World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire

The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...

The Daily Onion

Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Gambling on China

The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Changing China’s Planting Priorities; August Soy Crush Report; U.S. Soy Sales

China Urged to Prioritize Corn, Wheat and Rice Production Over Soybean Production Speakers at this year’s China Soybean Industry International Summit Forum urged the government of China to stop prioritizing the plantings of soybeans to supply the animal food market and instead allow more...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

More Questions for Grain Markets

Grain and soy futures markets often pose more questions than answers. In terms of trade volume and volatility that is a good thing since it is questions not answers that fuel markets. In that sense last week’s WASDE answered a few questions at least temporarily but raised many more. USDA&...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads

The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China Furthers Stimulates Live Hog Production and Risks Grow China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) recently announced an increase in the central government’s direct subsidy to major live hog production counties. The new policy will increase the annual am...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower with Harvest Looming

Now halfway through the month of September, the CBOT is looking like the rally is ending, or at least on pause for a while. Row crops and wheat were lower as the focus turns to the large U.S. harvest and overbought technical conditions. The U.S. corn harvest is starting and early yield results...

feed-grains

Rice Self-Sufficiency

It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire.  Global rice trade hi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Again; WPI 2020 S&D; Beef Turning Bullish

The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with soybeans and soyoil extending their rallies. Corn and wheat were firmer but posted a relatively lackluster day of trading. Soyoil reversed course and fell lower under pressure from long profit taking and bull soyoil/soymeal spreads. Cattle futur...

Branstad Departs; Speculatively Correct; Bullish Tractors

Branstad Departs Former Iowa governor and U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad is departing his post in Beijing. Some call it a perilous time to leave given souring bilateral relations, others say it is only because he needs to campaign for Mr. Trump’s re-election. Alternatively, U.S.-...

livestock

Pork Progress

China claims that its pig herd is now down 20 percent from before ASF decimated its stock, but USDA places the country's pork production down 33 percent. Pork meat imports over that same period are up 193 percent. China is subsidizing pig farmers both large and small, but it doesn’t help...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The wheat market has become interesting over the past few weeks. At the beginning of September, the core agricultural area received an average of 25 mm of rain with three consecutive days of precipitation that allowed good penetration into the soil profile. Although the rains were less th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Weather patterns across much of Europe and the Black Sea remain lodged in a hot, dry trend causing likely delays and reductions in winter crop planted areas. The EU Commission noted that “severe drought conditions” exist across eastern Romania, eastern Bulga...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: WASDE Neutral, Soybeans Rally Anyway; Hogs Explode Higher

The September WASDE failed to offer truly bullish surprises, but you wouldn’t know that from the CBOT’s reaction. The soy complex ended sharply higher for the day and November soybeans briefly challenged the $10.00 mark. Corn finished the day basically steady as pre-report gains wer...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

 The soybean oil price forecast is 32.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

The soybean meal price is projected at $315 per short ton, up 25 dollars. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans – USDA reduced the estimated yield from 53.3 to 51.9 bushels per acre.  Beginning stocks for the 2020/21 season were also reduced.  Ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 150 million from last month.  Lower U.S. stocks are partly offset by higher...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

Corn – USDA reduced U.S. corn ending stocks for 2020/21.  The average U.S. yield was reduced from 181.8 to 178.5 bushels per acre.  U.S.corn production is forecast at 14.9 billion bushels, down 378 million from last month on a lower yield forecast and reduction in harvested area...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged.   The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

USDA Adjusts Stocks

Today’s September WASDE report reflects important adjustments in the projected ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Overall, global stocks of soybeans and wheat were increased while that of corn fell. But the larger changes can be attributed to just a handful of countries. Though...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Already Low Hog Prices Moving into Seasonal Low-Price Period

The July monthly export data show both beef and pork down from year-ago levels but up from June. Compared to June, beef exports were up 36 percent in volume and 9 percent below July 2019. Pork exports were up 7 percent over June but 5 percent below year-ago levels. July was the lowest month sin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Big Bets on Tomorrow

The market is frothy. Tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report could affirm today’s relatively bullish sentiment, or it could break it on fundamentals. The question is whether USDA’s corrections in yield, production and stocks go as far as current guesses. In all likelihood, there will be...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Record 2020/21 Soybean Export Sales; China Flooding; Brazil Soybeans

U.S. New Crop Soybean Export Sales Above Pace of 2016/17 As of today, U.S. exporters have reported to USDA the sale of 25.997 MMT of soybeans for export in MY 2020/21, including 15.073 MMT reportedly sold to China. A year ago, sales totaled only 6.403 MMT with only 0.260 MMT sold to China.&nbsp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire

The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...

The Daily Onion

Starches and protein are the largest caloric components of the western diet and WPI analyzes them all day long. Notably, the onion is one of the most important components in the Indian diet. Periodically, there is the risk of civil unrest due to production shortfalls of the vegetable. Consequen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Gambling on China

The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Changing China’s Planting Priorities; August Soy Crush Report; U.S. Soy Sales

China Urged to Prioritize Corn, Wheat and Rice Production Over Soybean Production Speakers at this year’s China Soybean Industry International Summit Forum urged the government of China to stop prioritizing the plantings of soybeans to supply the animal food market and instead allow more...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

More Questions for Grain Markets

Grain and soy futures markets often pose more questions than answers. In terms of trade volume and volatility that is a good thing since it is questions not answers that fuel markets. In that sense last week’s WASDE answered a few questions at least temporarily but raised many more. USDA&...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads

The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock China Furthers Stimulates Live Hog Production and Risks Grow China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) recently announced an increase in the central government’s direct subsidy to major live hog production counties. The new policy will increase the annual am...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Turns Lower with Harvest Looming

Now halfway through the month of September, the CBOT is looking like the rally is ending, or at least on pause for a while. Row crops and wheat were lower as the focus turns to the large U.S. harvest and overbought technical conditions. The U.S. corn harvest is starting and early yield results...

feed-grains

Rice Self-Sufficiency

It is noted that rice imports by Nigeria are declining, with increased border protections and larger domestic production to blame. However, the same dynamic is occurring in other major rice markets such as the Philippines, China, Saudi Arabia, and Cote d’Ivoire.  Global rice trade hi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies Again; WPI 2020 S&D; Beef Turning Bullish

The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with soybeans and soyoil extending their rallies. Corn and wheat were firmer but posted a relatively lackluster day of trading. Soyoil reversed course and fell lower under pressure from long profit taking and bull soyoil/soymeal spreads. Cattle futur...

Branstad Departs; Speculatively Correct; Bullish Tractors

Branstad Departs Former Iowa governor and U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad is departing his post in Beijing. Some call it a perilous time to leave given souring bilateral relations, others say it is only because he needs to campaign for Mr. Trump’s re-election. Alternatively, U.S.-...

livestock

Pork Progress

China claims that its pig herd is now down 20 percent from before ASF decimated its stock, but USDA places the country's pork production down 33 percent. Pork meat imports over that same period are up 193 percent. China is subsidizing pig farmers both large and small, but it doesn’t help...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat The wheat market has become interesting over the past few weeks. At the beginning of September, the core agricultural area received an average of 25 mm of rain with three consecutive days of precipitation that allowed good penetration into the soil profile. Although the rains were less th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Weather patterns across much of Europe and the Black Sea remain lodged in a hot, dry trend causing likely delays and reductions in winter crop planted areas. The EU Commission noted that “severe drought conditions” exist across eastern Romania, eastern Bulga...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: WASDE Neutral, Soybeans Rally Anyway; Hogs Explode Higher

The September WASDE failed to offer truly bullish surprises, but you wouldn’t know that from the CBOT’s reaction. The soy complex ended sharply higher for the day and November soybeans briefly challenged the $10.00 mark. Corn finished the day basically steady as pre-report gains wer...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

 The soybean oil price forecast is 32.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

The soybean meal price is projected at $315 per short ton, up 25 dollars. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans – USDA reduced the estimated yield from 53.3 to 51.9 bushels per acre.  Beginning stocks for the 2020/21 season were also reduced.  Ending stocks are projected at 460 million bushels, down 150 million from last month.  Lower U.S. stocks are partly offset by higher...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

Corn – USDA reduced U.S. corn ending stocks for 2020/21.  The average U.S. yield was reduced from 181.8 to 178.5 bushels per acre.  U.S.corn production is forecast at 14.9 billion bushels, down 378 million from last month on a lower yield forecast and reduction in harvested area...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged.   The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

USDA Adjusts Stocks

Today’s September WASDE report reflects important adjustments in the projected ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Overall, global stocks of soybeans and wheat were increased while that of corn fell. But the larger changes can be attributed to just a handful of countries. Though...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Already Low Hog Prices Moving into Seasonal Low-Price Period

The July monthly export data show both beef and pork down from year-ago levels but up from June. Compared to June, beef exports were up 36 percent in volume and 9 percent below July 2019. Pork exports were up 7 percent over June but 5 percent below year-ago levels. July was the lowest month sin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Big Bets on Tomorrow

The market is frothy. Tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report could affirm today’s relatively bullish sentiment, or it could break it on fundamentals. The question is whether USDA’s corrections in yield, production and stocks go as far as current guesses. In all likelihood, there will be...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Record 2020/21 Soybean Export Sales; China Flooding; Brazil Soybeans

U.S. New Crop Soybean Export Sales Above Pace of 2016/17 As of today, U.S. exporters have reported to USDA the sale of 25.997 MMT of soybeans for export in MY 2020/21, including 15.073 MMT reportedly sold to China. A year ago, sales totaled only 6.403 MMT with only 0.260 MMT sold to China.&nbsp...

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