FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 7 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 7 December 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting As the old saying goes, “what goes up, must come down.” Dry bulk markets were not kind to Capesize vessel owners this week as that sector witnessed an historic one-day decline on Thursday. Markets seem confu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 7 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 7 December 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: As the old saying goes, “what goes up, must come down.” Dry bulk markets were not kind to Capesize vessel owners this week as that sector witnessed an historic one-day decline on Thursday. Markets seem conf...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Cattle Find New Contract Lows
The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export sales to China, which boosted wheat futures initially, but there was a subsequent sense of reluctance to exit profitable short positions ahea...
Market Commentary: Second Day of SRW Sales to China Boosts Wheat; Pre-WASDE Consolidation Begins
Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upside leader for the past several sessions as a combination of growing bullish fundamentals and aggressive fund short covering lift the market...
Market Commentary: Rains Send Soy Complex Lower; China Sales, Short Covering Extend Wheat Rally
Rains in Brazil and Argentina heavily influenced the CBOT to start the week and sent the entire soy complex sharply lower. The precipitation also weighed on corn futures, which settled essentially unchanged, but was offset by the continuing rally in wheat futures. Wheat was again sharply higher...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving at high speed and advanced 10 percent last week, which put the total harvest above 35 percent of the area. Most fields are being harvested 7-10 days earlier than usual, which is why at this point last year the harvest was only 20 percent comple...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally, Soy Falls to End Volatile Week; Grain Crushing Report Bullish
The CBOT continued its mid-week trends into the week’s end with corn and wheat futures posting another higher day with short covering and technical, speculative buying offering support. The soy complex struggled for the day and all three components of the crush ended lower as the weekend...
Market Commentary: Exports versus Weather and Crude Oil
It was a mixed day for futures trading with corn and wheat rebounding from early week contract lows but the soy complex sliding lower on a weak petroleum market that dragged soyoil down with it. Weather added a bearish overlay as rains continue to be helpful for Argentina and the forecas...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows to Start the Week
Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, carving out new contract lows. There was no bullish news for wheat, cattle, or hogs, which led to a deluge of selling to start the week. The w...
Brazil’s Corn at Greater Risk than Soybeans
Analysts have noted the analog years for adverse El Niño impacts in Brazil as 2015/16 and 2020/21. As in those years, Brazil has had limited moisture and intense heat in major central and norther production areas. However, corn was more adversely impacted than soybeans in both of those p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics and Policy Argentina’s outgoing presidential administration’s first post-election measure was to increase the percentage of foreign currency that exporters can re-enter into the system through the free exchange market (financial dollar). Now, exporters can allocate 50...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as do Rains in Brazil; Livestock Futures Find Post-Holiday Selloff
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly lower to end the holiday-shortened week with favorable weather forecasts for Brazil pressuring the grains and oilseeds complex while cash market weakness sent livestock futures tumbling. Trading volume was above-average for most markets compared to most post...
Market Commentary: CBOT Edges Lower in Risk-Off, Pre-Holiday Trade
CBOT grain and oilseed futures were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders reduced risk ahead of Thursday’s market closure and the shortened trading day on Friday. While the dynamics of futures exchange trading hours played a role in the day’s trade, the general lack of fresh news was...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Climb on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Russian Attacks
Wheat futures were the exception to the CBOT’s trend-following trade on Tuesday, as the market rallied following another round of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports. The news sent wheat higher with CBOT futures up 10+ cents in a clear break from their recent trend lower. Corn and soybeans...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Overcomes Weak Start to Post Big Gains; Wheat Finds New Lows
The story of the CBOT was the sharply lower opening soybeans and soymeal suffered overnight, thanks to heavy rains in Brazil over the weekend. Those early losses, however, were fully erased by midday and both markets posted sharp gains due to China’s import program and the long-term outlo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine Policy Updates Last night, Argentina’s Liberal candidate for president, Javier Milei, was elected as the next President of Argentina and will assume his role on 10 December 2023. In his campaign, he promised to move the country’s economy to the U.S. dollar, eliminate expor...
Market Commentary: Wetter Brazil Forecast Sends Corn, Soy Lower; KC Wheat Hits 2-Year Low
Most of this week’s early rally in the grain and oilseed markets was justified by the challenging weather in Brazil. The weather has not only impacted the soybean first corn crops currently being planted, but also the planting prospects of the safrinha – or double-crop – corn...
Market Commentary: Good Exports but Brazilian Wildcard
The market was in the red across the board at the open and mostly stayed that way. The exceptions being corn and lean hogs. They broke to the upside late morning and while lean hogs wobbled, both were in the green at the close. Despite the downbeat of the past two sessions, corn and the s...
Market Commentary: Failed Turnaround Tuesday; Inflation Data Emboldens Markets
Bears tried to push the soy complex and corn lower in Tuesday’s early trade as they hoped for a correction following Monday’s rally. That was not to be, however, as the soy complex found strong buying interest from ongoing soymeal demand and sharp gains in Malaysian palm oil that pu...
Market Commentary: China Buying and Soymeal Demand Sends Soy Complex, Corn Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with sharp rallies in soymeal and soybeans creating spillover buying for the rest of the grain markets. Funds were active buyers in both markets with strong spot demand for soymeal driving that market’s rally while soybeans rallied on Chinese b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Thanks to the recent good weather, Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving from north to south and total harvest has reached 15 percent of the area. Yields are coming in below expectations, so the Rosario Grain Exchange again reduced its crop estimation from 14 to 13.5 MMT. Rains arr...
European Market Analysis
Through 9 November, Ukraine’s grain harvest reached 90 percent of the total area and spanned 9.84 million hectares (MHa). The total crop is 51.275 MMT, of which corn production has hit 21.22 MMT and the harvest is 72 percent complete. Sunflower seed production has hit 11.52 MMT and just 3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Quiet to End WASDE Week; Bullish South America Weather Looms
The WASDE’s bearish implications continued to push CBOT futures lower on Friday with funds finding little reason to abandon short positions in corn and wheat. The soybean market saw some gains to end the week, however, traders thought Thursday’s 20-cent, post-WASDE selloff, like man...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 7 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 7 December 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting As the old saying goes, “what goes up, must come down.” Dry bulk markets were not kind to Capesize vessel owners this week as that sector witnessed an historic one-day decline on Thursday. Markets seem confu...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 7 December)
Ocean Freight Comments - 7 December 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting: As the old saying goes, “what goes up, must come down.” Dry bulk markets were not kind to Capesize vessel owners this week as that sector witnessed an historic one-day decline on Thursday. Markets seem conf...
Market Commentary: Brazil Rains, Profit Taking Push CBOT Lower; Cattle Find New Contract Lows
The CBOT turned red for the day with the rallies in wheat and corn fading with the December WASDE looming on Friday. USDA reported fresh SRW wheat export sales to China, which boosted wheat futures initially, but there was a subsequent sense of reluctance to exit profitable short positions ahea...
Market Commentary: Second Day of SRW Sales to China Boosts Wheat; Pre-WASDE Consolidation Begins
Trends at the CBOT continue to diverge with wheat futures rallying sharply on fresh Chinese interest in U.S. SRW wheat. The wheat market has been the upside leader for the past several sessions as a combination of growing bullish fundamentals and aggressive fund short covering lift the market...
Market Commentary: Rains Send Soy Complex Lower; China Sales, Short Covering Extend Wheat Rally
Rains in Brazil and Argentina heavily influenced the CBOT to start the week and sent the entire soy complex sharply lower. The precipitation also weighed on corn futures, which settled essentially unchanged, but was offset by the continuing rally in wheat futures. Wheat was again sharply higher...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving at high speed and advanced 10 percent last week, which put the total harvest above 35 percent of the area. Most fields are being harvested 7-10 days earlier than usual, which is why at this point last year the harvest was only 20 percent comple...
Market Commentary: Grains Rally, Soy Falls to End Volatile Week; Grain Crushing Report Bullish
The CBOT continued its mid-week trends into the week’s end with corn and wheat futures posting another higher day with short covering and technical, speculative buying offering support. The soy complex struggled for the day and all three components of the crush ended lower as the weekend...
Market Commentary: Exports versus Weather and Crude Oil
It was a mixed day for futures trading with corn and wheat rebounding from early week contract lows but the soy complex sliding lower on a weak petroleum market that dragged soyoil down with it. Weather added a bearish overlay as rains continue to be helpful for Argentina and the forecas...
Market Commentary: Corn Posts Bullish Reversal; Wheat, Hogs Follow Through on Reversals
Grains were once again the upside leader at the CBOT on Wednesday with wheat following through on Tuesday’s reversal in KCBT futures and the large gains in the CBOT market. On Wednesday, however, the corn market joined in on the rally and the March contract posted a bullish reversal on it...
Market Commentary: New Contract Lows to Start the Week
Ag futures were almost uniformly red to start the week with wheat, corn, and the livestock markets extending Friday’s weakness and, in many cases, carving out new contract lows. There was no bullish news for wheat, cattle, or hogs, which led to a deluge of selling to start the week. The w...
Brazil’s Corn at Greater Risk than Soybeans
Analysts have noted the analog years for adverse El Niño impacts in Brazil as 2015/16 and 2020/21. As in those years, Brazil has had limited moisture and intense heat in major central and norther production areas. However, corn was more adversely impacted than soybeans in both of those p...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Macroeconomics and Policy Argentina’s outgoing presidential administration’s first post-election measure was to increase the percentage of foreign currency that exporters can re-enter into the system through the free exchange market (financial dollar). Now, exporters can allocate 50...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall as do Rains in Brazil; Livestock Futures Find Post-Holiday Selloff
The CBOT and CME markets were mostly lower to end the holiday-shortened week with favorable weather forecasts for Brazil pressuring the grains and oilseeds complex while cash market weakness sent livestock futures tumbling. Trading volume was above-average for most markets compared to most post...
Market Commentary: CBOT Edges Lower in Risk-Off, Pre-Holiday Trade
CBOT grain and oilseed futures were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders reduced risk ahead of Thursday’s market closure and the shortened trading day on Friday. While the dynamics of futures exchange trading hours played a role in the day’s trade, the general lack of fresh news was...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soy Climb on Brazilian Weather; Wheat Rises on Russian Attacks
Wheat futures were the exception to the CBOT’s trend-following trade on Tuesday, as the market rallied following another round of Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports. The news sent wheat higher with CBOT futures up 10+ cents in a clear break from their recent trend lower. Corn and soybeans...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Overcomes Weak Start to Post Big Gains; Wheat Finds New Lows
The story of the CBOT was the sharply lower opening soybeans and soymeal suffered overnight, thanks to heavy rains in Brazil over the weekend. Those early losses, however, were fully erased by midday and both markets posted sharp gains due to China’s import program and the long-term outlo...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentine Policy Updates Last night, Argentina’s Liberal candidate for president, Javier Milei, was elected as the next President of Argentina and will assume his role on 10 December 2023. In his campaign, he promised to move the country’s economy to the U.S. dollar, eliminate expor...
Market Commentary: Wetter Brazil Forecast Sends Corn, Soy Lower; KC Wheat Hits 2-Year Low
Most of this week’s early rally in the grain and oilseed markets was justified by the challenging weather in Brazil. The weather has not only impacted the soybean first corn crops currently being planted, but also the planting prospects of the safrinha – or double-crop – corn...
Market Commentary: Good Exports but Brazilian Wildcard
The market was in the red across the board at the open and mostly stayed that way. The exceptions being corn and lean hogs. They broke to the upside late morning and while lean hogs wobbled, both were in the green at the close. Despite the downbeat of the past two sessions, corn and the s...
Market Commentary: Failed Turnaround Tuesday; Inflation Data Emboldens Markets
Bears tried to push the soy complex and corn lower in Tuesday’s early trade as they hoped for a correction following Monday’s rally. That was not to be, however, as the soy complex found strong buying interest from ongoing soymeal demand and sharp gains in Malaysian palm oil that pu...
Market Commentary: China Buying and Soymeal Demand Sends Soy Complex, Corn Higher
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with sharp rallies in soymeal and soybeans creating spillover buying for the rest of the grain markets. Funds were active buyers in both markets with strong spot demand for soymeal driving that market’s rally while soybeans rallied on Chinese b...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Thanks to the recent good weather, Argentina’s wheat harvest keeps moving from north to south and total harvest has reached 15 percent of the area. Yields are coming in below expectations, so the Rosario Grain Exchange again reduced its crop estimation from 14 to 13.5 MMT. Rains arr...
European Market Analysis
Through 9 November, Ukraine’s grain harvest reached 90 percent of the total area and spanned 9.84 million hectares (MHa). The total crop is 51.275 MMT, of which corn production has hit 21.22 MMT and the harvest is 72 percent complete. Sunflower seed production has hit 11.52 MMT and just 3...
Market Commentary: CBOT Quiet to End WASDE Week; Bullish South America Weather Looms
The WASDE’s bearish implications continued to push CBOT futures lower on Friday with funds finding little reason to abandon short positions in corn and wheat. The soybean market saw some gains to end the week, however, traders thought Thursday’s 20-cent, post-WASDE selloff, like man...