Recent Biofuels Analysis
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Climate Crisis Panel Calls for Biofuels; Climate Activist Offers Apology for Climate Scare
The U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis issued a report, intended to be a benchmark for future climate change legislation, which recommends using the RFS to transition to a low-carbon fuel standard to expand biofuel use. Meanwhile, a long-time climate activist disputes there...
Future of Petroleum and Biofuel
There are some real eyeopeners looking at the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) year-end 2019 data. The long-term outlook for gasoline/motor fuel and thus ethanol and biofuels will be impacted by the trends in the chart below. The bottom-line is that since 2005 when the RFS...
Ag Review - June 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...
Difficult Days for Markets and Everyone Else
About the only thing we can say for certain these days is that USDA/NASS will release the “final” U.S. spring planted acreage numbers and the 1 June quarterly stocks numbers next Tuesday, 30 June. What those reports will reveal is, of course, not certain today, but expectations are...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Biofuel SREs All Over Again
Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) are back in the spotlight. As we reported in January, the 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that EPA went beyond its authority in granting three different small refinery exemptions (SREs) in 2016 and 2017 in a decision on a case brought by a...
Supplemental RVO Coming
As we’ve previously reported, EPA’s 2021 annual biofuel required volume obligations (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget since 13 May undergoing review. That rule is likely to be issued soon, and after that the anticipated 20.17 billion gallon RIN equivalent vo...
Ethanol to Rebound in New Crop Year
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today, dropping its forecast for ethanol use for the third month in a row. Per today’s report, consumption this year is projected to average 804,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 815,000 barr...
Declining Glidepath for Ethanol
The coronavirus economic lockdown caused ethanol demand thus corn usage to plunge this year but the long-term shows a limited future for the biomass-based fuel. Using projections for all-electric and hybrid automobiles sales, Bloomberg analysts forecast a return to conventional internal combust...
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its strength on Wednesday, buoyed largely by rising Russian/Ukrainian FOB wheat prices and continued strength in the Brazilian real. Despite improving weather for Europe and the Black Sea region, the market remains concerned about Black Sea supplies, especially after Ukrainia...
April Ethanol Corn Crush; June Estimated Forecast
In a sign of the times, corn crushed for ethanol in April, during the peak of the COVID-19 lockdown, was down more than 44 percent from April 2019, while corn crushed for alcoholic beverages was up 12 percent from April 2019 according to USDA’s Grain Crushing and Co-Production report rele...
2020 Proposed Biofuel Volume Rule Teed Up
EPA’s proposed biofuel 2021 required volume obligation (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for more than two weeks (OMB received the proposal on 13 May). When it is published – assuming no changes from OMB - the expected volumes are detailed below. It i...
Ethanol at $0.45 per Gallon, … Under Federal Payments
As we noted yesterday, the $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act amends the CCC Charter Act to allow assistance to agricultural processing plants in the event of a public health emergency in order to assure the continuation of markets for agricultural...
Market Commentary
It was a technical runup today that will correct lower but there is a Chinese curveball in play. The fundamentals remain weak – look at today’s Export Sales report. And Tuesday’s WASDE will reinforce this viewpoint. But now China is an interesting side play. The Middle Kingdom...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was slow and mixed for most of Tuesday, with a slight uptick in commercial pricing interest supporting corn, soybean, and SRW wheat values. Funds are thought to have been modest net buyers of corn and soybeans. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report highlighted the raw efficiency wit...
Market Commentary
One of the hallmarks of a bear market is that buyers are patient and wait for rallies to subside, rather than chasing prices higher. That dynamic was on display this afternoon as the CBOT finished lower despite early morning gains. Demand has thinned in recent days amid the modest CBOT rally, a...
Policy Fallout from COVID-19
The Senate will return to session on Monday. Though the House will not return, debate on a fourth COVID-19 relief package will begin. This likely will be the most contentious bill; all of the basics – unemployment, business lending, food and nutrition programs, and farm payments have all...
Corn Market Challenge
We have commented before about the broad negative impact that the worldwide coronavirus pandemic is having on demand for raw materials ranging from copper and energy to renewable commodity crops such as grain, oilseeds and cotton. This situation, along with the strange decision by the Saudis an...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.145/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, up $0.2 from y...
Ag Review - April 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the economic downturn and its impact on agriculture demand, what happens as a result of the meat packing plant closures from COVID-19, the shipping problems in Latin America from th...
Lower Fuel Use Reignites RFS Fight
As of last week, according to the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), 73 of the nation’s 200 ethanol plants are idled and 70 percent are operating at reduced capacity. This would imply that 57 are still operating at normal output levels. Those plants have seen their gross margins bounce on...
Similar Transatlantic COVID-19 Impacts
According to the latest Short-term Outlook from the European Commission, the agrifood sector on the Continent has been impacted by the economic shock, lockdown measures and uncertainty in similar ways to its American counterpart. Both have suffered less than other sectors of the economy. Mainte...
Details on the New Coronavirus Food Assistance Program
On Friday as part of the daily White House COVID19 briefing, Secretary Perdue announced the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP). It will come in two parts; the first will be direct payments to producers totaling $19 billion. The second will be a $3 billion commodity purchase progra...
Market Commentary
Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...
Climate Crisis Panel Calls for Biofuels; Climate Activist Offers Apology for Climate Scare
The U.S. House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis issued a report, intended to be a benchmark for future climate change legislation, which recommends using the RFS to transition to a low-carbon fuel standard to expand biofuel use. Meanwhile, a long-time climate activist disputes there...
Future of Petroleum and Biofuel
There are some real eyeopeners looking at the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) year-end 2019 data. The long-term outlook for gasoline/motor fuel and thus ethanol and biofuels will be impacted by the trends in the chart below. The bottom-line is that since 2005 when the RFS...
Ag Review - June 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...
Difficult Days for Markets and Everyone Else
About the only thing we can say for certain these days is that USDA/NASS will release the “final” U.S. spring planted acreage numbers and the 1 June quarterly stocks numbers next Tuesday, 30 June. What those reports will reveal is, of course, not certain today, but expectations are...
Market Commentary
The CBOT was mostly lower on Wednesday with favorable U.S. weather providing little incentive to remain bullish corn or soybeans. Wheat futures were mostly lower following yesterday’s jump higher but still held technical support. U.S. equities and macro markets were sharply weaker on Wedn...
Biofuel SREs All Over Again
Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) are back in the spotlight. As we reported in January, the 10th Circuit Federal Court of Appeals in Denver ruled that EPA went beyond its authority in granting three different small refinery exemptions (SREs) in 2016 and 2017 in a decision on a case brought by a...
Supplemental RVO Coming
As we’ve previously reported, EPA’s 2021 annual biofuel required volume obligations (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget since 13 May undergoing review. That rule is likely to be issued soon, and after that the anticipated 20.17 billion gallon RIN equivalent vo...
Ethanol to Rebound in New Crop Year
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) today, dropping its forecast for ethanol use for the third month in a row. Per today’s report, consumption this year is projected to average 804,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 815,000 barr...
Declining Glidepath for Ethanol
The coronavirus economic lockdown caused ethanol demand thus corn usage to plunge this year but the long-term shows a limited future for the biomass-based fuel. Using projections for all-electric and hybrid automobiles sales, Bloomberg analysts forecast a return to conventional internal combust...
Market Commentary
The CBOT continued its strength on Wednesday, buoyed largely by rising Russian/Ukrainian FOB wheat prices and continued strength in the Brazilian real. Despite improving weather for Europe and the Black Sea region, the market remains concerned about Black Sea supplies, especially after Ukrainia...
April Ethanol Corn Crush; June Estimated Forecast
In a sign of the times, corn crushed for ethanol in April, during the peak of the COVID-19 lockdown, was down more than 44 percent from April 2019, while corn crushed for alcoholic beverages was up 12 percent from April 2019 according to USDA’s Grain Crushing and Co-Production report rele...
2020 Proposed Biofuel Volume Rule Teed Up
EPA’s proposed biofuel 2021 required volume obligation (RVO) rule has been at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for more than two weeks (OMB received the proposal on 13 May). When it is published – assuming no changes from OMB - the expected volumes are detailed below. It i...
Ethanol at $0.45 per Gallon, … Under Federal Payments
As we noted yesterday, the $3 trillion Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act amends the CCC Charter Act to allow assistance to agricultural processing plants in the event of a public health emergency in order to assure the continuation of markets for agricultural...
Market Commentary
It was a technical runup today that will correct lower but there is a Chinese curveball in play. The fundamentals remain weak – look at today’s Export Sales report. And Tuesday’s WASDE will reinforce this viewpoint. But now China is an interesting side play. The Middle Kingdom...
Market Commentary
CBOT trade was slow and mixed for most of Tuesday, with a slight uptick in commercial pricing interest supporting corn, soybean, and SRW wheat values. Funds are thought to have been modest net buyers of corn and soybeans. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report highlighted the raw efficiency wit...
Market Commentary
One of the hallmarks of a bear market is that buyers are patient and wait for rallies to subside, rather than chasing prices higher. That dynamic was on display this afternoon as the CBOT finished lower despite early morning gains. Demand has thinned in recent days amid the modest CBOT rally, a...
Policy Fallout from COVID-19
The Senate will return to session on Monday. Though the House will not return, debate on a fourth COVID-19 relief package will begin. This likely will be the most contentious bill; all of the basics – unemployment, business lending, food and nutrition programs, and farm payments have all...
Corn Market Challenge
We have commented before about the broad negative impact that the worldwide coronavirus pandemic is having on demand for raw materials ranging from copper and energy to renewable commodity crops such as grain, oilseeds and cotton. This situation, along with the strange decision by the Saudis an...
Summary of Futures
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.145/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Wheat closed at $5.165/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.375/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 20 Soymeal closed at $288.6/short ton, up $0.2 from y...
Ag Review - April 2020
WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue covers the economic downturn and its impact on agriculture demand, what happens as a result of the meat packing plant closures from COVID-19, the shipping problems in Latin America from th...
Lower Fuel Use Reignites RFS Fight
As of last week, according to the Renewable Fuel Association (RFA), 73 of the nation’s 200 ethanol plants are idled and 70 percent are operating at reduced capacity. This would imply that 57 are still operating at normal output levels. Those plants have seen their gross margins bounce on...
Similar Transatlantic COVID-19 Impacts
According to the latest Short-term Outlook from the European Commission, the agrifood sector on the Continent has been impacted by the economic shock, lockdown measures and uncertainty in similar ways to its American counterpart. Both have suffered less than other sectors of the economy. Mainte...
Details on the New Coronavirus Food Assistance Program
On Friday as part of the daily White House COVID19 briefing, Secretary Perdue announced the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP). It will come in two parts; the first will be direct payments to producers totaling $19 billion. The second will be a $3 billion commodity purchase progra...