CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Energy and Agriculture
Global agriculture produces energy, with 23 percent of ethanol produced from sugarcane, and another 7 percent produced from the molasses byproduct of processing sugarcane or sugarbeets. Increased production of ethanol has caused global sugar carryover to decline. Agriculture is also a major con...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
India’s Ethanol Conundrum and Impact on Global Markets
India is attempting to pursue its climate goals through the expansion of biofuel blending into transportation fuels, but the dynamics of the country’s agricultural systems and protectionist trade policies may stymie these efforts. The USDA recently issued an outlook that calls for India t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
Soyoil futures have seen a dramatic few years with a huge rally in 2020 sending the market to new record highs by 2022 amid the expectations for higher demand from biofuel mandates. However, since reaching mid-2022 highs soyoil has been on a long and volatile decline as global soybean and soyoi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Tracking Sustainable Aviation Fuel
A bill has been introduced in the House of Representatives that would require the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to add sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to the agency’s monthly published data to provide a benchmark on how the fuel is developing. Recall, the Biden Administrati...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds more aggressively covering shorts in the grains and oilseed sector heading into the August WASDE. The most notable buying was in corn, where funds bought back 50,000 contracts or about 17 percent of their previous short position and have now shed over 100...
E15 Summertime Waivers and Ethanol Supply and Demand
This week, EPA extended (effective as of today) the summertime waiver for E15 until 29 August. Note the summer driving season – when E15 would otherwise be prohibited – ends on 15 September. The beginning of the summer driving season when retail sale of E15 is prohibited start...
Another Extension for BTC Proposed
Representatives Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and Ann Kuster (D-New Hampshire) last month introduced the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act of 2024 that would extend the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blender credit through 2025. By way of background, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC) – which applies to both...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report shows that funds were – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline – cautiously covering shorts in corn and soybeans as they continued to edge back from their recent record-large short position in both commodities. That was as little surprising given...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, short-covering was the major theme from the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which showed that managed money funds backed off from the record-breaking positions they previously amassed. Funds bought back about 10K contracts in soybeans and about 19K in corn, but the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining massively short agricultural commodities. Perhaps the most notable item in this week’s report was the expansion of the record-large net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and their selling of nearly 30,000 soybean contracts to bring their short in that market close to the record short were the headlines from this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the buying in soyoil, where funds took back nearly half their short position in that contract amid the fears about the Indonesia-China trade war...
Biofuel Trade Issues
U.S. ethanol exports during December-March were up 42 percent over the same period a year earlier. The increased sales are not due to the price of petroleum as there is a very low correlation between the two. Instead, demand is driven by efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels, particul...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, funds were proven to be staunch net sellers last week, according to Friday’s CFTC report data. Funds were the most aggressive in corn where they sold nearly 90,000 contracts and obtained their largest short position since April and the largest early-June short since 2020. Fun...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Through 8 October, funds continued to exit their formerly massive short positions in corn and soybean futures and now hold a small fraction of that commitment. Funds covered 40 percent of their short position in soybeans and are now only short 18,000 contracts. Similarly, funds bought back half...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subtle than expected for the second straight week. Specifically, fund short-covering in the corn and wheat markets lagged expectations by a wide margin. In corn futures, funds bought back 3,700 contracts (2.6 percent) of their prior short, which...
Energy and Agriculture
Global agriculture produces energy, with 23 percent of ethanol produced from sugarcane, and another 7 percent produced from the molasses byproduct of processing sugarcane or sugarbeets. Increased production of ethanol has caused global sugar carryover to decline. Agriculture is also a major con...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds activity in the ag futures markets was more subdued last week than expected. Funds were slight net buyers in soybeans, soymeal, corn, and across the wheat complex, but the percentage shifts in their positions and overall buying volumes underperformed expectations. In the soy complex...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds continued covering shorts across the grain and oilseed complex through last Tuesday as futures trended firmer heading into the September WASDE. The most notable short covering was in wheat where funds bought back 30 percent of the CBOT position and 33 percent of their HRW short. The buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report featured the expected trends in managed money funds’ activity, but the volume of trade and the degree of change in their position was below expectations. Funds covered about 21,000 contracts of their soybean futures short last week (12.5 percent of the prior wee...
India’s Ethanol Conundrum and Impact on Global Markets
India is attempting to pursue its climate goals through the expansion of biofuel blending into transportation fuels, but the dynamics of the country’s agricultural systems and protectionist trade policies may stymie these efforts. The USDA recently issued an outlook that calls for India t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was largely in-line with expectations as it showed mild short covering by managed money traders across the soy complex and corn futures. Funds fought back about 3 percent of their corn short, which continues to hover near this year’s record low values. Funds wer...
U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook
Soyoil futures have seen a dramatic few years with a huge rally in 2020 sending the market to new record highs by 2022 amid the expectations for higher demand from biofuel mandates. However, since reaching mid-2022 highs soyoil has been on a long and volatile decline as global soybean and soyoi...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds continuing to expand their short position in soybeans and added about 8.5 percent to their net position last week. That will come as no surprise to anyone watching the markets with soybeans having reached new contract low amid a dearth of fundamental or t...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report was in line with expectations as it showed minimal net fund activity with managed money traders remaining heavily short the major ag commodities. Funds bought back just 1 percent of their short position in soybeans last week while adding an equal share to their soyoil...
Tracking Sustainable Aviation Fuel
A bill has been introduced in the House of Representatives that would require the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to add sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to the agency’s monthly published data to provide a benchmark on how the fuel is developing. Recall, the Biden Administrati...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds more aggressively covering shorts in the grains and oilseed sector heading into the August WASDE. The most notable buying was in corn, where funds bought back 50,000 contracts or about 17 percent of their previous short position and have now shed over 100...
E15 Summertime Waivers and Ethanol Supply and Demand
This week, EPA extended (effective as of today) the summertime waiver for E15 until 29 August. Note the summer driving season – when E15 would otherwise be prohibited – ends on 15 September. The beginning of the summer driving season when retail sale of E15 is prohibited start...
Another Extension for BTC Proposed
Representatives Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and Ann Kuster (D-New Hampshire) last month introduced the Biodiesel Tax Credit Extension Act of 2024 that would extend the $1.00/gallon biodiesel blender credit through 2025. By way of background, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC) – which applies to both...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Friday’s CFTC report shows that funds were – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline – cautiously covering shorts in corn and soybeans as they continued to edge back from their recent record-large short position in both commodities. That was as little surprising given...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, short-covering was the major theme from the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which showed that managed money funds backed off from the record-breaking positions they previously amassed. Funds bought back about 10K contracts in soybeans and about 19K in corn, but the buyin...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report highlights the ongoing bearish sentiment for oilseed and grain markets with managed money traders remaining massively short agricultural commodities. Perhaps the most notable item in this week’s report was the expansion of the record-large net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Funds now hold their largest short position in corn futures since at least 2015 after adding another 9,000 contracts to their holdings last week. That, and their selling of nearly 30,000 soybean contracts to bring their short in that market close to the record short were the headlines from this...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The weekly CFTC report was in-line with expectations as it showed funds remaining dedicated net sellers across oilseed complex. The only exception was the buying in soyoil, where funds took back nearly half their short position in that contract amid the fears about the Indonesia-China trade war...
Biofuel Trade Issues
U.S. ethanol exports during December-March were up 42 percent over the same period a year earlier. The increased sales are not due to the price of petroleum as there is a very low correlation between the two. Instead, demand is driven by efforts to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels, particul...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
As expected, funds were proven to be staunch net sellers last week, according to Friday’s CFTC report data. Funds were the most aggressive in corn where they sold nearly 90,000 contracts and obtained their largest short position since April and the largest early-June short since 2020. Fun...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...