World Perspectives

Recent South America Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Losses; Corn, Soyoil Strengthen; Hogs Rally on ASF News

The CBOT was mostly lower in low-volume, pre-holiday trade. Monday is a holiday in the U.S. and the CBOT/CME (and WPI’s offices) will be closed. Notable developments for the day were the turnaround in corn and soyoil futures, which were juxtaposed against the continued technical weakness...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Guessing La Niña

This year’s La Niña event has been categorized as historically a moderate one. The rains coming to parts of South America this weekend attest to it not being a historically strong event. However, this makes guessing its final impact on crops more challenging to assess. Another chal...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseeds Situation Update

Most of the current changes are on the supply side of the ledger. This week’s USDA WASDE has come and gone but its effects linger. The agency’s 7 percent increase in U.S. surplus soybeans stocks held more sway than its reduction in global carryover down to 95 MMT from the December e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Definitively Lower

The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: WASDE Cuts S. American Crops, Raises U.S. Carry-Out; Report Whipsaws Soybeans

Today’s CBOT trade was all about the WASDE with markets trading quietly lower before the report’s noon ET release. The report, while mostly in-line with expectations, elicited a swift, selloff reaction from the markets after its release, as the USDA increased ending stocks for all t...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean meal price is projected at $375 per short ton, up 45 dollars...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 10 million bushels to 350 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $12.60 per bushel, up 50 cents...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 47 million bushels to 1,540 million. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. ...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 628 million.  The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.15. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Firmer Heading into WASDE; Cattle Rally from Technical Support

The CBOT turned higher on the last day of pre-WASDE trading as continued short covering in wheat and a bullish response to CONAB’s new production data drove the markets. Funds are long corn and soybeans heading into the USDA’s January WASDE report tomorrow and have been actively cov...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spreads Reversed Ahead of WASDE; Livestock Futures Sharply Lower

CBTO trade on Monday was all about positioning for Wednesday’s WASDE report from USDA. Traders took out some of the weather premium that was bid into soybean and corn futures while they unwound long soy/corn versus wheat spreads. Position squaring and spread trade was dominant today with...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Wheat/Corn Trust The Argentine government is being creative in trying to control inflation rates. They are trying to control local wheat and corn prices by creating a “trust fund” for domestic market consumption. Exporters will have to contribute about $150 million...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rally on Technical and Index Fund Buying; Wheat Posts Chart Reversal

The CBOT turned higher heading into the weekend with soybeans and soymeal posting big rallies near mid-day. Soybeans and soymeal pushed above technical resistance and uncovered a wealth of buy-stops that carried the markets higher into the close. Market chatter suggests index funds started thei...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Situation Update

As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. The CFTC reports that speculators increased their net long positions in soybeans in the week to 4 January by 5,140 contracts to a total of 85,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Topsy Turvey

Corn and cattle opened down but settled up; soyoil opened up but closed down with the rest of the complex; and wheat never saw the light of day. The rationale for the doldrums at the open was news of a March increase in the Federal Funds rate. That would reduce liquidity and inflation, starving...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: March Soybeans Falter at $14.00; Corn, Wheat Lower Amid Fund Selling

The CBOT traded a mixed day with wheat and corn futures posting losses on moderate fund selling and buyers’ more cautious approach amid increased volatility. The soy complex, however, posted another day of strong gains with soyoil becoming the upside leader on a technically bullish day. S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Boisterous Day

The second trading day of the new year started modestly enough. Corn and soybeans were up a nickel, soymeal was in the hole. Then with a burst of volume corn quickly moved into double digit gains with soybeans subsequently bumped much higher. Wheat was more moderate with SRW even turning negati...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on Brazil Yield Risk; Corn, Wheat Lower on Technical Selling

The CBOT started the week on a strong note with continued drought forecast across South America offering support Sunday night. March soybeans ended the overnight session up 8¾ cents after trading as much as 22 cents higher while corn futures firmed 4¼ cents heading into the mornin...

feed-grains

WASDE Adjustments to South America

La Niña events are not infrequent and should provide some level of predictability. However, there is wide variability in each event, seed genetics consistently improve and so does crop forecasting capability. In the past three La Niña years between USDA’s December WASDE fore...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat In the last two weeks, amid drought and sunny, warm weather, Argentina’s wheat harvest moved fast and reached almost 90 percent of the planted area. The crop is still estimated between 21.5 to 22 MMT and could increase if yields in the south exceed their average volume.  Since...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Profit Taking, Brazil Rains Weigh on CBOT

The CBOT came under pressure Thursday from a combination of end-of-year profit taking and rains that are pushing into southern Brazil. Traders were eager to book profits in ag commodities after their Christmas-time rally with only two trading days left in the year. Commodities have been excelle...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soyoil Rallies on Huge Export Sales; Corn, Soybeans Hold Technical Gains

The CBOT was mostly higher in pre-Christmas trade with soymeal once again leading the soy complex higher, though huge soyoil export sales supported that market. Corn and soybean futures both held onto yesterday’s technical gains, and the strong close on the weekly charts suggests next wee...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Lower Omicron Fears Boost Markets; Soybeans Break $13; Corn Tests $6

Receding concerns about another round of economic lockdowns from the Omicron COVID-19 variant sent macro-markets and the CBOT higher on Tuesday. News broke that President Biden will make an announcement regarding the federal government’s plan for dealing with Omicron, but economic lockdow...

soy-oilseeds

Which Way Chile; Green Excuse

Which Way Chile Analysts are pondering the future of Chile now that it has elected socialist Gabriel Boric as its next president. Boric campaigned to end neoliberal economic policies. Chile suffers from inequality but not as severe as the rest of Latin America. In fact, Chile leads the region i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Omicron Creates Two-Sided Trade; Lysine Shortage Fuels Soymeal Rally; Bullish World Weather

Fresh concerns about the global Omicron coronavirus variant sent energy and macro-markets sharply lower on Monday, and the “risk off” mentality carried over into CBOT trade as well. Corn and wheat both posted large losses near mid-day but rallied to settle with either minor losses o...

softs

Perk up Attention

Exports point to climate change as the cause of the plateauing in global crop production but no where is it more apparent than in coffee production. Brazil is responsible for 40 percent of global coffee production and around 31 percent of global trade. This year, Brazil’s coffee exports w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Export Quota Update Finally, the Argentine government implemented a so-called “new” system to control wheat and corn exports. The “new” system is, of course, aimed at preventing domestic shortages with the final objective of controlling inflation, which now exceeds 50 pe...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Test Resistance; South American Weather Threatens

The CBOT traded a mostly higher day with corn and soybeans pushing closer to major resistance at $6.00 and $13.00, respectively. Funds were net buyers and a handful of buy-stops were triggered in both the corn and soybean markets as futures passed technically significant levels. Wheat futures w...

Russian Ultimatum; Cynical Tax Break

Russian Ultimatum Russian President Vladmimir Putin just provoked the transatlantic strategy on managing his country’s possible aggression in Eastern Europe. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov delivered the message that NATO is to stay out of the former Soviet bloc countries and that...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseeds Situation – Mixed Outlook

Supply While the global supply of oilseeds and products is tight, it could get tighter or looser. The least likely factor to reduce demand and thus loosen supply constraints is Omicron. While pandemic specialists are still trying to figure out the direction of this version of the bug, markets h...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Confidence in the Pits

The market appeared to be half asleep at the start of today’s session. Corn and wheat were up relatively modestly for a while until wheat shot up to the double digit gains it would hold for the day and corn concurrently found a nickel that it would not give up. Some of it might have been...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soymeal Surges, Supports Soybeans; Corn Back Above $5.90; Cattle, Hogs Trade Lower

The CBOT largely reversed course from Monday’s trade with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all turning higher while wheat settled lower and soyoil extended its selloff. The soy complex is increasingly interesting due to the products, where soyoil is collapsing under weak technical trade and po...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: South American Rains Soak Soybeans; Wheat Firms while Cattle Post Bullish Day

The CBOT traded a mixed day with weekend rains in South America creating pronounced risk-off selling in soybean futures. The market will have to see how long the rain-induced selloff will last, however, as the coming forecast is quite different than the past weekend’s good conditions. Soy...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Losses; Corn, Soyoil Strengthen; Hogs Rally on ASF News

The CBOT was mostly lower in low-volume, pre-holiday trade. Monday is a holiday in the U.S. and the CBOT/CME (and WPI’s offices) will be closed. Notable developments for the day were the turnaround in corn and soyoil futures, which were juxtaposed against the continued technical weakness...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Guessing La Niña

This year’s La Niña event has been categorized as historically a moderate one. The rains coming to parts of South America this weekend attest to it not being a historically strong event. However, this makes guessing its final impact on crops more challenging to assess. Another chal...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseeds Situation Update

Most of the current changes are on the supply side of the ledger. This week’s USDA WASDE has come and gone but its effects linger. The agency’s 7 percent increase in U.S. surplus soybeans stocks held more sway than its reduction in global carryover down to 95 MMT from the December e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Definitively Lower

The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...

FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 13 January)

Ocean Freight Comments - 13 January 2022 By Jay O'Neil Commodity Consulting Last week we wondered which shipping sector, the Capesize or Panamax, was taking the lead in market direction. This week it has become clear that it was the Capesize sector, which had another bad week as it continued it...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: WASDE Cuts S. American Crops, Raises U.S. Carry-Out; Report Whipsaws Soybeans

Today’s CBOT trade was all about the WASDE with markets trading quietly lower before the report’s noon ET release. The report, while mostly in-line with expectations, elicited a swift, selloff reaction from the markets after its release, as the USDA increased ending stocks for all t...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean meal price is projected at $375 per short ton, up 45 dollars...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 10 million bushels to 350 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $12.60 per bushel, up 50 cents...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 47 million bushels to 1,540 million. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. ...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 628 million.  The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.15. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Firmer Heading into WASDE; Cattle Rally from Technical Support

The CBOT turned higher on the last day of pre-WASDE trading as continued short covering in wheat and a bullish response to CONAB’s new production data drove the markets. Funds are long corn and soybeans heading into the USDA’s January WASDE report tomorrow and have been actively cov...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spreads Reversed Ahead of WASDE; Livestock Futures Sharply Lower

CBTO trade on Monday was all about positioning for Wednesday’s WASDE report from USDA. Traders took out some of the weather premium that was bid into soybean and corn futures while they unwound long soy/corn versus wheat spreads. Position squaring and spread trade was dominant today with...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Wheat/Corn Trust The Argentine government is being creative in trying to control inflation rates. They are trying to control local wheat and corn prices by creating a “trust fund” for domestic market consumption. Exporters will have to contribute about $150 million...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rally on Technical and Index Fund Buying; Wheat Posts Chart Reversal

The CBOT turned higher heading into the weekend with soybeans and soymeal posting big rallies near mid-day. Soybeans and soymeal pushed above technical resistance and uncovered a wealth of buy-stops that carried the markets higher into the close. Market chatter suggests index funds started thei...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Situation Update

As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. The CFTC reports that speculators increased their net long positions in soybeans in the week to 4 January by 5,140 contracts to a total of 85,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Topsy Turvey

Corn and cattle opened down but settled up; soyoil opened up but closed down with the rest of the complex; and wheat never saw the light of day. The rationale for the doldrums at the open was news of a March increase in the Federal Funds rate. That would reduce liquidity and inflation, starving...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: March Soybeans Falter at $14.00; Corn, Wheat Lower Amid Fund Selling

The CBOT traded a mixed day with wheat and corn futures posting losses on moderate fund selling and buyers’ more cautious approach amid increased volatility. The soy complex, however, posted another day of strong gains with soyoil becoming the upside leader on a technically bullish day. S...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Boisterous Day

The second trading day of the new year started modestly enough. Corn and soybeans were up a nickel, soymeal was in the hole. Then with a burst of volume corn quickly moved into double digit gains with soybeans subsequently bumped much higher. Wheat was more moderate with SRW even turning negati...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans Rally on Brazil Yield Risk; Corn, Wheat Lower on Technical Selling

The CBOT started the week on a strong note with continued drought forecast across South America offering support Sunday night. March soybeans ended the overnight session up 8¾ cents after trading as much as 22 cents higher while corn futures firmed 4¼ cents heading into the mornin...

feed-grains

WASDE Adjustments to South America

La Niña events are not infrequent and should provide some level of predictability. However, there is wide variability in each event, seed genetics consistently improve and so does crop forecasting capability. In the past three La Niña years between USDA’s December WASDE fore...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat In the last two weeks, amid drought and sunny, warm weather, Argentina’s wheat harvest moved fast and reached almost 90 percent of the planted area. The crop is still estimated between 21.5 to 22 MMT and could increase if yields in the south exceed their average volume.  Since...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Profit Taking, Brazil Rains Weigh on CBOT

The CBOT came under pressure Thursday from a combination of end-of-year profit taking and rains that are pushing into southern Brazil. Traders were eager to book profits in ag commodities after their Christmas-time rally with only two trading days left in the year. Commodities have been excelle...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soyoil Rallies on Huge Export Sales; Corn, Soybeans Hold Technical Gains

The CBOT was mostly higher in pre-Christmas trade with soymeal once again leading the soy complex higher, though huge soyoil export sales supported that market. Corn and soybean futures both held onto yesterday’s technical gains, and the strong close on the weekly charts suggests next wee...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Lower Omicron Fears Boost Markets; Soybeans Break $13; Corn Tests $6

Receding concerns about another round of economic lockdowns from the Omicron COVID-19 variant sent macro-markets and the CBOT higher on Tuesday. News broke that President Biden will make an announcement regarding the federal government’s plan for dealing with Omicron, but economic lockdow...

soy-oilseeds

Which Way Chile; Green Excuse

Which Way Chile Analysts are pondering the future of Chile now that it has elected socialist Gabriel Boric as its next president. Boric campaigned to end neoliberal economic policies. Chile suffers from inequality but not as severe as the rest of Latin America. In fact, Chile leads the region i...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Omicron Creates Two-Sided Trade; Lysine Shortage Fuels Soymeal Rally; Bullish World Weather

Fresh concerns about the global Omicron coronavirus variant sent energy and macro-markets sharply lower on Monday, and the “risk off” mentality carried over into CBOT trade as well. Corn and wheat both posted large losses near mid-day but rallied to settle with either minor losses o...

softs

Perk up Attention

Exports point to climate change as the cause of the plateauing in global crop production but no where is it more apparent than in coffee production. Brazil is responsible for 40 percent of global coffee production and around 31 percent of global trade. This year, Brazil’s coffee exports w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Export Quota Update Finally, the Argentine government implemented a so-called “new” system to control wheat and corn exports. The “new” system is, of course, aimed at preventing domestic shortages with the final objective of controlling inflation, which now exceeds 50 pe...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Test Resistance; South American Weather Threatens

The CBOT traded a mostly higher day with corn and soybeans pushing closer to major resistance at $6.00 and $13.00, respectively. Funds were net buyers and a handful of buy-stops were triggered in both the corn and soybean markets as futures passed technically significant levels. Wheat futures w...

Russian Ultimatum; Cynical Tax Break

Russian Ultimatum Russian President Vladmimir Putin just provoked the transatlantic strategy on managing his country’s possible aggression in Eastern Europe. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov delivered the message that NATO is to stay out of the former Soviet bloc countries and that...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseeds Situation – Mixed Outlook

Supply While the global supply of oilseeds and products is tight, it could get tighter or looser. The least likely factor to reduce demand and thus loosen supply constraints is Omicron. While pandemic specialists are still trying to figure out the direction of this version of the bug, markets h...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Confidence in the Pits

The market appeared to be half asleep at the start of today’s session. Corn and wheat were up relatively modestly for a while until wheat shot up to the double digit gains it would hold for the day and corn concurrently found a nickel that it would not give up. Some of it might have been...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soymeal Surges, Supports Soybeans; Corn Back Above $5.90; Cattle, Hogs Trade Lower

The CBOT largely reversed course from Monday’s trade with corn, soybeans, and soymeal all turning higher while wheat settled lower and soyoil extended its selloff. The soy complex is increasingly interesting due to the products, where soyoil is collapsing under weak technical trade and po...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: South American Rains Soak Soybeans; Wheat Firms while Cattle Post Bullish Day

The CBOT traded a mixed day with weekend rains in South America creating pronounced risk-off selling in soybean futures. The market will have to see how long the rain-induced selloff will last, however, as the coming forecast is quite different than the past weekend’s good conditions. Soy...

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