World Perspectives

Recent India Analysis

Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup

Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 2021 and 13.3 percent in December alone. Its solution is price controls, limiting the margin earned on trading major food products to 10 perce...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Firmer Heading into WASDE; Cattle Rally from Technical Support

The CBOT turned higher on the last day of pre-WASDE trading as continued short covering in wheat and a bullish response to CONAB’s new production data drove the markets. Funds are long corn and soybeans heading into the USDA’s January WASDE report tomorrow and have been actively cov...

Trade Announcement on India and Pork Highlights What is Not Happening

Trade negotiations are a long, slow process, marked in many cases by small steps on the way to broader market access and more robust trade. A good reminder of that was the joint announcement by USDA and USTR yesterday that India has opened its market to U.S. pork.   According to a sta...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Situation Update

As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. The CFTC reports that speculators increased their net long positions in soybeans in the week to 4 January by 5,140 contracts to a total of 85,...

softs

How Sweet it Isn’t

In the past three years, India has switched from being the number four exporter of sugar in the world to number two. Over the past dozen years, its domestic production has grown by 56 percent, but its exports have exploded by 229 percent. It turns out there is a reason. In a WTO challenge by Au...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

Soyoil: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for soyoil to average 65 cents per pound in the 2021/22 season. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. Soybean crush is unchanged but soybean oil production is raised on a higher extraction rate. Soybean oil used for biofuel for 2021/22 is unchanged at 11 billion pounds. The U.S. season-average on-farm soybean price is u...

Inflation Blame-Shifting; India’s Un-Reform

Inflation Blame-Shifting President Joe Biden has asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the major oil companies for raising the cost of the fuel they sell. Now the Washington Post reports that attacking private companies for inflation may be a broader strategy. A large majority of Am...

GM Advantage

Eggplant (Brinjal) is one of the more important vegetables consumed in South Asia. It is low in nutrients but provides bulk and fiber while also being highly absorbent of flavorings. It is also subject to attack by the eggplant fruit and shoot borer, which reduces yields on a large share of the...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

The U.S. season-average soyoil price for 2020/21 is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure

The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday.  The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Stocks; Another Soy Crush Plant; China Vegoil Imports; India Tariffs

USDA WASDE Report Substantially Loosens Soy Supply/Demand Situation Only a few days after USDA raised its estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks in 2020/21, it again raised its estimates for stocks in 2021/22 with its 12 October WASDE crop production report. By increasing its forecast for the...

Land Rents Smooth Sector

There is much angst that more than half of cropland in the U.S. is rented, with the usual opprobrium involving farmers at the mercy of landlords, and landlords reaping the benefits of government subsidies. Researchers at the IMF, Princeton, and the University of Toronto studied the farmland ren...

India’s Opportunity; Mexico’s Loss; Meat of the Issue

India’s Opportunity Sometime next year India will promulgate its next five-year Foreign Trade Policy (FTP). Based on the past five years, India has been operating an anti-trade policy. Average tariffs on industrial goods have risen from an average 13.3 percent to 17.6 percent, and in agri...

MFN Hurdle; Sovereign Losers; Trade Policy Movement

MFN Hurdle German Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner is urging the European Commission to ensure that third countries with a trade agreement with Europe have the same sustainability standards. Basically, imports must be held to the same standards as internal EU production methods. The pro...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Soy Stocks; Argentina Soy Crush; India Soymeal

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 16 September indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans and soymeal had reasonably good success selling soybeans and soymeal for export during the week. However, as expected export sales and exports of soy...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks.  Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27 percent below last year and the lowest in...

Getting Competitive; Big to Rescue India

Getting Competitive President Joe Biden rationalized the withdrawal from Afghanistan yesterday by first saying it was “no longer in our national interest,” and then adding that we need to “shore up the nation’s competitiveness to meet the challenges of China and Russia.&...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Indian Soymeal; Canadian Canola; Renewable Diesel

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights The week ending 19 August was a good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans for shipment in 2021/22, but not so much for exporters of soymeal and soyoil.  Net export sales of soybeans for shipment in 2020/21 totaled only 75,100 MT while sales for shipment in 20...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Sales; Argentine Corn versus Soybeans; Soybean Crop Damage in India

Soy Export Sales, Large Soybean Sales to China and Elsewhere The last two weeks have seen very large sales of U.S. soybeans to China and other destinations for export in MY 2021/22. This is the time of the year U.S. exporters normally report large new-crop soybean export sales, so the sales are...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

2021/22 global oilseed stocks are slightly higher as lower production is paired with lower use.  The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Parana River; India Soy; LA Renewable Diesel

U.S. Old-Crop Soybean Export Sales Declined Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated old-crop soybean export sales declined last week, but sales for the next marketing year increased. Sales of soymeal and soyoil also were poor. Net U.S. soybean export sales for shipment in 202...

Security Trumps Economics

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week but do not expect any help for U.S. farmers. The two plan to talk about China, bilateral defense ties, regional peace, and other geopolitical matters. There is no indication that the Biden Administration...

Hunger at Home, Food Abroad

Bloomberg reports a dramatic increase in hunger in India last year due to the economic losses from COVID. The Centre for Sustainable Employment in India believes that 2021 will be worse because now savings have been depleted. Meanwhile, India’s agricultural exports have increased by over...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA’s July outlook for soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month.  ...

Meat and Health

Some health advocates are pushing the narrative that plant-based diets are not only better for the planet but also good for one’s health. If true, this should be evidenced statistically. India by far has the highest percentage of population on a vegetarian diet (38 – 45 percent) yet...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Canadian Canola; U.S. Soymeal; Indian Monsoon; China ASF; Soy Stocks

Canadian Canola Crop is in Big Trouble. While most of the attention in the U.S. has been focused on the drought in the upper Midwest the drought in the Canadian prairie provinces appears to be even worse. And that is a big problem for the canola crop in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. The...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; India Soybeans; Brazil and Argentine Soymeal; Weather

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS weekly export sales report continued to show low U.S. soy export sales and also a slowing down of exports because of the great increase in exports out of South America. However, there are signs demand for U.S. soy will begin to pick up in late...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Popular India Soy and Maize

The U.S. has complained that India has underreported to the WTO on its wheat and rice subsidies, which involve the largest crops receiving support. However, the largest annual increases in the market support price (MSP) are going to soybeans and then maize. As previously noted, India’s so...

soy-oilseeds

India’s Soy Outpaces

The head of India’s soybean processing trade association said that the nation’s soybean harvest area will expand by 10 percent this year. India is the world’s largest consumer of vegetable oil and exported three times as much soymeal a decade ago until domestic demand started...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels because of a lower forecast domestic meal disappearance and higher soybean meal imports.  ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks.  Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21. With higher soybean beginning stocks and no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, up 15 million from...

Punish the People; Chump Trade Policy; Careful with Farmers

Punish the People Like consumers elsewhere in the world, Indians are now paying about double for vegetable oil what they paid a year ago. This is a bargain when one considers that Chicago July soyoil futures are up 150 percent from last year. India is the world’s largest importer of veget...

Inflation Whiff; Indian Scraps; Capitol Coup

Inflation Whiff Kiev is not just battling a Russian-led insurrection in the Donbas but is also trying to fight food inflation, which hit 11.3 percent in 2021 and 13.3 percent in December alone. Its solution is price controls, limiting the margin earned on trading major food products to 10 perce...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Firmer Heading into WASDE; Cattle Rally from Technical Support

The CBOT turned higher on the last day of pre-WASDE trading as continued short covering in wheat and a bullish response to CONAB’s new production data drove the markets. Funds are long corn and soybeans heading into the USDA’s January WASDE report tomorrow and have been actively cov...

Trade Announcement on India and Pork Highlights What is Not Happening

Trade negotiations are a long, slow process, marked in many cases by small steps on the way to broader market access and more robust trade. A good reminder of that was the joint announcement by USDA and USTR yesterday that India has opened its market to U.S. pork.   According to a sta...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Situation Update

As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. The CFTC reports that speculators increased their net long positions in soybeans in the week to 4 January by 5,140 contracts to a total of 85,...

softs

How Sweet it Isn’t

In the past three years, India has switched from being the number four exporter of sugar in the world to number two. Over the past dozen years, its domestic production has grown by 56 percent, but its exports have exploded by 229 percent. It turns out there is a reason. In a WTO challenge by Au...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

Soyoil: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for soyoil to average 65 cents per pound in the 2021/22 season. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. Soybean crush is unchanged but soybean oil production is raised on a higher extraction rate. Soybean oil used for biofuel for 2021/22 is unchanged at 11 billion pounds. The U.S. season-average on-farm soybean price is u...

Inflation Blame-Shifting; India’s Un-Reform

Inflation Blame-Shifting President Joe Biden has asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the major oil companies for raising the cost of the fuel they sell. Now the Washington Post reports that attacking private companies for inflation may be a broader strategy. A large majority of Am...

GM Advantage

Eggplant (Brinjal) is one of the more important vegetables consumed in South Asia. It is low in nutrients but provides bulk and fiber while also being highly absorbent of flavorings. It is also subject to attack by the eggplant fruit and shoot borer, which reduces yields on a large share of the...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

The U.S. season-average soyoil price for 2020/21 is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on ADM Delivery Receipt Cancellation; Soy Complex Under Pressure

The CBOT was mixed to end the week with wheat surging to new highs and helping put a bid under corn futures as well. The soy complex was weaker due to soyoil, which was pulled lower after Malaysian palm oil futures posted a huge reversal Thursday.  The biggest reason for the KCBT rally was...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Stocks; Another Soy Crush Plant; China Vegoil Imports; India Tariffs

USDA WASDE Report Substantially Loosens Soy Supply/Demand Situation Only a few days after USDA raised its estimate for U.S. soybean ending stocks in 2020/21, it again raised its estimates for stocks in 2021/22 with its 12 October WASDE crop production report. By increasing its forecast for the...

Land Rents Smooth Sector

There is much angst that more than half of cropland in the U.S. is rented, with the usual opprobrium involving farmers at the mercy of landlords, and landlords reaping the benefits of government subsidies. Researchers at the IMF, Princeton, and the University of Toronto studied the farmland ren...

India’s Opportunity; Mexico’s Loss; Meat of the Issue

India’s Opportunity Sometime next year India will promulgate its next five-year Foreign Trade Policy (FTP). Based on the past five years, India has been operating an anti-trade policy. Average tariffs on industrial goods have risen from an average 13.3 percent to 17.6 percent, and in agri...

MFN Hurdle; Sovereign Losers; Trade Policy Movement

MFN Hurdle German Agriculture Minister Julia Klöckner is urging the European Commission to ensure that third countries with a trade agreement with Europe have the same sustainability standards. Basically, imports must be held to the same standards as internal EU production methods. The pro...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; China Soy Stocks; Argentina Soy Crush; India Soymeal

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report for the week ending 16 September indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans and soymeal had reasonably good success selling soybeans and soymeal for export during the week. However, as expected export sales and exports of soy...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks.  Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27 percent below last year and the lowest in...

Getting Competitive; Big to Rescue India

Getting Competitive President Joe Biden rationalized the withdrawal from Afghanistan yesterday by first saying it was “no longer in our national interest,” and then adding that we need to “shore up the nation’s competitiveness to meet the challenges of China and Russia.&...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Indian Soymeal; Canadian Canola; Renewable Diesel

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights The week ending 19 August was a good one for exporters of U.S. soybeans for shipment in 2021/22, but not so much for exporters of soymeal and soyoil.  Net export sales of soybeans for shipment in 2020/21 totaled only 75,100 MT while sales for shipment in 20...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Sales; Argentine Corn versus Soybeans; Soybean Crop Damage in India

Soy Export Sales, Large Soybean Sales to China and Elsewhere The last two weeks have seen very large sales of U.S. soybeans to China and other destinations for export in MY 2021/22. This is the time of the year U.S. exporters normally report large new-crop soybean export sales, so the sales are...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

2021/22 global oilseed stocks are slightly higher as lower production is paired with lower use.  The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Parana River; India Soy; LA Renewable Diesel

U.S. Old-Crop Soybean Export Sales Declined Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated old-crop soybean export sales declined last week, but sales for the next marketing year increased. Sales of soymeal and soyoil also were poor. Net U.S. soybean export sales for shipment in 202...

Security Trumps Economics

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week but do not expect any help for U.S. farmers. The two plan to talk about China, bilateral defense ties, regional peace, and other geopolitical matters. There is no indication that the Biden Administration...

Hunger at Home, Food Abroad

Bloomberg reports a dramatic increase in hunger in India last year due to the economic losses from COVID. The Centre for Sustainable Employment in India believes that 2021 will be worse because now savings have been depleted. Meanwhile, India’s agricultural exports have increased by over...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA’s July outlook for soybean oil price is forecast at 57.5 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA’s July outook for soybean meal price is projected at $395.00 per short ton, down $10.00 from last month.  ...

Meat and Health

Some health advocates are pushing the narrative that plant-based diets are not only better for the planet but also good for one’s health. If true, this should be evidenced statistically. India by far has the highest percentage of population on a vegetarian diet (38 – 45 percent) yet...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Canadian Canola; U.S. Soymeal; Indian Monsoon; China ASF; Soy Stocks

Canadian Canola Crop is in Big Trouble. While most of the attention in the U.S. has been focused on the drought in the upper Midwest the drought in the Canadian prairie provinces appears to be even worse. And that is a big problem for the canola crop in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. The...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; India Soybeans; Brazil and Argentine Soymeal; Weather

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS weekly export sales report continued to show low U.S. soy export sales and also a slowing down of exports because of the great increase in exports out of South America. However, there are signs demand for U.S. soy will begin to pick up in late...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Popular India Soy and Maize

The U.S. has complained that India has underreported to the WTO on its wheat and rice subsidies, which involve the largest crops receiving support. However, the largest annual increases in the market support price (MSP) are going to soybeans and then maize. As previously noted, India’s so...

soy-oilseeds

India’s Soy Outpaces

The head of India’s soybean processing trade association said that the nation’s soybean harvest area will expand by 10 percent this year. India is the world’s largest consumer of vegetable oil and exported three times as much soymeal a decade ago until domestic demand started...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels because of a lower forecast domestic meal disappearance and higher soybean meal imports.  ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks.  Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21. With higher soybean beginning stocks and no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, up 15 million from...

Punish the People; Chump Trade Policy; Careful with Farmers

Punish the People Like consumers elsewhere in the world, Indians are now paying about double for vegetable oil what they paid a year ago. This is a bargain when one considers that Chicago July soyoil futures are up 150 percent from last year. India is the world’s largest importer of veget...

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