World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet weather and perhaps the worst flooding across parts of the Corn Belt ever are elevating concerns about a slow start to the corn planting season...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Soybean Refresh

A great deal of proverbial water has passed under the bridge since WPI wrote about our initial soybean outlook for MY 2019/20 on 14 January Not very much has been good for U.S. soybean or soymeal export demand. There is still no trade deal between the U.S. and China, although most analysts beli...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The overnight session continued the recent trend of low trading volume and narrow, mixed price movement. This occurred as traders await developments from next week’s high level trade negotiations in Beijing as well as the 29 March quarterly stocks and initial acreage reports from USDA. Ac...

Policy Opportunities and Risks

Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its seventh “World Happiness Report,” and the OECD issued a first “Risks that Matter” tome. The volumes rely heavily on...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

What Lies Ahead for the Markets?

Grain/soy futures and cash markets have maintained a relatively low price profile for two years or more. Low grain and soy prices have been a major contributor to the low net U.S. farm income during 2017 and 2018. This is not to say that markets have been devoid of price rallies. There have bee...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S.Soy Export Sales; Turkey’s Soy Imports, Russian Soy Trade

U.S. Soy Export Sales Update After weeks of substantial sales, USDA’s weekly export sales report indicated there was a sharp drop for the week ending 14 March. Net soybean export sales totaled only 399,500 MT, a 79 percent decline from the previous week. The largest sales were to Germany...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...

China Enforcement Problems; AI over ASF; African Food Import Dependence

China Enforcement Problems President Trump says the U.S. will keep punitive tariffs on China to ensure it keeps its commitments. USTR Lighthizer reportedly wants to remove them gradually as China demonstrates adoption of the agreement’s obligations. Others say reapplication of the tariffs...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 March 2019 Domestic grain prices decreased in RUB expression but moved in different directions or remained unchanged in USD expression. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price fell $4/MT to $224/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices dropped to $195-198/MT...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Export Trends Year-End USDA Data Shows Trade Winners and Losers Following delays caused by the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, USDA has now managed to update its reports regarding U.S. agricultural exports through the end of 2018. A look at the total figures reveal some surprising find...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns; China Hopeful

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns Today’s joint statement by U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had some good news for American agriculture. Brazil agreed to create a 750 KMT wheat tariff-rate quota (TRQ) with zero duty and follow science-based standards in re...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Chinese Trade Soap Opera and Markets

Having commented so often about U.S.-China trade relations and the ongoing negotiations, we fear we risk boring clients. However, the trade negotiations are reminiscent of the traditional “soap operas” on daytime television in that their stories never end. Every time one crisis is r...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: African Swine Fever and Soy Demand; Argentine Soybean Sales; Bolivian Drought

Global Soy Demand May Take Big Hit from African Swine Fever The widespread outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) is now well known, and it continues unabated in China even though controlling the disease has been made a top priority there. The Chinese government has officially indicated that the...

livestock

Big Trouble in Big China

Not a WPI client? Please email Matt at mherrington@agrilink.com or subscribe to Ag Perspectives: International or Ag Perspectives: All Access to acccess this and other insightful analysis from WPI!  The African Swine Fever outbreak in China is far from contained and its...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...

feed-grains

March Corn Update

There have been changes to the 2018/19 corn balance sheet since our first look at the potential supply/demand outlook on 18 January. USDA reduced the export and ethanol forecasts by 75 million bushels and 25 million bushels, respectively, in the March WASDE. The result was a 100 million bushel...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...

Against the Grain; Bipartisan Horses; China and EU Deals

Against the Grain Demographics are destiny, and with 60 percent of the world’s population and some of its fastest-growing economies, this is supposed to be the Asian Century. That is the theme of the book “The Future is Asian” by Singaporean geopolitical consultant Parag Khann...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil is always in the details, which won’t be known until the deal is made public. Much of the commentary on various business channels toda...

Trump’s China Mystery; The EU Bullseye; SOEs in Focus

Trump’s China Mystery U.S. President Donald’s Trump’s characterization of his negotiations with the Chinese are not adding up unless Xi’s government is having troubles. He has softened his strategy, and the Chinese are playing nice. He is as unconventional as ever. Mr. T...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...

livestock

China Pork Purchase and Trade Deal Outlook; Big Pork Supplies Pressure Hog Prices

China Buys Pork amid Outlook for Bigger Trade Agreement While the U.S.-China trade talks continue, the most recent weekly export sales report from USDA shows that China was back in the market for U.S. pork for the week that ended 7 March.Net pork sales totaled 50,300 MMT with 47 percent (23,800...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet weather and perhaps the worst flooding across parts of the Corn Belt ever are elevating concerns about a slow start to the corn planting season...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Soybean Refresh

A great deal of proverbial water has passed under the bridge since WPI wrote about our initial soybean outlook for MY 2019/20 on 14 January Not very much has been good for U.S. soybean or soymeal export demand. There is still no trade deal between the U.S. and China, although most analysts beli...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The overnight session continued the recent trend of low trading volume and narrow, mixed price movement. This occurred as traders await developments from next week’s high level trade negotiations in Beijing as well as the 29 March quarterly stocks and initial acreage reports from USDA. Ac...

Policy Opportunities and Risks

Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its seventh “World Happiness Report,” and the OECD issued a first “Risks that Matter” tome. The volumes rely heavily on...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

What Lies Ahead for the Markets?

Grain/soy futures and cash markets have maintained a relatively low price profile for two years or more. Low grain and soy prices have been a major contributor to the low net U.S. farm income during 2017 and 2018. This is not to say that markets have been devoid of price rallies. There have bee...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S.Soy Export Sales; Turkey’s Soy Imports, Russian Soy Trade

U.S. Soy Export Sales Update After weeks of substantial sales, USDA’s weekly export sales report indicated there was a sharp drop for the week ending 14 March. Net soybean export sales totaled only 399,500 MT, a 79 percent decline from the previous week. The largest sales were to Germany...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...

China Enforcement Problems; AI over ASF; African Food Import Dependence

China Enforcement Problems President Trump says the U.S. will keep punitive tariffs on China to ensure it keeps its commitments. USTR Lighthizer reportedly wants to remove them gradually as China demonstrates adoption of the agreement’s obligations. Others say reapplication of the tariffs...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 March 2019 Domestic grain prices decreased in RUB expression but moved in different directions or remained unchanged in USD expression. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price fell $4/MT to $224/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices dropped to $195-198/MT...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Export Trends Year-End USDA Data Shows Trade Winners and Losers Following delays caused by the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, USDA has now managed to update its reports regarding U.S. agricultural exports through the end of 2018. A look at the total figures reveal some surprising find...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns; China Hopeful

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns Today’s joint statement by U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had some good news for American agriculture. Brazil agreed to create a 750 KMT wheat tariff-rate quota (TRQ) with zero duty and follow science-based standards in re...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Chinese Trade Soap Opera and Markets

Having commented so often about U.S.-China trade relations and the ongoing negotiations, we fear we risk boring clients. However, the trade negotiations are reminiscent of the traditional “soap operas” on daytime television in that their stories never end. Every time one crisis is r...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: African Swine Fever and Soy Demand; Argentine Soybean Sales; Bolivian Drought

Global Soy Demand May Take Big Hit from African Swine Fever The widespread outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) is now well known, and it continues unabated in China even though controlling the disease has been made a top priority there. The Chinese government has officially indicated that the...

livestock

Big Trouble in Big China

Not a WPI client? Please email Matt at mherrington@agrilink.com or subscribe to Ag Perspectives: International or Ag Perspectives: All Access to acccess this and other insightful analysis from WPI!  The African Swine Fever outbreak in China is far from contained and its...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...

feed-grains

March Corn Update

There have been changes to the 2018/19 corn balance sheet since our first look at the potential supply/demand outlook on 18 January. USDA reduced the export and ethanol forecasts by 75 million bushels and 25 million bushels, respectively, in the March WASDE. The result was a 100 million bushel...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...

Against the Grain; Bipartisan Horses; China and EU Deals

Against the Grain Demographics are destiny, and with 60 percent of the world’s population and some of its fastest-growing economies, this is supposed to be the Asian Century. That is the theme of the book “The Future is Asian” by Singaporean geopolitical consultant Parag Khann...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil is always in the details, which won’t be known until the deal is made public. Much of the commentary on various business channels toda...

Trump’s China Mystery; The EU Bullseye; SOEs in Focus

Trump’s China Mystery U.S. President Donald’s Trump’s characterization of his negotiations with the Chinese are not adding up unless Xi’s government is having troubles. He has softened his strategy, and the Chinese are playing nice. He is as unconventional as ever. Mr. T...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...

livestock

China Pork Purchase and Trade Deal Outlook; Big Pork Supplies Pressure Hog Prices

China Buys Pork amid Outlook for Bigger Trade Agreement While the U.S.-China trade talks continue, the most recent weekly export sales report from USDA shows that China was back in the market for U.S. pork for the week that ended 7 March.Net pork sales totaled 50,300 MMT with 47 percent (23,800...

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