World Perspectives

Recent North America Analysis

New Trade Agenda; Walk the Meat Talk

New Trade Agenda Tomorrow will present the Senate Agriculture Committee’s first hearing in preparation for writing a new Farm Bill and the first two topics are trade, and horticulture. It will be the first hearing for newly confirmed USDA Under Secretary for Trade Alexis Taylor. The line...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soymeal, Live Cattle Post New Contract Highs; Grains End Firmer

The CBOT was stronger to start the day with corn and wheat finding mild, continued strength from last week’s rallies. The winterkill threats to the HRW crop mean that KCBT wheat is the upside leader in wheat futures with funds slowly shifting to the long side of the market. Corn ticked hi...

Farm Bill Could Change PLC Reference Prices

Topics for consideration in the farm bill are starting to take shape. According to reports from Capitol Hill, one likely change in the 2023 farm bill will be the reference prices under the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program, which are likely to get updated to reflect current markets. The PLC pro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8375/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.3525/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $488.7/short ton, up $15.2 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bullish Signals in KCBT Wheat and Corn; WPI 2023 Acreage Forecasts

The CBOT capped a volatile week with a relatively quiet day of trading. That didn’t mean there weren’t ample technical developments, however, with several markets forming or hinting at trend reversals. For the day, corn futures showed some strength early but ended flat while the soy...

wheat soy-oilseeds feed-grains

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

House Ag Committee Reorganizing After Its Organization Announcement

On 17 January, we reported the list of new Republican majority members of the House Agriculture Committee. At the time, the Republican side increased from 23 members to 27 under the new majority.  Representative Randy Feenstra (IA-4) moved off the ag panel for a seat on the Ways and Means...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.095/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $473.5/short ton, down $3.6 from...

USTR Downgraded; Lightweight Committee

USTR Downgraded The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative sits inside the Executive Office of the President. No different than other offices situated under the umbrella of the White House, it serves as both a lead and a coordinator amongst the various departments and agencies. Typically, depa...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Volatile Mood

The Market The trading week got started with the weather premium getting chopped down due to rains in Argentina. Those rains turned out to be good but not perfect. Then a robust export sales report on Thursday shot more adrenalin into the complex. However, by week’s end more rain is seen...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 Jan.)

Ocean Freight Comments - 27 January 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is the Lunar/Chinese New Year holiday period and all is quiet on the ocean freight front. Markets are thin and a bit soft, “sluggish” is a term commonly heard. The Baltic indices are a little lower with m...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 Jan.)

Ocean Freight Comments - 27 January 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is the Lunar/Chinese New Year holiday period and all is quiet on the ocean freight front. Markets are thin and a bit soft, “sluggish” is a term commonly heard. The Baltic indices are a little lower with m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Macro and Russians

After a brutal Monday, futures have been clawing back gains the past few days. Trading on Thursday was helped along by a U.S. Q4 2022 GDP number that pleased outside markets. Consumer spending underpinned a 2.9 percent increase in GDP, though there remain warnings of another shoe to drop. That...

Dirty Deal; Standards Battle

Dirty Deal During the early days of negotiating the Uruguay Round, industry leaders fretted that trade liberalization aspirations would be thwarted by protections sought by agriculture. Spin forward nearly four decades and the reverse concern is at hand – sacrificing U.S. corn exports to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for January 13-19, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 500,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 84 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 264,200 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week, but up 15 percen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.825/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.235/bushel, up $0.21 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $477.1/short ton, up $11.6 from...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: Broiler Outlook

Preliminary December broiler production was 3.8 billion pounds, which would bring 2022 annual production to 46.2 billion pounds. That is 103 percent of 2021. The increase was driven by larger slaughter in the second half of 2022 and heavier bird weights in Q1 and, especially, in Q4. Some of t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Finally Finds a Bid; Cold Storage Report Bearish Livestock

The CBOT saw another day of strength in wheat as funds continue to pare back their short positions in that market while commercial buying interest picked up, especially for HRW wheat. In contrast to the weakness observed earlier this week, the soy complex rallied across the board on a combinati...

Foreign Desk at State; IRA Confusion; Grain is Value-added Water

Foreign Desk at State Under Secretary Jose Fernandez has proved that an American desk is needed at the State Department. Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the tin-eared Fernandez said that market access is not as important as it used to be because U.S. tariffs are...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Battle for Acres

S&P Global is the first private firm to issue an acreage planted forecast following USDA’s prediction for the upcoming campaign, but it will not be the last. The annual exercise is riskier this far out from when planting actually occurs because markets can change and farmers have cert...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.025/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $465.5/short ton, up $5.7 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soy Complex Weakens Further

Corn and wheat futures posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with Monday’s selloff yielding higher prices on a combination of profit taking and short-covering. The soy complex attempted the same but could not hold gains as showers fell across Argentina again and are forecast to contin...

livestock

China Dairy Hope

Global dairy trade, which had been growing at a compound annual rate of 4.7 percent has slowed over the past couple of years. A primary reason has been China, where demand was curbed by COVID restrictions. The drop in demand coincided with reduced production, and higher prices countered some of...

Policy Shorts

Mexico Shrug U.S. trade officials meeting with their Mexican counterparts raised "grave concerns" over AMLO’s agricultural biotechnology policies and said modifications proposed thus far are inadequate. They committed to fully defend U.S. rights under the USMCA. The issue carries urgency...

New Trade Agenda; Walk the Meat Talk

New Trade Agenda Tomorrow will present the Senate Agriculture Committee’s first hearing in preparation for writing a new Farm Bill and the first two topics are trade, and horticulture. It will be the first hearing for newly confirmed USDA Under Secretary for Trade Alexis Taylor. The line...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soymeal, Live Cattle Post New Contract Highs; Grains End Firmer

The CBOT was stronger to start the day with corn and wheat finding mild, continued strength from last week’s rallies. The winterkill threats to the HRW crop mean that KCBT wheat is the upside leader in wheat futures with funds slowly shifting to the long side of the market. Corn ticked hi...

Farm Bill Could Change PLC Reference Prices

Topics for consideration in the farm bill are starting to take shape. According to reports from Capitol Hill, one likely change in the 2023 farm bill will be the reference prices under the Price Loss Coverage (PLC) program, which are likely to get updated to reflect current markets. The PLC pro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.8375/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.3525/bushel, up $0.2575 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $488.7/short ton, up $15.2 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bullish Signals in KCBT Wheat and Corn; WPI 2023 Acreage Forecasts

The CBOT capped a volatile week with a relatively quiet day of trading. That didn’t mean there weren’t ample technical developments, however, with several markets forming or hinting at trend reversals. For the day, corn futures showed some strength early but ended flat while the soy...

wheat soy-oilseeds feed-grains

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

House Ag Committee Reorganizing After Its Organization Announcement

On 17 January, we reported the list of new Republican majority members of the House Agriculture Committee. At the time, the Republican side increased from 23 members to 27 under the new majority.  Representative Randy Feenstra (IA-4) moved off the ag panel for a seat on the Ways and Means...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.5/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.095/bushel, down $0.14 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $473.5/short ton, down $3.6 from...

USTR Downgraded; Lightweight Committee

USTR Downgraded The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative sits inside the Executive Office of the President. No different than other offices situated under the umbrella of the White House, it serves as both a lead and a coordinator amongst the various departments and agencies. Typically, depa...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Volatile Mood

The Market The trading week got started with the weather premium getting chopped down due to rains in Argentina. Those rains turned out to be good but not perfect. Then a robust export sales report on Thursday shot more adrenalin into the complex. However, by week’s end more rain is seen...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 27 Jan.)

Ocean Freight Comments - 27 January 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is the Lunar/Chinese New Year holiday period and all is quiet on the ocean freight front. Markets are thin and a bit soft, “sluggish” is a term commonly heard. The Baltic indices are a little lower with m...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 27 Jan.)

Ocean Freight Comments - 27 January 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting It is the Lunar/Chinese New Year holiday period and all is quiet on the ocean freight front. Markets are thin and a bit soft, “sluggish” is a term commonly heard. The Baltic indices are a little lower with m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Macro and Russians

After a brutal Monday, futures have been clawing back gains the past few days. Trading on Thursday was helped along by a U.S. Q4 2022 GDP number that pleased outside markets. Consumer spending underpinned a 2.9 percent increase in GDP, though there remain warnings of another shoe to drop. That...

Dirty Deal; Standards Battle

Dirty Deal During the early days of negotiating the Uruguay Round, industry leaders fretted that trade liberalization aspirations would be thwarted by protections sought by agriculture. Spin forward nearly four decades and the reverse concern is at hand – sacrificing U.S. corn exports to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for January 13-19, 2023 Wheat:  Net sales of 500,400 metric tons (MT) for 2022/2023 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 84 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 264,200 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week, but up 15 percen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.825/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.525/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.235/bushel, up $0.21 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $477.1/short ton, up $11.6 from...

livestock

Livestock Roundup: Broiler Outlook

Preliminary December broiler production was 3.8 billion pounds, which would bring 2022 annual production to 46.2 billion pounds. That is 103 percent of 2021. The increase was driven by larger slaughter in the second half of 2022 and heavier bird weights in Q1 and, especially, in Q4. Some of t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soy Complex Finally Finds a Bid; Cold Storage Report Bearish Livestock

The CBOT saw another day of strength in wheat as funds continue to pare back their short positions in that market while commercial buying interest picked up, especially for HRW wheat. In contrast to the weakness observed earlier this week, the soy complex rallied across the board on a combinati...

Foreign Desk at State; IRA Confusion; Grain is Value-added Water

Foreign Desk at State Under Secretary Jose Fernandez has proved that an American desk is needed at the State Department. Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the tin-eared Fernandez said that market access is not as important as it used to be because U.S. tariffs are...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Battle for Acres

S&P Global is the first private firm to issue an acreage planted forecast following USDA’s prediction for the upcoming campaign, but it will not be the last. The annual exercise is riskier this far out from when planting actually occurs because markets can change and farmers have cert...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 23 Corn closed at $6.7475/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.025/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close.  Mar 23 Soymeal closed at $465.5/short ton, up $5.7 fr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday for Grains; Soy Complex Weakens Further

Corn and wheat futures posted a “Turnaround Tuesday” with Monday’s selloff yielding higher prices on a combination of profit taking and short-covering. The soy complex attempted the same but could not hold gains as showers fell across Argentina again and are forecast to contin...

livestock

China Dairy Hope

Global dairy trade, which had been growing at a compound annual rate of 4.7 percent has slowed over the past couple of years. A primary reason has been China, where demand was curbed by COVID restrictions. The drop in demand coincided with reduced production, and higher prices countered some of...

Policy Shorts

Mexico Shrug U.S. trade officials meeting with their Mexican counterparts raised "grave concerns" over AMLO’s agricultural biotechnology policies and said modifications proposed thus far are inadequate. They committed to fully defend U.S. rights under the USMCA. The issue carries urgency...

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