World Perspectives

Recent Russia Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Where Have All the Bulls Gone?

It has been a very tough few weeks for grain and soy market bulls, assuming there are still any left. Those markets have been in a rather steady retreat with hardly any respite, although they have managed a bounce today. Along the way, the wheat and corn markets have set a series of new contrac...

wheat feed-grains

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian GASC has rejected a shipment of Romanian wheat, saying that it does not meet tender specifications. The falling number analysis shows 130 seconds, while the tender standard is 200 seconds. Falling number is important in bread baki...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

According to USDA: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks.  Supplies are increased by 5 million bushels on higher imports.  Wheat exports are lowered 35 million bushels to 965 million with red...

Communist Marketing; GSP Retaliation; Limits on Trade Growth; IT Fight

Communist Marketing Russian Federal Customs Service official Rusian Davydov says he wants to extend the 2014 food embargo restriction to include meat and other livestock products from the U.S., EU and other countries. Meanwhile, his boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin, told the Federal Assem...

Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss

Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The U.S. grants preferential tariff access under GSP to more than 100 countries. Removing Turkey’s eligibility is consistent...

Transatlantic Jostling; USMCA Campaign; Rebalancing Global Contributions

Transatlantic Jostling The Trump administration’s move to tighten sanctions on Cuba concurrently is aimed at Europe. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton has proclaimed measures against a “Troika of Tyranny”- Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, Cuba is a more certain...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week as it followed the decline of the EU and U.S. markets. Russia is exporting about 500 KMT per week, bringing the cumulated total since the start of campaign to 29 MMT as of the end of February. The big question is whether it can exp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

More positive news during the weekend regarding the prospects for an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade conflict buoyed the soybean complex both last night and early in today’s session. China also said late Friday that it will purchase another 10 MMT of U.S. soybeans. The news that Pre...

wheat soy-oilseeds

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look

If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

USDA Reports Simply More of the Same

All had been hoping that the long-awaited USDA reports released today (originally scheduled for publication on 11 January) would reveal new insight, create some new market expectations or inspire the markets. Unfortunately, none of this was realized. Instead, they provided much of what had been...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

According to USDA: Projected 2018/19 wheat ending stocks are raised 36 million bushels on reduced feed and residual use and lower seed use.  Feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels on larger than expected second-quarter stocks reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The grain and oilseed markets were quiet overnight and again today. Volume was light in corn and soybeans but better than average in wheat. The markets will want to see all the numbers in the 11 January USDA reports that are to be released this Friday before setting any new direction. U.S. equi...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Balls in the Air

Grain and soy futures markets are currently juggling a number of important “balls in the air.” One might say this is always true, and it is. Out of the current array being juggled, however, some rank very high on the scale of importance. - Most obvious of these is the U.S.-Chin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note: The CFTC will resume its Commitment of Traders (COT) reports this Friday with release of the 28 December report. Thereafter, it will issue reports chronologically each Tuesday and Friday until they are caught up. USDA/FAS is tentatively scheduled to release an export sales report on Thurs...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

CME grain and soy futures struggled to find volume and price direction amid the continued lack of inputs from USDA and with little else to lead them. Trading volume today can best be described as awful. Prices moved slightly lower, mostly as a result of neglect, and remained range-bound during...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Guessing Games

With fresh USDA data on crop production, quarterly stocks, winter wheat acreage, export sales and changes to supply/demand analyses all suspended by the government shutdown, guesswork has become temporarily respectable. While a great deal of that is being disseminated, very little of it is iden...

wheat feed-grains biofuel

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong winds are reportedly causing docking and visibility difficulties due to sand and dust storms. Egypt normally experiences strong khamaseen winds...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Lower U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks Again in 2019/20

One of the major USDA reports that were supposed to be issued today was the U.S. winter wheat planting estimate. WPI’s own estimate that was discussed last Friday (click here ) includes a 1.9 million acre reduction in those plantings and an 800,000 acre increase in spring wheat plant...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...

Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal; Globalization’s Future

Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal It comes with downsides, but U.S. agriculture continues to be highlighted in a manner that would have been unheard of a few years ago. Analysts would listen keenly for the rare times when a president would make a mere mention of farmers in the annual State of...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Where Have All the Bulls Gone?

It has been a very tough few weeks for grain and soy market bulls, assuming there are still any left. Those markets have been in a rather steady retreat with hardly any respite, although they have managed a bounce today. Along the way, the wheat and corn markets have set a series of new contrac...

wheat feed-grains

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS The Egyptian GASC has rejected a shipment of Romanian wheat, saying that it does not meet tender specifications. The falling number analysis shows 130 seconds, while the tender standard is 200 seconds. Falling number is important in bread baki...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

According to USDA: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks.  Supplies are increased by 5 million bushels on higher imports.  Wheat exports are lowered 35 million bushels to 965 million with red...

Communist Marketing; GSP Retaliation; Limits on Trade Growth; IT Fight

Communist Marketing Russian Federal Customs Service official Rusian Davydov says he wants to extend the 2014 food embargo restriction to include meat and other livestock products from the U.S., EU and other countries. Meanwhile, his boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin, told the Federal Assem...

Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss

Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The U.S. grants preferential tariff access under GSP to more than 100 countries. Removing Turkey’s eligibility is consistent...

Transatlantic Jostling; USMCA Campaign; Rebalancing Global Contributions

Transatlantic Jostling The Trump administration’s move to tighten sanctions on Cuba concurrently is aimed at Europe. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton has proclaimed measures against a “Troika of Tyranny”- Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, Cuba is a more certain...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Milling Wheat The Black Sea market was under pressure last week as it followed the decline of the EU and U.S. markets. Russia is exporting about 500 KMT per week, bringing the cumulated total since the start of campaign to 29 MMT as of the end of February. The big question is whether it can exp...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

More positive news during the weekend regarding the prospects for an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade conflict buoyed the soybean complex both last night and early in today’s session. China also said late Friday that it will purchase another 10 MMT of U.S. soybeans. The news that Pre...

wheat soy-oilseeds

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand – A Fresh Look

If there was surprise contained in the array of USDA reports released last Friday, it was how unremarkable they were. Analysts (including this one) assumed that within such a variety of data, there must be a few market-moving surprises. However, that was not the case. Pre-report expectations we...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets started the week lower in the Sunday evening session with soybeans the weakest followed by wheat and corn. The lower pattern continued through to today’s market, but the losses in soybeans and wheat worsened. Soybeans eventually closed down 8-9.5 cents, but Chicago wheat managed t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

USDA Reports Simply More of the Same

All had been hoping that the long-awaited USDA reports released today (originally scheduled for publication on 11 January) would reveal new insight, create some new market expectations or inspire the markets. Unfortunately, none of this was realized. Instead, they provided much of what had been...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

According to USDA: Projected 2018/19 wheat ending stocks are raised 36 million bushels on reduced feed and residual use and lower seed use.  Feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels on larger than expected second-quarter stocks reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The grain and oilseed markets were quiet overnight and again today. Volume was light in corn and soybeans but better than average in wheat. The markets will want to see all the numbers in the 11 January USDA reports that are to be released this Friday before setting any new direction. U.S. equi...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Balls in the Air

Grain and soy futures markets are currently juggling a number of important “balls in the air.” One might say this is always true, and it is. Out of the current array being juggled, however, some rank very high on the scale of importance. - Most obvious of these is the U.S.-Chin...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Note: The CFTC will resume its Commitment of Traders (COT) reports this Friday with release of the 28 December report. Thereafter, it will issue reports chronologically each Tuesday and Friday until they are caught up. USDA/FAS is tentatively scheduled to release an export sales report on Thurs...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

CME grain and soy futures struggled to find volume and price direction amid the continued lack of inputs from USDA and with little else to lead them. Trading volume today can best be described as awful. Prices moved slightly lower, mostly as a result of neglect, and remained range-bound during...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Guessing Games

With fresh USDA data on crop production, quarterly stocks, winter wheat acreage, export sales and changes to supply/demand analyses all suspended by the government shutdown, guesswork has become temporarily respectable. While a great deal of that is being disseminated, very little of it is iden...

wheat feed-grains biofuel

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN COMMENTS Bad weather in Egypt has closed four ports on the Red Sea and two on the Mediterranean. Very strong winds are reportedly causing docking and visibility difficulties due to sand and dust storms. Egypt normally experiences strong khamaseen winds...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets rebounded overnight following Thursday’s big losses. It was interesting that no one could come up with a solid reason yesterday for the unexpected and big fund selling. Some attributed it to the fact that there would be no USDA reports released today, which include the winter whea...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Lower U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks Again in 2019/20

One of the major USDA reports that were supposed to be issued today was the U.S. winter wheat planting estimate. WPI’s own estimate that was discussed last Friday (click here ) includes a 1.9 million acre reduction in those plantings and an 800,000 acre increase in spring wheat plant...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures traded quietly overnight amid low volume, and prices were not much changed by the morning recess. The overnight action (or rather the lack thereof) did not prepare traders for the big and broad sell-off that took place during the day session. Bulls like to be fed every day...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices were slightly firmer overnight across the board. Chicago and KC wheat were up 4-5 cents at one point with corn and soybeans 2-3 cents higher. This firmness carried over to the day session with all prices entirely green until late selling by index funds dropped wheat...

Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal; Globalization’s Future

Agriculture’s Unique Pedestal It comes with downsides, but U.S. agriculture continues to be highlighted in a manner that would have been unheard of a few years ago. Analysts would listen keenly for the rare times when a president would make a mere mention of farmers in the annual State of...

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