World Perspectives

Recent North America Analysis

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price outlook is projected at 45.0 cents per pound, up 4 cents. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean meal price outlook is unchanged at $400 per short ton...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

U.S. soybean outlook is for higher exports, lower crush, residual use, and seed use.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast.  The season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.25 per bushel, up 10 cents...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

U.S. corn outlook is for greater feed and residual use, increased corn used for ethanol production, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels and exports are increased 75 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.3...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.  Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million.  Exports are unchanged.  Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks

The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...

Problem Solved; Cost of Food Sovereignty

Problem Solved The UN hosts a Food Systems Summit later this year intended to promote progress on the organization’s sustainable development goals and other food system “problems.” The Summit’s website bravely asserts that, “The good news is that we know what we ne...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

Biden Appropriations Request for Agriculture

The Biden Administration Office of Management and Budget sent a partial budget plan to Capitol Hill this morning. The proposal is an outline of funding requests in annually appropriated programs referred to as discretionary spending. Ongoing programs authorized by permanent legislation, such as...

Production Priority over Consumption

Americans consume more than the dietary guidelines recommend for meat and grains while under-consuming fruit and vegetables. Vegetable consumption has been rising and is now at around 70 percent of recommended levels. This has been helped in part by fresh, low-cost supplies from Mexico. The U.S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Corn Supported; Soy Holds

THE OPEN May beans:  1 lower May meal:  1.40 higher May soyoil:  35 lower May corna;  2 1/2 higher May wheat:  5 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with further gains in wheat on short-covering.  Wheat prices corrected sharply after trading above moving aver...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Report Day!

GOOD MORNING, Report day!  At 11:00 central time traders will see how the new carry-out levels and SA production estimates impact prices.  Funds seemed to be onto something yesterday, with corn prices accelerating from the start of the day.  As mentioned before, fund buying would...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Bull Flags, Ascending Triangles

SPREADS July crush trads to 60.25c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.23%.  Spreads are slightly weaker for July/Nov inverse, trading down to 1.33 1/4c, while May/July inverse trades from 5-6c.  July/Dec meal trades from $18.00 inverse to $16.10, while May/July trades from $3.40 out to $3...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Setting Up Surprise

Traders say they do not like surprises but they seem to be setting up for one tomorrow. There is a lot of room for disappointment when USDA releases its April WASDE report. For 80 percent of the datapoints surveyed by Reuters, the trade expects USDA to give them more bullish numbers (see table...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Feed Prices

Livestock cost of gain is an issue that seemingly is not going away and has heightened the interest in tomorrow’s WASDE report. At current carcass weights, a dollar increase in corn price means about $10 per head for hogs, and for cattle means that cattle will be held back on grass for he...

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy; Trade Bullying

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy A session at the Washington International Trade Association today tried to unravel the meaning of the Biden Administration’s so-called worker-led trade policy. Most of the discussion centered on high level economic theory and the mischaracterization of tra...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; WASDE Report Changes; India Complaint; India Vegoil Tariff Rates

U.S. Soybean Export Sales Shift to New Crop Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report further confirmed the ongoing shift in U.S. sales of soybeans from the 2020 crop to the 2021 crop. Tight U.S. soybean stocks and less expensive soybean exports from South America are combining to cause the de...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.2875/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.1525/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soymeal closed at $406.8/short ton, down $2.3 f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Buying Ahead

THE OPEN May beans: 2 lower May meal:  1.20 lower May soyoil:  5 lower May corn:  6 3/4 higher May wheat:  7 3/4 higher The markets opened as called with a sharp rally in corn leading the way higher for other markets to do much the same.  Wheat futures ran more shorts o...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 8 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to Pa...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 8 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 82,000 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down 67 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Corn:  Net sales of 757,000 MT for 2020/2021 were down 5 percent from the previous week and 54 percent from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Grains Firmer; Oilseeds Weaker

GOOD MORNING,  Prices continue to slip into trading ranges in front of the April 9 WASDE report.  Sharply lower soyoil futures were the key to soy complex weakness yesterday, with one wire talking about a hedge fund selling out its soyoil length in front of Friday's report.  Soyo...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price outlook is projected at 45.0 cents per pound, up 4 cents. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean meal price outlook is unchanged at $400 per short ton...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

U.S. soybean outlook is for higher exports, lower crush, residual use, and seed use.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 120 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast.  The season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.25 per bushel, up 10 cents...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

U.S. corn outlook is for greater feed and residual use, increased corn used for ethanol production, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels and exports are increased 75 million bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.3...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat outlook is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks.  Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million.  Exports are unchanged.  Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are sti...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Weather Rally Continues; USDA Cuts U.S. Corn Stocks

The April WASDE featured fewer changes than expected with USDA remaining cautious about increasing U.S. demand expectations. The agency was similarly neutral the South American crops, where most analysts had been expecting production cuts. The market reaction to the April report was mixed with...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.3875/bushel, up $0.1 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.03/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soymeal closed at $401.2/short ton, down $5.6 f...

Problem Solved; Cost of Food Sovereignty

Problem Solved The UN hosts a Food Systems Summit later this year intended to promote progress on the organization’s sustainable development goals and other food system “problems.” The Summit’s website bravely asserts that, “The good news is that we know what we ne...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

Biden Appropriations Request for Agriculture

The Biden Administration Office of Management and Budget sent a partial budget plan to Capitol Hill this morning. The proposal is an outline of funding requests in annually appropriated programs referred to as discretionary spending. Ongoing programs authorized by permanent legislation, such as...

Production Priority over Consumption

Americans consume more than the dietary guidelines recommend for meat and grains while under-consuming fruit and vegetables. Vegetable consumption has been rising and is now at around 70 percent of recommended levels. This has been helped in part by fresh, low-cost supplies from Mexico. The U.S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Corn Supported; Soy Holds

THE OPEN May beans:  1 lower May meal:  1.40 higher May soyoil:  35 lower May corna;  2 1/2 higher May wheat:  5 1/2 higher The markets opened as expected with further gains in wheat on short-covering.  Wheat prices corrected sharply after trading above moving aver...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Report Day!

GOOD MORNING, Report day!  At 11:00 central time traders will see how the new carry-out levels and SA production estimates impact prices.  Funds seemed to be onto something yesterday, with corn prices accelerating from the start of the day.  As mentioned before, fund buying would...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Bull Flags, Ascending Triangles

SPREADS July crush trads to 60.25c/bu while oilshare trades to 38.23%.  Spreads are slightly weaker for July/Nov inverse, trading down to 1.33 1/4c, while May/July inverse trades from 5-6c.  July/Dec meal trades from $18.00 inverse to $16.10, while May/July trades from $3.40 out to $3...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Setting Up Surprise

Traders say they do not like surprises but they seem to be setting up for one tomorrow. There is a lot of room for disappointment when USDA releases its April WASDE report. For 80 percent of the datapoints surveyed by Reuters, the trade expects USDA to give them more bullish numbers (see table...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Feed Prices

Livestock cost of gain is an issue that seemingly is not going away and has heightened the interest in tomorrow’s WASDE report. At current carcass weights, a dollar increase in corn price means about $10 per head for hogs, and for cattle means that cattle will be held back on grass for he...

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy; Trade Bullying

Defining Worker-Led Trade Policy A session at the Washington International Trade Association today tried to unravel the meaning of the Biden Administration’s so-called worker-led trade policy. Most of the discussion centered on high level economic theory and the mischaracterization of tra...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; WASDE Report Changes; India Complaint; India Vegoil Tariff Rates

U.S. Soybean Export Sales Shift to New Crop Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report further confirmed the ongoing shift in U.S. sales of soybeans from the 2020 crop to the 2021 crop. Tight U.S. soybean stocks and less expensive soybean exports from South America are combining to cause the de...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

May 21 Corn closed at $5.7975/bushel, up $0.1925 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Wheat closed at $6.2875/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soybeans closed at $14.1525/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  May 21 Soymeal closed at $406.8/short ton, down $2.3 f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Buying Ahead

THE OPEN May beans: 2 lower May meal:  1.20 lower May soyoil:  5 lower May corn:  6 3/4 higher May wheat:  7 3/4 higher The markets opened as called with a sharp rally in corn leading the way higher for other markets to do much the same.  Wheat futures ran more shorts o...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 8 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to Pa...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 8 April)

Ocean Freight Comments - 8 April 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Following the crazy price action of the first quarter of 2021, dry-bulk markets have considerable rebalancing to do. Over the past three months, markets have been highly unusual whereby the smaller Handysize, and up to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 82,000 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021--a marketing-year low--were down 67 percent from the previous week and 75 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Corn:  Net sales of 757,000 MT for 2020/2021 were down 5 percent from the previous week and 54 percent from...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Grains Firmer; Oilseeds Weaker

GOOD MORNING,  Prices continue to slip into trading ranges in front of the April 9 WASDE report.  Sharply lower soyoil futures were the key to soy complex weakness yesterday, with one wire talking about a hedge fund selling out its soyoil length in front of Friday's report.  Soyo...

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