World Perspectives

Recent China Analysis

soy-oilseeds

Oilseeds Situation Update

Most of the current changes are on the supply side of the ledger. This week’s USDA WASDE has come and gone but its effects linger. The agency’s 7 percent increase in U.S. surplus soybeans stocks held more sway than its reduction in global carryover down to 95 MMT from the December e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Definitively Lower

The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...

livestock

Livestock Round-Up: WASDE Livestock Outlook

Last week we noted the impact of Omicron on slaughter rates; as of today, cattle slaughter is up about 1 percent, hog slaughter is down about 3.5 percent, both compared to the same period last week. Both are down considerably from last year, however. Cattle slaughter is running 3.7 percent belo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: WASDE Cuts S. American Crops, Raises U.S. Carry-Out; Report Whipsaws Soybeans

Today’s CBOT trade was all about the WASDE with markets trading quietly lower before the report’s noon ET release. The report, while mostly in-line with expectations, elicited a swift, selloff reaction from the markets after its release, as the USDA increased ending stocks for all t...

What’s in a Name; Going Industrial; New Analytical Approach

What’s in a Name Proponents of geographic indicators in Europe are upset that DG-Agri may be planning to hand over more regulatory oversight of the GI scheme to the EU’s Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO). GIs already carry intellectual property protection, but some fear the EUIPO...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean meal price is projected at $375 per short ton, up 45 dollars...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 10 million bushels to 350 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $12.60 per bushel, up 50 cents...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 47 million bushels to 1,540 million. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Reverses Course, Falls in December With pork prices continuing to remain well below their averages from a year ago, food costs on aggregate fell by 1.2 percent in December. That reverses course from November when food inflation climbed by 1.6 percent, the first upt...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 628 million.  The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.15. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spreads Reversed Ahead of WASDE; Livestock Futures Sharply Lower

CBTO trade on Monday was all about positioning for Wednesday’s WASDE report from USDA. Traders took out some of the weather premium that was bid into soybean and corn futures while they unwound long soy/corn versus wheat spreads. Position squaring and spread trade was dominant today with...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Wheat/Corn Trust The Argentine government is being creative in trying to control inflation rates. They are trying to control local wheat and corn prices by creating a “trust fund” for domestic market consumption. Exporters will have to contribute about $150 million...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rally on Technical and Index Fund Buying; Wheat Posts Chart Reversal

The CBOT turned higher heading into the weekend with soybeans and soymeal posting big rallies near mid-day. Soybeans and soymeal pushed above technical resistance and uncovered a wealth of buy-stops that carried the markets higher into the close. Market chatter suggests index funds started thei...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Situation Update

As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. The CFTC reports that speculators increased their net long positions in soybeans in the week to 4 January by 5,140 contracts to a total of 85,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Major Live Hog Companies Target Increased Capacity in 2022 Even with live hog prices down year-on-year by 54.8 percent and the corn-hog ratio in the dumpster, China’s “Pork Concept Companies” are pursuing market dominance. According to the latest corporate announceme...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Boisterous Day

The second trading day of the new year started modestly enough. Corn and soybeans were up a nickel, soymeal was in the hole. Then with a burst of volume corn quickly moved into double digit gains with soybeans subsequently bumped much higher. Wheat was more moderate with SRW even turning negati...

The State and Monopolies

The Biden Administration announced a $1 billion program to incentivize “independent processing capacity” in the meat industry. Noting the irony of U.S. policy concurrently criticizing state-driven enterprise in China, the major meat packers responded with some pointed questions: &bu...

Farm Bill Negotiations to Start Soon

House Agriculture Committee Chairman David Scott (D-Georgia) has indicated that negotiations for the farm bill will start in the very early weeks of 2022. Climate and nutrition programs will be the cornerstone of Scott’s and the Democrat Majority’s draft, but with a tenuous politica...

Greed versus Apathy

President Biden and his economic team attacked the U.S. meat industry this year for being greedy. Meanwhile, he has politely asked the oil industry to please produce more product so that gasoline prices fall. Note that Tyson’s stock price versus a year ago is down 4.7 percent while Exxon...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Tariff on Imported Pork Set to Rise to Help Domestic Industry Even with China’s national reproductive sow inventory falling to 43 million head in November, the fifth consecutive drop, officials remain concerned about excess supply. The Ministry of Finance announced this week tha...

BBB Blowback; Shoot the Messenger; Silver Lining

BBB Blowback Although word yesterday that U.S. Senator Joe Manchin’s rejection of President Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) Act appears to be local DC politics, it has international implications for U.S. agriculture. The bill was supposedly how the U.S. would meet the President&rsqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Export Quota Update Finally, the Argentine government implemented a so-called “new” system to control wheat and corn exports. The “new” system is, of course, aimed at preventing domestic shortages with the final objective of controlling inflation, which now exceeds 50 pe...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Test Resistance; South American Weather Threatens

The CBOT traded a mostly higher day with corn and soybeans pushing closer to major resistance at $6.00 and $13.00, respectively. Funds were net buyers and a handful of buy-stops were triggered in both the corn and soybean markets as futures passed technically significant levels. Wheat futures w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Sees First Uptick Since May After five consecutive months of declines, food prices in the aggregate rose by 1.6 percent on an annual basis in November. The primary drivers of the increase were fresh vegetables and eggs, which saw their average prices rise by 30.6 p...

Food Better Than Healthcare; Big Ag is Safe; Siloed Big Tech

Food Better Than Healthcare While the healthcare sector has been called a miracle for the way it has handled the pandemic, the food industry has been criticized and USDA has announced billions in grants to make it more “resilient.” Yet food remained completely available whereas hosp...

Next Trade War; Blaming Meat Industry; Taiwan Trouble

Next Trade War The EU Commission is moving forward on its goal of ensuring that constraints imposed on European producers will also be applied to imports. Those constraints may go beyond environment as one French official declared, “we have, in South America, countries that deforest, that...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Hogs, Wheat Rally After WASDE; Tight Supplies Spark Soymeal Strength

The CBOT ended mixed in two-sided trade on Friday with the lack of significant changes in Thursday’s WASDE leaving the markets somewhat directionless. Wheat futures showed perhaps the greatest strength as the market finished 8-9 cents higher after pushing to new selloff lows, thereby form...

GMO Debate Over; More China Calculations

GMO Debate Over Mark Twain may have said that a lie travels around the globe while the truth is putting on its shoes and the adage is truer today than ever before. There is also a maxim that the answer to misinformation is more information. Nobel Peace Prize winning journalist faults online soc...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

Soyoil: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for soyoil to average 65 cents per pound in the 2021/22 season. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

Soymeal: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for meal price to increased $5.00 to $330.00 per short ton...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. Soybean crush is unchanged but soybean oil production is raised on a higher extraction rate. Soybean oil used for biofuel for 2021/22 is unchanged at 11 billion pounds. The U.S. season-average on-farm soybean price is u...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

Corn: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.45 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,501.7 million. ...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for a small increase in U.S. ending stock because exports are lowered 20 million bushels. U.S. export prices are expected to remain elevated the rest of 2021/22 and diminish U.S. competitiveness. Projected 2021/22 U.S. ending stocks are raised 15 mi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: EPA Numbers Crater Soyoil; Export Fears Force Wheat Selloff; Corn, Soybeans Grind Higher

Wheat futures sank lower the day before the December WASDE on concerns that the USDA will cut its U.S. export forecast in the coming report. Certainly, the slow pace so far this year could justify such a move, and traders were taking risk off the table heading into the report. Similarly, the ma...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Muyuan’s Credit Default Sends Shockwave Through Industry Based on recent reports from the Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange (SHCPE), more than 30 of Muyuan’s subsidiaries have defaulted on their commercial paper obligations. The SHCPE, which is a national platform for the...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseeds Situation Update

Most of the current changes are on the supply side of the ledger. This week’s USDA WASDE has come and gone but its effects linger. The agency’s 7 percent increase in U.S. surplus soybeans stocks held more sway than its reduction in global carryover down to 95 MMT from the December e...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Definitively Lower

The market opened lower for grains and oilseeds and for most contracts that was the consistent direction of the day. The bearish tone of yesterday’s WASDE coupled with significant rain relief coming for South America prompted a shedding of the weather premium that had been building. ...

livestock

Livestock Round-Up: WASDE Livestock Outlook

Last week we noted the impact of Omicron on slaughter rates; as of today, cattle slaughter is up about 1 percent, hog slaughter is down about 3.5 percent, both compared to the same period last week. Both are down considerably from last year, however. Cattle slaughter is running 3.7 percent belo...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: WASDE Cuts S. American Crops, Raises U.S. Carry-Out; Report Whipsaws Soybeans

Today’s CBOT trade was all about the WASDE with markets trading quietly lower before the report’s noon ET release. The report, while mostly in-line with expectations, elicited a swift, selloff reaction from the markets after its release, as the USDA increased ending stocks for all t...

What’s in a Name; Going Industrial; New Analytical Approach

What’s in a Name Proponents of geographic indicators in Europe are upset that DG-Agri may be planning to hand over more regulatory oversight of the GI scheme to the EU’s Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO). GIs already carry intellectual property protection, but some fear the EUIPO...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

U.S. soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

U.S. soybean meal price is projected at $375 per short ton, up 45 dollars...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 10 million bushels to 350 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $12.60 per bushel, up 50 cents...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 47 million bushels to 1,540 million. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Reverses Course, Falls in December With pork prices continuing to remain well below their averages from a year ago, food costs on aggregate fell by 1.2 percent in December. That reverses course from November when food inflation climbed by 1.6 percent, the first upt...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 628 million.  The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.15. ...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Spreads Reversed Ahead of WASDE; Livestock Futures Sharply Lower

CBTO trade on Monday was all about positioning for Wednesday’s WASDE report from USDA. Traders took out some of the weather premium that was bid into soybean and corn futures while they unwound long soy/corn versus wheat spreads. Position squaring and spread trade was dominant today with...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina’s Wheat/Corn Trust The Argentine government is being creative in trying to control inflation rates. They are trying to control local wheat and corn prices by creating a “trust fund” for domestic market consumption. Exporters will have to contribute about $150 million...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Soybeans, Soymeal Rally on Technical and Index Fund Buying; Wheat Posts Chart Reversal

The CBOT turned higher heading into the weekend with soybeans and soymeal posting big rallies near mid-day. Soybeans and soymeal pushed above technical resistance and uncovered a wealth of buy-stops that carried the markets higher into the close. Market chatter suggests index funds started thei...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Situation Update

As the trading week closed out, the soy complex incurred another series of impressive gains largely driven by production uncertainties in South America. The CFTC reports that speculators increased their net long positions in soybeans in the week to 4 January by 5,140 contracts to a total of 85,...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Major Live Hog Companies Target Increased Capacity in 2022 Even with live hog prices down year-on-year by 54.8 percent and the corn-hog ratio in the dumpster, China’s “Pork Concept Companies” are pursuing market dominance. According to the latest corporate announceme...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Boisterous Day

The second trading day of the new year started modestly enough. Corn and soybeans were up a nickel, soymeal was in the hole. Then with a burst of volume corn quickly moved into double digit gains with soybeans subsequently bumped much higher. Wheat was more moderate with SRW even turning negati...

The State and Monopolies

The Biden Administration announced a $1 billion program to incentivize “independent processing capacity” in the meat industry. Noting the irony of U.S. policy concurrently criticizing state-driven enterprise in China, the major meat packers responded with some pointed questions: &bu...

Farm Bill Negotiations to Start Soon

House Agriculture Committee Chairman David Scott (D-Georgia) has indicated that negotiations for the farm bill will start in the very early weeks of 2022. Climate and nutrition programs will be the cornerstone of Scott’s and the Democrat Majority’s draft, but with a tenuous politica...

Greed versus Apathy

President Biden and his economic team attacked the U.S. meat industry this year for being greedy. Meanwhile, he has politely asked the oil industry to please produce more product so that gasoline prices fall. Note that Tyson’s stock price versus a year ago is down 4.7 percent while Exxon...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Tariff on Imported Pork Set to Rise to Help Domestic Industry Even with China’s national reproductive sow inventory falling to 43 million head in November, the fifth consecutive drop, officials remain concerned about excess supply. The Ministry of Finance announced this week tha...

BBB Blowback; Shoot the Messenger; Silver Lining

BBB Blowback Although word yesterday that U.S. Senator Joe Manchin’s rejection of President Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) Act appears to be local DC politics, it has international implications for U.S. agriculture. The bill was supposedly how the U.S. would meet the President&rsqu...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Export Quota Update Finally, the Argentine government implemented a so-called “new” system to control wheat and corn exports. The “new” system is, of course, aimed at preventing domestic shortages with the final objective of controlling inflation, which now exceeds 50 pe...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn, Soybeans Test Resistance; South American Weather Threatens

The CBOT traded a mostly higher day with corn and soybeans pushing closer to major resistance at $6.00 and $13.00, respectively. Funds were net buyers and a handful of buy-stops were triggered in both the corn and soybean markets as futures passed technically significant levels. Wheat futures w...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Macroeconomics Food Inflation Sees First Uptick Since May After five consecutive months of declines, food prices in the aggregate rose by 1.6 percent on an annual basis in November. The primary drivers of the increase were fresh vegetables and eggs, which saw their average prices rise by 30.6 p...

Food Better Than Healthcare; Big Ag is Safe; Siloed Big Tech

Food Better Than Healthcare While the healthcare sector has been called a miracle for the way it has handled the pandemic, the food industry has been criticized and USDA has announced billions in grants to make it more “resilient.” Yet food remained completely available whereas hosp...

Next Trade War; Blaming Meat Industry; Taiwan Trouble

Next Trade War The EU Commission is moving forward on its goal of ensuring that constraints imposed on European producers will also be applied to imports. Those constraints may go beyond environment as one French official declared, “we have, in South America, countries that deforest, that...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Hogs, Wheat Rally After WASDE; Tight Supplies Spark Soymeal Strength

The CBOT ended mixed in two-sided trade on Friday with the lack of significant changes in Thursday’s WASDE leaving the markets somewhat directionless. Wheat futures showed perhaps the greatest strength as the market finished 8-9 cents higher after pushing to new selloff lows, thereby form...

GMO Debate Over; More China Calculations

GMO Debate Over Mark Twain may have said that a lie travels around the globe while the truth is putting on its shoes and the adage is truer today than ever before. There is also a maxim that the answer to misinformation is more information. Nobel Peace Prize winning journalist faults online soc...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

Soyoil: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for soyoil to average 65 cents per pound in the 2021/22 season. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

Soymeal: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for meal price to increased $5.00 to $330.00 per short ton...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

Soybeans: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. Soybean crush is unchanged but soybean oil production is raised on a higher extraction rate. Soybean oil used for biofuel for 2021/22 is unchanged at 11 billion pounds. The U.S. season-average on-farm soybean price is u...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

Corn: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.45 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,501.7 million. ...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

WHEAT: USDA’s December 2021 estimate is for a small increase in U.S. ending stock because exports are lowered 20 million bushels. U.S. export prices are expected to remain elevated the rest of 2021/22 and diminish U.S. competitiveness. Projected 2021/22 U.S. ending stocks are raised 15 mi...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: EPA Numbers Crater Soyoil; Export Fears Force Wheat Selloff; Corn, Soybeans Grind Higher

Wheat futures sank lower the day before the December WASDE on concerns that the USDA will cut its U.S. export forecast in the coming report. Certainly, the slow pace so far this year could justify such a move, and traders were taking risk off the table heading into the report. Similarly, the ma...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

China In-Country Analysis

Livestock Muyuan’s Credit Default Sends Shockwave Through Industry Based on recent reports from the Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange (SHCPE), more than 30 of Muyuan’s subsidiaries have defaulted on their commercial paper obligations. The SHCPE, which is a national platform for the...

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