World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price outlook is projected at 45.0 cents per pound, up 4 cents. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean meal price outlook is unchanged at $400 per short ton...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

U.S. soybean outlook is for higher exports, lower crush, residual use, and seed use.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast.  The season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.25 per bushel, up 10 cents...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

U.S. corn outlook is for greater feed and residual use, increased corn used for ethanol production, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels and exports are increased 75 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.3...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.  Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million.  Exports are unchanged.  Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Setting Up Surprise

Traders say they do not like surprises but they seem to be setting up for one tomorrow. There is a lot of room for disappointment when USDA releases its April WASDE report. For 80 percent of the datapoints surveyed by Reuters, the trade expects USDA to give them more bullish numbers (see table...

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy; Trade Bullying

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy A session at the Washington International Trade Association today tried to unravel the meaning of the Biden Administration’s so-called worker-led trade policy. Most of the discussion centered on high level economic theory and the mischaracterization of tra...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop; Grains Chop Sideways

Cattle and hog futures are lodged in massive bullish uptrends that seem to have no end in sight. All three major livestock contracts posted fresh contract highs this afternoon with open interest and trading volume rising as well. In contrast, the grain markets chopped sideways with the day&rsqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Price Sees Modest Increase in Last Full Week of March The national average live hog price through the week ending 26 March rose slightly by .8 percent to RMB 27.46/kg ($4.18/kg) or RMB 12.45/lb. ($1.90/lb.). Meanwhile, the Dalian live hog futures contracts have seen some siza...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Chops Sideways; Livestock Markets Rally

The CBOT started out strong but pulled back on quiet volumes and limited follow-through buying. Buyers are looking at early forecasts for ample grain and oilseed supplies in 2021/22 and see no reason to chase the market higher heading into the April WASDE. USDA’s April report is generally...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spread Trade Supports Wheat, Pressures Corn; Hogs Post Bearish Reversal

April could be one of the most volatile months of trading for 2021. Last week’s reports certainly surprised the market and traders are once again bracing for the April WASDE that will be released Friday. Typically, the April WASDE isn’t a major market-moving report, but this year co...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Last week was shortened by holidays but the FAS market moved higher once again. Exporters are present in the market and are bidding for different deliveries. Farmers are either harvesting or are close to starting their harvest and continue to make sales to ensure logistics. They are findin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Discriminating Capital

A lot of money  won and lost after the reports were issued yesterday. The drive up in corn prices hammered feeder cattle and lean hog values. No new highs were established but limits up were reached and new trading limits were established for today. Volumes were generally huge yesterday an...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Bullish Hogs and Pork

Yesterday’s Planting Intentions and Grain Ending Stocks reports from USDA were market movers, but despite the effects of higher feed prices, there was also bullish news on the hog and pork front.   First, as we reported last week, the quarterly hogs and pigs report showed smalle...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Prospective Plantings Report; China’s Soy Stocks

U.S. Soy Exports and Sales Continue to Decline Today’s USDA export sales report showed U.S. soy export sales and exports continued their seasonal decline as South America ramps ups its harvest and exports. However, new soybean sales to China were a bit of a surprise. The weekly report ind...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Surprise! Corn, Soybean Acres Below Expectations; CBOT Ends Limit-Up

USDA surprised the markets with planted acreage forecasts that were well below pre-report expectations. USDA pegged 2021 corn acres at just 91.1 million, up fractionally from the prior year while soybean acres were pegged at 87.6 million, up 5.4 percent. Both figures were well below the low end...

China In-Country Analysis

WPI’s weekly China In-Country analysis report is delayed. Thanks for your patience and understanding. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact us...

Taiwan – Tip of the Spear

It is unclear which of several geopolitical rifts (Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea, etc.) between China and the west is going to prove the tipping point toward open conflict but there are ample opportunities. Beijing’s latest move was to reduce and control the number of elect...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Fund Selling Accelerates on Chart Breakdowns; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom

The CBOT saw widespread selling Tuesday with fund managers liquidating longs as the end of the month and quarter draw near. Tuesday’s trade once again had the feeling of washing out weak longs with few speculators willing to buy into the decline with significant uncertainty in tomorrow&rs...

Face of Lobbying Changes; African Opportunity

Face of Lobbying Changes  WTO members led by India and South Africa are pushing for a waiver from Intellectual Property (IP) protections for any goods related to COVID-19. Specifically, they want to freely replicate the vaccines that have been developed by private companies like Pfizer, Mo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - March 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue examines the oilseeds, produce and organic food markets, agriculture policy under the Biden Administration, as well as analysis from China, the Middle East, and Africa.   ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Mostly Lower Ahead of USDA Reports

The CBOT was mostly lower on Monday with a stronger U.S. dollar pressuring ag markets. Soyoil rallied with support from palm oil but soybeans and soymeal fell and moved lower into technical support. A key feature of Monday’s trade was reversal of existing long corn/short wheat spreads wit...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn After last week’s rains across Argentina, the corn crop’s moisture level was too high for harvest, slowing the weekly progress rate to just 1.1 percent. So far, only 7 percent of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested, and yields are highly variable and below last year’...

livestock

ASF Loosens Import Restrictions

The Philippines may increase its pork imports under a reduced tariff by over 600 percent, from 54,210 MT to 404,210 MT to better meet demand and reduce price inflation. The agriculture ministry says around 15 percent of the hog inventory was lost to ASF in 2020 and, as a result, it cannot meet...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price outlook is projected at 45.0 cents per pound, up 4 cents. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean meal price outlook is unchanged at $400 per short ton...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

U.S. soybean outlook is for higher exports, lower crush, residual use, and seed use.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast.  The season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.25 per bushel, up 10 cents...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

U.S. corn outlook is for greater feed and residual use, increased corn used for ethanol production, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels and exports are increased 75 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.3...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.  Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million.  Exports are unchanged.  Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Setting Up Surprise

Traders say they do not like surprises but they seem to be setting up for one tomorrow. There is a lot of room for disappointment when USDA releases its April WASDE report. For 80 percent of the datapoints surveyed by Reuters, the trade expects USDA to give them more bullish numbers (see table...

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy; Trade Bullying

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy A session at the Washington International Trade Association today tried to unravel the meaning of the Biden Administration’s so-called worker-led trade policy. Most of the discussion centered on high level economic theory and the mischaracterization of tra...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Livestock Futures Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop; Grains Chop Sideways

Cattle and hog futures are lodged in massive bullish uptrends that seem to have no end in sight. All three major livestock contracts posted fresh contract highs this afternoon with open interest and trading volume rising as well. In contrast, the grain markets chopped sideways with the day&rsqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Live Hog Price Sees Modest Increase in Last Full Week of March The national average live hog price through the week ending 26 March rose slightly by .8 percent to RMB 27.46/kg ($4.18/kg) or RMB 12.45/lb. ($1.90/lb.). Meanwhile, the Dalian live hog futures contracts have seen some siza...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Chops Sideways; Livestock Markets Rally

The CBOT started out strong but pulled back on quiet volumes and limited follow-through buying. Buyers are looking at early forecasts for ample grain and oilseed supplies in 2021/22 and see no reason to chase the market higher heading into the April WASDE. USDA’s April report is generally...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spread Trade Supports Wheat, Pressures Corn; Hogs Post Bearish Reversal

April could be one of the most volatile months of trading for 2021. Last week’s reports certainly surprised the market and traders are once again bracing for the April WASDE that will be released Friday. Typically, the April WASDE isn’t a major market-moving report, but this year co...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Last week was shortened by holidays but the FAS market moved higher once again. Exporters are present in the market and are bidding for different deliveries. Farmers are either harvesting or are close to starting their harvest and continue to make sales to ensure logistics. They are findin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Discriminating Capital

A lot of money  won and lost after the reports were issued yesterday. The drive up in corn prices hammered feeder cattle and lean hog values. No new highs were established but limits up were reached and new trading limits were established for today. Volumes were generally huge yesterday an...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Bullish Hogs and Pork

Yesterday’s Planting Intentions and Grain Ending Stocks reports from USDA were market movers, but despite the effects of higher feed prices, there was also bullish news on the hog and pork front.   First, as we reported last week, the quarterly hogs and pigs report showed smalle...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Prospective Plantings Report; China’s Soy Stocks

U.S. Soy Exports and Sales Continue to Decline Today’s USDA export sales report showed U.S. soy export sales and exports continued their seasonal decline as South America ramps ups its harvest and exports. However, new soybean sales to China were a bit of a surprise. The weekly report ind...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Surprise! Corn, Soybean Acres Below Expectations; CBOT Ends Limit-Up

USDA surprised the markets with planted acreage forecasts that were well below pre-report expectations. USDA pegged 2021 corn acres at just 91.1 million, up fractionally from the prior year while soybean acres were pegged at 87.6 million, up 5.4 percent. Both figures were well below the low end...

China In-Country Analysis

WPI’s weekly China In-Country analysis report is delayed. Thanks for your patience and understanding. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact us...

Taiwan – Tip of the Spear

It is unclear which of several geopolitical rifts (Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South China Sea, etc.) between China and the west is going to prove the tipping point toward open conflict but there are ample opportunities. Beijing’s latest move was to reduce and control the number of elect...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Fund Selling Accelerates on Chart Breakdowns; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom

The CBOT saw widespread selling Tuesday with fund managers liquidating longs as the end of the month and quarter draw near. Tuesday’s trade once again had the feeling of washing out weak longs with few speculators willing to buy into the decline with significant uncertainty in tomorrow&rs...

Face of Lobbying Changes; African Opportunity

Face of Lobbying Changes  WTO members led by India and South Africa are pushing for a waiver from Intellectual Property (IP) protections for any goods related to COVID-19. Specifically, they want to freely replicate the vaccines that have been developed by private companies like Pfizer, Mo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - March 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This issue examines the oilseeds, produce and organic food markets, agriculture policy under the Biden Administration, as well as analysis from China, the Middle East, and Africa.   ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Mostly Lower Ahead of USDA Reports

The CBOT was mostly lower on Monday with a stronger U.S. dollar pressuring ag markets. Soyoil rallied with support from palm oil but soybeans and soymeal fell and moved lower into technical support. A key feature of Monday’s trade was reversal of existing long corn/short wheat spreads wit...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn After last week’s rains across Argentina, the corn crop’s moisture level was too high for harvest, slowing the weekly progress rate to just 1.1 percent. So far, only 7 percent of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested, and yields are highly variable and below last year’...

livestock

ASF Loosens Import Restrictions

The Philippines may increase its pork imports under a reduced tariff by over 600 percent, from 54,210 MT to 404,210 MT to better meet demand and reduce price inflation. The agriculture ministry says around 15 percent of the hog inventory was lost to ASF in 2020 and, as a result, it cannot meet...

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