World Perspectives

Recent Black Sea Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Thoughts from the August WASDE

Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

 USDA forecasts U.S. corn production at 15.3 billion bushels, up 278 million from the July projection.  The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 181.8 bushels per acre, is 3.3 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection.  Today&rsqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 August 2020 Wheat prices on the domestic Russian market moved in different directions. The changes were moderate or insignificant. Corn prices slightly decreased. Feed barley prices mainly decreased. Meanwhile on the export market, milling wheat average 2020 yiel...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)

Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 July 2020 Wheat prices grew in the European part of the domestic Russian market and decreased in the Ural regions and Siberia. Milling rye prices decreased. Corn prices kept growing. Feed barley prices moved in different directions. Meanwhile, on the export market m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU Commission’s MARS unit cut its forecast of the EU soft wheat yield to 5.54 MT/ha, down from earlier estimates of 5.6 MT/ha. The agency increased its yield expectations for most other crops, however, including corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds.    Thi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 July 2020 Wheat prices on the domestic market hit bottom and started growing in some regions. Meanwhile, on the export market milling wheat average 2020 yield price remained at $210/MT FOB Black Sea. The average purchase price didn’t change either and amounted...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened lower overnight as USDA’s surprise increase in the good/excellent ratings for corn and soybeans pressured the market. Wheat followed corn lower, pressured by spillover selling as well as its own good harvest statistics. The increase in crop conditions ratings seemed to spa...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  European and Black Sea markets are seemingly solely focused on the advancing wheat harvest as well as the early start of rapeseed/summer crop harvests. For most countries, wheat harvest is half-finished or better and yields have reflected earlier expectations. The only real...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 July 2020 Harvest progressed so most of the regions quoted prices for 2020 grain. As a result the general price development on the domestic market was negative, except for corn prices that slightly grew. Meanwhile on the export market, milling wheat average 2020 yie...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The European and Black Sea wheat and summer crop markets are largely in wait-and-see mode regarding 2020 Northern Hemisphere supplies. Certainly, news of smaller Russian wheat crops and reductions to the EU wheat harvest have supported prices recently, but rallies have been...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Summer of Our Discontent

It was not supposed to be this way. Our collective efforts at social distancing, washing hands, wearing face masks and self-quarantining when necessary were supposed to have kept COVID-19 at bay and allowed a re-opening of the U.S. economy that had fallen into a deep recession. In fact, Preside...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

CBOT markets opened as called with corn and wheat working lower to test support. SRW wheat futures quickly turned higher, however, as the bullish pennant formation WPI noted in yesterday’s Market Commentary proved correct. The wheat markets exploded higher by mid-day as buy-stops were tri...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 July 2020 Harvesting started in more regions, so the prices were mainly quoted for 2020 grain, and the general price development on the domestic market was negative (except for corn prices that slightly grew). Meanwhile, on the export market, milling wheat average 20...

feed-grains livestock soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary

The overnight session looked like a Turnaround Tuesday would develop, but despite news of the fourth largest daily corn sale on record, the CBOT remained under pressure. Corn futures continued to edge lower while soybeans found slight support from bull spreading against corn and strength in soy...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with Friday’s WASDE confirming that, without a weather event in the Northern Hemisphere this summer, corn and soybean supplies will be ample. Additionally, good odds for precipitation across the U.S. Corn Belt as corn approaches peak pollination...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. corn is for lower ending stocks.  For 2020/21, corn production is forecast 995 million bushels lower based on reduced planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage report.  The national average corn yield is unchanged at 178.5 bushels per a...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

wheat

Wheat Market Tightening

The wheat market is tightening as production cuts are hitting France, Russia and Ukraine, plus there has been an increase in tenders. Exports by France are expected to be 7.75 MMT, a 43 percent reduction from 2019/20. Meanwhile, Russia's IKAR reduced its estimate for the Russian wheat crop by 1...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 June-3 July 2020 Harvesting was in progress and in the South and Volga Valley regions prices decreased. Yet, the decrease is not significant as the average yield so far has been lower than in 2019. For export market milling wheat, average 2020 yield price decreased to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The June shift from dry to wet weather patterns for Europe’s crop-growing regions have substantially boosted crop conditions. At the start of June, USDA’s NDVI mapping showed most of the French, German, UK, and western Black Sea crops in below-average condition...

livestock

Livestock Round Up

The Livestock and Meat trade data will be released Monday after the holiday weekend; it will likely show exports way down in May reflecting the COVID-19 impact on slaughter and offsetting the high profile gains made in April, especially in pork shipments to China. With the COVID shutdown in pla...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Thoughts from the August WASDE

Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

 USDA forecasts U.S. corn production at 15.3 billion bushels, up 278 million from the July projection.  The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 181.8 bushels per acre, is 3.3 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection.  Today&rsqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 August 2020 Wheat prices on the domestic Russian market moved in different directions. The changes were moderate or insignificant. Corn prices slightly decreased. Feed barley prices mainly decreased. Meanwhile on the export market, milling wheat average 2020 yiel...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)

Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 July 2020 Wheat prices grew in the European part of the domestic Russian market and decreased in the Ural regions and Siberia. Milling rye prices decreased. Corn prices kept growing. Feed barley prices moved in different directions. Meanwhile, on the export market m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU Commission’s MARS unit cut its forecast of the EU soft wheat yield to 5.54 MT/ha, down from earlier estimates of 5.6 MT/ha. The agency increased its yield expectations for most other crops, however, including corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds.    Thi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 July 2020 Wheat prices on the domestic market hit bottom and started growing in some regions. Meanwhile, on the export market milling wheat average 2020 yield price remained at $210/MT FOB Black Sea. The average purchase price didn’t change either and amounted...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened lower overnight as USDA’s surprise increase in the good/excellent ratings for corn and soybeans pressured the market. Wheat followed corn lower, pressured by spillover selling as well as its own good harvest statistics. The increase in crop conditions ratings seemed to spa...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  European and Black Sea markets are seemingly solely focused on the advancing wheat harvest as well as the early start of rapeseed/summer crop harvests. For most countries, wheat harvest is half-finished or better and yields have reflected earlier expectations. The only real...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 July 2020 Harvest progressed so most of the regions quoted prices for 2020 grain. As a result the general price development on the domestic market was negative, except for corn prices that slightly grew. Meanwhile on the export market, milling wheat average 2020 yie...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The European and Black Sea wheat and summer crop markets are largely in wait-and-see mode regarding 2020 Northern Hemisphere supplies. Certainly, news of smaller Russian wheat crops and reductions to the EU wheat harvest have supported prices recently, but rallies have been...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Summer of Our Discontent

It was not supposed to be this way. Our collective efforts at social distancing, washing hands, wearing face masks and self-quarantining when necessary were supposed to have kept COVID-19 at bay and allowed a re-opening of the U.S. economy that had fallen into a deep recession. In fact, Preside...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

CBOT markets opened as called with corn and wheat working lower to test support. SRW wheat futures quickly turned higher, however, as the bullish pennant formation WPI noted in yesterday’s Market Commentary proved correct. The wheat markets exploded higher by mid-day as buy-stops were tri...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 July 2020 Harvesting started in more regions, so the prices were mainly quoted for 2020 grain, and the general price development on the domestic market was negative (except for corn prices that slightly grew). Meanwhile, on the export market, milling wheat average 20...

feed-grains livestock soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary

The overnight session looked like a Turnaround Tuesday would develop, but despite news of the fourth largest daily corn sale on record, the CBOT remained under pressure. Corn futures continued to edge lower while soybeans found slight support from bull spreading against corn and strength in soy...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with Friday’s WASDE confirming that, without a weather event in the Northern Hemisphere this summer, corn and soybean supplies will be ample. Additionally, good odds for precipitation across the U.S. Corn Belt as corn approaches peak pollination...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. corn is for lower ending stocks.  For 2020/21, corn production is forecast 995 million bushels lower based on reduced planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage report.  The national average corn yield is unchanged at 178.5 bushels per a...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

wheat

Wheat Market Tightening

The wheat market is tightening as production cuts are hitting France, Russia and Ukraine, plus there has been an increase in tenders. Exports by France are expected to be 7.75 MMT, a 43 percent reduction from 2019/20. Meanwhile, Russia's IKAR reduced its estimate for the Russian wheat crop by 1...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 June-3 July 2020 Harvesting was in progress and in the South and Volga Valley regions prices decreased. Yet, the decrease is not significant as the average yield so far has been lower than in 2019. For export market milling wheat, average 2020 yield price decreased to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The June shift from dry to wet weather patterns for Europe’s crop-growing regions have substantially boosted crop conditions. At the start of June, USDA’s NDVI mapping showed most of the French, German, UK, and western Black Sea crops in below-average condition...

livestock

Livestock Round Up

The Livestock and Meat trade data will be released Monday after the holiday weekend; it will likely show exports way down in May reflecting the COVID-19 impact on slaughter and offsetting the high profile gains made in April, especially in pork shipments to China. With the COVID shutdown in pla...

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