Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...
Against the Grain; Bipartisan Horses; China and EU Deals
Against the Grain Demographics are destiny, and with 60 percent of the world’s population and some of its fastest-growing economies, this is supposed to be the Asian Century. That is the theme of the book “The Future is Asian” by Singaporean geopolitical consultant Parag Khann...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-7 March 2019 Grain prices on the domestic market mainly decreased under pressure from negative trends on the export market. The average milling wheat export price dropped $2/MT to $228/MT FOB Black Sea, but purchase prices grew to $201-203/MT CPT-Black Sea port. Meanwhi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian GASC has rejected a shipment of Romanian wheat, saying that it does not meet tender specifications. The falling number analysis shows 130 seconds, while the tender standard is 200 seconds. Falling number is important in bread baki...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market continues to erode in sympathy with the MATIF and CBOT futures. Russia has exported approximately 29.5 MMT since the start of the campaign. The weather in southern Russia and Ukraine is mild for the season. The snow is melting, and vegetation will soon resume...
Wisdom of Traders; All About the Shekels; For Politicians, Not People
Wisdom of Traders Sometimes it takes 50 yeas of experience in an industry to have the wisdom and courage to speak the truth. Derek Chambers, a semi-retired cocoa trader, had good words of advice at this week’s Cocoa Merchants Association of America conference in Miami. He advised delegate...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with corn futures down a fraction, soybeans off 1-2 cents and Chicago wheat down about 4 cents. Trading volume was again quite low. The price weak...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 February-1 March 2019 Domestic grain prices moved in different directions or remained stable, depending on the region. Export prices, however, decreased. Thus, the average milling wheat export price fell another $6/MT to $230/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices dropp...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS In Yemen, a U.N. World Food Program team is said to have reached the grain silos near Hodeida. It reports that the 51,000 MT of wheat stored there are suffering from weevil infection with further condition assessment to follow and that only on...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week as it followed the decline of the EU and U.S. markets. Russia is exporting about 500 KMT per week, bringing the cumulated total since the start of campaign to 29 MMT as of the end of February. The big question is whether it can exp...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were mixed overnight with wheat trying to rally (again), soybeans a bit weaker and corn stuck in between. Trading volume was not impressive. Price weakness became more pervasive during the day session in light volume. At the close, only soyoil and MGEX wheat futures were h...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 February 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated insignificantly, but the average milling wheat export price dropped $6/MT to $236/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices fell to $207-209/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley export price decreased to $221/MT F...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat export tender of last week has reportedly received a poor response. It was said that 12 traders participated, and their offered prices were below what had been anticipated with the highest bid at $219/MT for 25,000 MT an...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview After a few weeks of good activity with strong purchases from China, the markets were very quiet last week as the U.S.-China trade talks kept traders sidelined awaiting the results amid several confusing and vague news reports about their success. Nevertheless, substant...
Market Commentary
Today’s markets faced a number of crosscurrents. Besides spreading in China, African swine fever (ASF) has appeared in Vietnam and could well spread elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Measuring the effect of ASF on hog populations and feed consumption has become difficult if not impossible, but...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 February 2019 Domestic grain prices either moved in mixed directions or remained stable. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price fell to $242/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices dropped to $208-211/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley export pr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Desert locust outbreaks in Saudi Arabia and Egypt are a concern for crops. Much rainfall and strong winds are expanding swarms as well as bringing them north from Eritrea and Sudan, a situation that is expected to continue through the rest of...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 February 2019 Domestic grain prices all increased except for a few that remained stable. However, the average milling wheat export price fell $1/MT to $246/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices were unchanged in RUB expression while decreasing in USD expression to $22...
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look
If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAS/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Cairo3a Poultry, a major company in grain trading and poultry production with other interests in agriculture and transportation, has signed a $90 million contract with KarmSolar for a solar project that will supply 100 percent of...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic market was about 200 rubles ($3)/MT higher. Its exports are slowing significantly as the higher prices and unofficial export barriers are doing their job. The Egyptian GASC purchased 300 KMT last week...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally better overnight and this morning following Thursday’s pre-USDA report sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were primarily the result of the numerous comments by various U.S. administration officials that the China trade deal isn’t done yet. There was virtually...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...
Against the Grain; Bipartisan Horses; China and EU Deals
Against the Grain Demographics are destiny, and with 60 percent of the world’s population and some of its fastest-growing economies, this is supposed to be the Asian Century. That is the theme of the book “The Future is Asian” by Singaporean geopolitical consultant Parag Khann...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-7 March 2019 Grain prices on the domestic market mainly decreased under pressure from negative trends on the export market. The average milling wheat export price dropped $2/MT to $228/MT FOB Black Sea, but purchase prices grew to $201-203/MT CPT-Black Sea port. Meanwhi...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian GASC has rejected a shipment of Romanian wheat, saying that it does not meet tender specifications. The falling number analysis shows 130 seconds, while the tender standard is 200 seconds. Falling number is important in bread baki...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market continues to erode in sympathy with the MATIF and CBOT futures. Russia has exported approximately 29.5 MMT since the start of the campaign. The weather in southern Russia and Ukraine is mild for the season. The snow is melting, and vegetation will soon resume...
Wisdom of Traders; All About the Shekels; For Politicians, Not People
Wisdom of Traders Sometimes it takes 50 yeas of experience in an industry to have the wisdom and courage to speak the truth. Derek Chambers, a semi-retired cocoa trader, had good words of advice at this week’s Cocoa Merchants Association of America conference in Miami. He advised delegate...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with corn futures down a fraction, soybeans off 1-2 cents and Chicago wheat down about 4 cents. Trading volume was again quite low. The price weak...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25 February-1 March 2019 Domestic grain prices moved in different directions or remained stable, depending on the region. Export prices, however, decreased. Thus, the average milling wheat export price fell another $6/MT to $230/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices dropp...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS In Yemen, a U.N. World Food Program team is said to have reached the grain silos near Hodeida. It reports that the 51,000 MT of wheat stored there are suffering from weevil infection with further condition assessment to follow and that only on...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week as it followed the decline of the EU and U.S. markets. Russia is exporting about 500 KMT per week, bringing the cumulated total since the start of campaign to 29 MMT as of the end of February. The big question is whether it can exp...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were mixed overnight with wheat trying to rally (again), soybeans a bit weaker and corn stuck in between. Trading volume was not impressive. Price weakness became more pervasive during the day session in light volume. At the close, only soyoil and MGEX wheat futures were h...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 February 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated insignificantly, but the average milling wheat export price dropped $6/MT to $236/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices fell to $207-209/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley export price decreased to $221/MT F...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Pakistan’s wheat export tender of last week has reportedly received a poor response. It was said that 12 traders participated, and their offered prices were below what had been anticipated with the highest bid at $219/MT for 25,000 MT an...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview After a few weeks of good activity with strong purchases from China, the markets were very quiet last week as the U.S.-China trade talks kept traders sidelined awaiting the results amid several confusing and vague news reports about their success. Nevertheless, substant...
Market Commentary
Today’s markets faced a number of crosscurrents. Besides spreading in China, African swine fever (ASF) has appeared in Vietnam and could well spread elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Measuring the effect of ASF on hog populations and feed consumption has become difficult if not impossible, but...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 11-15 February 2019 Domestic grain prices either moved in mixed directions or remained stable. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price fell to $242/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices dropped to $208-211/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley export pr...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Desert locust outbreaks in Saudi Arabia and Egypt are a concern for crops. Much rainfall and strong winds are expanding swarms as well as bringing them north from Eritrea and Sudan, a situation that is expected to continue through the rest of...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures markets did very little overnight and again during the day session with volume and volatility in decline. In fact, we would rate today’s market as the dullest so far in 2019. Reflecting the lack of volume, today’s daily trading ranges were collectively among th...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 4-8 February 2019 Domestic grain prices all increased except for a few that remained stable. However, the average milling wheat export price fell $1/MT to $246/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices were unchanged in RUB expression while decreasing in USD expression to $22...
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look
If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAS/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Cairo3a Poultry, a major company in grain trading and poultry production with other interests in agriculture and transportation, has signed a $90 million contract with KarmSolar for a solar project that will supply 100 percent of...
Market Commentary
Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. Russia’s domestic market was about 200 rubles ($3)/MT higher. Its exports are slowing significantly as the higher prices and unofficial export barriers are doing their job. The Egyptian GASC purchased 300 KMT last week...
Market Commentary
Markets were generally better overnight and this morning following Thursday’s pre-USDA report sell-off. Yesterday’s losses were primarily the result of the numerous comments by various U.S. administration officials that the China trade deal isn’t done yet. There was virtually...