World Perspectives

Recent South America Analysis

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Soybean Refresh

A great deal of proverbial water has passed under the bridge since WPI wrote about our initial soybean outlook for MY 2019/20 on 14 January Not very much has been good for U.S. soybean or soymeal export demand. There is still no trade deal between the U.S. and China, although most analysts beli...

Policy Opportunities and Risks

Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its seventh “World Happiness Report,” and the OECD issued a first “Risks that Matter” tome. The volumes rely heavily on...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S.Soy Export Sales; Turkey’s Soy Imports, Russian Soy Trade

U.S. Soy Export Sales Update After weeks of substantial sales, USDA’s weekly export sales report indicated there was a sharp drop for the week ending 14 March. Net soybean export sales totaled only 399,500 MT, a 79 percent decline from the previous week. The largest sales were to Germany...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Export Trends Year-End USDA Data Shows Trade Winners and Losers Following delays caused by the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, USDA has now managed to update its reports regarding U.S. agricultural exports through the end of 2018. A look at the total figures reveal some surprising find...

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns; China Hopeful

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns Today’s joint statement by U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had some good news for American agriculture. Brazil agreed to create a 750 KMT wheat tariff-rate quota (TRQ) with zero duty and follow science-based standards in re...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: African Swine Fever and Soy Demand; Argentine Soybean Sales; Bolivian Drought

Global Soy Demand May Take Big Hit from African Swine Fever The widespread outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) is now well known, and it continues unabated in China even though controlling the disease has been made a top priority there. The Chinese government has officially indicated that the...

Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts

Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations may be headed for an even deeper depression. The European Parliament voted against endorsing the trade mandate sought by Brussels for talks...

feed-grains

March Corn Update

There have been changes to the 2018/19 corn balance sheet since our first look at the potential supply/demand outlook on 18 January. USDA reduced the export and ethanol forecasts by 75 million bushels and 25 million bushels, respectively, in the March WASDE. The result was a 100 million bushel...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...

EU-U.S. Tentative Deal on Beef

Even though the EU-U.S. trade agreement talks are not moving apace, largely because of the EU reluctance to include agriculture versus U.S. insistence that it must be on the table, there does seem to be movement on beef exports. The parties have reached an “agreement in principle” t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...

soy-oilseeds biofuel

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; EU Biodiesel, Palm Oil Futures; EU Rapeseed

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated U.S. exporters were quite successful selling soybeans to China and elsewhere in the week ending 7 March. Meanwhile, soymeal and soyoil export sales were relatively modest. Net soybean export sales for shipm...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends February Economic Data Points to Serious Weakness Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 percent last month, the lowest level since May 2017. It should be noted that a figure below 50 p...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record lows. It began rather gradually in the overnight session, which saw trading volume notably higher than average. Prices started out slightly l...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybeans; U.S. Census Soymeal Data Revision; U.S. Soy Plantings; WASDE Soy Changes

Conab Reduces Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today reduced its estimate for the country’s 2019 soybean crop by 1.6 percent from 115.343 MMT to 113.459 MMT. This change is based on an average yield of 3.168 MT/hectare (47.1 bushels/acre). Conab al...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Where Have All the Bulls Gone?

It has been a very tough few weeks for grain and soy market bulls, assuming there are still any left. Those markets have been in a rather steady retreat with hardly any respite, although they have managed a bounce today. Along the way, the wheat and corn markets have set a series of new contrac...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Update Last week China finally decided to buy more U.S. soybeans, purchasing approximately 2 MMT. The stocks were mainly from the Pacific Northwest (PNW), but there was some volume from the U.S. Gulf (USG). The trades were around 148/150 for PNW and 162/160N for USG, all perform...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn, wheat and soybean started ever so slightly firmer Sunday evening and then traded mixed the rest of the night. All the markets started today’s session lower, and the losses mounted as the day wore on. There just isn’t any fundamental news out to ignite even a minor short-coveri...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

According to USDA: With increased crush, soybean oil production is raised 115 million pounds to 24.6 billion.  Soybean oil used for methyl ester production for biodiesel is raised 200 million pounds to 8.2 billion on record production for the first quarter of the marketing year (Oct-Sept)...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

According to USDA:  Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 2,100 million on higher domestic disappearance of soybean meal and a lower soybean meal extraction rate reflecting data reported by NASS in the Oilseed Crushings report.  Soybean meal price is unchanged at $295 to $335...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

According to USDA: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report.  With exports unchanged, soybean stocks are projected at 900 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.  The season-average s...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

According to USDA:  This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks.  Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

According to USDA: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks.  Supplies are increased by 5 million bushels on higher imports.  Wheat exports are lowered 35 million bushels to 965 million with red...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Soybean Refresh

A great deal of proverbial water has passed under the bridge since WPI wrote about our initial soybean outlook for MY 2019/20 on 14 January Not very much has been good for U.S. soybean or soymeal export demand. There is still no trade deal between the U.S. and China, although most analysts beli...

Policy Opportunities and Risks

Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its seventh “World Happiness Report,” and the OECD issued a first “Risks that Matter” tome. The volumes rely heavily on...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S.Soy Export Sales; Turkey’s Soy Imports, Russian Soy Trade

U.S. Soy Export Sales Update After weeks of substantial sales, USDA’s weekly export sales report indicated there was a sharp drop for the week ending 14 March. Net soybean export sales totaled only 399,500 MT, a 79 percent decline from the previous week. The largest sales were to Germany...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Export Trends Year-End USDA Data Shows Trade Winners and Losers Following delays caused by the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, USDA has now managed to update its reports regarding U.S. agricultural exports through the end of 2018. A look at the total figures reveal some surprising find...

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns; China Hopeful

Brazil Progress, OECD Concerns Today’s joint statement by U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had some good news for American agriculture. Brazil agreed to create a 750 KMT wheat tariff-rate quota (TRQ) with zero duty and follow science-based standards in re...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: African Swine Fever and Soy Demand; Argentine Soybean Sales; Bolivian Drought

Global Soy Demand May Take Big Hit from African Swine Fever The widespread outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) is now well known, and it continues unabated in China even though controlling the disease has been made a top priority there. The Chinese government has officially indicated that the...

Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts

Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations may be headed for an even deeper depression. The European Parliament voted against endorsing the trade mandate sought by Brussels for talks...

feed-grains

March Corn Update

There have been changes to the 2018/19 corn balance sheet since our first look at the potential supply/demand outlook on 18 January. USDA reduced the export and ethanol forecasts by 75 million bushels and 25 million bushels, respectively, in the March WASDE. The result was a 100 million bushel...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Overview There was some movement at the beginning of last week when Chinese crushers decided to cover their open positions for March, April and May. The U.S. should not be competitive for these months, especially considering the significant delays in shipments at the U.S. Gulf d...

EU-U.S. Tentative Deal on Beef

Even though the EU-U.S. trade agreement talks are not moving apace, largely because of the EU reluctance to include agriculture versus U.S. insistence that it must be on the table, there does seem to be movement on beef exports. The parties have reached an “agreement in principle” t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...

soy-oilseeds biofuel

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; EU Biodiesel, Palm Oil Futures; EU Rapeseed

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights Today’s USDA weekly export sales report indicated U.S. exporters were quite successful selling soybeans to China and elsewhere in the week ending 7 March. Meanwhile, soymeal and soyoil export sales were relatively modest. Net soybean export sales for shipm...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains

China In-Country Analysis

Marco Trends February Economic Data Points to Serious Weakness Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics indicates the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 percent last month, the lowest level since May 2017. It should be noted that a figure below 50 p...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record lows. It began rather gradually in the overnight session, which saw trading volume notably higher than average. Prices started out slightly l...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybeans; U.S. Census Soymeal Data Revision; U.S. Soy Plantings; WASDE Soy Changes

Conab Reduces Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today reduced its estimate for the country’s 2019 soybean crop by 1.6 percent from 115.343 MMT to 113.459 MMT. This change is based on an average yield of 3.168 MT/hectare (47.1 bushels/acre). Conab al...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Where Have All the Bulls Gone?

It has been a very tough few weeks for grain and soy market bulls, assuming there are still any left. Those markets have been in a rather steady retreat with hardly any respite, although they have managed a bounce today. Along the way, the wheat and corn markets have set a series of new contrac...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Soybeans Market Update Last week China finally decided to buy more U.S. soybeans, purchasing approximately 2 MMT. The stocks were mainly from the Pacific Northwest (PNW), but there was some volume from the U.S. Gulf (USG). The trades were around 148/150 for PNW and 162/160N for USG, all perform...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Corn, wheat and soybean started ever so slightly firmer Sunday evening and then traded mixed the rest of the night. All the markets started today’s session lower, and the losses mounted as the day wore on. There just isn’t any fundamental news out to ignite even a minor short-coveri...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

According to USDA: With increased crush, soybean oil production is raised 115 million pounds to 24.6 billion.  Soybean oil used for methyl ester production for biodiesel is raised 200 million pounds to 8.2 billion on record production for the first quarter of the marketing year (Oct-Sept)...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

According to USDA:  Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 2,100 million on higher domestic disappearance of soybean meal and a lower soybean meal extraction rate reflecting data reported by NASS in the Oilseed Crushings report.  Soybean meal price is unchanged at $295 to $335...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

According to USDA: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report.  With exports unchanged, soybean stocks are projected at 900 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.  The season-average s...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

According to USDA:  This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks.  Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

According to USDA: The outlook for 2018/19 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, lower exports, reduced domestic use, and higher ending stocks.  Supplies are increased by 5 million bushels on higher imports.  Wheat exports are lowered 35 million bushels to 965 million with red...

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