World Perspectives

Recent Europe Analysis

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA raised U.S. soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20.  With projections for exports unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean production is at 4.14 billion bushels, up 10 million on increased harvested area.  Harvested area, forecast at 83.0 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.2 million from last month.  The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 49.8 bu...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

Future Ag Policy; English Accent

Future Ag Policy Presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden released his Build Back Better economic agenda and while it ignores some progressive demands such as a Green New Deal, it is still Trumpish in that it holds a “Buy America” focus. It would use federal procureme...

wheat

Wheat Market Tightening

The wheat market is tightening as production cuts are hitting France, Russia and Ukraine, plus there has been an increase in tenders. Exports by France are expected to be 7.75 MMT, a 43 percent reduction from 2019/20. Meanwhile, Russia's IKAR reduced its estimate for the Russian wheat crop by 1...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 8 July)

Freight Comments for 2 July 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Capesize dry-bulk vessels must be using rocket fuel in place of VLSFO as that market continued to skyrocket this week. Capesize owners and sellers felt embolden by the tight supply of available vessels in the Atlantic, an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a defensive note Tuesday with generally favorable/steady crop conditions ratings for key corn/soy producing states reducing the need for a weather premium. Corn and soybeans walked back to test key support points, which is often typical after a sharp rally. The wheat market p...

The Price Ain’t Right; Food Standards Fraud; Opportunity Strikes

The Price Ain’t Right German Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner thinks the problem is inexpensive meat. She told Reuters that, “Meat is too cheap. Lurid advertising with low prices for meat does not fit with appreciation and sustainability…This is no longer acceptable.&rdqu...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 7 July)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 2 July 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Capesize dry-bulk vessels must be using rocket fuel in place of VLSFO as that market continued to skyrocket this week. Capesize owners and sellers felt embolden by the tight supply of available vessels in...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Egypt and Pakistan are working on the possibility of Egypt importing meat and dairy products. Reports say that work is being done on revising health certificates and developing veterinary protocols to make this possible. The poultry...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a firm note with a long holiday weekend filled with dry weather for most of the U.S. offering support. This week’s forecast was initially supportive, with hot/dry weather forecast for the major crop-growing regions, though afternoon model runs turned wetter for the last...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The June shift from dry to wet weather patterns for Europe’s crop-growing regions have substantially boosted crop conditions. At the start of June, USDA’s NDVI mapping showed most of the French, German, UK, and western Black Sea crops in below-average condition...

Food Sovereignty at the Top; Recoupling EU Ag; Farm Bill 2023

Food Sovereignty at the Top EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski thinks free trade and specialization are the problems in modern agriculture. He told a conference that “Agrodiversity is very important and we will support farmers who decide not to have one direction of producti...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Exports; EU Soy Imports; U.S. Minor Oilseeds; China Soy Stocks

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed the week ending 25 June was a very disappointing one for exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal and soyoil, at least for MY 2019/20. However, sales of soybeans for export in 2020/21 were a bit more positive. Net sales o...

Pessimism Reigns

Global rules for liberalized trade such as the Uruguay Round depended upon strong U.S. leadership backed by the EU. The number of countercurrents to any return to that model are now overwhelming. China has mimicked the U.S. in using economic hostage taking to leverage more nativistic outcomes...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...

Coming UK-U.S. Trade War

British farmers are increasingly distraught over the prospect of having to compete against American farmers under any transatlantic trade deal. They and the British public are being fed a steady stream of harrowing stories about U.S. production practices to the point that now Trade Secretary Li...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT continued its weaker trend Friday with funds again emerging as net sellers and any longs liquidating their positions. Corn and wheat futures posted new contract lows while soybeans retained slightly better technical strength on news of exports to China. The bearish Hogs and Pigs report...

Buying Food; Ethanol and Emissions; Food System and China Buys

Buying Food USDA is forecasting that grocery prices will rise by 3 percent this year, the largest increase since 2011 and mostly due to animal proteins. That is more than three times the overall inflation rate. Five economists from four different universities analyzed household spending in resp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - June 2020

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The day started out negative, supposedly over increased COVID-19 cases but the situation is more complicated. This ignores other demand destroyers like economic recession, increased populism and protectionism, and trade tensions with China. Most importantly, it ignores supply makers like the cu...

British Stockholm Syndrome; Imbalanced COVID Policies

British Stockholm Syndrome The UK announced a “bounce back” plan to recapture post-Brexit export share for the country’s farmers. It involves trade agreements with Japan, the U.S., and other countries. However, the British have adopted a European attitude towards food policy a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Corn Imports Grow

Global corn imports continue to expand but increases by Vietnam and the EU standout. Mexico remains a major market, but imports are growing at roughly the same rate as the world as a whole, around five percent per year. By contrast, over the past decade Vietnam’s corn imports have grown 1...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA raised U.S. soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20.  With projections for exports unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean production is at 4.14 billion bushels, up 10 million on increased harvested area.  Harvested area, forecast at 83.0 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.2 million from last month.  The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 49.8 bu...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

Future Ag Policy; English Accent

Future Ag Policy Presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden released his Build Back Better economic agenda and while it ignores some progressive demands such as a Green New Deal, it is still Trumpish in that it holds a “Buy America” focus. It would use federal procureme...

wheat

Wheat Market Tightening

The wheat market is tightening as production cuts are hitting France, Russia and Ukraine, plus there has been an increase in tenders. Exports by France are expected to be 7.75 MMT, a 43 percent reduction from 2019/20. Meanwhile, Russia's IKAR reduced its estimate for the Russian wheat crop by 1...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 8 July)

Freight Comments for 2 July 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Capesize dry-bulk vessels must be using rocket fuel in place of VLSFO as that market continued to skyrocket this week. Capesize owners and sellers felt embolden by the tight supply of available vessels in the Atlantic, an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a defensive note Tuesday with generally favorable/steady crop conditions ratings for key corn/soy producing states reducing the need for a weather premium. Corn and soybeans walked back to test key support points, which is often typical after a sharp rally. The wheat market p...

The Price Ain’t Right; Food Standards Fraud; Opportunity Strikes

The Price Ain’t Right German Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner thinks the problem is inexpensive meat. She told Reuters that, “Meat is too cheap. Lurid advertising with low prices for meat does not fit with appreciation and sustainability…This is no longer acceptable.&rdqu...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 7 July)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 2 July 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Capesize dry-bulk vessels must be using rocket fuel in place of VLSFO as that market continued to skyrocket this week. Capesize owners and sellers felt embolden by the tight supply of available vessels in...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  Egypt and Pakistan are working on the possibility of Egypt importing meat and dairy products. Reports say that work is being done on revising health certificates and developing veterinary protocols to make this possible. The poultry...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on a firm note with a long holiday weekend filled with dry weather for most of the U.S. offering support. This week’s forecast was initially supportive, with hot/dry weather forecast for the major crop-growing regions, though afternoon model runs turned wetter for the last...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The June shift from dry to wet weather patterns for Europe’s crop-growing regions have substantially boosted crop conditions. At the start of June, USDA’s NDVI mapping showed most of the French, German, UK, and western Black Sea crops in below-average condition...

Food Sovereignty at the Top; Recoupling EU Ag; Farm Bill 2023

Food Sovereignty at the Top EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski thinks free trade and specialization are the problems in modern agriculture. He told a conference that “Agrodiversity is very important and we will support farmers who decide not to have one direction of producti...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Exports; EU Soy Imports; U.S. Minor Oilseeds; China Soy Stocks

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed the week ending 25 June was a very disappointing one for exporters of U.S. soybeans, soymeal and soyoil, at least for MY 2019/20. However, sales of soybeans for export in 2020/21 were a bit more positive. Net sales o...

Pessimism Reigns

Global rules for liberalized trade such as the Uruguay Round depended upon strong U.S. leadership backed by the EU. The number of countercurrents to any return to that model are now overwhelming. China has mimicked the U.S. in using economic hostage taking to leverage more nativistic outcomes...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note: the CBOT will close early at 13:05 ET on Thursday, 2 July and re-open the evening of Sunday, 5 July. The CBOT continued to rally Wednesday with funds aggressively covering their massive short position in corn while extending length in soybeans. Trading volumes were heavy – but not t...

Coming UK-U.S. Trade War

British farmers are increasingly distraught over the prospect of having to compete against American farmers under any transatlantic trade deal. They and the British public are being fed a steady stream of harrowing stories about U.S. production practices to the point that now Trade Secretary Li...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT continued its weaker trend Friday with funds again emerging as net sellers and any longs liquidating their positions. Corn and wheat futures posted new contract lows while soybeans retained slightly better technical strength on news of exports to China. The bearish Hogs and Pigs report...

Buying Food; Ethanol and Emissions; Food System and China Buys

Buying Food USDA is forecasting that grocery prices will rise by 3 percent this year, the largest increase since 2011 and mostly due to animal proteins. That is more than three times the overall inflation rate. Five economists from four different universities analyzed household spending in resp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - June 2020

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy developments. This issue looks at the relationship between unemployment and food costs, the future of ethanol, the impact of tensions with China, the Trump trade policy, Mercosur developments and much more. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The day started out negative, supposedly over increased COVID-19 cases but the situation is more complicated. This ignores other demand destroyers like economic recession, increased populism and protectionism, and trade tensions with China. Most importantly, it ignores supply makers like the cu...

British Stockholm Syndrome; Imbalanced COVID Policies

British Stockholm Syndrome The UK announced a “bounce back” plan to recapture post-Brexit export share for the country’s farmers. It involves trade agreements with Japan, the U.S., and other countries. However, the British have adopted a European attitude towards food policy a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Corn Imports Grow

Global corn imports continue to expand but increases by Vietnam and the EU standout. Mexico remains a major market, but imports are growing at roughly the same rate as the world as a whole, around five percent per year. By contrast, over the past decade Vietnam’s corn imports have grown 1...

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