World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

Trade Policy Wowzas; Weighing Risks; Monopoly Hunters

Trade Policy Wowzas It is a long weekend for the commodity futures market, and policymakers have left a bevy of developments to think about, including the following: China: It is still a mercantilist concept, but China is reportedly offering to ramp up a six-year buying spree of U.S. goods, pur...

feed-grains biofuel

U.S. Corn Ending Supplies Will Be Smaller

As said every year at this time when we take a very preliminary look at the corn outlook for the coming marketing year, it will be all about yield. The U.S. corn farmer has enjoyed four consecutive years of incredibly good yields, but we tend to lose sight of that and automatically plug in anot...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of that enthusiasm was present today in either of those markets, though. Meanwhile, soybean futures made a run at double-digit gains before closi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least through January. Otherwise, inputs were lacking, however, and trading was uninspired. The overnight trade gave no hint of the rally that took of...

soy-oilseeds

South American Soybeans and Weather

In these days of the USDA blackout, the soybean market is left to focus on the prospects from U.S. China trade negotiations and South American weather. Of course, this situation would not change much if USDA were back in business as those would remain the key issues, but its final U.S. soybean...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...

Diluted Brinksmanship; Dems Pick Trade Leader; Polite or Duplicitous; Glyphocide

Diluted Brinksmanship Politicians do not usually make unpleasant decisions until and unless they are forced into a corner. That is the whole point of brinkmanship in politics - to force a change in position. However, the two current and most prominent efforts at brinkmanship, the U.S. trade war...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Sharp Correction in Soymeal Inventory With China’s soybean imports down sharply last month versus December 2017, the nationwide estimated soymeal inventory fell substantially last week as sales activity ramped up to prepare for the Chinese New Year. As of 11 January, that invento...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This difficulty was a signal that Tuesday might be a tough day for the markets, and so it was. Markets assume that China has purchased 5 MMT of soybea...

Pick Your Messenger; Markets Judges are (Flawed) People Too; Betrayals All Around; Common Transatlantic Problems

Pick Your Messenger President Trump assured farmers attending the American Farm Bureau annual meeting that the negotiations with China are going great and they will be the beneficiaries. He said a deal is in the offing due to the duties he imposed on Chinese goods. By contrast, U.S. Trade Repre...

soy-oilseeds softs energy

Brainstorming without USDA

It takes something like the current partial shutdown of the U.S. government to make those involved with agricultural markets realize how much we depend on the stream of data from USDA. The regularity of things like export sales reports, livestock reports, and estimates of production, supplies a...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean Inspections; China’s Soybean Imports; South American Weather; NOPA Crush

Higher Soybean Inspections Last Week but Not Many for China Yesterday’s USDA export inspections report indicated 1,085,251 MT of soybeans were inspected in the week ending 10 January. That was up 59 percent from 682,029 MT the previous week but down from 1,244,979 MT in the same week of 2...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat and soybean futures were lower overnight, and they stuck to that pattern through the day with soybeans opening with steeper losses. Meanwhile, corn was steady during the night session and finished today fractionally higher after posting 2-3 cent gains in the first half hour. The U.S. gove...

soy-oilseeds

Bearish Soybean Outlook for MY 2019/20

.S. soybean supplies at the end of MY 2019/20 could exceed a record 1 billion bushels. However, the following factors could change that outlook: A steep reduction in U.S. plantings coupled with a yield problem A continuation and worsening of the dry weather across Brazil A quick end to the Chi...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The soybean market remains slow. With China very quiet and Brazil currently cheaper than U.S. Gulf, basis continues to fall. The only movement has been for spot positions with the market turning into a carry structure for January onward. Last week there were rumors of a trade at...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Lower U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks Again in 2019/20

One of the major USDA reports that were supposed to be issued today was the U.S. winter wheat planting estimate. WPI’s own estimate that was discussed last Friday (click here ) includes a 1.9 million acre reduction in those plantings and an 800,000 acre increase in spring wheat plant...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user industry (starch and poultry) asked the government of India (GOI) to allow imports. Prices continued to rise at that time, reaching $266/MT at o...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...

Odd Man Up; Antibiotic Correlations; Half-Truths; Supplying the World

Odd Man Up Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is chairman of the powerful U.S. Senate Finance Committee and is at once mainstream and unpredictable. He has said he disagrees with Donald Trump’s use of the national security (Section 232) rationale for extracting concessions from trading partners, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Bullish Markets Until ……?

Grain and soy futures markets were mostly mired in a pit of bearish mud for the last half of 2018. Years of big U.S. and world crops had resulted in a buildup of stocks to record or near-record levels. Estimated world consumption of corn and wheat seemed to finally catch up with production...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...

Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal; Globalization’s Future

Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal It comes with downsides, but U.S. agriculture continues to be highlighted in a manner that would have been unheard of a few years ago. Analysts would listen keenly for the rare times when a president would make a mere mention of farmers in the annual State of...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reaches 20-Week High With market data limited last week due to the New Year holiday, there was a lag in reporting. During the two-week information hiatus, China’s estimated soymeal inventory rose to a 20-week high of 1.23 MMT as of 4 January 2019. That was up 28...

Trade Policy Wowzas; Weighing Risks; Monopoly Hunters

Trade Policy Wowzas It is a long weekend for the commodity futures market, and policymakers have left a bevy of developments to think about, including the following: China: It is still a mercantilist concept, but China is reportedly offering to ramp up a six-year buying spree of U.S. goods, pur...

feed-grains biofuel

U.S. Corn Ending Supplies Will Be Smaller

As said every year at this time when we take a very preliminary look at the corn outlook for the coming marketing year, it will be all about yield. The U.S. corn farmer has enjoyed four consecutive years of incredibly good yields, but we tend to lose sight of that and automatically plug in anot...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets had some follow-through overnight from yesterday’s good gains. Wheat and soybeans were up 3-4 cents with corn fractionally higher. None of that enthusiasm was present today in either of those markets, though. Meanwhile, soybean futures made a run at double-digit gains before closi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices were mildly firmer overnight, based mostly on forecasts that the adverse South American weather conditions would persist at least through January. Otherwise, inputs were lacking, however, and trading was uninspired. The overnight trade gave no hint of the rally that took of...

soy-oilseeds

South American Soybeans and Weather

In these days of the USDA blackout, the soybean market is left to focus on the prospects from U.S. China trade negotiations and South American weather. Of course, this situation would not change much if USDA were back in business as those would remain the key issues, but its final U.S. soybean...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The missing USDA reports due to the government shutdown receive all of the attention, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report is among the missing as well. The last one was issued on 21 December with futures position data of...

Diluted Brinksmanship; Dems Pick Trade Leader; Polite or Duplicitous; Glyphocide

Diluted Brinksmanship Politicians do not usually make unpleasant decisions until and unless they are forced into a corner. That is the whole point of brinkmanship in politics - to force a change in position. However, the two current and most prominent efforts at brinkmanship, the U.S. trade war...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Sharp Correction in Soymeal Inventory With China’s soybean imports down sharply last month versus December 2017, the nationwide estimated soymeal inventory fell substantially last week as sales activity ramped up to prepare for the Chinese New Year. As of 11 January, that invento...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets tried to generate a “Turnaround Tuesday” during the overnight session but struggled to hold on to minor gains. This difficulty was a signal that Tuesday might be a tough day for the markets, and so it was. Markets assume that China has purchased 5 MMT of soybea...

Pick Your Messenger; Markets Judges are (Flawed) People Too; Betrayals All Around; Common Transatlantic Problems

Pick Your Messenger President Trump assured farmers attending the American Farm Bureau annual meeting that the negotiations with China are going great and they will be the beneficiaries. He said a deal is in the offing due to the duties he imposed on Chinese goods. By contrast, U.S. Trade Repre...

soy-oilseeds softs energy

Brainstorming without USDA

It takes something like the current partial shutdown of the U.S. government to make those involved with agricultural markets realize how much we depend on the stream of data from USDA. The regularity of things like export sales reports, livestock reports, and estimates of production, supplies a...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soybean Inspections; China’s Soybean Imports; South American Weather; NOPA Crush

Higher Soybean Inspections Last Week but Not Many for China Yesterday’s USDA export inspections report indicated 1,085,251 MT of soybeans were inspected in the week ending 10 January. That was up 59 percent from 682,029 MT the previous week but down from 1,244,979 MT in the same week of 2...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat and soybean futures were lower overnight, and they stuck to that pattern through the day with soybeans opening with steeper losses. Meanwhile, corn was steady during the night session and finished today fractionally higher after posting 2-3 cent gains in the first half hour. The U.S. gove...

soy-oilseeds

Bearish Soybean Outlook for MY 2019/20

.S. soybean supplies at the end of MY 2019/20 could exceed a record 1 billion bushels. However, the following factors could change that outlook: A steep reduction in U.S. plantings coupled with a yield problem A continuation and worsening of the dry weather across Brazil A quick end to the Chi...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The soybean market remains slow. With China very quiet and Brazil currently cheaper than U.S. Gulf, basis continues to fall. The only movement has been for spot positions with the market turning into a carry structure for January onward. Last week there were rumors of a trade at...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Lower U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks Again in 2019/20

One of the major USDA reports that were supposed to be issued today was the U.S. winter wheat planting estimate. WPI’s own estimate that was discussed last Friday (click here ) includes a 1.9 million acre reduction in those plantings and an 800,000 acre increase in spring wheat plant...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user industry (starch and poultry) asked the government of India (GOI) to allow imports. Prices continued to rise at that time, reaching $266/MT at o...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...

Odd Man Up; Antibiotic Correlations; Half-Truths; Supplying the World

Odd Man Up Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is chairman of the powerful U.S. Senate Finance Committee and is at once mainstream and unpredictable. He has said he disagrees with Donald Trump’s use of the national security (Section 232) rationale for extracting concessions from trading partners, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Bullish Markets Until ……?

Grain and soy futures markets were mostly mired in a pit of bearish mud for the last half of 2018. Years of big U.S. and world crops had resulted in a buildup of stocks to record or near-record levels. Estimated world consumption of corn and wheat seemed to finally catch up with production...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...

Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal; Globalization’s Future

Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal It comes with downsides, but U.S. agriculture continues to be highlighted in a manner that would have been unheard of a few years ago. Analysts would listen keenly for the rare times when a president would make a mere mention of farmers in the annual State of...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Reaches 20-Week High With market data limited last week due to the New Year holiday, there was a lag in reporting. During the two-week information hiatus, China’s estimated soymeal inventory rose to a 20-week high of 1.23 MMT as of 4 January 2019. That was up 28...

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