World Perspectives

Biofuels Recent Biofuels Analysis

biofuel

RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook

Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came after two months of steady increases based on a bright outlook for retail motor fuel use this year. Recall on 7 December, the Administration...

biofuel

EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade

On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulatory agenda related to renewable fuels that it also announced in December.   The 2023 RVO’s, proposed this spring, will be the...

biofuel

Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs

There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues.  SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage implying that the EPA will deny all pending small refinery exemption (SRE) requests. But as we wrote on 7 December, that action would be&nb...

biofuel

Retro RVOs May Disappoint, but 2022 RVO Bullish Corn and Veg Oil

EPA released its 2022 proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS along with the retroactive 2021 volumes and an adjustment to the 2020 volumes.   EPA is also proposing to add a 250-million-gallon “supplemental obligation” to the volumes proposed for 2022 and...

biofuel

Ethanol Starting Out Marketing Year Strong; Vilsack Says RVOs Coming

USDA released the October Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was up 16 percent from October 2020, and up 15 percent from September. Ethanol production in October was a record. For the first two months of the marketing year, ethanol use of corn is 876.83 million bushel...

biofuel energy

Delayed RVOs Leads to Pushing Back RFS Compliance Deadlines

Recently, WPI reported on the Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit hearing about the timeline for the required volume obligations (RVOs) from EPA. We noted that Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, informed EPA via a 2 November letter of its intent to file suit if...

biofuel energy

SPR Release Turns Out to be Bullish

President Biden ordered the release of 50 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ease gas prices. The release will be in the form of a 32-million-barrel exchange solicitation to be open for bids tomorrow and the accelerating of 18 million-barrel to be sold w...

biofuel

Where’s the RVO?

The House Agriculture Committee’s Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit held a hearing today on the “Renewable Economy in Rural America.”  Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, mentioned in her testimony that “We are also a...

biofuel energy

October Ethanol Production a Blip Not a Trend According to EIA

Last week’s WASDE raised the outlook for corn used in ethanol production by 50 million bushels based on September data from USDA’s Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Lower in Consolidation, Profit Taking; Livestock Markets Rally

The CBOT ended lower Wednesday as profit taking and risk-off trade occurred ahead of next week’s WASDE report. World ag markets were overbought after months of rallies and needed to “cool off”. December Paris milling wheat futures were down €3/MT today and pulled back fro...

biofuel feed-grains

Bullish Ethanol Production

USDA released the September Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 2 percent from August, but up 1 percent from September 2020, starting the marketing year off in the right direction. Moreover, ethanol production for the week ending 22 October hit 1.106 million b...

biofuel

Private R&D Leads; Energy Confusion

Private R&D Leads Proponents of public sector agricultural R&D have typically touted the high rate of return on such investments and lamented that this spending category has been relatively flat for many years. This ignores that fact that private spending on agricultural R&D has bee...

energy biofuel

Actions Louder than Words; China Faces WTO

Actions Louder than Words The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released in August and the associated COP26 meeting begins at the end of October in Glasgow. Leaders gathered there will likely review the UN Environment Program’s released Product...

farm-inputs biofuel

High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs.    First, natural gas will continue pushing up nitrogen fertilizer prices. While there are a number of factors at play in fertil...

biofuel energy

Ongoing Biofuel Demand

The U.S. Energy Information Agency published its latest forecast for energy use through 2050 and it foresees no slackening in demand. Its projection for demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels only varies based on assumptions about economic growth and petroleum prices. This projection does...

biofuel energy

Ethanol Exports Up in August, but Still Missing Brazil

After dropping in July to the lowest level since October 2013, August ethanol exports shot back up in August, increasing about 55 percent. However, the August exports were still down about 17 percent from last year and from the previous five-year average for the month. Year-to-date exports (th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - September 2021

For 23 years, WPI’s monthly AgReview publication has provided in-depth analysis of markets and policy. Responding to changes in both business economics and clients’ needs, this will be our last edition. We will continue to include historical analysis with our successful daily Ag Per...

biofuel

Senator Grassley on RVOs: “Worst Week in Washington for Ethanol Ever”

There are more rumors circulating about potential cuts in the require volume obligations (RVOs) for biofuels. Those stories have certainly gained the attention of industry supporters on Capitol Hill, especially Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa).   There have been rumors for months that...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Nov 21 Soybeans closed at $12.85/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $339/short ton, down $1.1 from...

biofuel

Will Biofuels Go Sky High in Taking to the Air?

The Biden Administration last week announced an effort to lower carbon emissions in aviation, targeting a 20 percent drop in aviation emissions by 2030 and the “potential for a fully zero-carbon aviation sector by 2050.” That would be 3 billion gallons annual use by 2030, and potent...

biofuel

Will Coming RVOs be a 2013-2016 Redux?

The 2021 and 2022 proposed RVOs, developed by EPA, have been under review at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for a week. As we reported last Friday, the proposal was sent from EPA for review last Thursday. What is in the proposal is still a mystery, however. That differs from last yea...

biofuel

RFS Volume Rule Under Review: Going Retro for 2020

We reported on Monday that the EPA would be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question was when? We now know the answer: yesterday. There has been...

biofuel energy

Biofuel Falters

U.S. biofuel makers are disappointed that U.S. EPA is not more aggressively pushing fuel blending, but their plight is consistent with the pandemic related faltering in global biofuel production. The International Energy Agency (EIA) says that 10 percent annual increases are needed in global bi...

energy biofuel

Ball of Confusion: Waiting on RFS Volumes

The EPA will be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question is: when? As of this morning, there is no record of the proposal being sent to OMB for f...

soy-oilseeds biofuel wheat

PM Post - Bears Own the Day

THE OPEN Nov beans:  18 lower Dec meal:  4.00 lower Dec soyoil:  96 pts lower Dec corn:  9 lower Dec wheat:  12 lower The markets opened as expected but weaker outside markets, bearish Pro Farmer Crop tour comments, and rains forecasted for the weekend took a toll on th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds biofuel

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 August 2021 The domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia (except for corn prices), mainly due to the USDA report with worse forecasts than expected. Export milling wheat average price increased to $295/MT FOB Blac...

biofuel

Short Term Energy Outlook: Bullish Biodiesel

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO); the report projects biodiesel production for 2021 to remain at the same level as 2020, which unlike ethanol, was up from 2019. For 2022, biodiesel production is forecast to increase 15 percent over...

wheat biofuel farm-inputs

GMO Tipping Point; One-Way Ethanol; Opium or Food?

GMO Tipping Point They do not call it genetic modification because of all the negative baggage associated with the first wave of organisms modified to be better. The technologies that have evolved from originally inserting a gene into DNA instead have a trendier moniker, new genomic techniques...

biofuel

Long Term Ethanol Question: Electric Vehicles – Fact or Fantasy?

Last week, President Biden issued an executive order as part of his “Build Back Better” initiative that calls for targeting all vehicle sales to reach 50 percent electric vehicles by 2030. Specifically, setting the goal of “half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 zero-emissions...

soy-oilseeds biofuel energy

Ag Review - July 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the impacts of climate change, competition in the oilseeds market, the outlook of the meat industry, policies surrounding the Renewable Fuel Standards under the Biden Admin...

biofuel

E15 Legislation Proposed

As we previously reported (6 July), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration EPA’s decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales, and we noted that “biofuels groups have said that “every legal, regulatory and legislative option&...

biofuel feed-grains

Courts Deal Biofuels Another Blow – This Time on E15

The Courts have handed another blow to biofuel producers. On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration's EPA decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales. This comes on the heels of the Supreme Court ruling on the extension of SRE waivers...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed; DC Court Rules Against E15; Wheat Decouples from Corn

Note: The CBOT/CME markets are closed Monday, 5 July 2021 for the U.S. Independence Day holiday.  CBOT trade was expectedly quiet heading into the long U.S. holiday weekend and ended mixed for the day. Corn settled lower with profit taking and more renewable fuels policy drama while soybea...

biofuel wheat livestock

Ag Review - June 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the commodities boom, policies impacting the Renewable Fuel Standards, the Biden Administration's transatlantic agreements, the flour and egg markets as well as markets in...

biofuel

Supreme Court and SREs: Next Steps

As Gary Blumenthal reported on Friday, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, overruled the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on the EPA’s granting of small refinery exemptions (SREs) to meet the renewable fuel standard (RFS) volumes.  Recall that in January 2020, the 10...

biofuel

Waiting on the RVOs, EIA Forecast on Ethanol Blending

The market is still awaiting the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS. Rumors hit the market last week that the proposal was forthcoming. As of today, however, OMB does not have the proposal listed on its dashboard of regulations under review.   The Administration...

biofuel

RINs Rumors and Fuel Use Outlook

Ethanol RINs dropped this week on news reports that EPA might consider lowering the 15 billion gallon required volume obligation (RVO) for 2022. This came after two months of steady increases based on a bright outlook for retail motor fuel use this year. Recall on 7 December, the Administration...

biofuel

EPA Renewable Fuels Coming Regulations and Canola Trade

On 7 December, EPA announced its proposed required volume obligations (RVO) rules which gained much attention. What gained less attention was the regulatory agenda related to renewable fuels that it also announced in December.   The 2023 RVO’s, proposed this spring, will be the...

biofuel

Taking a Closer Look at a Few Details About the RVOs

There was a lot to sort through on Tuesday’s RVO announcement. Below is a look at some key issues.  SREs: There has been a lot of media coverage implying that the EPA will deny all pending small refinery exemption (SRE) requests. But as we wrote on 7 December, that action would be&nb...

biofuel

Retro RVOs May Disappoint, but 2022 RVO Bullish Corn and Veg Oil

EPA released its 2022 proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS along with the retroactive 2021 volumes and an adjustment to the 2020 volumes.   EPA is also proposing to add a 250-million-gallon “supplemental obligation” to the volumes proposed for 2022 and...

biofuel

Ethanol Starting Out Marketing Year Strong; Vilsack Says RVOs Coming

USDA released the October Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was up 16 percent from October 2020, and up 15 percent from September. Ethanol production in October was a record. For the first two months of the marketing year, ethanol use of corn is 876.83 million bushel...

biofuel energy

Delayed RVOs Leads to Pushing Back RFS Compliance Deadlines

Recently, WPI reported on the Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit hearing about the timeline for the required volume obligations (RVOs) from EPA. We noted that Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, informed EPA via a 2 November letter of its intent to file suit if...

biofuel energy

SPR Release Turns Out to be Bullish

President Biden ordered the release of 50 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ease gas prices. The release will be in the form of a 32-million-barrel exchange solicitation to be open for bids tomorrow and the accelerating of 18 million-barrel to be sold w...

biofuel

Where’s the RVO?

The House Agriculture Committee’s Subcommittee on Commodity Exchanges, Energy, and Credit held a hearing today on the “Renewable Economy in Rural America.”  Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, a biofuel trade association, mentioned in her testimony that “We are also a...

biofuel energy

October Ethanol Production a Blip Not a Trend According to EIA

Last week’s WASDE raised the outlook for corn used in ethanol production by 50 million bushels based on September data from USDA’s Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Lower in Consolidation, Profit Taking; Livestock Markets Rally

The CBOT ended lower Wednesday as profit taking and risk-off trade occurred ahead of next week’s WASDE report. World ag markets were overbought after months of rallies and needed to “cool off”. December Paris milling wheat futures were down €3/MT today and pulled back fro...

biofuel feed-grains

Bullish Ethanol Production

USDA released the September Grain Crushings report today; total corn use for fuel alcohol was down 2 percent from August, but up 1 percent from September 2020, starting the marketing year off in the right direction. Moreover, ethanol production for the week ending 22 October hit 1.106 million b...

biofuel

Private R&D Leads; Energy Confusion

Private R&D Leads Proponents of public sector agricultural R&D have typically touted the high rate of return on such investments and lamented that this spending category has been relatively flat for many years. This ignores that fact that private spending on agricultural R&D has bee...

energy biofuel

Actions Louder than Words; China Faces WTO

Actions Louder than Words The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released in August and the associated COP26 meeting begins at the end of October in Glasgow. Leaders gathered there will likely review the UN Environment Program’s released Product...

farm-inputs biofuel

High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs.    First, natural gas will continue pushing up nitrogen fertilizer prices. While there are a number of factors at play in fertil...

biofuel energy

Ongoing Biofuel Demand

The U.S. Energy Information Agency published its latest forecast for energy use through 2050 and it foresees no slackening in demand. Its projection for demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels only varies based on assumptions about economic growth and petroleum prices. This projection does...

biofuel energy

Ethanol Exports Up in August, but Still Missing Brazil

After dropping in July to the lowest level since October 2013, August ethanol exports shot back up in August, increasing about 55 percent. However, the August exports were still down about 17 percent from last year and from the previous five-year average for the month. Year-to-date exports (th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - September 2021

For 23 years, WPI’s monthly AgReview publication has provided in-depth analysis of markets and policy. Responding to changes in both business economics and clients’ needs, this will be our last edition. We will continue to include historical analysis with our successful daily Ag Per...

biofuel

Senator Grassley on RVOs: “Worst Week in Washington for Ethanol Ever”

There are more rumors circulating about potential cuts in the require volume obligations (RVOs) for biofuels. Those stories have certainly gained the attention of industry supporters on Capitol Hill, especially Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa).   There have been rumors for months that...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Dec 21 Corn closed at $5.2675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Wheat closed at $7.2375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close.  Nov 21 Soybeans closed at $12.85/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close.  Dec 21 Soymeal closed at $339/short ton, down $1.1 from...

biofuel

Will Biofuels Go Sky High in Taking to the Air?

The Biden Administration last week announced an effort to lower carbon emissions in aviation, targeting a 20 percent drop in aviation emissions by 2030 and the “potential for a fully zero-carbon aviation sector by 2050.” That would be 3 billion gallons annual use by 2030, and potent...

biofuel

Will Coming RVOs be a 2013-2016 Redux?

The 2021 and 2022 proposed RVOs, developed by EPA, have been under review at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for a week. As we reported last Friday, the proposal was sent from EPA for review last Thursday. What is in the proposal is still a mystery, however. That differs from last yea...

biofuel

RFS Volume Rule Under Review: Going Retro for 2020

We reported on Monday that the EPA would be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question was when? We now know the answer: yesterday. There has been...

biofuel energy

Biofuel Falters

U.S. biofuel makers are disappointed that U.S. EPA is not more aggressively pushing fuel blending, but their plight is consistent with the pandemic related faltering in global biofuel production. The International Energy Agency (EIA) says that 10 percent annual increases are needed in global bi...

energy biofuel

Ball of Confusion: Waiting on RFS Volumes

The EPA will be sending its 2022, and never finalized 2021, proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the renewable fuel standard to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. The question is: when? As of this morning, there is no record of the proposal being sent to OMB for f...

soy-oilseeds biofuel wheat

PM Post - Bears Own the Day

THE OPEN Nov beans:  18 lower Dec meal:  4.00 lower Dec soyoil:  96 pts lower Dec corn:  9 lower Dec wheat:  12 lower The markets opened as expected but weaker outside markets, bearish Pro Farmer Crop tour comments, and rains forecasted for the weekend took a toll on th...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds biofuel

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 9-13 August 2021 The domestic Russian grain market grew significantly in all regions of the European part of Russia (except for corn prices), mainly due to the USDA report with worse forecasts than expected. Export milling wheat average price increased to $295/MT FOB Blac...

biofuel

Short Term Energy Outlook: Bullish Biodiesel

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO); the report projects biodiesel production for 2021 to remain at the same level as 2020, which unlike ethanol, was up from 2019. For 2022, biodiesel production is forecast to increase 15 percent over...

wheat biofuel farm-inputs

GMO Tipping Point; One-Way Ethanol; Opium or Food?

GMO Tipping Point They do not call it genetic modification because of all the negative baggage associated with the first wave of organisms modified to be better. The technologies that have evolved from originally inserting a gene into DNA instead have a trendier moniker, new genomic techniques...

biofuel

Long Term Ethanol Question: Electric Vehicles – Fact or Fantasy?

Last week, President Biden issued an executive order as part of his “Build Back Better” initiative that calls for targeting all vehicle sales to reach 50 percent electric vehicles by 2030. Specifically, setting the goal of “half of all new vehicles sold in 2030 zero-emissions...

soy-oilseeds biofuel energy

Ag Review - July 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the impacts of climate change, competition in the oilseeds market, the outlook of the meat industry, policies surrounding the Renewable Fuel Standards under the Biden Admin...

biofuel

E15 Legislation Proposed

As we previously reported (6 July), the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration EPA’s decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales, and we noted that “biofuels groups have said that “every legal, regulatory and legislative option&...

biofuel feed-grains

Courts Deal Biofuels Another Blow – This Time on E15

The Courts have handed another blow to biofuel producers. On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit struck down the Trump Administration's EPA decision to provide a waiver for year-round E15 sales. This comes on the heels of the Supreme Court ruling on the extension of SRE waivers...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Ends Mixed; DC Court Rules Against E15; Wheat Decouples from Corn

Note: The CBOT/CME markets are closed Monday, 5 July 2021 for the U.S. Independence Day holiday.  CBOT trade was expectedly quiet heading into the long U.S. holiday weekend and ended mixed for the day. Corn settled lower with profit taking and more renewable fuels policy drama while soybea...

biofuel wheat livestock

Ag Review - June 2021

WPI's monthly publication features a review of the past month's market and policy analysis articles. This month we examine the commodities boom, policies impacting the Renewable Fuel Standards, the Biden Administration's transatlantic agreements, the flour and egg markets as well as markets in...

biofuel

Supreme Court and SREs: Next Steps

As Gary Blumenthal reported on Friday, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, overruled the 10th District Federal Court of Appeals decision on the EPA’s granting of small refinery exemptions (SREs) to meet the renewable fuel standard (RFS) volumes.  Recall that in January 2020, the 10...

biofuel

Waiting on the RVOs, EIA Forecast on Ethanol Blending

The market is still awaiting the proposed required volume obligations (RVO) under the RFS. Rumors hit the market last week that the proposal was forthcoming. As of today, however, OMB does not have the proposal listed on its dashboard of regulations under review.   The Administration...

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