Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Market Commentary: Some Reversals, Some Not
Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat remains on a tear with a fifth trading session closing higher. The mood around wheat sees supply concerns developing in North America and in t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may leave Russia without proper genetics for this spring’s planting campaign. While small grains are available due to long term domestic see...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 22 April)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Early-morning frosts were reported across Poland down to France as crops are reaching growth stages that are sensitive to cold. It’s too early to say whether the cold snap will dent yields, but the 2024 crop continues to face weather challenges. Tunisia pur...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat from the 2024/25 campaign remains a topic of discussion in Argentina, with conflicting views regarding the area to be sown. The reality of the situation is that wheat production margins have been improving in recent weeks due to the improvements in futures prices, but also due...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains to Close Week; Wheat Firms on Bullish News
The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supportive development in the IGC’s lower 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast, dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains, and smaller Russian 2024...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Based on futures’ price action late last week and early this week, one would be expecting funds to have been net sellers in the major ag commodities, and that’s exactly what happened. Funds expanded their short soybean position by some 30,000 contracts, making it a new five-year low...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.505/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $343.2/short ton, up $5.8 fro...
Oilseed Highlights: Still Softly Descending
The Market Soybeans sharply rebounded on Friday after hitting a one month low the day before, likely on short covering. For the week, May soybeans lost 16.25 cents (-2 percent) and November soybeans gave up 15.25 cents. The latter new crop contract still carries an 11 cent premium over the soon...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 5-11, 2024 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 93,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 487,800 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week, but unchanged fro...
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall while Oilseeds Gain; Oil Falls on U.S. Stocks, Chinese Economy
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures dropping amid fund selling due to a stronger U.S. dollar and easing Russian FOB offers while corn drifted lower in lackluster, low-volume trade. While the grains were on the defensive, the soy complex found some support from technically related...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.495/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338.7/short ton, up $3.4 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.45/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.3/short ton, down $3.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Due to the Ramadan Eid El Fitr holidays ending, there is no grain news or information from the MENA region this week. SOUTHERN/EASTERN/WESTERN AFRICA Ghana’s government faces serious criticism f...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Stronger Dollar, Technical Trade; NOPA Crush Sets Record
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with a rising U.S. dollar and favorable weather for the U.S. and South America pressuring values. Some jitters over the weekend developments in the Middle East also kept markets on the defensive, though crude oil prices slipped lower despite the incre...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.5825/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, down $...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
Market Commentary: Grains Shake off WASDE Blues on Weather Concerns; Livestock Futures Collapse Again
Trade in ag futures saw greatly diverging trends on Friday with the grains and oilseeds markets strengthening after Thursday’s relatively bearish WASDE report while livestock markets collapsed further. The grain market saw support from more news of large U.S. soybean export sales –...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.355/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.56/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.74/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $344.4/short ton, up $8.8 from y...
Oilseed Highlights: Sideways but with Potential
The Market After dropping lower during the first four trading sessions of this week, May soybeans closed up on Friday by nearly 15 cents. However, that only paired part of the losses for the week and the contract’s net for the week was a decline of 0.9 percent. May soyoil also took a loss...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 29 to April 4, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 80,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 626,800 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 21 percent from th...
Market Commentary: Small But Bearish Changes
When you see a bear, start backward charging, and that is what corn, beans, and wheat did today. The Board was under pressure ahead of the release of USDA’S April WASDE report and while few changes were expected in the report, and few were made, the ones announced reinforced the bearish t...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.5925/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.6/short ton, up $4...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on Weather Concerns; Inflation Data Sinks Livestock Futures
The CBOT was mixed on the last full trading day before the April WASDE with the corn and wheat markets seeing support and ending higher, while the soy complex retreated, and the livestock sector collapsed on inflation-induced demand concerns. The catalyst for the day’s strength in corn wa...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.585/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.6475/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $330.9/short ton, down $4.7...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 April 2024 The government has realized that taxing exportable wheat and barley at a high rate was not a good idea, especially with wheat stocks pushing the roof. Possibly the news about softer duties will improve prices for small grains. Corn duty is symbolic an...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Positioning, Crop Conditions, Weather Forecasts Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with traders increasingly focused on preparing for Thursday’s WASDE report amid little fresh news. Declining crude oil prices pulled the soy complex lower as did slight upward revisions from private firms for the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.745/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.6/short ton, down $0...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Muslim countries will celebrate the Eid-al-Fitr period as Ramadan ends this week. Most countries will see the holy month of Ramadan end on 9 April or 10 with the Eid holidays for several days after. Businesses, ba...
Market Commentary: Soy Fades on Palm Oil Pullback; Grains Firm while Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with traders mostly content to adjust positions heading into Thursday’s WASDE report. Corn and wheat futures saw strength with the latter leading the way on concerning weather trends in the U.S. and Europe. Conversely, pullbacks in palm oil and c...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.355/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6575/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $336/short ton, up $2.9 fro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There is much talk about Argentina’s new wheat campaign outlook that mostly centers on the uncertainty regarding planted area. The consensus right now, however, is that the 2024/25 area will decrease from the prior year. Seed and input sales for planting are lagging last year’...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Tunisia purchased 75 KMT of soft wheat at prices of $233.25-329.90/MT C&F along with 50 KMT of hard wheat at $383.93-384.48/MT C&F for May delivery. Jordan purchased 60 KMT of feed barley from an unspecified origin at $232.95/MT C&F. Morocco plans to...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads Week-Ending Rally; Cattle Collapse Again; Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly higher on Friday with wheat futures leading the way on the heels of a rally in Paris wheat and concerning weather developments for the Northern Hemisphere wheat crops. The soy complex was firmer as well, primarily due to a soyoil rally that found its motivation in the new co...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6725/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.85/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.1/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Sunflower Acres at Record Low, Other Minor Crops Expanding
The war in the Ukraine has now entered year three, after initial predictions in February 2022 that it would last two weeks. As a general rule of thumb, the war has caused more anxiety over ag trade than actual disruptions. A good proxy for looking at what has happened is the trade i...
Oilseed Highlights: Week of Mixed Inputs
The Market On the one hand, soyoil rallied this week due to rising crude oil prices, and despite weakness in palm oil. The May soyoil contract added almost a penny or 1.9 percent. Soyoil has managed advances in five of the past six trading sessions. By contrast, this was a week in which soymeal...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 22-28, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 16,100 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 95 percent from the previous week and 89 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 517,800 MT were up 27 percent from the previous week and from the prior...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.5/short ton, up $3.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Overnight and Vegoils Extend Rally
The CBOT started the overnight session on a strong note with solid volume and most markets heading into the green. Fresh fundamental news was light and it seems most of the day’s trade was due to short covering, spillover support from the vegoil and crude oil markets, and light commercial...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.56/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $330/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 March 2024 Last week, the Russian domestic grain market was volatile. Most of the grains were recovering following global trends and demand in the export zone of Russia. However, even with zero duty which lasted only one week, feed corn continued losing ground...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risks Sink CBOT, Macro Markets
The CBOT and broader financial/macroeconomic markets reflected uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks on Tuesday with traders adopting a strong “risk off” mentality. Rising tensions in the Middle East with Iran and Israel’s proxy fight threatening to dissolve into an open w...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.74/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $328.3/short ton, down $5.1 from yesterda...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply expects to receive 3.5 MMT of local wheat during the 2024 harvest that begins in April. In 2023, about 4 MMT was received by the government. Egypt has increased the purchase price...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.36/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.87/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.2/short ton, down $0.2 from...
Market Commentary: Some Reversals, Some Not
Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat remains on a tear with a fifth trading session closing higher. The mood around wheat sees supply concerns developing in North America and in t...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 15–19 April 2024 International sanctions and reverse measures Russia adopted towards “unfriendly” countries may leave Russia without proper genetics for this spring’s planting campaign. While small grains are available due to long term domestic see...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Rally; Funds Cover Shorts Amid Widespread Futures Strength
The spring 2024 wheat rally continues as weather threats linger for the U.S., Europe, and the Black Sea. Weather forecasts that offer a challenging outlook for the 2024/25 Northern Hemisphere crop are forcing funds to keep exiting short positions, with the resulting positive technical developme...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Iran, Bangladesh, and the UAE were major destinations for Indian soymeal exports in March 2024, representing 78 percent of exports – Bangladesh 33,000 MT, Iran 88,000 MT, and UAE 18,000 MT. Iran imported 429...
Market Commentary: Global Wheat, Oilseed Futures Rally on Weather Threats
Friday’s strength in CBOT and broader global ag commodity futures was simply a foreshadowing of the rallies that would develop on Monday. Heading into the weekend, markets were jittery on perceived weather risks, many of which turned out to be prescient. Over the weekend, parts of the U.S...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 22 April)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Early-morning frosts were reported across Poland down to France as crops are reaching growth stages that are sensitive to cold. It’s too early to say whether the cold snap will dent yields, but the 2024 crop continues to face weather challenges. Tunisia pur...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat from the 2024/25 campaign remains a topic of discussion in Argentina, with conflicting views regarding the area to be sown. The reality of the situation is that wheat production margins have been improving in recent weeks due to the improvements in futures prices, but also due...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains to Close Week; Wheat Firms on Bullish News
The CBOT was mostly higher to end a mostly bearish week with wheat leading the way on several mildly bullish developments. Wheat futures saw price-supportive development in the IGC’s lower 2024/25 global ending stocks forecast, dryness in the U.S. Southern Plains, and smaller Russian 2024...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Based on futures’ price action late last week and early this week, one would be expecting funds to have been net sellers in the major ag commodities, and that’s exactly what happened. Funds expanded their short soybean position by some 30,000 contracts, making it a new five-year low...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.335/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.6675/bushel, up $0.1375 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.505/bushel, up $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $343.2/short ton, up $5.8 fro...
Oilseed Highlights: Still Softly Descending
The Market Soybeans sharply rebounded on Friday after hitting a one month low the day before, likely on short covering. For the week, May soybeans lost 16.25 cents (-2 percent) and November soybeans gave up 15.25 cents. The latter new crop contract still carries an 11 cent premium over the soon...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 5-11, 2024 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 93,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 487,800 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week, but unchanged fro...
Market Commentary: Looking for Market Movers
The bearishness continues as South America crops loom and Northern Hemisphere weather is stable. The impending flood of Argentine soymeal and soyoil onto the market sent the May soyoil contract to a new low. There was nothing in today’s weekly USDA Export Sales report to alter the...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2675/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.53/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.3425/bushel, down $0.1525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338/short ton, down $0.7...
Market Commentary: Grains Fall while Oilseeds Gain; Oil Falls on U.S. Stocks, Chinese Economy
The CBOT was mixed on Wednesday with wheat futures dropping amid fund selling due to a stronger U.S. dollar and easing Russian FOB offers while corn drifted lower in lackluster, low-volume trade. While the grains were on the defensive, the soy complex found some support from technically related...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3025/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.37/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.495/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338.7/short ton, up $3.4 f...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 8–12 April 2024 During the first week of April, the Russian domestic grain market remained quite volatile but predominantly stable and bearish. The exception was milling wheat going for export which triggered price improvements in the ports against a weaker RUB and...
Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Fall on Planting Progress, Weather; NOPA Report Sinks Soyoil
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with broadly favorable weather in the U.S. and South America allowing timely planting and harvesting, respectively, of summer crops. Monday’s Crop Progress report from USDA indicated that U.S. farmers are making solid gains seeding the 2024 crops with...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4975/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.45/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.3/short ton, down $3.2...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Regional Updates Due to the Ramadan Eid El Fitr holidays ending, there is no grain news or information from the MENA region this week. SOUTHERN/EASTERN/WESTERN AFRICA Ghana’s government faces serious criticism f...
Market Commentary: CBOT Falls on Stronger Dollar, Technical Trade; NOPA Crush Sets Record
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with a rising U.S. dollar and favorable weather for the U.S. and South America pressuring values. Some jitters over the weekend developments in the Middle East also kept markets on the defensive, though crude oil prices slipped lower despite the incre...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.315/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.5825/bushel, down $0.1575 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $338.5/short ton, down $...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
Market Commentary: Grains Shake off WASDE Blues on Weather Concerns; Livestock Futures Collapse Again
Trade in ag futures saw greatly diverging trends on Friday with the grains and oilseeds markets strengthening after Thursday’s relatively bearish WASDE report while livestock markets collapsed further. The grain market saw support from more news of large U.S. soybean export sales –...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.355/bushel, up $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.56/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.74/bushel, up $0.1475 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $344.4/short ton, up $8.8 from y...
Oilseed Highlights: Sideways but with Potential
The Market After dropping lower during the first four trading sessions of this week, May soybeans closed up on Friday by nearly 15 cents. However, that only paired part of the losses for the week and the contract’s net for the week was a decline of 0.9 percent. May soyoil also took a loss...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 29 to April 4, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 80,700 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 626,800 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 21 percent from th...
Market Commentary: Small But Bearish Changes
When you see a bear, start backward charging, and that is what corn, beans, and wheat did today. The Board was under pressure ahead of the release of USDA’S April WASDE report and while few changes were expected in the report, and few were made, the ones announced reinforced the bearish t...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.2875/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5175/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.5925/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.6/short ton, up $4...
Market Commentary: Wheat Gains on Weather Concerns; Inflation Data Sinks Livestock Futures
The CBOT was mixed on the last full trading day before the April WASDE with the corn and wheat markets seeing support and ending higher, while the soy complex retreated, and the livestock sector collapsed on inflation-induced demand concerns. The catalyst for the day’s strength in corn wa...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.585/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.6475/bushel, down $0.0975 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $330.9/short ton, down $4.7...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 April 2024 The government has realized that taxing exportable wheat and barley at a high rate was not a good idea, especially with wheat stocks pushing the roof. Possibly the news about softer duties will improve prices for small grains. Corn duty is symbolic an...
Market Commentary: Pre-WASDE Positioning, Crop Conditions, Weather Forecasts Pressure CBOT
The CBOT was mostly lower on Tuesday with traders increasingly focused on preparing for Thursday’s WASDE report amid little fresh news. Declining crude oil prices pulled the soy complex lower as did slight upward revisions from private firms for the Brazilian and Argentine soybean crops...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3125/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5775/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.745/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $335.6/short ton, down $0...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Muslim countries will celebrate the Eid-al-Fitr period as Ramadan ends this week. Most countries will see the holy month of Ramadan end on 9 April or 10 with the Eid holidays for several days after. Businesses, ba...
Market Commentary: Soy Fades on Palm Oil Pullback; Grains Firm while Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with traders mostly content to adjust positions heading into Thursday’s WASDE report. Corn and wheat futures saw strength with the latter leading the way on concerning weather trends in the U.S. and Europe. Conversely, pullbacks in palm oil and c...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.355/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6575/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.815/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $336/short ton, up $2.9 fro...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat There is much talk about Argentina’s new wheat campaign outlook that mostly centers on the uncertainty regarding planted area. The consensus right now, however, is that the 2024/25 area will decrease from the prior year. Seed and input sales for planting are lagging last year’...
European Market Analysis
Regional News Tunisia purchased 75 KMT of soft wheat at prices of $233.25-329.90/MT C&F along with 50 KMT of hard wheat at $383.93-384.48/MT C&F for May delivery. Jordan purchased 60 KMT of feed barley from an unspecified origin at $232.95/MT C&F. Morocco plans to...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Market Commentary: Wheat Leads Week-Ending Rally; Cattle Collapse Again; Hogs Hit New Highs
The CBOT was mostly higher on Friday with wheat futures leading the way on the heels of a rally in Paris wheat and concerning weather developments for the Northern Hemisphere wheat crops. The soy complex was firmer as well, primarily due to a soyoil rally that found its motivation in the new co...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3425/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.6725/bushel, up $0.11 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.85/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.1/short ton, down $0.4 from...
Sunflower Acres at Record Low, Other Minor Crops Expanding
The war in the Ukraine has now entered year three, after initial predictions in February 2022 that it would last two weeks. As a general rule of thumb, the war has caused more anxiety over ag trade than actual disruptions. A good proxy for looking at what has happened is the trade i...
Oilseed Highlights: Week of Mixed Inputs
The Market On the one hand, soyoil rallied this week due to rising crude oil prices, and despite weakness in palm oil. The May soyoil contract added almost a penny or 1.9 percent. Soyoil has managed advances in five of the past six trading sessions. By contrast, this was a week in which soymeal...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for March 22-28, 2024. Wheat: Net sales of 16,100 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 95 percent from the previous week and 89 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 517,800 MT were up 27 percent from the previous week and from the prior...
Market Commentary: Wheat and Cattle Stabilize
Overall trading volume today was modest, even low for corn, but robust for soymeal. One market influence is wetter conditions in Brazil, but the more notable developments are in beef and wheat. Livestock products rebounded today as fears earlier in the week about bird flu dampening demand appea...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3525/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5625/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.5/short ton, up $3.5 fro...
Market Commentary: Grains Gain Overnight and Vegoils Extend Rally
The CBOT started the overnight session on a strong note with solid volume and most markets heading into the green. Fresh fundamental news was light and it seems most of the day’s trade was due to short covering, spillover support from the vegoil and crude oil markets, and light commercial...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.3175/bushel, up $0.0525 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.56/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.8225/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $330/short ton, up $1.7 from...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 25–29 March 2024 Last week, the Russian domestic grain market was volatile. Most of the grains were recovering following global trends and demand in the export zone of Russia. However, even with zero duty which lasted only one week, feed corn continued losing ground...
Market Commentary: Geopolitical Risks Sink CBOT, Macro Markets
The CBOT and broader financial/macroeconomic markets reflected uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks on Tuesday with traders adopting a strong “risk off” mentality. Rising tensions in the Middle East with Iran and Israel’s proxy fight threatening to dissolve into an open w...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.4525/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.74/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $328.3/short ton, down $5.1 from yesterda...
Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis
Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA/AFRICA – MEA REGION Egypt’s Ministry of Supply expects to receive 3.5 MMT of local wheat during the 2024 harvest that begins in April. In 2023, about 4 MMT was received by the government. Egypt has increased the purchase price...
Summary of Futures
May 24 Corn closed at $4.36/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. May 24 Wheat closed at $5.5875/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soybeans closed at $11.87/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. May 24 Soymeal closed at $333.2/short ton, down $0.2 from...