World Perspectives

Recent Russia Analysis

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged.   The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...

wheat

U.S. Wheat’s Uncertain Future

During the past two decades one of the most important U.S. agricultural crop production trends has been the movement of corn and soybean plantings into traditional wheat production areas of the western and northern Plains. Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas have now become important producers of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies; Corn and Soybeans Look for Direction

The CBOT opened higher with support coming from USDA daily “flash” export sales announcements. Corn and soybeans started to weaken by mid-morning, however, and finished the day with a relatively lackluster performance. Wheat, on the other hand, posted another day of double-digit gai...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary - Torn Between Factors

The CBOT was mixed to start the week with corn and soybeans posting lackluster days. The wheat market continued last week’s strength early in the session but quickly found selling pressure that created bearish signals on the charts. Funds were modest net buyers in corn and soybeans while...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Big Event Next Week

Trading is bracketed by bearish crop yields and passable weather on one side, and reasonable demand on the other. The former prevailed today in corn, soy and beef, the latter got the better in wheat and pig meat. White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said China’s buying looks good, bu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Day of Regrets

Yesterday’s bump in the market was because USDA’s WASDE report was not as bearish as feared. Today’s jump is harder to explain - it seems miscalculated. Some say it was based on the prevented planting acres data, but the World Agricultural Outlook Board would have had those nu...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 July 2020 Wheat prices grew in the European part of the domestic Russian market and decreased in the Ural regions and Siberia. Milling rye prices decreased. Corn prices kept growing. Feed barley prices moved in different directions. Meanwhile, on the export market m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race; Grain Monopolization

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race A Nikkei survey of 145 Japanese company CEO’s found that a majority believe it will take at least two years to economically recover from the coronavirus. Basically, 38 percent said it will take two years and 17.8 percent said it will take even longer th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened lower overnight as USDA’s surprise increase in the good/excellent ratings for corn and soybeans pressured the market. Wheat followed corn lower, pressured by spillover selling as well as its own good harvest statistics. The increase in crop conditions ratings seemed to spa...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  European and Black Sea markets are seemingly solely focused on the advancing wheat harvest as well as the early start of rapeseed/summer crop harvests. For most countries, wheat harvest is half-finished or better and yields have reflected earlier expectations. The only real...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT traded a mixed day to close the week with higher wheat futures the only pronounced development. Rising cash wheat values in Russia (up $1-5/MT depending on the region) helped Paris milling wheat move €2.25/MT higher over night and that supported CBOT wheat as well. Wheat/corn bull...

livestock

Building a Poultry Industry

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was in the news inspecting a new chicken farm and calling for improvements to an outdated poultry industry. Efficient poultry production involves processes and feed. The former may be easier than the latter given that country’s climate and geography, though...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 July 2020 Harvesting started in more regions, so the prices were mainly quoted for 2020 grain, and the general price development on the domestic market was negative (except for corn prices that slightly grew). Meanwhile, on the export market, milling wheat average 20...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with Friday’s WASDE confirming that, without a weather event in the Northern Hemisphere this summer, corn and soybean supplies will be ample. Additionally, good odds for precipitation across the U.S. Corn Belt as corn approaches peak pollination...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

wheat

Wheat Market Tightening

The wheat market is tightening as production cuts are hitting France, Russia and Ukraine, plus there has been an increase in tenders. Exports by France are expected to be 7.75 MMT, a 43 percent reduction from 2019/20. Meanwhile, Russia's IKAR reduced its estimate for the Russian wheat crop by 1...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 June-3 July 2020 Harvesting was in progress and in the South and Volga Valley regions prices decreased. Yet, the decrease is not significant as the average yield so far has been lower than in 2019. For export market milling wheat, average 2020 yield price decreased to...

Pessimism Reigns

Global rules for liberalized trade such as the Uruguay Round depended upon strong U.S. leadership backed by the EU. The number of countercurrents to any return to that model are now overwhelming. China has mimicked the U.S. in using economic hostage taking to leverage more nativistic outcomes...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged.   The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...

wheat

U.S. Wheat’s Uncertain Future

During the past two decades one of the most important U.S. agricultural crop production trends has been the movement of corn and soybean plantings into traditional wheat production areas of the western and northern Plains. Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas have now become important producers of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies; Corn and Soybeans Look for Direction

The CBOT opened higher with support coming from USDA daily “flash” export sales announcements. Corn and soybeans started to weaken by mid-morning, however, and finished the day with a relatively lackluster performance. Wheat, on the other hand, posted another day of double-digit gai...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary - Torn Between Factors

The CBOT was mixed to start the week with corn and soybeans posting lackluster days. The wheat market continued last week’s strength early in the session but quickly found selling pressure that created bearish signals on the charts. Funds were modest net buyers in corn and soybeans while...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Big Event Next Week

Trading is bracketed by bearish crop yields and passable weather on one side, and reasonable demand on the other. The former prevailed today in corn, soy and beef, the latter got the better in wheat and pig meat. White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said China’s buying looks good, bu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Day of Regrets

Yesterday’s bump in the market was because USDA’s WASDE report was not as bearish as feared. Today’s jump is harder to explain - it seems miscalculated. Some say it was based on the prevented planting acres data, but the World Agricultural Outlook Board would have had those nu...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mixed with corn and soybeans higher on short-covering and fundamental support heading into Wednesday’s WASDE. End-users were net buyers in corn and funds covered some of their short position as well. Soybeans posted 4-6 cent gains as the market bounced from technical support...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 27-31 July 2020 Wheat prices grew in the European part of the domestic Russian market and decreased in the Ural regions and Siberia. Milling rye prices decreased. Corn prices kept growing. Feed barley prices moved in different directions. Meanwhile, on the export market m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Commodity Collapse

The CBOT was sharply weaker for the second trading day in August. Continued excellent or improving spring crop conditions and private firm forecasts of record corn and soybean yields sparked widespread selling. Corn dipped to new contract lows – as did HRW wheat – while SRW wheat an...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Selling in wheat was the dominant theme at the CBOT on Monday. Weekend news that private firms had made upward revisions to the Russian wheat crop, now forecast just shy of 80 MMT, pressured the CBOT to start the week. Unwinding of wheat/corn spreads helped the latter firm slightly while the so...

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race; Grain Monopolization

Economic Recovery and Quit the Race A Nikkei survey of 145 Japanese company CEO’s found that a majority believe it will take at least two years to economically recover from the coronavirus. Basically, 38 percent said it will take two years and 17.8 percent said it will take even longer th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened lower overnight as USDA’s surprise increase in the good/excellent ratings for corn and soybeans pressured the market. Wheat followed corn lower, pressured by spillover selling as well as its own good harvest statistics. The increase in crop conditions ratings seemed to spa...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  European and Black Sea markets are seemingly solely focused on the advancing wheat harvest as well as the early start of rapeseed/summer crop harvests. For most countries, wheat harvest is half-finished or better and yields have reflected earlier expectations. The only real...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT traded a mixed day to close the week with higher wheat futures the only pronounced development. Rising cash wheat values in Russia (up $1-5/MT depending on the region) helped Paris milling wheat move €2.25/MT higher over night and that supported CBOT wheat as well. Wheat/corn bull...

livestock

Building a Poultry Industry

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was in the news inspecting a new chicken farm and calling for improvements to an outdated poultry industry. Efficient poultry production involves processes and feed. The former may be easier than the latter given that country’s climate and geography, though...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 July 2020 Harvesting started in more regions, so the prices were mainly quoted for 2020 grain, and the general price development on the domestic market was negative (except for corn prices that slightly grew). Meanwhile, on the export market, milling wheat average 20...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with Friday’s WASDE confirming that, without a weather event in the Northern Hemisphere this summer, corn and soybean supplies will be ample. Additionally, good odds for precipitation across the U.S. Corn Belt as corn approaches peak pollination...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

wheat

Wheat Market Tightening

The wheat market is tightening as production cuts are hitting France, Russia and Ukraine, plus there has been an increase in tenders. Exports by France are expected to be 7.75 MMT, a 43 percent reduction from 2019/20. Meanwhile, Russia's IKAR reduced its estimate for the Russian wheat crop by 1...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 June-3 July 2020 Harvesting was in progress and in the South and Volga Valley regions prices decreased. Yet, the decrease is not significant as the average yield so far has been lower than in 2019. For export market milling wheat, average 2020 yield price decreased to...

Pessimism Reigns

Global rules for liberalized trade such as the Uruguay Round depended upon strong U.S. leadership backed by the EU. The number of countercurrents to any return to that model are now overwhelming. China has mimicked the U.S. in using economic hostage taking to leverage more nativistic outcomes...

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