World Perspectives

Farm Inputs Recent Farm Inputs Analysis

feed-grains farm-inputs

AMLO Spits on U.S. Corn; Sovereign Right to EV’s; Green Fertilizer Dreams

AMLO Spits on U.S. Corn If there were any doubts in the U.S. government about Mexico’s intent about GMO corn, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador cleared up their unwarranted confusion. He said Mexico could not buy GMO corn because there is no evidence it is safe. In a Tru...

farm-inputs

Fertilizer: No Room for Error

There are a lot of uncertainties in the market and ranging from the political like the war, to the mundane such as weather. One variable front and center is fertilizer. It is both essential to crop production, and an environmental externality. The goal of reducing its use has come squarely conf...

farm-inputs

Fertilizer Crisis

Fortunately, Hurricane Ian did not adversely impact Florida’s production of phosphate for crop production, but nitrogen remains a major supply concern. This is especially true in Europe where limited natural gas supplies will be focused on winter heating needs and maintaining industrial o...

farm-inputs

South America’s Fertilizer Situation

Rabobank reports that fertilizer supplies will improve in 2023 with downward pressure on phosphate and potash prices, but nitrogen may see a 20-30 percent price hike. This is an important competitiveness factor for agricultural exporters. North and South America both have abundant supplies of p...

farm-inputs

Green Food Crisis; Geopolitical Collusion

Green Food Crisis Regardless of the war in Ukraine and a global food price shock, the EU is moving forward with its plan to cut by half the use of “risky” pesticides by 2030. The goal is to replace them with “safe and sustainable alternatives.” For some, it looks like ad...

farm-inputs

War on Energy and Food

While the price of Brent crude is up 12 percent since Friday, fertilizer has increased 33 percent. Fertilizer values are priced to energy but now seem to be outpacing it. Crop nutrients have been hit by a trifecta of higher energy input costs, soaring demand and low supplies. Agricultural commo...

farm-inputs

Getting Away with It; On Message, Out of Tune; Its Complicated

Getting Away with It The threats of sanctions did not deter Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and there is no reason to believe their implementation will now reverse the situation. The aggression has created much for the transatlantic alliance to ponder. First and foremost is China, wh...

farm-inputs

Eye on Weather for 2022 Considering Fertilizer Prices

There has been much discussion and focus on the weather conditions in South America, and Brazil in particular where it has been dry across the central and southern parts of the country. Heavy rains are also causing crop loss in some of the northern areas. The forecast is for more La Nina effect...

farm-inputs

Africa Already Green

When the EU and the African Union meet in February, Brussels will reportedly encourage the AU to adopt Europe’s Green Deal/Farm to Fork strategy in agriculture, which involves 50 percent reduction in the use of pesticides, plus a 20 percent reduction in fertilizer. Europe already uses 20...

farm-inputs

Changes in Chemical Usage

The U.S./Canada and Europe have increased pesticide usage only slightly over the past two decades whereas South America’s usage has grown by almost 120 percent. Africa’s pesticide usage in agriculture has grown by nearly 69 percent, but from a very small base. Asia is the dominant a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Worsening Food Prices

Key agricultural commodity prices have risen sharply over the past two years, some reaching their highest level in a decade (see graph below). Now the UN says that climate change could cause production to fall 30 percent at the same time food demand is forecast to rise by 50 percent. The cautio...

farm-inputs

No N, No GMO, No Food

Some environmentalists were aghast at the COP26 meeting when mega-billionaire and serial do-gooder Bill Gates described nitrogen fertilizer as “magical” and opined that, “to grow crops, you want tons of nitrogen.” They called nitrogen fertilizer a major cause of greenhou...

farm-inputs

Tech City on a Hill; Distance Warms Heart

Tech City on a Hill Some nationalistic political philosophers like to characterize the U.S. as a beacon of hope for democratic ideals and while some will say this has come to pass, it does offer hope to technologists. The proof was today’s House Agriculture Committee hearing on how to boo...

farm-inputs

Notable TFP Changes

U.S. Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack and EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be on the stage together next week at the Forum for the Future of Agriculture & Farm Europe. Mr. Vilsack has taken the position that increasing productivity is the pathway to sustainability...

farm-inputs biofuel

High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs.    First, natural gas will continue pushing up nitrogen fertilizer prices. While there are a number of factors at play in fertil...

farm-inputs

F2F Proxy; Rolling Inflation; Selective View of Tensions

F2F Proxy Greens in Europe have been downplaying the impact on production from reduced use of inputs, arguing that studies showing lower production are flawed. Whether the use of inputs like fertilizer are reduced due to government restrictions on use (F2F) or tempered by record high prices, th...

farm-inputs

Technical Views - Retrace Lower

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare trades at 45.0%.  Dec/March corn trades out to 8c from 7c, while Dec 21/22 trades from 23 1/2c carry to 20 3/4c.  Dec/March wheat carry trades from 10 1/2c to 11c.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.86 1/4c to 1.83c.  Nov/Jan bean...

farm-inputs feed-grains

Fertilizer Prices and Production

DTN reports that for the first time in about nine months there was no significant increase in fertilizer prices this past month. Among the eight major components, prices have risen between 36 percent to a 76 percent increase for MAP. Higher crop prices have meant higher farm revenue and increas...

wheat biofuel farm-inputs

GMO Tipping Point; One-Way Ethanol; Opium or Food?

GMO Tipping Point They do not call it genetic modification because of all the negative baggage associated with the first wave of organisms modified to be better. The technologies that have evolved from originally inserting a gene into DNA instead have a trendier moniker, new genomic techniques...

feed-grains livestock farm-inputs

EO “Attempts” Competitive Ag Economy

Much of the Biden Administration’s agriculture agenda was furthered today by an Executive Order (EO) issued from the White House while Secretary Vilsack was in Council Bluffs, Iowa, to tout the plan.  The order to Promote Competition in the American Economy is a broad reaching effort...

farm-inputs

CPTPP Appeal; Food Opponents; TRIPS for Free

CPTPP Appeal China’s aggressive effort to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) may be having an unintended effect – causing the U.S. to reconsider its previous rejection of such an agreement. If China were to join, which seems unlike...

farm-inputs wheat

AM Outlook - Overbought?

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board this morning as beans and soyoil place new contract highs for the week, continuing strong up-trends.  Crude oil is firmer, which underpins the soyoil market, though Asian values are a bit lower this AM.  Higher world vegoil markets in t...

farm-inputs

Exporting Water

The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...

farm-inputs

Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey

Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...

feed-grains farm-inputs

AMLO Spits on U.S. Corn; Sovereign Right to EV’s; Green Fertilizer Dreams

AMLO Spits on U.S. Corn If there were any doubts in the U.S. government about Mexico’s intent about GMO corn, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador cleared up their unwarranted confusion. He said Mexico could not buy GMO corn because there is no evidence it is safe. In a Tru...

farm-inputs

Fertilizer: No Room for Error

There are a lot of uncertainties in the market and ranging from the political like the war, to the mundane such as weather. One variable front and center is fertilizer. It is both essential to crop production, and an environmental externality. The goal of reducing its use has come squarely conf...

farm-inputs

Fertilizer Crisis

Fortunately, Hurricane Ian did not adversely impact Florida’s production of phosphate for crop production, but nitrogen remains a major supply concern. This is especially true in Europe where limited natural gas supplies will be focused on winter heating needs and maintaining industrial o...

farm-inputs

South America’s Fertilizer Situation

Rabobank reports that fertilizer supplies will improve in 2023 with downward pressure on phosphate and potash prices, but nitrogen may see a 20-30 percent price hike. This is an important competitiveness factor for agricultural exporters. North and South America both have abundant supplies of p...

farm-inputs

Green Food Crisis; Geopolitical Collusion

Green Food Crisis Regardless of the war in Ukraine and a global food price shock, the EU is moving forward with its plan to cut by half the use of “risky” pesticides by 2030. The goal is to replace them with “safe and sustainable alternatives.” For some, it looks like ad...

farm-inputs

War on Energy and Food

While the price of Brent crude is up 12 percent since Friday, fertilizer has increased 33 percent. Fertilizer values are priced to energy but now seem to be outpacing it. Crop nutrients have been hit by a trifecta of higher energy input costs, soaring demand and low supplies. Agricultural commo...

farm-inputs

Getting Away with It; On Message, Out of Tune; Its Complicated

Getting Away with It The threats of sanctions did not deter Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and there is no reason to believe their implementation will now reverse the situation. The aggression has created much for the transatlantic alliance to ponder. First and foremost is China, wh...

farm-inputs

Eye on Weather for 2022 Considering Fertilizer Prices

There has been much discussion and focus on the weather conditions in South America, and Brazil in particular where it has been dry across the central and southern parts of the country. Heavy rains are also causing crop loss in some of the northern areas. The forecast is for more La Nina effect...

farm-inputs

Africa Already Green

When the EU and the African Union meet in February, Brussels will reportedly encourage the AU to adopt Europe’s Green Deal/Farm to Fork strategy in agriculture, which involves 50 percent reduction in the use of pesticides, plus a 20 percent reduction in fertilizer. Europe already uses 20...

farm-inputs

Changes in Chemical Usage

The U.S./Canada and Europe have increased pesticide usage only slightly over the past two decades whereas South America’s usage has grown by almost 120 percent. Africa’s pesticide usage in agriculture has grown by nearly 69 percent, but from a very small base. Asia is the dominant a...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Worsening Food Prices

Key agricultural commodity prices have risen sharply over the past two years, some reaching their highest level in a decade (see graph below). Now the UN says that climate change could cause production to fall 30 percent at the same time food demand is forecast to rise by 50 percent. The cautio...

farm-inputs

No N, No GMO, No Food

Some environmentalists were aghast at the COP26 meeting when mega-billionaire and serial do-gooder Bill Gates described nitrogen fertilizer as “magical” and opined that, “to grow crops, you want tons of nitrogen.” They called nitrogen fertilizer a major cause of greenhou...

farm-inputs

Tech City on a Hill; Distance Warms Heart

Tech City on a Hill Some nationalistic political philosophers like to characterize the U.S. as a beacon of hope for democratic ideals and while some will say this has come to pass, it does offer hope to technologists. The proof was today’s House Agriculture Committee hearing on how to boo...

farm-inputs

Notable TFP Changes

U.S. Secretary for Agriculture Tom Vilsack and EU Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be on the stage together next week at the Forum for the Future of Agriculture & Farm Europe. Mr. Vilsack has taken the position that increasing productivity is the pathway to sustainability...

farm-inputs biofuel

High-Cost Energy/Ag Inputs Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its winter fuels outlook last week, forecasting rising prices for several key agricultural inputs.    First, natural gas will continue pushing up nitrogen fertilizer prices. While there are a number of factors at play in fertil...

farm-inputs

F2F Proxy; Rolling Inflation; Selective View of Tensions

F2F Proxy Greens in Europe have been downplaying the impact on production from reduced use of inputs, arguing that studies showing lower production are flawed. Whether the use of inputs like fertilizer are reduced due to government restrictions on use (F2F) or tempered by record high prices, th...

farm-inputs

Technical Views - Retrace Lower

SPREADS Dec crush trades to 88c/bu while oilshare trades at 45.0%.  Dec/March corn trades out to 8c from 7c, while Dec 21/22 trades from 23 1/2c carry to 20 3/4c.  Dec/March wheat carry trades from 10 1/2c to 11c.  Dec wheat/corn trades from 1.86 1/4c to 1.83c.  Nov/Jan bean...

farm-inputs feed-grains

Fertilizer Prices and Production

DTN reports that for the first time in about nine months there was no significant increase in fertilizer prices this past month. Among the eight major components, prices have risen between 36 percent to a 76 percent increase for MAP. Higher crop prices have meant higher farm revenue and increas...

wheat biofuel farm-inputs

GMO Tipping Point; One-Way Ethanol; Opium or Food?

GMO Tipping Point They do not call it genetic modification because of all the negative baggage associated with the first wave of organisms modified to be better. The technologies that have evolved from originally inserting a gene into DNA instead have a trendier moniker, new genomic techniques...

feed-grains livestock farm-inputs

EO “Attempts” Competitive Ag Economy

Much of the Biden Administration’s agriculture agenda was furthered today by an Executive Order (EO) issued from the White House while Secretary Vilsack was in Council Bluffs, Iowa, to tout the plan.  The order to Promote Competition in the American Economy is a broad reaching effort...

farm-inputs

CPTPP Appeal; Food Opponents; TRIPS for Free

CPTPP Appeal China’s aggressive effort to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) may be having an unintended effect – causing the U.S. to reconsider its previous rejection of such an agreement. If China were to join, which seems unlike...

farm-inputs wheat

AM Outlook - Overbought?

GOOD MORNING, Prices are higher across the board this morning as beans and soyoil place new contract highs for the week, continuing strong up-trends.  Crude oil is firmer, which underpins the soyoil market, though Asian values are a bit lower this AM.  Higher world vegoil markets in t...

farm-inputs

Exporting Water

The latest mantra from development specialists is concern about the future availability of water. It is an old topic but a durable one given the preciousness of the resource. Since 70 percent of the withdrawals of freshwater around the world are for agriculture, and 60 percent more food must be...

farm-inputs

Green on Black Equals Red; Fake Honey

Green Impact on Black Equals Red Activists in Europe are protesting against today’s “Black Friday” shopping extravaganza. They argue that the environmental externalities of consumerism will destroy the planet. This begs the question of whether commercial minimalism will destro...

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