World Perspectives

Recent North America Analysis

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last month.  USDA reduced global oilseed production by 2.0 million tons to 604.2 million on lower rapeseed, cottonseed, and soybean production.&...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA raised U.S. soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20.  With projections for exports unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean production is at 4.14 billion bushels, up 10 million on increased harvested area.  Harvested area, forecast at 83.0 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.2 million from last month.  The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 49.8 bu...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. corn is for lower ending stocks.  For 2020/21, corn production is forecast 995 million bushels lower based on reduced planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage report.  The national average corn yield is unchanged at 178.5 bushels per a...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

Small, Slow and Inefficient

As noted previously, there is increasing attention to what a Biden Administration will mean to both agriculture and broader economic policy. It is not so much what Mr. Biden thinks, since he has proven to be a lifelong moderate, but rather the swirl of political forces around him that deserve a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It seemed clear at the start of the day that this a weather market, and that today’s WASDE would contain few surprises. For the most part that remained true after the report was released and yet some things are inexplicable.  For example, the corn crop is threated by hot and dry weat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.4475/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9075/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $300.1/short ton, down $5.3...

livestock

USDA Reports: Protein Production Recovery, Global Trade Decline

Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast up from last month. Last month’s WASDE total beef, pork and broiler production estimate for 2020 was bumped up to be 0.05 percent greater than 2019. This month it is projected to be 1.7 percent ahead of last...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Wheatie Surprise

THE OPEN November beans:  1/4 lower December meal:  .70 lower December soyoil:  19 higher December corn:  1 lower September wheat:  3 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with a firmer note in wheat on reported sales to China.  Traders were back to buying oils...

livestock

Cattle Price Recovery Boosts Cow/Calf Profitability

Declining feed costs and higher prices for feeder cattle and cull cows have lifted WPI’s expectations of cow/calf profitability for 2020. Compared to our forecast one month ago, the “average” producer in Kansas is expected to lose $1.94/cow unit in 2020, an $18/cow unit improv...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report

SPREADS Sep. crush trades top 76.35c/bu while oilshare is a steady 32.33%.  Spreads are firmer with Sep/Dec corn narrowing into 7 3/4c from 8 1/2c.  Sep/Dec wheat trades into 4 1/4c from 5 1/4c.  August /Nov beans narrows into 3 1/2c from 5 1/2c.  Sep wheat/corn trades from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Weather More than WASDE

GOOD MORNING, It is report day and all the markets have been on good rallies.  Report time is 11:00 central.  The crop yields are not expected to change much, as this report typically does not reflect such historically.  The lower and surprising June acreage numbers will be incor...

Future Ag Policy; English Accent

Future Ag Policy Presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden released his Build Back Better economic agenda and while it ignores some progressive demands such as a Green New Deal, it is still Trumpish in that it holds a “Buy America” focus. It would use federal procureme...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

There was lots of gnashing of teeth as market calculations swung between possibly threatening weather conditions, seeming positive demand and a WASDE report tomorrow that may or may not spring a surprise or two. This is the critical time of the campaign for corn, and it is not a neutral period...

livestock

Livestock Round Up

The May export numbers were released this week; plant shutdowns which hit beef and pork packing plants reduced export totals month over month compared to April. Beef was particularly impacted and dropped to the lowest monthly value in 10 years. Beef export value per head of fed slaughter averag...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.57/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.015/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $305.4/short ton, up $3.6 from yes...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Aquaculture Investment; Paraguay Soybeans

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed a major increase in U.S. export sales of soybeans both for the current marketing year and MY 2020/21. Soybean exports also were up from last week. Net soybean export sales in the week ending 2 July totaled 952,200 MT for...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Position Evening Ahead of Report

THE OPEN November beans:  10 1/2 higher December meal:  4.40 higher December soyoil:  14 higher December corn:  6 3/4 higher September wheat:  4 higher The markets opened as expected with further short-covering in grains and technical buying in wheat.  Traders retu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

The Dog Days of Summer

The ancient Greeks associated the rising brightness in the nighttime sky of Sirius, the Dog Star, with the arrival of summer heat and humidity. Sirius would become the brightest star in the sky about mid-July normally coinciding with the hottest, most uncomfortable part of summer. The Northern...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 326,100 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2020/2021.   Corn:  Net sales of 599,200 MT for 2019/2020 were up 66 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Soybeans:  Net sales of 952...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Chop Ahead of the Report

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 76.89c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.43%.   Sep/Dec corn narrows into 7 1/4c from 8c, while Sep/Dec wheat trades into 2c from 5 3/4c.  Sep wheat /corn trades from 1.73 1/2c down to 1.66c.  Sep/Dec meal trades from $5.80 to $5.20.   PAL...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Weather Push

GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer this as temperatures next week are forecast to be hotter than this week. Rains are crossing parts of the Midwest, but it is not a soaking event that alleviates all dryness.  Spreads are mostly firmer.   The wheat rally continues as more shorts cove...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last month.  USDA reduced global oilseed production by 2.0 million tons to 604.2 million on lower rapeseed, cottonseed, and soybean production.&...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA raised U.S. soybean crush by 15 million bushels - reflecting an increase in domestic soybean meal disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20.  With projections for exports unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for U.S. soybean production is at 4.14 billion bushels, up 10 million on increased harvested area.  Harvested area, forecast at 83.0 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.2 million from last month.  The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 49.8 bu...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. corn is for lower ending stocks.  For 2020/21, corn production is forecast 995 million bushels lower based on reduced planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage report.  The national average corn yield is unchanged at 178.5 bushels per a...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

Small, Slow and Inefficient

As noted previously, there is increasing attention to what a Biden Administration will mean to both agriculture and broader economic policy. It is not so much what Mr. Biden thinks, since he has proven to be a lifelong moderate, but rather the swirl of political forces around him that deserve a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It seemed clear at the start of the day that this a weather market, and that today’s WASDE would contain few surprises. For the most part that remained true after the report was released and yet some things are inexplicable.  For example, the corn crop is threated by hot and dry weat...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.4475/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.34/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.9075/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $300.1/short ton, down $5.3...

livestock

USDA Reports: Protein Production Recovery, Global Trade Decline

Today’s WASDE showed USDA’s red meat and broiler production forecast up from last month. Last month’s WASDE total beef, pork and broiler production estimate for 2020 was bumped up to be 0.05 percent greater than 2019. This month it is projected to be 1.7 percent ahead of last...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Wheatie Surprise

THE OPEN November beans:  1/4 lower December meal:  .70 lower December soyoil:  19 higher December corn:  1 lower September wheat:  3 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with a firmer note in wheat on reported sales to China.  Traders were back to buying oils...

livestock

Cattle Price Recovery Boosts Cow/Calf Profitability

Declining feed costs and higher prices for feeder cattle and cull cows have lifted WPI’s expectations of cow/calf profitability for 2020. Compared to our forecast one month ago, the “average” producer in Kansas is expected to lose $1.94/cow unit in 2020, an $18/cow unit improv...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Mixed Ahead of Report

SPREADS Sep. crush trades top 76.35c/bu while oilshare is a steady 32.33%.  Spreads are firmer with Sep/Dec corn narrowing into 7 3/4c from 8 1/2c.  Sep/Dec wheat trades into 4 1/4c from 5 1/4c.  August /Nov beans narrows into 3 1/2c from 5 1/2c.  Sep wheat/corn trades from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Weather More than WASDE

GOOD MORNING, It is report day and all the markets have been on good rallies.  Report time is 11:00 central.  The crop yields are not expected to change much, as this report typically does not reflect such historically.  The lower and surprising June acreage numbers will be incor...

Future Ag Policy; English Accent

Future Ag Policy Presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden released his Build Back Better economic agenda and while it ignores some progressive demands such as a Green New Deal, it is still Trumpish in that it holds a “Buy America” focus. It would use federal procureme...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

There was lots of gnashing of teeth as market calculations swung between possibly threatening weather conditions, seeming positive demand and a WASDE report tomorrow that may or may not spring a surprise or two. This is the critical time of the campaign for corn, and it is not a neutral period...

livestock

Livestock Round Up

The May export numbers were released this week; plant shutdowns which hit beef and pork packing plants reduced export totals month over month compared to April. Beef was particularly impacted and dropped to the lowest monthly value in 10 years. Beef export value per head of fed slaughter averag...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.57/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.015/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $305.4/short ton, up $3.6 from yes...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Export Sales; Aquaculture Investment; Paraguay Soybeans

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report showed a major increase in U.S. export sales of soybeans both for the current marketing year and MY 2020/21. Soybean exports also were up from last week. Net soybean export sales in the week ending 2 July totaled 952,200 MT for...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Position Evening Ahead of Report

THE OPEN November beans:  10 1/2 higher December meal:  4.40 higher December soyoil:  14 higher December corn:  6 3/4 higher September wheat:  4 higher The markets opened as expected with further short-covering in grains and technical buying in wheat.  Traders retu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

The Dog Days of Summer

The ancient Greeks associated the rising brightness in the nighttime sky of Sirius, the Dog Star, with the arrival of summer heat and humidity. Sirius would become the brightest star in the sky about mid-July normally coinciding with the hottest, most uncomfortable part of summer. The Northern...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 326,100 metric tons (MT) were reported for delivery in marketing year 2020/2021.   Corn:  Net sales of 599,200 MT for 2019/2020 were up 66 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Soybeans:  Net sales of 952...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Chop Ahead of the Report

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 76.89c/bu while oilshare trades to 32.43%.   Sep/Dec corn narrows into 7 1/4c from 8c, while Sep/Dec wheat trades into 2c from 5 3/4c.  Sep wheat /corn trades from 1.73 1/2c down to 1.66c.  Sep/Dec meal trades from $5.80 to $5.20.   PAL...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Weather Push

GOOD MORNING, Prices are firmer this as temperatures next week are forecast to be hotter than this week. Rains are crossing parts of the Midwest, but it is not a soaking event that alleviates all dryness.  Spreads are mostly firmer.   The wheat rally continues as more shorts cove...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat was the star of the CBOT as declining EU and Black Sea production estimates sparked short covering and risk-on trade. Yield prospects across Southern Russia have been disappointing, furthering the CBOT rally. Corn was eventually pulled higher by the wheat market while the soy complex rema...

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