Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5125/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.28/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $368.8/short ton, up $1.1 fro...
Oilseeds Highlights: Defying the Odds
The Market Despite worries about used cooking oil imports, slow exports, and a drop in the NOPA crush, July soybeans closed the week up 9 cents (0.73 percent) at 1228/bushel. Traders must have Brazilian flooding on their minds. However, the November contract lost 2.5 cents (-0.18 percent) to en...
House Farm Bill Draft Commodity Program Proposals
As we reported Monday, 13 May, the full draft of the House Agriculture Committee’s farm bill was expected to be released today, and it was. Following are some key details on crop programs in the House bill. First, the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) payment guarantee is increased to 90 perce...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...
Livestock Roundup: Pork Demand Rebound
Going into the summer, a big question for meat has been: how will consumer demand hold up? This is especially the case with steadily increasing beef prices. The pork cutout trends show that pork demand has improved, which is a positive sign going into June and July when the cutout i...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.6325/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.1625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $367.7/short ton, down $4 f...
China Retaliation?; WTO Dispute System Not Urgent
China Retaliation? The assumption is that China will retaliate against U.S. agriculture for any new tariffs applied to Chinese goods by President Biden under Section 301. But at least one American expert on China doesn’t think that is a given. Under this construct, Beijing views the new t...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Market Commentary: CBOT Pauses and Drifts Lower; NOPA Crush Disappoints; Energies Rally as Inflation Eases
The CBOT started out firm again in the overnight session but quickly turned lower once the day session started. The reason seemed to be “sell the fact” trade after the recent weather market rise in prices with traders seeming to think grain and oilseed supplies may be a bit better t...
Transatlantic Glue
China understandably responded harshly to the Biden Administration’s sharp increase in tariffs on EV’s and components. However, there is not much that Beijing can do about it except retaliate. The EU already shared Washington’s angst about China undermining Western industries...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Tariffs: UCO No, Phosphate Yes
The Biden Administration just announced higher Section 301 tariffs on a host of imports from China, after the statutory four-year review of those duties imposed by the Trump Administration. The new tariffs did not include the rumored increase for used cooking oil (UCO) that roiled soybean futur...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.725/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.145/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $373.3/short ton, up $6.8 fro...
Tariff Man’s Competitor; Europe Correctly Fears Trump
Tariff Man’s Competitor Former President Donald Trump prided himself on his use of tariffs, which candidate Biden criticized but now President Biden fully embraces. In fact, he is proclaiming his own new tariffs on $18 billion worth of Chinese goods and calling them “historic.&rdquo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop
In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerned about Northern Hemisphere weather. Monday’s trade was seemingly primarily focused on the dryness and recent frost/freeze events in c...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 13 May)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
More Details, More Conflicts on Farm Bill
The slow roll of the details of the farm bill continues. On Friday, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) released a title-by-title review of the House farm bill draft. This comes after both the House and Senate agriculture committees released broad outlines of th...
Psychobiotic Nonsense; SPS/TBT and Poultry
Psychobiotic Nonsense One component of a book called The Psychobiotic Revolution is scientifically reasonable – that the human gut biome contains trillions of beneficial microbes. And that disturbing that biome can have adverse effects on physical and mental health. One more reasonable th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.87/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.195/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $366.5/short ton, down $5.4 from...
Milking Future Demand
U.S. and Mexican dairy industry representatives met and renewed their commitment to “collaborate and advocate for mutually beneficial dairy policies. This was a policy initiative begun back in 2016. At first glance, the effort seems surprising given that Mexico exports more than three tim...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6975/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.26 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.19/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $371.9/short ton, down $1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads WASDE-Defying CBOT Rally
The CBOT was higher heading into Friday’s May WASDE report from the USDA with weather and production concerns in various parts of the globe driving futures into the green. The WASDE didn’t really support an outlook for higher trade/prices, but the CBOT rallied anyway after the repor...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The surprise in this week’s CFTC report is that – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline - funds were more aggressive covering grain/oilseed shorts than expected. The headline number is that funds bought back over 111,000 contracts and are now only short about 30,000 contra...
Oilseed Highlights: Not Much Ado About Something
The Market After hitting a new contract low yesterday, the trade took July soyoil up nearly 2 cents today and closed out the week with a 3.1 percent rise to 44.44 cents/pound. July soybeans added 4 cents or 0.32 percent for the week, and July soymeal lost 0.08 percent to close out the week at 3...
Tax Debate Coming in 2025 Despite Election Outcome
The 2024 election is now less than six months away. Most of the attention is being paid to various “horse race” issues such as polling, fundraising, endorsements, etc. Of course, the underlying interest is based on what the policy agenda will be starting in 2025, which as of this po...
Market Commentary: Weather and Old versus New Crop
The trade continued to position ahead of tomorrow’s May USDA WASDE report. Some took profits as they backed out of positions but, overall, there was lower volume. The exception being soyoil where a new July contract low was printed. Adverse South American crop weather supports old crop v...
Livestock Roundup: Strong Performance for Broilers in Q1
2024 is starting off to be a stronger year for broilers, and gaining momentum as the year progresses. Production through Q1 is 99 percent of last year in pounds (15.130 billion) and head slaughtered (2.323 million). But with softening feed prices and increased parts prices, margins are positive...
Grossly Modified Opinion; BRICS Grain Exchange
Grossly Modified Opinion While the European Parliament’s plan for regulating New Genomic Traits (NGT’s) provides a lighter regulatory treatment for NTG-1 products, its associated labeling requirements will be exploited by the anti-GMO crowd. U.S. regulatory agencies are planning to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.565/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.085/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $372.9/short ton, down $5.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 26-May 2, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 41,100 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 337,500 MT were down 34 percent from the previous week and...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Contract on More Pre-WASDE Positioning
Grain futures continue to retreat from their recent rally highs with traders unwilling to overextend risks heading into Friday’s WASDE report. The WASDE should be supportive old crop futures from cuts to the Brazilian and Argentine crops, but new crop futures could see pressure from expec...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.34/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.2775/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $378.5/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Traders Pause CBOT Rally While Eyeing WASDE
The grain market fundamentals didn’t change much from Monday to Tuesday, but traders largely suspended their short-covering or long-positioning efforts as they looked ahead to the May WASDE. The report will be issued this Friday and will include USDA’s first projections for MY 2024/...
Beef Supply Overview
The March data for beef exports at 256.108 million pounds showed a drop in volume of 10.4 percent from March 2023, but posted the highest volume of Q1. Export value was down 0.3 percent, or effectively flat, from 2023, but was the highest in nine months. For Q1 2024, volume was 311,865 MT, down...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4275/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.465/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $383.2/short ton, down $4.4...
Remake Agriculture for the Climate; Counter-Notifying India; Plurilateral Path
Remake Agriculture for the Climate The World Bank has issued a report on achieving net zero emissions in the agrifood system (Recipe for a Livable Planet) that cites the sector for being a big emitter, but also one that can achieve reductions at a relatively low-cost. It makes the usual recomme...
Market Commentary: Bulls Are Running Again
Bulls remain firmly in charge of CBOT ag trade with weather concerns seemingly around the world prompting short covering and fresh long buying. Wheat and soybeans were the upside leaders at the CBOT once again as these two commodities hold the most bullish weather implications. Corn was largely...
Having Cake and Eat it Too; Philippine Opportunity
Having Cake and Eat it Too The U.S. is a major food exporter and its sales to India are relatively small and steady due to the border measures it encounters. By contrast, India demands the right to high border measures due to it being a poor country with food insecurity, despite the fact it exp...
Geographic Food Price Differences
Eastern European countries were upset a few years ago when it was discovered that food marketers were retailing lower quality foods in their region of Europe versus countries in the west. Price was not discussed but that differentiation would have followed willingness to pay and the fact that m...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4875/bushel, up $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.4875/bushel, up $0.3375 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $387.6/short ton, up $15.4 fr...
House-Senate Ag Leader Talks on Farm Bill This Week; SNAP Will be an Issue
Both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees have released broad outlines that will underpin the two panels’ drafts of the farm bill. Reports from Capitol Hill are that the two committee chairs, Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) and Representative Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) wi...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Oilseed Highlights: South America/SAF Driving Developments
The Market For the week, the July soybean contract added 37.75 cents (3.2 percent) in value. November soybeans closed out Friday’s trading at $12.01/bushel, the highest close in over a month above the 100-day moving average for the first time this year. July soymeal moved $27.5 (7.9 perce...
Circling the Corral; Un-deglobalizing
Circling the Corral Florida now bans the marketing of cultivated meat. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said lab-grown meat was a threat to the state’s beef cattle industry, the ninth largest in the country. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association has limited its demands to just have...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, up $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.15/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $372.2/short ton, up $7.3 from ye...
Anti-Meat Slow Roll
As the implications of California’s Proposition 12 and Massachusetts’ Question 3 play out in the marketplace, yet another animal welfare ballot initiative will be put to voters in Denver this November. It reads, Should the voters of the City and County of Denver adopt an ordin...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher on Weather
After days of flat to faltering closes, corn and soybeans have now rebounded the past two days, and today wheat joined the rally. In two days, July corn has gained 13 cents and July soybeans are up 36 cents. USDA’s Export Sales report showed old crop washouts and lower actual expor...
Livestock Roundup: Ground Beef Clear of HPAI
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures rallied today after feeling the pressure of news and speculation about HPAI. As WPI reported previously, USDA announced on Tuesday it would be testing ground beef in states where dairy cattle herds had tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu. The sa...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.0425/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.99/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $364.9/short ton, up $15.9 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 19-25, 2024 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 20,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 508,600 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 8 perce...
Market Commentary: CBOT Remains Choppy, Volatile as Weather Drives Markets
The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third straight day amid more forecasts of showers for previously dry production regions. The soy complex recovered a bit from Tuesday’s sellof...
Food is First Victim; Energy Confusion
Food is First Victim Food comprises just 6 percent of all U.S. exports, but it is the first to receive retaliation in trade disputes. The latest example is Israel’s war with Hamas, though it is American food brands that are taking it on the chin. KFC has had to close 100 outlets in Malays...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.7025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $349/short ton, down $2.9 fro...
Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential
The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.525/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.5125/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.28/bushel, up $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $368.8/short ton, up $1.1 fro...
Oilseeds Highlights: Defying the Odds
The Market Despite worries about used cooking oil imports, slow exports, and a drop in the NOPA crush, July soybeans closed the week up 9 cents (0.73 percent) at 1228/bushel. Traders must have Brazilian flooding on their minds. However, the November contract lost 2.5 cents (-0.18 percent) to en...
House Farm Bill Draft Commodity Program Proposals
As we reported Monday, 13 May, the full draft of the House Agriculture Committee’s farm bill was expected to be released today, and it was. Following are some key details on crop programs in the House bill. First, the Ag Risk Coverage (ARC) payment guarantee is increased to 90 perce...
Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market
There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...
Livestock Roundup: Pork Demand Rebound
Going into the summer, a big question for meat has been: how will consumer demand hold up? This is especially the case with steadily increasing beef prices. The pork cutout trends show that pork demand has improved, which is a positive sign going into June and July when the cutout i...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.57/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.6325/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.1625/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $367.7/short ton, down $4 f...
China Retaliation?; WTO Dispute System Not Urgent
China Retaliation? The assumption is that China will retaliate against U.S. agriculture for any new tariffs applied to Chinese goods by President Biden under Section 301. But at least one American expert on China doesn’t think that is a given. Under this construct, Beijing views the new t...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...
Market Commentary: CBOT Pauses and Drifts Lower; NOPA Crush Disappoints; Energies Rally as Inflation Eases
The CBOT started out firm again in the overnight session but quickly turned lower once the day session started. The reason seemed to be “sell the fact” trade after the recent weather market rise in prices with traders seeming to think grain and oilseed supplies may be a bit better t...
Transatlantic Glue
China understandably responded harshly to the Biden Administration’s sharp increase in tariffs on EV’s and components. However, there is not much that Beijing can do about it except retaliate. The EU already shared Washington’s angst about China undermining Western industries...
Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress
The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...
Tariffs: UCO No, Phosphate Yes
The Biden Administration just announced higher Section 301 tariffs on a host of imports from China, after the statutory four-year review of those duties imposed by the Trump Administration. The new tariffs did not include the rumored increase for used cooking oil (UCO) that roiled soybean futur...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.675/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.725/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.145/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $373.3/short ton, up $6.8 fro...
Tariff Man’s Competitor; Europe Correctly Fears Trump
Tariff Man’s Competitor Former President Donald Trump prided himself on his use of tariffs, which candidate Biden criticized but now President Biden fully embraces. In fact, he is proclaiming his own new tariffs on $18 billion worth of Chinese goods and calling them “historic.&rdquo...
Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop
In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerned about Northern Hemisphere weather. Monday’s trade was seemingly primarily focused on the dryness and recent frost/freeze events in c...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 13 May)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
More Details, More Conflicts on Farm Bill
The slow roll of the details of the farm bill continues. On Friday, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) released a title-by-title review of the House farm bill draft. This comes after both the House and Senate agriculture committees released broad outlines of th...
Psychobiotic Nonsense; SPS/TBT and Poultry
Psychobiotic Nonsense One component of a book called The Psychobiotic Revolution is scientifically reasonable – that the human gut biome contains trillions of beneficial microbes. And that disturbing that biome can have adverse effects on physical and mental health. One more reasonable th...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.725/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.87/bushel, up $0.235 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.195/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $366.5/short ton, down $5.4 from...
Milking Future Demand
U.S. and Mexican dairy industry representatives met and renewed their commitment to “collaborate and advocate for mutually beneficial dairy policies. This was a policy initiative begun back in 2016. At first glance, the effort seems surprising given that Mexico exports more than three tim...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6975/bushel, up $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.635/bushel, up $0.26 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.19/bushel, up $0.105 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $371.9/short ton, down $1 from ye...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads WASDE-Defying CBOT Rally
The CBOT was higher heading into Friday’s May WASDE report from the USDA with weather and production concerns in various parts of the globe driving futures into the green. The WASDE didn’t really support an outlook for higher trade/prices, but the CBOT rallied anyway after the repor...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The surprise in this week’s CFTC report is that – through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline - funds were more aggressive covering grain/oilseed shorts than expected. The headline number is that funds bought back over 111,000 contracts and are now only short about 30,000 contra...
Oilseed Highlights: Not Much Ado About Something
The Market After hitting a new contract low yesterday, the trade took July soyoil up nearly 2 cents today and closed out the week with a 3.1 percent rise to 44.44 cents/pound. July soybeans added 4 cents or 0.32 percent for the week, and July soymeal lost 0.08 percent to close out the week at 3...
Tax Debate Coming in 2025 Despite Election Outcome
The 2024 election is now less than six months away. Most of the attention is being paid to various “horse race” issues such as polling, fundraising, endorsements, etc. Of course, the underlying interest is based on what the policy agenda will be starting in 2025, which as of this po...
Market Commentary: Weather and Old versus New Crop
The trade continued to position ahead of tomorrow’s May USDA WASDE report. Some took profits as they backed out of positions but, overall, there was lower volume. The exception being soyoil where a new July contract low was printed. Adverse South American crop weather supports old crop v...
Livestock Roundup: Strong Performance for Broilers in Q1
2024 is starting off to be a stronger year for broilers, and gaining momentum as the year progresses. Production through Q1 is 99 percent of last year in pounds (15.130 billion) and head slaughtered (2.323 million). But with softening feed prices and increased parts prices, margins are positive...
Grossly Modified Opinion; BRICS Grain Exchange
Grossly Modified Opinion While the European Parliament’s plan for regulating New Genomic Traits (NGT’s) provides a lighter regulatory treatment for NTG-1 products, its associated labeling requirements will be exploited by the anti-GMO crowd. U.S. regulatory agencies are planning to...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.565/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.375/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.085/bushel, down $0.1925 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $372.9/short ton, down $5.6 f...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 26-May 2, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 41,100 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 337,500 MT were down 34 percent from the previous week and...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Contract on More Pre-WASDE Positioning
Grain futures continue to retreat from their recent rally highs with traders unwilling to overextend risks heading into Friday’s WASDE report. The WASDE should be supportive old crop futures from cuts to the Brazilian and Argentine crops, but new crop futures could see pressure from expec...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.34/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.2775/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $378.5/short ton, down $4...
Market Commentary: Traders Pause CBOT Rally While Eyeing WASDE
The grain market fundamentals didn’t change much from Monday to Tuesday, but traders largely suspended their short-covering or long-positioning efforts as they looked ahead to the May WASDE. The report will be issued this Friday and will include USDA’s first projections for MY 2024/...
Beef Supply Overview
The March data for beef exports at 256.108 million pounds showed a drop in volume of 10.4 percent from March 2023, but posted the highest volume of Q1. Export value was down 0.3 percent, or effectively flat, from 2023, but was the highest in nine months. For Q1 2024, volume was 311,865 MT, down...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4275/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.465/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $383.2/short ton, down $4.4...
Remake Agriculture for the Climate; Counter-Notifying India; Plurilateral Path
Remake Agriculture for the Climate The World Bank has issued a report on achieving net zero emissions in the agrifood system (Recipe for a Livable Planet) that cites the sector for being a big emitter, but also one that can achieve reductions at a relatively low-cost. It makes the usual recomme...
Market Commentary: Bulls Are Running Again
Bulls remain firmly in charge of CBOT ag trade with weather concerns seemingly around the world prompting short covering and fresh long buying. Wheat and soybeans were the upside leaders at the CBOT once again as these two commodities hold the most bullish weather implications. Corn was largely...
Having Cake and Eat it Too; Philippine Opportunity
Having Cake and Eat it Too The U.S. is a major food exporter and its sales to India are relatively small and steady due to the border measures it encounters. By contrast, India demands the right to high border measures due to it being a poor country with food insecurity, despite the fact it exp...
Geographic Food Price Differences
Eastern European countries were upset a few years ago when it was discovered that food marketers were retailing lower quality foods in their region of Europe versus countries in the west. Price was not discussed but that differentiation would have followed willingness to pay and the fact that m...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4875/bushel, up $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.4875/bushel, up $0.3375 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $387.6/short ton, up $15.4 fr...
House-Senate Ag Leader Talks on Farm Bill This Week; SNAP Will be an Issue
Both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees have released broad outlines that will underpin the two panels’ drafts of the farm bill. Reports from Capitol Hill are that the two committee chairs, Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) and Representative Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) wi...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Oilseed Highlights: South America/SAF Driving Developments
The Market For the week, the July soybean contract added 37.75 cents (3.2 percent) in value. November soybeans closed out Friday’s trading at $12.01/bushel, the highest close in over a month above the 100-day moving average for the first time this year. July soymeal moved $27.5 (7.9 perce...
Circling the Corral; Un-deglobalizing
Circling the Corral Florida now bans the marketing of cultivated meat. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said lab-grown meat was a threat to the state’s beef cattle industry, the ninth largest in the country. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association has limited its demands to just have...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, up $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.15/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $372.2/short ton, up $7.3 from ye...
Anti-Meat Slow Roll
As the implications of California’s Proposition 12 and Massachusetts’ Question 3 play out in the marketplace, yet another animal welfare ballot initiative will be put to voters in Denver this November. It reads, Should the voters of the City and County of Denver adopt an ordin...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher on Weather
After days of flat to faltering closes, corn and soybeans have now rebounded the past two days, and today wheat joined the rally. In two days, July corn has gained 13 cents and July soybeans are up 36 cents. USDA’s Export Sales report showed old crop washouts and lower actual expor...
Livestock Roundup: Ground Beef Clear of HPAI
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures rallied today after feeling the pressure of news and speculation about HPAI. As WPI reported previously, USDA announced on Tuesday it would be testing ground beef in states where dairy cattle herds had tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu. The sa...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.0425/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.99/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $364.9/short ton, up $15.9 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 19-25, 2024 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 20,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 508,600 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 8 perce...
Market Commentary: CBOT Remains Choppy, Volatile as Weather Drives Markets
The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third straight day amid more forecasts of showers for previously dry production regions. The soy complex recovered a bit from Tuesday’s sellof...
Food is First Victim; Energy Confusion
Food is First Victim Food comprises just 6 percent of all U.S. exports, but it is the first to receive retaliation in trade disputes. The latest example is Israel’s war with Hamas, though it is American food brands that are taking it on the chin. KFC has had to close 100 outlets in Malays...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.7025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $349/short ton, down $2.9 fro...