World Perspectives

Recent Pulses Analysis

softs soy-oilseeds wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...

softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...

softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports   India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...

feed-grains livestock wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn Prices Remain Higher, Curbing Export Potential The government of India (GOI) estimated the khariff (October harvest) corn production at 21.47 MMT on 26 September 2018, 1.23 MMT more than the final estimate for that season’s crop last year. The increase is despite the uneven distribut...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulses Demand, Supply and Prices India has been importing large quantities of pulses/lentils over the years. That slowed in the last year, however, as domestic production has increased because of higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Khariff pulses production is expected to rise from 6 MMT in 20...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

How Much Sugar and Ethanol Will India Produce in Sugar Year 2018/19? It was widely speculated about four months ago that India would produce a huge volume of sugar at 35.5 MMT, adding to its problems of plenty. Following new reports of water scarcity and drought conditions in Maharashtra (as we...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of establishing a wheat hedging program to better protect against the volatility of international wheat prices. The finance ministry is said to be taking a very close look at how such a system cou...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Stable Pulses Demand; Prices Remain Low India’s 2018/10 khariff pulses production is expected to reach 9.2 MMT, down slightly from 9.34 MMT in the previous season. With the rabi crops (sown in October/November and harvested in April) forecast at over 15 MMT, there will be suffient domesti...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Another Bailout Package for Sugar Sector The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a third package to bail out the sugar industry. Worth $758 million, it includes a freight subsidy for sugar exports of up to 5 MMT and $1.89/MT on cane crushed in 2018/19. The first package, v...

soy-oilseeds softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Drop in Vegetable Oil Imports  India’s vegetable oil imports have increased over the years. They rose from 14.42 MMT in 2014/15 (November-October) to 14.57 MMT in 2015/16 and 15.07 MMT (approx. 1.25 MT/month) in 2016/17. In 2017/18, though, overall imports are down. According to data...

wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Wheat Prices Rise, Despite Bumper Crop According to the 4th Advance Agricultural Production estimates released this week, India’s wheat production in 2017/18 was revised to 99.7 MMT and GOI has procured 35.51 MMT so far. Higher production and procurement rates 5 MMT higher than the initia...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Dropping Rupee Impacts Imports and Economy The Indian rupee has continued to drop in value against the U.S. dollar. It is currently trading at 70.14 versus the USD, and the depreciation is now at 10.30 percent. As noted in the  29 June 2018 report (click here), the Indian rupee had at that...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4 MMT versus 9.615 MMT in the same previous eight months. For June 2018, they were 19.18 percent lower than May 2018 at 1.007 MMT and down 22...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Increased Sugarcane Prices a Double Blow for the Sugar Industry As this is an election year, the government must please farmers, the backbone of the Indian economy. As it promised in the election manifesto and again in the budget speech to guarantee them at least a 50 percent profit above the c...

softs feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ban on Yellow Pea Imports Extended for Three Months India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the ban on yellow pea imports, first implemented in late April 2018 for a three-month period as the price of chickpeas cotinued to slide, until 30 September 2018. Per the notification, “The...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn and Soymeal Exports Could Keep Prices High Indian corn is competitive and finding markets in Vietnam and Bangladesh. Vietnam continues to import Indian corn in containers at $220-225/MT delivered. This price is compared to U.S. and South American corn at $230/MT delivered. Bangladesh impor...

softs feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Prices Improve on GOI Intervention It seems that the government of India (GOI) has finally heeded the sugar industry’s demand and will create a buffer stock. With the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association now boosting its sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, 2018/19 opening stocks...

soy-oilseeds livestock

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India’s Vegetable Oil Demand and Imports Both Higher in 2017/18 India’s overall vegetable oil imports reached 15.573 MMT for 2017/18 (March-April), a 9.53 percent increase from 14.217 MMT the previous year. This included 15.181 MMT of edible oil and 0.392 MMT of nonedible oil, up fr...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Subsidy for Sugarcane Growers Unable to pay for sugarcane deliveries because of high input costs and low sugar prices, the sugar industry approached the government for an intervention. The arrears owed to farmers had reached $2.98 billion at the end of March 2018, and the government of India (G...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Stats Canada Surprises!

Stats Canada released its initial planting estimates for Canada this morning, which included several significant surprises such as the following: Canola acreage is forecast to drop 7 percent from 2017, well below the trade’s pre-report guesses. This is likely the result of last year&rsqu...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

  Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...

feed-grains wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn Exports Unlikely Without More Signifcant Drop in Domestic Prices Domestic corn prices in the key rabi production center (Gulabbagh, Bihar) have continued to fall. The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) spot price is down and expected to move lower as harvest nears. Old sto...

softs soy-oilseeds wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...

softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...

softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports   India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...

feed-grains livestock wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn Prices Remain Higher, Curbing Export Potential The government of India (GOI) estimated the khariff (October harvest) corn production at 21.47 MMT on 26 September 2018, 1.23 MMT more than the final estimate for that season’s crop last year. The increase is despite the uneven distribut...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulses Demand, Supply and Prices India has been importing large quantities of pulses/lentils over the years. That slowed in the last year, however, as domestic production has increased because of higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Khariff pulses production is expected to rise from 6 MMT in 20...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

How Much Sugar and Ethanol Will India Produce in Sugar Year 2018/19? It was widely speculated about four months ago that India would produce a huge volume of sugar at 35.5 MMT, adding to its problems of plenty. Following new reports of water scarcity and drought conditions in Maharashtra (as we...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Egypt is reportedly looking at the possibility of establishing a wheat hedging program to better protect against the volatility of international wheat prices. The finance ministry is said to be taking a very close look at how such a system cou...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Stable Pulses Demand; Prices Remain Low India’s 2018/10 khariff pulses production is expected to reach 9.2 MMT, down slightly from 9.34 MMT in the previous season. With the rabi crops (sown in October/November and harvested in April) forecast at over 15 MMT, there will be suffient domesti...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Another Bailout Package for Sugar Sector The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a third package to bail out the sugar industry. Worth $758 million, it includes a freight subsidy for sugar exports of up to 5 MMT and $1.89/MT on cane crushed in 2018/19. The first package, v...

soy-oilseeds softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Drop in Vegetable Oil Imports  India’s vegetable oil imports have increased over the years. They rose from 14.42 MMT in 2014/15 (November-October) to 14.57 MMT in 2015/16 and 15.07 MMT (approx. 1.25 MT/month) in 2016/17. In 2017/18, though, overall imports are down. According to data...

wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Wheat Prices Rise, Despite Bumper Crop According to the 4th Advance Agricultural Production estimates released this week, India’s wheat production in 2017/18 was revised to 99.7 MMT and GOI has procured 35.51 MMT so far. Higher production and procurement rates 5 MMT higher than the initia...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains biofuel

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI Restricts Ethanol Imports to Non-Fuel Use Only India announced its new biofuels policy in June 2018, which specifies that only indigenous suppliers using domestic raw materials (e.g., cane juice, B heavy or C grade molasses, and grains unfit for human consumption) to produce ethanol can sup...

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Dropping Rupee Impacts Imports and Economy The Indian rupee has continued to drop in value against the U.S. dollar. It is currently trading at 70.14 versus the USD, and the depreciation is now at 10.30 percent. As noted in the  29 June 2018 report (click here), the Indian rupee had at that...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4 MMT versus 9.615 MMT in the same previous eight months. For June 2018, they were 19.18 percent lower than May 2018 at 1.007 MMT and down 22...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Increased Sugarcane Prices a Double Blow for the Sugar Industry As this is an election year, the government must please farmers, the backbone of the Indian economy. As it promised in the election manifesto and again in the budget speech to guarantee them at least a 50 percent profit above the c...

softs feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ban on Yellow Pea Imports Extended for Three Months India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the ban on yellow pea imports, first implemented in late April 2018 for a three-month period as the price of chickpeas cotinued to slide, until 30 September 2018. Per the notification, “The...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn and Soymeal Exports Could Keep Prices High Indian corn is competitive and finding markets in Vietnam and Bangladesh. Vietnam continues to import Indian corn in containers at $220-225/MT delivered. This price is compared to U.S. and South American corn at $230/MT delivered. Bangladesh impor...

softs feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Prices Improve on GOI Intervention It seems that the government of India (GOI) has finally heeded the sugar industry’s demand and will create a buffer stock. With the Indian Sugar Manufacturers Association now boosting its sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, 2018/19 opening stocks...

soy-oilseeds livestock

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India’s Vegetable Oil Demand and Imports Both Higher in 2017/18 India’s overall vegetable oil imports reached 15.573 MMT for 2017/18 (March-April), a 9.53 percent increase from 14.217 MMT the previous year. This included 15.181 MMT of edible oil and 0.392 MMT of nonedible oil, up fr...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Subsidy for Sugarcane Growers Unable to pay for sugarcane deliveries because of high input costs and low sugar prices, the sugar industry approached the government for an intervention. The arrears owed to farmers had reached $2.98 billion at the end of March 2018, and the government of India (G...

soy-oilseeds wheat feed-grains

Stats Canada Surprises!

Stats Canada released its initial planting estimates for Canada this morning, which included several significant surprises such as the following: Canola acreage is forecast to drop 7 percent from 2017, well below the trade’s pre-report guesses. This is likely the result of last year&rsqu...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

  Record Sugar Production Expected as Prices Tumble and Arrears Mount India’s sugar production for 2017/18 (October-September) is now expected to total 30.3 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 29.5 MMT. The production cycle is coming to an end with output reaching a high of 28.18 M...

feed-grains wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Corn Exports Unlikely Without More Signifcant Drop in Domestic Prices Domestic corn prices in the key rabi production center (Gulabbagh, Bihar) have continued to fall. The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) spot price is down and expected to move lower as harvest nears. Old sto...

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