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Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea market remained about unchanged during the past three weeks. The Russian wheat balance sheet looks heavy on paper, but two factors are preven...

Avian Barriers; Change in Futures Trading

South Korea has agreed to allow the importation of fresh eggs from the U.S. after being previously banned, but it is doing so only after a severe domestic...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

After a very active November and December, the soybean market came to a standstill toward the end of the year and has started 2017 with very little movemen...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets started the Sunday night session just fractionally higher, but wheat led them throughout the night with gains of 2-3 cents. It wasn’t the price tha...

A Few Key Numbers to Watch in Thursday’s USDA Reports

USDA will release its January series of reports on 12 January. They will include a plethora of numbers, but there are several key ones that the market will...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

During the demonetization period that began in November 2016, the price of cottonseed oil cake, a major source of protein for livestock in India, continued...

Taxes and Trade, Food; Nationalism; Skewed Sources

Contradicting President-elect Donald Trump, U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) announced this week on a radio program that there will be no border...

U..S. Winter Wheat Ratings and Argentina’s Acreage Estimates

Weather may be having an impact on U.S. hard red winter wheat, but another factor will also influence production in 2017. Meanwhile, Argentina's soybean an...

Market Commentary

Markets were soft overnight, led by weakness in the soy complex, and a small weekly export sales number this morning pushed prices lower. Wheat, though, sh...

Oilseed Highlights

Many of the soybeans that were inundated by the floods in Argentina will not survive, and it is almost too late to replant. While the situation is differen...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures trade overnight was mostly in the direction of lower prices with volume about average. The day session proved to be more active with...

Politics and Agriculture

The potentially murkiest policy questions facing the new Trump administration concern trade, an area where U.S agriculture has a very large stake. At its f...

Trump Trade with Russia and China

Russia and China are two significant export markets for the meat and poultry sector, and they have the potential to be even more so in the future. However,...

In a Name; Terms of Trade

A pending issue before U.S. FDA is whether plant-based foods such as soy milk, almond milk and rice milk can be called “milk,” and a similar fight is occur...

Trump versus China; Euro Stalingrad; Expectations of Trump

President-elect Donald Trump says he is going to stop China from “taking our jobs” and has hired a bevy of fellow China-bashers to execute the plan. Beijin...

Market Commentary

Traders may have paid limited attention to South American weather Tuesday as they returned from the long weekend, but it was front and center today. The re...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While grain exports from Russian seaports grew to 24.3 MMT in 2016 against 22.9 MMT the previous year, those from Ukrainian seaports were significantly hig...

China In-Country Analysis

The landed price of imported soybeans was $422/MT last week, up $3/MT from the week before, and that combined with amother factor to bring domestic crush m...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Predicted Food Trends: Will Meat Follow the Path of Beer?

A recent National Restaurant Association survey of chefs shows protein demand is likely to grow and change toward more specialty items. Could the evolution...

Market Commentary

Apparently, of more interest to traders than South American weather is the imminent rebalancing of index funds. Thus, Inter-market spreading was the story...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of Argentina issued a decree yesterday that reaffirmed an earlier decision regarding the export taxes on soybeans and soy products, and this...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

There has been quite a bit of comment that the new design of the Saudi Grains Organization (SGO) could greatly benefit foreign investors in Saudi Arabia’s...

Lighthizer Reactions; Locality Bullying

Politicians try all kinds of ways to benefit special interests, particularly domestic ones. Nationalism and localism are common and tend to distort trade...

A New Year and Old Markets

It is a new year, according to the calendar, but it would appear that grain and soy futures markets have transited seamlessly from the last one. However, a...

Milk Wars

Dairy producers are challenging use of the term “milk” for products such as soy milk, almond milk, rice milk, etc., and the plant-based beverage makers' ar...

First 100 Days

While Donald Trump has now been housed for many days at the Mar-a-Lago complex in Florida, the next three months are critical to the shape and substance of...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Prior to GOI’s elimination of the import duty in early December, wheat prices had reached a high of $354/MT in the New Delhi spot market. They have eased c...

Astonishing U.S. Corn Crop

The U.S. Grains Council just released its 2016/17 Corn Harvest Quality Report, and the analysis of the 2016 U.S. crop goes quite far toward explaining how...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed at the start of the last trading day for 2016. As of the close today, the soybean futures market was up almost $1.50/bushel for the year...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Retaliates on EU Beef Ban; Cold Storage Report

The decades-old U.S./EU beef trade dispute is back on the front burner as the U.S. decides to retaliate. Meanwhile, a USDA report, which showed meat and po...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Tail Wags; Unprincipled; Passing Grade Only

Russia’s cyber interference in the U.S. election was wrong, but removing some diplomats and blocking access to some buildings in the U.S. is hardly punishm...

Commodities Are Attractive Again

Commodities have become attractive to investors again, although not for reasons of portfolio diversification. Of the several factors that have combined to...

Market Commentary

Corn futures prices closed slightly higher in what was for the most part directionless, low volume trading, and wheat put in a rare performance as the mark...

Outlook for Soybeans in 2017

While it is impossible to know and probably foolish to speculate, this is a good time to look at what may happen in 2017 pertinent to the global soybean se...

Lopsided Analysis; Danger Year in Europe

Per the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, a copyright association assessment indicates that piracy in China is one of the highest in the world (over 90 percent). Th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

After yesterday’s vigorous across-the-board rally of grain and soy futures prices, traders wondered if today would be this holiday-shortened week’s Turnaro...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

According to Toleutay Rakhimbekov, director of the Agricultural Competence Center in the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, the volume of Kazakhstan’s grai...

China In-Country Analysis

U.S. ethanol exports to China have followed a similar trajectory to other U.S. food and agricultural exports for the first ten months of the year. The tota...

2017 U.S. Policy Forecast

By their essence, government policies subsidize or penalize various actors in the economy. Some of this will change, but the complex nature of the democrac...

Livestock Inventories

Although USDA’s Cattle on Feed report was in line with expectations, the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was not.WPI’s last Livestock Roundup (see Ag Perspe...

2016 and 2017

As the end of this year and the beginning of the next one nears, it is hard to resist looking back at what has occurred and speculating about what lies ahe...

Market Commentary

Traders returning from the Christmas holiday found that a measure of good cheer for market bulls had been spread around while they were away, and the overn...

Oilseed Highlights

While most years are eventful for the world soybean sector, it seems that 2016 was even more so than usual. A Most Eventful Year for the Soybean Sector As...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India’s capacity to crush corn for starch production could increase to 16,525 tons per day (TPD) by 2018, although that currently available is underused an...

Market Commentary

In the soy complex, funds continued to slowly liquidate their long positions as weather in Argentina has improved. Meanwhile, wheat markets continue to be...

Ag Transition Causing Jitters

Although it is unknown at this point who will be the new USDA secretary, another cabinet nominee is adding to the nervousness felt by some aggies. Now in t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Beef with EU; Change Agent; USDA Leadership

The U.S. won the beef hormone case against the EU seven years ago, but it has never been fully compensated - until perhaps now. Beef with EU The U.S. won t...

All I Want for Christmas Is…

News is sparse on this eve of the Christmas holiday weekend. However, no one really cares about that or markets today, so perhaps a Christmas wish list is...

Indonesia Down, India Next; Canadian Superiority

A WTO dispute settlement panel sided with the U.S. (and New Zealand) in a ruling that Indonesia’s food import licensing scheme is illegal. Washington needs...

Christmas Wishes 2016

The current poltical trend involving a nationalist populism and demands for change (however defined) around the world combined with other events provides a...

Oilseed Highlights

The director of Cuba’s Center for Agricultural Research of Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB) indicates that country may begin planting GM soybea...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading opened mixed, but prices soon turned slightly lower. They were then quietly lower in slack trade durig the day session until the soy comp...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Proximity; Inert versus Active

There are those that recommend dispersing federal agencies across the country with the belief that their financial largess will aid more communities than j...

China In-Country Analysis

 Because of recent government action that is impacting Chinese crushing facilities across more than 11 provinces and regions, the outlook for the coun...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

It was a quiet, low volume overnight session, and perhaps the most telling feature of today was the very narrow daily trading ranges across the board. Outs...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While Russia's milling wheat prices decreased across all regions, they grew slightly in Ukraine (in UAH expression) because of two factors. Meanwhile, Russ...

Ag Review: The Exit of Commodities Bear Market?

WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The Flour Milli...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s weakness carried over into the overnight session, and grain and soy markets found no comfort during the day session either. Technical traders c...

Trade Policy Lead; Japan’s Concessions; Deregulation

U.S. Commerce Secretary-designee Wilbur Ross has variously been described as a future major player, very intimately involved, or taking the lead in U.S. tr...

Potential Market Movers

There are several factors that might be grain and soy market movers in the foreseeable future, but markets may also face more unanswered questions with the...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

House Ag Committee Report on SNAP

House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway’s (R-Texas) top-to-bottom review of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), promised two...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Strong grain demand from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is overwhelming Russia’s port facilities,  pushing the government there to expand and...

Oilseed Highlights

An Argentine government proposal would require farmers to pay royalties on patented biotech seed for three years after the initial purchase, but the seed c...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The soy complex was soft in the Sunday session and stayed that way throughout today’s trading. Needed rainfall was received in parts of Argentina, which ha...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While the soybean market in Argentina remains quiet with no trades last week, there was demand for June at +$0.18N but no sellers. Today demand is at +$0.0...

Rain in Argentina; Bitter Cold in U.S. Winter Wheat Country

It’s not often that we are talking about weather markets in the days before the Christmas holiday, but there was one of sorts today in soybeans and wheat.I...

Demagoguery; Less for More; Keep Punke

Some American cities and counties have attempted to ban the cultivation of GM crops within their jurisdiction, but China’s giant corn-growing province, Hei...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar prices in Maharashtra may be dropping as new stocks become available at the market, but they could rise over the next few months because of one antic...

2017 Acres and Ending Supplies

Thoughts are quickly starting to shift toward the potential for 2017 acres and how that might translate into U.S. production and ending supplies in MY 2017...

Lopsided on China; Chef Sickness; European Trouble

President-elect Donald Trump’s phone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has upset not just Beijing but China experts in Washington as well as some...

Freedom Caucus Regulatory Rollback Proposal

While it was formed to block Republican leadership from compromising with President Obama on most issues, the conservative House Freedom Caucus is now swit...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed in relatively quiet trade overnight, and it was a low volume day with little in the way of fresh news to end the week. KC and Chicago wh...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA Publishes Long-Time Controversial GIPSA Rules

USDA’s GIPSA rules have been released, as promised, before President Obama leaves office. The rules have 60-day comment periods, which will expire in Febru...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in grain and soy futures was seemingly frozen in place by the soaring U.S. dollar. However, trading was a bit more active during the day se...

The Attack of the U.S. Dollar

With the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank signaling a hawkish approach to monetary policy over the next two-three years, the U.S. dollar is on a tear. However, it...

More Organic Grain; Last Agency Leader Named

The U.S. organic livestock products industry wants more organic certified feed, and U.S. grain growers would like to grow and sell organic grain for its pr...

Oilseed Highlights

Stats Canada reports that a record 1.77 MMT (65 million bushels) of soybeans were produced in Manitoba Province this year as farmers there continue to boos...

How Trump Negotiates; China Status; Transatlantic Volatility

In what ought to be informative for agricultural trade policy specialists, President-elect Donald Trump is revealing his approach to negotiations. It is hi...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy markets had little at stake in the Fed’s rate hike other than the potential impact it might have on the U.S. dollar. However, soyoil gain...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

While last week’s imported soybean price of $432/MT was a $1/MT improvement from the previous week,  the average crush margin on those imports f...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Sunflower seed bids started growing in Ukraine. They increased to $383-405/MT EXW and $407-422/MT CPT as FOB offers rose to $395-415/MT. Because of the rep...

Livestock Safe; No Tears for TPP; Only in DC

U.S. agriculture is hoping for less environmental regulation under Donald Trump’s presidency, but Barack Obama has not been totally unkind. Livestock Safe...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Turkey has announced a new $4 billion agricultural subsidy program that will cover 19 strategic crops. However, production of one in particular is neverthe...

A Potential Democratic Nominee for Agriculture Secretary

North Dakota Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is reportedly being considered for USDA secretary. What are some of the possible calculations behind this, a...

Market Commentary

The action in overnight trade, such as it was, occurred in the soy complex in response to Asian markets. As seems to be something of a pattern these days,...

Oilseed Highlights

Stine Seed, an Iowa-based company, plans to offer about 200 farmers the opportunity next year to save back biotech soybean seed for replanting. The program...

Surging World Grain and Oilseed Supplies

From a strictly fundamental perspective, the U.S. and world supply/demand balance appears to be quite bearish. To be sure, there is record or near-record d...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The milling wheat market in the Black Sea is firmer due to the stronger ruble and increasing demand from one particular country. Meanwhile, Algeria is in t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Other Oil Producers Join OPEC Agreement to Reduce Production

Oil markets today reacted to the latest production cutback agreement among OPEC and other oil-producing nations. The question remains whether OPEC’s plan w...

Market Commentary

Sunday markets started firm with early soybean futures trading as much as 10-11 cents higher, but that buying dissipated with all markets slightly lower to...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

It is too early to determine whether Argentina will have sufficient 12 percent protein wheat to fulfill the contracts already made. The lack of demand for...

No Letup in Export Pace

Today’s weekly export inspections report again showed very strong soybean exports for last week, but corn and wheat exports were also quite good. It’s diff...

Europe’s GMO Achievement; Unsustainable

Recent action by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) s a stunning rebuke to the critics of GM technology that despite their rants and tactics, scient...

Boo; China Trumped; Euro Angst

After bouncing along flat to declining since Labor Day, the Dow has since taken off post-election and added nearly 8 percentage points. While Richard Madig...

USDA Report and a Few Random Thoughts

While today's USDA December WASDE did not contain any significant changes to the bottom line of U.S. ending supplies, there were some adjustments to the wo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Trading volume was lethargic early today, but it improved significantly in the last hour of the session when prices started to rally. Accelerated buying in...

Continuing Resolution in Senate After House Passage

This is the day the federal government runs out of money. Yesterday the House passed a stopgap spending bill, which includes expanded funding for farm loan...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As GOI has now decided to completely remove the import duty on wheat, prices have dropped slightly after moving up prior to the announcement.. With Ukraini...

Market Commentary

Soybean and product prices pulled back in overnight trade. There were negative influences from declines for Dalian futures prices and Malaysian palm oil. M...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA recently released its annual long-term projections for major crops, and those for soybeans can be justifiably challenged for several reasons. USDA’s L...

A Fresh Look at U.S. Farms

Periodically, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) compiles a report that profiles the U.S. farming sector. The most recent one, released earlier this we...

Red Meat Production and Trade; New EPA Administrator

While red meat production levels are staying at near-record to record levels going into the last month of the year, there has also been a notable change in...

Trump Ag Policy; Transition; State-Owned Market Economy

Japan has now joined the U.S. and likely the EU in refusing to accept Beijing’s interpretation of WTO requirements that China now be treated as a “market e...

Slow Demand; Tricky Appointments; U.S.-EU; Dumping

Brussels is close to a free trade agreement with Tokyo, but the question is whether it will provide much of a boost to either economy. This is partly answe...

Market Commentary

Soybean and grain prices were little changed in overnight trading even though Dalian meal and soyoil futures continued their upward trek. Trading was also...

China In-Country Analysis

The average domestic corn price in China retreated even further in the first week of December, dropping RMB 11/MT ($1.60/MT) to RMB 1,689/MT ($245.50/...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's grain production is projected to show an increase in 2016, but the problems that  traders have had transporting stocks to the seaports conti...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

In light of recent action taken by Egypt's government regarding a certain tax together with the need to purchase feed ingredients, medicines, etc. from out...

Market Commentary

In overnight trading, soybeans continued to build on Monday’s gains with fuel provided by higher prices for Dalian’s soymeal and oil as well as another sto...

Who Will Run a Trump Administration USDA?

President-elect Trump has not yet picked a nominee to lead USDA, which is likely to be producer-friendly. However, the list of potential names remains leng...

Creating a Trend; Trade and Tax Policy

With low prices now burdening growers, researchers are calculating what tweaks can be made to extract something additional from the market. However, there...

China’s Continuing Corn Conundrum

Chinese corn reserves were built up over many years as a result of government efforts to support domestic corn prices. It is now attempting various approac...

Oilseed Highlights

The  government  of Ukraine plans to boost its efforts to prevent local farmers from planting GM soybeans. While no such soybean varieties have b...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Commerce Department Reviewing Sugar Agreement with Mexico

With a renegotiation of NAFTA high on the incoming Trump administration’s agenda, a new Commerce Department investigation may tee up sugar as one of the fi...

Soybean Demand Not Slowing

The soybean analysis of last Friday (see Ag Perspectives, 2 December) discussed the role of emotion as a driver of the soy complex, but another factor is r...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazilian farmers’ soybean sales have been significantly delayed this year due to a stronger real and weak CBOT. In the past few weeks, though, CBOT has be...

Market Commentary

Expanding concerns about hot, dry weather across parts of Argentina gave the soy complex new life Sunday evening after last week’s losses, and then a devel...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukrainian corn is offered at $165/MT FOB for December-February, which is roughly in line with U.S. stocks on a CNF basis to the main destinations in the Me...

Taiwan as Leverage; Bitter Spring with Mexico; Trump Gauge

The media initially accused Donald Trump of amateurism for talking to the Taiwanese president in violation of a 40-year-old protocol. It turns out, though,...

Rearview Mirror Policy; Foreign Aid and Trade

A common flaw is for new farm policy to be drafted based on immediate past market experience, and that is particularly true for dairy. A key agriculture ad...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India’s gross domestic product (GDP) was at a high of 7.3 percent in the second quarter, it is likely to be negatively impacted in the third and four...

Not Much Can Stop the Soybean Market

If there has ever been a market that has begged  to be sold over the past year or two, it is soybeans. In fact, most participants did exactly that, an...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed to slightly lower early in last night’s session, but they were trading steady to higher at the opening this morning. Corn traded higher...

Campaign Promises and Reality

Although President-elect Trump often railed against the Dodd-Frank legislation as a candidate and promised to do away with it, a full repeal is not likely...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Perhaps today’s market dynamics can best be described by the fact that Chicago and KC wheat futures prices posted yet more contract lows while soyoil contr...

Truth Revealed; Diverging Transatlantic Emissions

Pedro Marcilio of the Brazilian firm Participacoes SA admits that U.S. government funds have been used as production loans for Brazilian cotton farmers. No...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Although Russian grain exports have been lagging behind last year's level, the November volume is expected to show notable growth versus the same month las...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex markets traded mostly higher during the overnight session, helped along by the macro impact of the OPEC agreement to cut production a...

China In-Country Analysis

Given certain developments regarding soymeal and soyoil in November, some stockpiling in the near term makes sense. Nonetheless, the massive turnover and s...

Election Impact on the Farm Bill

A Farm Foundation debate today on prospects for the next farm bill, post the election of Donald Trump, brought much enlightenment and a variety of opinions...

Oilseed Highlights

The inability of farmers to use neonicotinoid insecticides along with poor weather in some areas resulted in EU rapeseed production falling 10.6 percent fr...

Gleanings from USDA’s Baseline Projections

Each year since 2000, USDA has produced baseline reports that project U.S. crop acreage and supply/demand balances for wheat, corn and soybeans for the 10...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

After trading higher for the last seven trading days, during which the January soybean contract jumped 70 cents higher, the market finally turned in overni...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The Egyptian government forecasts local aquaculture production, which currently meets 80 percent of the country’s consumption demand, will increase 35 perc...

More Beatings; China Retribution; Zombies

Mexico’s Finance Minister José Antonio Meade correctly warns that an overplayed effort to rewrite NAFTA would hurt the U.S. economy and not just his countr...

Natural Gas Overview

Warmer winter weather last year and to date this year is driving higher-than-normal natural gas storage inventories despite demand from the power sector, a...

Perhaps Politics Should Be Watched Instead of Weather

It’s beginning to look like national elections around the world will be as important to the direction of the markets as weather forecasts. With several loo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Strange Year in Politics

Surprise election outcomes in the U.S. and Europe as well as political chaos in South America have set the stage for potentially volatile foreign exchange...

Market Commentary

January soybean futures soared to gains of 18-19 cents last night before collapsing and trading lower at 9:30 A.M. this morning. However, that weakness was...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea milling wheat market was again firm last week on slow farmer selling and exporters’ short covering. The pace of exports from Russia remains t...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat quality has been an issue in Argentina for many years, spanning the entire supply chain. One problem is that many farmers don't know the quality of t...

Trade and Tax Policies Collision

Donald Trump complained about inequitable international tax systems during the campaign, and now congressional Republicans are entertaining a solution. How...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Wholesale wheat prices in New Delhi, the country’s key market, surged to Rs.23,916/MT ($346/MT) on 18 November from Rs.18,858/MT ($281/MT) on 18 October. T...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

While the expanding dryness that is starting to affect the 2017 U.S. hard red winter wheat production region has been covered in analysis here this week, t...

Losers Pay; Message Received; Arbitrary Standards

The WTO has several problems, but an important one is its understaffed, overworked Appellate Board (AB). While two new judges have recently been appointed,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures continued to set new highs for this postharvest on more evidence of no slowdown in export demand. However, it was a different story for cor...

China; More China; Food Fallacies; Inequality

Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) told Agri-Pulse to “Show me a nation that cannot feed itself, and I'll show you a nation in ch...

EPA Announces Final Biofuel Volumes

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today finalized the 2017 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for over...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While oilseed prices in Russia showed growth on average in the past week, those in Ukraine exhibited a different pattern in both the domestic and export ma...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

After an extremely slow start to 2016 and a modest recovery in the spring, U.S. food and agricultural exports to China have recovered nicely as a result of...

Market Commentary

The Pre-Thanksgiving futures market rally did take place, but it ws not in the way traders had imagined. The EPA surprised by announcing its final Renewabl...

Trump and Trade; China’s Designs; Climate Flip-Flops

Donald Trump says he will withdraw the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on day one of his presidency and instead "negotiate fair, bilateral tr...

Oilseed Highlights

A draft proposal submitted to the EU Commission recommends a 50 percent reduction in the use of biofuels in the transportation sector after 2020. This is b...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Economic Outlook

The supply of money held by the public has grown almost 47 percent since 2010 when compared with the size of the economy, and some estimates indicate that...

Market Commentary

It was once again a mostly green day of trading for grain and soy futures with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. The principal exceptions were soyoil a...

Soybean Market Exuberance

Yesterday’s soy complex market performance had many market watchers wondering what was going on. The clarity of hindsight suggests that the rally resulted...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Researchers in Kenya have said that planting GM maize could save up to $90 million annually in crop losses as well as lead to an additional production of 4...

Transition: USDA and World; Balkanized Agriculture

If many Americans barely understand why and what happened in the recent election, foreigners can be forgiven a similar challenge. International relations h...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southern Plains Turning Dry

Crop conditions across the U.S. have been so good that there simply hasn’t been any worry about moisture levels. Meanwhile, 2016 brought record U.S. winter...

Market Commentary

Unusual strength in Sunday night trading gave way to a sharply higher trading session for the soy complex. U.S. exports are well above USDA projections, le...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine soybeans started this week showing weaker basis. May shipment is offered at 20 SN with demand bidding at 15 SN, and June cargo is offered at +25...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Demand for Ukrainian wheat is still present in India. One vessel loaded in Bulgaria last week is also apparently destined there, and Russia has asked India...

Propane Outlook for the 2016/17 Winter Season

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has issued its Winter Fuel Outlook. It includes data regarding propane, the cost of which is a a major inp...

Transitional Crops; Dead Zone Policy; Huge Conspiracy

The Organic and Non-GMO Forum this week highlighted the conundrum hitting U.S. farmers as consumers change their preferences. However, a new farm bill init...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

New Strategy for the Lame-Duck Session

After seeming intent on bundling together certain regular appropriation bills as a series of “minibus” bills prior to the election, the Republican congress...

Market Commentary

Markets were generally mixed overnight, but they turned positive today and finished the week with moderate gains in soybeans, corn and wheat. This was an i...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's recent move against  the country's old currency notes is having a profound effect on farmers who bring their produce to market as well as truc...

Do the Math

Analysts are already starting to consider the mix of U.S. planted acres for 2017. Those acreage projections will be used as the base for making next year''...

Oilseed Highlights

Brazil’s biodiesel production is forecast  to change notably in 2017, based partially on a revision to the required blending level for biodiesel with...

More Tales from Export Sales

U.S. corn exports deviation from historic patterns has implications for what exports will be in the rest of the marketing year. Analysis of unshipped corn...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Retailers Featuring Beef; COF; Thanksgiving Dinner

With beef prices moderating from record highs in recent years, retailers are enjoying profitable margins and have returned to promoting beef with features,...

GMO Enforcement; Natural to a Fault

Ahead of next week’s meeting of the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, 37 members of the U.S. Senate asked Obama administration negotiators...

Market Commentary

Trading volume remained slow early in the day session with grain and soy prices muddling around on either side of Wednesday’s closes. The biggest feature d...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

A sudden increase in freight rates from the U.S. Gulf has made Chinese buyers nervous. U.S. FOB prices remain on par with Brazil’s, but certain issues rega...

Biofortified Maize and the Politics of GMOs

Conventionally-bred biofortified crops are improving the health of millions globally but will eventually be forced to rely on GM technology. Will activists...

Ag Review: Agribusiness Margins in the Face of Uncertainty

WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The Grain Indus...

New Trade Paradigm; Lesson in Geneva; Trump Impact

The election of Donald Trump is prompting a complete rethink of U.S. trade policy - some of it reasonable, and some of it not so much. New Trade Paradigm T...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's milling wheat prices continued to rise (in UAH expression) due to high demand from domestic and foreign buyers. Meanwhile, Russia's grain export...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures modestly extended Tuesday’s upturn in prices in slow overnight trading with several factors providing a considerable headwind that li...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

North Dakota Congressman Outspoken on Ag Policy

Representative Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) is becoming an outspoken leader in proposing new agricultural policy ideas, but his biggest reforms come in th...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

While the currency situation in Egypt seems to be a bit calmer this week, the general consensus among private sector importers is that grain imports will h...

Updating the U.S. Corn Outlook

The November WASDE's surprising increase in the estimated U.S. national average corn yield warrants a fresh look at the nation's supply/demand dynamics.As...

Trumped Farm Bill; Margin Winners

Typically, political party insiders negotiate a “platform” of policy platitudes intended to inform voters and guide the presidential nominees on the prefer...

Oilseed Highlights

 China’s Global Times, the state-run newspaper, published an editorial warning of bad consequences for the U.S. if the Trump administration imposes re...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices were choppy and mixed overnight with corn and soybeans lower and wheat slightly higher in quiet trade. However, the day sessio...

Farm Bill Issues and the 2018 Election

With the election over and all eyes in the ag sector on the 2018 Farm Bill, it is worth looking ahead to the 2018 mid-term elections and what role they wil...

China In-Country Analysis

After a strong summer, U.S. pork exports to China came in at 23,905 MT for September with a total value of $50.15 million. These figures were significantly...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The exportable surpluses of milling wheat in Ukraine and Russia are estimated at 16 MMT and 30 MMT, respectively. However, weather conditions during the ne...

Market Commentary

Several notable factors were not sufficient on their own to bring enough buyers to the soybean market to offset the fund selling. Much of this weakness is...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

It’s All about Asia, and It Will Stay That Way

Southeast Asia is the location of nearly all of the growth and market action and will continue to be so for a long time, which is certainly no surprise to...

Europe Trumped; Supply Destruction

Germany’s Prime Minister Angela Merkel, who set off a political eruption in Europe with her near unilateral decision on Syrian refugees, welcomed incoming...

Market Commentary

A volatile week finished with a retreat in the soy complex, driven by rumors of China forcing a fund out of a long position on the Dalian exchange and farm...

The Week That Was

The surprising events of this week created substantial market volatility that will not soon be erased. Normally, the winter months are quiet for commodity...

Erroneous Trump Policy Speculation

In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s victory the whole cadre of Washington analysts, journalists and special interests are playing the speculation game...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices.Note: Due to the Veterans Day holiday, the CFTC Committment of Traders data will be published Monday, 14 Nove...

Trump's USDA

The outlook for agriculture under a Trump Administration includes a move away from “foodie” issues pushed by the Obamas and farmers in prominent D.C. posit...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The Government of India’s surprise demonetization of the Rupee has financial impacts rippling through the Indian economy, though commodity prices remain re...

Oilseed Highlights

The big crop was made bigger by USDA’s latest report. The U.S. soybean yield is now the highest on record in the world. Argentina’s soybean crop forecast w...

Into the Unknown

The election is over but the guesswork on what President-elect Trump will do upon entering the White House is just beginning. Possible issues at the forefr...

Wrong Political Lesson; Real Cheese Please

EU leaders are warning that Brexit and Trump’s victory are “warning signs” to liberal democracies though efforts to suppress such events...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

LIVESTOCK ROUNDUP: Election, WASDE and Red Meat Exports

Following Trump’s election victory, cattlemen are pledging to work with the new administration on issues from trade to sage grouse, though advancing TPP wi...

Market Commentary

The soy complex took off in the overnight session, fueled by a rally in Palm Oil futures and Asian veg oil supply tightness. Corn and wheat followed soybea...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The record U.S. crop is stifling demand for Brazilian beans and negligible quality differences between Argentinian soybeans and those from the U.S. PNW are...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia’s grain harvest will be the largest in 38 years which sent Russian grain prices were lower this week, adding competitive fuel to world markets. Ukra...

Market Commentary

The U.S. Presidential election and the November WASDE proved to be a vicious combination that sent markets – from corn to oil to equities – into a tailspin...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trump Transition; Environment Election; Economy and Trump

The most shocking vote in recent history is over and efforts will begin to stitch together the Trump Administration. Other election news includes Washingto...

2018 Farm Bill Baseline Outlook

Falling crop prices and net cash farm income are juxtaposed against falling government farm program payments which will create lively debate when the new C...

Oilseed Highlights

A ban on GM ingredients in animal feeds passed Poland’s lower house of parliament and, if passed in the Senate, could disrupt the nation’s animal industrie...

Market Commentary

Following yesterday’s “relief rally” in equities, grain and oilseed markets exploded higher today. Malaysian palm oil and Chicago soyoil led grains higher...

Non-Election Topics

Americans are growing weary of political discussions and are looking forward to non-election topics. Fortunately, U.S. grain exports, La Nina weather, and...

New Tax Magnet; Pinging Barriers

Food may be replacing fossil fuels as the flavor of the day for taxes while the WTO’s new system for reporting regulatory barriers to trade may need to be...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The new floating Egyptian pound is likely to slow markets in the near term as traders and end-users adjust... Regional Updates MIDDLE EAST/MEDITERRANEAN CO...

Market Commentary

Weekend election news sent outside markets sharply higher while fund buying boosted the soy complex. Corn and wheat markets were softer despite large volum...

China In-Country Analysis

China’s bifurcated corn market continues with northeastern prices falling and southern prices rising on supply tightness. Chinese soybean crushing margins...

Lame Duck Agenda

Tomorrow’s elections, for both the U.S. President and various Congressional seats, has strong implications on what will be accomplished during the coming l...

Another USDA Report, No Surprises Likely

The November WASDE report may be overshadowed by the election results but important international production revisions are possible. Dry weather in South A...

Sugar Tax Election; TPP Dead; Precision Subsidies

Taxes on sugary soft drinks are on several municipal ballots tomorrow, but will they achieve their desired results? Meanwhile, TPP is practically dead and...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Black Sea wheat prices are firming and offers in Ukraine are difficult to find while Russian prices have increased $10 in one month. Black Sea corn markets...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Every market has been very tentative this week, and today was no exception. Trading volume was average ahead of the weekend and the U.S. presidential elect...

Farm Groups Start Asking Questions About Next Farm Bill

The 2014 Farm Bill doesn’t expire until 2018, but deliberations on the next one will start in earnest when the new Congress convenes in January 2017. In pr...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The market yard price of corn in Nizamabad has dropped 11.06 percent from the start of the season to $201/MT, and the NCDEX spot price there also decreased...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Winter Wheat Acres Going Lower

Record hard red winter wheat yields are not enough to keep 2016 winter wheat plantings from declining, and there are several reasons for the drop in acreag...

Uncertainty; Too Many Cooks

Global economic growth and trade have been slower in recent years, and Steven J. Davis of the University of Chicago can tell you why.   Policy Uncert...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets appear to be adopting a cautious approach to next Tuesday’s election and next Wednesday’s November WASDE. Fund managers are taking so...

Managing the Pork Supply; Red Meat Production

With hog slaughter up this year, there is an excess of pork on the market that will affect prices, especially going into the Thanksgiving holiday when reta...

Free Trade and the Disbelievers

Distrust of trade agreements is a symptom of a growing, classic populist belief that the trade deck is stacked in favor of big multinational corporations a...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of Malaysia today announced it would boost the mandatory biodiesel blend requirement on 1 December. While it will rise from 7 to 10 percent...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina remains active in the new crop soybean market. Its last trade was performed yesterday at $0.96 SN CNF for June shipment, and offers keep going lo...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Perhaps the most interesting feature from the overnight trading sessions so far this week is that while trading volume for grains and the soy complex has b...

Creating Competitors; Obesity; TPP Votes; Outlook

As net agricultural exporting countries have worked to improve their access to foreign markets, the less competitive nations have increased their efforts t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian grain markets again followed the trends of previous weeks as milling grain prices continued to grow. Meanwhile, Russia exported 354,700 MT of grain...

Market Commentary

The latent bullish trends that the soybean and corn markets were working to establish got blown apart today, and the technical momentum is now pointed down...

Oilseed Highlights

With Chinese investors increasingly soured on stocks, they have shifted to other sectors such as calligraphy, antiques, art and commodities. One target of...

Protein Rebound

Protein is trending again among diet fads and nutritional advice, but per capita consumption has been moving downward, largely due to retail prices. Howeve...

Potential Market Movers

With the fall harvest so far along the downhill slope, it is a good time to step back and take a look at things that might become potential market movers i...

Fire Hakim

Conventional agriculture is accustomed to seeing the distortions professed about biotechnology by anti-GMO activists, but reading such in the New York Time...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Egypt has set up a new wheat import inspection system that seems to be giving some confidence to traders and tender participants. It will be under the auth...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

With the landed price of imported soybeans rising to RMB 2,935.74/MT ($433/MT) last week, oil and meal prices were increased. Despite that, the average cru...

CETA’s Meaning; Signs of EU Change; Win Win

By successfully pushing through the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada, EU officials showed more moxie than their American count...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

It’s Hard to Make Some People Happy

Ironically, the most protected industry in U.S. agriculture is complaining that its farmers are disadvantaged, and it makes an emotional appeal with an eco...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Last week's U.S. export inspections were again very big last week, and that highlights the ability to move grain and oilseeds from the interior to export f...

Market Commentary

The grain and oilseed markets were quietly mixed in overnight trading. Wheat was actually the upside leader last night and today. Corn and soybeans were sl...

Soybean Economy

The last quarter's GDP growth was the highest since the third quarter of 2015 and more than twice the average rate for this year’s first two quarters. One...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's peanut-in-shell MSP for the 2016/17 season was fixed at $629/MT in June 2016. However, GOI’s first advanced estimates of September 2016 have projec...

Food Price Deflation Reflects Commodity Markets

Yesterday USDA released its Food Price Outlook Report for September, which is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,...

What Might 2017/18 Look Like?

Estimates of what U.S. farmers might plant in 2017 are already emerging, although it is very early to play this game as the 2016 corn and soybean harvests...

Market Commentary

Markets were slightly lower overnight with no fresh news to push prices higher heading into one of the last harvest weekends of this year. Wheat still has...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading built on the momentum provided by yesterday’s firmer closes. The day session saw prices mostly stay in the green, although some choppines...

CETA Angst; Nuking Equality

Canada is a small country next to the EU, but at this time it shares its head of state with the Brexit redcoats. Perhaps this is behind the fact that nothi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trends in World Trade

If U.S. grain and soybean exports are of key importance to futures market action, it follows that world trade in these commodities is as well.We have often...

Oilseed Highlights

The National Assembly of France today rejected a Green Party-proposed amendment to the 2017 budget bill, which the group had sought as a way to address its...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina again traded a full May shipment last week at +99 SN CNF China, a decrease from the last trade at +110 SN for an April shipment. Considering that...

Market Commentary

Futures prices found buyers early during the overnight trading session, and they began to edge higher with the soy complex in the lead. The green numbers c...

Dumb Parents; Gibberish Labeling; WTO and Wallonia

The New York State Congress of Parents and Teachers has apparently decided to jump the shark by literally opposing GMOs in school meals, citing overwhelmin...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's mllling wheat prices increased, mainly due to international factors such as the higher purchase price on the GASC tender and lower-than-forecast...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Terminology; EU Irony; Trade De-Partisanization

Voting in the U.S. Congress had been increasingly partisan with Republicans favorable and Democrats opposed to free trade deals. Now the 2016 presidential...

Corn Market Dynamics

Having become confident that it has a good handle on total U.S. corn supplies for 2016/17, the market has already begun to switch its focus to the next two...

Oilseed Highlights

The All India Poultry Exporters Association wants the government to either ban the importation of chicken meat produced with biotech feed ingredients or al...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures prices were mixed, but little changed in rather quiet trade overnight. What excitement there was came from Malaysian palm oil, which...

Election 2016: A Look Two Weeks Out

The U.S. election is two weeks from today, so this seems like as good a time as any for a preview. Voters will choose a president, all 435 House members an...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The Kenyan government has announced that it is raising the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) purchase price for maize by about 22 percent. However,...

Growth in Cheaper U.S. Crude Oil

As the market recovered this year, there has been growth in certain short positions on the part of producers and merchants. This could well suggest that U...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets opened slightly lower Sunday evening, but it didn’t take long before soybean futures turned positive. November soybean futures traded as much as 16...

Minority Rights; Anti-Biotech Nonsense

The relative power balance of minority opinion versus the majority is the tipping point between successful democracy and future Brexits. Extreme Minority R...

China In-Country Analysis

China’s domestic corn prices showed some volatility last week between northern and southern provinces as deep corn processors in the latter lacked sufficie...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The market in Romania and Bulgaria is very quiet. While the domestic wheat price has increased about $10 over the last three weeks, farmers are still reluc...

Not Again in My Lifetime

 Many farmers across the northern Plains, the new Corn Belt, are saying that they won’t see yields like this year's corn crop again in their lifetimes...

Market Commentary

Markets were steady in quiet overnight trade. Corn and soybean futures gained back some of yesterday’s losses to start today’s action. Corn was steady to h...

RVOs Rule Proposal Sent to White House OMB

On Wednesday of this week, the U.S. EPA submitted its proposed RVOs rule for biofuel use under the RFS to the White House OMB. The question that remains is...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Demand Train Still Gaining Momentum

It is still tough to find anyone who is even leaning toward the bullish side of the ledger, but it is also becoming difficult to ignore the building demand...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Keeping food prices down is key for Indian households. In order to do that and also maintain low inflation, the government has taken a step that would allo...

Mistruths about Trade

Washington’s famous think tanks have opined on the future of trade policy, and the analysis is far more thoughtful than the complete falsehoods asser...

Market Commentary

The overnight session was a relatively quiet one with corn and soybean prices trading a little higher and following up on yesterday’s firm finish while whe...

Oilseed Highlights

While USDA is forecasting a record U.S. soybean yield this year of 54 bushels/acre (3.63 MT/hectare), there is a great deal of evidence that it may be even...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

While USDA is forecasting a record U.S. soybean yield this year of 54 bushels/acre (3.63 MT/hectare), there is a great deal of evidence that it may be even...

India’s Chutzpah; Ignoring Elephant; Regime Change

Agriculture specifically is unlikely to be much affected by the U.S. election, but there are tangential issues with implications for the sector. Chutzpah T...

The La Nina Dance

After one of the strongest El Ninos on record was officially declared over last June, the CPC issued a La Nina watch. That was then cancelled in early Sept...

Oilseed Highlights

While USDA is forecasting a record U.S. soybean yield this year of 54 bushels/acre (3.63 MT/hectare), there is a great deal of evidence that it may be even...

Hog Backlog; Cattle on Feed; Cattle Futures Contract

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Feed wheat and feed barley FOB offer prices decreased in Ukraine but remained steady in other terms of trade. Meanwhile, milling wheat bid prices grew on t...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Despite the continuous drop in basis in the U.S., Brazil and Argentina have decided to compete by lowering their levels against USG and PNW. The main compe...

Clinton versus Trump on Ag; Chemo-Marketing

Differences, nuances and agreement marked the outcome of a session today between former USDA Deputy Secretary Kathleen Merrigan representing the Clinton ca...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices traded back and forth in overnight trading. Corn and wheat futures traded unchanged to a little lower, while soybeans were slightly hi...

Oilseed Highlights

U.S. farmers are in the process of harvesting the largest soybean crop ever along with a record yield. In many states, they are seeing yields far above ave...

Market Commentary

Markets traded both sides during the overnight session as wheat, corn and soybean prices held near the high ends of their recent trading ranges. After grai...

USDA Trying to Wrap Up Six Years’ Work on GIPSA Rule

USDA has sent the White House OMB a draft of new livestock marketing and contracting regulations under GIPSA. Some of the controversial provisions in the o...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Tanzania reports that its first official GM maize field trials, which involve a white drought-resistant variety, began last week and are expected to take a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Soybean Market Dynamics

One might ask why the big crop/big demand year of 2016/17 is much different from 2015/16 when there was an almost record U.S. soybean crop absorbed by then...

Market Commentary

Soybeans rallied strongly today as global vegoil prices spiked early. NOPA’s report highlighting ending stocks and crushing rates added to the bullish fuel...

The Cost of the Coming Winter

NOAA’s forecast that the coming winter will be colder than last year’s means energy costs will be on the rise. Livestock producers in the Midwest will cons...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Black Sea wheat and corn prices are firmer this week, driven by the futures rallies in Paris, Chicago, and other global markets. Additionally, Ukrainian ra...

China In-Country Analysis

Falling soymeal stocks and increasing soyoil prices, combined with inexpensive imported soybeans, have boosted Chinese crushing margins recently. U.S. soyb...

Random Thoughts from a North Asian Wheat Conference

From China’s non-WTO compliance to “gluten free” marketing and excess shuttle-train capacity, a recent wheat conference for North Asian wheat buyers reveal...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Strong upward price action occurred in the grains and oilseed complex today as bullish export news outweighed the week's record-breaking supply news. Fund...

Market Commentary

After yesterday’s highly anticipated October WASDE led to futures prices ultimately sliding lower, trading volume during the overnight trading session was...

Ag Review: Industry Insights and Outlook for Q4 2016

The Grain Industry Farmland values have been among the last to experience the impact of low commodity prices, but the downward pressure has now begun. Oils...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI has undertaken the task of integrating the Regulated Agriculture Market Yards, which provide pricing for farmers’ produce bought in the market yard. Th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Wheat, Wheat Everywhere, but Not a Drop to Eat

U.S. wheat ending supplies and another record world wheat crop in 2016 are all being affected by one particular issue.The USDA quarterly stocks report rele...

Implications of USDA-Projected Dairy Growth

Over the past 15 years, U.S. dairy exports have expanded more than fivefold, reaching a record $7.1 billion in 2014, and the longer-term USDA 10-year forec...

Federal Preemption Needed

Massachusetts may soon join California in dictating livestock production methods in a manner that greatly disrupts the farming industry. This is all certai...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

The Aftermath of the October WASDE

While the October 2016 WASDE contained no fundamental surprises, it did not lack for items of interest.As noted yesterday, the October 2016 WASDE contained...

Oilseed Highlights

Yesterday’s USDA report indicates that U.S soybean exporters and processors are going to have a large supply to work with in the year ahead, and one partic...

Market Commentary

After yesterday’s highly anticipated October WASDE led to futures prices ultimately sliding lower, trading volume during the overnight trading session was...

Brazil GMO Seed; Africa Led Astray; Polling Now

Brazilian Secretary of Agribusiness and International Relations Odilson Ribeiro Silva has approved the Chamber of Foreign Trade allowing the importation of...

USDA Buying More Cheese; Trade in 2017

China’s enormous influence on the pork market is now greater than ever as USDA is projecting that the country will account for more than 25 percent of glob...

Market Commentary

After yesterday’s highly anticipated October WASDE led to futures prices ultimately sliding lower, trading volume during the overnight trading session was...

GI Challenge; Funding Politics

The Canada-EU Trade agreement is on the docket for discussion this week in Brussels, and  the U.S. dairy industry is now reportedly preparing to chall...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russia's domestic prices for 3rd and 4th grade soft mililng wheat increased for the most part during 3-9 October, and 5th grade feed wheat prices dropped a...

Market Commentary

USDA’s October production and supply/demand estimates were relatively close to expectations and certainly not bullish. In the immediate wake of today's rep...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

The old crop corn market remains totally quiet with a few sellers ready to trade at $0.90 over December futures for October and November and with a few cen...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

It is well known that people tend to eat higher quality diets containing more animal protein and vegoils when they migrate from farms to the cities. That h...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets did very little on this day before the release of the October WASDE. Prices traded on both sides of yesterday’s closes and mostly settled with only...

TPP More Likely; No Food Policy Election

Conventional wisdom holds that when both major presidential candidates oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), it makes congressional consideration and...

Some Pre-Report Thoughts and Other Matters

Markets are of course fixated on tomorrow’s WASDE from USDA and the updated yield and production estimates for the U.S. 2016 corn and soybean crops it will...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

High maize prices in South Africa have in turn pushed up local poultry prices, leading to an expected notable increase in poultry imports this year and an...

October USDA Reports

The trade talk has been about better soybean and smaller corn yields than expected since these harvests got underway. The latter yield, though, would have...

Market Commentary

Corn was mostly steady overnight, but it turned higher today and closed quite strong. The corn market still has a significant fund short position. Meanwhil...

Policy and Technology

Much the way Washington and Brussels help their respective main aircraft builders, Boeing and Airbus, the EU and the U.S. subsidize their respective agricu...

China In-Country Analysis

Despite flooding in several provinces over the summer, there was a drought in Heilongjiang, the bedrock of China’s domestic soybean industry, which has imp...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Food Policy Poll

Given the growing opinion in support of regulation, perhaps the most interesting poll result was when participants were asked to rank their level of trust...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria remains very quiet as farmers are not selling at current market prices. They are still holding a large volume of s...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's domestic oil industry had asked GOI to raise both the duty on imported oil along with the differential between the crude and refined oils duties to...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Record soybean yields and soybean markets that have held relatively strong have turned the Corn Belt (and northern Plains) farm economic outlook from grim...

Trade Adjustment; Marshmallows; Chem Attack

One U.S. agency's review of restrictions on a particular  herbicide and state action regarding chemical spraying ultimately signal that food security...

Market Commentary

Markets traded steady to fractionally higher overnight in very light volume. Today saw a consolidation type of trading ahead of the weekend and before next...

Farm Program Spending Outpacing Other Entitlement Programs

USDA announced this week that more than $7 billion will be paid out in farm support payments under the new ARC and PLC programs versus approximately $5 bil...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Harvesting Cash from Naiveté

By awakening consumers to the mundanity of the food business, one food critic and his ilk have spawned new Big Ag profits with meaningless but profitable p...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Comeback from Avian Flu; Hogs and Pigs; FSIS Label Guidance

The two commodity sectors impacted by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have made a comeback. Meanwhile, USDA’s FSIS has released a guidance documen...

Oilseed Highlights

Reports of very high soybean yields across the Midwest continue. However, it also is clear that many farmers saw substantial losses this year because of a...

Market Commentary

Once again, overnight trade in grain and soy futures was characterized by low volume and limited price movement. The day session found more selling pressur...

An Anniversary of Sorts

Much has happened in the 20 years that have passed since the first genetically modified (GM) soybean crop was harvested in commercial quantities by U.S. fa...

Cold War in Economics

In the post-Cold War through pre-Great Recession timeframe, the Western “neoliberal consensus” for economic policy took over the world like a tsunami. Now...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's milling wheat market was rather stable last week. Domestic traders’ bids grew because of rather active demand, mainly in the bottom segment, to $...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy markets were mixed overnight in slow trade. Prices traded both sides of yesterday’s closes but never moved very far from them. However, the d...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

There were almost no soybean trades in Argentina this past week. Demand has been showing up mostly for November and December in search of cheap offers. How...

Trump’s Trade Policy: A Tax Increase

A white paper with a detailed breakdown of Donald Trump’s economic plan was released last Thursday by two of his campaign’s senior economic policy advisors...

Market Commentary

Corn futures prices were buoyed by the market’s ability to once again trade and close above the $3.43 technical support level for December corn. Meanwhile,...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

While the recent ergot issue in Egypt appears to be resolved, the government's announcement this past week regarding changes to the origin and destination...

A Snapshot of the U.S. Wheat Outlook

For the past several years, the U.S. wheat supply/demand outlook and U.S. wheat prices did not mean a great deal to the world market. Cheaper wheat was ava...

China Risks Relations; Future of China Relations

China seeks treatment as a market economy, and yet its top-down policies such as the Textile Industry Development Plan reveal the extent to which it will t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of Argentina yesterday announced the soybean export tax will not be reduced by 5 percent as promised on 1 January due to financial difficult...

Upon Further Review

The 30 September USDA quarterly stocks reports didn’t contain any hidden bullish or bearish news for the corn and soybean markets. However, there a few iss...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Low Substance; Fig Leaf; Labels; GMO Embargo

In hopes of spurring support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), some U.S. agriculture groups highlight the fact that the EU is continuing to negotiat...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The wheat market in Romania and Bulgaria is extremely quiet. No trades have been reported in recent weeks except for one Moroccan tender as farmers are unw...

China In-Country Analysis

With the Mid-Autumn Harvest Festival in close proximity and the National Day scheduled to run through the first week of October, market data has been limit...

Pressure on the Biodiesel Tax Credit

At the moment, there is political inertia on a tax extender package. In part, this is because last year’s Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes (PATH) Act ad...

Market Commentary

While markets were steady overnight in light volume trade, corn and soybean markets started to firm at today’s opening. Wheat, on the other hand, couldn’t...

Crop Insurance Worries for Wheat

The RMA employs the FN rating to reduce the APH yields used for crop insurance policies. This year’s problem with the FN scores is in addition to the low y...

Corn Fight; Leverage; Aggie at EPA

African countries attending a conference this past week in Washington on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) pushed back on a U.S. suggestion tha...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

At the start of the wheat season, it was thought in India that international prices could rise if large volumes of wheat were to be imported. That has not...

USDA Quarterly Stocks Report

The September WASDE soybean ending supply estimate was 195 million bushels, and the trade was looking at today’s stocks number to see if carry-in soybean s...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed to lower overnight in light trading volume. Wheat and corn opened lower this morning ahead of the USDA reports, but the soy complex star...

Market Commentary

Trading ahead of tomorrow’s USDA reports produced mixed results. Those reports coincide with the end of the quarter for noncommercial-managed funds, a time...

New Trade Policy; Stop the Pests

In a critique of U.S. trade policy, Congressman Sander Levin (D-Michigan) correctly asserts that the public perception problem with trade will not go away...

Odds and Ends

The eve of another important report from USDA, namely tomorrow’s 1 September quarterly stocks plus the final small grain production summaries, presents a g...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Hogs and Pigs Report; Cold Storage

USDA will release its quarterly Hogs and Pigs report tomorrow. If expectations bear out, slaughter capacity could become very tight in November and Decembe...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentina's soybeans showed some movement this week in the new crop market with one cargo  traded at +43 SN for a 15 April position. Meanwhile, Brazil...

Fracking and Farming; Wasted Effort; Megafarms

Opponents key in on two or three generalized arguments against it, but there are dozens of specific outcomes of the TPP that are better than the status quo...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Although the Russian grain market continued to follow the trends of the previous week, there were two new influencing factors. Meanwhile, an analysis of 20...

Market Commentary

Crude oil’s excitement of today did not spill over into grain or soy complex markets. Meanwhile, soybean export sales totaling 343,000 MT and the reports o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Oilseed Highlights

The U.S. soybean harvest has been delayed by heavy rains, and the key states affected include North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Wh...

Market Commentary

Corn futures prices traded lower early to near a multi-week low and then recovered to finish with a gain of a couple of cents. The day’s trading range was...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Kenya reports that local maize and maize meal prices are dropping slightly as the local harvest has boosted supplies. However, maize imports are still need...

Wheat’s Struggles

Historically small wheat acreage should result in sharply reduced production, which would seem likely to help lower burdensome wheat supplies for 2017/18...

From the Campaign Trail

Last night’s first presidential debate of the general election campaign did not include any mention of agriculture or agricultural policy – as was to be ex...

Urban Pastoralization; Healthy Labeling

In an effort to get more concrete poured on top of soil, the U.S. has had rural development subsidies for decades, and now there will be the opposite, urba...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Abenomics; Trump Deficit; CAP Conflict

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe introduced today his envisioned economic policy. It is mostly a rehash of prior commitments but now with a $277 billion...

Market Commentary

Corn steadily lost ground today on fund selling and some expectations that farmers will have to sell some bushels as the corn harvest starts to gain some m...

What the Fed Likely Will Do

Although the Fed did not increase interest rates at its last meeting, just as it hasn’t since December 2015, certain factors suggest a rate hike will very...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

Shuttle rail secondary market values have been rising for weeks and are now trading at a $1,000-2,000/car premium to tariff for October and November. They...

China In-Country Analysis

The estimated nationwide soymeal inventory totaled 512,000 MT as of 23 September, down 40,000 MT (-7.26 percent) from the week before and 467,200 MT lower...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The first advance estimates for India’s 2016/17 kharif production have been released, and they indicate a bumper crop this year. However, the trade believe...

Weather Still a Factor

It has been an interesting year in crop weather - to say the least - and somewhat ironic that instead of hot, dry weather being the problem around the worl...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

DDGS Duties; Rulemaking; Fat; Debate

The announcement that Beijing will impose a 33.8 percent antidumping duty on imports of DDGS from the U.S. was not a surprise, although there is also anoth...

Brinksmanship on the FY 2017 Continuing Resolution

Emergency funding for the water crisis in Flint, Michigan, has now bogged down the CR and is leading to the political brinksmanship in Congress. However, a...

Market Commentary

Markets were weak overnight with soybeans leading prices lower, and that weakness continued into today’s session. There was some talk about soybean/corn sp...

Oilseed Highlights

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang jointly announced yesterday in Ottawa that the two countries have reached an agreemen...

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