World Perspectives

Recent South America Analysis

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans

Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn  Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, slower than WPI expected. It currently spans 25 percent of the area, which implies an 8 percent delay compared to the five-year average. The progress is slowed as combines are still fully engaged in harvesting soybeans and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential

The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market

There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...

feed-grains livestock

Brazil Leans into Meat

Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn production this year could be down almost 10 percent from a year ago, and USDA’s latest forecast has 2024/25 output down 7.2 percent from 2022/...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress

The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop

In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerned about Northern Hemisphere weather. Monday’s trade was seemingly primarily focused on the dryness and recent frost/freeze events in c...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major floods. There are many dead, injured, and evacuated individuals. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 50 percent of the country's wheat pro...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads WASDE-Defying CBOT Rally

The CBOT was higher heading into Friday’s May WASDE report from the USDA with weather and production concerns in various parts of the globe driving futures into the green. The WASDE didn’t really support an outlook for higher trade/prices, but the CBOT rallied anyway after the repor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weather and Old versus New Crop

The trade continued to position ahead of tomorrow’s May USDA WASDE report. Some took profits as they backed out of positions but, overall, there was lower volume. The exception being soyoil where a new July contract low was printed. Adverse South American crop weather supports old crop v...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Contract on More Pre-WASDE Positioning

Grain futures continue to retreat from their recent rally highs with traders unwilling to overextend risks heading into Friday’s WASDE report. The WASDE should be supportive old crop futures from cuts to the Brazilian and Argentine crops, but new crop futures could see pressure from expec...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Traders Pause CBOT Rally While Eyeing WASDE

The grain market fundamentals didn’t change much from Monday to Tuesday, but traders largely suspended their short-covering or long-positioning efforts as they looked ahead to the May WASDE. The report will be issued this Friday and will include USDA’s first projections for MY 2024/...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bulls Are Running Again

Bulls remain firmly in charge of CBOT ag trade with weather concerns seemingly around the world prompting short covering and fresh long buying. Wheat and soybeans were the upside leaders at the CBOT once again as these two commodities hold the most bullish weather implications. Corn was largely...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Currently, Argentine farmers have harvested 22 percent of the corn area, with a weekly progress of only 2.3 percent. While soybean harvesting takes precedence and progresses much faster, farmers are only now able to enter some fields after the rains of the past few weeks. The Buenos Aires...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality

The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Mostly Higher on Weather

After days of flat to faltering closes, corn and soybeans have now rebounded the past two days, and today wheat joined the rally. In two days, July corn has gained 13 cents and July soybeans are up 36 cents.  USDA’s Export Sales report showed old crop washouts and lower actual expor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Remains Choppy, Volatile as Weather Drives Markets

The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third straight day amid more forecasts of showers for previously dry production regions. The soy complex recovered a bit from Tuesday’s sellof...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Pulls Back from Weather Rally; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex

The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with wheat futures (except the MGEX market) pulling back amid profit taking and a general feeling of a correction after their recent rally. The soy complex, on the other hand, saw a strong rally in soymeal as the plight of the Argentine crop is bolster...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest only advanced by 2 percentage points last week as the rains show no mercy, making it difficult for farmers to enter the fields. Moreover, the focus of those who can enter fields remains on soybeans, which are typically harvested as soon as possible and take p...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary Market Commentary: Wheat Leads the Way on Weather Worries; Soyoil Rallies on China SAF Plans

Reports of frost damage in Ukraine sent CBOT futures higher to start the week with wheat once again leading the way. Weather conditions remain challenging for wheat seemingly across the entire Northern Hemisphere, which has created the meteoric rise in values. Now, concerning weather forecasts...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn  Argentina’s corn harvest continues to progress slowly, slower than WPI expected. It currently spans 25 percent of the area, which implies an 8 percent delay compared to the five-year average. The progress is slowed as combines are still fully engaged in harvesting soybeans and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bulls Rest Amid Quiet Headlines but Weather Minimizes Downside Potential

The CBOT was mixed to close a week that has generally featured quiet or range-bound trade (except the soyoil market) with traders seemingly weighing their long-term outlooks amid conflicting weather and production signals. Wheat was lower on Friday with pressure coming from larger-than-expected...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: A Breather in the Market

There was little pushing the market one way or another today, other than a sense that things had been pushed high enough for now. The open was mostly higher but that softened not long after the open. The run-up in prices last week led to farmer selling, and so this was a third day of selling co...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 16 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 16 May)

Ocean Freight Comments - 16 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry-bulk freight markets remain choppy and volatile albeit with a generally higher trend. Rates took a step back this week amid weaker cargo demand in the Atlantic and Pacific markets, which created a surplus of ship availability. Time cha...

feed-grains livestock

Brazil Leans into Meat

Over the past decade, Brazilian corn production has grown faster than its output of animal protein, but that may be changing. Brazil’s corn production this year could be down almost 10 percent from a year ago, and USDA’s latest forecast has 2024/25 output down 7.2 percent from 2022/...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soyoil Sinks as Cooking Oil Escapes Tariffs; Grains Fall on Crop Progress

The CBOT pushed higher overnight with corn notching a new four-month high and wheat futures extending their rally, but that strength quickly faded during the day session. One of the biggest drivers for the day’s declines was the failure of used cooking oil to be included in the Biden Admi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Still Leads CBOT Rally; Frost/Freeze Threatens Russian Wheat Crop

In what has become a common refrain this year, wheat futures were again the upside leader in Monday’s CBOT trade as markets are increasingly concerned about Northern Hemisphere weather. Monday’s trade was seemingly primarily focused on the dryness and recent frost/freeze events in c...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Brazil’s state of Rio Grande do Sul is experiencing the worst climatic catastrophe in the last 80 years, with intense rains causing major floods. There are many dead, injured, and evacuated individuals. Rio Grande do Sul represents approximately 50 percent of the country's wheat pro...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. U.S. ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 445 million bushels, up...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. corn is for modestly larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. U.S...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase six percent from 2023/24. U.S. wheat yield is projected at 48.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels. 2024/25 ending stocks are eleven percent above la...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Leads WASDE-Defying CBOT Rally

The CBOT was higher heading into Friday’s May WASDE report from the USDA with weather and production concerns in various parts of the globe driving futures into the green. The WASDE didn’t really support an outlook for higher trade/prices, but the CBOT rallied anyway after the repor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weather and Old versus New Crop

The trade continued to position ahead of tomorrow’s May USDA WASDE report. Some took profits as they backed out of positions but, overall, there was lower volume. The exception being soyoil where a new July contract low was printed. Adverse South American crop weather supports old crop v...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Contract on More Pre-WASDE Positioning

Grain futures continue to retreat from their recent rally highs with traders unwilling to overextend risks heading into Friday’s WASDE report. The WASDE should be supportive old crop futures from cuts to the Brazilian and Argentine crops, but new crop futures could see pressure from expec...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Traders Pause CBOT Rally While Eyeing WASDE

The grain market fundamentals didn’t change much from Monday to Tuesday, but traders largely suspended their short-covering or long-positioning efforts as they looked ahead to the May WASDE. The report will be issued this Friday and will include USDA’s first projections for MY 2024/...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Bulls Are Running Again

Bulls remain firmly in charge of CBOT ag trade with weather concerns seemingly around the world prompting short covering and fresh long buying. Wheat and soybeans were the upside leaders at the CBOT once again as these two commodities hold the most bullish weather implications. Corn was largely...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Currently, Argentine farmers have harvested 22 percent of the corn area, with a weekly progress of only 2.3 percent. While soybean harvesting takes precedence and progresses much faster, farmers are only now able to enter some fields after the rains of the past few weeks. The Buenos Aires...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality

The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Mostly Higher on Weather

After days of flat to faltering closes, corn and soybeans have now rebounded the past two days, and today wheat joined the rally. In two days, July corn has gained 13 cents and July soybeans are up 36 cents.  USDA’s Export Sales report showed old crop washouts and lower actual expor...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Remains Choppy, Volatile as Weather Drives Markets

The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third straight day amid more forecasts of showers for previously dry production regions. The soy complex recovered a bit from Tuesday’s sellof...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Pulls Back from Weather Rally; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex

The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with wheat futures (except the MGEX market) pulling back amid profit taking and a general feeling of a correction after their recent rally. The soy complex, on the other hand, saw a strong rally in soymeal as the plight of the Argentine crop is bolster...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Corn Argentina’s corn harvest only advanced by 2 percentage points last week as the rains show no mercy, making it difficult for farmers to enter the fields. Moreover, the focus of those who can enter fields remains on soybeans, which are typically harvested as soon as possible and take p...

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