World Perspectives

Recent Black Sea Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 28 February)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 February 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets and traders returned from their seasonal quiet period during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday and found a flurry of buying orders that supported markets and rates. The Capesize sector led the rally with the Panamax s...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 28 February)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 February 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets and traders returned from their seasonal quiet period during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday and found a flurry of buying orders that supported markets and rates. The Capesize sector led the rally with the Panamax s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ukraine's Limited Choices

Much like U.S. farmers, Ukrainian producers prefer to plant the most profitable crops. This is especially true when considering Ukraine’s farmers are reportedly losing $50/MT on corn. The preference is to grow soybeans, and output of the oilseed increased nearly 27 percent in 2023. Howeve...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bearish Long-Term Projections, Outlook Expectations Sink Grain Markets

The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with USDA issuing a bearish long-term outlook late Tuesday and traders looking for bearish numbers from the agency later this week. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will be in Washington, D.C. this Thursday and Friday and will offer the agency’s fir...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The export market has been driving this market for a while and intervention purchases did not save Russian farmers from the global bear. Moreover...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harvested from occupied territories. During a recent press conference, he mentioned that during 2023 Russia produced 150 MMT in bunker weight and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 January 2024 After the January holidays, the Russian market is being revised step-by-step. The volume of trade is not so impressive but against all odds and large stocks the market saw some bullish sentiments especially with rye and peas. Peas dramatically appr...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

2023: A Look Back in Humor

Note, the following is an attempt to summarize 2023’s major developments in ag markets and U.S. and world politics while injecting humor. Obviously, not everything is 100% factually “correct” and we leave it to you to determine fact from (hopefully) humorous fiction.  Jan...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 December 2023 As of late December, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts grain production at 142 MMT. A week ago, the Russian Statistics Agency had already reported 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Done...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 December 2023 As of mid-December, the Russian Statistics Agency reports 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. The wheat crop alone accounted for 92.8 MMT which is the sec...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs like seeds, fertilizers, chemicals, spare parts, and western equipment. In an effort to help, the government provided subsidies to farmers a...

wheat

Changes in the Wheat Market

Decades ago, when wheat was king, WPI had many analysts keenly interested in wheat. Since then, corn became king and now soybeans jockey for top honors. Wheat is still important and filled with changing dynamics, none more notable than the rise of Black Sea wheat, and Russia in particular. Russ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT a year ago. The information from the Ministry is delayed and is usually adjusted several times. Wheat was reportedly harvested from 29.1 Mha...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27 November–1 December 2023 Russian markets finally broke the bear which has been present almost since the beginning of the new season. High quality milling wheat is unmistakably bullish; the main factor is a lower share of high-quality milling wheat even though whe...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 November 2023  Russian markets remained quite volatile, however, the Asian area finally stabilized because Kazakhstan seems to have replenished their stocks for the moment. The Siberian market is stable and although prices for 3rd grade milling wheat are...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia has shipped two vessels of wheat to Somalia and Burkina Faso as part of the country’s promise to send free grain to Africa.  China purchased 66 KMT of feed corn from Ukraine at $248/MT C&F for December shipment.  Through 24 November, Ukraine has ex...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 November 2023  The Russian market remained quite volatile with European Russia bearish and the Asian region bullish thanks to solid demand from Kazakhstan. However, the gap between the European and Asian parts of the country is getting smaller and smaller...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 19–23 February 2024 As expected, the Russian grain market remained stable and slightly bearish. Export demand will do the trick in the future unless there are major developments with the Russian domestic currency market or export duties. The government continues tax...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 28 February)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 February 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets and traders returned from their seasonal quiet period during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday and found a flurry of buying orders that supported markets and rates. The Capesize sector led the rally with the Panamax s...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 28 February)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 February 2024 By Matt Herrington Freight markets and traders returned from their seasonal quiet period during the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday and found a flurry of buying orders that supported markets and rates. The Capesize sector led the rally with the Panamax s...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 February 2024 The global bear market was shocking but it did not have an equal effect on the Russian grain market, which is still living under previously signed contracts, tenders, etc. However, huge stocks along with a global bearish trend and the upcoming pl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ukraine's Limited Choices

Much like U.S. farmers, Ukrainian producers prefer to plant the most profitable crops. This is especially true when considering Ukraine’s farmers are reportedly losing $50/MT on corn. The preference is to grow soybeans, and output of the oilseed increased nearly 27 percent in 2023. Howeve...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bearish Long-Term Projections, Outlook Expectations Sink Grain Markets

The CBOT was sharply lower at mid-week with USDA issuing a bearish long-term outlook late Tuesday and traders looking for bearish numbers from the agency later this week. The USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum will be in Washington, D.C. this Thursday and Friday and will offer the agency’s fir...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 2–9 February 2024 The market remained bearish following the global bearish trend, huge stocks, and growing export duties. It’s not clear why the government would continue raising export duties in a bearish export market. The case with the feed barley duty make...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22–26 January 2024 The grain market could not withstand the pressure from stocks which remain high at this time of year. The export market has been driving this market for a while and intervention purchases did not save Russian farmers from the global bear. Moreover...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 January 2024 For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Putin mentioned grains grown and harvested from occupied territories. During a recent press conference, he mentioned that during 2023 Russia produced 150 MMT in bunker weight and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 January 2024 After the January holidays, the Russian market is being revised step-by-step. The volume of trade is not so impressive but against all odds and large stocks the market saw some bullish sentiments especially with rye and peas. Peas dramatically appr...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

2023: A Look Back in Humor

Note, the following is an attempt to summarize 2023’s major developments in ag markets and U.S. and world politics while injecting humor. Obviously, not everything is 100% factually “correct” and we leave it to you to determine fact from (hopefully) humorous fiction.  Jan...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 December 2023 As of late December, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts grain production at 142 MMT. A week ago, the Russian Statistics Agency had already reported 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Done...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18–22 December 2023 As of mid-December, the Russian Statistics Agency reports 142.6 MMT of grains harvested in standard weight excluding occupied territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. The wheat crop alone accounted for 92.8 MMT which is the sec...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11–15 December 2023 Russian agriculture has had a difficult year with global sanctions in place creating problems with inputs like seeds, fertilizers, chemicals, spare parts, and western equipment. In an effort to help, the government provided subsidies to farmers a...

wheat

Changes in the Wheat Market

Decades ago, when wheat was king, WPI had many analysts keenly interested in wheat. Since then, corn became king and now soybeans jockey for top honors. Wheat is still important and filled with changing dynamics, none more notable than the rise of Black Sea wheat, and Russia in particular. Russ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 December 2023 As of 8 December, the Russian government reports the wheat crop at 95 MMT in bunker weight versus 105.6 MMT a year ago. The information from the Ministry is delayed and is usually adjusted several times. Wheat was reportedly harvested from 29.1 Mha...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27 November–1 December 2023 Russian markets finally broke the bear which has been present almost since the beginning of the new season. High quality milling wheat is unmistakably bullish; the main factor is a lower share of high-quality milling wheat even though whe...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20–24 November 2023  Russian markets remained quite volatile, however, the Asian area finally stabilized because Kazakhstan seems to have replenished their stocks for the moment. The Siberian market is stable and although prices for 3rd grade milling wheat are...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia has shipped two vessels of wheat to Somalia and Burkina Faso as part of the country’s promise to send free grain to Africa.  China purchased 66 KMT of feed corn from Ukraine at $248/MT C&F for December shipment.  Through 24 November, Ukraine has ex...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13–17 November 2023  The Russian market remained quite volatile with European Russia bearish and the Asian region bullish thanks to solid demand from Kazakhstan. However, the gap between the European and Asian parts of the country is getting smaller and smaller...

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