Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Hogs and Pigs in China
As WPI reported last Thursday, the number of breeding sows on 1 March was 6.016 million head, down 2 percent from year ago levels. Part of that reduction is being offset by continued records in pigs per little, which in the December to February quarter reached 11.53 head. Herd culli...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
Market Commentary: Short Run Bulls Battle Long Run Bears
The CBOT is fighting a battle between improving short run technicals and bearish long run fundamentals, which is apt to keep the market choppy heading into planting season. Technical traders won Monday’s battle in the grains at least, with corn and wheat pushing higher and the latter scor...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
Market Commentary: Interesting Trade Despite Few WASDE Changes
The CBOT posted interesting developments on Friday, even while the March WASDE report failed to offer the same intrigue. The USDA’s latest look at U.S. and world supply and demand fundamentals was largely a “steady as she goes” affair with few significant changes. Despite the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Hail in India; Corn, Soy Turn Higher on Technical Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with unexpected hail and rain damage to India’s wheat crop lifting world wheat markets while corn and soybeans followed through on last week’s supportive technical trade. Funds were net buyers across the CBOT for the day despite holding a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is going through a challenging time in Argentina. The decline in prices, both in the local and export markets, has been constant over the last few months and has pushed values to levels that are very difficult for producers to absorb. Currently, in the local market, transactions are...
Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues as CBOT Contemplates Record Fund Short Position
Tuesday’s mood at the CBOT seemed to be one primarily of consolidation and mild short covering. Corn futures extended Monday’s key reversal but failed to make much upside progress while the soybean market settled lower after posting 16-cent gains in early trade. Wheat futures pushed...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Following the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, expectations for increased soybean demand from China were not met, resulting in a lower-than-anticipated purchase volume. There was still some activity, however, and last week Brazil saw movement for March...
More China Pork
As noted yesterday, China’s pork imports appear to have recently turned higher despite supposedly over-abundant and under-valued domestic supplies. In an article about the over-supply of pork in the U.S. market, the Wall Street Journal cited declining sales to China during the first 11 mo...
China’s Pork Dilemma
When African Swine Fever (ASW) struck China late last decade, animals were euthanized and actual swine numbers fell from their high by nearly 38 percent. Meanwhile, pork imports understandably rose dramatically to fill the void and consumer demand. Imports fell as the domestic herd recovered. D...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Market Commentary: A Day of New Numbers
It might have been a day of big surprises given the number of new crop estimates being issued around the world. Governments in China, Brazil, Canada, and the U.S. all issued new forecasts, but the overall changes were relatively small. The result was a mixed day in U.S. futures markets. Volume...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls on Early Selling; Wheat Continues Sideways March; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ag markets spent most of Tuesday preparing for the coming February WASDE report with funds and commercials adjusting positions. Wheat futures saw mild strength amid their relentless grid sideways while the soy complex found some upside traction in follow-through trade from Monday&rsquo...
Market Commentary: China Economic Worries Shake Grain Markets, Soybeans End Below $12, Corn at $4.40
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with commodity and macroeconomic markets under pressure from bearish economic news in China. Over the weekend, a court ordered China’s largest real estate developer, Evergrande, to liquidate amid the ongoing bankruptcy. That sent bearish ripples...
Market Commentary: China Approval of Argentine Wheat Snaps Futures’ Winning Streak; Livestock Rally Accelerates
Grain/oilseed and livestock markets are currently headed in diverging directions – with commodities involving plants and tractors falling while commodities eating said plants rallying sharply. Soybeans were the downside leader at the CBOT after the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the Arg...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on China Buying Rumors, Spring Acres Estimates; Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly higher at midweek with grains – particularly wheat – leading the rally. Market chatter suggests China has returned to the U.S. to book SRW wheat, though we cannot find confirmation of such trades yet. Even so, the words “China buying” will create a ra...
Market Commentary: CBOT Higher on Short Covering, Bull Spreading; Hogs Post Technical Rally
The CBOT finished higher for the day with traders increasingly engaging in bottom-picking and hopeful that last week saw the grain market develop its near-term and seasonal lows. Grain and oilseed markets started the day session with noted strength, but only soybeans, soymeal, and KC wheat coul...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Still Bouncing
Thursday saw the start of a “dead cat bounce” for many oversold CBOT futures contracts, and that trend continued Friday. Corn and wheat futures finished higher for the day but posted the gains on unconvincing volume and with little in the way of meaningful technical developments. Th...
China Pork and Beans
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reports that pork production increased 4.6 percent in 2023 to 57.94 MMT. This makes the fourth consecutive year of production increases since the trough of 2019 at the height of the African Swine Fever outbreak. Over 80 percent of soybeans in China ar...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. soybean price by 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents. Global soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Bread Baskets
Import dependence for food rankles most politicians since they have persistently fed a nationalistic feedback loop on the issue to their constituents. No one is demanding that their television sets be manufactured locally, but food is national security and others can’t be trusted. This is...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy and Macroeconomic Update There is discomfort among farmers in the Argentine countryside. The newly inaugurated Milei administration promised during its campaign measures that would favor producers, but for the moment is not fully keeping its word. Although the changes to the exchange rat...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Estimates of Argentina’s corn harvest continue to decrease, mainly due to the impact of Spiroplasma bacteria. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its estimate from 57 to 50.5 MMT, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange revised their’s from 52 to 49.5 MMT, marking the second conse...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA increased U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 340 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 49 cents per pound, respectively. Gl...
WASDE Corn
USDA increased the U.S. corn use for ethanol and feed – which reduced ending stocks 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks are estimated to be 318.3 million tons, are down 1.4 million from last mon...
WASDE Wheat
USDA raised U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2023/24 by 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10. The 2023/24 global wheat outlook this month is for smaller ending stocks, down 0.6 million metric tons to...
Hogs and Pigs in China
As WPI reported last Thursday, the number of breeding sows on 1 March was 6.016 million head, down 2 percent from year ago levels. Part of that reduction is being offset by continued records in pigs per little, which in the December to February quarter reached 11.53 head. Herd culli...
Market Commentary: Technical Trade Dominates on Quiet Fundamentals
The CBOT was mixed to end the week with scant, fresh fundamental news leading to more technically-oriented trade over the past few weeks. Wheat futures were the downside leader as deteriorating chart conditions and China’s recent cancellations of U.S. SRW export bookings weighed on trader...
Market Commentary: Short Run Bulls Battle Long Run Bears
The CBOT is fighting a battle between improving short run technicals and bearish long run fundamentals, which is apt to keep the market choppy heading into planting season. Technical traders won Monday’s battle in the grains at least, with corn and wheat pushing higher and the latter scor...
WASDE Soybeans
Soybeans: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023/24 is unchanged from February. The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 2023/24. The soybean oil price is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. Glo...
WASDE Corn
Corn: USDA’s March estimate is that 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from February. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global corn ending stocks are down 2.4 million to 319.6 million tons...
WASDE Wheat
Wheat: USDA’s March estimate is that U.S. ending stocks are increased 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average U.S. farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15. The global wheat ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million,...
Market Commentary: Interesting Trade Despite Few WASDE Changes
The CBOT posted interesting developments on Friday, even while the March WASDE report failed to offer the same intrigue. The USDA’s latest look at U.S. and world supply and demand fundamentals was largely a “steady as she goes” affair with few significant changes. Despite the...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 26 February–1 March 2024 Russian grain markets remained bearish following the global trend exports are the key driver. For several weeks in a row, Russian pea prices have climbed higher and higher and as long as there is no export duty for peas, this commodity will...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on Hail in India; Corn, Soy Turn Higher on Technical Buying
The CBOT was mostly higher to start the week with unexpected hail and rain damage to India’s wheat crop lifting world wheat markets while corn and soybeans followed through on last week’s supportive technical trade. Funds were net buyers across the CBOT for the day despite holding a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Wheat is going through a challenging time in Argentina. The decline in prices, both in the local and export markets, has been constant over the last few months and has pushed values to levels that are very difficult for producers to absorb. Currently, in the local market, transactions are...
Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues as CBOT Contemplates Record Fund Short Position
Tuesday’s mood at the CBOT seemed to be one primarily of consolidation and mild short covering. Corn futures extended Monday’s key reversal but failed to make much upside progress while the soybean market settled lower after posting 16-cent gains in early trade. Wheat futures pushed...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Soybeans Market Overview Following the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, expectations for increased soybean demand from China were not met, resulting in a lower-than-anticipated purchase volume. There was still some activity, however, and last week Brazil saw movement for March...
More China Pork
As noted yesterday, China’s pork imports appear to have recently turned higher despite supposedly over-abundant and under-valued domestic supplies. In an article about the over-supply of pork in the U.S. market, the Wall Street Journal cited declining sales to China during the first 11 mo...
China’s Pork Dilemma
When African Swine Fever (ASW) struck China late last decade, animals were euthanized and actual swine numbers fell from their high by nearly 38 percent. Meanwhile, pork imports understandably rose dramatically to fill the void and consumer demand. Imports fell as the domestic herd recovered. D...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA’s February estimate is for U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase by 35 million bushels to 315 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per sho...
WASDE Corn
USDA’s February estimate for U.S. corn ending stocks is increased 10 million bushels to 2.172 billion bushels. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is reduced 10 million bushels based on indicated usage to date. With no other use changes, the season-average corn price received by producers...
WASDE Wheat
USDA’s February estimate is for a slight increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 658 million for 2023/24. That is because food use is reduced 10 million bushels to 960 million, on lower wheat flour grinding - as indicated in the NASS Flour Milling Products report rel...
Market Commentary: A Day of New Numbers
It might have been a day of big surprises given the number of new crop estimates being issued around the world. Governments in China, Brazil, Canada, and the U.S. all issued new forecasts, but the overall changes were relatively small. The result was a mixed day in U.S. futures markets. Volume...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 29 January–2 February 2024 The market was bearish following global trends and huge stocks will continue putting pressure on the market. It is hard to figure out why the government would further increase export duties seeing that the global trend is bearish and expor...
Market Commentary: Corn Falls on Early Selling; Wheat Continues Sideways March; Cattle Extend Rally
The CBOT ag markets spent most of Tuesday preparing for the coming February WASDE report with funds and commercials adjusting positions. Wheat futures saw mild strength amid their relentless grid sideways while the soy complex found some upside traction in follow-through trade from Monday&rsquo...
Market Commentary: China Economic Worries Shake Grain Markets, Soybeans End Below $12, Corn at $4.40
The CBOT was mostly lower to start the week with commodity and macroeconomic markets under pressure from bearish economic news in China. Over the weekend, a court ordered China’s largest real estate developer, Evergrande, to liquidate amid the ongoing bankruptcy. That sent bearish ripples...
Market Commentary: China Approval of Argentine Wheat Snaps Futures’ Winning Streak; Livestock Rally Accelerates
Grain/oilseed and livestock markets are currently headed in diverging directions – with commodities involving plants and tractors falling while commodities eating said plants rallying sharply. Soybeans were the downside leader at the CBOT after the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the Arg...
Market Commentary: Wheat Rallies on China Buying Rumors, Spring Acres Estimates; Hogs Extend Gains
The CBOT was mostly higher at midweek with grains – particularly wheat – leading the rally. Market chatter suggests China has returned to the U.S. to book SRW wheat, though we cannot find confirmation of such trades yet. Even so, the words “China buying” will create a ra...
Market Commentary: CBOT Higher on Short Covering, Bull Spreading; Hogs Post Technical Rally
The CBOT finished higher for the day with traders increasingly engaging in bottom-picking and hopeful that last week saw the grain market develop its near-term and seasonal lows. Grain and oilseed markets started the day session with noted strength, but only soybeans, soymeal, and KC wheat coul...
Market Commentary: Dead Cat Still Bouncing
Thursday saw the start of a “dead cat bounce” for many oversold CBOT futures contracts, and that trend continued Friday. Corn and wheat futures finished higher for the day but posted the gains on unconvincing volume and with little in the way of meaningful technical developments. Th...
China Pork and Beans
China’s National Bureau of Statistics reports that pork production increased 4.6 percent in 2023 to 57.94 MMT. This makes the fourth consecutive year of production increases since the trough of 2019 at the height of the African Swine Fever outbreak. Over 80 percent of soybeans in China ar...
WASDE Soybeans
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. soybean price by 15 cents to $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents. Global soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to...
WASDE Corn
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of corn by 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels. U.S. corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay par...
WASDE Wheat
USDA reduced the 2023/24 season-average U.S. farm price of wheat by $0.10 lower to $7.20 per bushel. The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger ending stocks compared with last month. Global supplies are raised 3.6 million tons to 1,056.5 million. Increased stocks for Russia, Ukraine, a...
Bread Baskets
Import dependence for food rankles most politicians since they have persistently fed a nationalistic feedback loop on the issue to their constituents. No one is demanding that their television sets be manufactured locally, but food is national security and others can’t be trusted. This is...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 1–5 January 2024 Most of Russia’s regions have been celebrating the New Year holidays and the the Russian Orthodox Christmas resulting in a slowdown of grain shipping in the Black Sea. Previously signed contracts are being fulfilled and most likely there will...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Policy and Macroeconomic Update There is discomfort among farmers in the Argentine countryside. The newly inaugurated Milei administration promised during its campaign measures that would favor producers, but for the moment is not fully keeping its word. Although the changes to the exchange rat...