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Glyphosate; China Policy; Real Food

For foodies, some processed food with substitute ingredients can be bad and others can be good, depending on whether there is an agreeable social cause tha...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

A tremendous amount of interest regarding investments in Egypt's agriculture was generated at a conference held there last week. Two key development agreem...

Oilseed Highlights

While participants at this week's 9th Asia Grain Transportation Conference are generally in an upbeat mood, there have been several questions regarding the...

Market Commentary

Other than outside factors that were largely ignored, grains and the soy complex had little to trade on today other than weather. Wheat reversed from the l...

Commodities and the Canadian Election

The Canadian economy has been a winner during the commodities boom of recent years. With recent yearend figures now available, however, that appears to be...

Speculating About U.S. Crop Acreage

Analytical speculation about the amounts of acreage that will be planted to specific crops began soon after the January reports, and there are numerous fac...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Hillary on Trade; Apples; CFTC

Given the outright hostility of labor unions and angst by liberals over the impact of free trade on the U.S. economy, Democratic presidential candidates ar...

Market Commentary

Soybeans led today's push higher in the ag commodities with soybean futures gaining as much as 15-16 cents at one point. The buying was the result of anoth...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

A number of Chinese crushers have reportedly chosen to suspend operations temporarily for several reasons. Meanwhile, the average crush margin for imported...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

There are several items that have been in the news recently and are worth thinking about before the planting season starts in earnest.This is the last full...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Although old crop wheat on the Black Sea market is now offered at competitive levels versus French and German origins, demand is very difficult to find. Me...

House Ag Committee to Hold Five Hearings This Week

This week's ambitious hearing lineup adheres to what Chairman Michael Conway (R-Texas) suggested would be the committee's agenda for the year: CFTC reform,...

How Much Water Does Avoiding Beef Save?

Arguments and exaggerations regarding water use are the lifeblood of a number of issues facing livestock today from those in animal agriculture to producer...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Unseasonal precipitation across much of India is impacting many crops, particularly wheat, fruits and vegetables. In turn, that is expected to continue aff...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Wheat Outlook

We won't know what hard red spring wheat and durum acres will total until the 31 March USDA report. Opinions are mixed today with seed dealers continuing t...

Politicized Science; Costly Legislation

Rather than change the underlying offending Cargo Preference requirement, the U.S. government is proposing to pay $90 million annually to American-flagged...

Market Commentary

Markets were quiet in overnight trade, but that changed radically when the U.S. dollar collapsed and crude oil surged sharply higher. This brought across-t...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy rally completely stalled out during the day session as the U.S. dollar continued to climb back from yesterday's beating. Soybean futures...

Broiler Exports Face Trifecta of Hurdles

Three main factors are impacting U.S. broiler exports, but chicken will also have to compete domestically with dropping pork prices. However, there are a f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S. cottonseed crushing is forecast to decline in 2014/15 to the lowest level in 15 years. There are several reasons for this drop, and the situation may...

In Defense of Free Trade

The current politics of free trade are so complex that the basic issues involved sometimes get lost.One definition of free trade is that it allows me to fr...

Plain English; Cockfights; Phobic

Congressional approval of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) is at risk and the Obama White House is pulling out all of the stops. None of this will change th...

Market Commentary

The Fed's apparent reluctance to raise interest rates caused a big slide in the U.S. dollar's value in late trade, although it still is near a 12-year high...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The Brazilian soybean basis is anticipated to soon decline, and that is a potential concern for Argentine soybean producers as their position is being stea...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's grain exports via its sea ports had a slight gain last month against the results of February 2014. Turkey's imports of Ukrainian wheat, however,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Lower Demand; Self-Sufficiency; TPP Proxy

Major food exporters are counting on growth in middle class incomes in developing countries for increased future demand. However, a recent analysis suggest...

Both Ways; Not Us; Sort of

The European Commission and members of Parliament continue to debate how to handle the presence of "unauthorized" substances in organic food. It is very di...

Senate Budget Committee to Start Markup Tomorrow

Much of the Senate's budget, which will likely be released this evening or tomorrow morning before a 2:30 pm (EDT) markup, will be focused on Medicare, Med...

Weather and Other Stuff

Weather and production agriculture are inseparable. In the past, the weather market season nominally lasted until about 15 December. With the emergence of...

Oilseed Highlights

The National Association of Oilseed Processors (NOPA) yesterday announced an impressive February soybean crush volume, while the average soyoil yield was s...

Market Commentary

During overnight trade, corn futures prices were unchanged to slightly weaker in slow trade. During the day session, though, fund pressure and technical se...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The volume of Saudi Arabia's wheat imports is notably shifting as its domestic production is affected by a change in land usage. Meanwhile, maize demand is...

Weather Market Economy

The concept of a weather market is a well-subscribed orthodoxy in agriculture and a factor in energy markets. First quarter gross domestic product (GDP) da...

Lonely Days – Lonely Nights

It has been a challenging period for market analysts who must find something to write about when there really isn't much different happening. We tend to fo...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The current offer of new crop (August 2015) Russian/Ukrainian 12.5 percent protein wheat is approximately $80/MT lower than the 2014 new crop offer at the...

Bans and Influences

While 30 countries have imposed bans on the entry of U.S. poultry over the past month due to the outbreak of avian influenza in several states, many have c...

China In-Country Analysis

Based on conversations with our market sources, there are actually two companies involved in the recently reported major soybean smuggling operation in Chi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged today but were mostly lower the last half of the session. The bearish news was that truckers in Brazil did n...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

U.S. farmers must soon make their 2015 crop revenue insurance decision, and it is likely that they will take reduced coverage per acre in reaction to certa...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI's recently released Economic Survey 2014-15 strongly advocated cutting subsidies and using new technologies to address problems with the distribution s...

Currency Implications; Pesticides Residues

The U.S. dollar continues its surge in relative value, causing concern not just amongst U.S. companies but apparently in Japan as well. Anti-Trade Currency...

Updated Look at Farm Bill Spending

The dropping prices and the attractiveness of the ARC program under a more bearish market outlook have caused the CBO to update its  cost projections...

Market Commentary

The stronger U.S. dollar, talk that Ukraine was offering corn below U.S. prices and the overall selling mood in all commodities together eventually pushed...

Risk Management

Identifying risks and their source would seem to be an obvious necessity for any management plan. However, businesses sometimes incur risks that they are n...

HPAI in Arkansas Turkey Flock

USDA's APHIS has confirmed the presence of highly pathogenic H5N2 avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial turkey flock in Arkansas, located within the Missi...

Trash-Talking; Pre-TPA TPP

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack has once again invoked producers of GM and non-GM crops to reach a compromise on coexistence. However, producers of GM crops hav...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina and Brazil, the two main competitors to the U.S. in the soybean sector, have seen their currencies fall in value to the U.S. dollar. If that tren...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

About two hours after the day session opened, Chicago May wheat traded through its 20-day moving average at $5.05, and a volume of fund buy stop orders was...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading started out slowly and without price direction. However, a later surge of buy orders in wheat and corn sent prices solidly into the green...

Biofuel Industry Fractures; Kobe Slimed

At least some parts of the U.S. advanced biofuels industry are asking for congressional legislation to change the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The reques...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

It seems that U.S. and Black Sea corn became more attractive to global buyers once Argentine prices increased into the mid-50s for the March-July period. T...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

A Rusagrotrans official indicated the effective export duty for wheat will significantly influence the structure of Russia's March grain exports with barle...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in grain and soy futures was dominated by the U.S. dollar's climb to new heights, and the March WASDE released at noon (EDT) today did not...

Oilseed Highlights

Conab has dropped its estimates for Brazil's soybean crop and area planted to soybeans. However, the agency raised the domestic crush forecast because of a...

The March WASDE

The March WASDE always provides an interesting update on USDA's views about U.S. and world demand as well as its take on South American soybean and corn pr...

EU Balkanization of GMOs

The release of an extensive review of EU policy on GMOs is scheduled for later next month, and some of the pending proposals for future procedures will cau...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's ag ministry is reported to have been considering a plan to tax imported corn by as much as $65/MT. However, pressure from the poultry industry and...

Trade, Payrolls and Productivity

Imports and exports both declined steeply in January, driven by two key temporary factors. Meanwhile, like a plow horse, the progress in the labor market d...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Anticipating USDA's March WASDE

Analysts appear to be in general agreement regarding expectations for the March WASDE. The crop production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina might be more...

Selective Merchandising; Ethanol Dinged

While Robert Kenner's "Merchants of Doubt" is set to be released this Friday, the missed opportunity is to make a documentary about the merchants of small,...

Market Commentary

A stronger wheat market helped corn as did more talk that farmers are looking for ways to reduce corn costs because of low prices. Soybean and meal contrac...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU allocated 505,000 MT of wheat export licenses last week, bringing the total to 21.3 MMT versus 20.8 MMT at the same time in 2014. At the current pac...

Iowa Ag Summit

The main goal of the Iowa Ag Summit was to pin down GOP presidential candidates on their position regarding renewable fuels and the Renewable Fuel Standard...

The Silly Season of Weekly Crop Ratings

These rating numbers have become a trading game. The problem is they are simply not reliable indicators of crop yields and were really never intended to be...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Agriculture received its fair share in the Modi government's first full budget with one of the main proposals targeting the creation of a national agricult...

Crude Oil and Corn

Globally, the supply of crude oil and petroleum products is on a trend to hit a record-high 2.83 billion barrels by midyear. The question remains as to wha...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ag Review: India's Possible Transformation

India's Possible Transformation Long a protectionist, backward country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making modest changes that will alter India's agric...

Market Commentary

Talk that Ukraine was trying to double its corn exports to China in the next year plus the strong U.S. dollar brought more fund selling to corn today. Mean...

U.S. Wheat and World Demand

Two important factors that have limited U.S. wheat exports in 2014/15 have been large wheat supplies held by competing origins and the effect of the histor...

Market Commentary

It is possible for large traders to influence charts, and chart action has near-term importance. However, the soy complex currently does not have the same...

TPA Reaction; EU Complexity

Reacting to Republican criticism that President Obama was squandering his opportunity to get Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) through the Congress, the Whit...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA export sales report confirmed the continued seasonal trend in U.S. exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. Meanwhile, Brazil's wildca trucker...

End of EU Dairy Quota to Create Beef Bubble

With the EU's longstanding dairy quota  set to expire in April 2015, changes in dairy production as well as herd expansion are expected across a numbe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Doha; Biotech; Energy

 In the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations, several WTO members are apparently now receptive to dumping the "Swiss-formula" approach to agr...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's milling wheat prices rocketed again due to depreciation of the national currency (UAH). Some traders stopped buying as the UAH rate's further dev...

Market Commentary

We are in a period in the crop cycles when markets feel they have pretty well counted up available supplies, and demand becomes the dominant variable.The s...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There is some tension and uncertainty in the pricing dynamics for Paraguayan grain (corn and wheat) as farmers have refused to accept low flat prices for t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

To Label or Not to Label

One issue of great importance to agriculture is the question of whether or not there should a mandate that foods produced from GM materials be labeled as s...

Squandering TPA; AGOA Deficit

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) announced that Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation will not be introduced before April...

Market Commentary

Today's markets provided something for everyone, depending on when you looked. The corn market badly needs a story to tell, but it may not get one until th...

House Ag Review of SNAP

Many observers believe that this year's budget resolution, the first in five years if it comes to the House and Senate floors, will include reconciliation...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The USDA report on grain and feed for Israel was issued last week. As expected, it shows that the country is still almost totally dependent on grain import...

Oilseed Highlights

Argentina has begun requiring monthly reports of silage bag sales to farmers and third party venders in response to a situation that is reducing the amount...

Agriculture and White House Push for TPA

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) issued a press release on Thursday of last week that noted all the major ag and processor g...

Market Commentary

May soybeans closed right at the 50-day moving average and at or near the day's lows. The next move might be whether or not the funds try to take that out...

Non-GMO Label; Green Politics

Currently, there are privately certified non-GMO labels, but there is a lack of transparency and potential bias in their structure. U.S. soybean growers no...

Of Strikes and Other Soybean Issues

The political mood of the transportation and port industries might play a bigger role in the soybean supply and demand situation than record crop productio...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

China's soymeal exports have increased noticeably in the past months, according to recent data, and the volume of soybeans that arrived in the country duri...

Crop Revenue Update

Some producers are just starting to look at the price calculations and are stunned by the revenue coverage for 2015 crops versus the previous several years...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Appropriations Panel Reviews FSIS Budget Priorities

The FSIS budget has become one of the more delicate political issues in the past few years because of the 2011 Budget Control Act that reestablished the se...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's government revised the kharif corn production (October/November harvest) forecast from 16.07 MMT to 16.47 MMT. However, the trade and industry ther...

Market Commentary

Price changes in the soy complex today depended on how the market interpreted any news of the Brazilian truckers' strike. Wheat was inexplicably strong tod...

TPA Threatened; Food Threatened

The U.S. government's has announced a decision regarding water distribution this year to farmers in California's hyper-productive Central Valley that shoul...

Financial Regulation; TAA

While U.S. congressional leaders calculate how to reach agreement on Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), it is clear that melding U.S. and European agricultur...

Corn versus Soybeans

Although it may be an oversimplification, the annual spring planting decisions are widely viewed as a fight between corn and soybeans. However, a variety o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The soy complex ruled futures markets today, and press reports highlighting road blockages by Brazilian truckers ruled the soy complex. The corn and wheat...

Beef Prices Up on Limited Supply

According to USDA, Americans spent about 6.4 percent of their annual consumer expenditures on food in 2012. However, protein prices are rsing at a faster r...

Oilseed Highlights

While India's previous govenment began stalling the reglatory process for biotech crops in 2010, the victory of Prime Minister Modi's BJP party last year h...

Politocrats; TPA Crunch; Chocolate Hooey

If the FAO wished to accomplish food security, it would promote improved governance, land rights, the availability of inputs, credit and transparent market...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

During the next month, South American farmers will have to start considering their planting intentions for the 2015/16 season. Ther market there, though, i...

Market Commentary

Export demand for U.S. soybeans has begun to lighten as Brazilian shipments get underway, and USDA reported a sale of 120,000 MT of HRW to Egypt under the...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

As Ukraine's currency depreciates, most of the country's grain and oilseed prices have seen significant increases in the past week. Meanwhile, its MY 2014/...

The Stubborn Soybean Market

The outlook for soybeans does continue to appear fundamentally bearish. However, soy complex futures seem reluctant to acknowledge just how bearish the sit...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's tourism industry, which greatly affects the country's poultry sector, has improved since 2013. There are other factors, though, that are also impac...

Market Commentary

After yesterday's weakness, the corn market was due for a turnaround and had one for most of the session, thanks to the pull from the soybean market Genera...

No Grease for Greece; Japan’s Next Farm Minister

Greece may have obtained a four-month extension in its fight with the European Union over a budget crisis, but vacating the euro is an uncertain solution f...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Economic Report of the President: Climate Change and Ag

The report shows recent change in farm income over the past five years. For the future, it focuses heavily on the threats posed by climate change issues in...

Oilseed Highlights

While Brazil raised its biodiesel blending requirement from 6 to 7 percent effective 1 December 2014, truckers there protesting against a diesel fuel tax a...

China In-Country Analysis

A look at the dynamics that transpired in 2014 and the early part of 2015 with commentary and observations on factors shaping the way forward for this and...

The Void Zone

The big problem for markets over the next six weeks is that there will be very little in the way of fresh news to discuss, especially of the bullish variet...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Russian and Ukrainian wheat are offered significantly lower today versus two weeks ago, but they are still not competitive against French, German and Polis...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Climate; Spring Planting; Sugar; Biofuel

The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee argued last week that sugars should be reduced from the diet and taxes imposed on sugar-sweetened beverages. Now...

California Cooperatives Petition for Federal Milk Pricing

USDA received a formal hearing request from California Dairies Inc., Land O'Lakes Inc. and Dairy Farmers of America Inc. to establish a Federal Milk Market...

Market Commentary

Markets were steady to slightly firmer overnight, but that didn't last long in today's session. The soy complex is very resilient in the face of a record h...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets were slightly lower overnight in light volume. This week's pattern of one day strong and the next day weak continued today after yesterday's streng...

Dietary Guidelines

One of the key developments is that while less consumption of red and processed meats is advised, recommendations regarding lean meat are excluded.That is...

The Acreage Question

The question of what U.S. farmers will plant in 2015 is still looming very large over the markets. Most analysts have been assuming that acreage will decli...

TPA; TTIP; Antitrust

Food manufacturers that rely on major distributors to get their products to stores around the U.S. are breathing easier now that the Federal Trade Commissi...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India has announced the draft of a new health certificate that could allow the importation of frozen pork and pork products from the U.S. Currently, those...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Speculative Position Limits

Those who trade in grain and soy complex derivatives are very familiar with speculative position limits. There have been such limits in place since the 193...

Market Commentary

The market viewed USDA's soybean acreage projection as bullish. The corn acreage number was not a real surprise. Corn futures gained about 6 cents, mostly...

COOL Appeal Hearing This Week

The U.S. appeal over the WTO ruling against its country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) regulation is being heard in Geneva this week. It is likely the WTO will...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA today revealed its estimates for U.S. crop plantings in 2015 at its annual Outlook Conference. In a bit of a surprise and in contrast to many other pr...

Politicizing Nutrition

The Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee has recommended the spawning of many mayors like former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg by suggesting that...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

After yesterday's strong market, trade in soybeans and corn was rather noncommittal during the overnight session. Outside factors did not help grain and so...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine corn licenses for new crop have been issued for the time period from 15 March onward. However, early-seeded corn is presently being harvested, an...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Grain Union announced that spring planting costs will rise at least 40 percent compared to 2014 because of certain other increasing expenses. R...

The Contrary Grain Sorghum Outlook

There is good reason to devote attention to grain sorghums this year as exports have been soaring with China's huge demand and impacting prices.In USDA's m...

Drones in Agriculture

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has released its rules on the commercial use of drones. While the agriculture sector is expected by some to be on...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

A recent forecast of Turkey's grain imports indicates a noticeable change due to the effect of the winter weather on that country's wheat and barley produc...

Market Commentary

Wheat and corn prices changed only modestly, but soymeal and soybean prices were sharply higher with the strong meal market leading the way. General Commen...

Oilseed Highlights

India's soymeal exports to date have been running far below the pace of a year earlier since October for a number of reasons. However, new data indicates J...

Breadth of Ag Support

The number of Americans directly involved in food and agriculture continues to fall, but the sector still retains some influence on Capitol Hill as evidenc...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Recent chatter that cotton acres will decline by 10-15 percent this year also suggests many of those will go to corn, leaving that crop's acreage nearly un...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Presidents' Day

Monday, 16 February is a U.S. holiday. The markets and our office will all be closed that day.  Please note that the next publication date for Ag Pers...

Market Commentary

This was Friday the 13th and an impressive day, considering it came ahead of a long holiday weekend in the U.S. The only unlucky people seemed to be t...

Climate; Japan Ag; Mad Cow; Apples

Departing White House aide John Podesta attacked the Republican-led Congress for failing to address global climate change. However, the blame lies squarely...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

It's been a long and quiet week in both the markets and market-making (or breaking) news, but here are some things to keep you up at night: Do you ever wo...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

It is now hoped that India's new government will be able to  keep the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of fine cereals in check, and the states have b...

Oilseed Highlights

While the market is accounting for the pending huge Argentine soybean crop, uncertainty surrounds what farmers will do with the soybean stocks they current...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Constant Change

If there is a single common thread that ties together agricultural crops and all of the varied economic activities that are based on them, it is the consta...

Chlorine; Emissions; the Devil

Agriculture is being targeted for many ills ranging from obesity to water pollution. Now the Food and Agriculture Organization has piled on with a study cl...

Market Commentary

Trading in the grains and soy complex in both the overnight and day sessions was a low volume affair with prices visiting both sides. Meanwhile, weekly exp...

WASDE

USDA revised the forecast for total red meat and poultry production compared with the January report, based on changes in all three species.   WASDE...

Market Commentary

So far in 2014/15, the soybean futures market has been more impressed by the demand for soybeans and soymeal than by soybean supplies. However, it will pro...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While Brazilian soybeans are presently more competitive than those at the U.S. Gulf for March-May, that spread is not large. Any appreciation of the real o...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's wheat export duty that went into effect 1 February was intended to reduce export volumes and decrease domestic prices. However, neither of these g...

Devaluation Rationalized; Defining Export Subsidies

The U.S. Congress is demanding that currency manipulation be addressed, and now U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has some explaining to do. Currency Devalu...

The February WASDE

On a relative (percentage) basis, the biggest change in a U.S. grain or oilseed supply/demand estimate was for grain sorghums. However, perhaps the most cl...

Crop Insurance under the Budget Gun

More budget scrutiny is anticipated in the coming year, given the focus on deficits and reduced spending as well as the over-budget projected costs of the...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA supply and demand report included no major surprises for the soybean sector, but it was slightly positive. There were several revisions to U.S...

More on Currencies; Fundamentals

Legislation that would classify "currency manipulation" as a countervailable subsidy under U.S. trade law could cause unnecessary collateral damage. More o...

Market Commentary

Without new market-moving guidance of their own, grain and soy futures markets again came under the influence of outside factors as they so often have rece...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The deputy chairman of the Cyprus Grain Commission (CGC) resigned last week and indicated certain steps that the organization will need to implement in ord...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

2015-16 U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand is Bearish

Nearly every analysis including this one agrees on the  2015 U.S. and world soybean outlook. However, the jury is still largely out on at least one im...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The EU has allocated a higher number of wheat export licenses compared to a year ago at this time.This is not surprising, though, when considering certain...

Perfect Currency Storm; Battle of Studies

The U.S. dollar is on a long-term spike in value at the same time other economies are softening, and the timing couldn't be worse for Obama administration...

Market Commentary

Corn led markets higher with wheat struggling, and soybeans traded as much as 8-9 higher at mid-morning, although they couldn't sustain those gains. Most o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

Several factors in conjunction with the late movement by China's feed mills to stock up for the holiday season suggest that the soymeal price will be chang...

Eggs and California Lead to Interstate Commerce Bill

In the short term, California's 2008 egg-layer referendum seems to have widened the historical gap between that state's market and other parts of the count...

Junk Science: Biotech and Pesticides

EU Commissioners failed to reach agreement on approval or disapproval of a dozen pending biotech traits. The fact that politics rather than science largely...

Market Commentary

The markets started slightly lower last night but firmed as the session wore on and finished slightly higher. That trend was reversed once today's session...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Ag Review: Future Price Action and the Bell Curve

Doomed or Muddling Through Global economic and political developments present many concerns, but there are a few less stark perspectives. The Year Ahead fo...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India currently grows only one GM crop, cotton. Experts now believe that the country should look beyond cotton as GM production has a proven domestic track...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

With markets more active than would be expected for early February, there are several issues related to crops and trade  that are worth considering.Ma...

Presidential Candidates to Appear at Ag Forum in Iowa

On 7 March, an agriculture policy forum for presidential candidates is scheduled at the Iowa State fairgrounds in Des Moines. While the event is targeted t...

Ag as Poster Child; Booze Tax

Members of Congress largely representing agricultural districts may be few in number, but the sector is a poster child for what many in the body see as the...

Oilseed Highlights

South Africa's farmers have planted a record area to soybeans this year in response to strong domestic demand, which has been rising and is expected to gro...

A Sad but Inevitable Day

Advancing technology made the end of open outcry pit trading of futures inevitable, but it will still be sad to see such a historic, colorful era conclude...

Market Commentary

It has been a topsy-turvy week for grain and soy futures as well as energy markets as they react to a variety of contrary factors that pushed prices up, do...

Plummeting Pork Prices

Today's pork cutout value was the lowest since spring 2009. One reason is a drop in cases of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv), but there are also oth...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia has exported 22.7 MMT of grains as of 28 January and from the beginning of MY 2014/15, 31 percent more than during the same period in MY 2013/14. Th...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Market Trends: 26-30 January 2015During the week in review, wheat prices moved in different directions as prices for other grain crops increased (in RUB ex...

Market Commentary

Soy complex prices fell and gave back half or more of yesterday's gains as trader's recognized that supply/demand fundamentals for soybeans are as bearish...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S.–EU Debate; Ag and the Environment

U.S. and EU negotiators meeting this week on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership have plenty on the agenda. A major hurdle continues to be i...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Rather stable corn futures contracts at the CBOT of around $4.00 per bushel and present uncertainty about the ability to export are causing corn basis to w...

Budget Surprises; LDP’s TPP Plan

The Obama administration's budget once again proposes reorganizing certain government functions, but also seeks to increase funds for a few agricultural-re...

One View of the South American Soybean Outlook

Much like the U.S., Brazil produces soybeans over a huge land mass, virtually assuring that every crop has developed under a variety of weather conditions...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of Indonesian President Joko Widodo has proposed more than tripling the subsidy for biodiesel in order to expand production and help the pal...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Details on Ag Proposals in the President’s Budget

Two of the changes to USDA spending programs included in President Obama's proposed FY 2016 budget are related to the federal crop insurance program and co...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to reports from Russia, wheat cargoes to Egypt's GASC are delayed in the ports there and exporters/traders will now be liable for the new Russian...

Market Commentary

Recent increases in open interest in corn, soybeans and wheat have suggested that new noncommercial shorts had entered the market. Today's sudden rally in...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

TTIP Skepticism; Food Movement

Supposed horizontal regulatory principles are on the TTIP agenda and include an earlier U.S. proposal for handling SPS issues. However, the EU has imposed...

Crop Revenue Insurance Pricing Started Today

Farmers previously knew well in advance of the planting season that they would have big per acre revenue guarantees from the insurance program regardless o...

Market Commentary

The soy complex opened higher this morning despite overnight news that China's latest PMI number was below 50 for the first time in two-and-a-half years. E...

President Submits Budget for FY 2016

The budget was very much in line with the proposals in President Obama's State of the Union address and included a number of new tax proposals  that w...

China In-Country Analysis

On 1 February, China's central government released its annual guidelines for the domestic economy and key policy reforms, known as China's "No.1 Central Do...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukrainian corn is under heavy pressure. At current prices, it is more competitive against U.S. origin to Asia, although not by much. The last trades to Sou...

Petroleum; Europe’s Future

There is a terrific mess in Europe, and the attitude of the newly-elected Greek government that it must be granted debt relief is posing a massive challeng...

Market Commentary

Much of the world was lower on this last trading day of January. Soybean and soymeal futures were down double-digits off and on as fund liquidation and mor...

Farm Operating Loans and Livestock Loans Up on Down Market

The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank released its report on farm lending for the fourth quarter of 2014, which showed non-real estate loans are up about 50...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's 2013/14 vegetable oil imports grew by 12 percent to a record high of 11.82 MMT and are expected to rise further. GOI has raised the import duties o...

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Outlook

Those analysts with a bearish slant, probably representing the higher percentage today, will at least use a big yield estimate and are also likely to have...

Trading Ranges

The corn and wheat futures markets have clearly abandoned their trading ranges of last fall and are trying to find new ones at some lower level.There are a...

New Dairy Margin Protection Program Costs

The CBO's latest 10-year budget baseline estimates total costs of the Dairy Margin Protection Program (DMPP) have changed significantly from the April 2014...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. biodiesel industry and oilseed producer organizations are livid at the Obama administration for its announcement this week that it would facilitat...

Environment; Biotech; Biofuel; Beef and Pork

U.S. EPA is working on a plan to slow the adaptation by corn rootworms to corn that has been genetically modified to contain Bacillus thuringiensus (Bt). M...

Market Commentary

Wheat, corn and soyoil all fell to new lows for the month. The day session at least had USDA's weekly export sales report to trade on, although how much in...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The strong U.S. dollar has been one of the factors pressing on commodity prices (including grains and the soy complex) and certainly was part of the reason...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Brazil: The Year of the Soybean

Not very often do North and South America enjoy such similarly beneficial weather for spring planted crops during the same crop cycle as has been seen duri...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's Agrarian Policy and Food Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko signed a Memorandum of Understanding with grain exporters on 27 January. The parties agreed th...

Competitive Devaluation

Both Democrats and Republicans in congressional hearings this week expressed disappointment that currency manipulation policy has not been made part of the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine farmers are considering how to be strategic next season with low domestic prices and limited credit. During the past few crop cycles, they switch...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey is said to have imported as much as 200,000 MT of EU rapeseed in recent months with more expected after it rejected stocks from the Black Sea when G...

CBO Issues 10-Year Outlook on Budget and Crop Prices

The report includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law over the next 10 years. It is of course a tall order to...

Good Vibes; Obvious Outcomes

Unsurprising to those in the rice trade, Bangkok is now indicating that it will be dumping millions of tons of surplus rice onto the world market. PLC Tol...

Oilseed Highlights

The March soybean futures contract price fell by 8.75 cents/bushel today, apparently as a result of USDA reporting an exporter's cancellation of a 120,000...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Biding time seems to be the dominant strategy within grain markets. Short-term strategies to scalp limited returns are expected to influence day-to-day act...

Europe Split; New WTO Path

Without ambition, countries will use platforms other than the WTO to negotiate trade liberalization (aka Trans-Pacific Partnership, etc.). Too much ambitio...

China In-Country Analysis

China's 2014 sorghum imports increased more than fivefold to 5.78 MMT from 1.08 MMT in 2013, according to China Customs. Demand was driven in part by the i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Strategie Grains has raised its EU wheat export estimate from December by 2.1 MMT to 29.3 MMT (unchanged from last year) due to Russia's export restriction...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures were slightly lower much of the night session, but reversed that trend and traded slightly higher most of today's session. The only bullish...

Ethanol Industry Seeking E-30 under New Fuel Standards

According to the EPA, the petitioners' primary interests are to increase ethanol use and protect or improve their competitive position, which it maintains...

A Peek at Weather

The major concern isn't with 2015 crop production across the Corn Belt and northern Plains, but with what could occur in 2016 and 2017. That apprehension i...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Farm Program – the Gift That Keeps on Giving

The new farm program offers a much higher level of income protection than previously and will therefore offer a greater safeguard from an extended bear mar...

CFTC; Hemp; Sugarcoating

Who could be against industrial hemp production? After all, the U.S. consumes more hemp products than any other country, and yet it is the only major indus...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's poultry sector has exerted tremendous pressure on the government to create new rules that would prohibit imports of U.S. chicken leg quarters as th...

Oilseed Highlights

Data released by China's General Administration of Customs indicated the country imported 32,005,374 MT of soybeans from Brazil, its top supplier, in CY 20...

House Agriculture Committee’s Organizational Meeting

New Chairman Mike Conaway (R-Texas) laid out his agenda for the committee and has reorganized a number of subcommittees to better suit his announced priori...

Market Commentary

Corn had been trading unchanged to lower overnight, but the export sales numbers did bring some buying to this morning's opening.The collapse in the euro,...

Court Case Precedent on Manure Management

In a district court case decided last week in the state of Washington, a judge applied the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) to dairy manure fo...

Market Commentary

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a quantitative easing (QE) program to begin in March. What was not expected is its size. Meanwhile,...

China and Grain Sorghum Excitement

Much of grain sorghum's sudden rise in China is due to government policies, announced or not, designed to protect the price of domestic corn production.If...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Non-Tariff Barriers; Doha Nowhere

WTO Director General Roberto Azevêdo thinks that heads of delegations are going to come up with a Doha work plan by July, but the gulf remains too wide to...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Only 6,855 MT of 5th grade wheat were bought in the course of Russia's market intervention trading session on 20 January. The volume of grains available fo...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine wheat acreage has been in steady decline during the past few years due to government efforts to control domestic bread prices. This has depressed...

EU Science; ISIS Wins; Protection Up and Down

The newly sworn-in U.S. Senate voted this week to table (against) a "Buy America" requirement as part of the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline...

Market Commentary

Technically, the corn market has moved away from the upward trend that has prevailed since October and appears to be looking for a new lower trading range...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

SOTU; Ethanol; Russia; Rhetoric

It must be something about the position, because UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Director General José Graziano da Silva is now making the same...

Oilseed Highlights

While soymeal demand is down in Europe for several reasons, USDA has surprisingly increased its forecast for EU soymeal consumption in 2014/15 by 400,000 M...

President Obama to Deliver State of the Union Address

A few items likely to be covered tonight in the SOTU that are of more direct interest to agriculture are the proposed treatment of capital gains in the pre...

Market Commentary

The grains and soy complex started out this holiday-shortened week weaker across the board in overnight trade. Soybeans continued to stay that way, but cor...

Corn Market Anomaly

Noncommercial traders still retain a net long of about 244,000 contracts as of 13 January. This is a huge long position, given that the fundamental outlook...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

MENA wheat importers report that Russia is making wheat exports more difficult in advance of its new export duty set to begin 1 February. The expansion of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The important news in the soy complex today was USDA's announcement of the cancellation of 285,000 MT of U.S. soybean sales to China. No one knows if this...

Tax Reform Assigned to Senate Working Groups

The working groups are to submit their reports to the Finance Committee by May 2015. However, it will be surprising if this process moves quickly, if at al...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

A Long Week in the Markets

The week began with the Monday release of USDA's reports, which were not as bearish corn or as bullish soybeans as many had expected. Today's announcement...

Money; Cuba; TPP

Politicians and financial market players are fond of blaming one another, but they are really quite similar. Each believes they should be perpetually takin...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India's 2014/15 wheat production is expected to exceed last year's, its areas under pulses and oilseeds have been reduced. This is expected to have f...

Too Much Wheat, Too Little Demand

Large production increases and limited demand growth lead to enlarging stocks, and that is what is happening to world wheat supplies as well as those of th...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets were modestly higher overnight ahead of USDA's weekly export sales report and the National Oilseed Processor Association's (NOPA's) D...

WUS; Jones Act; BsAs

The U.S. EPA released a 408-page technical report detailing 1,200 peer-reviewed scientific studies that it believes justifies its proposed regulation of mo...

WASDE

The January WASDE, released this week, included the updated year-end 2014 estimates showing red meat production up from the December report and supported s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

Insufficient rainfall is becoming a growing concern for soybean farmers in the Brazilian states of Goias and Mato Grosso. Meteorologists say this may no lo...

Biofuel Policy; TTIP Trouble

Falling oil prices will redistribute money away from producers and to consumers, but the question is whether biofuel policy adjusts in a timely and correct...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

It was announced that  Ukraine is not going to introduce restrictions on grain exports and that the total MY 2014/15 grain export volume may reach 33...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

USDA data released on Monday confirmed that global supplies are abundant, and any prospect of South American farmers soon being rescued by escalating price...

Market Commentary

Corn futures prices tumbled about a dime on bearish technical signals and growing stocks of ethanol that will likely lead to lower production and therefore...

After the Reports, What Now?

Pondering the combined reports as a whole, we cannot escape the bottom-line feeling that their overall tone is bearish. However, there are several "passage...

Oilseed Highlights

The sharp rise in China's soybean imports for CY 2014 supports the view that hundreds of millions of Chinese are still increasing their consumption of anim...

Two Views Times Two

The European Parliament finally voted into law the right of EU member states to deny the planting of biotech crops otherwise approved for safety by the Bru...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The day session was not quiet as traders refined their collective responses to yesterday's series of reports from USDA. The results were wide trading range...

Understanding the U.S. Crude Oil Market

The boom in U.S. crude oil production has been a game changer in terms of handling and refining crude oil as well as supply. This is impacting the market a...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

The Egyptian government is discussing the reopening of government-owned dairy operations that were all but totally closed down in 2008 after years of falli...

China In-Country Analysis

With a number of Chinese processors preferring imported corn over domestic due to the former's lower price and higher quality, there are many applications...

USDA Reports Send Mixed Signals

Many analysts were expecting smaller harvested acres of corn and soybeans. We received the opposite today with an increase in both of those as well as a su...

Beaks with Teeth; Sugar Beating

The newly announced Chinese ban against imports of poultry and eggs from the U.S. due to a high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the Pacific N...

Looking At Trade: Labor Strikes and Bearish Oil Impacts

The big story in the U.S. 2014 trade balance came in two chapters with the first being the labor dispute at the West Coast ports and the second concerning...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed overnight in extremely light trading volume ahead of today's 12 pm (EST) USDA reports. The direction of the markets and the volume of tr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The market is still trying to evaluate the impact of Russia's export tax that is scheduled to be implemented 1 February, and exporters are reluctant to mak...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) has expressed the industry's concern that some mills will soon file for debt reconstruction due to difficulties p...

State Court, House and Senate Committees All Boost Keystone

Today the House of Representatives passed a bill to authorize construction of the Keystone XL pipeline just hours after the Nebraska Supreme Court upheld t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets were quietly mixed in overnight trade, and that pattern held through much of today's session as well. Traditional funds are estimated to be long 51...

USDA Report Preview

The quarterly corn stocks estimate is the one that always seems to hold unexpected news for the market. Surprises in this report will be as significant as...

Whipsawed Meat; Sinking Ship; Border Success

It is easy to focus on headline issues like the failed U.S. country-of-origin labeling (COOL) requirement, but U.S. and Mexican officials this week noted s...

Pork Production Up in 2015

Hog producers have already farrowed 3 percent more sows this past fall. The larger number of young pigs will begin to move pork production above the previo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Counterintuitive; Wrong Crop; Barriers

A Pew Research survey finds most Americans support free trade as good for the country, though only a minority believes that it creates jobs. There is a mor...

Market Commentary

The wheat market was the loss leader again with old crop contracts of Chicago and KC wheat falling 11-12 cents to the lowest level in about five weeks. The...

Looking Back, Looking Ahead

As we transition from one year to the next, it has become our habit to make some not-so-fearless forecasts for the upcoming year. With a bow to intellectua...

Oilseed Highlights

India's Solvent Extractors Association yesterday released protein export data for December 2014. The report indicated the month's soymeal exports totaled 1...

Bust; Feints; Change; Thankless

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has reportedly launched an effort to sustainably produce quinoa on the Arabian Peninsula by 2021, no doubt  attracted t...

Market Commentary

Corn futures closed down almost 9 cents, giving back almost all of Monday's entire rally. Falling ethanol production and dropping margins weighed on the ma...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine exporters are again facing the same problems they encountered during the past two seasons that resulted from selling large volumes of feed barley...

Oilseed Highlights

It is quite uncommon for rain to fall in India's Rajastan state in the winter. However, reports indicate precipitation was received in several areas where...

The EPA Considers Sorghum for Cellulosic

The National Sorghum Producers (NSP) had asked that the EPA conduct an evaluation to determine which biofuels category (including cellulosic ethanol) could...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's Ministry of Supply has announced that the maximum moisture level for imported wheat will remain unchanged at 13.5 percent. It also said that the co...

A View of U.S. Corn Production and Stocks

No matter what corn yield and production numbers one might use for the U.S. 2014 crop, they will set new records by wide margins. This crop shows the kind...

Market Commentary

What is interesting is the extent to which grain and soy futures appear (so far) to be mostly unmoved by the current outside market turmoil. The soy comple...

Oilseed Highlights

It is quite uncommon for rain to fall in India's Rajastan state in the winter. However, reports indicate precipitation was received in several areas where...

Biotech; Meat; Forex

China is considering a food safety change that would require the labeling of foods containing genetically engineered components, banking that public awaren...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

News UpdatesMEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST COMMENTSEgypt's Ministry of Supply has announced that the maximum moisture level for imported wheat will remain uncha...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

In a surprising turn of events, Chinese regulators recently lifted the ban on U.S. DDGS that had been set in place in October over concerns regarding the d...

Nigeria; Mexico

The People's Democratic Party (PDP) has governed Nigeria since rule by the military ended 15 years ago. However, luck may run out on the PDP and the reelec...

Market Commentary

The soy complex continues to defy the calls for its demise. No one is certain what triggered today's round of buying, but it was effective and pushed soybe...

Oil Prices: Looking Beyond the Bears

Ever since the late November OPEC meeting where the Saudis pledged specific efforts to stem the growth in light-tight U.S. oil production, the bears have b...

Weather, Where Art Thou?

The markets are still not very worried about world weather, but some concerns have been expressed occasionally about the condition of the world's winter wh...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Since India lost the case at the WTO regarding the import ban on U.S. poultry, there has been pressure on the Ministry of Commerce and Department of Animal...

Liberalize; Disparate; Uniform; Will Not Happen

The Nikkei is reporting that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement could entail uniform tariffs on agricultural trade across all 12 countries with...

Meat and Livestock Overview

The newly organized North American Meat Institute (NAMI) has charged the federal Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee with dropping a recommendation to in...

Barbarians Indeed

The barbarians, in this case, are the institutional investors who are increasingly turning their attention and money toward agriculture and, specifically,...

Market Commentary

The sharp breaks in the soy and wheat markets seemed to overpower any friendly news in the corn market. The technical outlook for corn has also turned bear...

TPP Signals; Cheers via Trade

The Nikkei reports that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe would like to visit the United States in late April or early May. It notes that the Obama White...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

An initial estimate of Russia's 2014 grain and leguminous crop harvest indicates that it should surpass the 2013 total. Meanwhile, implementation of the ne...

Market Commentary

Futures trading on this last day of the year saw Chicago wheat fall 10-12 cents. Corn futures dropped more than 9 cents – a major move for the corn market...

Meat: End-of-Year Cold Storage and 2015 Trends

USDA released its cold storage report yesterday afternoon with a few surprises for the trade, while today's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report indicates that p...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Having dropped more than 50 cents from recent highs, the wheat market is sending bearish technical momentum signals that seem likely to continue. The corn...

Europe; Russia; Lobbyists; Food Safety

The Financial Times (FT) has frequently ranted against the austerity measures imposed on other EU members by Germany, but also voices skepticism about the...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Egypt's Chamber of Tourism reports that a side effect of the Russian situation is a 30 percent decline in hotel bookings. The decrease will have a serious...

The Russian Wheat Outlook

The questions now to be answered are how much wheat will Russia export by the end of January and how much of the world's 2014/15 wheat demand, which it pot...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has announced it will conduct a one-year review of the monarch butterfly to determine whether it warrants protection und...

Another Volatile Year

The bearish news was all on the supply side. 2014 was a year of record world crop production, which couldn't have come at a better time with world supplies...

California Egg Restrictions Go into Effect in 2015

California's infamous egg-layer referendum of 2008 comes home to roost on New Year's Day as all eggs sold in the state must comply with the associated regu...

China In-Country Analysis

Following its previous efforts to limit corn imports and unwind the large surplus of domestic stocks, China's National Reform and Development Commission (N...

2015: Policy Debates Ahead

The farm bill debate in 2014 focused more on efforts to cut food assistance to the poor than on program benefits to farmers. That will change in the future...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed in the overnight session with corn steady, while wheat and soybeans were higher. Volume was again light overnight but picked up consider...

NEI Deadline; India’s Games

The National Export Initiative (NEI) launched by President Obama in his 2010 State of the Union address failed to double American exports (up around half t...

USDA Implementing Crop Insurance Yield Exclusion

According to USDA, nearly 80 percent of all acres and liability that are covered in the federal crop insurance program will be eligible for YE beginning in...

Market Commentary

The impact of Russia's significant tariff on wheat exports that was announced is yet to be determined. Markets opened steady to higher with soybeans up 3-5...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Recent warm weather across the Northern Hemisphere has left zero snow cover across nearly all of the winter wheat production regions of the U.S. and Black...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The long-standing demand from the Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India to boost the duty for crude and refined edible oils was met by the governme...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

India; AGOA

In its latest report on India's trade policy plan, the ITC notes that the number of U.S. companies adversely affected by restrictive Indian measures has ju...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

A large part of Chinese soybean needs for February will be covered by U.S. origin, which will reduce the demand for Brazilian stocks. That is not good as a...

India; AGOA

In its latest report on India's trade policy, the ITC notes that the number of U.S. companies adversely affected by restrictive Indian measures has jumped...

Market Commentary

The volume of overnight trade appeared to be quite low as one might expect just before a major holiday. Markets were mixed overnight with wheat and soybean...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian grain market was influenced by several very serious factors during the week in review. These included the sharp ruble devaluation, a suspension...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

CFTC Rulemaking; Monopsonists, Bureaucratize

For years, the leadership of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) complained that it could not do its job due to inadequate budget resource...

A Look Backward at 2014

2014 will surely go down as one of the most memorable years in U.S. crop production history. Planted corn acreage in 2014 fell almost 5 percent below the p...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Turkey is now the world's largest exporter of wheat flour, shipping as much as 2 MMT per year. Although quite a bit of that flour goes to Asia, its two mai...

Market Commentary

Overnight and again during the day session, grain and soy futures traded both sides in light holiday-type volume. The corn market was the most placid with...

U.S. and Mexico Cut Deal on Sugar Case

Once the agreements are signed, the Commerce Dept. will suspend the existing AD and CVD cases against Mexican sugar without issuing final determinations on...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports out of Europe indicate the EU's ban on the use of neonicotinoid insecticides is likely to result in a substantial decrease in its 2015 rapeseed pro...

China In-Country Analysis

It is clear that China's new administration continues to consider the nation's agricultural development and reform to be its top priority as adjustments in...

Obama Cuba Initiative to Face Congressional Hurdles

If this initiative is to move forward in any form from diplomatic relations to some sort of trade expansion over the next two years (the duration of the re...

Sugarplums; Turkey

Anti-Big Ag campaigners are quick to blame food and the industry for obesity, but there are two fundamental sides to the equation: calories in and calories...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Corn had another day of light volume and not much actual price movement. It sat back and watched as wheat traded double-digit gains and then backed off to...

China and Sorghum, Etc.

What analysts have missed, or at least ignored, is that China replaced U.S. corn imports with U.S. sorghum over the past 12 months on an almost one-for-one...

An Early Peak at USDA Baseline

It's important to remember that the numbers released yesterday are really just snippets from the baseline projections that will be released in full in Febr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

JCCT Delivers; Stories of 2014 and 2015

The outcome of this week's U.S.–China Meeting of the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) is even better than hoped. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack's...

Market Commentary

Markets were weak overnight with wheat leading the way down after yesterday's technically poor closes. Corn again had a very docile trading day, considerin...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India is committed to a continued investment in basic science and adherece to stated government policy, it seems that the NGOs are undermining the re...

New Senate Ag Committee

In the 113th Congress, the Democratic majority enjoyed a two-seat advantage on this committee with 11 spots to the minority's nine. That ratio will switch...

Oilseed Highlights

Because the U.S. has an overwhelming share of the soybean, soymeal and soyoil imports by other countries in the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico, ther...

The Cuban Détente

Since the embargo and economic isolation have failed, it seems like a good time to try economic engagement instead, especially given that there will be som...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Hijinks; Misfueled; Green; Hope

India proudly announced its launch of the 630-ton geosynchronous satellite launch vehicle known as the MKIII. However, the government could better have use...

Market Commentary

It was a day of consolidation for a number of commodity markets, some of which took place after wild price swings. The wheat market added more risk premium...

Canadians Using Hot Rhetoric over COOL

As the Canadian Cattlemen Association has indicated, any retaliatory tariffs will be targeted toward products from states where legislators and lawmakers h...

Lies; Speculation; Substitution; Cuba

CFTC Chairman Timothy Massad made the bold claim at a Senate hearing this week that his agency would develop "bright-line rules" in its pending position li...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

During this week, Brazil finally started to weaken the real (Brazilian currency). The market had expected this move after the elections, and farmers were i...

List of 40 RFS Reform Ideas Released

The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) staff constructed the options into a list, noting that the effort was directed at  providing reform and not repeal...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

It was reported on 15 December that Russian grain exporters have suspended the signing of any new grain export contracts due to the recent RUB rate fluctua...

Market Commentary

Led by KC HRW, U.S. wheat futures prices charged higher on word that Russia was attempting to restrict grain exports by denying quality certification on ex...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Morocco's grain imports for the June-October period are up by 80 percent against last year at a total 2.2 MMT including 750,000 MT of wheat  and 1.1 M...

Market Commentary

The corn market tried to follow wheat's early strength but could not generate enough serious buying interest to make a go of it. Soybeans were weak all day...

Currencies and Other Stuff

The steady growth of the U.S. economy has caused the U.S. dollar to appreciate against the currencies of other nations such as Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, Arg...

Oilseed Highlights

France's Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll today announced the government there plans to spend about 150 million euros per year between now and 2020 to...

Organic Shakedown; RFS Reform; Hostile

Both ethanol supporters and its oil industry opponents panned a set of reforms to the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposed by the Bipartisan Policy Cente...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

The falling soybean stocks in China's ports and the delayed arrivals have allowed crushers to firm up their soymeal prices. However, producers' oil and mea...

Market Commentary

Corn traded higher most of the session on more confusion over whether China has or soon will announce the approval of the MIR162 hybrid. Meanwhile, none of...

Funding Bill: Final Ag Numbers and News

The agricultural provision of the appropriations language provides $20.6 billion in discretionary funding – $305 million below the FY 2014 enacted level. I...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Approximately 15 percent of Bulgaria's intended wheat acreage could not be planted due to excessive rains, and the  2015 crop will be 4 MMT at best (v...

Latest 2015 Crop Budget Worksheets

The projected 2015 net returns per acre, even though still negative for spring wheat and corn and barely positive for soybeans, are far better than they we...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a higher procurement price of molasses-based ethanol in the range of $2.94-3.00/gallon for th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Markets Don’t Feel Like the Holidays

Nearly every market analysis or presentation seems to start with the assessment that the "world is awash" in grains and oilseeds. It is now mid-December, a...

New Republican House Ag Committee Members

Incoming House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway (R-TX) has reorganized a number of subcommittees to better suit his announced priorities...

Market Commentary

Markets were very active overnight in very good trading volume for the night session. Prices turned decidedly higher when Europe came to work, reportedly o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Futures Position Limits Redux

Clearly, the CFTC is having difficulty fitting commercial hedging practices and the long-standing hedging exemption for grain markets into its proposed new...

Oilseed Highlights

China's Ministry of Commerce is currently indicating the country's December soybean imports will be about 6.8 MMT, but that number is far below the likely...

Market Commentary

After a few days of hesitation, technically-trading funds returned to the grain and soy markets today. They were most active in the corn market where they...

Federal Government to Stay Open

The funding bill included a directive for USDA and the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to report recommendations to Congress no later than 1 May 2015 that...

Compromise and Trade

In essence, the U.S. government has just successfully made a $1.1 trillion, 1,603-page piece of sausage nicknamed the "CRomnibus." Those hoping for accompl...

Atlantic versus Pacific

German Minister of Agriculture Christian Schmidt cautioned a Washington audience that his countrymen lack confidence in American production practices such...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

649,400 MT of grain were exported from Ukrainian sea ports between 1-7 December, while 429,100 MT were exported from Russian sea ports during the same peri...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina's new crop wheat is currently being harvested. Although it is the least expensive and best alternative for Brazilian millers, they have decided t...

Market Commentary

Any bullish impact from USDA's higher 2014/15 soybean export estimate and lower soybean carryout was swept away by Conab's forecast that Brazil's soybean c...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Immigration; Derivatives; IT

While most migrant labor was previously focused in the specialty crops area, the whole agricultural sector has become more broadly dependent on workers tha...

Market Commentary

After trading slightly lower overnight, corn and soybean prices both encountered enough buying about midway through the day session to carry them to gains...

Oilseed Highlights

Brazil recently imposed a 7 percent blending mandate for combining biodiesel with petroleum diesel. The higher production would increase the use of soyoil...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Crude Oil Exports

Although oil state lawmakers of both parties support the lifting of the crude oil export ban, the rank-and-file non-energy state Republicans are more cauti...

Anticipating the December WASDE

Without fresh production estimates for U.S. corn and soybeans, the December WASDE only offers some adjustments to those estimates for elsewhere around the...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

Reports from Turkey indicate that the government is now strictly enforcing GMO import rules, which have resulted in the rejection of several vessels of U.S...

Notes from the IAOM

No one was outright bullish about wheat. The consensus was cautionary heading into 2015 because of the potential production problems that "might" occur.I w...

Ag Review: Transportation Outlook 2014

Limits on Agriculture and Transport The upcoming U.S. election is occurring amidst geopolitical upheaval and macroeconomic malaise, but there is a pan-Paci...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The feed wheat price rally (approximately $30 in one month) is motivating consumers in the EU and the major Mediterranean destinations to increase their co...

Quick Look at the FY 2015 Federal Budget So Far

According to the CBO's monthly budget review for November 2014, the federal budget deficit was $181 billion for the first two months of the new fiscal year...

China In-Country Analysis

China rolled out several agriculture reform policies regarding land use, seed development and agriculture insurance over the past two weeks as the country'...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trade Week; Sugar Inequality

Washington has been captured by several special interests through the years but perhaps none as successfully against the odds as sugar producers. Trade Non...

Market Commentary

March corn spent the day drifting lower from the daily high of $3.9975/bushel to close about 10 cents lower. However, it is premature to interpret this pri...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's annual edible oil demand stands at 18-19 MMT with an annual growth rate of approximately 4 percent. Last year's imports totaled 11.3 MMT, but that...

Friends; Surprise; Okay

While Chinese government officials announced an effort to reduce fertilizer and pesticide use by 2020 in an attempt to decrease pollution, the U.S. EPA was...

Oil Prices Changing Incentives

The news is full of stories about falling oil prices. While energy is a key component of the economy, high and low prices simply switch economic incentives...

Wheat – Part II

How great have world wheat crops been? Russia, Ukraine, China, India and Canada have all had record yields in at least two of the last three years. However...

Market Commentary

Today's price action in March corn looks strong. That contract seems to be in the process of rejecting recent market discussion about the formation of a he...

Immigration Clampdown in Canada Impacting Pork Exports

Changes made to Canada's temporary foreign worker plan in June are having a negative impact on the meat packing industry and export expansion. This is due...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's USDA export sales report indicated U.S. exporters last week sold substantially more soybeans and soymeal than analysts surveyed by Reuters predicte...

Argentina Uses Banks to Squeeze Farmers

The Argentine government is now financially pressuring farmers in its ongoing attempt to force them to sell the soybeans they are holding as a hedge agains...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Politics, Supply and Demand

Whenever crop prices fall uncomfortably low, there are always those who argue that the U.S. government should return to some sort of supply management prog...

Market Commentary

Triggered by  unexpectedly large export sales and helped along by fund buying, corn futures closed up more than 7 cents and near session highs. Soybea...

Not Ready; Not Ready; Ready

The Obama administration is sending clear signals that it wants TPA and tax overhaul legislation. However, the first step is House passage today of tax ext...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Rosselkhoznadzor, the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance,  wants to decrease the volume of grain exports by tighten...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazilian soybeans presently look more attractive than the U.S. competition, but are hampered by concerns about dependability of shipments. However, waitin...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices continued to languish in the red during much of the day session. January soybeans were down 12 cents at one point and well below techn...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Climate Change and Agriculture: Part Deux

Back in 2008, climate change was a hot topic for U.S. agriculture with both presidential candidates having proactive plans to address greenhouse gases and...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading in grains and the soy complex was slower and lower with modest losses across the board. There was more chatter about the potential for so...

Middle East and Mediterranean Regional Analysis

According to Egypt's Agricultural Research Center (ARC), approximately 14 percent of the country's wheat production is lost annually. It also said that Egy...

Oilseed Highlights

The new Indonesian government has made achieving self-sufficiency in the production of soybeans, sugar, rice, corn and meat a greater priority than its pre...

Economics and Policy Redux

Agricultural commodity prices are low once again, sparking the return of the supply management advocates. Supply Management Redux Agricultural commodity p...

Looking for the Next Bull Market

With the fall harvests essentially completed and something of a hiatus in fresh inputs from USDA until 12 January when it releases final production estimat...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Putin Oil; Interstellar Corn; Cotton Hypocrisy

OPEC keeps drilling and America keeps fracking despite crude oil trading under $70/barrel. This may not be the result of collusion between Washington and R...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The dry and cold weather in southern Russia is a serious concern for next year's wheat crop. Local analysts are estimating that it could decline 10-15 MMT...

Late Year Politics Driving Policy

Congress is back in a lame-duck session to hash out a few issues, most of which have been overshadowed by politics. These include tax exenders, appropriati...

Market Commentary

There was little buying at today's opening in corn and soybeans, and they were both down 5-7 cents by mid-morning. Wheat, however, was strong overnight and...

Wheat Takes Over

Early 2015 world wheat production estimates had been hovering near the record levels of the previous two years. Now a number of recent issues have pushed w...

China In-Country Analysis

China's domestic soybean crushers' margins did improve from mid-September through mid-November due to the idling of plants and a temporary supply shortage...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

FDA Releases Menu Labeling Rule

Restaurants were originally opposed to it, but with a spate of state and local laws creating a regulatory patchwork, many national chains came around to su...

Sorghum Export Sales Soar

Changes in U.S. market share for global soyoil exports, along with those of soymeal, are analyzed. Results offer insight into the opportunities U.S. export...

Cyber Threats to TTIP; Extenders; Mercosur

U.S. agriculture can no longer claim to be singled out for abuse by Europe's anti-technology policy; Brussels now views major American information technolo...

Market Commentary

OPEC's announcement that it will not reduce production sent prices crashing lower, while U.S. financial markets were strong and again reached new highs. Ag...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's corn production has declined for many reasons including erratic rains, late sowing in some cases and also  the switch to soybeans by some farm...

Oilseed Highlights

Today's weekly USDA export sales report once again indicated there was a net decline in U.S. soymeal export sales last week of 22,300 MT. Meanwhile, last w...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mea Culpa

Experience breeds skepticism when it comes to trade policy matters, but that resulted in our erroneous underestimation of U.S. Trade Representative Michael...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The South American soybean market was quiet this past week. Demand from China is presumed to be slow because crush margins there are not very good. Then ag...

Market Commentary

The wildest action on the board today was in soymeal spreads. Meanwhile, corn was lightly traded, and prices dawdled around in a 5-cent price range before...

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