World Perspectives

Recent Europe Analysis

Different Value-Added

USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the concentration of global grape trade by some of the world’s smaller producers of grapes. Six countries (Chile, Peru, South Africa, United St...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weather Whiplash

While the gyrations in the equities market are based on things like earnings and risks from inflation or COVID, agricultural commodities are all about the weather. It is the known unknown and there will not be any clarity for a while yet. In a brief reflection of diversity (different commoditie...

Green Measures Have Consequences; Good Choice at FAS

Green Measures Have Consequences Under France’s new Climate and Resilience law, farmers must reduce their emissions from nitrogen fertilizer by 15 percent or eventually face a fine for not doing so. In addition, school and government cafeterias must offer a vegetarian option at least once...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Buys Argentine Soy; EU Soy Imports; Brazil Soy

U.S. Soy Export Sales Down Last Week The week ending 15 July was not a good one for export sales of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil. Apparently, it will be quite a while before sales begin to substantially increase. Net export sales of U.S. soybeans last week totaled only 62,000 MT for the c...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in Chi...

Energy versus Ag; Quacks Like a Duck; Much Precedent

Energy versus Ag The Biden White House is reportedly undecided over biofuel blend mandates for 2021 and 2022 and is being asked to intervene in Mexico’s effort to renationalize its energy industry, neither of which speaks well for agriculture. Reports say the White House is torn between f...

Got Your Goat

The Washington Post featured an article about goat cheese production in the U.S. It notes that the number of dairy goats has increased nearly 132 percent since 1997. In 2020, dairy goats numbered 440,000, a 2 percent increase from 2019. It is not just goat cheese since U.S. production of specia...

Short Supply Chain Fallacy; Border Tax Mayhem

Short Supply Chain Fallacy Buy local is tribal but has quaint, emotive appeal. The EU is giving policy support to short supply chains, provided they do not harm intra-EU trade. But do they work in practice? The consultancy Agriculture Stratégies examined the economics and found the follo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Weather continues to drive almost every market involving a crop planted in the ground. Flooding across Germany and parts of western Europe are causing concerns for the harvest and crop quality in the region. Conversely, dryness in Ukraine and especially Russia is causing yie...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on U.S. Heat, EU Flooding, China Buying; Corn, Soybeans Trade Weather

The CBOT traded higher overnight with wheat and soybeans leading the way. Concerns about low-quality wheat in Europe fueled a rally in the Paris market that helped CBOT wheat firm as well. Increasing heat and dryness is forecast for the U.S. and Russia, causing additional production concerns fo...

Reality Check; Worker-Centric; Fit for 55

Reality Check The Mexican government says that it will halve the volume of corn imports by 2024 while concurrently eliminating the use of glyphosate. Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers are concerned about their yields this coming season due to a current short supply of glyphosate. Brazil’s corn...

Conceding Market Share; Nationalist Diet

Conceding Market Share American agricultural exporters long ago gave up on hopes of boosting their market share in Europe but now Europe may be conceding other markets to the U.S. Activist groups have eaten the farm lobby in Europe and each day brings new policy prescriptions that seem likely t...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month.  ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s July outlook for U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, unchanged from last month.  Harvested area, forecast at 86.7 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is unchanged from last month but up 4.4 million from last year.  The soybean yield forec...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s July outlook for U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks.  Supplies are lowered on reduced wheat production and beginning stocks.  All wheat production is lowered 152 million bushels to 1,746 million.&nbsp...

Cuban Tipping Point; Antitrust China; Kick Me

Cuban Tipping Point U.S. aggies have pushed for and dreamed about access to the Cuban market for decades. Despite its relatively small size (11 million people) and modest income ($9,296 per capita GDP), proponents of liberalized trade have perceived a proximity advantage over competitors for th...

Courts to Trump EO; Labor Trumps Ag; Greens Trump Ag

Courts to Trump EO A new Executive Order (EO) by President Biden is easy politics but difficult law. The order will supposedly allow livestock producers to sue packers without proving injury, a rehash of an Obama Administration policy that met an ill fate in the courts. It will also allow farme...

Name Calling One; Name Calling Two; China’s Self-Limitations; Value of Imports; Traitor to the Cause

Name Calling One Slammed by the lower cost of related catfish subspecies imported from Vietnam and China, U.S. catfish farmers have tried various approaches to reduce the competition. They threw AD/CVD duties at the imported fish, they lobbied the government to prevent the imported fish from be...

Land Use and Impact

The EU’s provisional agreement last week on changes to the Common Agricultural Policy envisions farmers setting aside 3 percent of their arable land for biodiversity efforts. While the share of agricultural land used for crops in the U.S. is about 39 percent less than in Europe, the numbe...

soy-oilseeds

Battle of Oilseeds

In the U.S. the battle for planting area is between corn and soybeans but in Europe it appears to be between rapeseed and soybeans. In recent years, the area planted to rapeseed has been declining at the same time the soybean production area has doubled. Italy is the largest soybean producer wi...

“Rut Ro” Trade; Selective “Encagement”; Small Wins

"Rut Ro" Trade In the animated television series Scooby-Doo from the early 1970’s, the talking dog star of the show called Scooby-Doo warned of danger by saying “rut ro” instead of uh oh. Free trade proponents in Washington are right now saying “rut ro” about a stu...

Corporate Good; Import Controls Lose; Transatlantic Movement

Corporate Good Following the Great Financial Crisis and continuing with the far left “Squad” in the U.S. Congress, capitalism has been under attack for representing greed. To respond to the criticisms, the Business Roundtable issued a statement “redefining the purpose of a cor...

biofuel wheat livestock

Ag Review - June 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the commodities boom, policies impacting the Renewable Fuel Standards, the Biden Administration's transatlantic agreements, the flour and egg markets as well as markets in...

Different Value-Added

USDA/FAS reports that excessive rains hit Chile earlier this year and damaged a wide swath of that country’s grape crop. What is notable is the concentration of global grape trade by some of the world’s smaller producers of grapes. Six countries (Chile, Peru, South Africa, United St...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weather Whiplash

While the gyrations in the equities market are based on things like earnings and risks from inflation or COVID, agricultural commodities are all about the weather. It is the known unknown and there will not be any clarity for a while yet. In a brief reflection of diversity (different commoditie...

Green Measures Have Consequences; Good Choice at FAS

Green Measures Have Consequences Under France’s new Climate and Resilience law, farmers must reduce their emissions from nitrogen fertilizer by 15 percent or eventually face a fine for not doing so. In addition, school and government cafeterias must offer a vegetarian option at least once...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Buys Argentine Soy; EU Soy Imports; Brazil Soy

U.S. Soy Export Sales Down Last Week The week ending 15 July was not a good one for export sales of U.S. soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil. Apparently, it will be quite a while before sales begin to substantially increase. Net export sales of U.S. soybeans last week totaled only 62,000 MT for the c...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 22 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in China,...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 22 July)

Ocean Freight Comments - 22 July 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another mixed week in dry-bulk markets without any well-defined direction. Markets were down and took away some recent excitement but did not indicate that a new trend has developed. Port weather problems in Chi...

Energy versus Ag; Quacks Like a Duck; Much Precedent

Energy versus Ag The Biden White House is reportedly undecided over biofuel blend mandates for 2021 and 2022 and is being asked to intervene in Mexico’s effort to renationalize its energy industry, neither of which speaks well for agriculture. Reports say the White House is torn between f...

Got Your Goat

The Washington Post featured an article about goat cheese production in the U.S. It notes that the number of dairy goats has increased nearly 132 percent since 1997. In 2020, dairy goats numbered 440,000, a 2 percent increase from 2019. It is not just goat cheese since U.S. production of specia...

Short Supply Chain Fallacy; Border Tax Mayhem

Short Supply Chain Fallacy Buy local is tribal but has quaint, emotive appeal. The EU is giving policy support to short supply chains, provided they do not harm intra-EU trade. But do they work in practice? The consultancy Agriculture Stratégies examined the economics and found the follo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Weather continues to drive almost every market involving a crop planted in the ground. Flooding across Germany and parts of western Europe are causing concerns for the harvest and crop quality in the region. Conversely, dryness in Ukraine and especially Russia is causing yie...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on U.S. Heat, EU Flooding, China Buying; Corn, Soybeans Trade Weather

The CBOT traded higher overnight with wheat and soybeans leading the way. Concerns about low-quality wheat in Europe fueled a rally in the Paris market that helped CBOT wheat firm as well. Increasing heat and dryness is forecast for the U.S. and Russia, causing additional production concerns fo...

Reality Check; Worker-Centric; Fit for 55

Reality Check The Mexican government says that it will halve the volume of corn imports by 2024 while concurrently eliminating the use of glyphosate. Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers are concerned about their yields this coming season due to a current short supply of glyphosate. Brazil’s corn...

Conceding Market Share; Nationalist Diet

Conceding Market Share American agricultural exporters long ago gave up on hopes of boosting their market share in Europe but now Europe may be conceding other markets to the U.S. Activist groups have eaten the farm lobby in Europe and each day brings new policy prescriptions that seem likely t...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month.  ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s July outlook for U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, unchanged from last month.  Harvested area, forecast at 86.7 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is unchanged from last month but up 4.4 million from last year.  The soybean yield forec...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s July outlook for U.S. wheat in 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks.  Supplies are lowered on reduced wheat production and beginning stocks.  All wheat production is lowered 152 million bushels to 1,746 million.&nbsp...

Cuban Tipping Point; Antitrust China; Kick Me

Cuban Tipping Point U.S. aggies have pushed for and dreamed about access to the Cuban market for decades. Despite its relatively small size (11 million people) and modest income ($9,296 per capita GDP), proponents of liberalized trade have perceived a proximity advantage over competitors for th...

Courts to Trump EO; Labor Trumps Ag; Greens Trump Ag

Courts to Trump EO A new Executive Order (EO) by President Biden is easy politics but difficult law. The order will supposedly allow livestock producers to sue packers without proving injury, a rehash of an Obama Administration policy that met an ill fate in the courts. It will also allow farme...

Name Calling One; Name Calling Two; China’s Self-Limitations; Value of Imports; Traitor to the Cause

Name Calling One Slammed by the lower cost of related catfish subspecies imported from Vietnam and China, U.S. catfish farmers have tried various approaches to reduce the competition. They threw AD/CVD duties at the imported fish, they lobbied the government to prevent the imported fish from be...

Land Use and Impact

The EU’s provisional agreement last week on changes to the Common Agricultural Policy envisions farmers setting aside 3 percent of their arable land for biodiversity efforts. While the share of agricultural land used for crops in the U.S. is about 39 percent less than in Europe, the numbe...

soy-oilseeds

Battle of Oilseeds

In the U.S. the battle for planting area is between corn and soybeans but in Europe it appears to be between rapeseed and soybeans. In recent years, the area planted to rapeseed has been declining at the same time the soybean production area has doubled. Italy is the largest soybean producer wi...

“Rut Ro” Trade; Selective “Encagement”; Small Wins

"Rut Ro" Trade In the animated television series Scooby-Doo from the early 1970’s, the talking dog star of the show called Scooby-Doo warned of danger by saying “rut ro” instead of uh oh. Free trade proponents in Washington are right now saying “rut ro” about a stu...

Corporate Good; Import Controls Lose; Transatlantic Movement

Corporate Good Following the Great Financial Crisis and continuing with the far left “Squad” in the U.S. Congress, capitalism has been under attack for representing greed. To respond to the criticisms, the Business Roundtable issued a statement “redefining the purpose of a cor...

biofuel wheat livestock

Ag Review - June 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the commodities boom, policies impacting the Renewable Fuel Standards, the Biden Administration's transatlantic agreements, the flour and egg markets as well as markets in...

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