World Perspectives

Recent India Analysis

Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts

Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations may be headed for an even deeper depression. The European Parliament voted against endorsing the trade mandate sought by Brussels for talks...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybeans; U.S. Census Soymeal Data Revision; U.S. Soy Plantings; WASDE Soy Changes

Conab Reduces Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today reduced its estimate for the country’s 2019 soybean crop by 1.6 percent from 115.343 MMT to 113.459 MMT. This change is based on an average yield of 3.168 MT/hectare (47.1 bushels/acre). Conab al...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

According to USDA: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report.  With exports unchanged, soybean stocks are projected at 900 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.  The season-average s...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

According to USDA:  This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks.  Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products...

India Doubles Down; Too Green

India Doubles Down Brazil and Australia have requested WTO dispute consultations with New Delhi, charging that India’s sugar subsidies exceed its commitment on domestic supports. The case follows a similar challenge by the U.S. on other crops. The reaction from the Modi government is to a...

Communist Marketing; GSP Retaliation; Limits on Trade Growth; IT Fight

Communist Marketing Russian Federal Customs Service official Rusian Davydov says he wants to extend the 2014 food embargo restriction to include meat and other livestock products from the U.S., EU and other countries. Meanwhile, his boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin, told the Federal Assem...

Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss

Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The U.S. grants preferential tariff access under GSP to more than 100 countries. Removing Turkey’s eligibility is consistent...

soy-oilseeds

Soybean Sector Needs New Driver of Global Demand Growth

The main driver of both soybean import demand and soymeal consumption since 2000/01 has been China. Because of the recent trade dispute with the U.S. and other factors, however, that country is unlikely to be such a dominant factor in the global soy sector. As a result, other key markets must b...

Transatlantic Jostling; USMCA Campaign; Rebalancing Global Contributions

Transatlantic Jostling The Trump administration’s move to tighten sanctions on Cuba concurrently is aimed at Europe. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton has proclaimed measures against a “Troika of Tyranny”- Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, Cuba is a more certain...

biofuel

E15; Biodiesel Credit; Tariff Checks and Balances

There’s been a spate of activity on Capitol Hill of late on some high-profile ag policy issues. Below is an end-of-the week recap. E15 Waiver In testimony before the House Ag Committee, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue suggested that EPA was unlikely to finish the waiver for year-round E15 use...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - February 2019

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performanc...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 February 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated insignificantly, but the average milling wheat export price dropped $6/MT to $236/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices fell to $207-209/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley export price decreased to $221/MT F...

softs soy-oilseeds wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...

Indo-American Trade War; Sino-American Impacts; Cars and Soybeans

Indo-American Trade War Unlike many other governments, New Delhi had been holding off on counterretaliation against the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. The fear was that such a response would further inflame Washington’s threat of withdrawing Genera...

soy-oilseeds softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean production at 13.459 MMT, the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) projects the total at 11.483 MMT, a difference of 1.976 MMT. Per available detai...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Soy Sector

Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private analysts are now at least 12 MMT below earlier forecasts of around 125 MMT, and some have it much smaller than that. USDA’s estimate of...

softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...

soy-oilseeds biofuel

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; Bayer Rapeseed; U.S. Biodiesel; Indian Protein

U.S. Soy Export Sales Update USDA announced yesterday that exporters had sold an additional 586,000 MT of soybeans to China with all but 63,000 MT to be shipped in the current marketing year. This brought total reported soybean sales to China since its delegation last visited Washington to 3.80...

livestock feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Poultry Sector Suffering Severe Losses; Imported Chicken Cheaper As a follow-up to the issue of rising feed prices that was discussed in the 11 January report (click here), the poultry sector’s margins continue to fall with the cost of production up at least 7.5 percent due to those price...

softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user industry (starch and poultry) asked the government of India (GOI) to allow imports. Prices continued to rise at that time, reaching $266/MT at o...

softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports   India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rapeseed-Mustard Prices Crash as Hopes of Exporting to China Vanish As relations between the U.S. and China thawed and a 90-day truce was called, all hopes of India exporting rapeseed-mustard meal and soymeal to the latter vanished. China was back in the market for U.S. soybeans. It did make st...

Drowning Transatlantic; Geneva Ag Discussions; Bilateral Stunts

Drowning Transatlantic At 8.4 kilometers (5.2 miles) deep, the Puerto Rico Trench is the deepest point in the North Atlantic Ocean. Transatlantic relations may be headed for an even deeper depression. The European Parliament voted against endorsing the trade mandate sought by Brussels for talks...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil’s Soybeans; U.S. Census Soymeal Data Revision; U.S. Soy Plantings; WASDE Soy Changes

Conab Reduces Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Conab, Brazil’s crop supply agency, today reduced its estimate for the country’s 2019 soybean crop by 1.6 percent from 115.343 MMT to 113.459 MMT. This change is based on an average yield of 3.168 MT/hectare (47.1 bushels/acre). Conab al...

soy-oilseeds

WASDE Soybeans

According to USDA: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2018/19 include higher crush and lower ending stocks compared with last month’s report.  With exports unchanged, soybean stocks are projected at 900 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.  The season-average s...

feed-grains

WASDE Corn

According to USDA:  This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol, reduced exports, and larger stocks.  Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products...

India Doubles Down; Too Green

India Doubles Down Brazil and Australia have requested WTO dispute consultations with New Delhi, charging that India’s sugar subsidies exceed its commitment on domestic supports. The case follows a similar challenge by the U.S. on other crops. The reaction from the Modi government is to a...

Communist Marketing; GSP Retaliation; Limits on Trade Growth; IT Fight

Communist Marketing Russian Federal Customs Service official Rusian Davydov says he wants to extend the 2014 food embargo restriction to include meat and other livestock products from the U.S., EU and other countries. Meanwhile, his boss, Russian President Vladimir Putin, told the Federal Assem...

Leveraging Tariffs; China Rationale; Nobody Listens; Leadership Loss

Leveraging Tariffs President Trump announced the expected by saying India and Turkey will lose beneficiary status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). The U.S. grants preferential tariff access under GSP to more than 100 countries. Removing Turkey’s eligibility is consistent...

soy-oilseeds

Soybean Sector Needs New Driver of Global Demand Growth

The main driver of both soybean import demand and soymeal consumption since 2000/01 has been China. Because of the recent trade dispute with the U.S. and other factors, however, that country is unlikely to be such a dominant factor in the global soy sector. As a result, other key markets must b...

Transatlantic Jostling; USMCA Campaign; Rebalancing Global Contributions

Transatlantic Jostling The Trump administration’s move to tighten sanctions on Cuba concurrently is aimed at Europe. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton has proclaimed measures against a “Troika of Tyranny”- Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, Cuba is a more certain...

biofuel

E15; Biodiesel Credit; Tariff Checks and Balances

There’s been a spate of activity on Capitol Hill of late on some high-profile ag policy issues. Below is an end-of-the week recap. E15 Waiver In testimony before the House Ag Committee, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue suggested that EPA was unlikely to finish the waiver for year-round E15 use...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Ag Review - February 2019

WPI's monthly publication features analyses of U.S. agribusinesses, the U.S. farm equipment industry, the U.S. meat and livestock industry, the global outlook for farm inputs, and policy trends. It also provides a review of agribusiness stock prices along with expectations for future performanc...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Grain Markets: 18-22 February 2019 Domestic grain prices fluctuated insignificantly, but the average milling wheat export price dropped $6/MT to $236/MT FOB Black Sea, and purchase prices fell to $207-209/MT CPT-Black Sea port. The average feed barley export price decreased to $221/MT F...

softs soy-oilseeds wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...

Indo-American Trade War; Sino-American Impacts; Cars and Soybeans

Indo-American Trade War Unlike many other governments, New Delhi had been holding off on counterretaliation against the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. The fear was that such a response would further inflame Washington’s threat of withdrawing Genera...

soy-oilseeds softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean production at 13.459 MMT, the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) projects the total at 11.483 MMT, a difference of 1.976 MMT. Per available detai...

soy-oilseeds

Oilseed Highlights: Brazil Soy Crop; WASDE Changes for Soy Sector

Brazil Soy Crop Keeps Declining The size of the Brazilian soybean crop seems to decline with each passing week. Most estimates by government and private analysts are now at least 12 MMT below earlier forecasts of around 125 MMT, and some have it much smaller than that. USDA’s estimate of...

softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...

soy-oilseeds biofuel

Oilseed Highlights: U.S. Soy Sales; Bayer Rapeseed; U.S. Biodiesel; Indian Protein

U.S. Soy Export Sales Update USDA announced yesterday that exporters had sold an additional 586,000 MT of soybeans to China with all but 63,000 MT to be shipped in the current marketing year. This brought total reported soybean sales to China since its delegation last visited Washington to 3.80...

livestock feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Poultry Sector Suffering Severe Losses; Imported Chicken Cheaper As a follow-up to the issue of rising feed prices that was discussed in the 11 January report (click here), the poultry sector’s margins continue to fall with the cost of production up at least 7.5 percent due to those price...

softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds livestock

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pest-Damaged Crop and No Imports Driving Corn Prices After the spot market price of corn in India touched $255/MT in early December 2018, the end user industry (starch and poultry) asked the government of India (GOI) to allow imports. Prices continued to rise at that time, reaching $266/MT at o...

softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports   India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rapeseed-Mustard Prices Crash as Hopes of Exporting to China Vanish As relations between the U.S. and China thawed and a 90-day truce was called, all hopes of India exporting rapeseed-mustard meal and soymeal to the latter vanished. China was back in the market for U.S. soybeans. It did make st...

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