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CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed funds maintaining positions in the major ag futures contract, breaking a four-week trend of significant net selling. Fund...

Market Commentary: Major Influences Yield Higher Day/Week

Markets moved higher today, with larger volumes trading in corn and winter wheat. While fundamentals remain broadly unchanged currently, there were several...

Cattle on Feed Report

USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report was released today. Total cattle on feed amounted to 11.5 million head, or 97 percent of last year. Placements w...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.305/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.295/bushel, up $0.14 from yesterday's close.  M...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for January 9-15, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 618,100 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and...

Water Wars: 2026 Edition

Water is the world’s most important commodity, but also its most underappreciated—until scarcity starts. Water scarcity runs in cycles, and rep...

Market Commentary: General Equilibrium with Weather and War

Outside markets continued their reversal higher following the rescission of President Trump’s tariff threats against Europe. Ukraine’s grain ex...

2026 Outlook: Market Home Runs Unlikely, Use Risk Management to Stay at Bat This Year

With the spring planting effort just around the corner, producers and traders are starting to get a handle on the outlook for the coming marketing year. Th...

Livestock Roundup: Cattle on Feed Preview

USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for January will be released tomorrow. Analysts’ pre-report consensus estimates are for the total inventor...

Transportation and Export Report - January 22, 2026

WPI is pleased to release the third week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specia...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.24/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. ...

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins improved for a second consecutive week but remained firmly negative. Margins rose $70/head to –$179 as the Choice cutout advanced...

Market Commentary: Divergent Day Highlights Divergent Outlook

The CBOT started Wednesday’s overnight trade on a high note with traders returning from the prior day’s risk-off selling and finding support fr...

GI Chimera; Catch Bees with Honey; AI My Eye

GI Chimera The EU-Mercosur trade agreement has hit another stumbling block after the European Parliament asked the EU’s high court to first assess th...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2175/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0775/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.&n...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 January, 2026 The Russian grains market is slowly but steadily emerging from the extended holiday period. Extreme cold w...

Transportation Perspectives - 21 January

WPI is pleased to release the third week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specia...

Greenland Tweets Sink Macroeconomic Markets, CBOT and Ags Follow

The CBOT started off in risk-off mode Tuesday as rising U.S./EU tensions and odd dynamics in global macroeconomic markets (the rally in Japanese bond yield...

China Market Analysis

Economy and Diet The decline in China’s population, with the birthrate falling 17 percent to its lowest since 1949, is likely having some impact on t...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iraq is reported to be facing the “driest year in modern history” due to droug...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1025/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.&...

Greenland: More Tariffs on 1 February

Greenland is heating up in the latest news, and not due to global warming, but rather rising security concerns. President Trump said of Greenland, the semi...

European Market Analysis

Regional News In the first two weeks of 2026, 10 countries in the EU reported a combined total of 42 outbreaks of the H5N1 bird flu virus in commercial pou...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed the effects of USDA’s bearish January WADSE as managed money traders expanded short positions across the ag space f...

Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday

U.S. financial markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, 19 January. As a result, WPI’s offices will be closed, a...

Market Commentary: Some Rebound from WASDE Lows

By today’s close, losses in soybeans and wheat were down to fractions but corn could not fight its way back from USDA’s surprise bigger supply...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2475/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...

Government Funding Update: ICE Policy Risks

This past fall the U.S. government was shutdown for the longest period in history, with a temporary reprieve reached to re-open the government until the en...

Cattle Inventory Expectations: Beef and Dairy Expansion

With the USDA’s semi-annual Cattle Inventory report just two weeks away now, many in the industry are sharpening their pencils to forecast what the i...

Transportation and Export Report - January 15, 2026

WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Ja...

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins rebounded modestly last week but remained deeply negative. Margins improved $60/head to –$249 as the Choice cutout rose $14/cwt w...

Livestock Round Up: Tariff Impacts on Beef Supply

While President Trump has stuck to the storyline that tariffs are an economic boost for the U.S., one sector in particular shows a different story: beef. A...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.2025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close.&n...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for January 2 - 8, 2026. Wheat: Net sales of 156,300 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 32 percent from the previous week, b...

Market Commentary: Strong Grain Demand, Technical Factors Stabilize CBOT

The CBOT finally saw bulls emerge after the past two days of selling as technical factors and strong corn and soybean demand supported positive sentiments...

Trump’s Rhetoric; Ag Fear; Ag Trade Future

Trump’s Rhetoric The timing for release of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on President Trump’s tariffs has been speculated by the medi...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.22/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.  M...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 January 2026 The first week of January is typically quiet for trading and logistics as Russia observes Orthodox Christmas...

Transportation Perspectives - 14 January

WPI is pleased to the second week of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight specialist Ja...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.1975/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close...

China Market Analysis

Beef China’s new import safeguard on beef continues to stir the market. Its largest impact is on the biggest supplier of protein, Brazil. Suppliers i...

WASDE Livestock

USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released yesterday, the first of the year. Beef production is still down comp...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

London based GAFTA – Grain and Feed Trade Association – advises that in 2024/25 they had 314 new mainly grain arbitrations and 43 appeals. 170...

Market Commentary: Yield, Acreage Increases Sink Corn, Soybeans

The CBOT came under heavy selling pressure following the January WASDE as USDA unexpectedly increased U.S. corn acreage and yields. The USDA also added are...

WASDE Corn - Jan 2026

USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. corn is for larger production and higher feed residual usage to result in greater ending stocks: Corn production...

WASDE Wheat - Jan 2026

USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. wheat left exports unchanged at 900 million bushels. Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million b...

India Holds Out; USMCA Friction; AI and Ag

India Holds Out The most disappointed of U.S. trading partners has to be India. It has long held hope that it would succeed China as the largest foreign su...

WASDE Soybeans - Jan 2026

USDA’s Jan estimate for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans is increased by 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025/26...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

CORN Corn planting progress has reached nearly 90 percent of projected area. Almost 70 percent of the corn crops is going through the critical growth stage...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.215/bushel, down $0.2425 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1125/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&n...

Venezuela Oil Situation and Oil Price Impacts

The world woke up on 3 January to news of the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the self-proclaimed president of Venezuela. Few expected this move from the U.S. ad...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4575/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1725/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close...

Market Commentary: Holding Breath for Monday’s WASDE

As expected, it was a lower volume trading day ahead of likely market moving USDA reports on Monday. The exceptions were HRS and lean hogs. There were also...

New World Screw Worm: A Threat to Dairy?

The dairy industry continues to evolve, though it is facing new challenges. Through September, milk production is up 97 pounds per head in 2025 over 2024 a...

Where is the Hog Market Headed? Rosy Early Outlook for 2026.

Lean hog futures saw an unexpected rally to conclude 2025 with the market rebounding from an autumn selloff. The rebound was sufficiently strong to push de...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for December 26, 2025 – January 1, 2026.  Wheat: Net sales of 118,700 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 24 perce...

Market Commentary: Mixed Volume, Mixed Outcomes

Agricultural futures were mixed today with generally higher volume except in soybeans and corn. Traders were cautious not to get out ahead of their skis gi...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.46/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close.  Mar...

Livestock Round Up: 2025 Dietary Guidelines, Meat is Back

The USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently released the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). The headline developments...

Oilseed Highlights: Oilseed Demand Slumps while Vegoils Rise

The Market  With just two days left before the January WASDE, the soy complex is trading above week-ago levels, but that fact belies the weakness that...

Transportation and Export Report - 7 January

WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight spec...

Policy Potpourri

Meat Can’t Be Beat: As if the protein craze needed any help, the Trump Administration’s new Dietary Guidelines for Americans urges consumers to...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.18/bushel, up $0.075 from yesterday's close. ...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Market: 29 December 2025–02 January 2026 Russia’s grain market remained bearish during the final week of December, with most fun...

Transportation Perspectives - 7 January

WPI is pleased to announce the acquisition of the Transportation and Export Report, a weekly industry publication previously produced by ocean freight spec...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.44/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.105/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. ...

Market Commentary: Weaker Crude Oil Sinks CBOT Despite Soybean Sales to China

The CBOT on Tuesday failed to follow Monday’s dramatic technical strength and corn, the soy complex, and wheat all settled lower for the day. A sharp...

Labeling Away Inflation

Canada initiated action more than two years ago to fight high grocery prices. The plan was hatched after then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau demanded a &ldq...

China Market Analysis

Donroe Doctrine The forced extradition of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Moduro has been variously framed to stop the flow of narcotics and obtain oil...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Morocco has established its soft wheat import rebate program for 1 January to 30 April 202...

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins deteriorated sharply again last week, plunging deeper into negative territory and reached their second lowest value back to at least 20...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Monday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space for the third straight week as technical conditions...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

WHEAT The holiday period did not slow harvest. As of 30 December 2025, wheat harvest reached 93 percent of total area. Yields above expectations led the Bu...

MAHA and 2026 USDA Regulations

USDA has announced several new rules and regulations to take effect in 2026, with several aligning with the new Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) goals.&nb...

Formalizing Protectionism; Anti-GMO Replay; Selective Analysis

Formalizing Protectionism The EU’s 27 farm ministers are headed to Brussels on Wednesday ahead of the EU’s formal signing of a trade agreement...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.445/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.125/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Ma...

Market Commentary: New Year Looks Like Old Year

Traders closed out an overall lower week with more of the same. There was a new contract low in SRW, but a late rally pushed HRW slightly into the green fo...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.375/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.065/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close.&n...

New Bridge Payments Restore Profitability

On 31 December the USDA announced the per acre payment rates for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program for producers hit by the ongoing tariffs. ...

Happy New Year!

The WPI team extends our best wishes to you and your families for a healthy and happy New Year. Thank you for your faithful readership, we are looking forw...

Market Commentary: January WASDE is the Future

The pre-holiday risk-off, profit-taking mode continued on the last trading day of 2025. Traders closed out the calendar year with the expected low-level en...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4025/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.07/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close.&...

Beef and Pork Past, Present and Future

USDA’s November slaughter data helps decode some of the outlook for 2026. There are the known knowns - cattle and hog numbers are down, weights are u...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.405/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.1075/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close...

China Market Analysis

Grain Utilization Grain market prices have been cooling of late due to the prospects of a large South American crop, but China is also cited as an influenc...

Market Commentary: South American Weather, Profit Tanking Sink CBOT

Grains and oilseeds nearly all traded lower to start the week with profit taking driving most of the action as the CBOT enters another holiday-shortened we...

Grinch Close for 2025

According to stock market statisticians, the S&P 500 stock index historically makes an average of 1.3 to 1.4 percent gains during the last five days of...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4225/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.13/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close.&nb...

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for Dec 11, 2025...

Market Commentary: Grains Give up Gains while Cattle Turn Higher on Cash Trade

The CBOT saw its typical low-volume post-Christmas trading session on Friday, but low trading volume didn’t stop the markets from making some notable...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.19/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. ...

Holiday Schedule

Financial markets will be closed on Thursday, 25 December for the Christmas holiday. As a result, there will be no Ag Perspectives report on Thursday. WPI...

Market Commentary: Exports, Conflict, Dry Weather Boost CBOT Before Holiday

The CBOT was mostly higher before the Christmas holiday with grains in the lead, though with each market seeing a different fundamental driver. Wheat futur...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.51/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.2175/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. ...

China Market Analysis

Soybean Auction Falters To make way for recent purchases of U.S.-grown soybeans, Sinograin has been auctioning state-owned reserves of soybeans imported in...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grains Market: 15–19 December 2025 Russia’s grain markets remained stable and bearish, with weak domestic and export demand limiting pr...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders paring back long positions across the ag space as technical conditions quickly deteriorated for the...

Market Commentary: The Tempo not the Quantum

Everyone knows the volume traded this week will be lower, but there is no break in the directional adjustments. The corn market still had to continue its m...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.475/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.17/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close.  J...

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

USDA released its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report today. The inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 December was 75.5 million head, up 1 percent from December...

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine’s Odesa Black Sea port infrastructure on 23 December reportedly damaged a vessel carryin...

Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis

Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Safaga port, south on the Red Sea, will be expanded and improved as a result...

Livestock Industry Margins

Beef packer margins deteriorated further last week, extending their move into negative territory after early December’s strong profits. Margins fell...

Market Commentary: CBOT Bounces on Short-Covering and Positive Export Data

The CBOT turned higher on Monday with positive export data from USDA and a healthy dose of bottom-picking and pre-holiday short covering driving the upside...

Cattle on Feed for Dec 2025

USDA reports U.S. Cattle on Feed down 2 percent in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head to total 11.7 million head on December 1, 2025.  Place...

WTO Gets Trumped; Novel Remains Unusual; Cheese Diversion

WTO Gets Trumped The WTO was thrown out back on 2 April when President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs. The tariffs totally violated U.S. obligation...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.47/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.155/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. ...

Beef Market Recap and Outlook

On 21 November, Tyson Foods, one of the largest beef packing companies in the United States, announced it will close its cattle slaughter facility in Lexin...

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity marke...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

WHEAT Harvest advanced 13.1 percent week-over-week, reaching 73 percent of total area, with yields remaining above average and above earlier expectations...

WPI Grain Transportation Report

Dry-bulk freight markets are mixed this week with pre-holiday trade driving diverging trends. The Capesize sector saw some strength, primarily in the Atlan...

Market Commentary: Volume Gives Way as Bearish Slide Moderates

There was lower volume in the grain pits today, with perhaps some stronger interest in the last few days of holiday shopping. Traders were not buying corn...

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.4375/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.0975/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close.&nb...

It’s Official, Cow-Calf Profits Hit Record for 2025

December is upon us and the fall calf run all but ended, the beef industry is finalizing its estimates of 2025 profitability and market performance. For co...

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