World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last month.  USDA reduced global oilseed production by 2.0 million tons to 604.2 million on lower rapeseed, cottonseed, and soybean production.&...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA raised U.S. soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20.  With projections for exports unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean production is at 4.14 billion bushels, up 10 million on increased harvested area.  Harvested area, forecast at 83.0 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.2 million from last month.  The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 49.8 bu...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. corn is for lower ending stocks.  For 2020/21, corn production is forecast 995 million bushels lower based on reduced planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage report.  The national average corn yield is unchanged at 178.5 bushels per a...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It seemed clear at the start of the day that this a weather market, and that today’s WASDE would contain few surprises. For the most part that remained true after the report was released and yet some things are inexplicable.  For example, the corn crop is threated by hot and dry weat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

There was lots of gnashing of teeth as market calculations swung between possibly threatening weather conditions, seeming positive demand and a WASDE report tomorrow that may or may not spring a surprise or two. This is the critical time of the campaign for corn, and it is not a neutral period...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Aquaculture Investment; Paraguay Soybeans

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed a major increase in U.S. export sales of soybeans both for the current marketing year and MY 2020/21. Soybean exports also were up from last week. Net soybean export sales in the week ending 2 July totaled 952,200 MT for...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Falls for Fourth Straight Month Average food prices continued to decline in May as the cost of fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, and eggs for consumers were down from a year ago. Meanwhile, the average price for pork, which has continued to increase, rose at a lower r...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Dalian Futures Market Analysis

Monthly Summary June Activity Surge Led by Corn, Egg, Palm, and Soybean Futures After the slowdown in May, trading volumes for agricultural futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange roared back in June as monthly trading volume rose by 34 percent. With a total volume of 93.41 million lots, June&...

livestock

Importance of Market Tools

It has been a wild year for U.S. pork producers. It started out dreary but then hopes picked up when the Phase One agreement was signed with China. It again turned dark with COVID-19 when packers lacked labor and had to shut fabrication plants due to disease outbreaks. Subsequent improvements i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a firm note with a long holiday weekend filled with dry weather for most of the U.S. offering support. This week’s forecast was initially supportive, with hot/dry weather forecast for the major crop-growing regions, though afternoon model runs turned wetter for the last...

Future U.S. Trade Policy

Based on the current trajectory, there will be a new U.S. president in 2021, but how will it change American trade policy? For one, there will be less arbitrary and hyper-aggressive actions by Washington. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is so upset about the current U.S. Administration&r...

feed-grains

China’s Corn Policy Bites

China has adjusted its government stockpile auction system in an incomplete effort to cool over-heated demand and prices for its reserve corn. High bid rates and outsized demand is expected to continue into the sixth auction of the season. Attempting to control the bid process is a classic reje...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn market keeps breaking records. June ended with corn exports of 4.3 MMT, by far the highest ever. The accumulated volume exported since the beginning of the campaign (starting in March 2020) reached 16.3 MMT -11 percent above the prior year while the value of corn exp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about.  Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Exports; EU Soy Imports; U.S. Minor Oilseeds; China Soy Stocks

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed the week ending 25 June was a very disappointing one for exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal and soyoil, at least for MY 2019/20. However, sales of soybeans for export in 2020/21 were a bit more positive. Net sales o...

Pessimism Reigns

Global rules for liberalized trade such as the Uruguay Round depended upon strong U.S. leadership backed by the EU. The number of countercurrents to any return to that model are now overwhelming. China has mimicked the U.S. in using economic hostage taking to leverage more nativistic outcomes...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).  The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...

livestock

A Pork Story

The U.S. hog inventory on 1 June was 79.6 million head, up 5.2 percent from a year ago. The supply is likely to stay elevated through the rest of the year. As a result, hog prices are down 41 percent YoY. The elevated pork processing margin does not characterize profit but rather the difference...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and reopen the evening of Sunday, 5 July. USDA handed the market an unwaveringly bullish acreage report on Tuesday. The report featured a 6-million-acre decrease in total crop area from the agency’s March estimate. Most of th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Where the Acres Went

Planted acres usually shift amongst crops but they do not typically go completely fallow, at least not to the scale in today’s USDA acreage report. Some shorts got caught with their pants down and took a beating today. The question is why farmers decided to let 6 million acres go idle com...

livestock

Pork Prices Lower

China continues to import pork and the attraction may grow even greater later this year. Former Iowa Farm Bureau economist David Miller says the COVID-hit pork processing sector has two million hogs backed up in the system and waiting for slaughter. Slaughter capacity was only at 60 percent for...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last month.  USDA reduced global oilseed production by 2.0 million tons to 604.2 million on lower rapeseed, cottonseed, and soybean production.&...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA raised U.S. soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20.  With projections for exports unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean production is at 4.14 billion bushels, up 10 million on increased harvested area.  Harvested area, forecast at 83.0 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.2 million from last month.  The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 49.8 bu...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. corn is for lower ending stocks.  For 2020/21, corn production is forecast 995 million bushels lower based on reduced planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage report.  The national average corn yield is unchanged at 178.5 bushels per a...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It seemed clear at the start of the day that this a weather market, and that today’s WASDE would contain few surprises. For the most part that remained true after the report was released and yet some things are inexplicable.  For example, the corn crop is threated by hot and dry weat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

There was lots of gnashing of teeth as market calculations swung between possibly threatening weather conditions, seeming positive demand and a WASDE report tomorrow that may or may not spring a surprise or two. This is the critical time of the campaign for corn, and it is not a neutral period...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Aquaculture Investment; Paraguay Soybeans

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed a major increase in U.S. export sales of soybeans both for the current marketing year and MY 2020/21. Soybean exports also were up from last week. Net soybean export sales in the week ending 2 July totaled 952,200 MT for...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Falls for Fourth Straight Month Average food prices continued to decline in May as the cost of fresh vegetables, fresh fruit, and eggs for consumers were down from a year ago. Meanwhile, the average price for pork, which has continued to increase, rose at a lower r...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Dalian Futures Market Analysis

Monthly Summary June Activity Surge Led by Corn, Egg, Palm, and Soybean Futures After the slowdown in May, trading volumes for agricultural futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange roared back in June as monthly trading volume rose by 34 percent. With a total volume of 93.41 million lots, June&...

livestock

Importance of Market Tools

It has been a wild year for U.S. pork producers. It started out dreary but then hopes picked up when the Phase One agreement was signed with China. It again turned dark with COVID-19 when packers lacked labor and had to shut fabrication plants due to disease outbreaks. Subsequent improvements i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a firm note with a long holiday weekend filled with dry weather for most of the U.S. offering support. This week’s forecast was initially supportive, with hot/dry weather forecast for the major crop-growing regions, though afternoon model runs turned wetter for the last...

Future U.S. Trade Policy

Based on the current trajectory, there will be a new U.S. president in 2021, but how will it change American trade policy? For one, there will be less arbitrary and hyper-aggressive actions by Washington. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is so upset about the current U.S. Administration&r...

feed-grains

China’s Corn Policy Bites

China has adjusted its government stockpile auction system in an incomplete effort to cool over-heated demand and prices for its reserve corn. High bid rates and outsized demand is expected to continue into the sixth auction of the season. Attempting to control the bid process is a classic reje...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn market keeps breaking records. June ended with corn exports of 4.3 MMT, by far the highest ever. The accumulated volume exported since the beginning of the campaign (starting in March 2020) reached 16.3 MMT -11 percent above the prior year while the value of corn exp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about.  Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Exports; EU Soy Imports; U.S. Minor Oilseeds; China Soy Stocks

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed the week ending 25 June was a very disappointing one for exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal and soyoil, at least for MY 2019/20. However, sales of soybeans for export in 2020/21 were a bit more positive. Net sales o...

Pessimism Reigns

Global rules for liberalized trade such as the Uruguay Round depended upon strong U.S. leadership backed by the EU. The number of countercurrents to any return to that model are now overwhelming. China has mimicked the U.S. in using economic hostage taking to leverage more nativistic outcomes...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).  The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...

livestock

A Pork Story

The U.S. hog inventory on 1 June was 79.6 million head, up 5.2 percent from a year ago. The supply is likely to stay elevated through the rest of the year. As a result, hog prices are down 41 percent YoY. The elevated pork processing margin does not characterize profit but rather the difference...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and reopen the evening of Sunday, 5 July. USDA handed the market an unwaveringly bullish acreage report on Tuesday. The report featured a 6-million-acre decrease in total crop area from the agency’s March estimate. Most of th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Where the Acres Went

Planted acres usually shift amongst crops but they do not typically go completely fallow, at least not to the scale in today’s USDA acreage report. Some shorts got caught with their pants down and took a beating today. The question is why farmers decided to let 6 million acres go idle com...

livestock

Pork Prices Lower

China continues to import pork and the attraction may grow even greater later this year. Former Iowa Farm Bureau economist David Miller says the COVID-hit pork processing sector has two million hogs backed up in the system and waiting for slaughter. Slaughter capacity was only at 60 percent for...

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