Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, KCBT Wheat Lead Tuesday Rallies; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with traders increasingly preparing and positioning for the coming acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soy complex was the upside leader for the day with turnaround in soymeal and soybeans gaining steam and attracting more technical buying interest. There...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rain fell over the past few days and helped stop the deterioration of the corn crop, but this does not mean the estimate of between 35 and 36 MMT won't fall further. The harvest is complete across approximately 5 percent of the area with an average yield of 3.45 MT/ha. Everyone was expecti...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
Market Commentary: Liquidation Week
Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commercials speculate with their money and analysts speculate about what such funds are thinking. Given the timing, there was guessing that it is...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Pork, Brazilian Beef Exports Resume to China
With Easter retail orders mostly complete, the pork cutout, especially hams, is under pressure. From the beginning of March, the ham primal has dropped 16 percent; the only other cut with a bigger drop is the belly. Through last week, hog slaughter was up 1.6 percent over the same 10 wee...
Market Commentary: Corn Survives Otherwise Bearish Day; Soy Complex Falls on Weaker Chinese Markets
The CBOT was mostly on the defensive at mid-week with funds and bears remaining in control of futures markets. Wheat was the downside leader with a wave of selling hitting all three markets after the morning opening. That pressure helped push corn lower initially, though old crop futures manage...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soyoil Lead CBOT Lower; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT was red nearly across the board on Tuesday as favorable weather for the U.S. and Europe as well as the renewed Black Sea export corridor agreement put funds in a selling mood. Grain futures tried to rally in early trade but were quickly pushed back by strong managed money and even some...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is still super boring in Argentina as the market dynamics repeat themselves day after day. There is no farmer selling, millers are buying slowly to cover their spot needs, and only from time to time will exporters come out to sell part of their wheat. Consequently, prices in the loc...
Market Commentary: Macroeconomic Shockwaves Create CBOT Jitters
The CBOT’s trade on Monday was initially focused on the weekend failure of two major banks, a fact that sent shockwaves through the macroeconomic markets to start the week. The biggest impact was heightened volatility and a strong “risk off” mentality that initially impacted C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s soil moisture maps are, frankly, scary. The moisture profiles are totally dry, and in many cases soils need more than 200 mm to recover. Different weather forecasts show the end of the La Nina for the short term, but rains are still not coming. The southeastern...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Firm to End Punishing Week; Technical Weakness Pushes Cattle, Soyoil Lower
After a bloodbath of a week, the CBOT finally showed some signs of support and higher trade on Friday. Wheat was actually the upside leader (yes, you read that correctly), due largely to short-covering and risk-off trade related to Russia’s increased attacks in Ukraine and the risks facin...
Market Commentary: Weird, Weird Day
Today’s market opened generally tracking the higher close in the overnight session. It was bolstered by more cuts in expected Argentina production. But then USDA’s Export Sales report indicated marketing year record low soybeans sales last week and there was an about face that turne...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Higher exports more than offsetting lower crush, and the U.S. ending stocks are estimate is reduced 15 million bushels to 210 m...
WASDE Corn
CORN: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date. The season-average corn price is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks, at 296...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Market Commentary: WASDE Features Deep Cuts to Argy Crops, U.S. Corn Exports
The CBOT was, as it usually is, solely focused on the USDA’s WASDE report that came out at Noon today. Heading into the report, ag futures were mixed in light volume trade with wheat and corn heading lower while soybeans were 6-7 cents higher. The WASDE offered little fundamental informat...
Market Commentary: Short-Covering Lifts Wheat; Soy Complex Falls on Plunging Crude and Soyoil
Tuesday’s CBOT trade was largely devoted to pre-WASDE report positioning and position evening. Wheat futures staged a mild turn-around and settled a few cents higher amid deeply oversold technical conditions. Soybean futures turned lower as a pronounced selloff in crude oil and soyoil pul...
Market Commentary: Red-Hot Meal Market Pulls Soybeans Higher; Funds Retain Bearish Control of Wheat
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with just two full trading days before the March WASDE report. There was a good bit of pre-report positioning that occurred on Monday but trading volumes were still surprisingly heavy, except for corn. The major surprise of the CBOT continues to be soymeal,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The weather continues to give no respite for Argentina’s corn crop. The country is experiencing a heat wave with few precedents at a time of relentless drought no predicted rains. Both crop conditions and moisture conditions continue to deteriorate week by week. Presently, 63 percent...
Market Commentary: Bear Scent
This should be the window for U.S. export sales, but it has been strangely quiet. There were rumors of a Chinese purchase this week, but nothing has been confirmed. If exports falter and U.S. farmers produce a bumper crop this summer, the surplus stocks overhang will plunge prices. Speculators...
Market Commentary: Calm Before the Reports
All the major contracts opened in the green but by the close only soymeal, HRW, and the livestock complex remained that way. Profit-taking was one aspect but most noticeable was lower volume for most of the markets, and a narrow trading range for many. It appeared that everything was positioned...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 30 Mar.)
Ocean Freight Comments - 30 March 2023 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Dry-bulk ocean freight markets were fairly quiet and dull this week and moved mostly sideways. Vessel owners continue to look for improved cargo demand, and finding none, must settle for holding rates steady and not losin...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Spreads Bullish before Reports; Wheat Pares Early Gains
The ag trading world is abuzz with discussion of the coming Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports that USDA will release on Friday. The stocks report is usually relatively (we use that word loosely) easy to predict but the planting numbers notoriously escape the range of pre-report est...
Market Commentary: Soymeal, KCBT Wheat Lead Tuesday Rallies; Acreage and Stocks Reports Loom
The CBOT was mostly higher on Tuesday with traders increasingly preparing and positioning for the coming acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soy complex was the upside leader for the day with turnaround in soymeal and soybeans gaining steam and attracting more technical buying interest. There...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rain fell over the past few days and helped stop the deterioration of the corn crop, but this does not mean the estimate of between 35 and 36 MMT won't fall further. The harvest is complete across approximately 5 percent of the area with an average yield of 3.45 MT/ha. Everyone was expecti...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Export Ban Rumors; Corn Rises on China Buying, Brazil Weather
The CBOT was sharply higher for the day with wheat leading the day’s rallies. Wheat futures jumped higher on news that Russia might ban wheat and sunflower oil exports to support local prices. In addition to possibly banning wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russian officials indicated the...
Market Commentary: Liquidation Week
Funds continued to abandon commodities today. Corn, soymeal, and SRW wheat followed the overnight session with a higher open but then collapsed. Non-commercials speculate with their money and analysts speculate about what such funds are thinking. Given the timing, there was guessing that it is...
Livestock Roundup: U.S. Pork, Brazilian Beef Exports Resume to China
With Easter retail orders mostly complete, the pork cutout, especially hams, is under pressure. From the beginning of March, the ham primal has dropped 16 percent; the only other cut with a bigger drop is the belly. Through last week, hog slaughter was up 1.6 percent over the same 10 wee...
Market Commentary: Corn Survives Otherwise Bearish Day; Soy Complex Falls on Weaker Chinese Markets
The CBOT was mostly on the defensive at mid-week with funds and bears remaining in control of futures markets. Wheat was the downside leader with a wave of selling hitting all three markets after the morning opening. That pressure helped push corn lower initially, though old crop futures manage...
Market Commentary: Wheat, Soyoil Lead CBOT Lower; Cattle Rally from Technical Support
The CBOT was red nearly across the board on Tuesday as favorable weather for the U.S. and Europe as well as the renewed Black Sea export corridor agreement put funds in a selling mood. Grain futures tried to rally in early trade but were quickly pushed back by strong managed money and even some...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is still super boring in Argentina as the market dynamics repeat themselves day after day. There is no farmer selling, millers are buying slowly to cover their spot needs, and only from time to time will exporters come out to sell part of their wheat. Consequently, prices in the loc...
Market Commentary: Macroeconomic Shockwaves Create CBOT Jitters
The CBOT’s trade on Monday was initially focused on the weekend failure of two major banks, a fact that sent shockwaves through the macroeconomic markets to start the week. The biggest impact was heightened volatility and a strong “risk off” mentality that initially impacted C...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s soil moisture maps are, frankly, scary. The moisture profiles are totally dry, and in many cases soils need more than 200 mm to recover. Different weather forecasts show the end of the La Nina for the short term, but rains are still not coming. The southeastern...
Market Commentary: Corn, Wheat Firm to End Punishing Week; Technical Weakness Pushes Cattle, Soyoil Lower
After a bloodbath of a week, the CBOT finally showed some signs of support and higher trade on Friday. Wheat was actually the upside leader (yes, you read that correctly), due largely to short-covering and risk-off trade related to Russia’s increased attacks in Ukraine and the risks facin...
Market Commentary: Weird, Weird Day
Today’s market opened generally tracking the higher close in the overnight session. It was bolstered by more cuts in expected Argentina production. But then USDA’s Export Sales report indicated marketing year record low soybeans sales last week and there was an about face that turne...
WASDE Soybeans
SOYBEANS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Higher exports more than offsetting lower crush, and the U.S. ending stocks are estimate is reduced 15 million bushels to 210 m...
WASDE Corn
CORN: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date. The season-average corn price is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks, at 296...
WASDE Wheat
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook is unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price forecast also remains unchanged at $9.00 per bushel. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 267.2 million, as smaller stocks for China more than offset increases for Argen...
Market Commentary: WASDE Features Deep Cuts to Argy Crops, U.S. Corn Exports
The CBOT was, as it usually is, solely focused on the USDA’s WASDE report that came out at Noon today. Heading into the report, ag futures were mixed in light volume trade with wheat and corn heading lower while soybeans were 6-7 cents higher. The WASDE offered little fundamental informat...
Market Commentary: Short-Covering Lifts Wheat; Soy Complex Falls on Plunging Crude and Soyoil
Tuesday’s CBOT trade was largely devoted to pre-WASDE report positioning and position evening. Wheat futures staged a mild turn-around and settled a few cents higher amid deeply oversold technical conditions. Soybean futures turned lower as a pronounced selloff in crude oil and soyoil pul...
Market Commentary: Red-Hot Meal Market Pulls Soybeans Higher; Funds Retain Bearish Control of Wheat
The CBOT was mixed to start the week with just two full trading days before the March WASDE report. There was a good bit of pre-report positioning that occurred on Monday but trading volumes were still surprisingly heavy, except for corn. The major surprise of the CBOT continues to be soymeal,...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The weather continues to give no respite for Argentina’s corn crop. The country is experiencing a heat wave with few precedents at a time of relentless drought no predicted rains. Both crop conditions and moisture conditions continue to deteriorate week by week. Presently, 63 percent...
Market Commentary: Bear Scent
This should be the window for U.S. export sales, but it has been strangely quiet. There were rumors of a Chinese purchase this week, but nothing has been confirmed. If exports falter and U.S. farmers produce a bumper crop this summer, the surplus stocks overhang will plunge prices. Speculators...