Recent Softs Analysis
Smashing Success
Global demand for avocados has been growing at 7 percent per year. Mexico produces 30 percent of the world’s avocados but supplies 45 percent of those in international trade. The U.S. is by far the largest importer. Bloomberg cites the years-long drought in Spain as a threat to that count...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Tilting at Windmills
The American Salad Belt is largely on the West Coast and Congressional representatives mostly from that region have introduced legislation (The Specialty Crops Reporting on Opportunities and Promotion Act) intended to boost the export of crops like fruits and vegetables. The political represent...
Regional Favorites
Just as North America both produces and consumes most of the world’s turkey meat (with a small honorable mention to Brazil), it also has a unique fascination with cranberries. The U.S. produces 65 percent of the world’s cranberries and adding Canada makes North America the supplier...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Usual Problem for Specialty Crops
The Biden Administration has cranked up its outreach to politically red rural America with USTR Katherine Tai now following President Biden’s focus on agriculture. Instead of picking up rural Republican votes in 2024, the goal is said to be at least reducing voter turnout in these areas...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 20-26, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 275,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 24 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 100,500 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 24 percent from the prev...
White Commodities Focus
White commodities is an American euphemism for three crops, cotton, rise, and sugar, that are all white in color and each have statutory programs considered complex or unique. They are generally produced in the U.S. south, and their traits include: Cotton: A chemically intensive crop with the l...
Tangential Rice Market Impacts
Given current tight global rice stocks and high prices (see graph below), the question is how much wheat will be substituted for food or feed use. Rice prices have dropped since their peak early this year, but wheat is still 35 percent cheaper by weight than rice as a food grain. It is one reas...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Tale of Two Commodities
EU olive oil and U.S. oranges are each having a challenging year. Beyond that the similarities are few. The EU produces 60 percent of the world’s olive oil. At its peak, the U.S. produced around 12 percent of global oranges, but that is now down to 4.6 percent. Olive oil is a premiu...
War’s Impact on Food
Israel is not the agricultural export powerhouse like Ukraine, but it is a supplier of high quality and high value fruits and vegetables. The country is 95 percent self-sufficient in food despite occupying semi-arid desert land. Much of this was achieved through intense effort at land improveme...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future
Analysts at Rabobank looked at future food needs in Sub-Saharan Africa and concluded that wheat imports will increase and so will the need for milling capacity. Although its wheat production has been expanding, the region already imports almost 73 percent of its wheat consumption. Its wheat yie...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Rice Signals Future
Global rice stocks are down just 2.7 percent this year, but the drop is larger in key rice consuming countries, plus the largest rice exporting nation, India, imposed an export restriction. This has caused an exaggerated response in price with global values rising 29 percent year-on-year. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Tomato Wars
U.S. and Mexican trade officials meet in Washington this Friday for the annual bilateral economic dialogue. Labor rights, automobile domestic content, and maybe GMO corn are likely topics. Another will be tomatoes. American tomato growers and their members of Congress are demanding that the Bid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Minor Reserves
Norway will reportedly begin spending $6 million/year through the end of the decade to purchase 15,000 MT grain each year for a strategic reserve. Although the grain is not specified, it will presumably involve wheat since that is the primary food grain consumed by Norway’s 5.4 million pe...
Vegetable Market Uniqueness
Unlike grains, oilseeds and livestock products, the U.S. is increasingly import dependent for fresh vegetables. About one-third of the U.S. fresh vegetable market is supplied by imports, with 77 percent of the volume supplied by Mexico and 11 percent trucked down from Canada. Central and South...
Smashing Success
Global demand for avocados has been growing at 7 percent per year. Mexico produces 30 percent of the world’s avocados but supplies 45 percent of those in international trade. The U.S. is by far the largest importer. Bloomberg cites the years-long drought in Spain as a threat to that count...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net position in key agricultural commodity markets. The data is, of course, taken from the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders report, using the futures only data. WPI recently completed a...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Tilting at Windmills
The American Salad Belt is largely on the West Coast and Congressional representatives mostly from that region have introduced legislation (The Specialty Crops Reporting on Opportunities and Promotion Act) intended to boost the export of crops like fruits and vegetables. The political represent...
Regional Favorites
Just as North America both produces and consumes most of the world’s turkey meat (with a small honorable mention to Brazil), it also has a unique fascination with cranberries. The U.S. produces 65 percent of the world’s cranberries and adding Canada makes North America the supplier...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Usual Problem for Specialty Crops
The Biden Administration has cranked up its outreach to politically red rural America with USTR Katherine Tai now following President Biden’s focus on agriculture. Instead of picking up rural Republican votes in 2024, the goal is said to be at least reducing voter turnout in these areas...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Export Sales
Export Sales and Shipments for October 20-26, 2023. Wheat: Net sales of 275,600 metric tons (MT) for 2023/2024 were down 24 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 100,500 MT--a marketing-year low--were down 24 percent from the prev...
White Commodities Focus
White commodities is an American euphemism for three crops, cotton, rise, and sugar, that are all white in color and each have statutory programs considered complex or unique. They are generally produced in the U.S. south, and their traits include: Cotton: A chemically intensive crop with the l...
Tangential Rice Market Impacts
Given current tight global rice stocks and high prices (see graph below), the question is how much wheat will be substituted for food or feed use. Rice prices have dropped since their peak early this year, but wheat is still 35 percent cheaper by weight than rice as a food grain. It is one reas...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Tale of Two Commodities
EU olive oil and U.S. oranges are each having a challenging year. Beyond that the similarities are few. The EU produces 60 percent of the world’s olive oil. At its peak, the U.S. produced around 12 percent of global oranges, but that is now down to 4.6 percent. Olive oil is a premiu...
War’s Impact on Food
Israel is not the agricultural export powerhouse like Ukraine, but it is a supplier of high quality and high value fruits and vegetables. The country is 95 percent self-sufficient in food despite occupying semi-arid desert land. Much of this was achieved through intense effort at land improveme...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future
Analysts at Rabobank looked at future food needs in Sub-Saharan Africa and concluded that wheat imports will increase and so will the need for milling capacity. Although its wheat production has been expanding, the region already imports almost 73 percent of its wheat consumption. Its wheat yie...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Rice Signals Future
Global rice stocks are down just 2.7 percent this year, but the drop is larger in key rice consuming countries, plus the largest rice exporting nation, India, imposed an export restriction. This has caused an exaggerated response in price with global values rising 29 percent year-on-year. ...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Tomato Wars
U.S. and Mexican trade officials meet in Washington this Friday for the annual bilateral economic dialogue. Labor rights, automobile domestic content, and maybe GMO corn are likely topics. Another will be tomatoes. American tomato growers and their members of Congress are demanding that the Bid...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
New: WPI has added softs (cocoa, coffee, cotton, and sugar) and selected energy futures (NYMEX natural gas, crude oil, RBOB gasoline, and Chicago ethanol) to this report. Consequently, the attached PDF offers graphical depiction and seasonal analysis of managed money and commercial traders' net...
Minor Reserves
Norway will reportedly begin spending $6 million/year through the end of the decade to purchase 15,000 MT grain each year for a strategic reserve. Although the grain is not specified, it will presumably involve wheat since that is the primary food grain consumed by Norway’s 5.4 million pe...
Vegetable Market Uniqueness
Unlike grains, oilseeds and livestock products, the U.S. is increasingly import dependent for fresh vegetables. About one-third of the U.S. fresh vegetable market is supplied by imports, with 77 percent of the volume supplied by Mexico and 11 percent trucked down from Canada. Central and South...