Recent Softs Analysis
Healthier Diet Cost
Nutritionists advise eating more fruits and vegetables (F&V). On a calorie basis, F&V can be more expensive than a diet of carbs and fats so a trial program subsidized their use by some recipients of U.S. domestic food assistance. Policymakers are also considering limiting the number of...
Grain is Out, Veggies are In
Some members of the U.S. Congress want more support going to fruits and vegetables. They note that the overwhelming majority of farm bill income support and risk management subsidies go to grains and oilseeds. California dominates U.S. production of fruits and vegetables, accounting for 70 perc...
Perking up Supply
Although coffee futures are edging back up (Arabica hit a peak a month ago), prices are descending in longer dated contracts as Brazil is expected to supply a good crop. The normally higher priced arabica has been getting chased by robusta prices as buyers seek substitution to save costs. World...
Challenging India Subsidies
A bipartisan group of U.S. Congressmen are asking USTR Katherine Tai and the Biden Administration to mount a WTO challenge to India’s use of agricultural subsidies for wheat and rice. Washington has issued multiple counter-notifications to the WTO that highlight how much India is understa...
Sugar High – Part II
Last Monday, Gary Blumenthal wrote on the bullish sugar market as global supplies tighten, and demand stays strong. The March Consumer Price Index showed sugar (and substitutes) up 12.7 percent year-over-year. Other sugar containing products, especially when combined with tight supplies of whea...
Sugar High
Sugar prices are moving to new highs as supplies tighten. Brazil, the world’s largest producer of sugar, saw output this year drop below that of 2020/21. China’s production is also below 2021 but demand is growing. Initial concerns might turn to biofuel but human consumption is the...
No Rice Crisis
The Economist magazine notes that rice yields are not improving very quickly and that the International Rice Research Institute says that it is the food commodity perhaps most vulnerable to climate change. It is also a major contributor to climate change due to its methane emissions and yet con...
Rice is Tight
EU rice consumption has been rising at 1.8 percent CAGR at the same time production has fallen by 30 percent since 2018/19. Italy produces about half of the EU’s rice output, and it has suffered from drought. As a water intensive crop, climate change will have an outside impact on this st...
Thailand Rice Exports
Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic production, and a rebounding global economy that has elevated the value of rice. In truth, Thai rice exports are highly correlated to production, wh...
Tomato Economics
U.S. domestic farm policy critics like U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) have a point when they note that the Farm Bill encourages the production of commodities for which Americans often over-consume, while mostly ignoring what is under-consumed and known to be healthy – fruits and...
Oats are In
David McKee at Key International LCC points out the surge in demand for oat milk, which now dominates the creamer used at many coffee shops. Global oat production has been relatively stagnant for years, running at about half the output level of the 1960’s. Production this year increased b...
How Sweet It Isn't
Global surplus sugar stocks are at their lowest since 2010/11 and futures prices are at their highest level in six years. Yet global import demand continues to expand at around 1.8 percent each year. Brazil is the world’s largest sugar exporter, and it will begin harvesting a crop that is...
Declining Population Impacts Consumption
According to USDA, South Korea’s government is taking steps to stop the price of rice from falling and to slow over-production. There will be payments to farmers for reducing planted area by 5.1 percent, and increased government purchases of rice at more than one-fifth of the crop. The pr...
Rice not Nice
India’s rice subsidies were again a complaint today at a hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. India’s rice exports have increased by a fifth over the past decade with all of it being moved into the export market. New Delhi’s rice subsidies have been part of a long-...
Less Traded Category
The news headline says that the Filipino government will import 21,060 MT of onions to fill a supply shortfall until the next domestic harvest in February. Consumer prices have quadrupled in the last four months, which has created a political issue. Vegetables as a general category are subject...
Let Us Say There’s a Problem
Grain and livestock products are the primary delivery sources for dietary calories, yet the accompaniment of a salad provides additional micronutrients and fiber in a low-impact package. Essential to the salad has been lettuce, a plant that is 95 percent water, and has traditionally been a low-...
Yams versus Sweet Potatoes
Yams and sweet potatoes are easily confused and yet they are very different crops, including in global trade. Yams are starchier are more like potatoes, whereas sweet potatoes are sweet. Roughly the same volume of yams and sweet potatoes are produced by the world’s largest producers. Yet...
Coffee Demand Steady
Demand growth for coffee has been far less volatile than production and ending stocks. Ending stocks peaked at 25 percent of consumption in 2001 as the price sunk to $0.44/pound. However, there was a stronger reaction when stocks slipped to 17 percent of production in 2011, and the price peaked...
Trade and Food Security
An anomaly since COVID disrupted supply chains is that the price of rice has been more stable than other food staples such as corn and wheat. One argument for this is that a far smaller share of total rice production is traded, making it less subject to global supply/demand volatility.&n...
Wheat Concerns in Asia
Asia has been adopting wheat as a food staple over many decades but the war In Ukraine has some worried about its supply reliability. Over the past dozen years, rice consumption has averaged a 0.86 percent annual increase while wheat consumption has been growing at twice that rate. Because clim...
Blame the Rice Boogey Man
Rice is the top staple food crop in Asia and the third largest global crop after corn and sugarcane. When rice production is in trouble, people pay attention. This year’s crop is suffering from flooding in Thailand, the sixth largest producer and second largest exporter. Plus excess rain...
Drought’s Double Whammy on China
Rice is the second largest crop in China, behind corn, but is perhaps the most important food crop. This year, drought in south China has hurt yields and quality, driving up the price of good rice. China is also the world’s largest importer of cotton, and drought in the world’s larg...
Benefit of Noncompeting Goods
U.S. pet food has been identified as a high-potential agricultural export. Pet food exports have been increasing by an average 8 percent per year and probably higher if Covid’s impact on 2020 is excluded. There are several reasons for this dynamic: Pet food is a rich world concept, and t...
Seeing Red
California is by far the largest tomato producing state with Florida far behind. However, California processes most of the tomatoes, leaving Florida’s production more subject to the impacts of trade. U.S. fresh tomato imports have been increasing at about 0.4 percent per year, with Mexico...
Healthier Diet Cost
Nutritionists advise eating more fruits and vegetables (F&V). On a calorie basis, F&V can be more expensive than a diet of carbs and fats so a trial program subsidized their use by some recipients of U.S. domestic food assistance. Policymakers are also considering limiting the number of...
Grain is Out, Veggies are In
Some members of the U.S. Congress want more support going to fruits and vegetables. They note that the overwhelming majority of farm bill income support and risk management subsidies go to grains and oilseeds. California dominates U.S. production of fruits and vegetables, accounting for 70 perc...
Perking up Supply
Although coffee futures are edging back up (Arabica hit a peak a month ago), prices are descending in longer dated contracts as Brazil is expected to supply a good crop. The normally higher priced arabica has been getting chased by robusta prices as buyers seek substitution to save costs. World...
Challenging India Subsidies
A bipartisan group of U.S. Congressmen are asking USTR Katherine Tai and the Biden Administration to mount a WTO challenge to India’s use of agricultural subsidies for wheat and rice. Washington has issued multiple counter-notifications to the WTO that highlight how much India is understa...
Sugar High – Part II
Last Monday, Gary Blumenthal wrote on the bullish sugar market as global supplies tighten, and demand stays strong. The March Consumer Price Index showed sugar (and substitutes) up 12.7 percent year-over-year. Other sugar containing products, especially when combined with tight supplies of whea...
Sugar High
Sugar prices are moving to new highs as supplies tighten. Brazil, the world’s largest producer of sugar, saw output this year drop below that of 2020/21. China’s production is also below 2021 but demand is growing. Initial concerns might turn to biofuel but human consumption is the...
No Rice Crisis
The Economist magazine notes that rice yields are not improving very quickly and that the International Rice Research Institute says that it is the food commodity perhaps most vulnerable to climate change. It is also a major contributor to climate change due to its methane emissions and yet con...
Rice is Tight
EU rice consumption has been rising at 1.8 percent CAGR at the same time production has fallen by 30 percent since 2018/19. Italy produces about half of the EU’s rice output, and it has suffered from drought. As a water intensive crop, climate change will have an outside impact on this st...
Thailand Rice Exports
Thai government official Anucha Burapachaisri said the target for rice exports has been raised to 7.5 MMT. The official cited both higher domestic production, and a rebounding global economy that has elevated the value of rice. In truth, Thai rice exports are highly correlated to production, wh...
Tomato Economics
U.S. domestic farm policy critics like U.S. Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) have a point when they note that the Farm Bill encourages the production of commodities for which Americans often over-consume, while mostly ignoring what is under-consumed and known to be healthy – fruits and...
Oats are In
David McKee at Key International LCC points out the surge in demand for oat milk, which now dominates the creamer used at many coffee shops. Global oat production has been relatively stagnant for years, running at about half the output level of the 1960’s. Production this year increased b...
How Sweet It Isn't
Global surplus sugar stocks are at their lowest since 2010/11 and futures prices are at their highest level in six years. Yet global import demand continues to expand at around 1.8 percent each year. Brazil is the world’s largest sugar exporter, and it will begin harvesting a crop that is...
Declining Population Impacts Consumption
According to USDA, South Korea’s government is taking steps to stop the price of rice from falling and to slow over-production. There will be payments to farmers for reducing planted area by 5.1 percent, and increased government purchases of rice at more than one-fifth of the crop. The pr...
Rice not Nice
India’s rice subsidies were again a complaint today at a hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee. India’s rice exports have increased by a fifth over the past decade with all of it being moved into the export market. New Delhi’s rice subsidies have been part of a long-...
Less Traded Category
The news headline says that the Filipino government will import 21,060 MT of onions to fill a supply shortfall until the next domestic harvest in February. Consumer prices have quadrupled in the last four months, which has created a political issue. Vegetables as a general category are subject...
Let Us Say There’s a Problem
Grain and livestock products are the primary delivery sources for dietary calories, yet the accompaniment of a salad provides additional micronutrients and fiber in a low-impact package. Essential to the salad has been lettuce, a plant that is 95 percent water, and has traditionally been a low-...
Yams versus Sweet Potatoes
Yams and sweet potatoes are easily confused and yet they are very different crops, including in global trade. Yams are starchier are more like potatoes, whereas sweet potatoes are sweet. Roughly the same volume of yams and sweet potatoes are produced by the world’s largest producers. Yet...
Coffee Demand Steady
Demand growth for coffee has been far less volatile than production and ending stocks. Ending stocks peaked at 25 percent of consumption in 2001 as the price sunk to $0.44/pound. However, there was a stronger reaction when stocks slipped to 17 percent of production in 2011, and the price peaked...
Trade and Food Security
An anomaly since COVID disrupted supply chains is that the price of rice has been more stable than other food staples such as corn and wheat. One argument for this is that a far smaller share of total rice production is traded, making it less subject to global supply/demand volatility.&n...
Wheat Concerns in Asia
Asia has been adopting wheat as a food staple over many decades but the war In Ukraine has some worried about its supply reliability. Over the past dozen years, rice consumption has averaged a 0.86 percent annual increase while wheat consumption has been growing at twice that rate. Because clim...
Blame the Rice Boogey Man
Rice is the top staple food crop in Asia and the third largest global crop after corn and sugarcane. When rice production is in trouble, people pay attention. This year’s crop is suffering from flooding in Thailand, the sixth largest producer and second largest exporter. Plus excess rain...
Drought’s Double Whammy on China
Rice is the second largest crop in China, behind corn, but is perhaps the most important food crop. This year, drought in south China has hurt yields and quality, driving up the price of good rice. China is also the world’s largest importer of cotton, and drought in the world’s larg...
Benefit of Noncompeting Goods
U.S. pet food has been identified as a high-potential agricultural export. Pet food exports have been increasing by an average 8 percent per year and probably higher if Covid’s impact on 2020 is excluded. There are several reasons for this dynamic: Pet food is a rich world concept, and t...
Seeing Red
California is by far the largest tomato producing state with Florida far behind. However, California processes most of the tomatoes, leaving Florida’s production more subject to the impacts of trade. U.S. fresh tomato imports have been increasing at about 0.4 percent per year, with Mexico...