World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

Legs of War; No Cigar

Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful but not definitive. Both sides are dug in deep and short of one side or the other (or both). As it incurs economic calamity, this war would...

equities

News Impacts on Commodity Volatility

Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...

Is the Immigration-Tariff Deal with Mexico a Template for China Breakthrough?

There is a great deal of speculation on whether Presidents Trump and Xi will actually meetand/or come to a deal at the G20 Summit in Osaka on 28 and 29 June. Much of the rhetoric from the U.S. side has continued to take a tough stance in trade talks with China. However, it is now more than a ye...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The weather-driven rally in CBOT soybeans has left Brazilian basis steadily weaker. It dropped 10 cents/bushels last week, especially for nearby positions, on slight Chinese demand. Despite the CBOT’s rally, Dalian soymeal and soyoil futures are steady/lower, reducing crus...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...

Good/Bad Trade War; Government Procurement Challenge; POTUS Contender and Commodity Outlook

Good/Bad Trade War Political analysts correctly note how the Trump trade war has “scrambled” the politics in both major political parties. Politicians do not like to be wrong, and so the most common refrain is that Mr. Trump could have used a different course to address China’...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Beef

At the recent Southern Association of State Departments of Agriculture (SASDA) meeting in Fort Worth, the counsel general of the Chinese Consulate in Houston, Li Qiangmin, addressed the current state of U.S.-China trade relations. He said that if they normalize, China will be a strong customer...

Cold War II; Varying Farm Policy Models

Cold War II In a sign that President Trump is not going to be able to leverage a trade agreement out of China, Beijing issued notice that it will not yield to U.S. demands even with maximum pressure from Washington. This is the strength of a Marxist economy, and it is perhaps helped by a fallin...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: PNW Soybeans; Damage to U.S. Soy Industry; U.S. Soy Export Sales

High Mississippi Barge Rates Make PNW Soy Shipments a Bargain Normally, cash prices for soybeans are about $0.50/bushel ($18.40/MT) higher at export elevators in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) than at those located along the Mississippi River. However, the premium has dropped to no more than aroun...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Uncertainty Reigns

Despite the plethora of new data sources such as crop tours, field surveys, satellite imagery and the numerous forecasts they support, there is still great uncertainty about the global crop supply. The influential combination of climate change and genetics presents enough doubts about the real...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 June 2019 Prices on the domestic market continued to either decrease moderately or remain stable in RUB expression. Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) rose slightly in their bottom segment to $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, while that average price...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Up as Crushing Activity Increases With feed demand continuing to show solid improvement through the first full week of June, soybean crushers have steadily ramped up activity. Last week China’s estimated soymeal inventory had its largest gain this year, rising 9...

Ag Supports Trump Trade Policy; Contrasting Approaches to Moving

Ag Supports Trump Trade Policy The persistent question is, when will American agriculture stop supporting Trump trade policy given its deleterious impacts on the sector? The answer remains unknown, and today’s congressional hearing on the topic proved there is still a political understand...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA Reported: 2018/19 reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, and higher soybean oil ending stocks.  The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...

wheat feed-grains

SOEs Rule

The U.S. grain trade business has been largely dominated by privately-owned companies for the past several decades. Their efficiency at the business is demonstrated by their success over the years replacing government entities at the task, including succeeding the grain boards in Canada and Aus...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA Reported: 2018/19 increased soybean meal imports and exports. The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 per short ton, up 5 dollars...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA Reported:  This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 include higher beginning and ending stocks.  Beginning stocks are raised reflecting a 75-million-bushel reduction in projected exports for 2018/19 based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and a...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA Reported:  This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for increased beginning stocks and imports, sharply lower production, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks.  Beginning stocks are up reflecting a 100-million-bushel decline in projected exp...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Reported: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production.  Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased 2018/19 exports.  Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million with an i...

More Tariff Threats but Progress; Subsidizing Fake News; Ethanol Supply Destruction

More Tariff Threats but Progress Fresh off his claim of successfully coercing Mexico via tariff threats into greater responsibility for the immigration mess, President Trump returned his focus today to China. Likely discouraged by skepticism expressed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that C...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The market was quiet last week as the Chinese were not actively buying and instead waited for basis to fall after rising for the past several weeks. It was further slowed by the lack of selling by Brazilian farmers. Their selling interest was quelled by the real’s recent r...

More Tariffs Please; Food Tribalism and Consumer Contradictions

More Tariffs Please The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its analysis that concluded the Trump tariffs on China have had very little adverse impact on that country. It credits the stimulus measures introduced by Beijing as a successful counteraction. However, IMF Deputy Director for A...

Legs of War; No Cigar

Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful but not definitive. Both sides are dug in deep and short of one side or the other (or both). As it incurs economic calamity, this war would...

equities

News Impacts on Commodity Volatility

Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...

Is the Immigration-Tariff Deal with Mexico a Template for China Breakthrough?

There is a great deal of speculation on whether Presidents Trump and Xi will actually meetand/or come to a deal at the G20 Summit in Osaka on 28 and 29 June. Much of the rhetoric from the U.S. side has continued to take a tough stance in trade talks with China. However, it is now more than a ye...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The weather-driven rally in CBOT soybeans has left Brazilian basis steadily weaker. It dropped 10 cents/bushels last week, especially for nearby positions, on slight Chinese demand. Despite the CBOT’s rally, Dalian soymeal and soyoil futures are steady/lower, reducing crus...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...

Good/Bad Trade War; Government Procurement Challenge; POTUS Contender and Commodity Outlook

Good/Bad Trade War Political analysts correctly note how the Trump trade war has “scrambled” the politics in both major political parties. Politicians do not like to be wrong, and so the most common refrain is that Mr. Trump could have used a different course to address China’...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: China and U.S. Beef

At the recent Southern Association of State Departments of Agriculture (SASDA) meeting in Fort Worth, the counsel general of the Chinese Consulate in Houston, Li Qiangmin, addressed the current state of U.S.-China trade relations. He said that if they normalize, China will be a strong customer...

Cold War II; Varying Farm Policy Models

Cold War II In a sign that President Trump is not going to be able to leverage a trade agreement out of China, Beijing issued notice that it will not yield to U.S. demands even with maximum pressure from Washington. This is the strength of a Marxist economy, and it is perhaps helped by a fallin...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: PNW Soybeans; Damage to U.S. Soy Industry; U.S. Soy Export Sales

High Mississippi Barge Rates Make PNW Soy Shipments a Bargain Normally, cash prices for soybeans are about $0.50/bushel ($18.40/MT) higher at export elevators in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) than at those located along the Mississippi River. However, the premium has dropped to no more than aroun...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Uncertainty Reigns

Despite the plethora of new data sources such as crop tours, field surveys, satellite imagery and the numerous forecasts they support, there is still great uncertainty about the global crop supply. The influential combination of climate change and genetics presents enough doubts about the real...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 3-7 June 2019 Prices on the domestic market continued to either decrease moderately or remain stable in RUB expression. Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) rose slightly in their bottom segment to $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, while that average price...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Oilseeds Soymeal Inventory Up as Crushing Activity Increases With feed demand continuing to show solid improvement through the first full week of June, soybean crushers have steadily ramped up activity. Last week China’s estimated soymeal inventory had its largest gain this year, rising 9...

Ag Supports Trump Trade Policy; Contrasting Approaches to Moving

Ag Supports Trump Trade Policy The persistent question is, when will American agriculture stop supporting Trump trade policy given its deleterious impacts on the sector? The answer remains unknown, and today’s congressional hearing on the topic proved there is still a political understand...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA Reported: 2018/19 reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, and higher soybean oil ending stocks.  The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...

wheat feed-grains

SOEs Rule

The U.S. grain trade business has been largely dominated by privately-owned companies for the past several decades. Their efficiency at the business is demonstrated by their success over the years replacing government entities at the task, including succeeding the grain boards in Canada and Aus...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA Reported: 2018/19 increased soybean meal imports and exports. The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 per short ton, up 5 dollars...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA Reported:  This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2019/20 include higher beginning and ending stocks.  Beginning stocks are raised reflecting a 75-million-bushel reduction in projected exports for 2018/19 based on lower-than-expected shipments in May and a...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA Reported:  This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for increased beginning stocks and imports, sharply lower production, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks.  Beginning stocks are up reflecting a 100-million-bushel decline in projected exp...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Reported: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production.  Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased 2018/19 exports.  Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million with an i...

More Tariff Threats but Progress; Subsidizing Fake News; Ethanol Supply Destruction

More Tariff Threats but Progress Fresh off his claim of successfully coercing Mexico via tariff threats into greater responsibility for the immigration mess, President Trump returned his focus today to China. Likely discouraged by skepticism expressed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that C...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Brazil The market was quiet last week as the Chinese were not actively buying and instead waited for basis to fall after rising for the past several weeks. It was further slowed by the lack of selling by Brazilian farmers. Their selling interest was quelled by the real’s recent r...

More Tariffs Please; Food Tribalism and Consumer Contradictions

More Tariffs Please The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its analysis that concluded the Trump tariffs on China have had very little adverse impact on that country. It credits the stimulus measures introduced by Beijing as a successful counteraction. However, IMF Deputy Director for A...

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