World Perspectives

Recent India Analysis

China Forces Trump Hand; Global Readjustment; Turkey Signaling

China Forces Trump Hand He has tried to take on the world singlehandedly, but China’s resistance has forced President Trump to back off on his objectives elsewhere. Farmers, Republicans and the U.S. economy can only handle so much controversy at once. He was forced to end tariffs on steel...

wheat feed-grains

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 May 2019 Domestic prices were either stable or decreased moderately. Meanwhile, changes on the export market were more significant. Quotes for 2019 12.5 percent protein wheat were within $182-186/MT FOB Black Sea, which makes the current average price for 2018 wheat...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops.  Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA Notes: The 2019/20 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and slightly lower ending stocks compared to 2018/19.  The soybean crop is projected at 4,150 million bushels, down 394 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yie...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 April-3 May 2019 There were only two working days during the week in review, but prices mostly followed a downward trend during that period. The average milling wheat export price fell to $210/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price declined to $187/MT CPT-Bla...

India’s Water; Politicized Trade; Trade Negotiation Outcomes

India’s Water India is still hoping to hold the Trump administration from removing it from eligibility for lower tariffs under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The latest message from New Delhi is that the government is looking at increasing imports from the U.S. to reduce its...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: China-Canada Dispute; India’s Planting Intentions; Brazilian Truck Freight Rates

China Expanding Blockage of Imports from Canada It appears that China has raised the pressure on Canada to release the Huawei Technologies CFO. After she was arrested at the request of the U.S., the Chinese government began rejecting shipments of Canadian canola, ostensibly because of phytosani...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Low Argentine Soy Protein; Bearish Soybeans

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights U.S. export sales of soybeans and soymeal were up in the week ending 18 April, but soyoil sales and exports declined from the previous week. Net soybean export sales for 2018/19 shipment totaled 596,300 MT, mainly to unknown destinations (230,700 MT), China (212...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 April 2019 While grain prices on the domestic market mostly dropped in RUB expression, they grew slightly in USD expression due to the strengthening of the ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat sea export price fell to $222/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase price...

Polarized WTO; Nonautomatic Market Economy; Free Trade Diversion

Polarized WTO It is not just politics in the U.S. and Europe that are polarized – so is the global trading system. India plans to host developing country members of the WTO at a meeting next week in New Delhi to discuss how to boost their advantage in the organization. India and others co...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Indian Palm Oil Tariffs; Canadian Canola; India’s Feed Sector

India’s Vegoil Refiners Push Lower Tariff Rates for Crude Palm Oil The Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India is pushing the government to lower the import tariff on crude palm oil to prevent further damaging of the domestic vegoil refining sector. The request is a result of surgin...

Can’t Walk the Talk; Limited Policy Options; On the Other Foot

Can’t Walk the Talk German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, and he is advising “all parties” to avoid any escalation in trade tensions. Herr Scholz is no doubt concerned that the Germ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

Soybean oil changes include increased imports and domestic disappearance for biodiesel and for food use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean oil price is projected at 28.0 to 30.0 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybean

USDA estimates that U.S. soybean supply and use changes in the April WASDE include lower imports, higher seed use, and lower ending stocks. With soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 895 million bushels, down 5 million.  The 2018/19 global oilseed supply and d...

Policy Opportunities and Risks

Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its seventh “World Happiness Report,” and the OECD issued a first “Risks that Matter” tome. The volumes rely heavily on...

Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts

Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations may be headed for an even deeper depression. The European Parliament voted against endorsing the trade mandate sought by Brussels for talks...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybeans; U.S. Census Soymeal Data Revision; U.S. Soy Plantings; WASDE Soy Changes

Conab Reduces Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today reduced its estimate for the country’s 2019 soybean crop by 1.6 percent from 115.343 MMT to 113.459 MMT. This change is based on an average yield of 3.168 MT/hectare (47.1 bushels/acre). Conab al...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

According to USDA: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report.  With exports unchanged, soybean stocks are projected at 900 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.  The season-average s...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

According to USDA:  This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks.  Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products...

India Doubles Down; Too Green

India Doubles Down Brazil and Australia have requested WTO dispute consultations with New Delhi, charging that India’s sugar subsidies exceed its commitment on domestic supports. The case follows a similar challenge by the U.S. on other crops. The reaction from the Modi government is to a...

Communist Marketing; GSP Retaliation; Limits on Trade Growth; IT Fight

Communist Marketing Russian Federal Customs Service official Rusian Davydov says he wants to extend the 2014 food embargo restriction to include meat and other livestock products from the U.S., EU and other countries. Meanwhile, his boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin, told the Federal Assem...

Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss

Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The U.S. grants preferential tariff access under GSP to more than 100 countries. Removing Turkey’s eligibility is consistent...

soy-oilseeds

Soybean Sector Needs New Driver of Global Demand Growth

The main driver of both soybean import demand and soymeal consumption since 2000/01 has been China. Because of the recent trade dispute with the U.S. and other factors, however, that country is unlikely to be such a dominant factor in the global soy sector. As a result, other key markets must b...

Transatlantic Jostling; USMCA Campaign; Rebalancing Global Contributions

Transatlantic Jostling The Trump administration’s move to tighten sanctions on Cuba concurrently is aimed at Europe. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton has proclaimed measures against a “Troika of Tyranny”- Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, Cuba is a more certain...

China Forces Trump Hand; Global Readjustment; Turkey Signaling

China Forces Trump Hand He has tried to take on the world singlehandedly, but China’s resistance has forced President Trump to back off on his objectives elsewhere. Farmers, Republicans and the U.S. economy can only handle so much controversy at once. He was forced to end tariffs on steel...

wheat feed-grains

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 6-10 May 2019 Domestic prices were either stable or decreased moderately. Meanwhile, changes on the export market were more significant. Quotes for 2019 12.5 percent protein wheat were within $182-186/MT FOB Black Sea, which makes the current average price for 2018 wheat...

wheat

WASDE Wheat

USDA Notes: The first 2019 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast indicated larger Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting smaller Soft Red Winter and White Wheat crops.  Total 2019/20 domestic use is projected up 5 percent with increases in all usage categories. ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

USDA Notes: The 2019/20 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and slightly lower ending stocks compared to 2018/19.  The soybean crop is projected at 4,150 million bushels, down 394 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yie...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 29 April-3 May 2019 There were only two working days during the week in review, but prices mostly followed a downward trend during that period. The average milling wheat export price fell to $210/MT FOB Black Sea, and the average purchase price declined to $187/MT CPT-Bla...

India’s Water; Politicized Trade; Trade Negotiation Outcomes

India’s Water India is still hoping to hold the Trump administration from removing it from eligibility for lower tariffs under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The latest message from New Delhi is that the government is looking at increasing imports from the U.S. to reduce its...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: China-Canada Dispute; India’s Planting Intentions; Brazilian Truck Freight Rates

China Expanding Blockage of Imports from Canada It appears that China has raised the pressure on Canada to release the Huawei Technologies CFO. After she was arrested at the request of the U.S., the Chinese government began rejecting shipments of Canadian canola, ostensibly because of phytosani...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Export Sales; Low Argentine Soy Protein; Bearish Soybeans

U.S. Soy Export Sales Highlights U.S. export sales of soybeans and soymeal were up in the week ending 18 April, but soyoil sales and exports declined from the previous week. Net soybean export sales for 2018/19 shipment totaled 596,300 MT, mainly to unknown destinations (230,700 MT), China (212...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 15-19 April 2019 While grain prices on the domestic market mostly dropped in RUB expression, they grew slightly in USD expression due to the strengthening of the ruble. Meanwhile, the average milling wheat sea export price fell to $222/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase price...

Polarized WTO; Nonautomatic Market Economy; Free Trade Diversion

Polarized WTO It is not just politics in the U.S. and Europe that are polarized – so is the global trading system. India plans to host developing country members of the WTO at a meeting next week in New Delhi to discuss how to boost their advantage in the organization. India and others co...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Indian Palm Oil Tariffs; Canadian Canola; India’s Feed Sector

India’s Vegoil Refiners Push Lower Tariff Rates for Crude Palm Oil The Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India is pushing the government to lower the import tariff on crude palm oil to prevent further damaging of the domestic vegoil refining sector. The request is a result of surgin...

Can’t Walk the Talk; Limited Policy Options; On the Other Foot

Can’t Walk the Talk German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, and he is advising “all parties” to avoid any escalation in trade tensions. Herr Scholz is no doubt concerned that the Germ...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soyoil

Soybean oil changes include increased imports and domestic disappearance for biodiesel and for food use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean oil price is projected at 28.0 to 30.0 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybean

USDA estimates that U.S. soybean supply and use changes in the April WASDE include lower imports, higher seed use, and lower ending stocks. With soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 895 million bushels, down 5 million.  The 2018/19 global oilseed supply and d...

Policy Opportunities and Risks

Two new reports out this week present government policymakers with informative but confusing insights on public perceptions. The United Nations issued its seventh “World Happiness Report,” and the OECD issued a first “Risks that Matter” tome. The volumes rely heavily on...

Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts

Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations may be headed for an even deeper depression. The European Parliament voted against endorsing the trade mandate sought by Brussels for talks...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybeans; U.S. Census Soymeal Data Revision; U.S. Soy Plantings; WASDE Soy Changes

Conab Reduces Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today reduced its estimate for the country’s 2019 soybean crop by 1.6 percent from 115.343 MMT to 113.459 MMT. This change is based on an average yield of 3.168 MT/hectare (47.1 bushels/acre). Conab al...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

According to USDA: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report.  With exports unchanged, soybean stocks are projected at 900 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.  The season-average s...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

According to USDA:  This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks.  Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products...

India Doubles Down; Too Green

India Doubles Down Brazil and Australia have requested WTO dispute consultations with New Delhi, charging that India’s sugar subsidies exceed its commitment on domestic supports. The case follows a similar challenge by the U.S. on other crops. The reaction from the Modi government is to a...

Communist Marketing; GSP Retaliation; Limits on Trade Growth; IT Fight

Communist Marketing Russian Federal Customs Service official Rusian Davydov says he wants to extend the 2014 food embargo restriction to include meat and other livestock products from the U.S., EU and other countries. Meanwhile, his boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin, told the Federal Assem...

Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss

Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The U.S. grants preferential tariff access under GSP to more than 100 countries. Removing Turkey’s eligibility is consistent...

soy-oilseeds

Soybean Sector Needs New Driver of Global Demand Growth

The main driver of both soybean import demand and soymeal consumption since 2000/01 has been China. Because of the recent trade dispute with the U.S. and other factors, however, that country is unlikely to be such a dominant factor in the global soy sector. As a result, other key markets must b...

Transatlantic Jostling; USMCA Campaign; Rebalancing Global Contributions

Transatlantic Jostling The Trump administration’s move to tighten sanctions on Cuba concurrently is aimed at Europe. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton has proclaimed measures against a “Troika of Tyranny”- Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, Cuba is a more certain...

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