World Perspectives

Recent South America Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Ag Markets Bounce, Pullback as Omicron Detected in U.S.

The CBOT started the day higher with corn and the soy complex leading the way after “buy on the bounce” and “risk on” trade developed overnight and in the early morning. Confirmation from the EU that Omicron coronavirus cases present with relatively mild symptoms and a l...

livestock

AI Impact

As the media tracks the spread of the Omicron version of COVID, there are reports of additional outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in Europe. Like COVID, there are many varieties of avian influenza (AI) with low pathogenic the predominant form but high pathogenic forms consti...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)

Ocean Freight Comments - 18 November 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Today’s dry-bulk refrain is, “have we hit bottom yet”. Volatility has certainly been the operative word for dry-bulk markets. One month ago, vessel owners believed rates were shooting for the moon. Af...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 1 December)

Ocean Freight Comments - 18 November 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Today’s dry-bulk refrain is, “have we hit bottom yet”. Volatility has certainly been the operative word for dry-bulk markets. One month ago, vessel owners believed rates were shooting for the moon. Af...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)

“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Ag Markets Weaker on Limited News, Strong U.S. Dollar, and Technical Selling

The CBOT was generally weaker to start the week with heavy overnight trade pushing wheat and soybeans higher while corn was lower. Today was the last trading day before first notice day on the 30 November and traders were actively exiting December positions. Given the general length in the CBOT...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Last week was a short one for trading with Monday having been an Argentine holiday and Thursday marking the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Markets were, of course, extremely volatile on Friday, and these factors combined to keep developments limited in both FAS and FOB markets. Wheat  Good wea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Rally; Wheat Posts Reversal; Corn Fails at Key Resistance Level

The CBOT was higher overnight with continued worries about world wheat supplies and weather driving the markets. Wheat futures continued their upside run in early day trading and posted new contract highs before profit taking pushed the market lower and formed technical reversals on the charts...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally; Cattle Higher After Neutral On Feed Report

CBOT futures were higher to start the week with wheat leading the rally. Drought in the U.S. Plains, too much rain in eastern Australia, and geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea all combined to drive Paris, Australian, CBOT and KCBT wheat futures to new contract highs. Corn was pulled higher...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s government has already started playing games with the export declarations allowances. They reopened the export registry for additional quantities of 100 KMT of old crop (2020/2021) against a vessel nominations, plus 500 KMT of new crop wheat and 1 MMT of new crop corn. After t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Record Gains, Then Losses

It was a strange trading day with twists and turns that were at a minimum, unusual: Grains and oilseeds all closed higher overnight and then continued that trend in this morning’s open, with wheat again leading with double-digit higher gains.  There were new contract highs in SRW...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Sales; U.S. Soyoil Stocks; Lysine Shortage; Brazilian Production Costs

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans and soymeal had fair success making export sales during the week ending 11 November. Sales of soyoil for export were excellent and the largest weekly total since the week ending 5 Novembe...

Selective Application; Missing Agenda

Selective Application The EU proposed a new regulation requiring due diligence on the part of companies marketing specific products (soybeans, beef, palm oil, wood, cocoa and coffee derived products such as leather, chocolate and furniture) that were not derived from newly deforested geographie...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soymeal Rally Continues; NOPA Crush Report Supportive; New Highs for Chicago Wheat

Soymeal and Chicago wheat were the upside leaders at the CBOT on Monday. Soymeal saw a round of active short-covering and technical buying while the wheat market posted fresh contract highs on Russian export concerns. The soymeal rally helped pull soybean futures higher and near long-term techn...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Brazil Last week Brazil became the first country to authorize the use of wheat flour made with genetically modified (GM) wheat (specifically, the HB4 variety at issue between Brazil and Argentina). The authorization is only for flour and does not include the commercialization and/or impor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Whether and Weather

The USDA Export Sales report is delayed until tomorrow due to today’s Veterans Day holiday and so it is not definitive whether China has been in the market, and whether overall export demand is alive. Then there is the wobbling of weather forecasts, though those remain mostly bearish. The...

Inflation is Good; Transitory Fake Meat; Not so Fast; Fading Green

Inflation is Good The news yesterday about the surprising rise in U.S. inflation spooked markets and has President Biden’s team scrambling to avoid political blame for the problem. The problem is average consumers see the price of food, fuel and housing eating up their income at a faster...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

CAFTA-DR Rewrite; Phase One Failure; Divergent Transatlantic

CAFTA-DR Rewrite When the CAFTA-DR FTA was finalized back in 2004, GDP in the Central American region was 30 percent smaller. Since that time, growth as been disproportionate. The Costa Rican economy has grown by 65 percent, Guatemala and Honduras are 37 percent richer, and the Dominican Republ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

The U.S. season-average soyoil price for 2020/21 is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

The U.S. season-average soymeal price for 2020/21 is unchanged at $325 per short ton...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

The November WASDE projected U.S. soybean ending stocks at 340 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 20 million from the October forecast. The projected season-average soybean price received by producers is reduced 25 cents to $12.10 per bushel. Global soybean stocks are r...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

The November WASDE projected U.S. corn ending stocks at 1,493 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. This estimate is down 7 million from the October forecast. The projected season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 202...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

The November WASDE projected U.S. wheat ending stocks at 583 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 3 million from the October forecast. The projected 2021/22 season-average U.S. farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.90. Global wheat ending stocks are down 1.4 million...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: WASDE Surprises Soybeans; Wheat Exporter Supplies Tighten; Record U.S. Corn Yield

Traders and analysts were decidedly bearish soybeans heading into the WASDE, but USDA’s report was anything but bearish the U.S. market. USDA cut U.S. soybean yields and production and increased ending stocks by a smaller-than-expected amount, causing a 50-cent rally in soybean futures af...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Ag Markets Bounce, Pullback as Omicron Detected in U.S.

The CBOT started the day higher with corn and the soy complex leading the way after “buy on the bounce” and “risk on” trade developed overnight and in the early morning. Confirmation from the EU that Omicron coronavirus cases present with relatively mild symptoms and a l...

livestock

AI Impact

As the media tracks the spread of the Omicron version of COVID, there are reports of additional outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in Europe. Like COVID, there are many varieties of avian influenza (AI) with low pathogenic the predominant form but high pathogenic forms consti...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 1 December)

Ocean Freight Comments - 18 November 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Today’s dry-bulk refrain is, “have we hit bottom yet”. Volatility has certainly been the operative word for dry-bulk markets. One month ago, vessel owners believed rates were shooting for the moon. Af...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 1 December)

Ocean Freight Comments - 18 November 2021 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Today’s dry-bulk refrain is, “have we hit bottom yet”. Volatility has certainly been the operative word for dry-bulk markets. One month ago, vessel owners believed rates were shooting for the moon. Af...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)

“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Ag Markets Weaker on Limited News, Strong U.S. Dollar, and Technical Selling

The CBOT was generally weaker to start the week with heavy overnight trade pushing wheat and soybeans higher while corn was lower. Today was the last trading day before first notice day on the 30 November and traders were actively exiting December positions. Given the general length in the CBOT...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Last week was a short one for trading with Monday having been an Argentine holiday and Thursday marking the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Markets were, of course, extremely volatile on Friday, and these factors combined to keep developments limited in both FAS and FOB markets. Wheat  Good wea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Cattle Extend Rally; Wheat Posts Reversal; Corn Fails at Key Resistance Level

The CBOT was higher overnight with continued worries about world wheat supplies and weather driving the markets. Wheat futures continued their upside run in early day trading and posted new contract highs before profit taking pushed the market lower and formed technical reversals on the charts...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads CBOT Rally; Cattle Higher After Neutral On Feed Report

CBOT futures were higher to start the week with wheat leading the rally. Drought in the U.S. Plains, too much rain in eastern Australia, and geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea all combined to drive Paris, Australian, CBOT and KCBT wheat futures to new contract highs. Corn was pulled higher...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s government has already started playing games with the export declarations allowances. They reopened the export registry for additional quantities of 100 KMT of old crop (2020/2021) against a vessel nominations, plus 500 KMT of new crop wheat and 1 MMT of new crop corn. After t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Record Gains, Then Losses

It was a strange trading day with twists and turns that were at a minimum, unusual: Grains and oilseeds all closed higher overnight and then continued that trend in this morning’s open, with wheat again leading with double-digit higher gains.  There were new contract highs in SRW...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Sales; U.S. Soyoil Stocks; Lysine Shortage; Brazilian Production Costs

Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA/FAS export sales report indicated exporters of U.S. soybeans and soymeal had fair success making export sales during the week ending 11 November. Sales of soyoil for export were excellent and the largest weekly total since the week ending 5 Novembe...

Selective Application; Missing Agenda

Selective Application The EU proposed a new regulation requiring due diligence on the part of companies marketing specific products (soybeans, beef, palm oil, wood, cocoa and coffee derived products such as leather, chocolate and furniture) that were not derived from newly deforested geographie...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soymeal Rally Continues; NOPA Crush Report Supportive; New Highs for Chicago Wheat

Soymeal and Chicago wheat were the upside leaders at the CBOT on Monday. Soymeal saw a round of active short-covering and technical buying while the wheat market posted fresh contract highs on Russian export concerns. The soymeal rally helped pull soybean futures higher and near long-term techn...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Brazil Last week Brazil became the first country to authorize the use of wheat flour made with genetically modified (GM) wheat (specifically, the HB4 variety at issue between Brazil and Argentina). The authorization is only for flour and does not include the commercialization and/or impor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Whether and Weather

The USDA Export Sales report is delayed until tomorrow due to today’s Veterans Day holiday and so it is not definitive whether China has been in the market, and whether overall export demand is alive. Then there is the wobbling of weather forecasts, though those remain mostly bearish. The...

Inflation is Good; Transitory Fake Meat; Not so Fast; Fading Green

Inflation is Good The news yesterday about the surprising rise in U.S. inflation spooked markets and has President Biden’s team scrambling to avoid political blame for the problem. The problem is average consumers see the price of food, fuel and housing eating up their income at a faster...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

CAFTA-DR Rewrite; Phase One Failure; Divergent Transatlantic

CAFTA-DR Rewrite When the CAFTA-DR FTA was finalized back in 2004, GDP in the Central American region was 30 percent smaller. Since that time, growth as been disproportionate. The Costa Rican economy has grown by 65 percent, Guatemala and Honduras are 37 percent richer, and the Dominican Republ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

The U.S. season-average soyoil price for 2020/21 is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

The U.S. season-average soymeal price for 2020/21 is unchanged at $325 per short ton...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

The November WASDE projected U.S. soybean ending stocks at 340 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 20 million from the October forecast. The projected season-average soybean price received by producers is reduced 25 cents to $12.10 per bushel. Global soybean stocks are r...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

The November WASDE projected U.S. corn ending stocks at 1,493 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. This estimate is down 7 million from the October forecast. The projected season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 202...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

The November WASDE projected U.S. wheat ending stocks at 583 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 3 million from the October forecast. The projected 2021/22 season-average U.S. farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.90. Global wheat ending stocks are down 1.4 million...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: WASDE Surprises Soybeans; Wheat Exporter Supplies Tighten; Record U.S. Corn Yield

Traders and analysts were decidedly bearish soybeans heading into the WASDE, but USDA’s report was anything but bearish the U.S. market. USDA cut U.S. soybean yields and production and increased ending stocks by a smaller-than-expected amount, causing a 50-cent rally in soybean futures af...

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