World Perspectives

Recent Russia Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...

Cold War II; Varying Farm Policy Models

Cold War II In a sign that President Trump is not going to be able to leverage a trade agreement out of China, Beijing issued notice that it will not yield to U.S. demands even with maximum pressure from Washington. This is the strength of a Marxist economy, and it is perhaps helped by a fallin...

wheat feed-grains

SOEs Rule

The U.S. grain trade business has been largely dominated by privately-owned companies for the past several decades. Their efficiency at the business is demonstrated by their success over the years replacing government entities at the task, including succeeding the grain boards in Canada and Aus...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Reported: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production.  Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased 2018/19 exports.  Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million with an i...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops.  Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...

Russia Meat Subsidy; Secondary Effects

Russia Meat Subsidy The Russian government will reportedly allocate $6.5 billion for “soft” export-oriented investment loans to the meat industry. The goal is to greatly boost meat exports and will include construction of “several distribution centers.” The structure of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The beat goes on (just more slowly). Corn and wheat prices were slightly higher overnight with soybeans slightly lower. That’s how the market opened this morning and then traded through much of the session to finish the week. Corn did catch a little fire, though, and its strength was like...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...

Tri-Rift; Labor Waves

Tri-Rift President Donald Trump has ripped apart the trilateral EU-Japan-U.S. policy consortium and looks to increasingly target Europe with his bitterness. Yesterday he threatened reciprocity for Europe’s retaliatory duties against Harley Davidson, and the intent by Brussels to evade his...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading had corn and soybean markets higher with wheat markets slightly lower, and the only thing that changed during today’s session was an extension of those gains and losses. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s positive comments on the China trade deal from over the weekend se...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA estimates that the outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat is unchanged in the April WASDE. Total 2018/19 feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels to 70 million. Wheat exports are lowered 20 million bushels to 945 million on a continued sluggish export pace. There was a 31.5-million-bush...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they turned to more of a mixed stance during the day session as most contracts traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. At the end, Chica...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was another very quiet start to the week overnight with soybeans slightly higher, corn steady and wheat slightly lower. Markets opened steady across the board this morning but found some buying in the first hour of the session that took prices to 3-5 cent gains. The major weekend news was al...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Where Have All the Bulls Gone?

It has been a very tough few weeks for grain and soy market bulls, assuming there are still any left. Those markets have been in a rather steady retreat with hardly any respite, although they have managed a bounce today. Along the way, the wheat and corn markets have set a series of new contrac...

wheat feed-grains

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian GASC has rejected a shipment of Romanian wheat, saying that it does not meet tender specifications. The falling number analysis shows 130 seconds, while the tender standard is 200 seconds. Falling number is important in bread baki...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

According to USDA: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks.  Supplies are increased by 5 million bushels on higher imports.  Wheat exports are lowered 35 million bushels to 965 million with red...

Communist Marketing; GSP Retaliation; Limits on Trade Growth; IT Fight

Communist Marketing Russian Federal Customs Service official Rusian Davydov says he wants to extend the 2014 food embargo restriction to include meat and other livestock products from the U.S., EU and other countries. Meanwhile, his boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin, told the Federal Assem...

Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss

Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The U.S. grants preferential tariff access under GSP to more than 100 countries. Removing Turkey’s eligibility is consistent...

Transatlantic Jostling; USMCA Campaign; Rebalancing Global Contributions

Transatlantic Jostling The Trump administration’s move to tighten sanctions on Cuba concurrently is aimed at Europe. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton has proclaimed measures against a “Troika of Tyranny”- Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, Cuba is a more certain...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week as it followed the decline of the EU and U.S. markets. Russia is exporting about 500 KMT per week, bringing the cumulated total since the start of campaign to 29 MMT as of the end of February. The big question is whether it can exp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

More positive news during the weekend regarding the prospects for an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade conflict buoyed the soybean complex both last night and early in today’s session. China also said late Friday that it will purchase another 10 MMT of U.S. soybeans. The news that Pre...

wheat soy-oilseeds

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look

If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...

Cold War II; Varying Farm Policy Models

Cold War II In a sign that President Trump is not going to be able to leverage a trade agreement out of China, Beijing issued notice that it will not yield to U.S. demands even with maximum pressure from Washington. This is the strength of a Marxist economy, and it is perhaps helped by a fallin...

wheat feed-grains

SOEs Rule

The U.S. grain trade business has been largely dominated by privately-owned companies for the past several decades. Their efficiency at the business is demonstrated by their success over the years replacing government entities at the task, including succeeding the grain boards in Canada and Aus...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Reported: U.S. 2019/20 wheat supplies are down with lower beginning stocks partly offset by slightly higher production.  Beginning stocks are down 25 million bushels on increased 2018/19 exports.  Winter wheat production is forecast up 6 million bushels to 1,274 million with an i...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops.  Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...

Russia Meat Subsidy; Secondary Effects

Russia Meat Subsidy The Russian government will reportedly allocate $6.5 billion for “soft” export-oriented investment loans to the meat industry. The goal is to greatly boost meat exports and will include construction of “several distribution centers.” The structure of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The beat goes on (just more slowly). Corn and wheat prices were slightly higher overnight with soybeans slightly lower. That’s how the market opened this morning and then traded through much of the session to finish the week. Corn did catch a little fire, though, and its strength was like...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...

Tri-Rift; Labor Waves

Tri-Rift President Donald Trump has ripped apart the trilateral EU-Japan-U.S. policy consortium and looks to increasingly target Europe with his bitterness. Yesterday he threatened reciprocity for Europe’s retaliatory duties against Harley Davidson, and the intent by Brussels to evade his...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading had corn and soybean markets higher with wheat markets slightly lower, and the only thing that changed during today’s session was an extension of those gains and losses. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s positive comments on the China trade deal from over the weekend se...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA estimates that the outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat is unchanged in the April WASDE. Total 2018/19 feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels to 70 million. Wheat exports are lowered 20 million bushels to 945 million on a continued sluggish export pace. There was a 31.5-million-bush...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they turned to more of a mixed stance during the day session as most contracts traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. At the end, Chica...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was another very quiet start to the week overnight with soybeans slightly higher, corn steady and wheat slightly lower. Markets opened steady across the board this morning but found some buying in the first hour of the session that took prices to 3-5 cent gains. The major weekend news was al...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Where Have All the Bulls Gone?

It has been a very tough few weeks for grain and soy market bulls, assuming there are still any left. Those markets have been in a rather steady retreat with hardly any respite, although they have managed a bounce today. Along the way, the wheat and corn markets have set a series of new contrac...

wheat feed-grains

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian GASC has rejected a shipment of Romanian wheat, saying that it does not meet tender specifications. The falling number analysis shows 130 seconds, while the tender standard is 200 seconds. Falling number is important in bread baki...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

According to USDA: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks.  Supplies are increased by 5 million bushels on higher imports.  Wheat exports are lowered 35 million bushels to 965 million with red...

Communist Marketing; GSP Retaliation; Limits on Trade Growth; IT Fight

Communist Marketing Russian Federal Customs Service official Rusian Davydov says he wants to extend the 2014 food embargo restriction to include meat and other livestock products from the U.S., EU and other countries. Meanwhile, his boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin, told the Federal Assem...

Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss

Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The U.S. grants preferential tariff access under GSP to more than 100 countries. Removing Turkey’s eligibility is consistent...

Transatlantic Jostling; USMCA Campaign; Rebalancing Global Contributions

Transatlantic Jostling The Trump administration’s move to tighten sanctions on Cuba concurrently is aimed at Europe. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton has proclaimed measures against a “Troika of Tyranny”- Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, Cuba is a more certain...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week as it followed the decline of the EU and U.S. markets. Russia is exporting about 500 KMT per week, bringing the cumulated total since the start of campaign to 29 MMT as of the end of February. The big question is whether it can exp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

More positive news during the weekend regarding the prospects for an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade conflict buoyed the soybean complex both last night and early in today’s session. China also said late Friday that it will purchase another 10 MMT of U.S. soybeans. The news that Pre...

wheat soy-oilseeds

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look

If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...

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