Market Commentary: Weather Worries Nearing a Ceiling
Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat higher for a seventh straight session, and pork finally took a fall. There was high volume trading in corn today but without any strong fee...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Weather Rally; Corn, Soybeans Steady While Eyeing Weather
Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and the Black Sea. Until a few weeks ago, there were few doubts about the 2024 crop being able to supply the expected demand, but now reduced yi...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains to Close Week; Wheat Firms on Bullish News
The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supportive development in the IGC’s lower 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast, dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains, and smaller Russian 2024...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
Market Commentary: Grains Shake off WASDE Blues on Weather Concerns; Livestock Futures Collapse Again
Trade in ag futures saw greatly diverging trends on Friday with the grains and oilseeds markets strengthening after Thursday’s relatively bearish WASDE report while livestock markets collapsed further. The grain market saw support from more news of large U.S. soybean export sales –...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Market Commentary: Small But Bearish Changes
When you see a bear, start backward charging, and that is what corn, beans, and wheat did today. The Board was under pressure ahead of the release of USDA’S April WASDE report and while few changes were expected in the report, and few were made, the ones announced reinforced the bearish t...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Positioning, Crop Conditions, Weather Forecasts Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with traders increasingly focused on preparing for Thursday’s WASDE report amid little fresh news. Declining crude oil prices pulled the soy complex lower as did slight upward revisions from private firms for the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There is much talk about Argentina’s new wheat campaign outlook that mostly centers on the uncertainty regarding planted area. The consensus right now, however, is that the 2024/25 area will decrease from the prior year. Seed and input sales for planting are lagging last year’...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Overnight and Vegoils Extend Rally
The CBOT started the overnight session on a strong note with solid volume and most markets heading into the green. Fresh fundamental news was light and it seems most of the day’s trade was due to short covering, spillover support from the vegoil and crude oil markets, and light commercial...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week without rain, Argentina’s corn harvest gained momentum and reached nearly 6 percent of the area. This had the consequent effect of increasing truck arrivals at ports, which was a relief for exporters who face a vessel lineup of 1.8 MMT of corn. Argentina has already expo...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally
The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast of Argentina’s corn harvest estimate by 2.5 MMT down to 54 MMT last week. The main reasons are the February heatwave (which affected the mid- and late-season corn), excessive rainfall, and inclement weather that caused yield losses...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on Vegoil Strength; Record Cow-Calf Profits Forecast for 2024
The CBOT largely reversed the trends of the prior two days as wheat futures pulled back while the soy complex jumped to sharp gains and the corn market saw quiet strength. The soy complex is reacting to growing strength in broader vegoil markets, especially Malaysian palm oil, and that fundamen...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains Continue while Corn, Soy Slide Sideways
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with traders consolidating positions ahead of next week’s Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports. Fresh fundamental news was light, which left corn and the soy complex to drift sideways/lower while wheat futures pushed higher with support comi...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Nearing a Ceiling
Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat higher for a seventh straight session, and pork finally took a fall. There was high volume trading in corn today but without any strong fee...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Weather Rally; Corn, Soybeans Steady While Eyeing Weather
Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and the Black Sea. Until a few weeks ago, there were few doubts about the 2024 crop being able to supply the expected demand, but now reduced yi...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains to Close Week; Wheat Firms on Bullish News
The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supportive development in the IGC’s lower 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast, dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains, and smaller Russian 2024...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 19 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 19 April)
Ocean Freight Comments - 19 April 2024 By Matt Herrington Spot dry-bulk freight markets remain weak amid dull April demand but rates are improving for May and June with improved interest in booking cargoes. Chinese demand for iron ore and coal has improved and bolstered capesize rates while gra...
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
Market Commentary: Grains Shake off WASDE Blues on Weather Concerns; Livestock Futures Collapse Again
Trade in ag futures saw greatly diverging trends on Friday with the grains and oilseeds markets strengthening after Thursday’s relatively bearish WASDE report while livestock markets collapsed further. The grain market saw support from more news of large U.S. soybean export sales –...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Market Commentary: Small But Bearish Changes
When you see a bear, start backward charging, and that is what corn, beans, and wheat did today. The Board was under pressure ahead of the release of USDA’S April WASDE report and while few changes were expected in the report, and few were made, the ones announced reinforced the bearish t...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Positioning, Crop Conditions, Weather Forecasts Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with traders increasingly focused on preparing for Thursday’s WASDE report amid little fresh news. Declining crude oil prices pulled the soy complex lower as did slight upward revisions from private firms for the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There is much talk about Argentina’s new wheat campaign outlook that mostly centers on the uncertainty regarding planted area. The consensus right now, however, is that the 2024/25 area will decrease from the prior year. Seed and input sales for planting are lagging last year’...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Overnight and Vegoils Extend Rally
The CBOT started the overnight session on a strong note with solid volume and most markets heading into the green. Fresh fundamental news was light and it seems most of the day’s trade was due to short covering, spillover support from the vegoil and crude oil markets, and light commercial...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week without rain, Argentina’s corn harvest gained momentum and reached nearly 6 percent of the area. This had the consequent effect of increasing truck arrivals at ports, which was a relief for exporters who face a vessel lineup of 1.8 MMT of corn. Argentina has already expo...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Leads CBOT with Vegoil Rally
The biggest moves in ag commodity futures are in the vegoil markets right now, with stronger Malaysian palm oil exports and drought threats pushing values higher. Last week, Malaysian palm oil scored new contract highs and helped CBOT soyoil rally, and similar trends developed in Monday’s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast of Argentina’s corn harvest estimate by 2.5 MMT down to 54 MMT last week. The main reasons are the February heatwave (which affected the mid- and late-season corn), excessive rainfall, and inclement weather that caused yield losses...
Market Commentary: Soy Complex Rallies on Vegoil Strength; Record Cow-Calf Profits Forecast for 2024
The CBOT largely reversed the trends of the prior two days as wheat futures pulled back while the soy complex jumped to sharp gains and the corn market saw quiet strength. The soy complex is reacting to growing strength in broader vegoil markets, especially Malaysian palm oil, and that fundamen...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains Continue while Corn, Soy Slide Sideways
The CBOT was mostly sideways on Tuesday with traders consolidating positions ahead of next week’s Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions reports. Fresh fundamental news was light, which left corn and the soy complex to drift sideways/lower while wheat futures pushed higher with support comi...