World Perspectives

Recent Australia Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Thoughts from the August WASDE

Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains

Malt Prices Rising

The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets are being whipsawed as concerns about the economy apply downward pressure as seen in the last overnight session and then buoyed somewhat this morning by the Export Sales report. Let’s start with the economy. It suffered a huge contraction due to COVID-19. Everyone knew that before...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Pandemic, the Economy and Demand

The Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting ended yesterday. No one expects the Fed to change its stance on record low interest rates or to ease up on its buying of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities as a means of pumping money into the economy. The minutes of this week’s F...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

The Price Ain’t Right; Food Standards Fraud; Opportunity Strikes

The Price Ain’t Right German Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner thinks the problem is inexpensive meat. She told Reuters that, “Meat is too cheap. Lurid advertising with low prices for meat does not fit with appreciation and sustainability…This is no longer acceptable.&rdqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about.  Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).  The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...

wheat

Competitiveness of Wheat Exporters

Price and export market share should be correlated. In other words, lower cost producers should be able to expand their sales while higher cost sellers should see a decline in exports. With wheat, that may not be true. However, just looking at the farmgate value of wheat in the top exporting na...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1,877 million bushels. Total domestic supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million bushels.  World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks.   India’s c...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Changes in USDA WASDE Report; Soy Export Sales; Argentine Takeover of Vicentin

Today’s USDA WASDE report did not include any major unexpected changes in the supply and demand situation for the soy sector. U.S. soybean exports in 2019/20 were reduced, but U.S. soybean crush was increased as were U.S. soyoil exports. Overall, the report was relatively neutral to sligh...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was broadly lower on Tuesday as good crop conditions across the U.S. and surprisingly large Brazilian crop forecasts pressured the markets. Cattle futures defied the bearish trend and close higher. Funds started selling grains at the open, triggering sell-stops in soybeans and soymeal...

Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics

Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...

Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform

Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...

livestock

Let Them Have Meat

Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The day started and ended as called with Chicago wheat and the livestock complex in the green while corn and soybeans went under water. Wheat remains the play with substantial volume trying to get in even as there was substantial volume working against soybeans. With a three-day holiday weekend...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shipped in two 40,000 MT lots in May and July. This is part of the UN food aid program. Financial experts are forecasting a 2020 drop in the va...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Estimates - U.S. wheat in 2020/21 will have reduced stocks.  The 2020/21 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,866 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year as lower yields offsett higher harvested acreage.  The all-wheat yield is projected at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bus...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened with short covering that lifted corn and soybeans higher early in the day. Firmer crude oil prices were supportive initially. Row crops ended up trading both sides of unchanged but finished slightly higher ahead of First Notice day tomorrow. Wheat was the bigger story of the day...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was higher overnight on short covering and what looked to be the start of a Turnaround Tuesday. The day session, however, featured aggressive fund selling in row crops that eliminated any hope for a turnaround. Wheat futures managed to find some support off yesterday’s Crop Condi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Thoughts from the August WASDE

Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains

Malt Prices Rising

The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets are being whipsawed as concerns about the economy apply downward pressure as seen in the last overnight session and then buoyed somewhat this morning by the Export Sales report. Let’s start with the economy. It suffered a huge contraction due to COVID-19. Everyone knew that before...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Pandemic, the Economy and Demand

The Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting ended yesterday. No one expects the Fed to change its stance on record low interest rates or to ease up on its buying of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities as a means of pumping money into the economy. The minutes of this week’s F...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

The Price Ain’t Right; Food Standards Fraud; Opportunity Strikes

The Price Ain’t Right German Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner thinks the problem is inexpensive meat. She told Reuters that, “Meat is too cheap. Lurid advertising with low prices for meat does not fit with appreciation and sustainability…This is no longer acceptable.&rdqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about.  Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).  The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...

wheat

Competitiveness of Wheat Exporters

Price and export market share should be correlated. In other words, lower cost producers should be able to expand their sales while higher cost sellers should see a decline in exports. With wheat, that may not be true. However, just looking at the farmgate value of wheat in the top exporting na...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA estimates U.S. wheat production at 1,877 million bushels. Total domestic supplies are raised 16 million to 3,000 million bushels.  World 2020/21 wheat supplies are raised 5.7 million tons on a 4.9-million-ton production increase and higher beginning stocks.   India’s c...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Soy Changes in USDA WASDE Report; Soy Export Sales; Argentine Takeover of Vicentin

Today’s USDA WASDE report did not include any major unexpected changes in the supply and demand situation for the soy sector. U.S. soybean exports in 2019/20 were reduced, but U.S. soybean crush was increased as were U.S. soyoil exports. Overall, the report was relatively neutral to sligh...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was broadly lower on Tuesday as good crop conditions across the U.S. and surprisingly large Brazilian crop forecasts pressured the markets. Cattle futures defied the bearish trend and close higher. Funds started selling grains at the open, triggering sell-stops in soybeans and soymeal...

Rethinking Development Agriculture; Rethinking Economics

Rethinking Development Agriculture Diego Restuccia, a professor of economics and Canada Research Chair at the University of Toronto examined the total factor productivity (TFP) differences between developing countries and rich countries and found the misallocation of resources to be a significa...

Trade Managed by China; India Tiptoes Reform

Trade Managed by China Australia Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said that government is looking carefully to see if the U.S. – China Phase One trade agreement is resulting in “managed trade” that is violating the rules of the WTO. Well the agreement is certainly managed trade...

livestock

Let Them Have Meat

Most of the top ten beef producing countries around the world have increased production over the past decade except for two, the EU and Australia. Australia has had some issues with drought, but domestic consumption has also dropped in these two markets. In fact, consumption in Australia has dr...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The day started and ended as called with Chicago wheat and the livestock complex in the green while corn and soybeans went under water. Wheat remains the play with substantial volume trying to get in even as there was substantial volume working against soybeans. With a three-day holiday weekend...

feed-grains wheat soy-oilseeds

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Regional Updates MEDITERRANEAN/MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA  The United Nations reportedly purchased 80,000 MT of Ukraine wheat for Sudan that will be shipped in two 40,000 MT lots in May and July. This is part of the UN food aid program. Financial experts are forecasting a 2020 drop in the va...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Estimates - U.S. wheat in 2020/21 will have reduced stocks.  The 2020/21 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,866 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year as lower yields offsett higher harvested acreage.  The all-wheat yield is projected at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bus...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT opened with short covering that lifted corn and soybeans higher early in the day. Firmer crude oil prices were supportive initially. Row crops ended up trading both sides of unchanged but finished slightly higher ahead of First Notice day tomorrow. Wheat was the bigger story of the day...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

The CBOT was higher overnight on short covering and what looked to be the start of a Turnaround Tuesday. The day session, however, featured aggressive fund selling in row crops that eliminated any hope for a turnaround. Wheat futures managed to find some support off yesterday’s Crop Condi...

Select Filters to Apply

  • Markets
  • Publications

Search World Perspectives

Sign In to World Perspectives

Don’t have an account yet? Sign Up