World Perspectives

Recent Europe Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Crops Being Made

July is a critical month for corn and soybeans are made in August so short of freak events like last week’s derecho, this year’s crops are nearly past any troubles. Next week’s U.S. Midwest weather brings below normal temperatures and less precipitation, which is better than h...

Carou-Selled; Good for the Goose; Room for Green Ag; Glypho-phobia

Carou-Selled When carousel retaliation (periodically changing the products targeted for trade retaliation) was introduced in 2000, the goal was to increase the uncertainty and broaden the pain inflicted to increase the chance of compliance by the targeted country. This week the Trump Administra...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

  The soybean oil price is forecast at 30.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

Soybean crush is also raised, mainly reflecting increased soybean meal exports.  The soybean meal price is forecast at $290 per short ton, down 10 dollars...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA forecasts U.S. soybean production at 4.425 billion bushels, up 290 million on higher yields.  Harvested area is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the July projection.  The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.3 bushels per acre is raised 3.5 bushels from l...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

 USDA forecasts U.S. corn production at 15.3 billion bushels, up 278 million from the July projection.  The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 181.8 bushels per acre, is 3.3 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection.  Today&rsqu...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

China Strategy Evolution

Presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden announced his pick for vice president today, but the far larger question is what would he do about China? He has said he will eliminate Trump tariffs and work with allies to pressure Beijing but there should be skepticism about the effecti...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)

Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...

Values-Based Trading; Inflation Amuck

Values-Based Trading In the latest effort to block a trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, activist groups Uplift and TASC issued a report claiming agricultural and climate practices in South America are “inconsistent” with EU values. Values-based trading now joins vaccine na...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...

Trade on Campaign Trail; AgChem Cold Turkey

Trade on the Campaign Trail The two leading candidates for the U.S. presidency are making it clear that trade will be a central campaign topic, and it will be interesting to see which side wins. Campaigning in the key manufacturing state of Ohio yesterday, President Trump made clear that he wil...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Europe and Deforestation; Strong Brazilian Real

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil had good success in making export sales in the week ending 30 July. The larger sales likely portend large sales of the commodities in coming weeks. Net soybean export sale...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation

The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day.  The Wall...

Phase One Collateral Damage; Conditional Income Subsidies

Phase One Collateral Damage UC-Davis researchers Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 27383) the impact of the Phase One agreement on China’s agricultural imports and find that some U.S. allies should be very upset. Holding China’s imports roughly static,...

feed-grains

Malt Prices Rising

The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...

Pesticide Hesitancy; Unintended Slippage

Pesticide Hesitancy Vaccine hesitancy is the polite characterization of those who refuse vaccinations against disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) categorizes anti-vaxxers as one of the top ten health threats.  The WHO’s sister agency, the Food & Agriculture Organization,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU Commission’s MARS unit cut its forecast of the EU soft wheat yield to 5.54 MT/ha, down from earlier estimates of 5.6 MT/ha. The agency increased its yield expectations for most other crops, however, including corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds.    Thi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Recession Impacts on Trade

Both the U.S. and Europe reported this week that the coronavirus pandemic sent their respective economies into the deepest plunge on record. A look at the impact of the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession for potential implications on agricultural markets from the current pandemic may or may not...

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race; Grain Monopolization

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race A Nikkei survey of 145 Japanese company CEO’s found that a majority believe it will take at least two years to economically recover from the coronavirus. Basically, 38 percent said it will take two years and 17.8 percent said it will take even longer th...

Nail on the Head; Roll Your Own; Filipino Fraud; Hot Air Bus

Nail on the Head Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts) and Cory Booker (New Jersey) teamed up on a report excoriating the meat industry over worker conditions and the coronavirus. Keep in mind that as a vegetarian, Mr. Booker is naturally disinclined towards meat packing and Ms...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  European and Black Sea markets are seemingly solely focused on the advancing wheat harvest as well as the early start of rapeseed/summer crop harvests. For most countries, wheat harvest is half-finished or better and yields have reflected earlier expectations. The only real...

Cancel Culture on Policy

The use of public shaming and destroying individuals or entities disfavored by activists has become highly fashionable but it has been around in food and agriculture policy for many years. Activists in Europe have tried to shut down the European Food Safety Authority, arguing its scientific jud...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Row crops were weaker overnight, pressured by favorable statistics from yesterday’s Crop Progress report, and that weakness extended into the day session as well. Corn and soybean futures finished lower while wheat posted 5+ cent gains in purely consolidative trade. Even USDA’s anno...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on the defensive overnight and traded that way heading into the opening bell. The lone exception was soybeans, which finished 3¼ cents higher overnight and started the day session firm as well. The day session brought more of the same, with corn lower on favorable U.S. we...

Yankee Chutzpa; Chlorinated Cars

Yankee Chutzpa Washington is reportedly asking the WTO for permission to impose retaliatory tariffs against China for the latter’s failure to reduce domestic agricultural subsidies. The U.S. had obtained a WTO Dispute Settlement panel’s concurrence last year that China’s domes...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The European and Black Sea wheat and summer crop markets are largely in wait-and-see mode regarding 2020 Northern Hemisphere supplies. Certainly, news of smaller Russian wheat crops and reductions to the EU wheat harvest have supported prices recently, but rallies have been...

WTO Leadership Criteria; Self-Reliance

WTO Leadership Criteria Candidates to become the next leader of the WTO have begun taking turns before the body and pitching why they should be selected. Jesus Seade (Mexico) blamed a lack of WTO resources and said he would emphasize development. Abdel-Hamid Mamdouh (Egypt) blamed a lack of ide...

Government Outsourcing; Underrepresented for a Reason; Even a Kid Knows

Governments Outsourcing The German government is complaining that companies are failing to meet regulatory mandates for ecological and social standards in their foreign supply chains. Foreign Minister Heiko Maas reacted to this assessment by saying, “We must therefore now talk about legal...

feed-grains livestock soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary

The overnight session looked like a Turnaround Tuesday would develop, but despite news of the fourth largest daily corn sale on record, the CBOT remained under pressure. Corn futures continued to edge lower while soybeans found slight support from bull spreading against corn and strength in soy...

China’s COVID Food Protectionism; Lazy Thinking II

China’s COVID Food Protectionism Under the pretense of preventing the spread of the coronavirus, China is requiring more intensive inspection of imported food products. The result is that import inspections that use to take three days have now stretched out to 10 days, putting at risk the...

feed-grains

New Corn Strategy

Economists at FarmDocDaily point out in an article entitled, “World Market Conditions Suggest Set-Asides Not an Effective Farm Policy for Corn and Soybeans” that U.S. farmers have been losing market world share to South America. They correctly note that the current discussion about...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA raised U.S. soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20.  With projections for exports unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Crops Being Made

July is a critical month for corn and soybeans are made in August so short of freak events like last week’s derecho, this year’s crops are nearly past any troubles. Next week’s U.S. Midwest weather brings below normal temperatures and less precipitation, which is better than h...

Carou-Selled; Good for the Goose; Room for Green Ag; Glypho-phobia

Carou-Selled When carousel retaliation (periodically changing the products targeted for trade retaliation) was introduced in 2000, the goal was to increase the uncertainty and broaden the pain inflicted to increase the chance of compliance by the targeted country. This week the Trump Administra...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

  The soybean oil price is forecast at 30.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

Soybean crush is also raised, mainly reflecting increased soybean meal exports.  The soybean meal price is forecast at $290 per short ton, down 10 dollars...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA forecasts U.S. soybean production at 4.425 billion bushels, up 290 million on higher yields.  Harvested area is forecast at 83.0 million acres, unchanged from the July projection.  The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.3 bushels per acre is raised 3.5 bushels from l...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

 USDA forecasts U.S. corn production at 15.3 billion bushels, up 278 million from the July projection.  The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 181.8 bushels per acre, is 3.3 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection.  Today&rsqu...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

China Strategy Evolution

Presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden announced his pick for vice president today, but the far larger question is what would he do about China? He has said he will eliminate Trump tariffs and work with allies to pressure Beijing but there should be skepticism about the effecti...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 11 August)

Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 11 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...

Values-Based Trading; Inflation Amuck

Values-Based Trading In the latest effort to block a trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, activist groups Uplift and TASC issued a report claiming agricultural and climate practices in South America are “inconsistent” with EU values. Values-based trading now joins vaccine na...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...

Trade on Campaign Trail; AgChem Cold Turkey

Trade on the Campaign Trail The two leading candidates for the U.S. presidency are making it clear that trade will be a central campaign topic, and it will be interesting to see which side wins. Campaigning in the key manufacturing state of Ohio yesterday, President Trump made clear that he wil...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Europe and Deforestation; Strong Brazilian Real

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil had good success in making export sales in the week ending 30 July. The larger sales likely portend large sales of the commodities in coming weeks. Net soybean export sale...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation

The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day.  The Wall...

Phase One Collateral Damage; Conditional Income Subsidies

Phase One Collateral Damage UC-Davis researchers Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 27383) the impact of the Phase One agreement on China’s agricultural imports and find that some U.S. allies should be very upset. Holding China’s imports roughly static,...

feed-grains

Malt Prices Rising

The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...

Pesticide Hesitancy; Unintended Slippage

Pesticide Hesitancy Vaccine hesitancy is the polite characterization of those who refuse vaccinations against disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) categorizes anti-vaxxers as one of the top ten health threats.  The WHO’s sister agency, the Food & Agriculture Organization,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The EU Commission’s MARS unit cut its forecast of the EU soft wheat yield to 5.54 MT/ha, down from earlier estimates of 5.6 MT/ha. The agency increased its yield expectations for most other crops, however, including corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds.    Thi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Recession Impacts on Trade

Both the U.S. and Europe reported this week that the coronavirus pandemic sent their respective economies into the deepest plunge on record. A look at the impact of the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession for potential implications on agricultural markets from the current pandemic may or may not...

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race; Grain Monopolization

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race A Nikkei survey of 145 Japanese company CEO’s found that a majority believe it will take at least two years to economically recover from the coronavirus. Basically, 38 percent said it will take two years and 17.8 percent said it will take even longer th...

Nail on the Head; Roll Your Own; Filipino Fraud; Hot Air Bus

Nail on the Head Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts) and Cory Booker (New Jersey) teamed up on a report excoriating the meat industry over worker conditions and the coronavirus. Keep in mind that as a vegetarian, Mr. Booker is naturally disinclined towards meat packing and Ms...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  European and Black Sea markets are seemingly solely focused on the advancing wheat harvest as well as the early start of rapeseed/summer crop harvests. For most countries, wheat harvest is half-finished or better and yields have reflected earlier expectations. The only real...

Cancel Culture on Policy

The use of public shaming and destroying individuals or entities disfavored by activists has become highly fashionable but it has been around in food and agriculture policy for many years. Activists in Europe have tried to shut down the European Food Safety Authority, arguing its scientific jud...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Row crops were weaker overnight, pressured by favorable statistics from yesterday’s Crop Progress report, and that weakness extended into the day session as well. Corn and soybean futures finished lower while wheat posted 5+ cent gains in purely consolidative trade. Even USDA’s anno...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened on the defensive overnight and traded that way heading into the opening bell. The lone exception was soybeans, which finished 3¼ cents higher overnight and started the day session firm as well. The day session brought more of the same, with corn lower on favorable U.S. we...

Yankee Chutzpa; Chlorinated Cars

Yankee Chutzpa Washington is reportedly asking the WTO for permission to impose retaliatory tariffs against China for the latter’s failure to reduce domestic agricultural subsidies. The U.S. had obtained a WTO Dispute Settlement panel’s concurrence last year that China’s domes...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The European and Black Sea wheat and summer crop markets are largely in wait-and-see mode regarding 2020 Northern Hemisphere supplies. Certainly, news of smaller Russian wheat crops and reductions to the EU wheat harvest have supported prices recently, but rallies have been...

WTO Leadership Criteria; Self-Reliance

WTO Leadership Criteria Candidates to become the next leader of the WTO have begun taking turns before the body and pitching why they should be selected. Jesus Seade (Mexico) blamed a lack of WTO resources and said he would emphasize development. Abdel-Hamid Mamdouh (Egypt) blamed a lack of ide...

Government Outsourcing; Underrepresented for a Reason; Even a Kid Knows

Governments Outsourcing The German government is complaining that companies are failing to meet regulatory mandates for ecological and social standards in their foreign supply chains. Foreign Minister Heiko Maas reacted to this assessment by saying, “We must therefore now talk about legal...

feed-grains livestock soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary

The overnight session looked like a Turnaround Tuesday would develop, but despite news of the fourth largest daily corn sale on record, the CBOT remained under pressure. Corn futures continued to edge lower while soybeans found slight support from bull spreading against corn and strength in soy...

China’s COVID Food Protectionism; Lazy Thinking II

China’s COVID Food Protectionism Under the pretense of preventing the spread of the coronavirus, China is requiring more intensive inspection of imported food products. The result is that import inspections that use to take three days have now stretched out to 10 days, putting at risk the...

feed-grains

New Corn Strategy

Economists at FarmDocDaily point out in an article entitled, “World Market Conditions Suggest Set-Asides Not an Effective Farm Policy for Corn and Soybeans” that U.S. farmers have been losing market world share to South America. They correctly note that the current discussion about...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA raised U.S. soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20.  With projections for exports unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million...

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