World Perspectives

Recent Europe Analysis

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10.  The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...

Wrong at the Top; Happy Talk

Wrong at the Top We admit as private policy analysts that sometimes we add 1+1 and get three. It turns out top government officials can make the same mistake. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack had mused aloud that China could be buying Brazilian corn and not U.S. corn in retaliation for state-level re...

Food and IT Arrogance; Intentional Trade Policy

Food and IT Arrogance The EU was supposed to issue an updated “protein strategy” early this year but it has been postponed until perhaps late this summer. Its political leaders are flustered that two-thirds of the Continent’s high-quality protein and most of its soybeans are i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Tunisia purchased 75 KMT of soft wheat at prices of $233.25-329.90/MT C&F along with 50 KMT of hard wheat at $383.93-384.48/MT C&F for May delivery.  Jordan purchased 60 KMT of feed barley from an unspecified origin at $232.95/MT C&F.  Morocco plans to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Through 29 March, Ukraine has exported 35.593 MMT of grain for MY 2023/24, below the 37.382 MMT exported during the same period the prior year. Wheat exports total 13.7 MMT, barley shipments reached 1.962 MMT, and corn exports total 18.6 MMT. Egypt’s state-owned GASC p...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s grain stocks at the end of February totaled 28 MMT, down 2.7 percent compared to the prior year. Wheat stocks of 17.5 MMT were up 1.1 percent from February 2023 while corn stocks fell 10 percent over that period to 2.9 MMT. Oilseed stocks totaled 4 MMT (up 5 p...

Cahiers Redux – Politicians Recoil

The Cahiers de doléances [or kaje for short] were the pre-French revolution (1789) lists of societal complaints. The collective disappointments of the clergy, the nobility, and the rest of society too. Nothing has changed. Documents of the time cite the criticisms as: government waste, i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU Commission is proposing new support measures for farmers after widespread protests rocked the region in recent weeks. Farmers were pushing back against the suite of regulations aimed at making European farming more climate friendly. Russia attacked the Ukrainian port...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year.  The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...

Katy Bar the Door; Pursuing Food Sovereignty; USMCA Expansion

Katy Bar the Door Malaysia had filed a WTO dispute settlement case against the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive, arguing it is prejudicil in limiting the amount of imported palm oil that could qualify under the scheme. Brussels has pursued other ways to limit imports of palm oil from South...

Europe’s Mantel; Trade-less Trade Advisor

Europe’s Mantel Sans Viande: In three months, France will ban the use of “meat” when referring to meat alternative products. Since profits are in the adjective, meaning consumers will pay a premium for claims-based products such as geographic indicators, farmers in France have...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Short-Covering, Value Buying

The CBOT turned sharply higher after the three-day weekend with wheat leading the way on a surge in buying interest. Paris wheat started the rally with contracts there rebounded from new contract lows, and that strength spilled over into CBOT and KCBT futures as well. While little clear motivat...

Farm Bill Lacks Gravitas; Paying for Change

Farm Bill Lacks Gravitas Farmer protests appear to be exploding everywhere. Of course, in Europe where it is part of the profession. But in India as well where farmers are demanding higher minimum support process. Farmers in the U.S. also want higher guarantees for farm income. Commodity prices...

Farmer/Green Divide

The recent policy reversal in Europe on environmental obligations for farmers is not being welcomed by everyone. Greenpeace warns that excluding farms from emission reductions will ultimately hurt farmers as their crops fail under the burden of climate change. They are also warning that farmers...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  Wheat markets remain under pressure as Western Europe and Black Sea exports battle each other and the American markets for export demand. Paris Matif futures were sharply lower last week and scored new contract lows and a post-WASDE rally on Friday brought additional selling...

The Ashes of EU’s Greens; Redefining Consensus

The Ashes of EU’s Greens There is a lot of finger-pointing in Brussels over responsibility for originally drafting the Green Deal/Farm to Fork debacle, and now its withdrawal. The political nature of the whole exercise was illustrated by EU President Ursula von der Leyen’s rationale...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...

EU Sobers Up

The EU’s political leaders have made dramatic policy reversals in recent days that reflect a more reasoned approach than in the past. As noted previously, they have scrapped some of the Green Deal/Farm to Fork requirements like quitting pesticides, and today the EU Parliament (EP) approve...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

European Market Analysis

Regional News  European farmers are flexing their political muscles and proving just how much weight they carry with lawmakers. Farmers have been protesting all week across France, Spain, and Italy in response to various national and EU-level policies (e.g., Germany’s fuel subsidies)...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Turkey decided to reduce its import tax on sunflower seeds from 27 to 12 percent and on sunflower oil from 36 to 22 percent.  Milling Wheat  European wheat markets were mostly steady through Thursday last week, but Paris futures broke sharply lower on Friday. Europ...

NGT Controversy

Environmentalists in Europe are reportedly furious over the European Parliament’s Environment Committee approving the use of some new genomic techniques (NGTs) in an unregulated manner. One framing is that the conservative members of the Committee pushed it through, but conservatives comp...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10.  The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...

Wrong at the Top; Happy Talk

Wrong at the Top We admit as private policy analysts that sometimes we add 1+1 and get three. It turns out top government officials can make the same mistake. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack had mused aloud that China could be buying Brazilian corn and not U.S. corn in retaliation for state-level re...

Food and IT Arrogance; Intentional Trade Policy

Food and IT Arrogance The EU was supposed to issue an updated “protein strategy” early this year but it has been postponed until perhaps late this summer. Its political leaders are flustered that two-thirds of the Continent’s high-quality protein and most of its soybeans are i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Tunisia purchased 75 KMT of soft wheat at prices of $233.25-329.90/MT C&F along with 50 KMT of hard wheat at $383.93-384.48/MT C&F for May delivery.  Jordan purchased 60 KMT of feed barley from an unspecified origin at $232.95/MT C&F.  Morocco plans to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Through 29 March, Ukraine has exported 35.593 MMT of grain for MY 2023/24, below the 37.382 MMT exported during the same period the prior year. Wheat exports total 13.7 MMT, barley shipments reached 1.962 MMT, and corn exports total 18.6 MMT. Egypt’s state-owned GASC p...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s grain stocks at the end of February totaled 28 MMT, down 2.7 percent compared to the prior year. Wheat stocks of 17.5 MMT were up 1.1 percent from February 2023 while corn stocks fell 10 percent over that period to 2.9 MMT. Oilseed stocks totaled 4 MMT (up 5 p...

Cahiers Redux – Politicians Recoil

The Cahiers de doléances [or kaje for short] were the pre-French revolution (1789) lists of societal complaints. The collective disappointments of the clergy, the nobility, and the rest of society too. Nothing has changed. Documents of the time cite the criticisms as: government waste, i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU Commission is proposing new support measures for farmers after widespread protests rocked the region in recent weeks. Farmers were pushing back against the suite of regulations aimed at making European farming more climate friendly. Russia attacked the Ukrainian port...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year.  The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...

Katy Bar the Door; Pursuing Food Sovereignty; USMCA Expansion

Katy Bar the Door Malaysia had filed a WTO dispute settlement case against the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive, arguing it is prejudicil in limiting the amount of imported palm oil that could qualify under the scheme. Brussels has pursued other ways to limit imports of palm oil from South...

Europe’s Mantel; Trade-less Trade Advisor

Europe’s Mantel Sans Viande: In three months, France will ban the use of “meat” when referring to meat alternative products. Since profits are in the adjective, meaning consumers will pay a premium for claims-based products such as geographic indicators, farmers in France have...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally on Short-Covering, Value Buying

The CBOT turned sharply higher after the three-day weekend with wheat leading the way on a surge in buying interest. Paris wheat started the rally with contracts there rebounded from new contract lows, and that strength spilled over into CBOT and KCBT futures as well. While little clear motivat...

Farm Bill Lacks Gravitas; Paying for Change

Farm Bill Lacks Gravitas Farmer protests appear to be exploding everywhere. Of course, in Europe where it is part of the profession. But in India as well where farmers are demanding higher minimum support process. Farmers in the U.S. also want higher guarantees for farm income. Commodity prices...

Farmer/Green Divide

The recent policy reversal in Europe on environmental obligations for farmers is not being welcomed by everyone. Greenpeace warns that excluding farms from emission reductions will ultimately hurt farmers as their crops fail under the burden of climate change. They are also warning that farmers...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Milling Wheat  Wheat markets remain under pressure as Western Europe and Black Sea exports battle each other and the American markets for export demand. Paris Matif futures were sharply lower last week and scored new contract lows and a post-WASDE rally on Friday brought additional selling...

The Ashes of EU’s Greens; Redefining Consensus

The Ashes of EU’s Greens There is a lot of finger-pointing in Brussels over responsibility for originally drafting the Green Deal/Farm to Fork debacle, and now its withdrawal. The political nature of the whole exercise was illustrated by EU President Ursula von der Leyen’s rationale...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...

EU Sobers Up

The EU’s political leaders have made dramatic policy reversals in recent days that reflect a more reasoned approach than in the past. As noted previously, they have scrapped some of the Green Deal/Farm to Fork requirements like quitting pesticides, and today the EU Parliament (EP) approve...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

European Market Analysis

Regional News  European farmers are flexing their political muscles and proving just how much weight they carry with lawmakers. Farmers have been protesting all week across France, Spain, and Italy in response to various national and EU-level policies (e.g., Germany’s fuel subsidies)...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Turkey decided to reduce its import tax on sunflower seeds from 27 to 12 percent and on sunflower oil from 36 to 22 percent.  Milling Wheat  European wheat markets were mostly steady through Thursday last week, but Paris futures broke sharply lower on Friday. Europ...

NGT Controversy

Environmentalists in Europe are reportedly furious over the European Parliament’s Environment Committee approving the use of some new genomic techniques (NGTs) in an unregulated manner. One framing is that the conservative members of the Committee pushed it through, but conservatives comp...

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