Responding to China
EU Trade Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is headed to China, reportedly with the message to sign onto some form of trade agreement giving Europe assurances of a more balanced relationship, or risk things getting worse. It doesn’t help when Beijing’s rhetoric is over-wrought. The EU has...
Chinese Energy Imports: Crude Oil at Record Levels
There has been much attention to, and discussion of, China’s declining two-way trade volumes. China is a trade dependent economy, with imports of many commodities and goods fueling its manufacturing and processing sectors and exports bringing in hard currency. China’s trade flows, h...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite recent rains and improvements in the wheat crop’s overall state, the Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its production estimate by 600,000 MT, which now stands at a total production of 15 MMT. This is because the area from the center of the Cordoba Province northward and wes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 September 2023 Russian grain markets remained bearish, however, export volumes of all agricultural commodities from Russia remained stable. Russia has no navigation restrictions across the Black Sea. Going through Bosporus or any other channel, Russia can...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal p...
WASDE Corn
USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged. The result is ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel. Foreig...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
Brazil and China Dominate Beef Market
A drop in U.S. beef exports is corresponding with the cattle cycle fall in production. U.S. beef production is falling by a half million tons, with domestic consumption losing about half that amount, and reduced exports offsetting about a third of the lower output. The export drop looks more si...
Market Commentary: Futures Unfazed by Heat but Barge Rates Soar; Crush Report Shows Soyoil Demand
The CBOT was mostly flat in quiet trade to end the week with traders showing little concern for a weekend of hot, dry weather for most of the crop-growing U.S. Corn and soybeans managed to find their way to modest gains on short covering and some reaction to the weather, but wheat futures ended...
Market Commentary: Sliding into Fall
It was another day of the weather and Chicago working at cross purposes. Continued heat and dryness are expected to knock corn and soybean yields lower but it was another day of losses for grains and oilseeds. There may be some profit taking ahead of the upcoming three-day holiday weekend, but...
Market Commentary: Lots of Mixed Messages
You are reading this report to better understand the issue of risk. This might make you unusual since the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center reports that respondents to its surveys show only 35 percent answer questions correctly about the topic. Then again, it is a tricky subject. Even...
More BRICS, Same Problems
The BRICS Group, a club of nations with the goal of tilting the international order away from the West, has invited six countries to join and make it an unhappy family of eleven. We previously noted the shortcomings of the original BRICS and the new cousins have similar genetic defects: A...
BRICS Domination
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting in South Africa are being noted for contributing a higher share (31.5 percent) to global GDP than the G7 (30.7 percent). They also comprise 26.7 percent of the world's land surface and 41.5 percent of the global population...
China Flips on Food
Washington goes paranoid over import dependence on microchips and EV’s, but not food despite a recent trade deficit in grub. Nations that have experienced starvation in the past, such as those in Europe and China tend to focus on food self-sufficiency. Until recently, the mantra from Beij...
Feast or Famine
The COVID supply chain meltdown created anxiety over the availability of agricultural inputs. This compelled many operators to look forward and lock in their needs for 2023, often at elevated prices. This buy-high insurance marker has been met with ammonia prices that have now fallen by 50 perc...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics After Argentina’s elections and currency devaluation, it experienced another week filled with rumors and uncertainty. Financial and parallel exchange rates adjusted automatically, causing the gap against the official rate to exceed 100 percent, which was worse than before t...
Market Commentary: Midwest and CBOT Heat Up; Hog Rally Eases Discount; Cattle Supplies Tighten
The CBOT was almost uniformly higher to end the week as crop markets are increasingly concerned about the coming two-week weather forecast. The next week will be extremely hot and dry for the Midwest and corn and soybean yields are likely to take a hit. Just how hard-hit they will be remains th...
Market Commentary: CBOT Breaks Support on Crop Ratings, China Data; World Water Worries
The CBOT was sharply lower for the day with wheat, corn, and soybeans all breaking major technical support points. Yesterday’s better-than-expected Crop Conditions report from USDA added pressure overnight, despite the two-week forecast for very hot temperatures and dry conditions for the...
Trade Deficit Focus; Measuring Up China
Trade Deficit Focus The U.S. trade deficit for goods and services declined slightly in June for the second month in a row but the overall annual number is headed toward more than $1 trillion for a third year in a row. China remains the largest source for deficit goods trade despite a shift towa...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased their estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook beginning stocks by 55 million bushels. However, the estimate for total supply declined more than use and that caused ending stocks to decline by 60 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Costs See Sharp Drop in July After a Sizable Uptick in June Food prices have whipsawed this summer after seeing a steady climb in Q2. After a 1 percent uptick in May, the average cost of food moved up 2.3 percent in June from the year prior. While pork prices fell by 7.2 per...
Market Commentary: Calm before the Calm
Early pattern recognition on the CBOT today ahead of tomorrow’s August WASDE report - bottom line no drama. Volume was slack, except in lean hogs, and trading ranges were muted. December corn had a trading range of 4.75 cents, which is to say it is settled science. Except for Monday, over...
Responding to China
EU Trade Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is headed to China, reportedly with the message to sign onto some form of trade agreement giving Europe assurances of a more balanced relationship, or risk things getting worse. It doesn’t help when Beijing’s rhetoric is over-wrought. The EU has...
Chinese Energy Imports: Crude Oil at Record Levels
There has been much attention to, and discussion of, China’s declining two-way trade volumes. China is a trade dependent economy, with imports of many commodities and goods fueling its manufacturing and processing sectors and exports bringing in hard currency. China’s trade flows, h...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Despite recent rains and improvements in the wheat crop’s overall state, the Rosario Grain Exchange has reduced its production estimate by 600,000 MT, which now stands at a total production of 15 MMT. This is because the area from the center of the Cordoba Province northward and wes...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4–8 September 2023 Russian grain markets remained bearish, however, export volumes of all agricultural commodities from Russia remained stable. Russia has no navigation restrictions across the Black Sea. Going through Bosporus or any other channel, Russia can...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal p...
WASDE Corn
USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged. The result is ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel. Foreig...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
Brazil and China Dominate Beef Market
A drop in U.S. beef exports is corresponding with the cattle cycle fall in production. U.S. beef production is falling by a half million tons, with domestic consumption losing about half that amount, and reduced exports offsetting about a third of the lower output. The export drop looks more si...
Market Commentary: Futures Unfazed by Heat but Barge Rates Soar; Crush Report Shows Soyoil Demand
The CBOT was mostly flat in quiet trade to end the week with traders showing little concern for a weekend of hot, dry weather for most of the crop-growing U.S. Corn and soybeans managed to find their way to modest gains on short covering and some reaction to the weather, but wheat futures ended...
Market Commentary: Sliding into Fall
It was another day of the weather and Chicago working at cross purposes. Continued heat and dryness are expected to knock corn and soybean yields lower but it was another day of losses for grains and oilseeds. There may be some profit taking ahead of the upcoming three-day holiday weekend, but...
Market Commentary: Lots of Mixed Messages
You are reading this report to better understand the issue of risk. This might make you unusual since the Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center reports that respondents to its surveys show only 35 percent answer questions correctly about the topic. Then again, it is a tricky subject. Even...
More BRICS, Same Problems
The BRICS Group, a club of nations with the goal of tilting the international order away from the West, has invited six countries to join and make it an unhappy family of eleven. We previously noted the shortcomings of the original BRICS and the new cousins have similar genetic defects: A...
BRICS Domination
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting in South Africa are being noted for contributing a higher share (31.5 percent) to global GDP than the G7 (30.7 percent). They also comprise 26.7 percent of the world's land surface and 41.5 percent of the global population...
China Flips on Food
Washington goes paranoid over import dependence on microchips and EV’s, but not food despite a recent trade deficit in grub. Nations that have experienced starvation in the past, such as those in Europe and China tend to focus on food self-sufficiency. Until recently, the mantra from Beij...
Feast or Famine
The COVID supply chain meltdown created anxiety over the availability of agricultural inputs. This compelled many operators to look forward and lock in their needs for 2023, often at elevated prices. This buy-high insurance marker has been met with ammonia prices that have now fallen by 50 perc...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics After Argentina’s elections and currency devaluation, it experienced another week filled with rumors and uncertainty. Financial and parallel exchange rates adjusted automatically, causing the gap against the official rate to exceed 100 percent, which was worse than before t...
Market Commentary: Midwest and CBOT Heat Up; Hog Rally Eases Discount; Cattle Supplies Tighten
The CBOT was almost uniformly higher to end the week as crop markets are increasingly concerned about the coming two-week weather forecast. The next week will be extremely hot and dry for the Midwest and corn and soybean yields are likely to take a hit. Just how hard-hit they will be remains th...
Market Commentary: CBOT Breaks Support on Crop Ratings, China Data; World Water Worries
The CBOT was sharply lower for the day with wheat, corn, and soybeans all breaking major technical support points. Yesterday’s better-than-expected Crop Conditions report from USDA added pressure overnight, despite the two-week forecast for very hot temperatures and dry conditions for the...
Trade Deficit Focus; Measuring Up China
Trade Deficit Focus The U.S. trade deficit for goods and services declined slightly in June for the second month in a row but the overall annual number is headed toward more than $1 trillion for a third year in a row. China remains the largest source for deficit goods trade despite a shift towa...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased their estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook beginning stocks by 55 million bushels. However, the estimate for total supply declined more than use and that caused ending stocks to decline by 60 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
China In-Country Analysis
Macroeconomics Food Costs See Sharp Drop in July After a Sizable Uptick in June Food prices have whipsawed this summer after seeing a steady climb in Q2. After a 1 percent uptick in May, the average cost of food moved up 2.3 percent in June from the year prior. While pork prices fell by 7.2 per...
Market Commentary: Calm before the Calm
Early pattern recognition on the CBOT today ahead of tomorrow’s August WASDE report - bottom line no drama. Volume was slack, except in lean hogs, and trading ranges were muted. December corn had a trading range of 4.75 cents, which is to say it is settled science. Except for Monday, over...