Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Contract on More Pre-WASDE Positioning
Grain futures continue to retreat from their recent rally highs with traders unwilling to overextend risks heading into Friday’s WASDE report. The WASDE should be supportive old crop futures from cuts to the Brazilian and Argentine crops, but new crop futures could see pressure from expec...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.34/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.2775/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $378.5/short ton, down $4...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 8 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 3 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk freight markets continue to struggle as there is over capacity for several vessels classes and a lack of meaningful cargo demand improvement. Vessel owners and market players remain optimistic, however, that rates will rally in LH...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 8 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 3 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk freight markets continue to struggle as there is over capacity for several vessels classes and a lack of meaningful cargo demand improvement. Vessel owners and market players remain optimistic, however, that rates will rally in LH...
Market Commentary: Traders Pause CBOT Rally While Eyeing WASDE
The grain market fundamentals didn’t change much from Monday to Tuesday, but traders largely suspended their short-covering or long-positioning efforts as they looked ahead to the May WASDE. The report will be issued this Friday and will include USDA’s first projections for MY 2024/...
Beef Supply Overview
The March data for beef exports at 256.108 million pounds showed a drop in volume of 10.4 percent from March 2023, but posted the highest volume of Q1. Export value was down 0.3 percent, or effectively flat, from 2023, but was the highest in nine months. For Q1 2024, volume was 311,865 MT, down...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4275/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.465/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $383.2/short ton, down $4.4...
Remake Agriculture for the Climate; Counter-Notifying India; Plurilateral Path
Remake Agriculture for the Climate The World Bank has issued a report on achieving net zero emissions in the agrifood system (Recipe for a Livable Planet) that cites the sector for being a big emitter, but also one that can achieve reductions at a relatively low-cost. It makes the usual recomme...
Market Commentary: Bulls Are Running Again
Bulls remain firmly in charge of CBOT ag trade with weather concerns seemingly around the world prompting short covering and fresh long buying. Wheat and soybeans were the upside leaders at the CBOT once again as these two commodities hold the most bullish weather implications. Corn was largely...
Having Cake and Eat it Too; Philippine Opportunity
Having Cake and Eat it Too The U.S. is a major food exporter and its sales to India are relatively small and steady due to the border measures it encounters. By contrast, India demands the right to high border measures due to it being a poor country with food insecurity, despite the fact it exp...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 6 May)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Geographic Food Price Differences
Eastern European countries were upset a few years ago when it was discovered that food marketers were retailing lower quality foods in their region of Europe versus countries in the west. Price was not discussed but that differentiation would have followed willingness to pay and the fact that m...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4875/bushel, up $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.4875/bushel, up $0.3375 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $387.6/short ton, up $15.4 fr...
House-Senate Ag Leader Talks on Farm Bill This Week; SNAP Will be an Issue
Both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees have released broad outlines that will underpin the two panels’ drafts of the farm bill. Reports from Capitol Hill are that the two committee chairs, Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) and Representative Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) wi...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Oilseed Highlights: South America/SAF Driving Developments
The Market For the week, the July soybean contract added 37.75 cents (3.2 percent) in value. November soybeans closed out Friday’s trading at $12.01/bushel, the highest close in over a month above the 100-day moving average for the first time this year. July soymeal moved $27.5 (7.9 perce...
Circling the Corral; Un-deglobalizing
Circling the Corral Florida now bans the marketing of cultivated meat. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said lab-grown meat was a threat to the state’s beef cattle industry, the ninth largest in the country. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association has limited its demands to just have...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, up $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.15/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $372.2/short ton, up $7.3 from ye...
Anti-Meat Slow Roll
As the implications of California’s Proposition 12 and Massachusetts’ Question 3 play out in the marketplace, yet another animal welfare ballot initiative will be put to voters in Denver this November. It reads, Should the voters of the City and County of Denver adopt an ordin...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher on Weather
After days of flat to faltering closes, corn and soybeans have now rebounded the past two days, and today wheat joined the rally. In two days, July corn has gained 13 cents and July soybeans are up 36 cents. USDA’s Export Sales report showed old crop washouts and lower actual expor...
Livestock Roundup: Ground Beef Clear of HPAI
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures rallied today after feeling the pressure of news and speculation about HPAI. As WPI reported previously, USDA announced on Tuesday it would be testing ground beef in states where dairy cattle herds had tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu. The sa...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.0425/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.99/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $364.9/short ton, up $15.9 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 19-25, 2024 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 20,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 508,600 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 8 perce...
Market Commentary: CBOT Remains Choppy, Volatile as Weather Drives Markets
The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third straight day amid more forecasts of showers for previously dry production regions. The soy complex recovered a bit from Tuesday’s sellof...
Food is First Victim; Energy Confusion
Food is First Victim Food comprises just 6 percent of all U.S. exports, but it is the first to receive retaliation in trade disputes. The latest example is Israel’s war with Hamas, though it is American food brands that are taking it on the chin. KFC has had to close 100 outlets in Malays...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.7025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $349/short ton, down $2.9 fro...
Market Commentary: Biodiesel Report Sinks Soyoil, Soy Complex; Wheat Falls on Forecast Rains
First notice day for May futures yielded heavy deliveries against the soyoil contract and, to a lesser extent, soybeans and soymeal. CBOT wheat also saw deliveries, but the grain markets survived the event relatively unscathed. Most of the day’s action was in the soy complex as weaker-tha...
Updated GREET Model and Treasury Guidance Released
The Treasury Department released its guidance on an updated Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) today. SAF would be eligible for a tax credit known as 40B for the section of the Inflation Reduction Act that cre...
Policy Shorts
Fertilizer Supplies: The U.S. Department of Commerce is recommending reduced tariffs on fertilizer imported from Russia, but increased duties on supplies from Morocco. U.S. farmers have been asking for relaxing supply constraints from Russia. The U.S. imports about 20 percent of its fertilizer...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.63/bushel, down $0.19 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $351.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Wheat Pulls Back from Weather Rally; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with wheat futures (except the MGEX market) pulling back amid profit taking and a general feeling of a correction after their recent rally. The soy complex, on the other hand, saw a strong rally in soymeal as the plight of the Argentine crop is bolster...
Carbon Wars; Teeing up Taiwan
Carbon Wars The EU is moving forward with its plans for a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and with its EU Deforestation Regulation. Despite claims to handling domestic and imported products equally as required under the WTO’s national treatment obligation, there will be plenty...
Farm Bill Behind the Scenes Negotiations
On 15 April WPI reported: House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) has stated that he will move a farm bill draft out of committee in May; the Ranking Minority Member, David Scott (D-Georgia) has indicated that he’ll work with Thompson to have a bipartisan time...
Eat less, Toot Less
Plants such as beans, lentils and chickpeas are the nutritional rage. They are plant derived foods with higher protein content and thus their production and consumption should be on the rise. But alas, the USDA data is not comporting with that nutritional advice. Over the past four years,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.085/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.82/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $354.3/short ton, up $9.6...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Nearing a Ceiling
Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat higher for a seventh straight session, and pork finally took a fall. There was high volume trading in corn today but without any strong fee...
Oilseed Highlights: Up, Despite Grey Clouds
The Market Brazil has been winning the soybean export war, and imported biodiesel feedstock threatens domestic crush margins, but Chicago trading this week appeared to shake off such concerns. July soybeans traded lower for the past three trading sessions but larger gains achieved at the beginn...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $344.7/short ton, down $2.9 f...
Q1 GDP Comes in Low, Interest Rate Expected to Stay High
The Q1 2024 GDP was 1.6 percent, well below the pre-report consensus expectation of 2.4 percent, and down from 3.1 percent in Q1 2023 and 3.4 percent in Q4 2023. That rate was the slowest in almost two years, dating back to Q2 2022. Recall that in the 2 February Ag Perspectives report on...
U.S. Consumer Spending, Financial Health Supports 2024 Economic Outlook
As WPI readers likely well know by now, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an inflation- and seasonally-adjusted 1.6 percent rate in Q1 2024, which missed economist’s 2.4 percent expectations. The data sent shockwaves through U.S. financial markets with U.S. stocks and bonds openin...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 12-18, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 82,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports shipments of 573,900 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week and 13 p...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Weather Rally; Corn, Soybeans Steady While Eyeing Weather
Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and the Black Sea. Until a few weeks ago, there were few doubts about the 2024 crop being able to supply the expected demand, but now reduced yi...
Most Apparent Solution; Future is Biotech
Most Apparent Solution The EU’s organic sector wants the bloc’s officials to take more action to ensure they achieve the target of 25 percent of agricultural output being organic by 2030. Specifically, they want a campaign to increase consumer demand for organic food so that organic...
Livestock Roundup: HPAI Developments
Yesterday, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) issued a federal order requiring testing and reporting of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) for the interstate movement of lactating dairy cattle. Specific guidance will be issued at some point today, and the order will go...
Market Commentary: Some Reversals, Some Not
Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat remains on a tear with a fifth trading session closing higher. The mood around wheat sees supply concerns developing in North America and in t...
Forecast Cow-Calf Profits Near Record, Robust Heifer Retention Expected
Cow-calf producer margins are discussed less frequently in these pages than their downstream counterparts of feedlot and beef packer margins, but this doesn’t mean they are less important to understanding the beef industry’s current state and outlook. Additionally, discussion of thi...
Market Commentary: Grains, Oilseeds Contract on More Pre-WASDE Positioning
Grain futures continue to retreat from their recent rally highs with traders unwilling to overextend risks heading into Friday’s WASDE report. The WASDE should be supportive old crop futures from cuts to the Brazilian and Argentine crops, but new crop futures could see pressure from expec...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.585/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.34/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.2775/bushel, down $0.1875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $378.5/short ton, down $4...
FOB Prices and Freight Rate App (Updated 8 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 3 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk freight markets continue to struggle as there is over capacity for several vessels classes and a lack of meaningful cargo demand improvement. Vessel owners and market players remain optimistic, however, that rates will rally in LH...
Interactive Ocean Freight Rates (Updated 8 May)
Ocean Freight Comments - 3 May 2024 By Matt Herrington Dry bulk freight markets continue to struggle as there is over capacity for several vessels classes and a lack of meaningful cargo demand improvement. Vessel owners and market players remain optimistic, however, that rates will rally in LH...
Market Commentary: Traders Pause CBOT Rally While Eyeing WASDE
The grain market fundamentals didn’t change much from Monday to Tuesday, but traders largely suspended their short-covering or long-positioning efforts as they looked ahead to the May WASDE. The report will be issued this Friday and will include USDA’s first projections for MY 2024/...
Beef Supply Overview
The March data for beef exports at 256.108 million pounds showed a drop in volume of 10.4 percent from March 2023, but posted the highest volume of Q1. Export value was down 0.3 percent, or effectively flat, from 2023, but was the highest in nine months. For Q1 2024, volume was 311,865 MT, down...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4275/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.465/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $383.2/short ton, down $4.4...
Remake Agriculture for the Climate; Counter-Notifying India; Plurilateral Path
Remake Agriculture for the Climate The World Bank has issued a report on achieving net zero emissions in the agrifood system (Recipe for a Livable Planet) that cites the sector for being a big emitter, but also one that can achieve reductions at a relatively low-cost. It makes the usual recomme...
Market Commentary: Bulls Are Running Again
Bulls remain firmly in charge of CBOT ag trade with weather concerns seemingly around the world prompting short covering and fresh long buying. Wheat and soybeans were the upside leaders at the CBOT once again as these two commodities hold the most bullish weather implications. Corn was largely...
Having Cake and Eat it Too; Philippine Opportunity
Having Cake and Eat it Too The U.S. is a major food exporter and its sales to India are relatively small and steady due to the border measures it encounters. By contrast, India demands the right to high border measures due to it being a poor country with food insecurity, despite the fact it exp...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 6 May)
Update for 1 April 2024: Last year, users pointed out differences between the 5-year averages reported in this app and what USDA estimates in its weekly report. The difference exists because WPI calculates average based on the last 5 years of observations for the current week. In cases where ob...
Geographic Food Price Differences
Eastern European countries were upset a few years ago when it was discovered that food marketers were retailing lower quality foods in their region of Europe versus countries in the west. Price was not discussed but that differentiation would have followed willingness to pay and the fact that m...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.69/bushel, up $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.4875/bushel, up $0.2625 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.4875/bushel, up $0.3375 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $387.6/short ton, up $15.4 fr...
House-Senate Ag Leader Talks on Farm Bill This Week; SNAP Will be an Issue
Both the House and Senate Agriculture Committees have released broad outlines that will underpin the two panels’ drafts of the farm bill. Reports from Capitol Hill are that the two committee chairs, Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) and Representative Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) wi...
Market Commentary: CBOT Gains Continue on Weather Market, Risk-On Mentality
The CBOT followed the higher trend it established earlier this week with still more bullish news emerging to close the week. First off, the weather remains challenging for the U.S., South America, and Europe and, secondly, Russia’s 2024 wheat crop and exports saw another downward revision...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
Oilseed Highlights: South America/SAF Driving Developments
The Market For the week, the July soybean contract added 37.75 cents (3.2 percent) in value. November soybeans closed out Friday’s trading at $12.01/bushel, the highest close in over a month above the 100-day moving average for the first time this year. July soymeal moved $27.5 (7.9 perce...
Circling the Corral; Un-deglobalizing
Circling the Corral Florida now bans the marketing of cultivated meat. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said lab-grown meat was a threat to the state’s beef cattle industry, the ninth largest in the country. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association has limited its demands to just have...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.6025/bushel, up $0.005 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.225/bushel, up $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $12.15/bushel, up $0.16 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $372.2/short ton, up $7.3 from ye...
Anti-Meat Slow Roll
As the implications of California’s Proposition 12 and Massachusetts’ Question 3 play out in the marketplace, yet another animal welfare ballot initiative will be put to voters in Denver this November. It reads, Should the voters of the City and County of Denver adopt an ordin...
Market Commentary: Mostly Higher on Weather
After days of flat to faltering closes, corn and soybeans have now rebounded the past two days, and today wheat joined the rally. In two days, July corn has gained 13 cents and July soybeans are up 36 cents. USDA’s Export Sales report showed old crop washouts and lower actual expor...
Livestock Roundup: Ground Beef Clear of HPAI
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures rallied today after feeling the pressure of news and speculation about HPAI. As WPI reported previously, USDA announced on Tuesday it would be testing ground beef in states where dairy cattle herds had tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu. The sa...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5975/bushel, up $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.0425/bushel, up $0.05 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.99/bushel, up $0.2875 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $364.9/short ton, up $15.9 from y...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 19-25, 2024 Wheat: Net sales reductions of 20,300 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 508,600 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 8 perce...
Market Commentary: CBOT Remains Choppy, Volatile as Weather Drives Markets
The CBOT saw another day of mixed trade with livestock futures pushing sharply lower as demand fears resurface while wheat futures drew back for a third straight day amid more forecasts of showers for previously dry production regions. The soy complex recovered a bit from Tuesday’s sellof...
Food is First Victim; Energy Confusion
Food is First Victim Food comprises just 6 percent of all U.S. exports, but it is the first to receive retaliation in trade disputes. The latest example is Israel’s war with Hamas, though it is American food brands that are taking it on the chin. KFC has had to close 100 outlets in Malays...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $5.9925/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.7025/bushel, up $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $349/short ton, down $2.9 fro...
Market Commentary: Biodiesel Report Sinks Soyoil, Soy Complex; Wheat Falls on Forecast Rains
First notice day for May futures yielded heavy deliveries against the soyoil contract and, to a lesser extent, soybeans and soymeal. CBOT wheat also saw deliveries, but the grain markets survived the event relatively unscathed. Most of the day’s action was in the soy complex as weaker-tha...
Updated GREET Model and Treasury Guidance Released
The Treasury Department released its guidance on an updated Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) today. SAF would be eligible for a tax credit known as 40B for the section of the Inflation Reduction Act that cre...
Policy Shorts
Fertilizer Supplies: The U.S. Department of Commerce is recommending reduced tariffs on fertilizer imported from Russia, but increased duties on supplies from Morocco. U.S. farmers have been asking for relaxing supply constraints from Russia. The U.S. imports about 20 percent of its fertilizer...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4675/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.0325/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.63/bushel, down $0.19 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $351.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Wheat Pulls Back from Weather Rally; Soymeal Leads Soy Complex
The CBOT saw mixed trade to start the week with wheat futures (except the MGEX market) pulling back amid profit taking and a general feeling of a correction after their recent rally. The soy complex, on the other hand, saw a strong rally in soymeal as the plight of the Argentine crop is bolster...
Carbon Wars; Teeing up Taiwan
Carbon Wars The EU is moving forward with its plans for a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and with its EU Deforestation Regulation. Despite claims to handling domestic and imported products equally as required under the WTO’s national treatment obligation, there will be plenty...
Farm Bill Behind the Scenes Negotiations
On 15 April WPI reported: House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn Thompson (R-Pennsylvania) has stated that he will move a farm bill draft out of committee in May; the Ranking Minority Member, David Scott (D-Georgia) has indicated that he’ll work with Thompson to have a bipartisan time...
Eat less, Toot Less
Plants such as beans, lentils and chickpeas are the nutritional rage. They are plant derived foods with higher protein content and thus their production and consumption should be on the rise. But alas, the USDA data is not comporting with that nutritional advice. Over the past four years,...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.4925/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.085/bushel, down $0.1375 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.82/bushel, up $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $354.3/short ton, up $9.6...
Market Commentary: Weather Worries Nearing a Ceiling
Large supplies and a strong dollar took their toll this week on corn and soybeans, but they still managed to outperform. Weather worries pushed wheat higher for a seventh straight session, and pork finally took a fall. There was high volume trading in corn today but without any strong fee...
Oilseed Highlights: Up, Despite Grey Clouds
The Market Brazil has been winning the soybean export war, and imported biodiesel feedstock threatens domestic crush margins, but Chicago trading this week appeared to shake off such concerns. July soybeans traded lower for the past three trading sessions but larger gains achieved at the beginn...
Summary of Futures
Jul 24 Corn closed at $4.5/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Wheat closed at $6.2225/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.7725/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Jul 24 Soymeal closed at $344.7/short ton, down $2.9 f...
Q1 GDP Comes in Low, Interest Rate Expected to Stay High
The Q1 2024 GDP was 1.6 percent, well below the pre-report consensus expectation of 2.4 percent, and down from 3.1 percent in Q1 2023 and 3.4 percent in Q4 2023. That rate was the slowest in almost two years, dating back to Q2 2022. Recall that in the 2 February Ag Perspectives report on...
U.S. Consumer Spending, Financial Health Supports 2024 Economic Outlook
As WPI readers likely well know by now, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an inflation- and seasonally-adjusted 1.6 percent rate in Q1 2024, which missed economist’s 2.4 percent expectations. The data sent shockwaves through U.S. financial markets with U.S. stocks and bonds openin...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for April 12-18, 2024 Wheat: Net sales of 82,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down noticeably from the previous week and down 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports shipments of 573,900 MT were up 18 percent from the previous week and 13 p...
Market Commentary: Wheat Extends Weather Rally; Corn, Soybeans Steady While Eyeing Weather
Wheat remains the star of the ag commodity space this week with the rally continuing on challenging weather prospects for the U.S. HRW region, Europe, and the Black Sea. Until a few weeks ago, there were few doubts about the 2024 crop being able to supply the expected demand, but now reduced yi...
Most Apparent Solution; Future is Biotech
Most Apparent Solution The EU’s organic sector wants the bloc’s officials to take more action to ensure they achieve the target of 25 percent of agricultural output being organic by 2030. Specifically, they want a campaign to increase consumer demand for organic food so that organic...
Livestock Roundup: HPAI Developments
Yesterday, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) issued a federal order requiring testing and reporting of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) for the interstate movement of lactating dairy cattle. Specific guidance will be issued at some point today, and the order will go...
Market Commentary: Some Reversals, Some Not
Corn, soybeans and soyoil all closed lower after trading up the previous three sessions. July soymeal made it a fourth trading session higher, and wheat remains on a tear with a fifth trading session closing higher. The mood around wheat sees supply concerns developing in North America and in t...
Forecast Cow-Calf Profits Near Record, Robust Heifer Retention Expected
Cow-calf producer margins are discussed less frequently in these pages than their downstream counterparts of feedlot and beef packer margins, but this doesn’t mean they are less important to understanding the beef industry’s current state and outlook. Additionally, discussion of thi...