World Perspectives

Recent Australia Analysis

wheat

WASDE Wheat

November 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks.  Domestic use is raised, primarily on higher food use, which is increased 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019/20.  This increase is based m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans Score Technical Win; Profit Taking Pressures Grains

The CBOT opened higher but found profit taking and farm cash/hedging sales that pushed markets off the day’s highs. The soy complex was once again the upside leader with soyoil and soybeans being the strongest legs of the crush. Buy soy/sell wheat or corn spread trades were also active to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday on Shrinking Corn, Soybean Yields

Election day is here for the U.S. and both CBOT and macro markets seemed to take encouragement from that fact. The dollar moved sharply lower on election uncertainty and the movement of some cash parked internationally back to U.S. bank accounts. The weaker dollar helped support the CBOT and ot...

Unseriousness of Campaign Promises; Big is Better; Eating American

Unseriousness of Campaign Promises If the polls are correct, Joe Biden is elected president tomorrow and the question is what changes besides civility? Looking at his campaign promises potentially impacting agriculture there is a lot of repetition from the past, a past that was mostly different...

CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments

CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be. Delegations are split with some wanting to increase the mandatory level of 2nd Pillar support for eco-schemes to 40 percent, and boo...

Friday Intrigue

Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. In response, Beijing agreed to a lopsided trade deal in favor of the U.S. China had a $345 billion trade surplus with America last year. By c...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks:  U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels because of lower beginning stocks and reduced production - as indicated in the Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports. (The G...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  More favorable weather patterns have developed over Europe and western Ukraine in recent weeks. Last week saw widespread rainfall across the UK, western and central Europe, and western Ukraine. Parts of northern Germany and southeast Romania and Bulgaria missed these rains,...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged.   The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Barley Argentina’s final barley planted area is between 850,000 and 900,000 hectares, down 1 million from 2019. Assuming all goes well this growing season, production should be near 3.5 MMT.   Fields in the core area are suffering from a lack of rain and this may dampen final yi...

Rational Trade Dependence; Better Examples

Rational Trade Dependence Global trade has begun to rebound but there remains a great deal of misunderstanding about its economic role. President Donald Trump has spent his time in office decrying American dependence on what he perceives as imbalanced terms of trade. Australia may now believe t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Thoughts from the August WASDE

Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains

Malt Prices Rising

The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets are being whipsawed as concerns about the economy apply downward pressure as seen in the last overnight session and then buoyed somewhat this morning by the Export Sales report. Let’s start with the economy. It suffered a huge contraction due to COVID-19. Everyone knew that before...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Pandemic, the Economy and Demand

The Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting ended yesterday. No one expects the Fed to change its stance on record low interest rates or to ease up on its buying of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities as a means of pumping money into the economy. The minutes of this week’s F...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

The Price Ain’t Right; Food Standards Fraud; Opportunity Strikes

The Price Ain’t Right German Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner thinks the problem is inexpensive meat. She told Reuters that, “Meat is too cheap. Lurid advertising with low prices for meat does not fit with appreciation and sustainability…This is no longer acceptable.&rdqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about.  Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).  The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

November 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and reduced ending stocks.  Domestic use is raised, primarily on higher food use, which is increased 5 million bushels to 965 million, up from 962 million for 2019/20.  This increase is based m...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans Score Technical Win; Profit Taking Pressures Grains

The CBOT opened higher but found profit taking and farm cash/hedging sales that pushed markets off the day’s highs. The soy complex was once again the upside leader with soyoil and soybeans being the strongest legs of the crush. Buy soy/sell wheat or corn spread trades were also active to...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Turnaround Tuesday on Shrinking Corn, Soybean Yields

Election day is here for the U.S. and both CBOT and macro markets seemed to take encouragement from that fact. The dollar moved sharply lower on election uncertainty and the movement of some cash parked internationally back to U.S. bank accounts. The weaker dollar helped support the CBOT and ot...

Unseriousness of Campaign Promises; Big is Better; Eating American

Unseriousness of Campaign Promises If the polls are correct, Joe Biden is elected president tomorrow and the question is what changes besides civility? Looking at his campaign promises potentially impacting agriculture there is a lot of repetition from the past, a past that was mostly different...

CAP Reform in Focus; New Trade Policy; COVID Adjustments

CAP Reform in Focus This is a busy week in Brussels as tripartite negotiations hit a fever pitch over how green the next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be. Delegations are split with some wanting to increase the mandatory level of 2nd Pillar support for eco-schemes to 40 percent, and boo...

Friday Intrigue

Crying Uncle With seeming impunity, U.S. President Donald Trump has helped Taiwan and called for an investigation into the coronavirus mistakes in China. In response, Beijing agreed to a lopsided trade deal in favor of the U.S. China had a $345 billion trade surplus with America last year. By c...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA reduced ending stocks of wheat for the 2020/21 season but increased global ending stocks:  U.S. wheat supplies are reduced by 32 million bushels because of lower beginning stocks and reduced production - as indicated in the Grains Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary reports. (The G...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  More favorable weather patterns have developed over Europe and western Ukraine in recent weeks. Last week saw widespread rainfall across the UK, western and central Europe, and western Ukraine. Parts of northern Germany and southeast Romania and Bulgaria missed these rains,...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

Wheat – USDA left U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook unchanged.   The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for higher stocks - supplies were raised 3.3 million tons as higher production in Australia and Canada more than offset a smaller crop in Argentina. On net, global 2020/21 pro...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Last week (27 August), the European Union removed its tariffs on maize imports into the EU. The tariff was reduced to €0.28/MT on 26 August, after having been set at €5.48/MT since 12 August. The rising CBOT/U.S. Gulf values caused the adjustment and eventual elimi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Barley Argentina’s final barley planted area is between 850,000 and 900,000 hectares, down 1 million from 2019. Assuming all goes well this growing season, production should be near 3.5 MMT.   Fields in the core area are suffering from a lack of rain and this may dampen final yi...

Rational Trade Dependence; Better Examples

Rational Trade Dependence Global trade has begun to rebound but there remains a great deal of misunderstanding about its economic role. President Donald Trump has spent his time in office decrying American dependence on what he perceives as imbalanced terms of trade. Australia may now believe t...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Thoughts from the August WASDE

Last week we asked the rhetorical question “how big is big” as it applies to the U.S. and world grain and soybean supply and demand estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21. Yesterday, USDA and NASS provided their latest answers when the August WASDE was released. To summarize their answer...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA raised U.S. wheat production 14 million bushels to 1,838 million as increased Hard Red Spring (HRS) and Durum production more than offsets lower winter wheat production as indicated by the NASS August 12 Crop Production report.  Projected 2020/21 exports are raised 25 million bushels...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Weaker into the Weekend

The CBOT was sharply weaker heading into the weekend with many contracts posting new contract lows. September corn, December soymeal, and the first five listed HRW and MGEX wheat contracts all posted fresh contract lows. Soybeans, while far from contract lows, still posted a strongly bearish cl...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

How Big is Big?

One might say that grain and soy futures markets are a function of relative sizes.  Fundamentally, their prices are moved by how big or small crop production may be, by how large or how limited demand may be and by the size of each year’s ending stocks. Said another way, the fundamen...

feed-grains

Malt Prices Rising

The malting barley sector was thrown two curve balls this year: the shutdown of the hospitality sector by COVID-19, and China imposing punitive tariffs on its typical supplier, Australia. However, neither development explains the recent uptick in prices given that sales typically occur in the l...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

Markets are being whipsawed as concerns about the economy apply downward pressure as seen in the last overnight session and then buoyed somewhat this morning by the Export Sales report. Let’s start with the economy. It suffered a huge contraction due to COVID-19. Everyone knew that before...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

The Pandemic, the Economy and Demand

The Federal Reserve Bank’s July meeting ended yesterday. No one expects the Fed to change its stance on record low interest rates or to ease up on its buying of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities as a means of pumping money into the economy. The minutes of this week’s F...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA’s outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased stocks.  Supplies are raised as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production.   Beginning stocks are increased on the NASS Grain Stocks report, is...

The Price Ain’t Right; Food Standards Fraud; Opportunity Strikes

The Price Ain’t Right German Agriculture Minister Julia Kloeckner thinks the problem is inexpensive meat. She told Reuters that, “Meat is too cheap. Lurid advertising with low prices for meat does not fit with appreciation and sustainability…This is no longer acceptable.&rdqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary

It was a quiet session (December corn contract volume was down 55 percent from the five-day average) in an early close before a long weekend as some profit was taken off the table, but there are still things to talk about.  Economists polled by Reuters ahead of today’s U.S. jobs rep...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Policy China Makes New Overtures to Trans-Pacific Partnership Last month a series of articles appeared discussing Beijing’s new openness to joining the Comprehensive and Progress Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).  The current 11-member trading bloc consisting of eleven...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

European Market Analysis

Regional News  Europe’s wheat harvest is starting, and the market will be closely watching for reports of yield and quality issues. WPI sources suggest that the harvest in southern France has, so far, featured above-average quality but below-trendline yields. Yields, however, are exp...

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