
Temporary E15 Waiver Made a Difference in 2022
Ethanol blending rates increased in 2022 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), especially during this summer. In April the Biden EPA issued a one-year emergency waiver to allow year-round E15 in part to reduce retail gasoline prices in response to supply chain disruptions, t...
Another Look at the RVOs for Ethanol
On Friday 2 December, WPI broke down the proposed 2023 - 2025 required volume obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard. The rule was 692 pages long, and away from the top line summary, there are a few other bits of information worth taking a second look at and putting into context w...
Proposed RVOs: Canola Oil and Electric Vehicles are the Winners
The EPA released the proposed required volume obligations for 2023 through 2025 yesterday. Below is a summary of the proposed volumes by category. The top takeaways: In a separate proposed rule issued with the RVOs, EPA finalized an approved pathway for canola oil to be used in renewable die...
American Petroleum Institute Backs Year-Round E15
The American Petroleum Institute (AP), the association of oil drilling, refining, and natural gas producing companies, joined this week in signing a letter to Congress backing a move to grant year-round use of E15. Other signatories to the letter included the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), G...
2023 Biofuel RVOs Delayed from Tomorrow Release
The EPA’s proposed required volume obligations (RVO) for 2023 will not be released tomorrow as was previously expected under the terms of a consent decree, which originally set a date of 16 September. That was later agreed by both parties to be extended to 16 November. Those parties inclu...
King and Queen Pillage the Village
King corn is losing a battle with Queen soybeans, and this has activated the politicians for another round of support. Renewable diesel is projected to increase five-fold from 1 billion to 5 billion gallons by 2026. Almost $2.6 billion is being invested in increased soybean crush capacity to me...
Future of the RFS 2023 and Beyond
2023 marks a major shift in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). From the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act until this year, the annual required volume obligations (RVOs) under the RFS were set by statute; that changes in 2023, and so could the mix of renewable fuels – or at least t...
Proposed 2023 RVOs Coming in November
On 11 July, WPI reported that the 2023 required volume obligations (RVOs) were expected to come in mid-September; that was based on a proposed consent decree from EPA with the biofuels association Growth Energy who filed a complaint in April over EPA’s failure to promulgate a rule establi...
60 Days Until RFS Reset: Things to Watch
In 2005 Congress passed the Energy Policy Act (EPA) which created the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) statutory schedule. The 2005 EPA was amended it in 2007 with the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) which expanded those categories. The bottom line is that renewable fuels were schedule...
4th of July, Russian Ruble, and Ethanol
Despite high gas prices, the American Automobile Association (AAA) is predicting heavy travel over this long weekend for the 4th of July holiday, forecasting the total to be roughly equal to 2019, prior to COVID. A few factors are at play for increased car travel: after two years of...
EPA’s Final RVO Rule
As Matt Herrington noted on Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency released the final required volume obligations (RVO) rule which set the biofuels blending levels for 2021 (retroactively) and 2022 (six months late, and five months into the compliance year). Following is the br...
No 1970’s Analog
The U.S. Federal Reserve is trying to accomplish a so-called soft-landing of the economy back down to a low inflation, modest growth, low unemployment scenario. An increasing number of voices are signaling their skepticism that this can be accomplished. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell even concedes...
Dwindling Diesel Stocks, Increasing Demand
Add diesel fuel supplies to market anxieties over shortages and high prices. Diesel hit all-time record prices this week. Both gasoline and diesel rose sharply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but in the last two weeks, diesel prices spiked again. And the medium-term outlook remains bu...
Eight State Plan for E15 Equivalent to Adding One Large Ethanol Mill
In April, the Biden Administration’s EPA announced that it would provide a temporary waiver for year-round E15 (see WPI’s article about the immediate market reaction here, and a breakdown of the actual impact here). In the end, the waiver adds about 107 days of more demand for E15 i...
Ethanol Sobriety Check
Politics and not economics drove the White House announcement today to approve year-round E15 fuel sales under an emergency waiver of the Clean Air Act’s requirements. Ethanol makes sense as an octane booster but less so as a gasoline substitute. Blending at the E15 level is already allow...
Ag Policy Options Being Consider Regarding Russia/Ukraine Situation
As is typical when there is a crisis – from foreign policy issues, to the China trade situation, to animal disease, to COVID, and more – the market gets bombarded with rumors, leaks and speculation about potential emergency policy actions which may – or may not – be take...
Trade Policy Confusion; Energy Confusion
Trade Policy Confusion In its annual report to Congress yesterday on trade relations with China, USTR asserted that, “China has a poor record when it comes to complying with WTO rules” and suggested the Biden Administration is looking for a new strategy to address the Middle Kingdom...
E15 versus EVs
As we wrote just over one year ago, on 1 February 2021, … the general trend of fuel policy is clearly shifting the struggle from how much of the tank is filled with gasoline versus biofuel to a struggle between liquid fuel and alternatives. … Whether the petroleum and biofuels ind...
RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook
Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came after two months of steady increases based on a bright outlook for retail motor fuel use this year. Recall on 7 December, the Administration...
EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade
On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulatory agenda related to renewable fuels that it also announced in December. The 2023 RVO’s, proposed this spring, will be the...
Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs
There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues. SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage implying that the EPA will deny all pending small refinery exemption (SRE) requests. But as we wrote on 7 December, that action would be&nb...
Retro RVOs May Disappoint, but 2022 RVO Bullish Corn and Veg Oil
EPA released its 2022 proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS along with the retroactive 2021 volumes and an adjustment to the 2020 volumes. EPA is also proposing to add a 250-million-gallon “supplemental obligation” to the volumes proposed for 2022 and...
Ethanol Starting Out Marketing Year Strong; Vilsack Says RVOs Coming
USDA released the October Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was up 16 percent from October 2020, and up 15 percent from September. Ethanol production in October was a record. For the first two months of the marketing year, ethanol use of corn is 876.83 million bushel...