World Perspectives

Recent Black Sea Analysis

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 47 million bushels to 1,540 million. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 January 2022 The first week of January was holiday season, as usual, so it was impossible to register any changes on the Russian grain market. Due to the political situation in Kazakhstan, the Russian ruble got weaker and domestic prices expressed in U.S. dollar decre...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 December 2021 The last week of December on the Russian grain market was very calm. General trends were downward. Market players are not happy with decreasing prices on the world markets and the prospect of further growth of export duties.   Export milling...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased at higher rates than during the previous week due to growing grain export duties and global downward trends. Export milling wheat average offer price decreased to $332/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Concerns about the frost-tolerance of the Black Sea wheat crop are growing after the EU Commission confirmed last week that a late start to planting in the region has left crops at risk. Specifically, Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine saw a later-than-normal planting and an ear...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices continue to decrease. Export milling wheat average offer price decreased to $336/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price decreased to RUB 16,800/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export price decreased to $288...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soymeal Surges, Supports Soybeans; Corn Back Above $5.90; Cattle, Hogs Trade Lower

The CBOT largely reversed course from Monday’s trade with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all turning higher while wheat settled lower and soyoil extended its selloff. The soy complex is increasingly interesting due to the products, where soyoil is collapsing under weak technical trade and po...

feed-grains

Ukrainian Opportunity

Ukraine has become an important supplier of corn over the past decade, increasing its exports by 155 percent. However, its share of the global market has only risen from 13.3 percent to 15.8 percent because over that same period, global trade in corn rose by more than 114 percent. The area harv...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 November-3 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased mainly due to downward trends on international wheat markets and growing wheat export duties. Export milling wheat average offer price decreased to $342/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price remain...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

Growing Threat to Trade

Russia is positioning to invade Ukraine if it wants, and China is seeking to put a military base on the Atlantic in Equatorial Guinea. Then there is China’s threats to Taiwan and Iran’s potential abandonment of the nuclear agreement. One of the above could limit grain exports out of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia continues to build its troop presence on the border with Ukraine and has mobilized some 170,000 troops to the region. That is 70,000 more troops than were on the border during last year’s spring build-up. Presidents Putin and Biden are expected to talk Tuesday,...

Energy and Food Lessons; Implications of Ukraine; Omicron Buys WTO Time

Energy and Food Lessons Energy and food prices are spiking at the same time policy reform advocates are seeking wholesale changes in the production of both resources. Already policymakers in Europe are having to consider using more natural gas and nuclear energy than originally envisioned in th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions, but the changes were not dramatic. They took place mainly due to ruble weakening and an increase of export duties. Demand from domestic buyers decreased. Export milling wheat average offer pric...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions. Export duties continued to increase. Export milling wheat average offer price grew to $340/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price grew to RUB 16,900/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions and changed insignificantly. Export duties continued to grow. Export milling wheat average offer price grew to $338/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price grew to RUB 16,650/MT CPT-port Black S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Posts Contract Highs on Russia Tax/Quota Rumors; China Seeking Ukrainian Corn

Traders adopted a “risk-on” mentality the day after the November WASDE with wheat playing the role of the upside leader. While soybeans received a surprise bullish jolt yesterday from the WASDE, today was all about wheat and the reminder that world supplies remain tight this year. F...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 November 2021 The Russian grain market was very slow due to nationwide holidays. Export milling wheat average offer price grew to $332/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price grew to RUB 16,350/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export price grew to $286/MT F...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 25-29 October 2021 Average prices on the Russian grain market mainly grew. Exporters had to decrease their bid prices on the domestic market because export duties kept growing. At the same time, processors wanted to make sufficient stocks of raw materials for winter. Expo...

wheat

Competitive Wheat Suppliers

Global wheat bids and offers were more closely aligned at the beginning of 2021 and then splintered as Northern Hemisphere crops became available in the May/June timeframe. By July, wheat supplies from all origins began their trek upward as the tightening global stocks situation became more app...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 October 2021 Average prices on the Russian grain market moved in different directions. Key factors pushing prices down again were the increase of export duties and the strengthening of the Russian ruble. Export milling wheat average price grew to $318/MT FOB Black S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 October 2021 The average prices on the Russian grain market showed minimal growth. One of the main factors preventing further significant growth is that it’s impossible for the Russian exporters to continue increasing their offer prices (or their product will...

soy-oilseeds

Vegetable Oil Volatility

Although global vegetable oil prices have moderated from their peaks this past spring, they remain substantially elevated above historic values. However, certain deviations have begun to occur between the oils, with some returning to more traditional relationships and others acting more anomalo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 October 2021 The average price on the Russian grain market continued to grow but the price increases were minimal. One of the main factors preventing further significant growth is that it’s impossible for the Russian exporters to keep increasing their offer pric...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27 September-1 October 2021 Pricing trends of the previous week persisted: wheat and barley domestic prices increased moderately in the European part of Russia and significantly in the Asian part, especially in the Ural region. New harvest domestic corn prices continued t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 September 2021 Prices for grain crops (except for corn) in the domestic Russian market increased but at a more moderate rate than last week. Corn prices decreased. In the Ural region and in some areas in the Volga Valley, prices kept growing at higher rates than gen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 September 2021 Prices for grain crops in the domestic Russian market mainly increased. In the Ural region and in some areas in the Volga Valley prices continued to grow at higher rates than generally in Russia (due to lower average yields) with Ural domestic prices...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 September 2021 Prices for grain crops in the domestic Russian market mainly increased. In the Ural region and in some areas in the Volga Valley region prices grew more significantly (due to lower average yields), while in the Southern, Central and Black Soil regions...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. corn is for larger supplies, increased feed and residual use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks.  Projected beginning stocks for 2021/22 are 70 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2020/21, with reductions in corn used for e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 30 August-3 September Prices for grain crops in the Russian domestic market mainly increased. Export prices increased but so did the wheat export duty. On the one hand exporters limited offer waiting for a further increase of export prices, but on the other hand they decr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 August 2021 Prices for grain crops (except corn) in the domestic Russian market followed last week’s trend and increased, this time both in the European and in the Asian parts of Russia. Corn prices fluctuated insignificantly. One of the main events of the pas...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s 2021/22 total grain exports have reached 7 MMT so far, up 10 percent from the same time last year.  The Taliban’s takeover of the Afghanistan government and resulting collapse of international credit/payment systems will all but certainly eliminate...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 August 2021 Prices in the domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia (except for corn prices). Export milling wheat average price increased to $296/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price increased sharply to RUB...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds biofuel

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 August 2021 The domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia (except for corn prices), mainly due to the USDA report with worse forecasts than expected. Export milling wheat average price increased to $295/MT FOB Blac...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s agricultural product exports to the EU rose 10 percent in the first seven months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.  Since the start of MY 2021/22, Ukraine has exported 4.61 MMT of cereal grains, up 10 percent from the same period in 2020. Of t...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 47 million bushels to 1,540 million. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 January 2022 The first week of January was holiday season, as usual, so it was impossible to register any changes on the Russian grain market. Due to the political situation in Kazakhstan, the Russian ruble got weaker and domestic prices expressed in U.S. dollar decre...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 December 2021 The last week of December on the Russian grain market was very calm. General trends were downward. Market players are not happy with decreasing prices on the world markets and the prospect of further growth of export duties.   Export milling...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased at higher rates than during the previous week due to growing grain export duties and global downward trends. Export milling wheat average offer price decreased to $332/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Concerns about the frost-tolerance of the Black Sea wheat crop are growing after the EU Commission confirmed last week that a late start to planting in the region has left crops at risk. Specifically, Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine saw a later-than-normal planting and an ear...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices continue to decrease. Export milling wheat average offer price decreased to $336/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price decreased to RUB 16,800/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export price decreased to $288...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soymeal Surges, Supports Soybeans; Corn Back Above $5.90; Cattle, Hogs Trade Lower

The CBOT largely reversed course from Monday’s trade with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all turning higher while wheat settled lower and soyoil extended its selloff. The soy complex is increasingly interesting due to the products, where soyoil is collapsing under weak technical trade and po...

feed-grains

Ukrainian Opportunity

Ukraine has become an important supplier of corn over the past decade, increasing its exports by 155 percent. However, its share of the global market has only risen from 13.3 percent to 15.8 percent because over that same period, global trade in corn rose by more than 114 percent. The area harv...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 November-3 December 2021 Russian grain market wheat prices decreased mainly due to downward trends on international wheat markets and growing wheat export duties. Export milling wheat average offer price decreased to $342/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price remain...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

Growing Threat to Trade

Russia is positioning to invade Ukraine if it wants, and China is seeking to put a military base on the Atlantic in Equatorial Guinea. Then there is China’s threats to Taiwan and Iran’s potential abandonment of the nuclear agreement. One of the above could limit grain exports out of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia continues to build its troop presence on the border with Ukraine and has mobilized some 170,000 troops to the region. That is 70,000 more troops than were on the border during last year’s spring build-up. Presidents Putin and Biden are expected to talk Tuesday,...

Energy and Food Lessons; Implications of Ukraine; Omicron Buys WTO Time

Energy and Food Lessons Energy and food prices are spiking at the same time policy reform advocates are seeking wholesale changes in the production of both resources. Already policymakers in Europe are having to consider using more natural gas and nuclear energy than originally envisioned in th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 22-26 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions, but the changes were not dramatic. They took place mainly due to ruble weakening and an increase of export duties. Demand from domestic buyers decreased. Export milling wheat average offer pric...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions. Export duties continued to increase. Export milling wheat average offer price grew to $340/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price grew to RUB 16,900/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 8-12 November 2021 Russian grain market prices moved in different directions and changed insignificantly. Export duties continued to grow. Export milling wheat average offer price grew to $338/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price grew to RUB 16,650/MT CPT-port Black S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Posts Contract Highs on Russia Tax/Quota Rumors; China Seeking Ukrainian Corn

Traders adopted a “risk-on” mentality the day after the November WASDE with wheat playing the role of the upside leader. While soybeans received a surprise bullish jolt yesterday from the WASDE, today was all about wheat and the reminder that world supplies remain tight this year. F...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 1-5 November 2021 The Russian grain market was very slow due to nationwide holidays. Export milling wheat average offer price grew to $332/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price grew to RUB 16,350/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Feed barley average export price grew to $286/MT F...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 25-29 October 2021 Average prices on the Russian grain market mainly grew. Exporters had to decrease their bid prices on the domestic market because export duties kept growing. At the same time, processors wanted to make sufficient stocks of raw materials for winter. Expo...

wheat

Competitive Wheat Suppliers

Global wheat bids and offers were more closely aligned at the beginning of 2021 and then splintered as Northern Hemisphere crops became available in the May/June timeframe. By July, wheat supplies from all origins began their trek upward as the tightening global stocks situation became more app...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 October 2021 Average prices on the Russian grain market moved in different directions. Key factors pushing prices down again were the increase of export duties and the strengthening of the Russian ruble. Export milling wheat average price grew to $318/MT FOB Black S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 October 2021 The average prices on the Russian grain market showed minimal growth. One of the main factors preventing further significant growth is that it’s impossible for the Russian exporters to continue increasing their offer prices (or their product will...

soy-oilseeds

Vegetable Oil Volatility

Although global vegetable oil prices have moderated from their peaks this past spring, they remain substantially elevated above historic values. However, certain deviations have begun to occur between the oils, with some returning to more traditional relationships and others acting more anomalo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 October 2021 The average price on the Russian grain market continued to grow but the price increases were minimal. One of the main factors preventing further significant growth is that it’s impossible for the Russian exporters to keep increasing their offer pric...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27 September-1 October 2021 Pricing trends of the previous week persisted: wheat and barley domestic prices increased moderately in the European part of Russia and significantly in the Asian part, especially in the Ural region. New harvest domestic corn prices continued t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 20-24 September 2021 Prices for grain crops (except for corn) in the domestic Russian market increased but at a more moderate rate than last week. Corn prices decreased. In the Ural region and in some areas in the Volga Valley, prices kept growing at higher rates than gen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 September 2021 Prices for grain crops in the domestic Russian market mainly increased. In the Ural region and in some areas in the Volga Valley prices continued to grow at higher rates than generally in Russia (due to lower average yields) with Ural domestic prices...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 September 2021 Prices for grain crops in the domestic Russian market mainly increased. In the Ural region and in some areas in the Volga Valley region prices grew more significantly (due to lower average yields), while in the Southern, Central and Black Soil regions...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. corn is for larger supplies, increased feed and residual use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks.  Projected beginning stocks for 2021/22 are 70 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2020/21, with reductions in corn used for e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 30 August-3 September Prices for grain crops in the Russian domestic market mainly increased. Export prices increased but so did the wheat export duty. On the one hand exporters limited offer waiting for a further increase of export prices, but on the other hand they decr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 23-27 August 2021 Prices for grain crops (except corn) in the domestic Russian market followed last week’s trend and increased, this time both in the European and in the Asian parts of Russia. Corn prices fluctuated insignificantly. One of the main events of the pas...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s 2021/22 total grain exports have reached 7 MMT so far, up 10 percent from the same time last year.  The Taliban’s takeover of the Afghanistan government and resulting collapse of international credit/payment systems will all but certainly eliminate...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 16-20 August 2021 Prices in the domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia (except for corn prices). Export milling wheat average price increased to $296/MT FOB Black Sea. Average purchase price increased sharply to RUB...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds biofuel

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 August 2021 The domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia (except for corn prices), mainly due to the USDA report with worse forecasts than expected. Export milling wheat average price increased to $295/MT FOB Blac...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Ukraine’s agricultural product exports to the EU rose 10 percent in the first seven months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.  Since the start of MY 2021/22, Ukraine has exported 4.61 MMT of cereal grains, up 10 percent from the same period in 2020. Of t...

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