Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price was RUB 10,500/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Meanwhile, the average export price for 2019 feed barley dropped to $170/MT FOB Blac...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 June)
Update for 19 June: Prices/data updated through Friday's close. Tweet 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to reflect prices through Friday's close. Launch Information: WPI is proud to introduce our FOB Prices a...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 June)
Update for 19 June 2019: Data updated for all listed routes. Update for 26 April 2019: Weekly data updates have been pushed, along with new routes added from the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Enjoy! Update for 24 April 2019: Thanks for the feedback and suggestions on the app...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Tunisian government will be using drones this year to assess the grain crops as well as to try and identify those who have been setting fire to the wheat crops in parts of the country. However, some locals say only very high temperatures a...
Trump G20 Plan; Trade Policy Potpourri
Trump G20 Plan Donald Trump has been relentless at pressuring other NATO members to meet their commitments in terms of funding the organization’s military capacity. His admonitions have been backed by NATO’s secretary general and major media organizations like the Financial Times. I...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
End of GMO Panic; Contrasts and Irony
End of GMO Panic When genetically modified wheat was curiously found in an Oregon field in 2013, some importers cancelled their shipments, others stepped up inspection of American wheat, and there were of course lawsuits. There were headlines in 2016 when GM wheat was found in in a field in Was...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS This past week has been the post-Ramadan Eid al Fitr period of religious holidays in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and all Muslim businesses were closed either for a number of days or the entire time. As a result, the amount of grai...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week as the hot, dry weather over parts of Russia did not scare it. Weather maps are showing ample soil and subsoil moisture accumulated during April and May in the southern region. High temperatures in June are common there, and the wheat is t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Aswan area is said to have the country’s first outbreak of fall armyworms, and the government is reportedly taking immediate action against this threat. The latest FAO report on Tunisia shows wheat and barley production for...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Chinese demand has been active in the South American FOB market due to the trade war, and premiums firmed up quite a bit in the past few weeks. However, basis dropped slightly last week as China was not active in Argentina. A cargo was traded at 72N for July early in the week...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Reports from Syria indicate that thousands of acres of wheat have been destroyed by fire, attributed to arson by most accounts, and the crop losses are said to be valued at about $6 million. ISIS is said to have taken credit for those fires as...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government reports that it has bought 2.2 MMT of local wheat against a target purchase of 3.6 MMT. Pakistani officials indicate that the local wheat crop will total about 24.3 MMT, down from 25.6 MMT last year, and the stocks are...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The U.S. trade war has been leading the soybean market for several months, but the latest developments (for the worse) have certainly enhanced the market’s focus on it. The Chinese decided to move on Brazilian soybeans last week and secured some Argentine origin a...
Market Commentary
The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Update MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Officials in Iran say that wheat crops in some areas are up 30 percent. Production is expected to total about 14 MMT in 2019, which will enable the country to remain self-sufficient into 2020. As recently as 2014, it had to import up to 35 perc...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Cash Payment Issues The volatility in forex markets and the Argentine peso’s devaluation led to government intervention in the debate between farmers and exporters. On contracts executed in USD, farmers were claiming that they were losing money between the time the forex...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week due to the absence of export demand for old crop as well as the bearish outlook of last Friday’s USDA reports. The USDA estimate for the Russian crop of 77 MMT is probably conservative as most Russian analysts’ numbers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops. Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria will pay about $359/MT for the wheat it purchases from farmers, up nearly $20/MT versus last year’s price. The last crop there was the smallest in 30 years, and it is expected that the country will have to import 1.5 MMT of wheat t...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10 percent to 25 percent by Friday. This suddenly changed the China trade agreement discussion from what most had believed was a done deal to p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Last week Argentina posted a few offers in the local market, although volume was small with the labor strike on Tuesday and Labor Day holiday on Wednesday. Farmers are willing sellers at higher prices. Harvest progress reached 59.3 percent last week, per the Buenos Aires Grai...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 10-14 June 2019 Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) remained within $196-198/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price was RUB 10,500/MT CPT-port Black Sea. Meanwhile, the average export price for 2019 feed barley dropped to $170/MT FOB Blac...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 June)
Update for 19 June: Prices/data updated through Friday's close. Tweet 4 May Update: Pushed a user interface change and improved app responsiveness. Data updated to reflect prices through Friday's close. Launch Information: WPI is proud to introduce our FOB Prices a...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 June)
Update for 19 June 2019: Data updated for all listed routes. Update for 26 April 2019: Weekly data updates have been pushed, along with new routes added from the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Enjoy! Update for 24 April 2019: Thanks for the feedback and suggestions on the app...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Tunisian government will be using drones this year to assess the grain crops as well as to try and identify those who have been setting fire to the wheat crops in parts of the country. However, some locals say only very high temperatures a...
Trump G20 Plan; Trade Policy Potpourri
Trump G20 Plan Donald Trump has been relentless at pressuring other NATO members to meet their commitments in terms of funding the organization’s military capacity. His admonitions have been backed by NATO’s secretary general and major media organizations like the Financial Times. I...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
End of GMO Panic; Contrasts and Irony
End of GMO Panic When genetically modified wheat was curiously found in an Oregon field in 2013, some importers cancelled their shipments, others stepped up inspection of American wheat, and there were of course lawsuits. There were headlines in 2016 when GM wheat was found in in a field in Was...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS This past week has been the post-Ramadan Eid al Fitr period of religious holidays in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and all Muslim businesses were closed either for a number of days or the entire time. As a result, the amount of grai...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was weaker last week as the hot, dry weather over parts of Russia did not scare it. Weather maps are showing ample soil and subsoil moisture accumulated during April and May in the southern region. High temperatures in June are common there, and the wheat is t...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt’s Aswan area is said to have the country’s first outbreak of fall armyworms, and the government is reportedly taking immediate action against this threat. The latest FAO report on Tunisia shows wheat and barley production for...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Chinese demand has been active in the South American FOB market due to the trade war, and premiums firmed up quite a bit in the past few weeks. However, basis dropped slightly last week as China was not active in Argentina. A cargo was traded at 72N for July early in the week...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Reports from Syria indicate that thousands of acres of wheat have been destroyed by fire, attributed to arson by most accounts, and the crop losses are said to be valued at about $6 million. ISIS is said to have taken credit for those fires as...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian government reports that it has bought 2.2 MMT of local wheat against a target purchase of 3.6 MMT. Pakistani officials indicate that the local wheat crop will total about 24.3 MMT, down from 25.6 MMT last year, and the stocks are...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The U.S. trade war has been leading the soybean market for several months, but the latest developments (for the worse) have certainly enhanced the market’s focus on it. The Chinese decided to move on Brazilian soybeans last week and secured some Argentine origin a...
Market Commentary
The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Update MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Officials in Iran say that wheat crops in some areas are up 30 percent. Production is expected to total about 14 MMT in 2019, which will enable the country to remain self-sufficient into 2020. As recently as 2014, it had to import up to 35 perc...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina’s Cash Payment Issues The volatility in forex markets and the Argentine peso’s devaluation led to government intervention in the debate between farmers and exporters. On contracts executed in USD, farmers were claiming that they were losing money between the time the forex...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week due to the absence of export demand for old crop as well as the bearish outlook of last Friday’s USDA reports. The USDA estimate for the Russian crop of 77 MMT is probably conservative as most Russian analysts’ numbers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops. Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria will pay about $359/MT for the wheat it purchases from farmers, up nearly $20/MT versus last year’s price. The last crop there was the smallest in 30 years, and it is expected that the country will have to import 1.5 MMT of wheat t...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10 percent to 25 percent by Friday. This suddenly changed the China trade agreement discussion from what most had believed was a done deal to p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Argentina Last week Argentina posted a few offers in the local market, although volume was small with the labor strike on Tuesday and Labor Day holiday on Wednesday. Farmers are willing sellers at higher prices. Harvest progress reached 59.3 percent last week, per the Buenos Aires Grai...