FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023 The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory terms. Ukraine announced a 120-day extension while Russian officials claim the extension is only valid for another 60 days. The Russian sid...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there seems to be no agreement on the time period – 60 or 120 days. Even the UN announcement of the extension did not mention the time period...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Sinks Wheat; Markets Brace for Wednesday Fed Meeting
The CBOT started the week with some risk-off trade after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal to extend the Black Sea export corridor agreement over the weekend. The two countries are still arguing over the details of the agreement, but the major takeaway was that Ukraine can still ship grain in r...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Lack of Export Deal; Soybeans Fall Despite 25-MMT Argy Crop Prediction
Corn was the upside leader overnight with heavy volume kicking off Friday’s trade date. Three days of export sales to China plus rumors (that USDA confirmed later in the morning) of a fourth set of sales were bullish and helped put funds and commercials in a buying mood. Wheat futures con...
Market Commentary: Livestock Markets Collapse on Economic Risks; Grains Grind Higher
Bank liquidity issues and collapses remain at the forefront of the market’s collective mind with investors increasingly looking for safe-haven assets and “risk off” trades. That has exerted some influence on the ag markets, with livestock futures being the primary recipient of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 March 2023 Grain markets lost all hope for any bullishness due to a global bearish mood, export duties, and the upcoming spring planting campaign which requires cash. The grain export potential of Russia this season is tremendous. Sanctions are n...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off SVB Shakiness
Except for the livestock markets, ag futures were broadly higher on Tuesday with investor and trader confidence returning after the weekend shock to the banking sector. While Monday’s trade was weaker and heavily influenced by the macro-market panic selling relating to the Silicon Valley...
Market Commentary: Macroeconomic Shockwaves Create CBOT Jitters
The CBOT’s trade on Monday was initially focused on the weekend failure of two major banks, a fact that sent shockwaves through the macroeconomic markets to start the week. The biggest impact was heightened volatility and a strong “risk off” mentality that initially impacted C...
WASDE Corn
CORN: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date. The season-average corn price is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks, at 296...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 February – 3 March 2023 Russian grain markets maintained previous price levels and in certain segments were even slightly bullish particularly in top grade milling wheat. Low quality milling wheat and feed wheat are abundant and have been bearish for...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 - 24 February 2023 Russia had one day off last week which was an Army Day. Although the business week was one day shorter it did not stop Russian grains, and especially wheat, from losing ground. With a record crop and winning several international tenders,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 - 17 February 2023 The Russian domestic grain market was unmistakably bearish. A large crop, increasing export duties, relatively stable domestic currency, and a slower export pace have all contributed. Of course, international sanctions were introduced, a...
Market Commentary: Argy Crop Ratings Worsen; CBOT Chops Sideways into Weekend
The CBOT posted a day of two-sided trade on Friday to end a week of choppy, two-sided trade. With the three-day weekend coming up, few traders were interested in extending positions or adding risk to portfolios, which limited trading volume and price action. Additionally, there was little fresh...
Market Commentary: Exhausting the Angst
Markets trade on fundamentals and right now is the equivalent of being an ebb tide. It is a shift from angst over supply-reducing weather in South America to the bearish awe of watching its production come to market. What happens during the ebb tide is very low volume, the sole exception today...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 - 10 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained relatively stable. Feed wheat remains more expensive than barley, corn trading is animated and is slightly bullish on the domestic market but the key driver for corn demand is the export market. Exp...
WASDE Corn
USDA projected lower U.S. corn use for ethanol and larger ending stocks. U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, wit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 January - 3 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable. The only commodity which slightly recovered is barley, but this is the exception rather than the rule. It is a record crop in Russia this season. Corn is under pressure from Ukrainia...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 -27 January 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable and slightly bearish. The feature of the week was feed barley equaling feed wheat in price. Corn slightly depreciated under pressure from Ukraine which has been exporting massive amounts of th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt has reportedly secured a long-term contract with Germany to buy wheat from the European nation, though details on the agreement are sparse. Russia’s total wheat planted area for 2023 is projected to reach 29.05 Mha, down from 29.468 Mha seeded in 2022. Roma...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 - 20 January 2023 Grain prices remained relatively stable and are most likely to remain stable in the near term. The key factor creating such a “lazy” market is a record high grain crop. Farmers realize that exports are slow and domestic miller...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 20 – 24 March 2023 Many grain prices plummeted, which is no big surprise considering the massive carryover stocks. The reasons are the same: high export duties (wheat export duty is already $71.18/MT), spring campaign planting, farmers’ desperate need fo...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 – 17 March 2023 The feature of the week was the UN grain corridor which has been extended but on contradictory terms. Ukraine announced a 120-day extension while Russian officials claim the extension is only valid for another 60 days. The Russian sid...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION The Black Sea Grain Initiative has reportedly been extended but there seems to be no agreement on the time period – 60 or 120 days. Even the UN announcement of the extension did not mention the time period...
Market Commentary: Black Sea Export Deal Sinks Wheat; Markets Brace for Wednesday Fed Meeting
The CBOT started the week with some risk-off trade after Russia and Ukraine reached a deal to extend the Black Sea export corridor agreement over the weekend. The two countries are still arguing over the details of the agreement, but the major takeaway was that Ukraine can still ship grain in r...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Lack of Export Deal; Soybeans Fall Despite 25-MMT Argy Crop Prediction
Corn was the upside leader overnight with heavy volume kicking off Friday’s trade date. Three days of export sales to China plus rumors (that USDA confirmed later in the morning) of a fourth set of sales were bullish and helped put funds and commercials in a buying mood. Wheat futures con...
Market Commentary: Livestock Markets Collapse on Economic Risks; Grains Grind Higher
Bank liquidity issues and collapses remain at the forefront of the market’s collective mind with investors increasingly looking for safe-haven assets and “risk off” trades. That has exerted some influence on the ag markets, with livestock futures being the primary recipient of...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 – 10 March 2023 Grain markets lost all hope for any bullishness due to a global bearish mood, export duties, and the upcoming spring planting campaign which requires cash. The grain export potential of Russia this season is tremendous. Sanctions are n...
Market Commentary: CBOT Shakes Off SVB Shakiness
Except for the livestock markets, ag futures were broadly higher on Tuesday with investor and trader confidence returning after the weekend shock to the banking sector. While Monday’s trade was weaker and heavily influenced by the macro-market panic selling relating to the Silicon Valley...
Market Commentary: Macroeconomic Shockwaves Create CBOT Jitters
The CBOT’s trade on Monday was initially focused on the weekend failure of two major banks, a fact that sent shockwaves through the macroeconomic markets to start the week. The biggest impact was heightened volatility and a strong “risk off” mentality that initially impacted C...
WASDE Corn
CORN: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date. The season-average corn price is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks, at 296...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 27 February – 3 March 2023 Russian grain markets maintained previous price levels and in certain segments were even slightly bullish particularly in top grade milling wheat. Low quality milling wheat and feed wheat are abundant and have been bearish for...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 - 24 February 2023 Russia had one day off last week which was an Army Day. Although the business week was one day shorter it did not stop Russian grains, and especially wheat, from losing ground. With a record crop and winning several international tenders,...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 13 - 17 February 2023 The Russian domestic grain market was unmistakably bearish. A large crop, increasing export duties, relatively stable domestic currency, and a slower export pace have all contributed. Of course, international sanctions were introduced, a...
Market Commentary: Argy Crop Ratings Worsen; CBOT Chops Sideways into Weekend
The CBOT posted a day of two-sided trade on Friday to end a week of choppy, two-sided trade. With the three-day weekend coming up, few traders were interested in extending positions or adding risk to portfolios, which limited trading volume and price action. Additionally, there was little fresh...
Market Commentary: Exhausting the Angst
Markets trade on fundamentals and right now is the equivalent of being an ebb tide. It is a shift from angst over supply-reducing weather in South America to the bearish awe of watching its production come to market. What happens during the ebb tide is very low volume, the sole exception today...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 6 - 10 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained relatively stable. Feed wheat remains more expensive than barley, corn trading is animated and is slightly bullish on the domestic market but the key driver for corn demand is the export market. Exp...
WASDE Corn
USDA projected lower U.S. corn use for ethanol and larger ending stocks. U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, wit...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 30 January - 3 February 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable. The only commodity which slightly recovered is barley, but this is the exception rather than the rule. It is a record crop in Russia this season. Corn is under pressure from Ukrainia...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 23 -27 January 2023 Russian domestic grain markets remained stable and slightly bearish. The feature of the week was feed barley equaling feed wheat in price. Corn slightly depreciated under pressure from Ukraine which has been exporting massive amounts of th...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Egypt has reportedly secured a long-term contract with Germany to buy wheat from the European nation, though details on the agreement are sparse. Russia’s total wheat planted area for 2023 is projected to reach 29.05 Mha, down from 29.468 Mha seeded in 2022. Roma...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 16 - 20 January 2023 Grain prices remained relatively stable and are most likely to remain stable in the near term. The key factor creating such a “lazy” market is a record high grain crop. Farmers realize that exports are slow and domestic miller...