World Perspectives

Recent Australia Analysis

wheat

Cure for High Prices

Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to China are up 158 percent. These sales have occured despite Chinese restrictions on many other Australian farm products. Trade ministers from...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks.  The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel.   The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks.  Wo...

ANZ Split; Labor Key to PA

Anz Split The Australia-New Zealand relationship is very tight, with both nations freely trading with one another and generally sharing positions on foreign policy. However, China has created a bit of an ANZ split. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong visited China on the 50th anniversary of...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. domestic wheat data is unchanged from last month. The global wheat supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australia production.  ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Selloff Intensifies; Aussie Wheat Crop Gets Bigger

Monday offered little reprieve from the CBOT’s recent trends with the selloffs in soyoil and wheat intensifying. Funds were net sellers in both markets, but for different reasons. In soyoil, the EPA’s latest renewable fuel volume mandates are, at least for now, perceived as bearish...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Cattle Prices Continue Bullish

Live cattle negotiated prices in the south hit $155/cwt this week, while in the north they reached $157, and still some sellers held out for more. Negotiated dressed prices averaged $245/cwt.   Slaughter last week was down due to the Thanksgiving holiday but was still higher than the...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month.  Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat.  The all-wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bus...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for slightly lower ending stocks of global wheat.  Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low.   Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production mor...

wheat

Down Under Limits

Major wheat exporters have a tremendous opportunity if they can take their advantage. India was thought to be in the catbird seat. Production was going to be up 1.6 percent but the exportabe surplus would be up 200 percent, until it wasn’t. Dry heat shrunk the crop and now there are expor...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest.  All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...

Reprieve on Emissions Data; IPEF Launch; GMO Wheat

Reprieve on Emissions Data At the request of U.S. farm groups, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the deadline for public comments on its proposed rule, “The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate Related Disclosures for Investors.” The Commission wants pu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China Tensions and Trade

Using trade as a bullying tool did not start and end with Donald Trump. Most recently, Russia’s Vladimir Putin limited food exports to so-called “friendly” countries. Starting in 2020 when Australia called for an investigation into COVID’s origin, Beijing began an effort...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA reduced U.S. exports by 15 million bushels, to 785 million, as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets.  Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 678 million but are still 20 percent lower than last year. The projected sea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Definitively Lower

The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE

USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” changes, and that is an apt description. This report involved a few tweaks, but nothing that reflected all of the jockeying in the market ahea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Omicron Correction

It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indications that this version of the virus is not deadlier, that it may even follow the evolutionary trend of viruses getting weaker over time, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)

“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...

wheat

Aussie Wheat Importance

Although Australia produces less than 5 percent of global wheat output, it is typically the world’s fourth largest exporter. Due to its tendency toward drought, production can be variable but still correlates over time to global wheat ending stocks. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural a...

feed-grains livestock soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary: Weak Energies Weigh on Soy Complex; Wheat Ignores Bearish Technicals

Continued declines in energy markets pressured the CBOT on Friday and reduced fund buying interest. Soyoil futures fell lower and to near trading range support on weaker energy markets and pulled soybeans lower as well. Wheat futures were higher as traders pointed to strong demand as reason to...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

The November WASDE projected U.S. wheat ending stocks at 583 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 3 million from the October forecast. The projected 2021/22 season-average U.S. farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.90. Global wheat ending stocks are down 1.4 million...

livestock

Beef: Where East Meets West

Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U.S. It has also resulted in a drawdown in the regions surplus stocks. Complicating the supply situation has been drought in Australia, an at...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Correction Continues; Cash Wheat Strong Despite Futures’ Decline

The CBOT ended the week on a down note with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all posting losses for the day. Corn and wheat attempted to rally early in the day, but that effort was met with stiff selling pressure and more cash selling from farmers. Harvest activity has increased across the east...

feed-grains

Beer Pressures

Global supply chain issues are pressuring many industries, but beer makers face a complex set of issues. Prices have risen for malt barley, aluminum, labor, and transportation. Already elevated malt prices started rising more in mid-summer when the impact of North American drought conditions be...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Despite drought in Argentina that came during the early phases of the wheat crop, rains appeared during the critical yield-defining periods and boosted yield potential. Consequently, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased its crop estimate from 19.2 to 19.8 MMT for MY 2021/22. Almost...

wheat

Cure for High Prices

Good moisture has enabled Australia to produce a record sized wheat crop. Due to proximity, Australia largely serves Asian markets and its wheat sales to China are up 158 percent. These sales have occured despite Chinese restrictions on many other Australian farm products. Trade ministers from...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT: USDA reduced 2022/23 ending stocks slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks.  The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel.   The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks.  Wo...

ANZ Split; Labor Key to PA

Anz Split The Australia-New Zealand relationship is very tight, with both nations freely trading with one another and generally sharing positions on foreign policy. However, China has created a bit of an ANZ split. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong visited China on the 50th anniversary of...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. domestic wheat data is unchanged from last month. The global wheat supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australia production.  ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Selloff Intensifies; Aussie Wheat Crop Gets Bigger

Monday offered little reprieve from the CBOT’s recent trends with the selloffs in soyoil and wheat intensifying. Funds were net sellers in both markets, but for different reasons. In soyoil, the EPA’s latest renewable fuel volume mandates are, at least for now, perceived as bearish...

livestock

Livestock Round Up: Cattle Prices Continue Bullish

Live cattle negotiated prices in the south hit $155/cwt this week, while in the north they reached $157, and still some sellers held out for more. Negotiated dressed prices averaged $245/cwt.   Slaughter last week was down due to the Thanksgiving holiday but was still higher than the...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  USDA made a light increase in U.S. 2022/2023 wheat production to 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month.  Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat.  The all-wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bus...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s June 2022 estimate is for slightly lower ending stocks of global wheat.  Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low.   Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production mor...

wheat

Down Under Limits

Major wheat exporters have a tremendous opportunity if they can take their advantage. India was thought to be in the catbird seat. Production was going to be up 1.6 percent but the exportabe surplus would be up 200 percent, until it wasn’t. Dry heat shrunk the crop and now there are expor...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT:  USDA’s outlook for 2022/23 is for higher U.S. wheat prices. U.S. 2022/23 wheat supplies are projected down 3 percent, as lower beginning stocks more than offset a larger harvest.  All wheat production for 2022/23 is projected at 1,729 million bushels, up 83 million from...

Reprieve on Emissions Data; IPEF Launch; GMO Wheat

Reprieve on Emissions Data At the request of U.S. farm groups, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the deadline for public comments on its proposed rule, “The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate Related Disclosures for Investors.” The Commission wants pu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

China Tensions and Trade

Using trade as a bullying tool did not start and end with Donald Trump. Most recently, Russia’s Vladimir Putin limited food exports to so-called “friendly” countries. Starting in 2020 when Australia called for an investigation into COVID’s origin, Beijing began an effort...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT: In the April 2022 WASDE, USDA reduced U.S. exports by 15 million bushels, to 785 million, as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets.  Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 678 million but are still 20 percent lower than last year. The projected sea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Definitively Lower

The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: The Mysteries of WASDE

USDA seems to never cease disappointing some traders’ expectations. USDA characterized its December WASDE report as containing “minor” changes, and that is an apt description. This report involved a few tweaks, but nothing that reflected all of the jockeying in the market ahea...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Omicron Correction

It was a risk off day as investors shook off earlier Omicron concerns and bought back part of what they’d given up in the past few days. With indications that this version of the virus is not deadlier, that it may even follow the evolutionary trend of viruses getting weaker over time, and...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: COVID Tanks Markets (again)

“… [covid’s] always on my mind, [covid’s] always on my mind.” With apologies to Willie Nelson, that was the tune markets were singing Tuesday. After a brief pause yesterday, crude oil, stocks, currencies, and commodities all continued Friday’s risk-off and l...

wheat

Aussie Wheat Importance

Although Australia produces less than 5 percent of global wheat output, it is typically the world’s fourth largest exporter. Due to its tendency toward drought, production can be variable but still correlates over time to global wheat ending stocks. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural a...

feed-grains livestock soy-oilseeds

Market Commentary: Weak Energies Weigh on Soy Complex; Wheat Ignores Bearish Technicals

Continued declines in energy markets pressured the CBOT on Friday and reduced fund buying interest. Soyoil futures fell lower and to near trading range support on weaker energy markets and pulled soybeans lower as well. Wheat futures were higher as traders pointed to strong demand as reason to...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

The November WASDE projected U.S. wheat ending stocks at 583 million bushels for the 2021/22 season. That estimate is up 3 million from the October forecast. The projected 2021/22 season-average U.S. farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.90. Global wheat ending stocks are down 1.4 million...

livestock

Beef: Where East Meets West

Beef demand in East Asia is on a long-term trend upward. Fulfilling this demand has required increased imports, primarily from Australia, Brazil, and the U.S. It has also resulted in a drawdown in the regions surplus stocks. Complicating the supply situation has been drought in Australia, an at...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Correction Continues; Cash Wheat Strong Despite Futures’ Decline

The CBOT ended the week on a down note with corn, wheat, and the soy complex all posting losses for the day. Corn and wheat attempted to rally early in the day, but that effort was met with stiff selling pressure and more cash selling from farmers. Harvest activity has increased across the east...

feed-grains

Beer Pressures

Global supply chain issues are pressuring many industries, but beer makers face a complex set of issues. Prices have risen for malt barley, aluminum, labor, and transportation. Already elevated malt prices started rising more in mid-summer when the impact of North American drought conditions be...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat Despite drought in Argentina that came during the early phases of the wheat crop, rains appeared during the critical yield-defining periods and boosted yield potential. Consequently, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased its crop estimate from 19.2 to 19.8 MMT for MY 2021/22. Almost...

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