World Perspectives

Softs Recent Softs Analysis

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...

soy-oilseeds softs energy

Brainstorming without USDA

It takes something like the current partial shutdown of the U.S. government to make those involved with agricultural markets realize how much we depend on the stream of data from USDA. The regularity of things like export sales reports, livestock reports, and estimates of production, supplies a...

softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports   India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rapeseed-Mustard Prices Crash as Hopes of Exporting to China Vanish As relations between the U.S. and China thawed and a 90-day truce was called, all hopes of India exporting rapeseed-mustard meal and soymeal to the latter vanished. China was back in the market for U.S. soybeans. It did make st...

soy-oilseeds softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...

softs feed-grains wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sensitive Sugar Situation in India India has so far contracted to export approximately 1 MMT of sugar against the government’s fixed target of 5 MMT. Despite dropping 3.49 percent in the past month, however, the Indian sugar price is still 21.06 percent higher than the world price, which...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulses Demand, Supply and Prices India has been importing large quantities of pulses/lentils over the years. That slowed in the last year, however, as domestic production has increased because of higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Khariff pulses production is expected to rise from 6 MMT in 20...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

How Much Sugar and Ethanol Will India Produce in Sugar Year 2018/19? It was widely speculated about four months ago that India would produce a huge volume of sugar at 35.5 MMT, adding to its problems of plenty. Following new reports of water scarcity and drought conditions in Maharashtra (as we...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India’s Sugar Production Commences, Ethanol Tender Under Scrutiny The sugarcane crush season has started in India with a few mills beginning operations in Maharashtra last week. There are still some issues to be resolved before all mills are crushing, including the labor wages for harv...

soy-oilseeds softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Oil Meal Exports Continue Upward Trend India’s oil meal exports totaled 1.403 MMT for the first six months of FY 2018/19 (April-March), up 0.119 MMT or 9 percent from 1.284 MMT a year ago. Rapeseed meal exports had the biggest gain at 0.601 MMT versus 0.3 MMT during April-September 2017...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

MSP for Rabi Crops Announced The commitment to double farmers’ income by the Modi government ensured an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) of key rabi crops, which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) early this week. The goal is to provide at least...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Another Bailout Package for Sugar Sector The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a third package to bail out the sugar industry. Worth $758 million, it includes a freight subsidy for sugar exports of up to 5 MMT and $1.89/MT on cane crushed in 2018/19. The first package, v...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Early 2019 Acreage Forecasts

In advance of USDA’s winter wheat acreage report on Friday, WPI has prepared early forecasts of 2018/19 crop planted area for the U.S. Given current market dynamics, it comes as no surprise that our research finds corn acres will increase at the expense of soybeans. Wheat area will increa...

soy-oilseeds softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Drop in Vegetable Oil Imports  India’s vegetable oil imports have increased over the years. They rose from 14.42 MMT in 2014/15 (November-October) to 14.57 MMT in 2015/16 and 15.07 MMT (approx. 1.25 MT/month) in 2016/17. In 2017/18, though, overall imports are down. According to data...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market

The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...

feed-grains softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Demand for Quality Malt and Beer Increasing The number of microbreweries has grown from 20 to 120 in the past five years (2013-2018), up 500 percent. New international brands have come to India during this period, and now the trend is to sell bottled/canned craft beer. However, none of this mea...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4 MMT versus 9.615 MMT in the same previous eight months. For June 2018, they were 19.18 percent lower than May 2018 at 1.007 MMT and down 22...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Increased Sugarcane Prices a Double Blow for the Sugar Industry As this is an election year, the government must please farmers, the backbone of the Indian economy. As it promised in the election manifesto and again in the budget speech to guarantee them at least a 50 percent profit above the c...

softs feed-grains biofuel

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ethanol Policy Changes May Not Ease Pressure on Sugar Sector Immediately Changes in ethanol prices, including that of B-Heavy molasses as an input for making the fuel, do not mean that India will become self-sufficient in supplies and fulfil the demand of the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP). Fur...

softs feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ban on Yellow Pea Imports Extended for Three Months India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the ban on yellow pea imports, first implemented in late April 2018 for a three-month period as the price of chickpeas cotinued to slide, until 30 September 2018. Per the notification, “The...

feed-grains livestock wheat

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

CBOT products bounced higher today as the Trump Administration confirmed it is backing away from new restrictions in investment and intellectual property purchase rights to be applied on China. The move is being interpreted as the Administration taking a softer tone to draw China back to the ne...

soy-oilseeds softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Falling Soymeal Prices May Move Up if Exports Continue Soybean and soymeal prices moved lower last week but had some upward movement near its end, and they are stable now due to slow poultry sector demand as well as international cues. However, world prices are still lower. The Indian soybean s...

biofuel softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ethanol Production Up; Prices Nose-Dive  As noted in earlier reports, India’s sugar production in sugar year 2017/18 (November-October) is expected to reach 32 MMT, and that is having an effect on ethanol production. The latter is now expected to total 3.11 billion liters (0.822 bill...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rabi Sowing Down As of 18 January 2019, the total rabi planted area was down 4.8 percent versus 2017/18. While wheat is among the crops affected, pulses and coarse cereals, most especially pearl millet, are down significantly (see table below). The overal oilseed area has been good, however, as...

soy-oilseeds softs energy

Brainstorming without USDA

It takes something like the current partial shutdown of the U.S. government to make those involved with agricultural markets realize how much we depend on the stream of data from USDA. The regularity of things like export sales reports, livestock reports, and estimates of production, supplies a...

softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulse Prices Continue to Rise; GOI Restricts Imports   India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the yellow pea import restriction through 31 March 2019. The import restrictions’ goal is to curb cheaper imports and help boost domestic pulse prices. The Government of India...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Rapeseed-Mustard Prices Crash as Hopes of Exporting to China Vanish As relations between the U.S. and China thawed and a 90-day truce was called, all hopes of India exporting rapeseed-mustard meal and soymeal to the latter vanished. China was back in the market for U.S. soybeans. It did make st...

soy-oilseeds softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports Decline India’s vegetable oil imports totaled 1.073 MMT last month, a drop of 10.1 percent from 1.174 MMT in October and down 15.2 percent versus November 2017. In June 2018, the government of India (GOI) raised the duty on vegetable oils. The rates on crude palm oi...

softs feed-grains wheat

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sensitive Sugar Situation in India India has so far contracted to export approximately 1 MMT of sugar against the government’s fixed target of 5 MMT. Despite dropping 3.49 percent in the past month, however, the Indian sugar price is still 21.06 percent higher than the world price, which...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Pulses Demand, Supply and Prices India has been importing large quantities of pulses/lentils over the years. That slowed in the last year, however, as domestic production has increased because of higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP). Khariff pulses production is expected to rise from 6 MMT in 20...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

How Much Sugar and Ethanol Will India Produce in Sugar Year 2018/19? It was widely speculated about four months ago that India would produce a huge volume of sugar at 35.5 MMT, adding to its problems of plenty. Following new reports of water scarcity and drought conditions in Maharashtra (as we...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As India’s Sugar Production Commences, Ethanol Tender Under Scrutiny The sugarcane crush season has started in India with a few mills beginning operations in Maharashtra last week. There are still some issues to be resolved before all mills are crushing, including the labor wages for harv...

soy-oilseeds softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Oil Meal Exports Continue Upward Trend India’s oil meal exports totaled 1.403 MMT for the first six months of FY 2018/19 (April-March), up 0.119 MMT or 9 percent from 1.284 MMT a year ago. Rapeseed meal exports had the biggest gain at 0.601 MMT versus 0.3 MMT during April-September 2017...

wheat feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

MSP for Rabi Crops Announced The commitment to double farmers’ income by the Modi government ensured an increase in the Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) of key rabi crops, which was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) early this week. The goal is to provide at least...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Another Bailout Package for Sugar Sector The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved a third package to bail out the sugar industry. Worth $758 million, it includes a freight subsidy for sugar exports of up to 5 MMT and $1.89/MT on cane crushed in 2018/19. The first package, v...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Early 2019 Acreage Forecasts

In advance of USDA’s winter wheat acreage report on Friday, WPI has prepared early forecasts of 2018/19 crop planted area for the U.S. Given current market dynamics, it comes as no surprise that our research finds corn acres will increase at the expense of soybeans. Wheat area will increa...

soy-oilseeds softs feed-grains

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Drop in Vegetable Oil Imports  India’s vegetable oil imports have increased over the years. They rose from 14.42 MMT in 2014/15 (November-October) to 14.57 MMT in 2015/16 and 15.07 MMT (approx. 1.25 MT/month) in 2016/17. In 2017/18, though, overall imports are down. According to data...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: The Bear that Ate the Corn Market

The WASDE was undeniably bearish with December corn and November soybean futures reaching new contract lows (actually, soybeans hit the low before and after the WASDE’s release), while wheat futures were down double-digits in response to the latest news. The headline numbers cratering the...

feed-grains softs

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Demand for Quality Malt and Beer Increasing The number of microbreweries has grown from 20 to 120 in the past five years (2013-2018), up 500 percent. New international brands have come to India during this period, and now the trend is to sell bottled/canned craft beer. However, none of this mea...

softs soy-oilseeds feed-grains

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar Prices Stable; Exports Not Feasible Even with the Merchandise Export from India Scheme (MEIS) export incentive of 7 percent, it is not possible to make a profit exporting sugar. The government of India (GOI) set an export target of 2.0 MMT for the 2017/18 season (ending 30 September), but...

soy-oilseeds feed-grains softs

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Vegetable Oil Imports via South Asian Countries India’s edible vegetable oil imports dropped about 2.23 percent during November 2017-June 2018 to 9.4 MMT versus 9.615 MMT in the same previous eight months. For June 2018, they were 19.18 percent lower than May 2018 at 1.007 MMT and down 22...

softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Increased Sugarcane Prices a Double Blow for the Sugar Industry As this is an election year, the government must please farmers, the backbone of the Indian economy. As it promised in the election manifesto and again in the budget speech to guarantee them at least a 50 percent profit above the c...

softs feed-grains biofuel

India Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ethanol Policy Changes May Not Ease Pressure on Sugar Sector Immediately Changes in ethanol prices, including that of B-Heavy molasses as an input for making the fuel, do not mean that India will become self-sufficient in supplies and fulfil the demand of the Ethanol Blending Program (EBP). Fur...

softs feed-grains soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ban on Yellow Pea Imports Extended for Three Months India’s Ministry of Commerce has extended the ban on yellow pea imports, first implemented in late April 2018 for a three-month period as the price of chickpeas cotinued to slide, until 30 September 2018. Per the notification, “The...

feed-grains livestock wheat

Closing Bell Wrap-Up

CBOT products bounced higher today as the Trump Administration confirmed it is backing away from new restrictions in investment and intellectual property purchase rights to be applied on China. The move is being interpreted as the Administration taking a softer tone to draw China back to the ne...

soy-oilseeds softs biofuel

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Falling Soymeal Prices May Move Up if Exports Continue Soybean and soymeal prices moved lower last week but had some upward movement near its end, and they are stable now due to slow poultry sector demand as well as international cues. However, world prices are still lower. The Indian soybean s...

biofuel softs soy-oilseeds

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Ethanol Production Up; Prices Nose-Dive  As noted in earlier reports, India’s sugar production in sugar year 2017/18 (November-October) is expected to reach 32 MMT, and that is having an effect on ethanol production. The latter is now expected to total 3.11 billion liters (0.822 bill...

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