World Perspectives

Recent North America Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Heading into Season Lows

THE OPEN November beans:  1 higher December meal:  .20 higher December soyoil:  1 higher December corn:  1/4 higher September wheat:  3 lower The markets opened with short-covering in corn and beans.  Profit-taking in oilshare was noted with beans stabilizing on a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is coming to an end, per the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The yield averaged 8.1 MT/ha and total production came in at 50 MMT. This is the first time that corn production exceeded soybeans in Argentina. This year’s harvest progress was also very quick,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Lower Into Report

SPREADS Oct. crush to 94.02c/bu while oilshare is at 35.20%.  Sep/Dec corn trades from a low of 13c into 11 1/2c on heavy volume.    Dec/Dec corn trades from 38 3/4c from 40c carry.  Sep/Nov beans trade from 1 3/4c out to 2 1/2c.  Sep /Dec wheat trades from 7 3/4c out t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Sell the Story, Buy the Fact

GOOD MORNING, Prices were firmer overnight but have since turned lower.  Wheat futures are lower with larger production out of Russia and Canada, as world supplies grow.  Russian wheat prices are lower as new crop hits the market.   Beans are weaker on more fund liquidation...

Policy Round Up: COVID Legislation; Aluminum Tariffs; Restaurant Performance

COVID Relief: Today was the target deadline for the next COVID relief package; that is not going to happen. Neither the Senate or House was in session today but are subject to a one-day recall back for a vote if necessary. Negotiations continue but progress is not being made. The hang-ups are t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.955/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.675/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, down $1.6...

Trade on Campaign Trail; AgChem Cold Turkey

Trade on the Campaign Trail The two leading candidates for the U.S. presidency are making it clear that trade will be a central campaign topic, and it will be interesting to see which side wins. Campaigning in the key manufacturing state of Ohio yesterday, President Trump made clear that he wil...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - On the Defensive

THE OPEN November beans: 1 lower December meal:  .20 lower December soyoil:  23 lower December corn:  1/2 lower September wheat:  3 lower The markets opened defensively and continued to head lower despite the announcement of beans sold to China.  Funds are liquidating b...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

WASDE Probability

The adage is that big crops get bigger – meaning USDA uses trendline yields for forecasting. But as evidence gathers that weather has been kindly, each successive WASDE report tends to increase the production outlook. Of course, some years the yields are reduced but no one is expecting th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Mixed Day Ahead

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 91.62c/bu while oilshare trades at 25.32%.  The nearby corn spread Sep/Dec widens out to 12 1/2c from 12 1/4c, and values that were 10 3/4c at the start of the week.  Dec/Dec corn trades from 39c to 39 1/4c.  Sep/Dec wheat trades from 6 3/4c out to 7...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook Uncertainties

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning, though all are sitting close to trading range lows except soyoil.   The uncertainties of upcoming trade talks between China and the U.S. plus large crops continue to weigh on beans.  Officials in the Trump administration are reportedly...

The Global Future

Politicians can make a mess of things, but policymakers typically seek to solve problems. Politicians proclaim a new cold war between China and the U.S.; policymakers see it as a dysfunctional historical period that must be led back to equilibrium.    The Chinese are happy with their...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 6 August)

Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Setting Records

Records are being set in lots of places and not in a good way if you are a bull. There will be record wheat in Canada and India and projected record corn and soybean crops next season in Brazil. Farmers not selling now to clean out bins are ignoring the fact that seasonal lows may not yet be hi...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 6 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2375/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.0125/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.78/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, down $1.8...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: June Meat Exports; COVID-19 Impact on Mexican Beef Sector

The June meat export totals were released by USDA today, with pork, broilers and beef all showing a drop from May and big drops from the 2020 high point in March. Only pork was up year-over-year, mostly on large volumes shipped to China. In June, China accounted for a third of all exports, but...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 605,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Corn:  Net sales of 101,600 MT for 2019/2020 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 70 percent from the prior 4-...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Europe and Deforestation; Strong Brazilian Real

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil had good success in making export sales in the week ending 30 July. The larger sales likely portend large sales of the commodities in coming weeks. Net soybean export sale...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - All in All Bearish

THE OPEN Nov beans:  2 1/2 higher Dec meal:  .40 lower Dec soyoil:  41 higher Dec corn:  1/4 higher Sep wheat:  3 1/2 higher The markets opened as called with prices trading mixed.  Grains turned lower after the start of the trading session, but short-covering was...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Bottom Testing

SPREADS Sep crush continues to improve its margin at 92.34c/bu and oilshare remains strong at 35.54%.  Sep/Dec corn trades out to 12 1/4c from 12c, and wider than recent values at 10 3/4c.  Dec/Dec corn trades from 39 3/4c to 40 1/2c.  Sep/Dec wheat trades from 6-7c carry. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Sideways Opportunities

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trade mixed, with the major direction for most of the markets sideways to lower.  Funds are now estimated to be short 8,000 wheat contracts, 175,000 corn, and 24,000 meal.  Funds are estimated to be long 55,000 bean contracts and 54,000 soyoil. Into th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation

The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day.  The Wall...

Organic versus Conventional Face-Off

A few members of the U.S. Congress have drafted legislation to restrict the use of farm chemicals based on organophosphates and neonicotinoids. The authors claim these chemicals remain on the market “even when scientific evidence overwhelmingly shows that a pesticide is causing harm to pe...

Gold Price Spike

The value of gold has surpassed $2,000/troy ounce for the first time. It has climbed 32 percent in value thus far this year and, given the dovish stance of U.S. monetary policy, it is likely to rise some more, eventually hitting a correction. The last peak in value was in 2011. The price of gol...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.7875/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $290.2/short ton, down $1.2 fro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Ministry of Agriculture Data Shows Hog Recovery on Track According to the latest market surveys from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), through this past June the country’s sow and live hog inventories are recovering at a steady pace. At the halfway...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Assuming Higher Yields

THE OPEN November beans:  3/4 higher December meal:  .10 higher December soyoil:  1 lower December corn:  1 1/4 higher September wheat:  3 higher Prices opened on a mixed note with more wheat prices trading downward while the soy complex traded lower.  Traders were...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical News - Bearish Markers

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 90.35c/bu while oilshare trades back to 35.0%.  Sep/Nov beans trades from 2c to 2 1/2c carry.  Sep/Dec corn trades out to 12c from 11 1/2c.  Dec20/Dec21 corn trades from 39 3/4c to 40c.  Sep/Dec wheat trades from 7 1/2c carry to 8c.  PALM OI...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Priced to Sell

GOOD MORNING, Prices continued to work lower post beneficial crop progress numbers.  Rising domestic and international crop estimates for wheat, (Russia and Australia), pushed prices lower.  Egypt tendered for 60,000 mt of mill grade wheat for Sep 11-30 shipment. Large yield ideas for...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

Phase One Collateral Damage; Conditional Income Subsidies

Phase One Collateral Damage UC-Davis researchers Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 27383) the impact of the Phase One agreement on China’s agricultural imports and find that some U.S. allies should be very upset. Holding China’s imports roughly static,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Heading into Season Lows

THE OPEN November beans:  1 higher December meal:  .20 higher December soyoil:  1 higher December corn:  1/4 higher September wheat:  3 lower The markets opened with short-covering in corn and beans.  Profit-taking in oilshare was noted with beans stabilizing on a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  The biggest trends in the EU/Black Sea wheat markets this week are the fact that the Russian crop continues to grow while EU crop forecasts are being continually lowered. Russian wheat yields are defying their typical pattern of decreasing as harvest progresses. This year, e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest is coming to an end, per the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The yield averaged 8.1 MT/ha and total production came in at 50 MMT. This is the first time that corn production exceeded soybeans in Argentina. This year’s harvest progress was also very quick,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Lower Into Report

SPREADS Oct. crush to 94.02c/bu while oilshare is at 35.20%.  Sep/Dec corn trades from a low of 13c into 11 1/2c on heavy volume.    Dec/Dec corn trades from 38 3/4c from 40c carry.  Sep/Nov beans trade from 1 3/4c out to 2 1/2c.  Sep /Dec wheat trades from 7 3/4c out t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Sell the Story, Buy the Fact

GOOD MORNING, Prices were firmer overnight but have since turned lower.  Wheat futures are lower with larger production out of Russia and Canada, as world supplies grow.  Russian wheat prices are lower as new crop hits the market.   Beans are weaker on more fund liquidation...

Policy Round Up: COVID Legislation; Aluminum Tariffs; Restaurant Performance

COVID Relief: Today was the target deadline for the next COVID relief package; that is not going to happen. Neither the Senate or House was in session today but are subject to a one-day recall back for a vote if necessary. Negotiations continue but progress is not being made. The hang-ups are t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2075/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $4.955/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.675/bushel, down $0.105 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $286.8/short ton, down $1.6...

Trade on Campaign Trail; AgChem Cold Turkey

Trade on the Campaign Trail The two leading candidates for the U.S. presidency are making it clear that trade will be a central campaign topic, and it will be interesting to see which side wins. Campaigning in the key manufacturing state of Ohio yesterday, President Trump made clear that he wil...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - On the Defensive

THE OPEN November beans: 1 lower December meal:  .20 lower December soyoil:  23 lower December corn:  1/2 lower September wheat:  3 lower The markets opened defensively and continued to head lower despite the announcement of beans sold to China.  Funds are liquidating b...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

WASDE Probability

The adage is that big crops get bigger – meaning USDA uses trendline yields for forecasting. But as evidence gathers that weather has been kindly, each successive WASDE report tends to increase the production outlook. Of course, some years the yields are reduced but no one is expecting th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Mixed Day Ahead

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 91.62c/bu while oilshare trades at 25.32%.  The nearby corn spread Sep/Dec widens out to 12 1/2c from 12 1/4c, and values that were 10 3/4c at the start of the week.  Dec/Dec corn trades from 39c to 39 1/4c.  Sep/Dec wheat trades from 6 3/4c out to 7...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook Uncertainties

GOOD MORNING, Prices are mixed this morning, though all are sitting close to trading range lows except soyoil.   The uncertainties of upcoming trade talks between China and the U.S. plus large crops continue to weigh on beans.  Officials in the Trump administration are reportedly...

The Global Future

Politicians can make a mess of things, but policymakers typically seek to solve problems. Politicians proclaim a new cold war between China and the U.S.; policymakers see it as a dysfunctional historical period that must be led back to equilibrium.    The Chinese are happy with their...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 6 August)

Freight Comments for 6 August 2020: By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Australian Iron Ore to C...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Setting Records

Records are being set in lots of places and not in a good way if you are a bull. There will be record wheat in Canada and India and projected record corn and soybean crops next season in Brazil. Farmers not selling now to clean out bins are ignoring the fact that seasonal lows may not yet be hi...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 6 August)

Ocean Freight Insights and Comments - 6 August 2020 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk freight markets bumped up this week on support from cargo demand from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast South America to China. The Capesize market also helped move markets with better rates for Au...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2375/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.0125/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.78/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $288.4/short ton, down $1.8...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: June Meat Exports; COVID-19 Impact on Mexican Beef Sector

The June meat export totals were released by USDA today, with pork, broilers and beef all showing a drop from May and big drops from the 2020 high point in March. Only pork was up year-over-year, mostly on large volumes shipped to China. In June, China accounted for a third of all exports, but...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Export Sales

Wheat:  Net sales of 605,500 metric tons (MT) for 2020/2021 were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Corn:  Net sales of 101,600 MT for 2019/2020 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 70 percent from the prior 4-...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Europe and Deforestation; Strong Brazilian Real

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil had good success in making export sales in the week ending 30 July. The larger sales likely portend large sales of the commodities in coming weeks. Net soybean export sale...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - All in All Bearish

THE OPEN Nov beans:  2 1/2 higher Dec meal:  .40 lower Dec soyoil:  41 higher Dec corn:  1/4 higher Sep wheat:  3 1/2 higher The markets opened as called with prices trading mixed.  Grains turned lower after the start of the trading session, but short-covering was...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical Views - Bottom Testing

SPREADS Sep crush continues to improve its margin at 92.34c/bu and oilshare remains strong at 35.54%.  Sep/Dec corn trades out to 12 1/4c from 12c, and wider than recent values at 10 3/4c.  Dec/Dec corn trades from 39 3/4c to 40 1/2c.  Sep/Dec wheat trades from 6-7c carry. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Sideways Opportunities

GOOD MORNING, Prices continue to trade mixed, with the major direction for most of the markets sideways to lower.  Funds are now estimated to be short 8,000 wheat contracts, 175,000 corn, and 24,000 meal.  Funds are estimated to be long 55,000 bean contracts and 54,000 soyoil. Into th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spread Trade Creates Consolidation

The CBOT featured spread trade on Wednesday with corn and wheat gaining on soybeans. Traders were revering old bull soybean/wheat and soybean/corn spreads, which kept soybean values under pressure. Trading volumes were low and spreading/position evening was the theme of the day.  The Wall...

Organic versus Conventional Face-Off

A few members of the U.S. Congress have drafted legislation to restrict the use of farm chemicals based on organophosphates and neonicotinoids. The authors claim these chemicals remain on the market “even when scientific evidence overwhelmingly shows that a pesticide is causing harm to pe...

Gold Price Spike

The value of gold has surpassed $2,000/troy ounce for the first time. It has climbed 32 percent in value thus far this year and, given the dovish stance of U.S. monetary policy, it is likely to rise some more, eventually hitting a correction. The last peak in value was in 2011. The price of gol...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.2325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Sep 20 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.7875/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close.  Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $290.2/short ton, down $1.2 fro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Ministry of Agriculture Data Shows Hog Recovery on Track According to the latest market surveys from China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), through this past June the country’s sow and live hog inventories are recovering at a steady pace. At the halfway...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

PM Post - Assuming Higher Yields

THE OPEN November beans:  3/4 higher December meal:  .10 higher December soyoil:  1 lower December corn:  1 1/4 higher September wheat:  3 higher Prices opened on a mixed note with more wheat prices trading downward while the soy complex traded lower.  Traders were...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Technical News - Bearish Markers

SPREADS Sep. crush trades to 90.35c/bu while oilshare trades back to 35.0%.  Sep/Nov beans trades from 2c to 2 1/2c carry.  Sep/Dec corn trades out to 12c from 11 1/2c.  Dec20/Dec21 corn trades from 39 3/4c to 40c.  Sep/Dec wheat trades from 7 1/2c carry to 8c.  PALM OI...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

AM Outlook - Priced to Sell

GOOD MORNING, Prices continued to work lower post beneficial crop progress numbers.  Rising domestic and international crop estimates for wheat, (Russia and Australia), pushed prices lower.  Egypt tendered for 60,000 mt of mill grade wheat for Sep 11-30 shipment. Large yield ideas for...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

Phase One Collateral Damage; Conditional Income Subsidies

Phase One Collateral Damage UC-Davis researchers Robert Feenstra and Chang Hong analyzed (NBER Working Paper No. 27383) the impact of the Phase One agreement on China’s agricultural imports and find that some U.S. allies should be very upset. Holding China’s imports roughly static,...

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