World Perspectives

Softs Recent Softs Analysis

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Agricultural Funds and ETFs

The theory that commodities were a useful tool for anyone seeking to diversify an investment portfolio gained considerable popularity in the early years of the 21st century. This was based on studies indicating that commodity and equity prices often moved in opposite directions. The viability o...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

USDA Makes Changes to WASDE Tables

USDA announced this week that it will make some changes (noted below) to the monthly WASDE (supply and demand estimates) starting with the May report. While not huge, these modifications will likely add clarity and should have been implemented long ago. They will not affect the actual numbers b...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil is always in the details, which won’t be known until the deal is made public. Much of the commentary on various business channels toda...

softs soy-oilseeds wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...

soy-oilseeds softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean production at 13.459 MMT, the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) projects the total at 11.483 MMT, a difference of 1.976 MMT. Per available detai...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds softs

China In-Country Analysis

Market Trends A Tale of Two Years With the shutdown of the U.S. government over (at least temporarily), its official statistics are now available to the general public for analysis. Similarly, China’s curtailment of the widespread distribution of official data, the result of a crackdown o...

softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...

livestock feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Poultry Sector Suffering Severe Losses; Imported Chicken Cheaper As a follow-up to the issue of rising feed prices that was discussed in the 11 January report (click here), the poultry sector’s margins continue to fall with the cost of production up at least 7.5 percent due to those price...

softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...

soy-oilseeds softs energy

Brainstorming without USDA

It takes something like the current partial shutdown of the U.S. government to make those involved with agricultural markets realize how much we depend on the stream of data from USDA. The regularity of things like export sales reports, livestock reports, and estimates of production, supplies a...

softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports   India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rapeseed-Mustard Prices Crash as Hopes of Exporting to China Vanish As relations between the U.S. and China thawed and a 90-day truce was called, all hopes of India exporting rapeseed-mustard meal and soymeal to the latter vanished. China was back in the market for U.S. soybeans. It did make st...

soy-oilseeds softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...

softs feed-grains wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sensitive Sugar Situation in India India has so far contracted to export approximately 1 MMT of sugar against the government’s fixed target of 5 MMT. Despite dropping 3.49 percent in the past month, however, the Indian sugar price is still 21.06 percent higher than the world price, which...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulses Demand, Supply and Prices India has been importing large quantities of pulses/lentils over the years. That slowed in the last year, however, as domestic production has increased because of higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Khariff pulses production is expected to rise from 6 MMT in 20...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

How Much Sugar and Ethanol Will India Produce in Sugar Year 2018/19? It was widely speculated about four months ago that India would produce a huge volume of sugar at 35.5 MMT, adding to its problems of plenty. Following new reports of water scarcity and drought conditions in Maharashtra (as we...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India’s Sugar Production Commences, Ethanol Tender Under Scrutiny The sugarcane crush season has started in India with a few mills beginning operations in Maharashtra last week. There are still some issues to be resolved before all mills are crushing, including the labor wages for harv...

soy-oilseeds softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Oil Meal Exports Continue Upward Trend India’s oil meal exports totaled 1.403 MMT for the first six months of FY 2018/19 (April-March), up 0.119 MMT or 9 percent from 1.284 MMT a year ago. Rapeseed meal exports had the biggest gain at 0.601 MMT versus 0.3 MMT during April-September 2017...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

MSP for Rabi Crops Announced The commitment to double farmers’ income by the Modi government ensured an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) of key rabi crops, which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) early this week. The goal is to provide at least...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Another Bailout Package for Sugar Sector The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a third package to bail out the sugar industry. Worth $758 million, it includes a freight subsidy for sugar exports of up to 5 MMT and $1.89/MT on cane crushed in 2018/19. The first package, v...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Early 2019 Acreage Forecasts

In advance of USDA’s winter wheat acreage report on Friday, WPI has prepared early forecasts of 2018/19 crop planted area for the U.S. Given current market dynamics, it comes as no surprise that our research finds corn acres will increase at the expense of soybeans. Wheat area will increa...

soy-oilseeds softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Drop in Vegetable Oil Imports  India’s vegetable oil imports have increased over the years. They rose from 14.42 MMT in 2014/15 (November-October) to 14.57 MMT in 2015/16 and 15.07 MMT (approx. 1.25 MT/month) in 2016/17. In 2017/18, though, overall imports are down. According to data...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market

The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Agricultural Funds and ETFs

The theory that commodities were a useful tool for anyone seeking to diversify an investment portfolio gained considerable popularity in the early years of the 21st century. This was based on studies indicating that commodity and equity prices often moved in opposite directions. The viability o...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

USDA Makes Changes to WASDE Tables

USDA announced this week that it will make some changes (noted below) to the monthly WASDE (supply and demand estimates) starting with the May report. While not huge, these modifications will likely add clarity and should have been implemented long ago. They will not affect the actual numbers b...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

- Grain and oilseed markets were firm today, mostly on growing chatter that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. The devil is always in the details, which won’t be known until the deal is made public. Much of the commentary on various business channels toda...

softs soy-oilseeds wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Higher Early Sugar Production and Slow Exports Could Pressure Prices Due to the early start of the 2018/19 sugarcane crushing season, Indian sugar mills were able to produce 21.93 MMT of sugar as of 15 February 2019 versus 20.36 MMT at the same point a year ago, an increase of 7.71 percent. Ano...

soy-oilseeds softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ample Soybean Supplies Expected to Result in 1 MMT Carryover While the government of India (GOI) has projected 2018/19 (October-September) soybean production at 13.459 MMT, the Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) projects the total at 11.483 MMT, a difference of 1.976 MMT. Per available detai...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds softs

China In-Country Analysis

Market Trends A Tale of Two Years With the shutdown of the U.S. government over (at least temporarily), its official statistics are now available to the general public for analysis. Similarly, China’s curtailment of the widespread distribution of official data, the result of a crackdown o...

softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Cotton Imports to Surge on Lower Production; Prices Could Remain Depressed The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has now estimated cotton production in 2018/19 (October-September) at 33 million bales, down from last month’s estimate of 33.5 million bales as well as the government of India...

livestock feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Poultry Sector Suffering Severe Losses; Imported Chicken Cheaper As a follow-up to the issue of rising feed prices that was discussed in the 11 January report (click here), the poultry sector’s margins continue to fall with the cost of production up at least 7.5 percent due to those price...

softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Production Estimates Lowered Based on new satellite survey data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association’s (ISMA’s) satellite survey of sugarcane plantings, the sugar production estimate has been decreased from 31.5 MMT to 30.7 MMT. That is 4.3 MMT or 12.28 percent lower than t...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...

soy-oilseeds softs energy

Brainstorming without USDA

It takes something like the current partial shutdown of the U.S. government to make those involved with agricultural markets realize how much we depend on the stream of data from USDA. The regularity of things like export sales reports, livestock reports, and estimates of production, supplies a...

softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports   India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rapeseed-Mustard Prices Crash as Hopes of Exporting to China Vanish As relations between the U.S. and China thawed and a 90-day truce was called, all hopes of India exporting rapeseed-mustard meal and soymeal to the latter vanished. China was back in the market for U.S. soybeans. It did make st...

soy-oilseeds softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...

softs feed-grains wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sensitive Sugar Situation in India India has so far contracted to export approximately 1 MMT of sugar against the government’s fixed target of 5 MMT. Despite dropping 3.49 percent in the past month, however, the Indian sugar price is still 21.06 percent higher than the world price, which...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulses Demand, Supply and Prices India has been importing large quantities of pulses/lentils over the years. That slowed in the last year, however, as domestic production has increased because of higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Khariff pulses production is expected to rise from 6 MMT in 20...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

How Much Sugar and Ethanol Will India Produce in Sugar Year 2018/19? It was widely speculated about four months ago that India would produce a huge volume of sugar at 35.5 MMT, adding to its problems of plenty. Following new reports of water scarcity and drought conditions in Maharashtra (as we...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India’s Sugar Production Commences, Ethanol Tender Under Scrutiny The sugarcane crush season has started in India with a few mills beginning operations in Maharashtra last week. There are still some issues to be resolved before all mills are crushing, including the labor wages for harv...

soy-oilseeds softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Oil Meal Exports Continue Upward Trend India’s oil meal exports totaled 1.403 MMT for the first six months of FY 2018/19 (April-March), up 0.119 MMT or 9 percent from 1.284 MMT a year ago. Rapeseed meal exports had the biggest gain at 0.601 MMT versus 0.3 MMT during April-September 2017...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

MSP for Rabi Crops Announced The commitment to double farmers’ income by the Modi government ensured an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) of key rabi crops, which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) early this week. The goal is to provide at least...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Another Bailout Package for Sugar Sector The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a third package to bail out the sugar industry. Worth $758 million, it includes a freight subsidy for sugar exports of up to 5 MMT and $1.89/MT on cane crushed in 2018/19. The first package, v...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Early 2019 Acreage Forecasts

In advance of USDA’s winter wheat acreage report on Friday, WPI has prepared early forecasts of 2018/19 crop planted area for the U.S. Given current market dynamics, it comes as no surprise that our research finds corn acres will increase at the expense of soybeans. Wheat area will increa...

soy-oilseeds softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Drop in Vegetable Oil Imports  India’s vegetable oil imports have increased over the years. They rose from 14.42 MMT in 2014/15 (November-October) to 14.57 MMT in 2015/16 and 15.07 MMT (approx. 1.25 MT/month) in 2016/17. In 2017/18, though, overall imports are down. According to data...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market

The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...

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