Oilseed Highlights: Malaysian Biodiesel; Soymeal and DDGS; Argentine Soy Crushers; Pakistan and Cargill
Malaysia to Double Use of Palm-Based Biodiesel The glut and low prices of palm oil have caused the government of Malaysia to double the blending requirement for biodiesel with diesel from the current 10 percent to 20 percent by 2020, according to Minister of Primary Industries Teresa Kok. Oil W...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-11 January 2019 All domestic grain prices (except for milling rye) rose in RUB expression, but the growth in USD expression was significant due to the strengthening ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price increased $2/MT to $240/MT FOB Black Sea, while...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong winds are reportedly causing docking and visibility difficulties due to sand and dust storms. Egypt normally experiences strong khamaseen winds...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The soybean market remains slow. With China very quiet and Brazil currently cheaper than U.S. Gulf, basis continues to fall. The only movement has been for spot positions with the market turning into a carry structure for January onward. Last week there were rumors of a trade at...
Market Commentary
Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user industry (starch and poultry) asked the government of India (GOI) to allow imports. Prices continued to rise at that time, reaching $266/MT at o...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...
Market Commentary
For now, grain and soy markets are mainly about the ongoing trade talks with China, its purchases of soybeans and possibly grain, and South American weather. Even if one gives a bullish interpretation to all these factors, though, futures prices cannot go up forever. The soybean market discover...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EASTMEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria reports that four vessels carrying 80,000 MT of Russian wheat have arrived at its Tartous and Latakia ports. Pakistan is tendering to sell 100,000 MT of wheat for export on 11 January 2019. Participation is expected to be very good with b...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. The holiday period in Russia and Ukraine will continue until the end of this week. Russia’s export pace is expected to decrease significantly in January versus December. The market is still calm as buyers/consumers ant...
Reassuring Thoughts
Human nature veers toward concern over the future, but facts are irrefutable. As noted by Steven Pinker in Enlightenment Now, everything in the world is getting better: longevity, health, physical and economic security, the environment, etc. This is also true of agriculture, trade and the econo...
Market Commentary
The government remains partially closed and apparently will continue to be into 2019. President Trump is dug in over his demand for funding of the proposed Mexican border wall, but he does not have the votes to obtain congressional approval. This leaves the status of the regular USDA reports in...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week. Russia’s domestic prices were $2-6/MT higher in different regions. Meanwhile, it has exported approximately 23 MMT from the start of the campaign, and the range of estimates for the final total is 32-36.5 MMT. The export surplus rem...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded modestly higher overnight following yesterday’s weakness, although trading volume was in a holiday mode. The market was pulled between improving South American weather forecasts and expectations of more Chinese sales announcements. Prices remained firm early i...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Growth in Soymeal Demand
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated a total 1,561,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China last week. USDA also reported additional sales yesterday and today of 1,403,000 MT to that country, bringing the two-week total to 2.964 MMT. Trade sources sug...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco has reportedly reduced the import tariff on grains from Russia to zero, although it has not been a major importer of that origin with only a few wheat shipments from there to date in 2018. Russia does hope that it will import more, and...
Beans versus Cows; USMCA versus Biofuel; U.S. Trade Policy; Hollow Africa Plan; Food Mislabeling
Beans versus Cows This week EU agriculture commissioners are considering the policy proposals for replacing imported oilseeds with newly incentivized, domestically-produced sources of plant-based proteins. This import substitution plan has the support of Europe’s farmers but draws the enm...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The soybeans market was surprised last week when the U.S. government announced that 1.4 MMT of soybeans had been sold to China. There were talks of potential sales up to 4 MMT, which current information seems to indicate have not occurred. Nevertheless, the announcement...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firmer as stocks are decreasing. Russia has already exported 21 MMT since the start of the campaign, and those stocks in the southern region are significantly depleted. The remaining wheat must be transported from areas located far from the ports at a highe...
U.S. Export Prospects Improving
USDA trimmed the U.S. wheat export forecast by 25 million bushels (680,000 MT) in the December WASDE (supply & demand), but that wasn’t a surprise given the 9 percent lag in sales against a year ago. Its revised export goal is an 11 percent increase over last year. Export sales of har...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade featured stronger wheat prices, lower soybean prices and corn near unchanged with only average volume. The soybean market seemed to exhibit “rumor fatigue.” When at last USDA/ FAS announced a sale of 1.13 MMT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting req...
Market Commentary
It is hard to keep track of the rumors flying around concerning Chinese plans to buy U.S. soybeans. Their most common thread has China buying 5-8 MMT, although there are several versions of this rumor. One has Sinograin and COFCO, a state-owned trading company, as the buyers since both would pr...
Oilseed Highlights: Malaysian Biodiesel; Soymeal and DDGS; Argentine Soy Crushers; Pakistan and Cargill
Malaysia to Double Use of Palm-Based Biodiesel The glut and low prices of palm oil have caused the government of Malaysia to double the blending requirement for biodiesel with diesel from the current 10 percent to 20 percent by 2020, according to Minister of Primary Industries Teresa Kok. Oil W...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8-11 January 2019 All domestic grain prices (except for milling rye) rose in RUB expression, but the growth in USD expression was significant due to the strengthening ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat export price increased $2/MT to $240/MT FOB Black Sea, while...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong winds are reportedly causing docking and visibility difficulties due to sand and dust storms. Egypt normally experiences strong khamaseen winds...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Brazil The soybean market remains slow. With China very quiet and Brazil currently cheaper than U.S. Gulf, basis continues to fall. The only movement has been for spot positions with the market turning into a carry structure for January onward. Last week there were rumors of a trade at...
Market Commentary
Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user industry (starch and poultry) asked the government of India (GOI) to allow imports. Prices continued to rise at that time, reaching $266/MT at o...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...
Market Commentary
For now, grain and soy markets are mainly about the ongoing trade talks with China, its purchases of soybeans and possibly grain, and South American weather. Even if one gives a bullish interpretation to all these factors, though, futures prices cannot go up forever. The soybean market discover...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EASTMEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Syria reports that four vessels carrying 80,000 MT of Russian wheat have arrived at its Tartous and Latakia ports. Pakistan is tendering to sell 100,000 MT of wheat for export on 11 January 2019. Participation is expected to be very good with b...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market remained about unchanged last week. The holiday period in Russia and Ukraine will continue until the end of this week. Russia’s export pace is expected to decrease significantly in January versus December. The market is still calm as buyers/consumers ant...
Reassuring Thoughts
Human nature veers toward concern over the future, but facts are irrefutable. As noted by Steven Pinker in Enlightenment Now, everything in the world is getting better: longevity, health, physical and economic security, the environment, etc. This is also true of agriculture, trade and the econo...
Market Commentary
The government remains partially closed and apparently will continue to be into 2019. President Trump is dug in over his demand for funding of the proposed Mexican border wall, but he does not have the votes to obtain congressional approval. This leaves the status of the regular USDA reports in...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was firmer last week. Russia’s domestic prices were $2-6/MT higher in different regions. Meanwhile, it has exported approximately 23 MMT from the start of the campaign, and the range of estimates for the final total is 32-36.5 MMT. The export surplus rem...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures traded modestly higher overnight following yesterday’s weakness, although trading volume was in a holiday mode. The market was pulled between improving South American weather forecasts and expectations of more Chinese sales announcements. Prices remained firm early i...
Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Exports; Growth in Soymeal Demand
Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated a total 1,561,000 MT of soybeans were sold to China last week. USDA also reported additional sales yesterday and today of 1,403,000 MT to that country, bringing the two-week total to 2.964 MMT. Trade sources sug...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco has reportedly reduced the import tariff on grains from Russia to zero, although it has not been a major importer of that origin with only a few wheat shipments from there to date in 2018. Russia does hope that it will import more, and...
Beans versus Cows; USMCA versus Biofuel; U.S. Trade Policy; Hollow Africa Plan; Food Mislabeling
Beans versus Cows This week EU agriculture commissioners are considering the policy proposals for replacing imported oilseeds with newly incentivized, domestically-produced sources of plant-based proteins. This import substitution plan has the support of Europe’s farmers but draws the enm...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview The soybeans market was surprised last week when the U.S. government announced that 1.4 MMT of soybeans had been sold to China. There were talks of potential sales up to 4 MMT, which current information seems to indicate have not occurred. Nevertheless, the announcement...
Southeast Europe Regional Analysis
Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firmer as stocks are decreasing. Russia has already exported 21 MMT since the start of the campaign, and those stocks in the southern region are significantly depleted. The remaining wheat must be transported from areas located far from the ports at a highe...
U.S. Export Prospects Improving
USDA trimmed the U.S. wheat export forecast by 25 million bushels (680,000 MT) in the December WASDE (supply & demand), but that wasn’t a surprise given the 9 percent lag in sales against a year ago. Its revised export goal is an 11 percent increase over last year. Export sales of har...
Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis
Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...
Market Commentary
Overnight futures trade featured stronger wheat prices, lower soybean prices and corn near unchanged with only average volume. The soybean market seemed to exhibit “rumor fatigue.” When at last USDA/ FAS announced a sale of 1.13 MMT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting req...
Market Commentary
It is hard to keep track of the rumors flying around concerning Chinese plans to buy U.S. soybeans. Their most common thread has China buying 5-8 MMT, although there are several versions of this rumor. One has Sinograin and COFCO, a state-owned trading company, as the buyers since both would pr...