Recent Biofuels Analysis
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads
The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...
SREs; WASDE Livestock; COVID Politics
Reports leaked out of the Administration this week that President Trump has directed EPA to deny all of the so-called gap year small refinery exemption petitions. As we reported previously, the Department of Energy (DOE) has made recommendations on the 58 gap year petitions that were received e...
The Political/Economic Situation at Labor Day
Monday is the U.S. Labor Day holiday – it marks several things, including the nominal end of summer. With the end of summer comes a drop in gasoline demand (read ethanol) as vacation travel ends. There will be a temporary increase in meat demand for holiday barbecues, but then a seasonal...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies While Wheat Takes a Break; Feeder Cattle are Overpriced
Yesterday’s CBOT trends were reversed with the soy complex moving higher while wheat traded a steady, lackluster day. Corn and soybeans started the day weaker, but afternoon rumors of export business pushed the soy market higher. Funds are thought to have purchased some 7,500 contracts of...
Brazil Punts on Ethanol TRQ
Reports from Brazil indicate that the government is leaning toward extending the TRQ for U.S. ethanol imports for 90 days (the TRQ expired yesterday). There has been no official action yet. The expected extension is considered a compromise solution from President Bolsonaro. It would...
Biofuel Deadlines
The expiration and/or renewal date of the current TRQ for ethanol imports into Brazil is rapidly approaching; the current TRQ expires on 31 August. As we reported on 3 August, Brazil imposed a TRQ on ethanol in 2017. Last year the TRQ volume was increased from 150 million liters per quarter (60...
Ethanol Durability
Data from the first half of 2020 shows the pandemic’s impact on trade with U.S. agricultural exports down 3 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, there was a 4 percent drop in ethanol exports, which is a surprisingly small amount. While food demand changed, it mostly i...
Iowa: Biofuels Battleground
The latest polling from Iowa, per Monmouth University’s survey taken 30 July-3 August, shows President Trump with a three-point lead over Democratic nominee former Vice President Biden (48 percent to 45 percent). The margin is the same in the Senate race, with incumbent Republican Joni Er...
Market Commentary
The CBOT finished higher in the wake of a WASDE report that featured record large U.S. corn and soybean yields. The report was not quite as bearish as pre-report expectations suggested, with ending stocks figures for corn and soybeans remaining in-line with historic norms. Additional support ca...
COVID Crushed Crushing
The National Oilseed Processors Association released a study today on the impact of COVID-19 on soybean crushers and farmers. The study shows that the value of soyoil dropped $1.5 billion from January through June, a 17.5 percent decline; meal dropped $220 million, which was a 1.4 percent decli...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...
Foreign Election Influence Charges Rake in Ethanol
The House Foreign Affairs Committee is opening an investigation into whether the U.S. Ambassador to Brazil is peddling to Brazil a proposed purchase of ethanol as a boost to the Trump re-election campaign in Iowa. Citing reports in the newspaper O Globo, Representatives Eliot Engel (D-New York)...
Market Commentary
The closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas over IP theft issues (along with suspected document destruction overnight at the facility) pressured soybeans in early trade. Corn benefited from unwinding of prior long soybeans/short corn spreads and additional export sales announcements...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Climate Crisis Panel Calls for Biofuels; Climate Activist Offers Apology for Climate Scare
The U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis issued a report, intended to be a benchmark for future climate change legislation, which recommends using the RFS to transition to a low-carbon fuel standard to expand biofuel use. Meanwhile, a long-time climate activist disputes there...
Future of Petroleum and Biofuel
There are some real eyeopeners looking at the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) year-end 2019 data. The long-term outlook for gasoline/motor fuel and thus ethanol and biofuels will be impacted by the trends in the chart below. The bottom-line is that since 2005 when the RFS...
Ag Review - June 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...
Difficult Days for Markets and Everyone Else
About the only thing we can say for certain these days is that USDA/NASS will release the “final” U.S. spring planted acreage numbers and the 1 June quarterly stocks numbers next Tuesday, 30 June. What those reports will reveal is, of course, not certain today, but expectations are...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Biofuel SREs All Over Again
Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) are back in the spotlight. As we reported in January, the 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that EPA went beyond its authority in granting three different small refinery exemptions (SREs) in 2016 and 2017 in a decision on a case brought by a...
Supplemental RVO Coming
As we’ve previously reported, EPA’s 2021 annual biofuel required volume obligations (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget since 13 May undergoing review. That rule is likely to be issued soon, and after that the anticipated 20.17 billion gallon RIN equivalent vo...
Ethanol to Rebound in New Crop Year
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today, dropping its forecast for ethanol use for the third month in a row. Per today’s report, consumption this year is projected to average 804,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 815,000 barr...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads
The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...
SREs; WASDE Livestock; COVID Politics
Reports leaked out of the Administration this week that President Trump has directed EPA to deny all of the so-called gap year small refinery exemption petitions. As we reported previously, the Department of Energy (DOE) has made recommendations on the 58 gap year petitions that were received e...
The Political/Economic Situation at Labor Day
Monday is the U.S. Labor Day holiday – it marks several things, including the nominal end of summer. With the end of summer comes a drop in gasoline demand (read ethanol) as vacation travel ends. There will be a temporary increase in meat demand for holiday barbecues, but then a seasonal...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies While Wheat Takes a Break; Feeder Cattle are Overpriced
Yesterday’s CBOT trends were reversed with the soy complex moving higher while wheat traded a steady, lackluster day. Corn and soybeans started the day weaker, but afternoon rumors of export business pushed the soy market higher. Funds are thought to have purchased some 7,500 contracts of...
Brazil Punts on Ethanol TRQ
Reports from Brazil indicate that the government is leaning toward extending the TRQ for U.S. ethanol imports for 90 days (the TRQ expired yesterday). There has been no official action yet. The expected extension is considered a compromise solution from President Bolsonaro. It would...
Biofuel Deadlines
The expiration and/or renewal date of the current TRQ for ethanol imports into Brazil is rapidly approaching; the current TRQ expires on 31 August. As we reported on 3 August, Brazil imposed a TRQ on ethanol in 2017. Last year the TRQ volume was increased from 150 million liters per quarter (60...
Ethanol Durability
Data from the first half of 2020 shows the pandemic’s impact on trade with U.S. agricultural exports down 3 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, there was a 4 percent drop in ethanol exports, which is a surprisingly small amount. While food demand changed, it mostly i...
Iowa: Biofuels Battleground
The latest polling from Iowa, per Monmouth University’s survey taken 30 July-3 August, shows President Trump with a three-point lead over Democratic nominee former Vice President Biden (48 percent to 45 percent). The margin is the same in the Senate race, with incumbent Republican Joni Er...
Market Commentary
The CBOT finished higher in the wake of a WASDE report that featured record large U.S. corn and soybean yields. The report was not quite as bearish as pre-report expectations suggested, with ending stocks figures for corn and soybeans remaining in-line with historic norms. Additional support ca...
COVID Crushed Crushing
The National Oilseed Processors Association released a study today on the impact of COVID-19 on soybean crushers and farmers. The study shows that the value of soyoil dropped $1.5 billion from January through June, a 17.5 percent decline; meal dropped $220 million, which was a 1.4 percent decli...
Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation
The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day. The Wall...
Market Commentary
Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...
Foreign Election Influence Charges Rake in Ethanol
The House Foreign Affairs Committee is opening an investigation into whether the U.S. Ambassador to Brazil is peddling to Brazil a proposed purchase of ethanol as a boost to the Trump re-election campaign in Iowa. Citing reports in the newspaper O Globo, Representatives Eliot Engel (D-New York)...
Market Commentary
The closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas over IP theft issues (along with suspected document destruction overnight at the facility) pressured soybeans in early trade. Corn benefited from unwinding of prior long soybeans/short corn spreads and additional export sales announcements...
Market Commentary
Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Climate Crisis Panel Calls for Biofuels; Climate Activist Offers Apology for Climate Scare
The U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis issued a report, intended to be a benchmark for future climate change legislation, which recommends using the RFS to transition to a low-carbon fuel standard to expand biofuel use. Meanwhile, a long-time climate activist disputes there...
Future of Petroleum and Biofuel
There are some real eyeopeners looking at the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) year-end 2019 data. The long-term outlook for gasoline/motor fuel and thus ethanol and biofuels will be impacted by the trends in the chart below. The bottom-line is that since 2005 when the RFS...
Ag Review - June 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...
Difficult Days for Markets and Everyone Else
About the only thing we can say for certain these days is that USDA/NASS will release the “final” U.S. spring planted acreage numbers and the 1 June quarterly stocks numbers next Tuesday, 30 June. What those reports will reveal is, of course, not certain today, but expectations are...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Biofuel SREs All Over Again
Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) are back in the spotlight. As we reported in January, the 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that EPA went beyond its authority in granting three different small refinery exemptions (SREs) in 2016 and 2017 in a decision on a case brought by a...
Supplemental RVO Coming
As we’ve previously reported, EPA’s 2021 annual biofuel required volume obligations (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget since 13 May undergoing review. That rule is likely to be issued soon, and after that the anticipated 20.17 billion gallon RIN equivalent vo...
Ethanol to Rebound in New Crop Year
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today, dropping its forecast for ethanol use for the third month in a row. Per today’s report, consumption this year is projected to average 804,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 815,000 barr...