Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
Declining Ukrainian Market Share
Ukraine has successfully sent a few ships filled with grain out the Black Sea the past few weeks, but it is unlikely to transit the 33 MMT achieved under the now defunct grain corridor agreement with Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is attacking Ukraine’s sea and river ports including hammering...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets continued to rally based on follow through demand from the East Coast of South America, problematic vessel congestion in Brazil, and optimism among FFA paper traders regarding the beginning of the Nor...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 21 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: Dry-bulk markets c...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises Despite Coming Harvest Pressure
The CBOT found a bit of strength for the day with corn seeing the most bullish action on expectations of a smaller 2023/24 Brazilian crop. Corn posted its second straight higher close with mild fund participation and the strength spilled over into wheat and soybeans to a small degree. Fresh new...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 11–15 September 2023 Russian grain markets plummeted on reports of another large crop and huge carryover which is not traditional for this time of the season. We are talking about 140 MMT of new crop plus around 27 MMT of old crop (carryover). Russia started th...
Market Commentary: Lower Through October
The CBOT started the new week on a bearish note with last week’s WASDE and fund selling as reported in the CFTC report creating pressure. Corn has the most bearish fundamentals right now, so it’s understandable that the market dropped to a new low for the year and broke technical su...
Market Commentary: Next Day Hangover
Corn and soybeans staged reversals to yesterday’s WASDE-driven declines while wheat continued tacking higher on the report’s forecasted decline in global supplies. The price gains in feed supplies may have spooked livestock as those contracts traded lower. Also lurking in the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 September 2023 Russian grain markets remained bearish, however, export volumes of all agricultural commodities from Russia remained stable. Russia has no navigation restrictions across the Black Sea. Going through Bosporus or any other channel, Russia can...
WASDE Corn
USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged. The result is ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel. Foreig...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 August–1 September 2023 Russian grain markets finally signaled that the new crop is calling the shots on the market. Southern areas went bearish because of ample supply and slow logistics while inland trading is trying to find its bottom price as farmers ar...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Ratings Hit Five-Year Lows; Wheat Beats a Bearish Drum
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened week in a lackluster manner with the soy complex sinking lower, largely on weaker palm oil values and soymeal deliveries, while wheat and corn futures scratched out small gains. Trading volume was light for the day and the last day of the most recent heatw...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under pressure from a good crop, however, export duties decreased to allow at least some bullish movement on the domestic market. The global prices are relatively stable, and exporters cannot afford to offer a m...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Adjust to New Paradigm; Feeder Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Nears Support
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with soybeans surging early on the hot, dry conditions last week and forecast for this week, with an added boost from a sub-50 BPA ProFarmer yield estimate. Corn followed soybeans higher but ran into resistance just shy of $5 that stalled the day’s pro...
Market Commentary: Lots of Mixed Messages
You are reading this report to better understand the issue of risk. This might make you unusual since the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center reports that respondents to its surveys show only 35 percent answer questions correctly about the topic. Then again, it is a tricky subject. Even...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Heat, Russian Attacks
The CBOT was higher to start the day after Russia attacked more Ukrainian export and grain infrastructure in Odesa and the country’s Danube River ports. That rally was extended during the day session as the blistering hot weather over the U.S. Midwest prompted traders to add back weather...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under the pressure of a good crop, higher freight rates, and ever-growing export duties. Since most of the pricing in country is based on the export marketplace in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, some regions are af...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Ukraine Starts Export Corridor; Soy Rallies on Scorching Forecast
The U.S. weather was just as hot and dry over the weekend as expected and this week’s outlook is unchanged with scorching temperatures predicted for most of the Midwest and Plains. You wouldn’t know it from futures’ price action on Monday, however, as corn and wheat futures pl...
Market Commentary: Midwest and CBOT Heat Up; Hog Rally Eases Discount; Cattle Supplies Tighten
The CBOT was almost uniformly higher to end the week as crop markets are increasingly concerned about the coming two-week weather forecast. The next week will be extremely hot and dry for the Midwest and corn and soybean yields are likely to take a hit. Just how hard-hit they will be remains th...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms on Russian Attacks, Extreme Midwest Temps
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday with another Russian attack on Ukraine’s Danube River ports and a hot, dry weather forecast for the Midwest offering support. Corn, soybeans, and KCBT wheat bounced higher off technical support while the CBOT wheat market traded either side of unchanged...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 August 2023 The Russian grain market was not following one clear trend. Partly because of the geographical spread of the country, but global factors also effect Russian markets and especially the latest developments in the Black Sea. The market is very se...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Focus on Weather, Carryout; Wheat Rebounds from Major Support
The CBOT found a bit of strength following a generally bearish August WASDE with soybeans playing the role of upside leader on a newly hot, dry two-week Midwest forecast. Moreover, the WASDE pointed to tight U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 and traders seemed to focus a bit more on that t...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 18–22 September 2023 The Russian bear continued marching over all grains in European Russia without exception. The Asian part of Russia was more stable but sooner or later the bear will reach that part of the country as well as the domestic crop is huge and far...
Market Commentary: Paris Wheat Lifts CBOT; RINs Tank Soyoil (Again); Mexico Buys 1.6 MMT of Corn
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week, though fundamental reasons for the rally were few. Russia again attacked Ukraine’s Odesa port infrastructure overnight, which helped Paris wheat futures edge higher and bring support to the U.S. markets. CBOT corn and soybeans were stronger wi...
Declining Ukrainian Market Share
Ukraine has successfully sent a few ships filled with grain out the Black Sea the past few weeks, but it is unlikely to transit the 33 MMT achieved under the now defunct grain corridor agreement with Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is attacking Ukraine’s sea and river ports including hammering...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 21 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 21 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk markets continued to rally based on follow through demand from the East Coast of South America, problematic vessel congestion in Brazil, and optimism among FFA paper traders regarding the beginning of the Nor...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 21 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 21 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: Dry-bulk markets c...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rises Despite Coming Harvest Pressure
The CBOT found a bit of strength for the day with corn seeing the most bullish action on expectations of a smaller 2023/24 Brazilian crop. Corn posted its second straight higher close with mild fund participation and the strength spilled over into wheat and soybeans to a small degree. Fresh new...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets 11–15 September 2023 Russian grain markets plummeted on reports of another large crop and huge carryover which is not traditional for this time of the season. We are talking about 140 MMT of new crop plus around 27 MMT of old crop (carryover). Russia started th...
Market Commentary: Lower Through October
The CBOT started the new week on a bearish note with last week’s WASDE and fund selling as reported in the CFTC report creating pressure. Corn has the most bearish fundamentals right now, so it’s understandable that the market dropped to a new low for the year and broke technical su...
Market Commentary: Next Day Hangover
Corn and soybeans staged reversals to yesterday’s WASDE-driven declines while wheat continued tacking higher on the report’s forecasted decline in global supplies. The price gains in feed supplies may have spooked livestock as those contracts traded lower. Also lurking in the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 September 2023 Russian grain markets remained bearish, however, export volumes of all agricultural commodities from Russia remained stable. Russia has no navigation restrictions across the Black Sea. Going through Bosporus or any other channel, Russia can...
WASDE Corn
USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged. The result is ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel. Foreig...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 August–1 September 2023 Russian grain markets finally signaled that the new crop is calling the shots on the market. Southern areas went bearish because of ample supply and slow logistics while inland trading is trying to find its bottom price as farmers ar...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Ratings Hit Five-Year Lows; Wheat Beats a Bearish Drum
The CBOT started the holiday-shortened week in a lackluster manner with the soy complex sinking lower, largely on weaker palm oil values and soymeal deliveries, while wheat and corn futures scratched out small gains. Trading volume was light for the day and the last day of the most recent heatw...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under pressure from a good crop, however, export duties decreased to allow at least some bullish movement on the domestic market. The global prices are relatively stable, and exporters cannot afford to offer a m...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Adjust to New Paradigm; Feeder Cattle Score New Highs; Wheat Nears Support
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with soybeans surging early on the hot, dry conditions last week and forecast for this week, with an added boost from a sub-50 BPA ProFarmer yield estimate. Corn followed soybeans higher but ran into resistance just shy of $5 that stalled the day’s pro...
Market Commentary: Lots of Mixed Messages
You are reading this report to better understand the issue of risk. This might make you unusual since the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center reports that respondents to its surveys show only 35 percent answer questions correctly about the topic. Then again, it is a tricky subject. Even...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Heat, Russian Attacks
The CBOT was higher to start the day after Russia attacked more Ukrainian export and grain infrastructure in Odesa and the country’s Danube River ports. That rally was extended during the day session as the blistering hot weather over the U.S. Midwest prompted traders to add back weather...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 14–18 August 2023 Russian grain markets remained under the pressure of a good crop, higher freight rates, and ever-growing export duties. Since most of the pricing in country is based on the export marketplace in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, some regions are af...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as Ukraine Starts Export Corridor; Soy Rallies on Scorching Forecast
The U.S. weather was just as hot and dry over the weekend as expected and this week’s outlook is unchanged with scorching temperatures predicted for most of the Midwest and Plains. You wouldn’t know it from futures’ price action on Monday, however, as corn and wheat futures pl...
Market Commentary: Midwest and CBOT Heat Up; Hog Rally Eases Discount; Cattle Supplies Tighten
The CBOT was almost uniformly higher to end the week as crop markets are increasingly concerned about the coming two-week weather forecast. The next week will be extremely hot and dry for the Midwest and corn and soybean yields are likely to take a hit. Just how hard-hit they will be remains th...
Market Commentary: CBOT Firms on Russian Attacks, Extreme Midwest Temps
The CBOT turned higher on Wednesday with another Russian attack on Ukraine’s Danube River ports and a hot, dry weather forecast for the Midwest offering support. Corn, soybeans, and KCBT wheat bounced higher off technical support while the CBOT wheat market traded either side of unchanged...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 August 2023 The Russian grain market was not following one clear trend. Partly because of the geographical spread of the country, but global factors also effect Russian markets and especially the latest developments in the Black Sea. The market is very se...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Focus on Weather, Carryout; Wheat Rebounds from Major Support
The CBOT found a bit of strength following a generally bearish August WASDE with soybeans playing the role of upside leader on a newly hot, dry two-week Midwest forecast. Moreover, the WASDE pointed to tight U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 and traders seemed to focus a bit more on that t...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...