Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Market Commentary: Midwest Heat Concerns Corn, Soybeans; Cattle Finally React to COF Report
After two days of exciting trade, the CBOT settled down a little on Tuesday to reflect more deeply on market fundamentals. Monday’s Crop Progress data was largely reassuring for the major row crops, which helped create more stability in futures for the day. Wheat futures dipped but did no...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trends Continue; Ukraine’s Corn in Jeopardy
The CBOT saw generally quiet, steady trade at mid-week, but many players noted firmer undertones as futures stabilize or start to recover from deeply oversold conditions. Corn and all three wheat futures markets turned higher with cautious bull spreading with the latter market seeing support fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign. Even though this year’s crop is quite modest compared to the past several seasons, the pressure on prices is significant because of...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Neutral Corn; Soybeans Fall on Demand Worries
CBOT futures had a relatively muted reaction to the USDA’s July WASDE as large U.S. and global new crop ending stocks damped much of any potential volatility. The biggest theme was larger U.S. and world wheat supplies and stocks while the outlook for corn saw far more muted changes. Soybe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower
Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade. Trading volume was expectedly light ahead of the one-day break in trading and few markets made major moves. Those that did, however, include...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 June 2024 Russia’s grain markets were quite volatile with some regions showing price recoveries. Southern Russia’s harvesting campaign is underway. Fresh demand for new crop barley has seen better price levels and as long as feed barley exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 June 2024 Last week, Russian grain markets were quite volatile. In the south, the main export-oriented areas saw grain prices drop following the global bearish trend and Russia’s most recent failure on the GASC tender in Egypt. Moreover, Russia’s s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 June 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable and slightly bullish against solid demand for Russian wheat globally and recently appreciated markets due to fears of lower production caused by adverse spring weather. All Russian ministries, including the Ministr...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 May 2024 Russia remains the focus of many world grain analysts as weather factors in Russia and Ukraine make global markets nervous and bullish. Futures markets reacted almost instantaneously while Russian markets only now realize the situation and all grains...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Move to Trading Range Lows; Wheat Falls on Black Sea Rain
Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting progress, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and rains forecast for the Black Sea region this week. Corn and soybeans primarily saw their weakness de...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 May 2024 Crop Outlook Russian weather, particularly spring frosts, became an important factor in estimating the potential of this season’s crop. Despite the warnings from government agencies not to publish forecasts, several Russian analysts still announ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Bulls Remain Relentless; U.S. Farmers Make Strong Planting Progress
Overnight volume was strong at the CBOT with traders eager to get back to work following a weekend of reductions in the Black Sea crop forecast(s). Several private firms lowered their Russian wheat crop estimates late Friday or over the weekend, which sent EU futures higher on Monday and create...
Market Commentary: Weather Continues to Drive CBOT Strength; Meat Stocks Tighten Further
Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South America over the coming three-day holiday weekend. Weather concerns for planting the 2024 U.S. crops are lingering despite strong progress to da...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Corn Still Strong; Soy Complex Waivers
Corn traded mostly higher all session and has gained value in three of the past four days. The soy complex was higher in the overnight session and opened that way this morning, but it didn’t last long and closed in the red. The July soybean contract has had a mixed week, but it is still u...
Sunflower on Edge
Global sunflower seed production is only about one-seventh as large as soybean output, but it has surprisingly continued on a similar trend in supply despite the war between the two largest producers, Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s sunflower seed production faltered in 2022 at the outset o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 May 2024 Crop Outlook As of mid-May, Russia farmers planted 24.8 Mha of spring crops which is 44.5 percent of the forecast. This is 4.6 Mha ahead of last year’s planting pace. Grains and pulses were planted over 12.98 Mha which is 43.2 percent of the for...
Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans
Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 26 July)
Ocean Freight Comments - 26 July 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk markets saw another week of fairly dull trade with demand becoming more balanced against vessel availability. There has been fresh business from South America’s East Coast as well as the Black Sea that have helped take some...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 July 2024 Russia started harvesting several weeks earlier this season due to hot weather conditions and early maturity of early grains. As of 12 July, Russian farmers harvested 32 MMT of grains from 8.4 Mha versus only 12.2 MMT from 3.3 Mha a year ago. The ave...
Market Commentary: Midwest Heat Concerns Corn, Soybeans; Cattle Finally React to COF Report
After two days of exciting trade, the CBOT settled down a little on Tuesday to reflect more deeply on market fundamentals. Monday’s Crop Progress data was largely reassuring for the major row crops, which helped create more stability in futures for the day. Wheat futures dipped but did no...
Summary of Recent Factors Driving Commodity Price Action
Recently, a WPI client asked if we could summarize the major factors that have driven commodity markets over the past several months. The goal is to succinctly describe how markets have ended up in their current state and examine the next major trend(s) that are likely to develop. This report,...
Market Commentary: Firmer Trends Continue; Ukraine’s Corn in Jeopardy
The CBOT saw generally quiet, steady trade at mid-week, but many players noted firmer undertones as futures stabilize or start to recover from deeply oversold conditions. Corn and all three wheat futures markets turned higher with cautious bull spreading with the latter market seeing support fr...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish which is tradition at the peak of grain harvesting campaign. Even though this year’s crop is quite modest compared to the past several seasons, the pressure on prices is significant because of...
Market Commentary: WASDE Bearish Wheat, Neutral Corn; Soybeans Fall on Demand Worries
CBOT futures had a relatively muted reaction to the USDA’s July WASDE as large U.S. and global new crop ending stocks damped much of any potential volatility. The biggest theme was larger U.S. and world wheat supplies and stocks while the outlook for corn saw far more muted changes. Soybe...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 2–5 July 2024 Russian grain markets remained unmistakably bearish under pressure of high carryover and optimistic new crop forecasts. New crop is already arriving at inland elevators and even port terminals. Feed wheat lost $10/MT on a week which is a good indicator...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Extends Rally while Corn, Wheat Move Lower
Pre-holiday trade at the CBOT featured the continuation of the soyoil and broader soy complex rally while corn and wheat sagged lower in uninspired trade. Trading volume was expectedly light ahead of the one-day break in trading and few markets made major moves. Those that did, however, include...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 24–28 June 2024 Russian grain markets are moving slowly but steadily to the end of the current season anticipating new crop pressures and global trends. Overall, the market was bearish last week, but a bigger bear seems to be ahead as the new season is only starting...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 17–21 June 2024 Russia’s grain markets were quite volatile with some regions showing price recoveries. Southern Russia’s harvesting campaign is underway. Fresh demand for new crop barley has seen better price levels and as long as feed barley exports are...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10–14 June 2024 Last week, Russian grain markets were quite volatile. In the south, the main export-oriented areas saw grain prices drop following the global bearish trend and Russia’s most recent failure on the GASC tender in Egypt. Moreover, Russia’s s...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 3–7 June 2024 Russian grain markets remained stable and slightly bullish against solid demand for Russian wheat globally and recently appreciated markets due to fears of lower production caused by adverse spring weather. All Russian ministries, including the Ministr...
Market Commentary: Thursday’s Dead Cat Bounce
Thursday’s few flashes of green turned out to be an anomaly instead of a turning point. On Friday the trade returned to selling off grains and oilseeds. It became the eighth consecutive session lower for SRW and HRS, and the eighth session lower in the past nine for corn and soybeans. Goo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27–31 May 2024 Russia remains the focus of many world grain analysts as weather factors in Russia and Ukraine make global markets nervous and bullish. Futures markets reacted almost instantaneously while Russian markets only now realize the situation and all grains...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Move to Trading Range Lows; Wheat Falls on Black Sea Rain
Ag commodity futures were almost uniformly lower on Wednesday with pressure stemming from multiple sources, including better-than-expected U.S. planting progress, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and rains forecast for the Black Sea region this week. Corn and soybeans primarily saw their weakness de...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 May 2024 Crop Outlook Russian weather, particularly spring frosts, became an important factor in estimating the potential of this season’s crop. Despite the warnings from government agencies not to publish forecasts, several Russian analysts still announ...
Market Commentary: Wheat Bulls Remain Relentless; U.S. Farmers Make Strong Planting Progress
Overnight volume was strong at the CBOT with traders eager to get back to work following a weekend of reductions in the Black Sea crop forecast(s). Several private firms lowered their Russian wheat crop estimates late Friday or over the weekend, which sent EU futures higher on Monday and create...
Market Commentary: Weather Continues to Drive CBOT Strength; Meat Stocks Tighten Further
Ag commodity futures were firmer to end the week with traders looking ahead to challenging weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere and South America over the coming three-day holiday weekend. Weather concerns for planting the 2024 U.S. crops are lingering despite strong progress to da...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Corn Still Strong; Soy Complex Waivers
Corn traded mostly higher all session and has gained value in three of the past four days. The soy complex was higher in the overnight session and opened that way this morning, but it didn’t last long and closed in the red. The July soybean contract has had a mixed week, but it is still u...
Sunflower on Edge
Global sunflower seed production is only about one-seventh as large as soybean output, but it has surprisingly continued on a similar trend in supply despite the war between the two largest producers, Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s sunflower seed production faltered in 2022 at the outset o...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 May 2024 Crop Outlook As of mid-May, Russia farmers planted 24.8 Mha of spring crops which is 44.5 percent of the forecast. This is 4.6 Mha ahead of last year’s planting pace. Grains and pulses were planted over 12.98 Mha which is 43.2 percent of the for...
Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans
Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...