World Perspectives

Recent India Analysis

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production are partly offset by higher sunflowerseed output. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU mainly on a low...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA reports for August 2019: Changes for 2018/19 include reduced soybean crush, reflecting lower domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 1.07 billion bushels, up 20 million. China’s soybean imports are lowered 2 million tons to 85 million reflecti...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA reports for August 2019: U.S. oilseed production is projected at 111.5 million tons, down 4.5 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, down 165 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area is forec...

A New Normal for U.S.-China Trade?

The modern U.S.-China trade relationship has always been strained. President George W. Bush addressed this challenge by bringing China into the WTO to force its compliance with global trading rules. However, that didn’t work. While two-way trade did grow significantly, so did China&r...

biofuel feed-grains

Focus on New Products/Markets

Brazil has the largest fleet of cars converted to use the highest blends of ethanol, and the government is reportedly debating whether to remove duties on imports of the U.S.-sourced fuel. As is usual in many countries, the agriculture ministry opposes such a move, but others in the government...

EU-Mercosur Wreck; No Indian Epiphany

EU-Mercosur Wreck EU leaders proudly announced a trade agreement with the Mercosur group of countries last month, but that is now in political jeopardy. Environmentalists have joined with farmers in opposing the plan. French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume says that his country will not p...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S.-China Trade Update; Monsoonal Effect on India’s Soy Crop; U.S. Soy Sales

Hope for Breakthrough in Next Week’s U.S.–China Negotiations It is now confirmed that USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will meet next Tuesday in Shanghai with top Chinese trade negotiators to continue discussions aimed at ending the ongoing trade dispute. According to...

feed-grains wheat livestock

Feeding the World

The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Higher Brazil Freight Rates; EU Rapeseed; India’s Monsoon Issue

Not Much Improvement in U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 11 July was another challenging one for the U.S. soy complex. However, soybean exports last week were the highest since the week ending 21 March 2019. The report indicated ne...

Barriers and Ag’s Future; Plurilateral Future

Barriers and Ag’s Future The Greens and other liberal groups in Europe have aligned their sights on turning European agriculture into a chemical-free, non-intensive industry. Rather than just attack from the European Parliament’s largest committee, the Environment Committee, they ha...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA Notes: Global oilseed exports for 2019/20 are projected at 175.0 million tons, down slightly from last month.  Global oilseed ending stocks for 2019/20 are reduced 10.7 million tons to 119.5 million, mainly on lower soybean stocks for the United States, Argentina, and Brazil.  Th...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA Notes: Soybean production for 2019/20 is projected at 3.845 billion bushels, down 305 million based on lower planted and harvested area in the June 28 Acreage report and on lower projected yields.  Harvested area, forecast at 79.3 million acres, is down 4.5 million from last month.&nb...

U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost; Varied GMO Approaches

U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost Junnosuke Kobara at Nikkei provides analysis showing that while Japanese farmers may be few in number, they have outsized influence when voting as a bloc. The analysis is important because there is an Upper House election in two weeks, and the Abe government is negotiat...

Taking Stock of the Political Risks Facing Agriculture

Markets, industries and companies are constantly exposed to political risk (i.e., the impact that changes in policies and regulations can have on profitability). Indeed, virtually every major company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) includes some comment or disc...

Legs of War; No Cigar

Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful but not definitive. Both sides are dug in deep and short of one side or the other (or both). As it incurs economic calamity, this war would...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA Reported: 2018/19 reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, and higher soybean oil ending stocks.  The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA Reported: 2018/19 increased soybean meal imports and exports. The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 per short ton, up 5 dollars...

Planes, Trains and Automobiles; Death by Duties; Life with Meat

Planes, Trains and Automobiles Part of the focus on China pertains to the extent that the government controls the means of commerce. It is pervasive to be sure with more than a third of all business activity there estimated to be under such control. However, China is not alone. Western governme...

Future of Trump Trade Policy; Iced Coffee

Future of Trump Trade Policy  The U.S. has lower tariffs and fewer nontariff barriers than most other countries. The theory of Trump trade policy has involved an eye for an eye – imposing tariffs to leverage more equitable treatment. It has not worked well. South Korea, Canada and Me...

Global Politics Weighs on Trade

Pundits are debating the impacts of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impressive reelection as well as the mood of his Bharatiya Janata Party. The question is whether the pre-election refusal to engage with the U.S. on stronger trade relations becomes a more permanent fixture. Even mo...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 May 2019 Prices on the domestic market either dropped or remained stable in RUB expression but increased for some crops in USD expression due to the stronger ruble. Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) and 2018 wheat grew to $184-187/MT FOB Bl...

China Forces Trump Hand; Global Readjustment; Turkey Signaling

China Forces Trump Hand He has tried to take on the world singlehandedly, but China’s resistance has forced President Trump to back off on his objectives elsewhere. Farmers, Republicans and the U.S. economy can only handle so much controversy at once. He was forced to end tariffs on steel...

wheat feed-grains

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 May 2019 Domestic prices were either stable or decreased moderately. Meanwhile, changes on the export market were more significant. Quotes for 2019 12.5 percent protein wheat were within $182-186/MT FOB Black Sea, which makes the current average price for 2018 wheat...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops.  Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA reports for August 2019: Global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, trade, and stocks compared to last month. Lower soybean, rapeseed, and peanut production are partly offset by higher sunflowerseed output. Rapeseed production is lowered for the EU mainly on a low...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA reports for August 2019: Changes for 2018/19 include reduced soybean crush, reflecting lower domestic use and exports of soybean meal. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 1.07 billion bushels, up 20 million. China’s soybean imports are lowered 2 million tons to 85 million reflecti...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA reports for August 2019: U.S. oilseed production is projected at 111.5 million tons, down 4.5 million from last month mainly due to a lower soybean production forecast. Soybean production is forecast at 3.68 billion bushels, down 165 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area is forec...

A New Normal for U.S.-China Trade?

The modern U.S.-China trade relationship has always been strained. President George W. Bush addressed this challenge by bringing China into the WTO to force its compliance with global trading rules. However, that didn’t work. While two-way trade did grow significantly, so did China&r...

biofuel feed-grains

Focus on New Products/Markets

Brazil has the largest fleet of cars converted to use the highest blends of ethanol, and the government is reportedly debating whether to remove duties on imports of the U.S.-sourced fuel. As is usual in many countries, the agriculture ministry opposes such a move, but others in the government...

EU-Mercosur Wreck; No Indian Epiphany

EU-Mercosur Wreck EU leaders proudly announced a trade agreement with the Mercosur group of countries last month, but that is now in political jeopardy. Environmentalists have joined with farmers in opposing the plan. French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume says that his country will not p...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S.-China Trade Update; Monsoonal Effect on India’s Soy Crop; U.S. Soy Sales

Hope for Breakthrough in Next Week’s U.S.–China Negotiations It is now confirmed that USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will meet next Tuesday in Shanghai with top Chinese trade negotiators to continue discussions aimed at ending the ongoing trade dispute. According to...

feed-grains wheat livestock

Feeding the World

The current global population is estimated to total around 7.5 billion. By most measures, the world creates or produces enough food to feed them all. In theory, the world’s food security has never been higher. Nevertheless, it is estimated that around 800 million people – more than...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Higher Brazil Freight Rates; EU Rapeseed; India’s Monsoon Issue

Not Much Improvement in U.S. Soy Export Sales Last Week Today’s USDA export sales report indicated the week ending 11 July was another challenging one for the U.S. soy complex. However, soybean exports last week were the highest since the week ending 21 March 2019. The report indicated ne...

Barriers and Ag’s Future; Plurilateral Future

Barriers and Ag’s Future The Greens and other liberal groups in Europe have aligned their sights on turning European agriculture into a chemical-free, non-intensive industry. Rather than just attack from the European Parliament’s largest committee, the Environment Committee, they ha...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA Notes: Global oilseed exports for 2019/20 are projected at 175.0 million tons, down slightly from last month.  Global oilseed ending stocks for 2019/20 are reduced 10.7 million tons to 119.5 million, mainly on lower soybean stocks for the United States, Argentina, and Brazil.  Th...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA Notes: Soybean production for 2019/20 is projected at 3.845 billion bushels, down 305 million based on lower planted and harvested area in the June 28 Acreage report and on lower projected yields.  Harvested area, forecast at 79.3 million acres, is down 4.5 million from last month.&nb...

U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost; Varied GMO Approaches

U.S.-Japan FTA Will Cost Junnosuke Kobara at Nikkei provides analysis showing that while Japanese farmers may be few in number, they have outsized influence when voting as a bloc. The analysis is important because there is an Upper House election in two weeks, and the Abe government is negotiat...

Taking Stock of the Political Risks Facing Agriculture

Markets, industries and companies are constantly exposed to political risk (i.e., the impact that changes in policies and regulations can have on profitability). Indeed, virtually every major company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) includes some comment or disc...

Legs of War; No Cigar

Legs of War The news that Presidents Trump and Xi plus their negotiators will have extended bilateral discussions around the G20 Summit was seen as hopeful but not definitive. Both sides are dug in deep and short of one side or the other (or both). As it incurs economic calamity, this war would...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

USDA Reported: 2018/19 reduced soybean oil used for biodiesel production, and higher soybean oil ending stocks.  The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 29.5 cents per pound. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soymeal

USDA Reported: 2018/19 increased soybean meal imports and exports. The 2019/20 season-average price for soybean meal prices are forecast at $295 per short ton, up 5 dollars...

Planes, Trains and Automobiles; Death by Duties; Life with Meat

Planes, Trains and Automobiles Part of the focus on China pertains to the extent that the government controls the means of commerce. It is pervasive to be sure with more than a third of all business activity there estimated to be under such control. However, China is not alone. Western governme...

Future of Trump Trade Policy; Iced Coffee

Future of Trump Trade Policy  The U.S. has lower tariffs and fewer nontariff barriers than most other countries. The theory of Trump trade policy has involved an eye for an eye – imposing tariffs to leverage more equitable treatment. It has not worked well. South Korea, Canada and Me...

Global Politics Weighs on Trade

Pundits are debating the impacts of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impressive reelection as well as the mood of his Bharatiya Janata Party. The question is whether the pre-election refusal to engage with the U.S. on stronger trade relations becomes a more permanent fixture. Even mo...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 13-17 May 2019 Prices on the domestic market either dropped or remained stable in RUB expression but increased for some crops in USD expression due to the stronger ruble. Export prices for 2019 wheat (12.5 percent protein content) and 2018 wheat grew to $184-187/MT FOB Bl...

China Forces Trump Hand; Global Readjustment; Turkey Signaling

China Forces Trump Hand He has tried to take on the world singlehandedly, but China’s resistance has forced President Trump to back off on his objectives elsewhere. Farmers, Republicans and the U.S. economy can only handle so much controversy at once. He was forced to end tariffs on steel...

wheat feed-grains

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 May 2019 Domestic prices were either stable or decreased moderately. Meanwhile, changes on the export market were more significant. Quotes for 2019 12.5 percent protein wheat were within $182-186/MT FOB Black Sea, which makes the current average price for 2018 wheat...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops.  Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...

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