World Perspectives

Recent North America Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...

Trade Compensation Legs; WTO Developments; Bad but Getting Better

Trade Compensation Legs The Trump administration has approved a second tranche of trade mitigation payments to U.S. farmers and asserts that it is the final one. The Office of Management and Budget was reluctant to grant the payments in the first place, and its new director, Russell Vought, wil...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: South American Dryness; NOPA Crush; Export Discrepancy; China Soy Purchase

Escalating Drought in Paraguay and Brazil Over the past few months, the soybean market has understandably been dominated by the U.S-China trade dispute. However, there should be greater focus on the evolving dry weather situation in Brazil and Paraguay that will likely reduce their soybean outp...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Straws in the Wind

With the Christmas and New Year holidays looming, this is the last full week for trading of grain and soy futures markets in 2018. Following early closures on 24 December and 31 December, they will then be closed on 25 December and 1 January. The holiday mood seems to have settled into the mark...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.855/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.3275/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soymeal closed at $310.4/short ton, up $1.3 from...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Ag Commodities Shrug while Crude Oil is Hammered

Corn and soybean futures were higher while wheat market dropped lower in unenthusiastic trade. Wheat has a bullish technical story, however, and could see a rally in the very near-term. Cattle futures remain supported by non-commercial buying ahead of the Cattle on Feed report while hog futures...

Lame-Duck Congress Deadlines: Budget and Biodiesel Tax Credit

Congress faces a midnight Friday deadline to pass an omnibus spending bill that funds seven agencies in the federal government, including USDA. Any government shutdown resulting from a failure to do so would only be partial, however, as it would only affect those entities since appropriations b...

wheat feed-grains

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco has reportedly reduced the import tariff on grains from Russia to zero, although it has not been a major importer of that origin with only a few wheat shipments from there to date in 2018. Russia does hope that it will import more, and...

Beans versus Cows; USMCA versus Biofuel; U.S. Trade Policy; Hollow Africa Plan; Food Mislabeling

Beans versus Cows This week EU agriculture commissioners are considering the policy proposals for replacing imported oilseeds with newly incentivized, domestically-produced sources of plant-based proteins. This import substitution plan has the support of Europe’s farmers but draws the enm...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Insane Consumption Growth

World crop production slipped in 2018 from the record levels reached in the previous five years, which masked the fact that world consumption also set records in each of those same years. World soybean production was a record again in 2018, but world production of corn and wheat fell as did tha...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.84/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0475/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soymeal closed at $309.1/short ton, up $1.8 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat, corn and soybean markets started higher Sunday night, and they held those small gains throughout the entire session. The relatively light volume then continued through today to start the week before Christmas. The market had been expecting an announcement of additional soybean export sal...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The soybeans market was surprised last week when the U.S. government announced that 1.4 MMT of soybeans had been sold to China. There were talks of potential sales up to 4 MMT, which current information seems to indicate have not occurred. Nevertheless, the announcement...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Smile! Soybeans Neutral After China’s Return

Corn options traders remain bullish even after two weeks of sideways trading. While the market is likely to need fulfillment of the 3 December chart gap before moving higher, traders remain bullishly positioned. Interestingly, after China’s semi-official return to the U.S. soybean market,...

Democrats Organizing for the 116th Congress

Organizing of the Democratic caucuses in the Senate and House is taking shape for the 116th Congress as the slates of committee chairmen for the House and ranking minority members for the Senate have been selected. Recall that on 7 December WPI reported some opposition from environmental activi...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firmer as stocks are decreasing. Russia has already exported 21 MMT since the start of the campaign, and those stocks in the southern region are significantly depleted. The remaining wheat must be transported from areas located far from the ports at a highe...

Paying the Bill for the Farm Bill

The final conference report farm bill, which is now on the president’s desk awaiting signature, totals $428 billion for its 2019-2023 authorization period; most references in the media to a $867 billion cost are based on a 10-year baseline for the five-year bill. Because of the Balanced B...

SPS Minus Minus; Transatlantic Food Differences; Weighing Pressure on China

SPS Minus Minus U.S. agriculture groups responded to a U.S. request for comments on what should be the objectives in negotiating a transatlantic trade agreement, and their focus was on the usual suspect – sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers. Europe’s current technical barriers...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn was higher with soybeans up slightly and wheat mixed in the Thursday night session. Trading volume was fairly strong overnight. This morning USDA announced sales of another 300,000 MT of soybeans to China plus 130,000 MT to “unknown” and 125,000 MT of corn to Japan. There is st...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8475/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.005/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soymeal closed at $307.3/short ton, down $1.2 from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

U.S. Export Prospects Improving

USDA trimmed the U.S. wheat export forecast by 25 million bushels (680,000 MT) in the December WASDE (supply & demand), but that wasn’t a surprise given the 9 percent lag in sales against a year ago. Its revised export goal is an 11 percent increase over last year. Export sales of har...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soy Purchases; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Brazil Prepared

China Purchases U.S. Soybeans China has followed through on its commitment to President Trump with a purchase of U.S. soybeans. Yesterday USDA announced that private exporters reported selling 1.13 MMT to that country. USDA then today announced that another 300,000 MT were sold to Chinese buyer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight futures trade featured stronger wheat prices, lower soybean prices and corn near unchanged with only average volume. The soybean market seemed to exhibit “rumor fatigue.” When at last USDA/ FAS announced a sale of 1.13 MMT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting req...

Unveiling Good and Bad; Trump’s Effect?; The Shutdown Wolf

Unveiling Good and Bad Members of the European Parliament voted 427–172 to obligate the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to publish all relevant scientific study data ahead of its decisions. This contrasts with those in the U.S. who want to stop the Trump administration from making a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The overnight session opened with little price direction. Grain and soy prices were down just slightly, although they recovered enough to trade in mixed fashion but very light volume. At the morning recess, corn and soybeans were in slightly positive territory, but wheat was a little weaker. Th...

Trade Compensation Legs; WTO Developments; Bad but Getting Better

Trade Compensation Legs The Trump administration has approved a second tranche of trade mitigation payments to U.S. farmers and asserts that it is the final one. The Office of Management and Budget was reluctant to grant the payments in the first place, and its new director, Russell Vought, wil...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: South American Dryness; NOPA Crush; Export Discrepancy; China Soy Purchase

Escalating Drought in Paraguay and Brazil Over the past few months, the soybean market has understandably been dominated by the U.S-China trade dispute. However, there should be greater focus on the evolving dry weather situation in Brazil and Paraguay that will likely reduce their soybean outp...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Straws in the Wind

With the Christmas and New Year holidays looming, this is the last full week for trading of grain and soy futures markets in 2018. Following early closures on 24 December and 31 December, they will then be closed on 25 December and 1 January. The holiday mood seems to have settled into the mark...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.855/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.3275/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0775/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soymeal closed at $310.4/short ton, up $1.3 from...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Closing Bell Wrap-Up: Ag Commodities Shrug while Crude Oil is Hammered

Corn and soybean futures were higher while wheat market dropped lower in unenthusiastic trade. Wheat has a bullish technical story, however, and could see a rally in the very near-term. Cattle futures remain supported by non-commercial buying ahead of the Cattle on Feed report while hog futures...

Lame-Duck Congress Deadlines: Budget and Biodiesel Tax Credit

Congress faces a midnight Friday deadline to pass an omnibus spending bill that funds seven agencies in the federal government, including USDA. Any government shutdown resulting from a failure to do so would only be partial, however, as it would only affect those entities since appropriations b...

wheat feed-grains

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Morocco has reportedly reduced the import tariff on grains from Russia to zero, although it has not been a major importer of that origin with only a few wheat shipments from there to date in 2018. Russia does hope that it will import more, and...

Beans versus Cows; USMCA versus Biofuel; U.S. Trade Policy; Hollow Africa Plan; Food Mislabeling

Beans versus Cows This week EU agriculture commissioners are considering the policy proposals for replacing imported oilseeds with newly incentivized, domestically-produced sources of plant-based proteins. This import substitution plan has the support of Europe’s farmers but draws the enm...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Insane Consumption Growth

World crop production slipped in 2018 from the record levels reached in the previous five years, which masked the fact that world consumption also set records in each of those same years. World soybean production was a record again in 2018, but world production of corn and wheat fell as did tha...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.84/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.3525/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.0475/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soymeal closed at $309.1/short ton, up $1.8 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Wheat, corn and soybean markets started higher Sunday night, and they held those small gains throughout the entire session. The relatively light volume then continued through today to start the week before Christmas. The market had been expecting an announcement of additional soybean export sal...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview The soybeans market was surprised last week when the U.S. government announced that 1.4 MMT of soybeans had been sold to China. There were talks of potential sales up to 4 MMT, which current information seems to indicate have not occurred. Nevertheless, the announcement...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Smile! Soybeans Neutral After China’s Return

Corn options traders remain bullish even after two weeks of sideways trading. While the market is likely to need fulfillment of the 3 December chart gap before moving higher, traders remain bullishly positioned. Interestingly, after China’s semi-official return to the U.S. soybean market,...

Democrats Organizing for the 116th Congress

Organizing of the Democratic caucuses in the Senate and House is taking shape for the 116th Congress as the slates of committee chairmen for the House and ranking minority members for the Senate have been selected. Recall that on 7 December WPI reported some opposition from environmental activi...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market is firmer as stocks are decreasing. Russia has already exported 21 MMT since the start of the campaign, and those stocks in the southern region are significantly depleted. The remaining wheat must be transported from areas located far from the ports at a highe...

Paying the Bill for the Farm Bill

The final conference report farm bill, which is now on the president’s desk awaiting signature, totals $428 billion for its 2019-2023 authorization period; most references in the media to a $867 billion cost are based on a 10-year baseline for the five-year bill. Because of the Balanced B...

SPS Minus Minus; Transatlantic Food Differences; Weighing Pressure on China

SPS Minus Minus U.S. agriculture groups responded to a U.S. request for comments on what should be the objectives in negotiating a transatlantic trade agreement, and their focus was on the usual suspect – sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers. Europe’s current technical barriers...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn was higher with soybeans up slightly and wheat mixed in the Thursday night session. Trading volume was fairly strong overnight. This morning USDA announced sales of another 300,000 MT of soybeans to China plus 130,000 MT to “unknown” and 125,000 MT of corn to Japan. There is st...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.8475/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 19 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.005/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Jan 19 Soymeal closed at $307.3/short ton, down $1.2 from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

U.S. Export Prospects Improving

USDA trimmed the U.S. wheat export forecast by 25 million bushels (680,000 MT) in the December WASDE (supply & demand), but that wasn’t a surprise given the 9 percent lag in sales against a year ago. Its revised export goal is an 11 percent increase over last year. Export sales of har...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: China’s Soy Purchases; U.S. Soy Export Sales; Brazil Prepared

China Purchases U.S. Soybeans China has followed through on its commitment to President Trump with a purchase of U.S. soybeans. Yesterday USDA announced that private exporters reported selling 1.13 MMT to that country. USDA then today announced that another 300,000 MT were sold to Chinese buyer...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight futures trade featured stronger wheat prices, lower soybean prices and corn near unchanged with only average volume. The soybean market seemed to exhibit “rumor fatigue.” When at last USDA/ FAS announced a sale of 1.13 MMT of soybeans to China under the daily reporting req...

Unveiling Good and Bad; Trump’s Effect?; The Shutdown Wolf

Unveiling Good and Bad Members of the European Parliament voted 427–172 to obligate the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to publish all relevant scientific study data ahead of its decisions. This contrasts with those in the U.S. who want to stop the Trump administration from making a...

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