World Perspectives

Recent North America Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire

The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...

A Look at Agriculture Funding Three Ways

There are three key pots of money for agriculture support: a second round of CFAP, additional relief for COVID, and the regular budget. One has been settled and two remain in limbo in Congress. Here is the run-down: First, the CFAP 2 payment schedules were released today from USDA. President Tr...

ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act

ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.75/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $342.1/short ton, up $6.8 from ye...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Profit-taking

THE OPEN November beans:  9 higher December meal:  3.50 higher December soyoil:  7 higher December corn:  1 higher December wheat:  2 1/4 higher Prices opened as expected with soyoil futures trading into the red at the start of the day and overbought charts prompting ea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Buying the Open

GOOD MORNING, The charts continue to throw off bullish technical signals, so the funds are buying the open and running with it.  The continuing reports of Chinese business has its corollary year based in 2016, also a very big bean buying year that saw the bean/corn ratio strengthen through...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Technically Higher

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 92.15c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.24%.  Dec/March corn trades to 8 1/4c from 8 3/4c, while Dec/Dec narrows to 11 1/2c from 15c.  Nov/Jan beans trades back into 2 3/4c from 3 3/4c, while Jan/March inverts to 9 1/2c from 7c.  Dec wheat/corn trades fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Gambling on China

The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...

Post-November Economy; Disparate Fears

Post-November Economy Fiscal recklessness has its limit, and this will come home to roost. Having already borrowed and spent $3 trillion to revive the COVID-coma economy, Congressional Democrats want to spend another $2.2 trillion subsidizing states and cities, and Democratic presidential candi...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Dairy Market Still Searching for Balance

The final 2019 dairy utilization data from USDA released this week shows that per capita conumption of milk is at an historic high of 650 pounds. Annual dairy consumption increased by 12.4 percent from 2017 to 2109, while fluid milk, the highest priced use of milk dropped. The annual increase...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.285/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $335.3/short ton, up $9.6 fro...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Changing China’s Planting Priorities; August Soy Crush Report; U.S. Soy Sales

China Urged to Prioritize Corn, Wheat and Rice Production Over Soybean Production Speakers at this year’s China Soybean Industry International Summit Forum urged the government of China to stop prioritizing the plantings of soybeans to supply the animal food market and instead allow more...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Still No Reversal

THE OPEN November beans:  2 1/4 lower December meal:  .40 lower December soyoil:  3 lower December corn:  1 14/ lower December wheat:  1 3/4 lower The markets opened as called and jumped either side of even with beans and corn supported by good export sales and more bus...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 335,700 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn:  Net sales of 1,609,200 MT for 2020/2021 were primarily for unknown destinations (360,200 MT), China (359,700 MT, including 140,0...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Lower Open on Profit-taking

GOOD MORNING, Prices were stronger with beans rallying higher as more rumors of Chinese business hit the wires.  The outlook for China's bean and corn imports continues to be friendly for prices, particularly since China's production outlook was lowered due to multiple typhoons impacting c...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Market Support

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 88.99c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.91%.  Dec/Dec corn trades from 16 1/2c back out to 18 3/4c.  Dec/March corn trades from 8 3/4c to 9 1/4c.  Nov/Jan bean spread trades from 3 3/4c to 4 1/2c.  Dec/March meal from $1.10 out to $2.00.  Dec w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

More Questions for Grain Markets

Grain and soy futures markets often pose more questions than answers. In terms of trade volume and volatility that is a good thing since it is questions not answers that fuel markets. In that sense last week’s WASDE answered a few questions at least temporarily but raised many more. USDA&...

Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle

Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberalized trade. She called for settling the current bilateral disputes like Airbus/Boeing, plus working together on WTO reforms and China. That ma...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads

The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7175/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.1975 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $325.7/short ton, up $6.5 fro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Bull Run Continues

  THE OPEN November beans:  6 1/2 higher December meal;  3.90 higher December soyoil:  15 higher December corn:  1 higher December wheat:  1 1/2 lower The markets turned higher after the start of the trading session with beans in the lead again.  December soyo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Futures Scream Higher; Cash Markets Also on Fire

The CBOT continues to scream higher with Chinese buying of U.S. corn and soybeans underpinning prices. Managed money funds have been aggressive buyers as technical analysis has shown few, if any, reasons to be bearish or sell a long position. The rally is not isolated to the futures market eith...

A Look at Agriculture Funding Three Ways

There are three key pots of money for agriculture support: a second round of CFAP, additional relief for COVID, and the regular budget. One has been settled and two remain in limbo in Congress. Here is the run-down: First, the CFAP 2 payment schedules were released today from USDA. President Tr...

ICT’s Importance; Future U.S. and EU Agriculture; LEADS Act

ICT’s Importance A decline in the growth rate of total factor productivity is common in mature economies even as government policies seek to accelerate it as a means of increasing wealth. The EU is seeking to tax America’s information and communications technology (ICT) companies wh...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.785/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.75/bushel, up $0.1875 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.435/bushel, up $0.15 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $342.1/short ton, up $6.8 from ye...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments for 17 September 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be interes...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 18 September)

Ocean Freight Comments - 17 September 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It was another one of those weeks where Dry-Bulk freight tried to rally early but was forced to retreat at the week’s end. The paper trade is better supported than the physical market and it will be int...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Profit-taking

THE OPEN November beans:  9 higher December meal:  3.50 higher December soyoil:  7 higher December corn:  1 higher December wheat:  2 1/4 higher Prices opened as expected with soyoil futures trading into the red at the start of the day and overbought charts prompting ea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Buying the Open

GOOD MORNING, The charts continue to throw off bullish technical signals, so the funds are buying the open and running with it.  The continuing reports of Chinese business has its corollary year based in 2016, also a very big bean buying year that saw the bean/corn ratio strengthen through...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Technically Higher

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 92.15c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.24%.  Dec/March corn trades to 8 1/4c from 8 3/4c, while Dec/Dec narrows to 11 1/2c from 15c.  Nov/Jan beans trades back into 2 3/4c from 3 3/4c, while Jan/March inverts to 9 1/2c from 7c.  Dec wheat/corn trades fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Gambling on China

The market has been on a tear and it is all based on current demand from China and speculation that it will continue. Current demand prompts news articles about U.S. infrastructure capacity to service it, prospective future demand has funds lined up to go longer. The fundamentals leave us quest...

Post-November Economy; Disparate Fears

Post-November Economy Fiscal recklessness has its limit, and this will come home to roost. Having already borrowed and spent $3 trillion to revive the COVID-coma economy, Congressional Democrats want to spend another $2.2 trillion subsidizing states and cities, and Democratic presidential candi...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Dairy Market Still Searching for Balance

The final 2019 dairy utilization data from USDA released this week shows that per capita conumption of milk is at an historic high of 650 pounds. Annual dairy consumption increased by 12.4 percent from 2017 to 2109, while fluid milk, the highest priced use of milk dropped. The annual increase...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, up $0.1425 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.285/bushel, up $0.1725 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $335.3/short ton, up $9.6 fro...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Changing China’s Planting Priorities; August Soy Crush Report; U.S. Soy Sales

China Urged to Prioritize Corn, Wheat and Rice Production Over Soybean Production Speakers at this year’s China Soybean Industry International Summit Forum urged the government of China to stop prioritizing the plantings of soybeans to supply the animal food market and instead allow more...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Still No Reversal

THE OPEN November beans:  2 1/4 lower December meal:  .40 lower December soyoil:  3 lower December corn:  1 14/ lower December wheat:  1 3/4 lower The markets opened as called and jumped either side of even with beans and corn supported by good export sales and more bus...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 335,700 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Corn:  Net sales of 1,609,200 MT for 2020/2021 were primarily for unknown destinations (360,200 MT), China (359,700 MT, including 140,0...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Lower Open on Profit-taking

GOOD MORNING, Prices were stronger with beans rallying higher as more rumors of Chinese business hit the wires.  The outlook for China's bean and corn imports continues to be friendly for prices, particularly since China's production outlook was lowered due to multiple typhoons impacting c...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Market Support

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 88.99c/bu while oilshare trades to 34.91%.  Dec/Dec corn trades from 16 1/2c back out to 18 3/4c.  Dec/March corn trades from 8 3/4c to 9 1/4c.  Nov/Jan bean spread trades from 3 3/4c to 4 1/2c.  Dec/March meal from $1.10 out to $2.00.  Dec w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

More Questions for Grain Markets

Grain and soy futures markets often pose more questions than answers. In terms of trade volume and volatility that is a good thing since it is questions not answers that fuel markets. In that sense last week’s WASDE answered a few questions at least temporarily but raised many more. USDA&...

Previous Status Quo; Helping or Hurting; Regulatory Cycle

Previous Status Quo EU Director General for Trade Sabine Weyland says bilateral relations with the U.S. need to be improved, but not through more liberalized trade. She called for settling the current bilateral disputes like Airbus/Boeing, plus working together on WTO reforms and China. That ma...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies on Chinese Buying (again); Historic Soybean Spreads

The CBOT drifted lower overnight with corn and soybeans testing technical support. That weakness was short-lived in soybeans, however, as rumors of Chinese purchases helped the market firm heading into the morning’s opening bell. The day session corn, soybeans and wheat jump higher at the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.7175/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.42/bushel, up $0.0375 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.1125/bushel, up $0.1975 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $325.7/short ton, up $6.5 fro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Bull Run Continues

  THE OPEN November beans:  6 1/2 higher December meal;  3.90 higher December soyoil:  15 higher December corn:  1 higher December wheat:  1 1/2 lower The markets turned higher after the start of the trading session with beans in the lead again.  December soyo...

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