World Perspectives

Recent Europe Analysis

ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act

ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...

Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle

Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberalized trade. She called for settling the current bilateral disputes like Airbus/Boeing, plus working together on WTO reforms and China. That ma...

Revolutionizing EU Agriculture; Squander Leverage/Solicit Good Will

Revolutionizing EU Agriculture The European Public Heath Alliance says agricultural support and promotion should end its focus on competitiveness and instead align with the health and sustainability goals of the Farm to Fork and European Green Deal initiatives. If adopted, this will upset the e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Weather patterns across much of Europe and the Black Sea remain lodged in a hot, dry trend causing likely delays and reductions in winter crop planted areas. The EU Commission noted that “severe drought conditions” exist across eastern Romania, eastern Bulga...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

The soybean meal price is projected at $315 per short ton, up 25 dollars. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

USDA Adjusts Stocks

Today’s September WASDE report reflects important adjustments in the projected ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Overall, global stocks of soybeans and wheat were increased while that of corn fell. But the larger changes can be attributed to just a handful of countries. Though...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Big Bets on Tomorrow

The market is frothy. Tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report could affirm today’s relatively bullish sentiment, or it could break it on fundamentals. The question is whether USDA’s corrections in yield, production and stocks go as far as current guesses. In all likelihood, there will be...

Transatlantic Protectionism III; Data Wars; Currency Wars

Transatlantic Protectionism III The EU issued its “Strategic Foresight” report and it lays the groundwork for potentially more protectionism. It declares Europe’s “economic sovereignty is at stake” due to imports from non-EU countries. It calls for new tools to pre...

Faded Green Wave; Better Answer than Decoupling

Faded Green Wave While politicians on both sides of the Atlantic boast of bold plans for environmental protection, executing their initiatives is proving more difficult. A desired ban on neonicotinoid use in Europe is proving difficult where the rubber meets the road on the farm. Biotechnology...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Share Implications

U.S. agricultural imports have been rising at a 6.42 percent annual rate over the past 25 years. Mostly due to duty-free goods under NAFTA, but also from Europe. By contrast, U.S. export market share for its major bulk commodities has been declining. There are many reasons for the latter, inclu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Firms Heading Into Long Weekend

CBOT ag markets were mostly higher as traders added risk premia to corn and soybeans heading into what looks like a dry weekend for the Corn Belt. Wheat futures traded lower in lackluster trade but broke technical support levels, setting up potential for lower trade early next week. Soymeal con...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies While Wheat Takes a Break; Feeder Cattle are Overpriced

Yesterday’s CBOT trends were reversed with the soy complex moving higher while wheat traded a steady, lackluster day. Corn and soybeans started the day weaker, but afternoon rumors of export business pushed the soy market higher. Funds are thought to have purchased some 7,500 contracts of...

Notable Changes in U.S. Agricultural Trade

In the year of COVID, it is difficult to assign precise reasons for changes in trade flows but following are some observations about U.S. agricultural trade in the year to date:  U.S. exports to India have taken the largest fall, but Bangladesh next door has seen the largest increase.&nb...

Responding to Trump Protectionism; Scary Sounding Protections

Responding to Trump Protectionism European farm ministers answered Donald Trump’s “protectionism” with, well more protectionism. German Farm Minister Julia Klöckner summarized the ministers CAP reform discussions this week by saying, “We need greater European autono...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies; Corn and Soybeans Look for Direction

The CBOT opened higher with support coming from USDA daily “flash” export sales announcements. Corn and soybeans started to weaken by mid-morning, however, and finished the day with a relatively lackluster performance. Wheat, on the other hand, posted another day of double-digit gai...

China Acquiescence; Selective Analysis

China Acquiescence Jeffrey Gerrish, the former deputy USTR for the Trump Administration is now back at his old law firm Skadden Arps and has little reason to carry water for his former employer. Therefore, it is with some greater credibility when he says most of the technical level issues prese...

Demanding Food Shortages

As Europe transitions to a low carbon economy amid COVID-related disruptions, there are rising concerns about developing shortages of basic materials. The same could happen to food if activists get their way in rewriting the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). While U.S. presidential contenders D...

Aid and Trade in the COVID Election Season

Initial unemployment claims topped 1 million for the second week in a row after previously declining below that psychological line. Total initial claims were 1,006,000, which was still almost 9 percent lower than the week before but not as good as had been hoped for a couple of weeks ago. This...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...

Glyphosate on Steroids; Exceptional Food; In the Year 2525

Glyphosate on Steroids It only takes emotive-based fear to elicit demands for glyphosate to be banned so at least there is a fact-based rationale for COVID-19 restrictions. EU Trade Minister Phil Hogan tried to ride out criticism of his attendance at a golf club dinner but in the end, Brussels...

Rational Trade Dependence; Better Examples

Rational Trade Dependence Global trade has begun to rebound but there remains a great deal of misunderstanding about its economic role. President Donald Trump has spent his time in office decrying American dependence on what he perceives as imbalanced terms of trade. Australia may now believe t...

Tightening Payment Limitation; COVID Protectionism

Tightening Payment Limitation The 2018 Farm Bill expanded the types of family members that are eligible for USDA farm payments to include first cousins, nieces, and nephews. Years of effort by politicians like U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) to limit the largess to active farmers seemed a...

ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act

ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...

Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle

Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberalized trade. She called for settling the current bilateral disputes like Airbus/Boeing, plus working together on WTO reforms and China. That ma...

Revolutionizing EU Agriculture; Squander Leverage/Solicit Good Will

Revolutionizing EU Agriculture The European Public Heath Alliance says agricultural support and promotion should end its focus on competitiveness and instead align with the health and sustainability goals of the Farm to Fork and European Green Deal initiatives. If adopted, this will upset the e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Weather patterns across much of Europe and the Black Sea remain lodged in a hot, dry trend causing likely delays and reductions in winter crop planted areas. The EU Commission noted that “severe drought conditions” exist across eastern Romania, eastern Bulga...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

The soybean meal price is projected at $315 per short ton, up 25 dollars. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

USDA Adjusts Stocks

Today’s September WASDE report reflects important adjustments in the projected ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Overall, global stocks of soybeans and wheat were increased while that of corn fell. But the larger changes can be attributed to just a handful of countries. Though...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Big Bets on Tomorrow

The market is frothy. Tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report could affirm today’s relatively bullish sentiment, or it could break it on fundamentals. The question is whether USDA’s corrections in yield, production and stocks go as far as current guesses. In all likelihood, there will be...

Transatlantic Protectionism III; Data Wars; Currency Wars

Transatlantic Protectionism III The EU issued its “Strategic Foresight” report and it lays the groundwork for potentially more protectionism. It declares Europe’s “economic sovereignty is at stake” due to imports from non-EU countries. It calls for new tools to pre...

Faded Green Wave; Better Answer than Decoupling

Faded Green Wave While politicians on both sides of the Atlantic boast of bold plans for environmental protection, executing their initiatives is proving more difficult. A desired ban on neonicotinoid use in Europe is proving difficult where the rubber meets the road on the farm. Biotechnology...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Share Implications

U.S. agricultural imports have been rising at a 6.42 percent annual rate over the past 25 years. Mostly due to duty-free goods under NAFTA, but also from Europe. By contrast, U.S. export market share for its major bulk commodities has been declining. There are many reasons for the latter, inclu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Firms Heading Into Long Weekend

CBOT ag markets were mostly higher as traders added risk premia to corn and soybeans heading into what looks like a dry weekend for the Corn Belt. Wheat futures traded lower in lackluster trade but broke technical support levels, setting up potential for lower trade early next week. Soymeal con...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies While Wheat Takes a Break; Feeder Cattle are Overpriced

Yesterday’s CBOT trends were reversed with the soy complex moving higher while wheat traded a steady, lackluster day. Corn and soybeans started the day weaker, but afternoon rumors of export business pushed the soy market higher. Funds are thought to have purchased some 7,500 contracts of...

Notable Changes in U.S. Agricultural Trade

In the year of COVID, it is difficult to assign precise reasons for changes in trade flows but following are some observations about U.S. agricultural trade in the year to date:  U.S. exports to India have taken the largest fall, but Bangladesh next door has seen the largest increase.&nb...

Responding to Trump Protectionism; Scary Sounding Protections

Responding to Trump Protectionism European farm ministers answered Donald Trump’s “protectionism” with, well more protectionism. German Farm Minister Julia Klöckner summarized the ministers CAP reform discussions this week by saying, “We need greater European autono...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies; Corn and Soybeans Look for Direction

The CBOT opened higher with support coming from USDA daily “flash” export sales announcements. Corn and soybeans started to weaken by mid-morning, however, and finished the day with a relatively lackluster performance. Wheat, on the other hand, posted another day of double-digit gai...

China Acquiescence; Selective Analysis

China Acquiescence Jeffrey Gerrish, the former deputy USTR for the Trump Administration is now back at his old law firm Skadden Arps and has little reason to carry water for his former employer. Therefore, it is with some greater credibility when he says most of the technical level issues prese...

Demanding Food Shortages

As Europe transitions to a low carbon economy amid COVID-related disruptions, there are rising concerns about developing shortages of basic materials. The same could happen to food if activists get their way in rewriting the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). While U.S. presidential contenders D...

Aid and Trade in the COVID Election Season

Initial unemployment claims topped 1 million for the second week in a row after previously declining below that psychological line. Total initial claims were 1,006,000, which was still almost 9 percent lower than the week before but not as good as had been hoped for a couple of weeks ago. This...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...

Glyphosate on Steroids; Exceptional Food; In the Year 2525

Glyphosate on Steroids It only takes emotive-based fear to elicit demands for glyphosate to be banned so at least there is a fact-based rationale for COVID-19 restrictions. EU Trade Minister Phil Hogan tried to ride out criticism of his attendance at a golf club dinner but in the end, Brussels...

Rational Trade Dependence; Better Examples

Rational Trade Dependence Global trade has begun to rebound but there remains a great deal of misunderstanding about its economic role. President Donald Trump has spent his time in office decrying American dependence on what he perceives as imbalanced terms of trade. Australia may now believe t...

Tightening Payment Limitation; COVID Protectionism

Tightening Payment Limitation The 2018 Farm Bill expanded the types of family members that are eligible for USDA farm payments to include first cousins, nieces, and nephews. Years of effort by politicians like U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) to limit the largess to active farmers seemed a...

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