FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s winter crop planting effort is 11 percent complete with 585.6 thousand hectares seeded so far. Overnight, Russia launched another missile attack on Ukraine’s Odesa region, which damaged several near-port granaries and the under-construction...
Africa Rising; Farm Bill Split; Bulgaria as Exporter
Africa Rising Notably, the Africa Group at the WTO has asked for policy space to develop its industrial sector. Historically, the focus has been on agriculture. This redirection conforms with the development that has occurred elsewhere, with the industrial sector rising and reducing the need to...
Skewing Farm Output; Pausing Farm to Fork
Skewing Farm Output The activist group Farm Action is usually slaying mythical creatures like Big Ag or the $750 million checkoff programs used by farm organizations to promote research and marketing. Their typical paean is the small farmer, but their latest focus is farm program structure and...
CBAMing Meat; Ukraine Grain on the Brink
CBAMing Meat The EU is scheduled to soon publish a revised animal welfare directive that could impact suppliers in other countries. Much the way Brussels fussing over phone charging cords forced a USB-C standard globally, the impending animal welfare standards may have less to do with science t...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal p...
WASDE Corn
USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged. The result is ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel. Foreig...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
Minor Reserves
Norway will reportedly begin spending $6 million/year through the end of the decade to purchase 15,000 MT grain each year for a strategic reserve. Although the grain is not specified, it will presumably involve wheat since that is the primary food grain consumed by Norway’s 5.4 million pe...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Insurance companies involved in offering policies for Russian oil traversing the Black Sea have increased premiums by 1 percent to 1.2-1.25 percent in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian vessels. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture said that the &...
BRICS Differ; EU Agriculture Policy Update
BRICS Differ In the adjacent article on BRICS Dominate, it is noted how the five key countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting this week in South Africa stand out in terms of global agriculture. However, they are also different from a policy standpoint. Researchers at the U...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Pressure in the American futures markets continued to drive world wheat values lower last week, with the exception for Friday’s short-covering rally. Additionally, concerns over the Chinese economy helped pressure wheat prices, despite ongoing worries about the conflic...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Moldova’s corn production for 2023 will triple in size from the prior year and reach 2.1 MMT, according to government estimates. The country’s sunflower seed crop is projected at 622 KMT. Milling Wheat World wheat values were mostly mixed last week wi...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased their estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook beginning stocks by 55 million bushels. However, the estimate for total supply declined more than use and that caused ending stocks to decline by 60 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
European Market Analysis
Regional News India is reportedly considering importing as much as 9 MMT of wheat from Russia to fill its domestic needs, but WPI sources continue to suggest the actual figure is likely to be 4-5 MMT. The Ukrainian Grain Association increased its forecast of the country’s grai...
Ukraine Exports and EU Policy; Targeting Brazil
Ukraine Exports and EU Policy Russia is not just attacking Ukraine’s ability to export grains but may be threatening EU member states on the eastern periphery. Drone strikes on the port of Reni occurred a few hundred yards across the Danube from NATO member Romania. The UK is warning that...
Too Good to be True
A second impact analysis on the EU’s Green Deal targets for agriculture has now been reviewed and still the policy is hung up as policymakers debate its future. Like the first go-around, EU analysts insist that a 20 percent reduction in fertilizer use, cutting pesticide use in half and se...
Black and White; Careful What You Ask
Black and White The European Food Safety Authority concluded after extensive research on the herbicide glyphosate that no “areas of critical concern” were found when it comes to potential harmful impacts of using the substance in plant protection. German Green Agriculture Minister C...
European Market Analysis
Regional News As noted everywhere, the biggest news in European regional grain markets this week is the end of the Black Sea grain export initiative and Russia’s subsequent aggressive attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. The attacks, combined with insurers declaring the area...
Third Way Sought
Economists are debating the current geopolitical hand that has been dealt, and how best to play it. President Biden has made a major shift toward government directed self-sufficiency in critical minerals, automation, and decarbonation where validity gets hotly debate. At the same time, he has e...
European Market Analysis
Regional News All eyes are on the Black Sea grain export deal, which is set to expire today, 17 July. Russia refused to extend the agreement early Monday and, as of this writing, there has been no further news of talks or negotiations. For all practical purposes, the deal can be con...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 29 September)
Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting FFA paper traders managed to move dry-bulk futures markets slightly higher for the week, but physical markets were not ready to follow their lead. Physical markets were happy to remain steady and mostly unchanged for...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 29 September)
Editor's note: due to changes in the coding for the Shiny platform upon which this app is built, the tables of freight rates are temporarily unavailable. We expect to have the tables re-coded soon. Ocean Freight Comments - 28 September 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: FFA paper traders...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Ukraine’s winter crop planting effort is 11 percent complete with 585.6 thousand hectares seeded so far. Overnight, Russia launched another missile attack on Ukraine’s Odesa region, which damaged several near-port granaries and the under-construction...
Africa Rising; Farm Bill Split; Bulgaria as Exporter
Africa Rising Notably, the Africa Group at the WTO has asked for policy space to develop its industrial sector. Historically, the focus has been on agriculture. This redirection conforms with the development that has occurred elsewhere, with the industrial sector rising and reducing the need to...
Skewing Farm Output; Pausing Farm to Fork
Skewing Farm Output The activist group Farm Action is usually slaying mythical creatures like Big Ag or the $750 million checkoff programs used by farm organizations to promote research and marketing. Their typical paean is the small farmer, but their latest focus is farm program structure and...
CBAMing Meat; Ukraine Grain on the Brink
CBAMing Meat The EU is scheduled to soon publish a revised animal welfare directive that could impact suppliers in other countries. Much the way Brussels fussing over phone charging cords forced a USB-C standard globally, the impending animal welfare standards may have less to do with science t...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced U.S. soybean stocks for 2023/24 to 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons to 119.2 million. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal p...
WASDE Corn
USDA made slight increases in U.S. corn for 2023/24 - U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and use unchanged. The result is ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by farmers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel. Foreig...
WASDE Wheat
USDA made no changes in total U.S. wheat for 2023/24. Global supplies are projected to decline 7.2 million tons to 1,054.5 million, primarily on lower production for Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the EU, which is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. World ending stocks are r...
Minor Reserves
Norway will reportedly begin spending $6 million/year through the end of the decade to purchase 15,000 MT grain each year for a strategic reserve. Although the grain is not specified, it will presumably involve wheat since that is the primary food grain consumed by Norway’s 5.4 million pe...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Insurance companies involved in offering policies for Russian oil traversing the Black Sea have increased premiums by 1 percent to 1.2-1.25 percent in response to Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian vessels. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agriculture said that the &...
BRICS Differ; EU Agriculture Policy Update
BRICS Differ In the adjacent article on BRICS Dominate, it is noted how the five key countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meeting this week in South Africa stand out in terms of global agriculture. However, they are also different from a policy standpoint. Researchers at the U...
European Market Analysis
Milling Wheat Pressure in the American futures markets continued to drive world wheat values lower last week, with the exception for Friday’s short-covering rally. Additionally, concerns over the Chinese economy helped pressure wheat prices, despite ongoing worries about the conflic...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Moldova’s corn production for 2023 will triple in size from the prior year and reach 2.1 MMT, according to government estimates. The country’s sunflower seed crop is projected at 622 KMT. Milling Wheat World wheat values were mostly mixed last week wi...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks to 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased their estimate for 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook beginning stocks by 55 million bushels. However, the estimate for total supply declined more than use and that caused ending stocks to decline by 60 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced their estimate for U.S. wheat production to 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all-wheat yield is 45.8 bushels per acre, d...
European Market Analysis
Regional News India is reportedly considering importing as much as 9 MMT of wheat from Russia to fill its domestic needs, but WPI sources continue to suggest the actual figure is likely to be 4-5 MMT. The Ukrainian Grain Association increased its forecast of the country’s grai...
Ukraine Exports and EU Policy; Targeting Brazil
Ukraine Exports and EU Policy Russia is not just attacking Ukraine’s ability to export grains but may be threatening EU member states on the eastern periphery. Drone strikes on the port of Reni occurred a few hundred yards across the Danube from NATO member Romania. The UK is warning that...
Too Good to be True
A second impact analysis on the EU’s Green Deal targets for agriculture has now been reviewed and still the policy is hung up as policymakers debate its future. Like the first go-around, EU analysts insist that a 20 percent reduction in fertilizer use, cutting pesticide use in half and se...
Black and White; Careful What You Ask
Black and White The European Food Safety Authority concluded after extensive research on the herbicide glyphosate that no “areas of critical concern” were found when it comes to potential harmful impacts of using the substance in plant protection. German Green Agriculture Minister C...
European Market Analysis
Regional News As noted everywhere, the biggest news in European regional grain markets this week is the end of the Black Sea grain export initiative and Russia’s subsequent aggressive attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. The attacks, combined with insurers declaring the area...
Third Way Sought
Economists are debating the current geopolitical hand that has been dealt, and how best to play it. President Biden has made a major shift toward government directed self-sufficiency in critical minerals, automation, and decarbonation where validity gets hotly debate. At the same time, he has e...
European Market Analysis
Regional News All eyes are on the Black Sea grain export deal, which is set to expire today, 17 July. Russia refused to extend the agreement early Monday and, as of this writing, there has been no further news of talks or negotiations. For all practical purposes, the deal can be con...